The Low Budget Monolith

 

I talked about how the Giants have succeeded by using unlikely players in big roles while not compromising their core earlier today, and I think it's an excellent business model. Gabe Kapler, though, does seem to be a few paces away from Kevin Cash, who had perfected the idea of taking low budget risks from other squads and making them into major parts of the team. 

Case in point: looking at the Rays' starting lineup, there are three actual homegrown players- Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco. Everybody else was netted in trades or small deals. Ji-Man Choi spent years trying to find a squad to play 1st for, jumping from New York to Anaheim to Milwaukee until finally becoming a mainstay for the Rays. Now he's hit 35 RBIs and 6 homers, and he's a very important member in this lineup. Yandy Diaz was flipped from Cleveland and he's been a steady corner infielder for these teams, this year he's got a 1.4 WAR. Obviously Arozarena and Zunino were traded to Tampa and became All-Stars. Francisco Mejia, Harold Ramirez and Brett Phillips have all become great extra bats.

And NOW...we have Isaac Paredes, who was flipped to the Rays a few weeks into the season due to lack of room in the Detroit infield, is having a PHENOMENAL month in Tampa, hitting .283 this month with 13 RBIs and 7 homers, becoming the kind of killer corner infielder he could have become for the Tigers. And yet the Rays' GM knew to strike at the exact right time to land a new hero player. I don't know how they do it.

The Rays, while currently in fourth, are right there in the AL East race, and sort of deadlocked with the Red Sox and Blue Jays for second. The difference is that the Red Sox have had crazy momentum this month, the Jays, as per usual, are doing well in June, and the Rays, honestly, have lost more momentum than they've gained this month. Without a lot of big guys in the lineup and without Drew Rasmussen and now J.P. Feyereisen, they're a bit more human and have a few more people sticking out against the current. I still see the Rays as the dark horse of this division, but that's exactly what they want me to think, so they could go on a tear soon enough.

Coming Tomorrow- A foundational infield piece for a growing, but still mediocre, team.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Rays

 

Kinda thought the Rays would be making another World Series this year. Red Sox had other plans. 

The Rays did a ton right this year. They had a consistent run of things and waited for the Sox to drop out to get even stronger. As usual, their GM made the biggest moves this year, dropping Willy Adames to make way for Wander Franco and strengthening the bullpen. 

Like usual, the Rays had a ton of characters bobbing around and performing accordingly. Ji-Man Choi was injured for a lot of 2021, but he still had some decent power numbers, hitting 11 homers and 43 RBIs in 83 games. He still rakes, but he's not quite as indispensable as he was in 2019.

2022 Prediction: Takes 1st base back, and does alright, but eventually loses the position to someone younger.

In Choi's absence, most reps at 1st went to Yandy Diaz, who'd usually be covering third if not for Joey Wendle. Diaz had a solid, if unspectacular, year, hitting .256 with 119 hits, 64 RBIs and 13 homers. He's become a pretty steady switch-infield guy, but he hasn't had huge numbers in a bit.

2022 Prediction: With Vidal Brujan on his toes, Diaz needs to have a nice season to keep third, and I predict he'll have a massive improvement that'll put eyes on him during the offseason.

With Glasnow and Chirinos hurt, Morton and Snell gone, and Archer hella inconsistent, one of the few trusted starters the Rays went into the season with was Ryan Yarbrough. That said, his season was a bit of a disappointment, as he sported a 5.11 ERA in 30 games, only 21 of them starts. He did have 9 wins and 117 Ks, but as McClanahan and others were rising, he wasn't staying with them, hence the move to the pen.

2022 Prediction: Stays in the rotation, has a modest improvement, but with Patino and McClanahan rising, I think he'll be one of the lower-key names in the rotation, and may be moved eventually.

After a disappointing year in New York, Michael Wacha tried Tampa for his next chance at recapturing his Cardinals numbers. His numbers don't show how sneakily on-point he could be when he could- a 3-5 record and a 5.05 ERA in 23 starts, but he only gave up 4 earned runs against the Yankees the whole year, with a 1.66 ERA over 5 appearances, his best record against a division rival [the Jays and O's kicked the shit out of him]. So even if he was a disappointment, he was a surprising Yankee killer. 

2022 Prediction: And said-Yankee killer just wound up in one of the most unsettling places for a Yankee killer to be...the Boston rotation. I don't think Paxton's gonna be healthy the whole year, so Wacha will get some crucial starts, and improve over his 2021, but only marginally. 

 

2020's postseason unsung hero, Brett Phillips, continued his under-the-radar work in several factions. In 118 games, Phillips hit .206, but with 44 RBIs, 13 homers, and 14 steals, which was most shocking to me. Plus, in an extended role, Phillips has become a smart defensive substitution in the outfield, with great defensive numbers. 

2022 Prediction: A similar role, with slightly starrier numbers, but more starts upon an injury late.

As for the guys the Rays sneakily went out and got, Luis Patino was a return in the Blake Snell deal, and in the second half he was an unlikely starting weapon, with a 4.74 ERA in 15 starts, including 63 Ks. He also made 5 postseason appearances in relief, and struck out 2 despite a loss in the ALDS. For a 21-year-old, some flashy stuff to start out with.

2022 Prediction: Now that he knows the ropes, Patino will mellow out a little. He's not gonna start the season in the rotation, but I see him getting starts down the stretch. In a few years he'll be like Julio Urias.

A minor addition to the Willy Adames deal, Drew Rasmussen also wiggled his way from the bullpen to the rotation, earning 10 starts with 3 wins, a 1.93 ERA and 28 Ks...even though he notched 45 Ks in 25 relief appearances. Bottom line, Rasmussen is a flexible asset that has a number of different uses.

2022 Prediction: I put Rasmussen slightly below Patino in terms of who gets thrown into the rotation on an injury, but I do see him starting games with similar power next year.

And, of course, there's Nelson Cruz, a high-profile steal from Minneapolis, who was already hitting like mad and lifting the team before the trade. Upon arriving in Tampa Bay, his numbers became a little more typical for a 40-year old. Yes, 13 homers and 36 RBIs in 55 games, but Cruz only hit .226 in this time, and had the same number of strikeouts as he did in 85 games for the Twins. He did start during the ALDS against Boston, and garnered a postseason homer, but again, did not hit for average.

2022 Prediction: I think the wisest thing for Nellie to do would be retire. But he's not going to do that. So, my guess is DH'ing in Oakland and not making it to July.

Tomorrow, some selections from the Red Sox team that almost had it. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Rays

 

So yeah. The 2020 Rays were the best team in the AL, by a very wide margin, and spent the entire season getting better and better, right until the duel-of-the-gods World Series, which they came very close to winning. While it may have been impossible for anybody to top the Dodgers, the Rays were able to knock out the Jays, Yankees and Astros without making it look that difficult. This was a season that had been building for the past 2, and I'm so glad it didn't infuriate me entirely.

Austin Meadows, while not topping his 2019 breakout, was still pretty good in a limited season, with 27 hits and 13 RBIs in 36 games. The .205 average is concerning, but hopefully he'll work on his contact skills when given a full season of production. 

2021 Prediction: 25 homers and a full season of strong material to make up for a slightly-less-dominant Rays team.

Yandy Diaz was also limited by injuries this year, playing only 34 games, but he still made the most of it, hitting .307 with 35 hits and 11 RBIs, and 9 hits and an RBI in the postseason. He doesn't get a lot of play, but Yandy Diaz is still one of the sturdiest, most impressive members of these Rays teams, and while Mike Brosseau had the bigger moment this year, Diaz might be the more important 3rd baseman.

2021 Prediction: Thanks to Brosseau, Diaz isn't gonna play at 3rd as often as he did, and might play DH more, but will still be a .300 hitter.

Ji-Man Choi didn't have quite the power-hitting year that fans were used to, but he still hit .230 with 16 RBIs, which isn't horrible. He also had 10 hits, 4 RBIs and 2 homers during the postseason, so he was still a crucial member of the team then.

2021 Prediction: Unless he improves as a power-hitter, the Rays are gonna get rid of him.

I...try not to make Mike Zunino customs. He's...in my opinion, the single most overrated player in the league. Zunino has only hit higher than .250 on a season ONCE in his 8-year career. His career WAR is 6.7, which is the kind of stat Mike Trout can pull in a full season. The fact that he can consistently hit .199 and still get work blows my mind. But...Zunino was essentially the starting catcher for the Rays in the playoffs, and had 8 RBIs and 4 homers throughout the postseason, despite a .170 playoff average. So...yes, he can hit for power, but he can't hit for average, which must be frustrating. 

2021 Prediction: I still think the Rays are gonna sign someone else as a starting catcher, so Zunino will do alright, but...as a backup.

The Rays have finally heeded my advice and made Ryan Yarbrough a full starter, no opener BS or any of that. Yarbrough responded with his best season to date, with a 3.56 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 11 games. Yarbrough is a consistent, workhorse of a pitcher, and his ability to eat innings helped the Rays out a lot this year.

2021 Prediction: More of the same. 13 wins, lots of innings, good solid work.

After coming over from Miami last year, Nick Anderson continued his reign as the best reliever you've never heard of, giving up a single earned run in 19 appearances, and notching 6 saves, 26 Ks and a .55 ERA. Absolutely insane numbers. His postseason numbers...less appealing. 8 earned runs, 2 losses, and only 9 strikeouts [only, he says].

2021 Prediction: Has and keeps the closing gig, with slightly higher ERA but similar consistency.

The most impressive breakout relief pitcher for the Rays, in a field of MANY, was Pete Fairbanks, traded at last year's deadline for Nick Solak to Tampa, and finally getting some substantial playing time. In 27 innings, Fairbanks had a 6-3 record, a 2.70 ERA and a 'pen-leading 39 Ks. In the postseason, he sported a 3.65 ERA  with 17 Ks. Even with a few postseason earned runs, Fairbanks was hot as hell all year.

2021 Prediction: Less consistency, but he's still gonna be one of their most prevalent bullpen pieces.

And I can't not make a custom of the Rays' Game 4 hero Brett Phillips, whose ninth-inning RBI off of Kenley Jansen shook the country, and kept the Rays alive against the Dodgers in the World Series. Despite not being a very impressive bench presence for Kansas City or Tampa this year, Phillips still had his brief moments of power, including Game 4. 

2021 Prediction: Back to uneventful bench OF work.

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of AL East teams who have recently been to the World Series, let's examine why the Boston Red Sox ['s pitching] fell apart.

Division Series Update: Climax & Anticlimax

So yesterday, four teams were in position to advance on a win. Three of them lost.

...it's damn great that the one team that won was the New York Yankees, or else I'd be sleepwalking through this post.

Oh, man, what is there NOT to beam about? Sevvy and Green combined for some sharp pitching early. Torres, Gardy and Didi continued their ALDS dominance, while Cameron Maybin got in on the fun with a late-inning homer, and Chapman's save sealed the deal on an already-beautiful ALDS. I'm very proud of these guys, and I hope this dominance and power carries over to the ALCS, no matter who they play. It's likely that it'll be the Astros, which should be VERY tough...

But seeing as the Rays just beat up Zack Greinke, maybe it'll be easier than I thought. Everybody was teeing off of the Cy Young winner yesterday, including Brandon Lowe, Kevin Kiermaier and Ji-Man Choi, leading to a Rays Game 3 victory over the favored Astros. I'm not exactly saying this spells doom for Houston, because they're likely going with Verlander today against Tyler Glasnow, which was a matchup that did them in last time, but...maybe they're more human than we all thought.

Meanwhile, in the NL...I just can't be happy for long, can I?

The Cards-Braves Game 4 went for 10 innings, with a tied-at-4 thing making it wide open for both teams, despite Dallas Keuchel making his short rest well-known with some home runs for Goldy and Ozuna. But...ultimately, Yadier Molina was the hero, sailing a Julio Teheran fly ball into left for an RBI, capping the game at 10, and...anticlimactically forcing a Game 5 in Atlanta. It worries me how close this matchup is looking. It also worries me that the Braves might be going with Folty for Game 5.

Annnnd Max Scherzer decided that there'll be TWO Game 5s on Wednesday. By sheer force of will, it seems, as only Justin Turner was able to get a run through for LA. Also, the Washington offense is still alive and well, taking Rich Hill out in the third thanks to quick work from Anthony Rendon, who was the non-Scherzer MVP of the game.

As the series goes back to LA on Wednesday, possibly putting the ball back in the hands of Walker Buehler (and maybe Stephen Strasburg?), could this lead to Washington's first-ever playoff advancement. Could my World Series winner pick end up flaring out thanks to a Wild Card? I legitimately have no idea how this one will go now.

Still, while we have time, let's eulogize the fallen:

I legitimately thought the Twins had more of a shot than this. I thought their home runs would seal the fate of the Yankees' uneven pitching. I thought that Nelson Cruz and Max Kepler would have field days with Chad Green. This was not the case. And it's sad, too, because the Twins had become such a fun team, even if they were playing mine.

I do think the Twins will be able to regroup and strengthen for 2020, and they may have more of a shot then if they sand off some of their inadequacies. But this was a heartbreaking end to what seemed like a strong year for them.

Today, we've got one elimination-level game left. If this one goes to five as well, I give up.