Together We Once Wore Grey

 

I was thinking about the 2018 Padres the other day. There's the joke that men think about the Roman Empire constantly, but I can bet you nobody thinks about the 2018 Padres. There are names on that team that just shouldn't be spoken. Christian Villanueva. Joey Lucchesi. Carlos Asuaje. They had a guy play in all 162, but he only hit .250 and most of you probably don't remember who even did that. It was dire. Positively dire. 

And yet a youth movement was beginning to brew. The people that don't remember those dreary-ass end of the 2010s Padres teams remember that there were a ton of prospects that popped up around then and looked to take over, and...most of them were dealt before the Seidler runs. People like Nick Margevicius, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Ty France  and Luis Urias. They were even more prominent in 2019, when the biggest prize of the farm system, Fernando Tatis Jr., took to the majors like a fish to water and, despite an injury costing him a chunk of the season, almost singlehandedly revitalizing the team. 

And now you look at the Padres and they're almost unrecognizable from that scrappy, homegrown 2019 squad. First of all they took back the brown and gold, that was a great move heading into 2020, I'm glad Machado and Tatis only had one seeing wearing those unmemorable navy and greys. But, as I alluded to, pretty much every youth piece the Padres had in that 2018-19 era got dealt. It's really just Tatis and Adrian Morejon, a guy who's evaded trades by just not being healthy til now, left. It's rare for a team to sell almost the entirety of the farm system and still make it deep into the playoffs, but the Padres have done this, and are still competitors.

Tatis, though, still feels like an odd figure in the development of this team. This will be his sixth season, and his age 26 season, and while he already has a cumulative 21.7 WAR, the stardom that Tatis was promised still seems slightly distant. It's not that he hasn't performed well, but he's never gone a season without missing at least some time, he was out for the Padres' 2022 NLCS run, and he was never exactly exonerated after testing positive for PEDs. Moving Tatis to the outfield in 2023 did boost his star power, and his power numbers last year were welcome, but he hasn't hit .300 since his rookie season, he's hovering around the .276 zone as a career average, and the injury last season robbed him of finally making an impact. He's still one of the best in the league, yeah, but I don't know if Tatis has delivered anything as powerful as his pre-suspension material. 

I do think Tatis will have a good season, but I get the clearest Juan Gonzalez vibes from him. Talented, capable of high highs, but the drawbacks are also unmistakably there. 

Meanwhile, let's have a look at where some of the other late 2010s Padres prospects have ended up, and if they're in any way comparable to Tatis right now.

A's: Luis Urias had a couple of years as an infield starter with the Brewers, then when that didn't pan out he bounced around as an extra piece. With Sacramento, he has a chance to be a depth infielder, and if his bat shows up the A's would greatly appreciate another power piece.

Blue Jays: Eric Lauer, a couple years removed from an injury, is still kicking around the league. He was decent enough in an appearance for the Jays. No clue if they have room for him though. They definitely don't have any in the rotation. 

Brewers: Manuel Margot's 2024 with Minnesota was not the greatest step forward, especially after years of being a reliable utility bat in Tampa. The Brewers plan to start Margot, but several of the outfield options have more versatility and more recent success. Odds are he wriggles his way through, but is he anything close to where he was?

Cardinals: Phil Maton has bounced around recently, but enjoyed postseason success with Houston and New York. The Cardinals took a flier on him a couple days ago, they could use established bullpen guys. Not sure if he makes the team, but if he does he could be a decent piece still. 

Diamondbacks: Josh Naylor just capped off a run of excellent seasons as an 1B/DH piece in Cleveland, cementing his status not only as a great power hitter but also a dangerous contact bat. The Guardians parting ways with him seems like a dumb move, as is putting him in Phoenix, where he fits right into the vacant 1B position that Christian Walker left. The D-Backs need guys like him, and if they seek to compete again this year I see Naylor factoring highly into things. Very satisfying to see Naylor find his full potential after his early days in San Diego scraping the surface of it.

Giants: Joey Lucchesi's comeback with the Mets was halted by the continued presence of injury luck. The Giants are seeing if he has anything in the tank. If anything he'll be a minor league depth option. Kinda sad to say he peaked with the 2018 Padres.

Guardians: Austin Hedges continues to be one of the most beloved defensive catchers in the game despite not doing a damned thing on defense. He will continue to platoon with Bo Naylor until Bo learns to hit more consistently. 

Mariners: Andres Muñoz was an all-star last season, proved he could work the ninth as well as provide consistent relief, and is very high on the M's relief depth chart going into 2025. Of everyone here, Munoz might have the highest chance for exceptional output, despite probably not getting the credit if he does so.

Marlins: Cal Quantrill had a great start with the Rockies last year but fell off hard. The Marlins could give him a shot if enough of their starting options aren't ready for April, but Alcantara, Weathers and Cabrera rank ahead of him, and Max Meyer and Valente Bellozo factor heavily for rotation spots as well. 

Mets: Luis Torrens was a backup catcher with the Mets last season, and thanks to Francisco Alvarez's injury looks to get playing time again this season. As a matter of fact, he might be the starting catcher going into the opener. As endearing as the Mariners fans were towards him in the early 2020s, the Mets fans could potentially welcome him even more. 

Pirates: David Bednar has been one of the best relief pieces in Pittsburgh this decade. Last year he had a down season. Either he recovers what he had in the early part of the decade or the Bucs dump him and go with Holderman in the ninth. 

Royals: Hunter Renfroe, after being on a different team every year for the past 5 years, has finally settled in Kansas City. He lacks the real pop he had in San Diego, but he's steady, reliable, and gets the job done. He looks to start this season in the outfield, at least until the Royals build up enough that he doesn't have to.

Twins: Chris Paddack is looking like a probable Opening Day rotation pick. The last few years he's gotten injured at some point, but last year was a relatively full picture of his skills, and while he hasn't touched his 2019 peak. Ty France, meanwhile, is coming off a weaker year after being the go-to 1B guy in Seattle for years. He looks to start at 1st in Minnesota, filling in for a gold glove campaign from Carlos Santana. The Twins have Jose Miranda ready to go if things don't work out though.

White Sox: Travis Jankowski won a World Series with the Rangers, and this is the thanks they give him? And the worrying detail is I'm not even sure if Janko will make the team out of camp for the White Sox. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Royals

 

2024 was the year that, after several seasons of threatening to, the Kansas City Royals put together an intimidating, varied playoff-caliber team that chased off the Twins and made it to a tough, breakneck ALDS against the Yankees. They didn't win, and the Yanks didn't have too much trouble with them, but now that Bobby Witt, Cole Ragans, Lucas Erceg and Seth Lugo have gotten a taste of the postseason with this team, they're gonna want even more. And with the shifting of tides in this division, it is attainable.

M.J. Melendez, for a few years, has been a defensive liability for the Royals, both at catcher and in the outfield. But now, with a permanent outfield role, Melendez may have had his best season to date in the field. Yes, he had a -7 defensive WAR figure, but that's a step up from the norm. Melendez's plate numbers actually took a dive this year, as he only hit .206 with 44 RBIs and 17 homers. In the postseason, though, he was responsible for 2 RBIs and a crucial home run.

2025 Prediction: Between Kyle Isbel, Joey Wiemer, and arguably Dairon Blanco and Jonathan India, the Royals will have more above-average defensive options next year. I think they'll DH Melendez a lot, and his value will go up.

Prior to the season, the Royals invested in some replacement level veterans, who provided stability til the potential for homegrown players, or, more accurately, the addition of above-replacement-level veterans late in the season. Hunter Renfroe, in his sixth team since leaving the Padres, was excessively mediocre in Kansas City, hitting .229 with 52 RBIs and 15 home runs in 120 games, with no luck in the postseason either. 

2025 Prediction: The slightest improvement but I don't think he'll be starting for whoever signs him.

Similarly, the Royals got Adam Frazier to act as a placeholder infielder til Michael Massey was trusted again. The Orioles used Frazier this way last year til they were more confident in Gunnar Henderson. 2024 went similarly for Frazier, as he hit .202 with 22 RBIs and 4 homers in 104 games, while also providing decent defense at 2nd and in the outfield.

2025 Prediction: Yeah I think at this point Frazier's a career replacement-level depth infielder, so let's see...who isn't sure about the strength of their middle-infielder rookie? The Mets with Mauricio? The Tigers? If not the Guardians get 'im.

Dairon Blanco was the Royals' designated depth outfielder this year, brought in to pinch run and also sub in defensively. In 88 games, Blanco stole 31 bases [as many as Bobby Witt], and hit .258 with 13 RBIs and 4 homers. Blanco is a very handy guy to have around, and his speed will ensure he continues to be a part of these teams.

2025 Prediction: He starts a bit more and puts together a fuller all-around season.

The Royals were truly excellent at midyear pickups, not only having a terrific deadline but using the waiver deals and free agency to keep the team fresh. Michael Lorenzen was a key trade deadline deal, coming over from the Rangers after a strong start. Lorenzen, like in Philly last year, missed a few starts due to injuries, but was sharp when healthy, with a 1.57 ERA, 22 Ks and a 1.2 WAR in 7 starts. He also struck out 3 in the postseason, though he did walk away with a loss.

2025 Prediction: I think he stays in one place all next year, and he stays healthy. A competitor gets him as a low rotation piece and he gives them a really nice year.

And then, in addition to signing Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman, the Royals took a flyer on 40-year-old Yuli Gurriel, who hadn't played yet in 2024, as a replacement for the hurt Vinnie Pasquantino. Gurriel was above-average at 1st, and hit .241 with with 6 RBIs in 18 games. He also had 4 postseason hits, continuing his excellent October production.

2025 Prediction: I would assume he retires but something tells me he still wants to play. And a minor league deal did well enough for him last year, even if the Braves never brought him up.

Coming Tomorrow- The Detroit Tigers were counted out midway through the season. Then, inexplicably, they beat the Astros in a playoff series. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Reds

 

It feels so hypocritical for me to say this, because on one hand, the expanded playoffs has led to so many things I'm dissatisfied with, but on the other hand, it seems unfair that there wasn't room in the playoffs for the Cincinnati Reds this year. What a fun team these guys were, and they got insanely close.

Ultimately, what did them in was a rotation that could not stay healthy, with Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Vladimir Gutierrez and Connor Overton all being out of commission at some point, and the replacement guys like Luke Weaver and Ben Lively only doing so much for them. What ruled this season for Cincinnati was the rookies, the guys who came up and helped carry the team, especially in the second half.  The fans will remember this season for bringing them Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Elly de la Cruz and Andrew Abbott at once, just to name the ones I already did customs of.

And the thing about this team having so many cool players without making the postseason is that I barely made customs of this team. So I have a ton left over for Uncustomed Heroes.

Case in point: I didn't even do a Tyler Stephenson this season, and it's honestly because after missing a lot of 2022 with an injury, he was still just...kinda off this year. Both defensively and offensively he was a few steps back from his strong 2021. Despite playing 142 games thanks to the Reds using him at DH on his off days behind the plate, he only hit .243, a career low, with 56 RBIs and 13 homers, ironically both career highs. It just feels like Stephenson was stuck in second gear for a lot of the year, and hopefully 2024 is an improvement. 

2024 Prediction: An improvement, but I think the Reds are gonna consider moving Stephenson out of the backstop position. 

Nick Senzel is one of the last remaining pieces of the burgeoning late-2010s teams, and I feel like Senzel just kept narrowly avoiding his potential. Literally every season of his Reds career, Senzel has either been blocked at a primary position or underwhelming at the plate. Or, alternatively, he's injured for most of it. Senzel played 104 games this season, and he hit .236 with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs, which are both career highs, but with injuries, regime changes and general inefficiency, it was impossible for Senzel to really factor into the Reds' plans this season. Senzel finished the year with a respectable WAR total...of 0.0. Which is 0.1 lower than his season mark. 

2024 Prediction: The Nationals have signed a third base prospect from the late 2010s who kept hanging around an organization without being healthy or imperative to the team? Him and Carter Kieboom are gonna fight to the death!

Graham Ashcraft made the most starting appearances for the Reds this season, and he did it while still fighting injuries sustained during the 2022 season that would lead to a different injury that would end his 2023 season and make his 2024 debut questionable. That...sums up a lot about the Reds' season. That said, Ashcraft still did a lot for the Reds, with 26 games, a 7-9 record, a 4.76 ERA and 111 Ks. This still gave him a 2.4 WAR, making him the team's most valuable pitcher. 

2024 Prediction: Finally produces some peak mastery in the middle months of the season, and helps legitimize the Reds.

The Reds' bullpen had a lot of really cool pieces this year. One of them was former Rangers farmhand Ian Gibaut, who, fun fact, was part of the World Baseball Classic's Great Britain squad, a team whose uniforms and hats must have been made on a 20 dollar budget. Gibaut appeared in 74 games for the Reds, and went 8-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 69 Ks. Gibaut was the Reds' most valuable reliever this season, and it's hopefully a precursor to a solid MLB career.

2024 Prediction: Lower ERA, less innings, but more eyes will be upon him.

Before the Reds went to Andrew Abbott on their minor league depth chart, they chose Brandon Williamson, a 25-year old rookie who got 23 starts in for the Reds, and in a year where they kept trying so many minor league pitchers, it's nice that one of 'em stuck around. Williamson had a season that got better as it went on, as his ERA evened out to a 4.46 with 98 Ks. I think he would have had a smoother ramp up to the majors had everybody not gotten hurt, but he did well enough for himself overall.

2024 Prediction: The rotation going into 2024 seems to be Greene-Lodolo-Abbott-Ashcraft, and Williamson is up for that last spot against Connor Overton. Will he have the spring to get that last spot? Uh...honestly, I think he'll be called upon for it rather than get it out of camp.

The Reds' sharpest trade deadline move was actually getting Sam Moll from Oakland, as he was one of their best bullpen performers in the second half. Moll had 25 games in Cincinnati and only gave up 2 earned runs, with 22 Ks and a 0.973 WHIP. In a year where a lot of smart trade deadline moves didn't entirely pan out, Moll did everything he was acquired to do.

2024 Prediction: Becomes the Reds' top bullpen piece and continues his excellent work.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand was a big prospect that was brought up as an offensive addition, even if there wasn't an open position for him yet. Spencer Steer and Joey Votto both were covering first, so it was really only the DH position that CES could land at, and given that limited option, he did alright for himself as a power bat. In 63 games he hit .270 with 13 home runs and 37 RBIs, a nice boost in the stretch run for the Reds.

2024 Prediction: Either in an infield position or just the DH, the Reds will try to make sure CES can play every day, and it will work out for them.

 

Meanwhile, Noelvi Marte, another huge organizational piece for the Reds, got a late August call-up and filled in at 3rd for a lot of September. He impressed in that time, hitting .316 with 36 hits, 15 RBIs and 6 steals in 35 games. Perhaps this may be why the Reds felt they didn't need Senzel going forward- between McLain, Steer, India, Marte and de la Cruz, they kind of have their infield figured out for the next few years.

2024 Prediction: The Reds will go with Marte as the starting 3rd baseman [I also think they're gonna try to move Jonathan India], and he'll be in the top 3 of Rookie of the Year voting.

The Reds took advantage of a few waiver deals late in the year, and even if neither went especially well, I figured they'd both be cool to talk about. The Yankees parted ways with Harrison Bader after some spotty numbers for them, and the Reds gave him a shot in the outfield. In 14 games, Bader hit .161 with 5 hits, 3 RBIs and 3 steals. And then he was cut again.

2024 Prediction: Someone will give Bader a shot, but will he ever produce a full season of strong work rather than just a month or so of it?

And then they grabbed Hunter Renfroe from LA, after a decent enough year there. Renfroe also got 14 games in Cincinnati, mostly as a DH, and he hit .128 with 5 hits, 4 RBIs and a home run. Renfroe was also cut after this, meaning this gambit did not work at all for the Reds.

2024 Prediction: He'll be a lot better off with the Royals. Considering that he's played for 6 teams since 2019, something tells me he won't need the second year of the contract.

I think it's a safe bet to say that Joey Votto has played his last game as a Red. After 16 years, over 2000 hits, an MVP and some Hall of Fame votes waiting to happen, the Reds aren't likely to pick up Votto for another season. It's for the best reason, honestly- the Reds have so many great young pieces to lead the team that they don't have room, or much use, for Votto right now. Votto only played 65 games this year, and he only hit .202 with 42 hits, 38 RBIs and 14 homers, which is still no slouch. The Reds owe so much to Joey Votto for making them fun over the last decade and a half, and he'll certainly be welcome there after he's done playing.

2024 Prediction: Yeah, I don't think he's done. As weird as it would look, I think he suits up for someone else in a DH role, knocks some of his last-ever career homers, and finishes his career his way. 

Coming Tomorrow- I don't usually do a post on Christmas, so Tuesday the next one will go up. That post is on a team that didn't have much of a chance but still had some intriguing storylines pop up.

The Man Who Looked Exactly Like Mike Trout

 

So even as their team has a decent enough go of things so far this year, Angels fans are having fun with Hunter Renfroe. Not because he's a great player, as, well, they are having fun with that aspect too. And not because this is his fifth team in the last five seasons, after playing for San Diego, Tampa, Boston and Milwaukee, though that is also pretty curious. No, it's because he's playing for the Angels and he almost exactly resembles his teammate, Mike Trout.

So many people online have had fun with the compare/contrast, how combining their faces equals a full baseball player with even symmetry. This is something people had even been commenting on for years before, and the Brewers' social media had some fun with it as well. It's a very fun perk, and it does help that both Trout and Renfroe are playing well right now. Granted, Renfroe is no Mike Trout, but Renfroe's not doing too badly, either, hitting .254 with 21 RBIs and 7 homers. 

The one thing about the Angels is that they're still a very good power team, even if contact isn't quite everyone's forte quite yet. This team has people like Taylor Ward, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon and, yes, Trout, Renfroe and Ohtani, who can bat runs in and pound balls into the outfield. There are contact hitters hiding here, like Gio Urshela, who's continued his steady work given to any team lucky enough to give him a starting spot. And there are people who, if they were a little luckier right now, would be contact helpers, like Luis Rengifo and new rookie Zach Neto. 

But...the tricky part about a lot of these power hitters is that several of them were signed with the understanding that they'd hit for contact as well. I mean, we figured Anthony Rendon would trail off, but not quite to this extent. Ward was hitting for average last year and now he's hitting .230. Drury hit .274 for the Reds and now he's hitting .248. Yes, Drury has 7 homers and 19 RBIs, so it's not all bad, but I think Phil Kevin was hoping this team would have more offensive dimensions.

Trout and Ohtani aren't the problem, they're doing what they always do, and well at that. I just think that having so many guys turn out to be lower-average power hitters, along with so many pitchers having disappointing Aprils, is just another setback for these Angels teams. They're good, and they're better than they have been right now, but with the Rangers surging, and the Astros...being the Astros, I don't know if this style of offense will cut it for the whole time.

Coming Tonight: A future Hall of Famer who is just having another career year because he can.

Ren-aissance Man

 

In 2019, Hunter Renfroe played for the San Diego Padres. They failed to make the playoffs.

In 2020, Hunter Renfroe played for the Tampa Bay Rays. They made the World Series and lost.

In 2021, Hunter Renfroe played for the Boston Red Sox. They made it to an ALCS and lost.

In 2022, Hunter Renfroe is playing for the Milwaukee Brewers. If the season ended today, he'd just fail to make the playoffs. 

What's happened is that the NL Wild Card race has reached a cliff. The Giants are 6 games back from the Phillies, and look to be out of it unless they truly catch fire. The race is down to the Braves, Padres, Phillies and Brewers. Just those four. The AL Wild Card race essentially has 7 teams going for 3 spots, the NL one is far less complicated and might just be a game of musical chairs until somebody loses too many games. Knowing one of these four teams' luck, I can honestly guess which one that'll be, but I'm hoping I'll be proved wrong.

The Brewers are still sort of tussling the Cardinals for the division, so they honestly have a higher chance than their three competitors to make the playoffs. They could just win the division and get in that way. But at the same time, this team has been victim to lows, losing streaks and injury luck. They also, and I've had this criticism for the entire year...they don't have a central lineup guy like they used to with Yelich. Yelich is good, but he's not as good as he was. And this team doesn't have like a BIG lineup guy. They have people who are good, like Willy Adames, Kolten Wong and Omar Narvaez, and they have surprise contact guys like Jace Peterson, but like...there's no Paul Goldschmidt or Manny Machado type here.

So then why is Hunter Renfroe so important to this team? He's doing his usual thing, hitting homers and mostly for power, and he's got 20 homers and 46 RBIs so far, but this is par for the course with Renfroe. Honestly, I think Renfroe just adds to this Brewers team's canon of power-hitting machines. Renfroe and Rowdy Tellez, when both on, are trouble. Willy Adames has 22 homers, he's right there with them. Even Keston Hiura, who's played 48 games due to, well, not being what was advertised, has 10 homers. This team is capable of a ton of power, and Renfroe is the cherry on top of that, or perhaps the most versatile power hitter on the team.

It is going to take a lot more than just one-sided power for this team to stake a claim on the last wild card spot. While the Brewers do have luck on their side just by not being the Phillies, they're gonna need to earn their place in the postseason, and be enough to go deep into it. It'll be tough, but if they can hit their way there...that'll be something.

Coming Tomorrow- My guess is he thought his old teammates Jesse and Geno were having too much fun in Seattle so he decided to join them.

The Great Boston Decline

 

It's been a trend since 2019. Inaction always equals failure in Boston.

The Red Sox' inability to strike after the 2018 season, keeping their team the same, resulted in an immediate decline post-WS win. Their similar inability to boost their pitching staff in an injury-plagued year resulted in a 5th place finish on the basis of the rotation alone. And now, their lack of crucial moves at the trade deadline, save for Kyle Schwarber who is currently hurt, left them depleted and bewildered as the teams that DID bulk up are now passing them.

And now the lack of action and reinforcement is costing them. Alex Verdugo's out for a few days, J.D. Martinez was just out with COVID along with Jarren Duran. And, more importantly, the team has lost 11 of their last 14 games, all since the deadline. The Rays now have a big 5-game lead over them for the East, and the Yankees are beginning to come for them after a series victory against the Royals.

Honestly, I'm not calling this the death nell of the Red Sox season, because they already have so much going for them. Devers, Bogaerts and Martinez are all still deadly. Hunter Renfroe has heated up, and is hitting for power without completely tanking in the average department. Eovaldi and Pivetta are still having impressive seasons on the mound. Matt Barnes is still a grade-a closer.

But...a majority of the rotation is ballooning with ERAs. Same with the bullpen, as only Garrett Whitlock has one below 3. Bringing up Tanner Houck was a good idea but now he's back in the minors. Really, what's happened is that the core of the team isn't enough to lift them entirely anymore. The pitching has evened out and isn't as strong as it was in the first half. It's really coming down to the other guys out pitching the Sox, even if the lineup is still explosive. 

This team could still do great things...but this week they're playing the Rays again, and are gonna need something resembling momentum if they want to stand a chance against the Yankees next week. 

Coming Tomorrow-Second baseman for a team that, until recently, was a shoo-in for the glory.

Champion Series Update: Southeastern Domination Edition

 So. Braves have won 2 games. Rays have won 3. It's unfair to jump to conclusions after less than half of the proposed series', but...what if this is our World Series?

I'd...honestly be down.

First of all, the inevitable matchup from January, Yankees-Dodgers, won't be there. Yes, the Dodgers could still find it and win, so this could be null, but...if they do, it'll have been something we'd all seen coming for months, and...I kind of like seasons where two teams you couldn't have really guessed end up in the World Series. The Braves may have been in the top 5 or so NL teams, but I wouldn't have been smart enough to guess them. And with the Yankees and Twins looking insane in March, I definitely wouldn't have pegged Tampa. 

Secondly, neither team has won in either YEARS or ever. Even if the Dodgers make it, that stat will be fulfilled, because I honestly don't see the Astros coming back from a 3-game deficit like this, especially against a pitching staff they cannot outsmart. So...either one of these teams adding a trophy to the case would be pretty cool. 

Thirdly...these two teams have the power to make a really cool World Series. Acuna, Ozuna and D'Arnaud against Snell, Glasnow and Morton? Aw, man. And the battle of the rookies with Ian Anderson and Randy Arozarena? Granted, it'll be a Series without EXTREME star power, save for like Acuna and Freeman, but...it'll be an evenly matched series where either team could win big and start the 2020s on a huge note.

This could all change if the losing teams gain momentum, which isn't unheard of, but...the way these two teams are playing right now, it's screaming WS-matchup. I could be wrong, I might be wrong, but in this moment...this is where the heat's coming from.

A Pham-Tastic Edition of This Trade Makes No Sense

I get mixed feelings about doing This Trade Makes No Sense posts. On one hand, I like doin' em cause they're fun to write, and I get to play John Oliver a bit. On the other hand, the demand for posts like these proves that GMs are still quite stupid.

I was gonna do one yesterday about the Mets trading for Jake Marisnick just to have him hit .220 off the bench all year, but that'd be too one note. 'He sucks', or 'Mets suck', or whatever. I needed something with more pull, more nuance.

So thank god the Rays did something stupid, or else I'd be really screwed here.

Here's the deal in print: The Tampa Bay Rays took one of their best players, contact-hitting outfielder Tommy Pham, and a two-way prospect named Jake Cronenworth, and traded them both to San Diego in exchange for outfielder Hunter Renfroe and shortstop prospect Xavier Edwards.

Let's go over some issues with this trade.

1. Pham vs. Renfroe is what this trade really boils down to, and let's examine and compare the both of them. Pham is a versatile, contact-hitting outfielder whose highest batting average has been .306, and has hit up to 155 hits in a single season. Pham also ended a season with a 6.2 WAR, which is nice for a guy who had his breakout season at 29. Meanwhile, Renfroe is a power-hitting, high-strikeout guy who had a great defensive year this year, has had a high average of .248, a high hits-value of 103, and had his highest WAR this season with 2.6

ADV- PADRES.

2. The Rays will be going into 2020 with a few high-strikeout guys on their roster already- Willy Adames had 153, Austin Meadows had 131. The difference is that Adames and Meadows had solid, productive seasons in between strikeouts. Adames still finished the year with a 4.2 WAR, the highest for a position player in Tampa, and Meadows finished with a 3.8, both higher than Renfroe's with 154 strikeouts.

3. Alright, let's move off the Renfroe bashing, and instead bash the other people. The Rays are getting a shortstop prospect named Xavier Edwards. The Padres figured they could get rid of Edwards because he's blocked at SS by Fernando Tatis, and will be for a while. So they sent Edwards to....Tampa Bay. Where he will be blocked by WILLY ADAMES for the foreseeable future. Adames is 23, is coming off a 4.2 WAR season, and won't be eligible for arbitration til 2022. Granted, Edwards is 20 and will likely be in AA next year, but...are the Rays just assuming they'll have moved Adames by the time Edwards comes up?

How is Edwards supposed to feel about this? How is ADAMES supposed to feel about this? It's the equivalent of the SNL 'Meet Your Second Wife' sketch, where they casually reveal that Beck Bennett will get a new wife because Aidy Bryant will die in a kayaking accident. How are you supposed to go about your life knowing that?

4. Jake Cronenworth will eventually get to prove if two-way players work in San Diego. Keep in mind- thanks to Brendan McKay, we know that they barely even work in Tampa.

5. This is a deal that sets San Diego up with more well-rounded star power and more pitching...and leaves Tampa with a strikeout-friendly outfielder and a prospect that will render their young star obsolete in a year...and TAMPA SAID YES TO THIS?

A lot of this probably makes more sense if you're an executive, or if you wake up every morning in a pile of cocaine, but I just don't see the benefit for this if you're the Rays. You just had a wonderful season, and you make a move that rids you of one of your stars and jeopardizes another one of them?

I mean, the funniest part of this is that Hunter Renfroe got to premiere the new uniforms a few weeks ago, and he's not gonna get to wear any of 'em. But that's all the entertainment value I'm getting from this.

The Padres Pivot Slightly

So the first-half mojo that propelled the Padres through a strong start in April and May? Yeah, that hasn't lasted especially long, seeing as the Padres are currently back in last. Which is exactly why they beefed up their roster in the first place.

I mean, what's the issue here? Is it the inexperienced pitching? Not really- Chris Paddack, Cal Quantrill, Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer are all doing pretty well, even if adding Dinelson Lamet to the fold hasn't exactly helped (that Morejon kid looks good though). The main problem is the lack of bullpen options, as most of them are dropping out due to injuries, and more options, like Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen, might be gone soon anyway. Do YOU want a Padres team where Trey Wingenter is your best option in the ninth? Me either.

The real problem might be too many people who are paid to hit not giving great overall numbers. Eric Hosmer's been a disappointment in San Diego, Margot and Reyes' numbers are still lacking in well-roundedness, Ian Kinsler's cold, Wil Myers has 109 strikeouts, Austin Hedges STILL can't get it together, and rookies like Francisco Mejia and Luis Urias are still struggling. For a team that seemed to have it in April, the Padres seem to have absolutely nothing figured out now.

The only good things to have come out of this season in San Diego seem to have been the Machado-Tatis combo...and Hunter Renfroe, who's come from a bench position to lead the team in home runs with 28, and lead all non-Fernando-Tatis Padres in WAR with 3.0. This may be a Chase Headley case where he gets lucky for one year, but...at least somebody's doing well for them, especially now, at their direst point.

I don't know if this means the Padres end in last, but...I really hope not.

Coming Tonight- That big Tampa rookie everyone was treating like he'd been in the league for years.

Another Year of Unmemorable Padres Baseball

In 2010, the Padres had a record of 90 wins and 72 losses, a record that would get them into the playoffs any other year, and a record several teams are gunning for this year. They finished second in the NL to the San Francisco Giants, and the wild card exploits of the Atlanta Braves kept them out of the playoffs, after organizing a surprisingly potent team.

That was the last time the Padres had a foreseeable chance at the playoffs. And that includes their 2015-era quest for contracts. They've been middling or unspectacular ever since. And even if they've drafted a few competent people, they haven't especially handled their farm system well, owing back to last season, where they had to squeeze two Rule 5 acquisitions into the 40-man roster due to lack of options.

Is it possible that a lot of the people they're calling up just aren't good? Not necessarily. I'm not denying the talents of people like Hunter Renfroe, Manny Margot, Christian Villanueva or new standout Franmil Reyes, but...none of them are able to lift this team past mediocrity. It's not like you can see any of these guys carrying the next generation of this team. I don't know if that's a knock at the farm system or a knock at the team in general, who, even with Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers, still can't seem to get things together.

And you want to see a team like this succeed, but with the rotation as messy as it is, and with the lack of impressive batting averages in this lineup...I don't know how likely success is for a team like this. And even if they try another tactic like 2015, it may not work with a hollow iteration of the team, like this one.

I wanna be optimistic, but...just look at what the Padres are dealing with.

Coming Tomorrow- It may be Gleyber Torres' year, but this guy might try to steal the ROY honors right out from under him.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2016: Padres

Ugh.

Just...not fun. Not pretty. Not good.

There's not much optimism about the Padres, even for 2017, as they've successfully shot their organization in the foot, as they have completed trading nearly everyone they acquired in 2015 away, and now they have an even worse team than they had when they started...which takes SKILL. You need to be SKILLED to be that bad.

Jon Jay had a decent enough season, but he's going to Chicago, so they're not even gonna have him.

So, what do the Padres have? They have Hunter Renfroe, who came in with a month left to go in the season and hit like a pro. Will this translate to 2017 success? Who knows!? But it's all Padres fans have to cling onto. They have no pitching, barely any hitting, and only Wil Myers to hold the team down. It's pathetic. It disgusts me.

Coming Tomorrow- Isn't it funny that it's a slightly better subject, and it's the Phillies?