The Reds Rotation, This Time With Depth

 

For two years running the same thing has wounded the Reds. They can get a glut of young, fierce starters together, and have them all be MLB ready, but they can't stay healthy enough to bring the team forward much. And then the depth options go and pretty soon the Reds are flying through starters like paperclips. Julian Aguiar, Carson Spiers, Casey Legumina, eventually Rhett Lowder, all of them thrust into starting roles, perhaps too quickly, due to a lack of healthy options. And unlike some teams, who can lose all their starters and still win a World Series, the Reds are actually set back by this. Y'know, like you're supposed to be.

And so, perhaps even with the presence of Terry Francona adding common sense, the Reds finally have a pitching formula that seems successful. Seriously. Trust me, this one's gonna work.

To refresh, the Reds began the season with a rotation consisting of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers. Not...ideal, to be very honest, and you can tell a few people [Williamson, Lowder, Abbott for a spell] were too injured to start the season with the team. But...that's still five proven starting options...with depth options behind him. Graham Ashcraft began this season in the bullpen [and he's been doing extremely well], but...were something to go wrong, THERE is the depth starter. Same with Brent Suter. That was what Nick Martinez was here for, he's already in the rotation anyhow. The Reds NEEDED guys like this, 'break in case of emergency' guys who could ensure the rotation doesn't drown again. Plus, Andrew Abbott returned yesterday, and did very well against the Pirates, so now the Reds have three depth options with Ashcraft, Suter and Spiers. 

I'm saying this like it's revolutionary but it kind of is for the Reds. Their whole thing is moving forward with their hard-throwing pitchers and being gobsmacked when they get injured. So this change of pace does instill a bit more confidence, especially considering the quality of starting pitching thus far.

Hunter Greene, as he should be, is the standout. So far he's got a 1.31 ERA, 23 Ks and a very low 0.629 WHIP.  This is the kind of material Greene is capable of now that he knows not to fully focus on flame throwing. Nick Lodolo has been similarly on target so far, with a 0.96 ERA despite lower strikeout totals. And Brady Singer, as anyone could have told you upon the India trade, has benefited from a much less cutthroat rotation environment. He's 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 18 Ks, and has been consistent without being terribly flashy. I'm glad he's finally in position to do so. 

The Reds themselves still aren't perfect. They had McLain then lost him, and...now that they've lost their best hitter, people besides Elly need to step up and they haven't yet. Gavin Lux, CES, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario have all been excessively mediocre. Without Alexis Diaz they're surviving on Emilio Pagan, but who knows how long that'll last. But having the rotation in place really helps, and suggests a much better 2025, and a road to competition. A lot more will need to come into line, but for now this will do.

Coming Tonight: The Mariners have farmed a lot of great young pitchers, but he might be their triumph.

Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Slightly Smaller Frying Pan

 

Thinking about this trade the Royals and Reds made, which brings Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to Kansas City in exchange for Brady Singer, I...think it makes sense, but I think that one side thought it through more than the others.

Okay, let's talk about where this trade works. And there is some of it that works on the Kansas City end. Jonathan India is the exact kind of middle infield piece that the Royals needed. Pasquantino and Witt are firmly in place, and Massey and Garcia are...fine. Massey had a decent rebound season, Garcia's was a step down from his 2023. One of those two could be a swing piece, India could fit right into 2nd, and that infield could really be something. I also like India's odds in that lineup; he doesn't need to be THE defining piece, but he's a great piece that can get some contact work done. 

That also works to clear up the now-crowded Cincinnati infield, which will have the return of Matt McLain at 2nd, CES back at 1st and Candelario and Marte at third, in addition to Elly remaining at short. Keeping India in that scenario complicates things too much, and he's got more room in Kansas City I think.

And then you can also say that the Reds had too many outfielders, and the Royals' OF isn't set in stone yet, so Wiemer's better off for KC than Cincinnati. So that works too.

...but it's the Brady Singer part that confuses me a bit.

Okay. So Brady Singer was really good in 2022, right? And he was primed to be one of the premier young starters in the game. Then 2023 he has a down year, and everyone sort of...backs off that. Cole Ragans shows up, the Royals get Lugo and Wacha, the pressure's off. And so in 2024, Singer has a decent enough season, 9-13 with a 3.71 ERA and 170 strikeouts, but he's no longer the most crucial arm in that rotation. So, going into 2025, the Royals have Lugo, Ragans, Wacha, Alec Marsh, and some combination of Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright, assuming neither get cut soon. We're looking at a rotation that no longer has room for Brady Singer.

So let's look at where he's going, the Reds' rotation, who will be using all of the following as starting options in 2025: Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft and Julian Aguiar. Now, obviously you have to factor in injuries, people starting in the minors, but that's eight guys. And I know they're overestimating this because for the second year in a row the Reds got caught with their pants down again because too many starters got injured. So they're trying to employ a strategy that prevents this. But now this ninth guy enters the equation, and he does so as a major league option, so that means Rhett Lowder likely will have to fight harder for a rotation spot, Nick Martinez will likely be starting the season out of the 'pen, and if multiple people who were injured this year are ready at spring training, it's gonna lead to some awkward decisions.

So yes, the Royals no longer had room for Brady Singer. But the Reds have even LESS room, even as a team creating back molars and wisdom teeth for the rotation essentially. So unless the Reds are interested in swinging Singer for another trade, they're gonna be holding the bag like this. Maybe they have a plan with all of this, but it just seems excessive and misguided.

Who knows, maybe Singer works more than India, but I'm not sold with KC's decision to give Singer a harder time yet. Maybe I'll warm up to it.

Bottom-Feeding in the AL Central

 

The last several years, the AL Central has been more competitive staying out of last than staying in first. Even in the years with an overwhelming favorite like the 2020 White Sox or the 2019 Twins, everyone else has sort of shrugged on by without making much of an effort. The 2022 season famously consisted of a showdown between two teams that kept tripping over their shoelaces.

And seeing this happen while the east and west divisions are both loaded with competitive teams is kind of fascinating. It's not that the AL Central is wholly terrible, it's just that the majority of the teams there are in downswing form. It's also not coincidental that all the money's on the east and west and the central teams are mostly lower-budget teams waiting to build something up. 

I will say that things do look better for a majority of the teams in this division. The Tigers have a lot of more confident, composed pieces on their roster, and I think they'll genuinely compete this year. The Guardians and Twins will continue to chase first given their big pieces and emphasis on contact and excellent rotations. And while that normally would leave a definite outcome for the last two positions...it may not be that simple.

The Royals would thereby be pinned at fourth, and I really don't think they look like a team compared to do that. This season has been primed for even more of a breakout year for Bobby Witt, a rebound year for Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch, and the arrival of pieces like Nick Loftin who are just waiting for a breakout moment. I also see a more confident stocking of the roster in how people like Seth Lugo, Will Smith, Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson are being used. Finding some roster flexibility from within isn't completely working yet, let's see if we can stock this thing with trusted veterans and see if that works. It's still a not-too-flashy low budget contact strategy, but I see a lot in this team that could work, especially if some of the injury prone guys from 2023 [Pasquantino, Lynch, Garcia] can be reliable this year.

I do not see the Royals being a first place team this year, solely because they're a few OMG pieces away from that. I thought they were ready last year, and then Brady Singer turned out to not be as consistent as I thought. And look, on one hand, I really don't want to amount Brady Singer to one decent year around a few mediocre ones, but unless he figures this out in 2024, that might be what we're looking at. And if that's the case, and being that they're without Kris Bubic and now probably Michael Wacha for a bit, the Royals need to hope that a homegrown ace is coming relatively soon. Because it was supposed to be Singer, and now I'm not sure if it is anymore.

As for the Chicago White Sox, logic would dictate that they're a last place team this year. They have little to no pitching, their Opening Day starter is Garrett Crochet [and say what you will about Alex Wood getting Opening Day for the A's, but at least Alex Wood is known for starting games well], the rest of the rotation is just guys that didn't work in other markets and they're starting renters at major positions. 

But...they still have Luis Robert. So unless they're really listless aside from him, you can't completely count them out.

The 2024 Sox looks like a lot of 'well, that's be interesting if it worked' type of guys. You know, if Benintendi actually performed to 2019-caliber, that'd be interesting. Or if Nicky Lopez, Paul DeJong and Dominic Fletcher can prove they can start admirably, that'd be interesting. Or if Michael Soroka or Erick Fedde are for real after all of that, it'd really be something. But there's not a lot, other than Robert, to really rest one's weight on. Even Yoan Moncada, who at one point was the can't-miss guy that would help lead the Sox to the playoffs, can't even be trusted when he's actually hitting well in Spring Training. 

It's genuinely depressing, even with the knowledge that this is the first year of a new regime, and that they're moving on from Kenny Williams' meddling. Pedro Grifol may be a decent choice to lead this team through an era like this, though I don't think he'll stick around to see them compete. It's not like the Oli Marmol thing where the club likes him more than the players, fans or anyone else watching does. They're waiting and seeing with Grifol just like the rest of us, and I think they're relieved it's not LaRussa anymore.

The plan for the White Sox is just to let this current regime sort of fade off and see what young guys can inherit the team next. Meaning 2024 might be a slog, and it's not even certain that Robert will be there by the end of it. Still, it'll be interesting to see how exactly it rolls out them.

The Brady Crunch

 

Kinda funny how things turn around. A couple weeks ago I was seriously wondering if the A's would out-do their worst-ever record, and now the Royals have more losses than they do. Not that it's a race, but...the Royals aren't exactly winning.

The Royals do have highlights this year, like Bobby Witt Jr. becoming a star, Cole Ragans having a lights-out August, Freddy Fermin making a case to be the next Royals catcher, and Maikel Garcia providing a taste of a more contact-friendly team. Other than that, barely anything to speak of. Lot of replacement levels guys like Jordan Lyles, Michael Massey and M.J. Melendez, guys who are great defensively but can't hit [looking at you, Kyle Isbel], and a few people who were supposed to perform better this year.

And while a few of the 2023 surefires fading off I can get, as Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic and Brad Keller all got injured, Brady Singer's 2023 may be the most damning aspect of this team. Going into this year he was primed for great things, and was coming off a 2022 where he went 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA, his best season by far. For whatever reason, despite consistent innings, things just did not click for Singer this year, and though his last few starts have been better, he's still one of three Royals starters to lose 10 or more games, and the only one under 30 at that, and has a 5.15 ERA that he just can't seem to get down. It's a big misstep on the way to a come-up several people thought was coming this year. Mitch Keller had the year that I figured Singer would have, and what's funny is that while Keller has struggled down the stretch, Singer has improved since the ASG break and was turning it around before a few consecutive 4-run games.

With all the injuries, and with Singer being out for a few days on paternity leave, the Royals have been left with an infuriatingly low amount of sure bets in the rotation. Lyles and Greinke are still around, but both are having really rough seasons. Alec Marsh has been starting games recently, and it has not gone well for him. Angel Zerpa is healthy and starting and he's got a 7.04 ERA. In Singer's absence, Ragans has been the only competent one. And in a rotation that was supposed to feature Bubic, Daniel Lynch and Brad Keller, that's an extremely crushing feeling. It's the same 'well let's just wait 4 days and maybe we'll win' kinda thing the Yankees went though last month.

You can only hope that this rotation is healthier and more consistent next year, because that's one of the ways they can avoid an 100-loss season, which has become all too common in KC. If Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Ragans all are better next year, that'll be an improvement. It's just seeming like a lot to ask for now.

Coming Tonight: Like Greinke, a legend who may be at the end of his rope.

Just a Singer

 

In one fell swoop, the Kansas City Royals lost an outfielder, a second baseman, a third baseman and a backup catcher. But, remarkably, lost no pitchers, and, in fact, GAINED a pitcher thanks to a deal with Arizona. So even if 2022 seems to be a wash...this team still is looking good for the future.

I'm still kind of stunned that even potential deadline targets like Brad Keller and Scott Barlow stuck around. Both are having great seasons, both get to finish them in KC. This is good. Additionally, the host of young pitchers remains. Brady Singer, after starting the season in the bullpen, has become the team's best starter, and leads the team with his 3.67 ERA and his 94 Ks. Daniel Lynch and Brad Keller are also having decent seasons, as was Jon Heasley before he got trapped under Zack Greinke's return. Kris Bubic isn't having the greatest season, but he's still a long way from where he was earlier. And then you have all the bullpen arms, like Dylan Coleman, Josh Staumont and Taylor Clarke. You're even seeing some further signs of this team's future with Angel Zerpa, but...MAN did he pick the wrong time to get injured. I am seeing some real promise from that guy, and he just keeps getting real unlucky.

The youth energy has also spread to the rest of the team, with Nick Pratto going from a vax-drought fill-in to, well, a major candidate for the starting 1st baseman slot. Pratto's only hitting .184, but those power numbers are intriguing. Having him and Bobby Witt together is cool, cause they could be running this team in a few years. Same with M.J. Melendez, who, while he's not having the greatest season, still has 11 homers as a catcher. And now people like Nate Eaton and Michael Massey are up and hitting, and...are we really seeing the next stage of this team form before our eyes?

I mean, maybe it's the injuries and trades that have made room for it all, but the next generation of Royals is looking pretty damn good. Maybe not good enough to completely run the team yet, but it's the kind of youth movement that they should be pretty impressed with right now. Bobby Witt's having a great rookie year, and that's just the tip of the iceberg.

There's gonna be more slots opening up as veterans leave. I don't know what Zack Greinke's planning for next year, but I do think there's a chance of a rotation spot opening up. Perez is only on the first year of his contract, but when he feels like it's time to move to DH full time to let somebody like Melendez or another rookie to own the position, I think he will. Mondesi might even get cut, because he hasn't been around much the last few years. I do think next year is going to be very telling in terms of where this youth movement is with its development. They could be ready for a trial run. It could be a year or so away. It's gonna rely on a lot of factors, but...you never know when these guys will be ready.

After all, the Royals always come out of spring training hot. Who's to say they won't just...forget to come back down soon enough? 

Coming Tomorrow- A fun rookie for the Cubs who's been completely overshadowing the Cubs rookie I thought would be the big story this year.

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #217-225

 Onto another 9 cards of the 2020 Final Edition set. We're very close to having less than 100 cards left to cover in this set, and I'm already setting up more Topps Cards That Should Have Been cards for after we're done here. Still, we have 2020 to keep wrapping up, so onward we go...

Card #217- Clayton Kershaw ASG, Los Angeles Dodgers

2020 marked the beginning of the Kershawnaissiance. After a few seasons of injuries, slightly more elevated ERAs [like 3], and stepping back to let Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler excel, Clayton Kershaw finally struck back and had another classic, incredible year. So while I don't think he would have started the ASG for the NL, had the 2020 ASG happened, I think it'd be necessary for the home crowd at Dodger Stadium for Kersh to show up in some capacity. Whatever, it'll happen again soon.

Card #218- David Phelps, Philadelphia Phillies

Phelps was yet another attempt at revitalizing the sorry, pitiful Phillies bullpen last year, and after his impressive Brewers start, he was a fine idea, especially considering his prior connection to Phils skipper Joe Girardi. But...the ineptitude of the Philly bullpen sucked David Phelps in as well, with 12.91 ERA in 10 games. TWELVE...NINETY-ONE. And eleven earned runs a game, meaning 1 earned run per game, which no reliever wants. It was not a good stretch for Phelps. Thankfully, he's doing a lot better in Toronto right now.

Card #219- Jonathan Lucroy, Boston Red Sox

Another zero-year type card. Jonathan Lucroy was a spring training signee, after a disappointing end to the 2019 season with Chicago, in Boston. He'd be fighting for a backup role behind Christian Vazquez, and he was a bit removed from his career peak. So while he didn't make the team, he did squeeze in a single game of MLB service last year, without a place appearance or an at-bat. He was a defensive substitution, then he suddenly wasn't needed anymore. The Washington Nationals used Lucroy similarly in 2021 before setting him aside once Yan Gomes and Alex Avila returned.

Card #220- Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals

One of the big rookies out of camp last season. Brady Singer made the Royals to begin the season, and made the rotation right off the bat. While he took a bit to really get acclimated to AL play, Singer still finished strong in 2020, with a 4.06 ERA and 61 Ks in 12 games. He's currently a trusted lower-tier member of the rotation, behind Danny Duffy and...ERVIN SANTANA? THE HELL'S HE DOING HERE?

Card #221- Lance Lynn ASG, Texas Rangers

[Not sure why the siding isn't in this one. My apologies]

Lance Lynn had an even stronger 2020 in Arlington than he did a 2019. 89 Ks in 13 starts tells you everything you need to know about Lynn, as well as how dominant he can be even in a shortened season. Lynn would have been an easy pick for the ASG, as well as, most likely, the only Texas Ranger on the AL team. Lynn's taken a step down currently with the White Sox, but he's still capable of big games.

Card #222- Carlos Estevez, Colorado Rockies

I shouldn't have to explain to you all why a state known for its use of recreational drugs having a relief pitcher named Carlos Estevez is funny. Do a little research into stage names, maybe. Anyway, hotshot Carlos Estevez had another full season as relief specialist in Denver last year, and things went a little south compared to his usual numbers, with a 7.50 ERA in 26 games. He's off to a better start this year, though. 

Card #223- Brock Holt, Washington Nationals

Brock Holt began the 2020 season as an infield option with the Milwaukee Brewers. Unfortunately, in 16 games with the Brewers, he could not hit for shit. So he was released, then almost immediately was picked up by the Nationals, a team still struggling to land on a competent infield picture. Holt was a pretty strong choice as a 2B/SS type, hitting .262 with 4 RBIs in 20 games. He's been pulling similar numbers in Arlington thus far, though he days of pulling higher than replacement level may be behind him.

Card #224- Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Something aligned last year when Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy were all active in the same rotation at the same time- other than, you know, the Astros pulling into the playoffs. All three homegrown latino talents were enough to provide an x-factor for the team, which is desperately needed in the absence of Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke's better numbers. Valdez actually pitched more innings than any other Astros starter, had a 5-3 record with 76 Ks, and had a 3-1 record and a 1.88 ERA during the postseason, with 26 Ks as well. Valdez is currently injured, but like Verlander he'll likely be back with a vengeance rather soon.

Card #225- Jonathan Villar, Toronto Blue Jays

Since leaving the Baltimore Orioles, Jonathan Villar has played for three teams that have absolutely no room for him. The first was the Marlins, who brought him on for 2020, and had him hit .259 while also surrounded by more viable defensive options. So Villar was Miami's sole trade deadline loss, as he was acquired by fellow competitor the Blue Jays...who ALSO did not have a place for Villar, with an already-set infield. So Villar's .188 average really did nothing for them, postseason notwithstanding. And now Villar plays for the Mets, who ALSO kind of had their infield pretty tight before the season, and is mostly a bench bat type. Glad the O's got the last good numbers out of this guy, I guess.

The next 9 cards, which you'll see on Friday, feature one of the biggest rookies of 2021 and one of the biggest trade deadline deals of 2020. 

Royal Rumble

 The Kansas City Royals were one of the best teams in Spring Training camp. And the sportswriters thought this was nothing.

Yet in the first week of AL Central play, the Royals have managed to squeak out the best record, even accounting for the Twins, White Sox and Indians. They've gotten great starts out of Mike Minor and Danny Duffy, have won games despite botched starts by Brad Keller thanks to the strong bullpen, and have people like Michael Taylor and Whit Merrifield hitting beautifully. They are making moves like a team that's three or four steps ahead of where they should be, and are utilizing a World Series-caliber manager like Mike Matheny correctly.

The rotation is the most intriguing part of this, because the goal was to rely on the youth, like Brad Keller and Brady Singer, but those two have had the shakiest starts so far. Singer has walked away with the team's sole loss, despite being one of the people I was expecting to have a nice season in KC. It's the veterans, including Duffy and Minor, and bullpen vets like Greg Holland and Wade Davis [shit, what is this, 2015??] that are keeping everything in line.

Similarly in the lineup, while newcomer Kyle Isbel has made quite a splash in a starting outfield position, it's the veteran signees who are impressing the most right now. Michael Taylor has 6 RBIs and a .438 average. Carlos Santana has 3 RBIs already. Hanser Alberto is batting .308. Heck, even longtime backup infielder Nicky Lopez is hitting .400 covering for Adalberto Mondesi. This lineup, and this team, is coming together in a way not glimpsed since around 2017.

And the weirdest part is that we're 6 years removed from the championship run, and we still have a few pieces from it remaining. Yes, Mondi counts cause he was brought up in that series, but Salvador Perez and Danny Duffy are still here, meaning that we haven't even gone so far as to completely re-root the Royals team in order for them to be good again. Heck, Holland, Davis and Jarrod Dyson have left and come back to join the fight again. This is very rare.

I don't know if this good feeling is gonna last the whole season in Kansas City, but with the way everyone's playing right now, I kinda hope it does. It'd be a nice wrench in the plans of everyone in the division, and it'll be cool to see people scramble.

Coming Tonight: Things aren't going as planned for the Cardinals? That's terrible. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Royals

 

For a season without much to note for the Royals, I sure missed some big ones this year.

I only have six Royals for December, but three of them are ones I should have gotten to during the regular season. And that includes Brady Singer. This guy was a rookie that began the season in the rotation and acted like he'd been doing this for years. Singer started 12 games, had a 4.06 record, and led the team in strikeouts with 61. Brad Keller may have had more bang for his buck, but Singer was more consistent and a clear sign of the next few seasons of Royals baseball.

2021 Prediction: 200 strikeouts, not enough wins given this is a rebuilding Royals team, and an ASG nomination. 

I also should have done an Adalberto Mondesi custom during the season, on account of him LEADING THE LEAGUE IN STOLEN BASES. Who would have called that??? Mondi had a decent year, with .256 with 22 RBIs in 59 games for KC, and is still a crucial member of the core of this team. 

2021 Prediction: He'll be playing beautifully for the first two months before an injury sidelines him til September. 

Danny Duffy has been a consistent member of the Royals for a decade, even in weaker seasons. 2020 was a pretty neutral year for the Duffman- a 4-4 record in 11 starts, a 4.95 ERA and 57 Ks. He's not as sharp as he used to be, but he still had some strong games this year.

2021 Prediction: By July, there will be enough youth in the rotation that Duffy will be able to transition seamlessly to the bullpen.

Hunter Dozier came off the IL in August, and while he did his best to match his strong, ASG-caliber 2019, it wasn't much of a match. In 44 games, Dozier hit .228 with 12 RBIs. Not too great, despite some decent power numbers.

2021 Prediction: If he doesn't hit for average by June, he'll be DFA'd. 

The other rookie starting pitcher for KC was a crafty one named Kris Bubic. His 1-6 ERA and high WHIP hide the fact that he still had a 4.32 ERA and 49 Ks, and is a really interesting, clever pitcher just with some control issues.

2021 Prediction: 10 wins, a low WHIP, and some external factor that limits him to 22 games.

Of course, 2020 was the final one for Alex Gordon, a guy that's been a Royal since the year I started collecting. Gordo had some great power years and defensive years in the 2010s, and while he didn't exactly live up to expectations, he was still a consistent player and a Royals HOFer for sure. His mediocre 2020 stats, like a .209 average and 11 RBIs, were an afterthought. Gordon will be missed, and the Royals will need to establish a new type of consistency to live up to.

Coming Tomorrow- I genuinely have a ton of Detroit Tigers for tomorrow.