All Villar, No Pillar

 

Indulge me. I always wanted to make a pun involving those two on this Mets team.

Well, the Mets, as I write this, are still in first in the NL East despite slipping a bit. Hilariously, the guys who stayed healthy during the first injury stretch are now getting injured, most notably Jacob De Grom and Francisco Lindor, but also David Peterson and Jose Peraza. So yes, it's good to have Conforto, McNeil, Davis, Nimmo and Villar all back, but now they've got to hope the guys who were healthy as they rose to first won't cost them now that they're injured.

The refreshing thing is that the Mets have been winning a few in Cincinnati, shutting the Reds out today and battering even the phones of the opposing fans [thank Villar for that one]. The only Opening Day lineup guy that's injured is Lindor, so Luis Guillorme and Jonathan Villar can flexibly move so that the infield works. Plus, Guillorme is still an excellent backup option and is still hitting .293. Also, J.D. Davis is starting again and still relatively hot, there's outfield flexibility with Pillar, and the bulk of the lineup is hitting again, especially Alonso, Nimmo and McNeil. 

The pitching is a little trickier without DeGrom, Peterson or Joey Lucchesi. Tylor Megill has been a decent third option with a 2.63 ERA, and Robert Stock has been an odd but serviceable fourth, but...who's the fifth man? They've used relievers before, are they gonna keep doing that? Are they just sort of tapping their shoes waiting for Peterson or even Noah Syndergaard to come back? Are they just waiting for the trade for whichever pitching piece to come through? Hopefully they figure something out soon, because as good as Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker have been, that's just two guys.

I do think the Mets are the best contender of those in the NL East, but they've become more human in the last few weeks, and teams like the Phillies and Braves could very well jump on that. I don't even think the Phils are good enough to really sustain a lead over them, but you never really know what the deadline deals could bring, and how things could turn out for the division. Hell, maybe the Nats squeak by or something.

Coming Tonight: The White Sox have a lot of stars right now, but if you were to ask me the biggest x-factor player on that team, I'd give you this guy.

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #217-225

 Onto another 9 cards of the 2020 Final Edition set. We're very close to having less than 100 cards left to cover in this set, and I'm already setting up more Topps Cards That Should Have Been cards for after we're done here. Still, we have 2020 to keep wrapping up, so onward we go...

Card #217- Clayton Kershaw ASG, Los Angeles Dodgers

2020 marked the beginning of the Kershawnaissiance. After a few seasons of injuries, slightly more elevated ERAs [like 3], and stepping back to let Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler excel, Clayton Kershaw finally struck back and had another classic, incredible year. So while I don't think he would have started the ASG for the NL, had the 2020 ASG happened, I think it'd be necessary for the home crowd at Dodger Stadium for Kersh to show up in some capacity. Whatever, it'll happen again soon.

Card #218- David Phelps, Philadelphia Phillies

Phelps was yet another attempt at revitalizing the sorry, pitiful Phillies bullpen last year, and after his impressive Brewers start, he was a fine idea, especially considering his prior connection to Phils skipper Joe Girardi. But...the ineptitude of the Philly bullpen sucked David Phelps in as well, with 12.91 ERA in 10 games. TWELVE...NINETY-ONE. And eleven earned runs a game, meaning 1 earned run per game, which no reliever wants. It was not a good stretch for Phelps. Thankfully, he's doing a lot better in Toronto right now.

Card #219- Jonathan Lucroy, Boston Red Sox

Another zero-year type card. Jonathan Lucroy was a spring training signee, after a disappointing end to the 2019 season with Chicago, in Boston. He'd be fighting for a backup role behind Christian Vazquez, and he was a bit removed from his career peak. So while he didn't make the team, he did squeeze in a single game of MLB service last year, without a place appearance or an at-bat. He was a defensive substitution, then he suddenly wasn't needed anymore. The Washington Nationals used Lucroy similarly in 2021 before setting him aside once Yan Gomes and Alex Avila returned.

Card #220- Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals

One of the big rookies out of camp last season. Brady Singer made the Royals to begin the season, and made the rotation right off the bat. While he took a bit to really get acclimated to AL play, Singer still finished strong in 2020, with a 4.06 ERA and 61 Ks in 12 games. He's currently a trusted lower-tier member of the rotation, behind Danny Duffy and...ERVIN SANTANA? THE HELL'S HE DOING HERE?

Card #221- Lance Lynn ASG, Texas Rangers

[Not sure why the siding isn't in this one. My apologies]

Lance Lynn had an even stronger 2020 in Arlington than he did a 2019. 89 Ks in 13 starts tells you everything you need to know about Lynn, as well as how dominant he can be even in a shortened season. Lynn would have been an easy pick for the ASG, as well as, most likely, the only Texas Ranger on the AL team. Lynn's taken a step down currently with the White Sox, but he's still capable of big games.

Card #222- Carlos Estevez, Colorado Rockies

I shouldn't have to explain to you all why a state known for its use of recreational drugs having a relief pitcher named Carlos Estevez is funny. Do a little research into stage names, maybe. Anyway, hotshot Carlos Estevez had another full season as relief specialist in Denver last year, and things went a little south compared to his usual numbers, with a 7.50 ERA in 26 games. He's off to a better start this year, though. 

Card #223- Brock Holt, Washington Nationals

Brock Holt began the 2020 season as an infield option with the Milwaukee Brewers. Unfortunately, in 16 games with the Brewers, he could not hit for shit. So he was released, then almost immediately was picked up by the Nationals, a team still struggling to land on a competent infield picture. Holt was a pretty strong choice as a 2B/SS type, hitting .262 with 4 RBIs in 20 games. He's been pulling similar numbers in Arlington thus far, though he days of pulling higher than replacement level may be behind him.

Card #224- Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Something aligned last year when Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy were all active in the same rotation at the same time- other than, you know, the Astros pulling into the playoffs. All three homegrown latino talents were enough to provide an x-factor for the team, which is desperately needed in the absence of Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke's better numbers. Valdez actually pitched more innings than any other Astros starter, had a 5-3 record with 76 Ks, and had a 3-1 record and a 1.88 ERA during the postseason, with 26 Ks as well. Valdez is currently injured, but like Verlander he'll likely be back with a vengeance rather soon.

Card #225- Jonathan Villar, Toronto Blue Jays

Since leaving the Baltimore Orioles, Jonathan Villar has played for three teams that have absolutely no room for him. The first was the Marlins, who brought him on for 2020, and had him hit .259 while also surrounded by more viable defensive options. So Villar was Miami's sole trade deadline loss, as he was acquired by fellow competitor the Blue Jays...who ALSO did not have a place for Villar, with an already-set infield. So Villar's .188 average really did nothing for them, postseason notwithstanding. And now Villar plays for the Mets, who ALSO kind of had their infield pretty tight before the season, and is mostly a bench bat type. Glad the O's got the last good numbers out of this guy, I guess.

The next 9 cards, which you'll see on Friday, feature one of the biggest rookies of 2021 and one of the biggest trade deadline deals of 2020. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Blue Jays (Part Two)

 So, now we get the Blue Jays that joined the team after the season was already in progress. And that's not limited to trade acquisitions. There were a few callups. Drew Pearson, for instance, started a few games in early August before injuries forced the Jays to make the pitching trades they ended up making. In 5 starts, the rookie posted a 6.00 ERA with a win and 16 strikeouts. Perhaps a fuller season will give a better picture.

2021 Prediction: Won't start the season with the Jays, but will be called up in late May and finally come to prominence. 

Jonathan Villar is an odd case because he was traded from one wild card team to another, and the one he was traded to did worse in the playoffs than the one he was traded from. It's a lot like another Blue Jay in this post. Villar was having a nice year in Miami, but his Jays stats, despite filling a hole at 2nd base, weren't as strong; he batted .188 and had more strikeouts than hits. 

2021 Prediction: The exact opposite of his free agency year in 2019: someone will pick him up on the heels of a crap year and he'll over perform. That someone will thankfully be a competitor, though a west coast one. 

One of the biggest deals for the Blue Jays was landing Robbie Ray, the Arizona strikeout artist who'd refused trades to the Bronx on two different occasions. It was a big deal, and a nice boost to the withering pitching staff. However, Ray took some time to acclimate, with a 4.79 ERA in 5 games, and only 25 Ks.

2021 Prediction: On a second season in Toronto, Robbie Ray will have a season very reminiscent to Trevor Bauer's in 2020- he shakes off the new-team cobwebs and gets right back to striking the shit out of the AL East. He and Ryu, if Ryu also stays hot, will be DEADLY next year. 

The most welcome surprise for the Jays post-August was Taijuan Walker. Walker was having a comeback season in Seattle, and right as things are beginning to heat up for him there, he's traded to Toronto. Unlike Ray, Walker does not miss a beat, with a 1.37 ERA, 25 Ks and 2 wins in 6 starts. Sadly he doesn't get an opportunity to pitch into the postseason, as he would have started Game 3 if Toronto had won either Game 1 or 2, which they did not. 

2021 Prediction: If I'm doing my job right, I'll look over this post the day it goes up to update over any trades that have elapsed since I drafted these. Which means if Taijaun Walker DOES, in fact, sign with the Tigers, I can say that he'll mentor the young pitchers and have another great season. 

Similar to Jonathan Villar, Ross Stripling was also playing for a competitor this year before being traded by the Dodgers in order to...make space, it seems. Which makes sense, as Stripling always seemed like the most unappreciated member of that rotation, always stepping in as insurance for injuries to other starters. So Stripling lands in Toronto right when TOO MANY other starters are coming to prominence, only starts 2 games and relieves 3 others, and finishes the season with an ERA over 6. And the Dodgers, without him, go on to win a World Series.

2021 Prediction: If the Jays don't non-tender him, it means they intend to have him actually start 20 games next year. He'll win 8 of them. 

And the big rookie that jumped in at the end of the season and changed things up was Alejandro Kirk, the stocky, hard-hitting catcher that gave Danny Jansen a run for his money with his power-hitting, his clutch moments, and his general likability and character besides just wearing glasses. In 9 games, Kirk hit .375 with 9 hits and 3 RBIs. He also has one more postseason hit than Jonathan Villar did, despite Villar playing in 2 games and Kirk only playing in one. 

2021 Prediction: By the end of the season, not only is Alejandro Kirk the starting catcher, he's one of the most beloved members of this team. 

Coming Tomorrow- A few from the Braves team that almost, ALMOST, made it to a World Series. 

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals: 2020 Edition

I wasn't expecting much from this trade deadline, somehow, and yet in the last 24 hours things became absolutely insane. Stars flew across coasts, teams split up rotations, and a true competitive giant became clear. Somehow the biggest money-spending teams, like the Dodgers and Yankees, went largely without doing anything, which was a surprise, but far from the only one this deadline.

I have a Top 10 set up, as per usual, but first, several honorable mentions:

-Mychal Givens to Colorado, prospects to Baltimore

-Miguel Castro to Queens, prospect to Baltimore

-Jarrod Dyson to the White Sox, prospects to Pittsburgh

-Mitch Moreland to the Padres, prospects to Boston

-Cameron Maybin to the Cubs, prospects to Detroit

-Jose Martinez to the Cubs, prospects to Tampa

-Ross Stripling to the Blue Jays, prospects to the Dodgers

-Brian Goodwin to the Reds, prospect to Anaheim [this is one of the dumbest moves for me, as the Reds now seem like they're actively preventing Tyler Stephenson or Aristedes Aquino from having any playing time]

-Kevin Pillar to the Rockies, prospects to Boston

-Jason Castro to the Padres, prospects to Anaheim

-Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays, prospects to Seattle

-Tommy Milone to Atlanta, prospects to the O's [this would have been #10 had he not gotten rocked last night]

AND NOW THE TOP TEN:

#10: Tommy La Stella to Oakland, Franklin Barreto and a prospect to Anaheim:

How it Benefits Oakland: I think the A's had run out of ways to placate Franklin Barreto, as they'd been relying on Tony Kemp at 2nd all year, but even then they needed a bit more flexibility, and this gives them that. La Stella could return to his role as bench-player-extraordinaire from 2018 as well as providing a solid infield bat and essentially being a return to the Jed Lowrie era of utility guys getting starts. Definitely a smart lineup-strengthening move for Beane and co.

#9: Todd Frazier to the Mets, prospects to Arlington:

How it benefits the Mets: Reunites them with a clubhouse presence that can help them advance AND be comfortable in the NY metropolitan area. Frazier's Mets years weren't his BIGGEST, but he still developed a sharp fan following, and became a solid producer for the team. As okay as he was in Texas, he could become even better in Queens and return to his former glory, which could benefit New York along with their other new additions of Miguel Castro and Robinson Chirinos. 

#8: Trevor Rosenthal to San Diego, prospects to Kansas City

How it benefits the Padres: One of many attempts to help the Friars' scattershot bullpen in the wake of injuries to Kirby Yates and some inflated ERAs, along with Taylor Williams and Dan Altavilla. Rosenthal is the most stark addition- the former St. Louis closer had a return to form in KC this year with 7 saves and 21 Ks, finally returning to the conversation. Now that he's a factor in the Padres' bullpen, he could either challenge Drew Pomeranz for the ninth inning job or join Williams and Altavilla in the middle-relief journey.

#7: Archie Bradley to the Reds, Josh Van Meter to the D-Backs

How it benefits the D-Backs: Van Meter's a sharp bench player, and he could definitely do well in a bigger role.

How it benefits the Reds: Well, the Reds are another team with bullpen injuries, and even Raisel Iglesias isn't doing as well as usual, so...all-star reliever and closer Archie Bradley will do just fine! The guy's having another fantastic season, he's versatile, and he'll bring a lot to the table alongside Amir Garrett in that bullpen. This move brings them slightly closer to competing in the NL Central.

#6: Robbie Ray to Toronto, prospect to Arizona

How it benefits the Jays: STRIKEOUT ARTIST ROBBIE RAY IS NOW YOUR #2 MAN, TORONTO. Granted, Ray has gotten into some trouble this year, and is struggling to keep opposing offenses at bay, but getting out of the NL West and away from the Rockies, Dodgers and Padres may be better for him. He's still doing a lot of strikeouts, and putting him next to Taijuan Walker, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark is a good look for the Jays. 

 #5: Mike Minor to the A's, prospects to the Rangers
How it benefits Oakland: Like the Ray deal, this one is a lot better in concept than it is numerically this season, hence the lower placing, so you have to put it into the perspective of 'Mike Minor was amazing last year, and hopefully he still has some of that power with him for the last month of the year'. Minor's been slumping so far, and hopefully it's an environmental thing rather than a loss of velocity or anything. Anyway, he'll be a good match for Mike Fiers in the A's rotation, and bring some much-needed experience to that mostly-young crew.

 #4: Jonathan Villar to the Blue Jays, prospects [JEFF CONINE'S SON] to the Marlins
How it benefits Toronto: Gives them a substantial, offensively-talented replacement for Bo Bichette and an eventual DH option once Bo returns. But also, Jonathan Villar in this lineup could make the Jays into the postseason contender this team definitely wants to be. Ray and Walker help, but Villar adds a legitimate star alongside Biggio and Grichuk to bulk the lineup, and this team's chances. It's not an outwardly OMG move like getting Price or Tulo, but it's a lower-key move for a lower-key Jays team. Which I can respect.

 #3: Austin Nola to the Padres, Taylor Trammell, Luis Torrens and Ty France to the Mariners
How it helps the Ms: Trammell, Lewis and Kelenic in the same outfield? Holy crap. France will fill the utility role Nola had been filling so far. Torrens will hopefully get the starting gig he's been waiting for.
How it benefits the Padres: As this lineup was turning out to be a monolith, the real weak point looked like it would be catcher, even as Torrens came in. Austin Nola is not only a decent catcher, but he's got that sort of lineup x-factor about him where he can get a lot done in a lot of roles, and would probably gain star power within another season or so in Seattle. Putting him in a competitive San Diego team that has a space for him and needs another bat like him is a wise move that, I imagine, is going to warrant me putting this at #3 over Mike Minor and Robbie Ray in a year's time [remember when I said last year that I'd come back to Zac Gallen in a year or so? D-Backs made a steal there]

 #2: Starling Marte to the Marlins, Caleb Smith, Humberto Mejia and a prospect to the D-Backs
How it Benefits Arizona- Their only real rotation loss was Robbie Ray, so adding Smith and Mejia to the Weaver-Gallen-Clarke-Young wheel is actually a pretty nice deal.
How it Benefits Miami: This was my biggest shock, because it was a reminder that the Marlins were still trying to compete, even after dealing Smith and Villar. It proved that all the Marlins needed was a big star in the lineup to remain in the conversation, and Starling Marte in that outfield with Magneuris Sierra and Corey Dickerson could be genuinely dangerous. Marte is still a league-caliber bat with some more damage to do this season, and even if the Marlins only make it a short while into the playoffs, having Marte could bring them a little more life than otherwise.

#1, of course: Mike Clevinger and Greg Allen to the Padres, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges and Josh Naylor to the Indians

How it Benefits Cleveland: Honestly, in a longer term scenario, the Indians might have gotten more out of this, because Josh Naylor is gonna replace Domingo Santana as DH, Austin Hedges will add another [sub-.200] catcher to the rolodex, and Cal Quantrill should be a steady replacement for Clevinger, at least in terms of likability.

How it Benefits San Diego: So, now the Padres' rotation is Clevinger-Paddack-Lamet-Davies-Richards. That's, uh...that's pretty good, especially for a team that now has a better bullpen, bench and lineup. Clevinger might be the cherry on top of all the other moves, because he gives the team a genuine ace, someone they might have had with Chris Paddack had he gotten off to a better start this year. Clevinger will lead this rotation into the playoffs, where they should be welcomed. Also, Greg Allen is another nice bench bat, along with Moreland. 

Huge deadline this year. Lots of odd moves and outcomes. Interested to see how the rest of the season rolls out now.

Nobody O's

Last night, it finally happened: the Orioles won their 20th game of the season, becoming the 30th team to do so this season. This was a mark the Kansas City Royals had beaten them to the previous night, and the Orioles were determined to not let their general futility stop them from winning 20 games by June.

So, unsurprisingly, the Orioles are the worst team in baseball right now. Not without a lack of effort, just...with a lack of competent ballplayers. I look at this lineup, and with the exception of Jonathan Villar and Trey Mancini, all of these players, on any other team, would be hitting off the bench or still be in the minors. But because the O's have traded away or lost a lot of their previous talent, this is the team we're left with.

The best you can say is that the pitching has improved; John Means, Dylan Bundy and Andrew Cashner are all relatively competent starters, Paul Fry and Shawn Armstrong are impressive relievers, and...when Mychal Givens decides to close a game, he's alright at it. But...when you've got three lineup pieces hitting under the Mendoza line, and one of them is the guy you signed a mega-contract to a few years ago, you have to wonder if you set yourself up for this.

And look, there are sprouts coming up. Hanser Alberto and Renato Nunez are hitting, Pedro Severino is finally blossoming into a nice starting catcher, and of course Mancini's doing pretty well. But...I don't know how long the O's are gonna have to wait for this team to amount to anything. Because even the mega-prospects, like Richie Martin, DJ Stewart and Cedric Mullins, aren't working this year. And I don't know what will for them.

It's sad...and you've got to hope for the best for the O's.

Coming Tonight: Shockingly, a pitcher from a perennially-bad team that's actually doing better.

Some Depressing Orioles Stats

The Baltimore Oriole, and by that I mean the guy who's still on the Orioles right now, with the highest WAR is Miguel Castro, a reliever with a 4.00 ERA, 57 strikeouts and a 1.5 WHIP. Nobody on this frigging team can do better than that, or get higher than a 1.3 WAR. Yes, Manny Machado has a 3 WAR, but he's in LA right now headed for October.

Also depressing: Jonathan Villar has a 1.2 WAR within 2 months of being with the team, and that's the third-highest on the team. Villar did better in 2 months than 98% of this team did in 8. This includes perennial All Star Adam Jones, home-run champs Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis, and legitimately tough pitcher Dylan Bundy. None of them even have a .4 WAR.

The O's have just relied on bargain pickups like Villar and Renato Nunez to do their best to salvage the team, and make sure they don't chase the 1962 Mets for worst ever. The bulk of their positive investments this year have all been traded to teams that are worth a damn. And I remind you...this team was in the ALCS four years ago. This team could have been in the World Series in 2014. And they've fallen apart beyond repair, to the point where they need to start over as much as possible, and build a new team around people like Nunez, Villar, and Cedric Mullins. Because this year was a major embarrassment, and I'm sad to see it come from such a likable team.

I hope things get better. It just might be a while.

Coming Tonight- A fringe player of the highest caliber, finally getting his due as the starting catcher for a playoff hopeful.

I don't really have much to say about the Brewers...

...so here's a Jonathan Villar custom.

Isn't it nice?

I'll get you a post with substance tomorrow, I promise...