UnSiri-ous

 

For a division as close as the AL East, there's other tactics at this stage to really separate teams. You can tell who had the early upward momentum that are now heading downward [the Red Sox], or which teams that started off cold are beginning to find their footing [Jays]. The Rays, however, have the worst SRS figure in the AL, meaning their run differential contrasts wildly with the strength of their opponents so far. This means dropping games to not only evenly-matched teams, like the Jays, Angels and Giants, but the worst team in the NL. Their -2.0 SRS is worse than the A's, and even the White Sox, meaning the White Sox have at least been as bad as expected given their schedule.

It illuminates the fact that the Rays...might be just plain okay this year. The big newsmakers are either injured [Brandon Lowe, Shane McClanahan, Josh Lowe], slumping [Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz], or...I dunno, kinda there but not wowing anybody [Zach Eflin, Jose Siri]. There's only two people currently with more than 10 RBIs, one is Diaz and the other is Isaac Paredes. The big average guys are people like Amed Rosario and Ben Rortvedt. There's a ton of starters that are clearly fill-ins and shouldn't be; Rene Pinto, Curtis Mead and Richie Palacios are contingency plans, not starters. Again, it's not their fault the starting shortstop for the next 10 years decided to ruin it all by being a creep. This is the path that has been chosen for the Tampa Bay Rays, despite the best laid plans of everyone who put this team together.

And I think you're beginning to see the limits of this team in that respect. If the big guys the team is centered around can't do anything, the team just...isn't as good. Having all people from other farm systems lining the team works if it leads somewhere. This year, the heart of the lineup is Paredes and Siri. Isaac Paredes has 5 homers and 12 RBIs. Jose Siri has struck out 32 times in 20 games. Yes, he has defensive perks and can get stuff done at the plate but his dimensions are falling off. Aaron Civale is essentially the ace this year, and even in Cleveland he had someone like Shane Bieber to work behind; here he's got a 2.74 ERA but I don't think it's ace material. Even Ryan Pepiot, who had some monster starts to begin the season, has leveled out to a 4 ERA and a 2-2 record.

And yet the Rays are still above .500 by two games and winning series'. This is still a decent team, and playing in the AL East allows an 11-9 start to blend in, because even the worst teams in this division are still doing better than most of the other divisions. The quality is so high that the Rays having a rough start still comes off as a win for them. 

This week they play the Yankees, who had a monster start but are cooling down a bit. Logically, the Yankees outmatch the Rays in almost every way, but this is a team that can give us trouble. We'll see how the Rays show tonight, and if that says anything for what we'll see from them the rest of the season.

Coming Tomorrow- I figured he'd have a miserable last contracted season and then his team started playing really well.

You May Be Wandering...

 

A year in a half into the only 11-year contract the Rays ever felt the need to give out after years of letting people walk, a funny thing happened.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been a lot of things since changing their name and becoming one of the most crafty and interesting teams in the majors. But I don't think anyone would really be able to call them 'unlucky'. A lot of their aesthetic is things falling into place at the exact right time. Randy Arozarena landing in Tampa and becoming a hero right before a World Series run. Evan Longoria being ready for the majors right when things are moving towards the Rays' first ever division title. That Delmon Young trade that netted the Rays essentially 15 years of overwhelmingly good prospects in exchange for a power hitter they at one point thought was the future. Most famously, Joe Maddon leaving, Kevin Cash entering, and an entirely new outside-the-box managerial regime beginning without there being even the slightest misstep in between [like a Bobby Valentine year in between Francona and Farrell]. 

But the Rays' biggest misstep may have happened now, in the midst of a season that began with the team's monumental winning streak and proceeded with some killer seasons. The heartbreaking thing is many of these seasons have stopped in their tracks. Noted bigot Jeffrey Springs got injured after being damn near untouchable. Then Shane McClanahan got injured after a Cy Young-caliber campaign. And then, 112 games into a season that could result in MVP votes, Wander Franco gets caught in a teen's DMs and now the guy they spent hundreds of millions of dollars on for the next ten years probably will never play baseball again. That is the single worst snowball of luck that the Rays have ever encountered, and need I remind you how many seasons Evan Longoria stayed healthy for?

Just yesterday I saw an ESPN profile on a Rays player, and it was Randy Arozarena. And in the back of my head, I had to think, 'was that supposed to be Wander and things got shifted?'. This happened this week as well, Empire released a big magazine rollout on Dune Part Two a day after its release was shifted, and they had to sort of go on with it anyway. So as good as Arozarena was, I have to think about the narrative around the Rays. Initially a lot of the story of this team centered around Franco, the unstoppable prospect that rocketed up to the bigs, had a great run as a rookie, battled injuries his sophomore year, and became an MLB fixture. And now that Franco's a no-no, there has to be a different narrative. Like, now it's back to 'well look at all these pieces they made a great team out of'. That's been the narrative for the past five years. We thought we had something new, now we don't. 

So now this Rays team is sort of back to where it was, and it's trying to win that way, and that's all well and good but why do I have this sneaking suspicion that the Rays are gonna trade a bunch of these guys anyway during the offseason. Y'know, Brandon Lowe and Harold Ramirez thinking they're safe, suddenly they're thrown somewhere else just cause the Rays wanna save money. And this'll happen even if the Rays still do well this year, which is likely considering they're still within reach of Baltimore. 

The thing is, without Wander it's hard for them to seem wholly legitimate. Look, it's very nice that Jose Siri's got 24 home runs with only 88 games under his belt, but it'd look a lot better if Siri was any good of a defender. Without McClanahan, the team's best pitcher is Zach Eflin, who can still get roughed up by the Yankees every so often. I still think the rotation's incomplete and I still think the bullpen pales in comparison to past iterations. And while Jason Adam and Jalen Beeks are no longer the most morally reprehensible people on the active roster, they're also struggling to recreate their 2022 magic.

It's been up to people like Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe to keep things rolling for the Rays, and while they're still very much in the race, they're not the overwhelming favorites they once were, and there's still a ton of internal problems that could keep them back. Also, any attempt to make them likable has failed now that the Wander stuff has arisen.

The Rays could still go far this year. But I'll always wonder what they could have been had they not banked so hard on someone awful. 

Coming Tonight: Someone that makes me a lot happier than the Rays, and he's been hitting so well recently as well.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Rays

 

I only have 3 Rays for Uncustomed Heroes this year. 3 of them.

The way these Rays teams work, there's such a ragtag, piecemeal quality that either players are gonna stand out and have great seasons or they're gonna fade into the background and not really warrant a custom from me. One of these, the one I'm starting with, is a stretch because he was so good in one category and so terrible in others. And while there are a few players who had great seasons for the Rays that I haven't customized yet, a lot of them are ones that picketed the team's pride month patches, and I'm not gonna glorify any of them with a custom. So Jeffrey Springs, Jason Adam, Jalen Beeks and Ryan Thompson won't be showing up here.

Anyway, the Rays had another weird season, failed when a lot of their best players got injured, and got taken out in the playoffs by Cleveland. Big whoop. I'm really sick of these Rays teams just getting to the end with like 20 players I've never heard of because they refuse to actually pay the people that succeed for them. Already, we know that Ji-Man Choi, Ralph Garza, Kevin Kiermaier, J.T. Chargois, J.P. Feyereisen and Mike Zunino won't be back. That's...a lot of players that the Rays didn't even try to keep around.

But they did keep Taylor Walls. Taylor Walls...look, I understand that defense is important. I understand that Walls may be one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. But...folks, doing just one thing really really well, except if you're Mariano Rivera or Phil Niekro, isn't always gonna do it for me. Walls can play amazing defense, yes, but he cannot hit. Walls hit .172 this year, with 120 strikeouts and only 70 hits. He struck out a little under half as many times as he got a hit. I get that Wander Franco was out and Walls was a great choice to cover, but Walls also appeared in the second-most amount of games, and had the third-most at-bats, of this team. No wonder they lost so early in the playoffs! If you are essentially ensuring that one lineup spot is gonna go to a guy who cannot hit, you're asking for it.

2023 Prediction: Please tell me he just has a backup/def. replacement season. Let Wander have short, please. You signed him for a billion years as a result of a half-year, and that's money the Rays won't give to anyone else on the team. Just...stop this foolishness at once.

The Rays' big deadline move was trading David Peralta away from his beloved Diamondbacks as an outfield addition to Tampa. Peralta, in 47 games, hit .255 with 18 RBIs and zero of the home runs he hit 30 of during his prime. He only had one at-bat in the wild card series, and it was a strikeout. Taylor Walls had 5 postseason at-bats, he struck out twice. I...I think I hate the Rays.

2023 Prediction: I think Peralta's prime is over, and everyone else seems to know this as well. I don't think anybody big will sign him, maybe a middle-rung competitor. Maybe the Rangers, honestly.

The deal that raised my eyebrows the most was the Rays trading for Jose Siri in the Trey Mancini deal. Jose Siri had been doing well in Houston, but it was getting crowded and he was getting overshadowed. I thought Tampa would be the perfect market for him. In 56 games he hit .241 with 14 RBIs, 4 homers and 8 steals. However, Siri has been heating up in the winter leagues, and hit .315 with 6 RBIs in 21 games for the Gigantes this year. I think he's gearing up for a big year in the majors.

2023 Prediction: Siri will be the Randy Arozarena, 'holy shit how did the Rays get this guy' kind of breakout next year. He might even have some decent postseason numbers to sadden me with.

Tomorrow, a mercifully pathetic Red Sox team.

Championship Series Day 6: Clinching Positions Good and Bad

 

So, uh...Astros didn't really need the umps' help on this one.

This game came down to both the unstoppable Astros offense and Framber Valdez, who's been pitching beautifully this season, and had another really nice start last night. People are saying, however, that there was something suspicious about how Valdez rubbed his temple every time he got a new ball, and that it's funny that the umps aren't checking him for substances. 

Regardless, this lineup is on fire, putting up 9 runs in two consecutive games, leading with the same pack [Brantley, Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman], and now adding the young Jose Siri to the mix. They're getting stronger with every game, and unless the Red Sox manage to pull some serious offense together on the road, the Astros will be going to another World Series. I don't want it to happen, you don't want it to happen, but at this point it might be inevitable. 

Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, another team jumped on the 9 runs bandwagon, and it wasn't the home team. I have a Drew Smyly custom here because he got the win, honestly should have started [why start JESSE CHAVEZ when Ynoa gets bounced?], and leveled the Dodgers, with the bullpen's help, after things got going. But...if I hadn't already posted my Eddie Rosario custom twice, it'd go here, cause that man was on fire last night. He was a double away from a cycle and decided to hit a 3-run homer off of Tony Gonsolin just because he could. As tepid as Rosario has been as a contact hitter with Minnesota and Cleveland recently, the man has absolutely taken off in Atlanta, and is having the best stretch of his career by far. 

Plus, the rest of the lineup is helping out, as Freddie Freeman and Adam Duvall also had big moments last night. Things are looking really balanced, and the lack of Ronald Acuna, and Jorge Soler, is not hurting this team at all. Which is wonderful. 

The Braves are 3-1, and have one more game in LA tonight. This could be a clincher, but remember, these are the Dodgers we're talking about. The Giants had a lead too, and look what happened to them.