2022: At Long Last, Lunacy

 

We were all worried that we wouldn't even get a season this year, and now here it is...like, a week behind schedule. All things considered, not too bad.

With the accelerated end to the offseason, the truncated team reshuffling, and the roulette wheel that was Spring Training, there are a lot of stories heading into this season, and several potential outcomes for how things might go. Because of the encouragement to compete rather than sell, I can name 24 out of 30 teams that have made steps to go for it this year. Maybe 25 if you count the Guardians like everyone else seems to be. The time to tank seems to be over, and everyone genuinely seems to be trying their best to bring home a title. Which means we might get some exotic teams in the mix this year, like the Tigers, Marlins, Rockies and Phillies. 

As I did last year, I'm gonna make 5 wild predictions for how the season's going to go. These are gonna be big and broad and with a low expectation of success, but last year I did predict Corbin Burnes' NL Cy Young win, and I did predict Jonathan India's NL ROY win, so I'm better at this than most might think.

1. Kris Bryant is going to regret not signing with a better team. This isn't to completely disparage the Rockies, who at least have made strides to keep Ryan McMahon, C.J. Cron, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland intact as many other pieces have left, but...I was not expecting them to pick up Kris Bryant, and it's a decision that still vexes me, especially when Trevor Story was a viable option. Bryant is showing more positional versatility, and could be an outfield anchor this year for the Rockies, but without a lot more sure things in the lineup, I can't say with certainty that he made the right move. I still think he should have listened to his old pal Bryce and taken the 3rd baseman spot in Philly, but that's mostly on regional bias. So I think the Rockies are going to underperform, and Kris Bryant is gonna have to grin and bear it.

2. The Angels will finally make the playoffs this year. I don't know if the Astros will let them win the division, but I think the Angels will be better than they have in years, and will use Trout, Ohtani, Rendon and Adell to actually make something of their talent. Now, with an expanded playoff picture, the Angels could make it in for a few days and then get bounced, but I do think that if their luck turns out alright, they could go on a nice playoff run and finally deliver some results. I am also predicting that Trout will spend the season fully healthy, and that's really one of the only ways they can make a playoff run work.

3. Tony LaRussa is going to step down from managing the White Sox in July. Things have been bubbling under the surface, and between the Yermin incident and several other smaller things, it feels like things are going to come to a head. I genuinely don't think the White Sox can properly compete unless they sever ties with this guy and let an actual new-schooler baseball guy manage the team. 

4. Well, last year I predicted the NL Cy Young winner spot on, so I might as well do that again. Walker Buehler's gonna win the NL Cy Young. His fiercest opposition will come from Brandon Woodruff, Logan Webb, and his own teammate Julio Urias. But Buehler will bring it home. 

5. This year's World Series will come down to the Boston Red Sox and the San Francisco Giants. This will piss off the 'I wanted people who haven't won in 40 years' crowd, but the 'leave the contract-guzzling teams out of this' crowd will love it, it'll go all 7 games and Kapler's Giants will squeak out a win. 

Now, a bit more easier to manage, let's have 5 predictions for April 2022:

1. The Astros will not end this month in 1st, and there will be outcry. 'ARE THE MIGHTY ASTROS DEAD?' 'WHAT'S WRONG WITH JOSE ALTUVE'S SWING'. And then in June or whatever they'll be 5 games over the Mariners and everyone'll be like 'WHY AREN'T THE MARINERS ARE ANGELS CATCHING UP TO THEM?'. I don't expect the Astros to be as good as past teams without a lot of their concrete depth, and without Carlos Correa, but I expect them to be good for a chunk of the season.

2. There will be three unbreakable deadlocks for first in three separate divisions. I'd say the AL East, the NL East and the NL Central. One of them will take another month to fully break up, and I think we all know which one.

3. Seiya Suzuki is going to very quickly become a hero in Chicago. I'm not sure how the team themselves will do, but Suzuki is going to have several multi-hit games, a few power moments, and will be selling tons of jerseys in Illinois in no time.

4. The biggest initial disappointment of the year will be the San Diego Padres. Their lack of offseason work til the very last minute and loss to Tatis will result in a tough couple of series'. Even with C.J. Abrams starting some games, it will look very similar to May 2019, where all the eyes were upon them and nothing was happening. 

5. A major MLB star, other than the ones we're already aware of, will miss substantial time due to an injury. So not deGrom, not Tatis, someone we're not thinking about. And I pray to the baseball gods that it's not a Yankee or Phillie.

So, that's some predictions for the first leg of the season. Let's see how wild the 2022 season ends up becoming after all.

Hall of Fame Veterans' Committee Vote: What are the Odds?

 In an offseason that has been momentarily expunged of actual offseason activity, the eyes of baseball fandom must shift to the BBWAA, a rare baseball organization that can still talk about individual players right now, and their upcoming Veterans Committee vote. Unlike previous ones, where they'll put up maybe 10 contemporary figures that deserve to get in and the boring executive is the one that does [Bud Selig! Yeah! That's the ticket!], this is a Veterans vote from the Golden Days committee, a committee that seems most familiar with Panic! at the Disco bangers, but also with 50s and 60s-era heroes. 

Seeing as I'm not quite sure what the hell's gonna happen with the actual HOF vote, as we may have another year of nobody getting in, or even someone infuriating getting in, I figured I'd weigh the cases of the 10 Golden Days HOF candidates, and present odds of them getting in this year. 

Dick Allen: A few years ago I may not have said yes to this one, but the HOF case has become clearer over time for Dick Allen. First of all, he's a Philadelphia sports legend, and a black trailblazer in a city that has never responded particularly well to black sports heroes. His material in the 60s, and even in the early 70s, is worthy of some of the best hard-hitting seasons in the sport's history. And his sort of traveling era of his career marked the beginnings of the conversation of free agency, as he and Curt Flood represented the sort of stubbornness and player-friendly ideology that would completely alter the game as it went on. I do think that, like Ron Santo, Allen's HOF case has been cemented by his recent passing, but part of me thinks he'd be getting in either way.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 2 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: Even

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

Ken Boyer: So, on one hand...career 62 WAR, an MVP in 1964, 5 seasons with a 6 WAR and over, 11 time All Star thanks to the early 60's biannual ASGs, and legendary status in St. Louis. But what's gonna hold Ken Boyer back is his lack of household name status, and how he sort of falls into Hall of Very Good status, especially by Baseball Reference's statistical terminology. In all four HOF-measuring stats, he comes short. While he was a great player, and a 60s star, I don't know if he's a Hall of Famer, cause I don't know if he means much to the story of baseball. Then again, neither does Harold Baines, so what do I know.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 10 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 8 to 1

Team of Induction: St. Louis Cardinals

Gil Hodges: My usual reaction to reading Gil Hodges' stats is 'he wasn't in already?'. 370 career homers, 7 straight 100+ RBI seasons, 2 rings, 8 ASG appearances, and he got up to 63% on his last HOF ballot. He also won the Mets' first World Series ring as their manager, and is one of the most well-loved hitters in Brooklyn Dodgers history. So far, the Hall of Fame's coverage of the Brooklyn Dodgers, especially the bums teams, is a little slim, with only the highlights, like Jackie Robinson, Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese and Roy Campanella. Hodges should be in, Johnny Podres should be in, maybe even someone else like Carl Erskine or Carl Furillo. But Hodges should be a no-brainer for this one.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 3 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: Even

Team of Induction: Brooklyn Dodgers

Jim Kaat: No. Forget the controversy he got tied up in earlier this year with his Japanese accent. He's just never really statistically wowed me, other than being a solid hitting pitcher. 

Odds of 2022 Induction: 25 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 20 to 1

Team of Induction: Minnesota Twins

Roger Maris: Here I am conflicted. On one hand, you cannot tell the story of baseball without Roger Maris and his 1961 season. On the other hand, Roger Maris' career output comes down to maybe four seasons. 1959 to 1962, where he's healthy, he's hitting, and he's an integral part of these A's and Yankees teams. Other than that he's either not a huge piece of teams, he's injured, or he's aging and ineffective. He played 12 seasons and maybe 5 of them were elite. That's not the kind of ratio that gets people into the Hall of Fame unless there are Negro League stats behind it. Simply put, Roger Maris is famous for one season, and the rest is fairly standard baseball stuff.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 16 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 13 to 1

Team of Induction: New York Yankees

Minnie Miñoso: Other than Hodges, Miñoso may be the surest bet on here. First of all, using Negro Leagues stats actually helps Miñoso, as it gets him over the 2000 hit mark, and cements his prime early years. But also, Miñoso's HOF case has been around for years, and people just haven't been convinced until the full statistical revolution, where we can see how insane his hitting numbers were for years, and we can see just how many wins he was responsible for in Chicago. Miñoso is not only a Cuban trailblazer in the majors, but he was just an insane contact hitter for some great White Sox teams that have never really been respected by the HOF. I think he definitely gets in this year.

Odds of 2022 Induction: Even

Odds of Eventual Induction: Definite

Team of Induction: Chicago White Sox

Danny Murtaugh: The sole manager on here. I think Murtaugh's accomplishments speak for themselves, and I think his stuff in the 60s and 70s Pirates teams are one of the main reasons why they were so good for so long. Only thing is I count maybe 4 guys on this ballot that have more of a case than him, and I think he's gonna be the guy that gets lost in the shuffle. I'm not saying he has no case, he definitely has one, and on a sparser ballot maybe he'd get in. But I don't think it's gonna be this year. As far as 60's managers go, he's high up, but not the highest.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 11 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 7 to 1

Team of Induction: Pittsburgh Pirates

Tony Oliva: My dad thinks that of everybody, Tony Oliva has the best case here. Even Hodges. I don't think he's wrong per se about Oliva having a case: A rookie of the year, an ASG appearance every year from '64 to '71, 5 years leading the league in hits with 2 years over 200, 7 years with a .300+ average with 3 league-leading finishes, and statistical markings that align him with several Hall of Fame contact hitters of his class. Oliva should be in, he and Carew made for some insane contact-hitting energy in the late 60s and early 70s, and even though he had the shorter career, he had some truly insane hitting numbers that really should be commemorated. The only thing is I'm hearing his name less than Hodges's, Miñoso's and Allen's in these conversations, and I'm worried he may get overlooked. I do think he's gonna get a lot of support, but will it be a majority? Perhaps barely.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 4 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: Even

Team of Induction: Minnesota Twins

Billy Pierce: Aside from Boyer, maybe the most obscure name on here. I learned about him through the Baseball Hall of Shame books, in there for being traded for one-dimensional catcher Aaron Robinson, giving the Tigers the soggier end of the deal while the White Sox got 13 seasons of solid mound work, with a 186-152 overall record, a 3.19 ERA and 1796 Ks as a White Sock. Pierce seems like the type of pitcher similar to Bert Blyleven or Jack Morris, who's just a workhorse for 15 years and doesn't get the credit others do because he doesn't have as many big seasons or moments. Pierce was a perfectly strong and consistent pitcher, he just doesn't have the exclamation point. Also, with Miñoso probably getting in this year, do we need another year where the Veterans committee inducts two White Sox? And this time I don't think we even have Tony LaRussa to meddle with things. Pierce was a great player but I don't think he fits into this HOF schematic.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 10 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 9 to 1

Team of Induction: Chicago White Sox

Maury Wills: Like Roger Maris, Maury Wills comes down to a few strong years in the early 60s and not much else. It's very clear how impressive of a base stealer Wills was with the Dodgers, but looking over his batting stats from that period, we've got a lot of negative totals. We're really electing Wills just for his base-stealing, even when other career base-stealers like Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock are in with much better batting numbers. Wills doesn't really have enough dimensions to be a Hall of Famer, at least to me. Great player, had some great seasons with LA and Pittsburgh, but I don't think he's got a shot this year.

Odds of 2022 Induction: 15 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 19 to 1

Team of Induction: Los Angeles Dodgers

I could be wrong on a lot of these, I could have the entire thing backwards. Maybe nobody gets in, and we have another year with 8 or 9 new Negro League inductees [which...isn't a BAD thing, it's just a little anticlimactic for the modern baseball fan]. I didn't write about the Early Days candidates because I don't know enough about them. Maybe the inductees come from there. But...I do have a feeling that 3 or 4 people from this ballot will get in, and I'm thinking it'll be Miñoso, Hodges, Allen and possibly Oliva. Maybe somebody else. I just think there's a lot of missed opportunities in this ballot, and they a lot of them are gonna be mended.

Now, stay tuned for a very confused, frustrated 2022 HOF ballot in January. 

My Unofficial 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot

Tough ballot, this year.

I mean, last few years I've wanted to write posts like these in advance because I've been eager to cover the umpteen nominees added to the ballot, because so many players from my youth are immediately worthy of HOF nomination. In working on this, there was maybe one name that was a lock, and a bunch more than I put on here to use up space.

There are six names on my unofficial ballot this year. I understand you can go up to ten. I don't think I could find 4 other guys that were HOF worthy on here. There are players I adore, like Soriano, Cliff Lee, Konerko and Raul Ibanez, but they're not Hall of Famers. And then there are players with great stats who are either A.) steroid abusers like Bonds and Clemens, or B.) pieces of human garbage like Kent and Schilling. A lot of people on here just don't fit for me, and I say this after Ted Simmons gained entry despite me not really thinking he was worthy.

But, nevertheless, here's my hastily-minimized 2020 Hall of Fame ballot.

Bobby Abreu:
Like last year, diciest call goes first. It surprised me that Abreu had the 2nd-highest career WAR of any newcomer to the ballot. So I looked further and, as it turns out, aside from being a fun little player, Bobby Abreu is a pretty formidable statistical athlete, sort of in the same way that a seemingly one-sided player like Mike Mussina twisted so many stats last year. Over 8.5 seasons in Philadelphia, Abreu averaged a 5.7 WAR. From 1998 to 2009, Abreu topped 150 hits every season. Abreu topped 100 RBIs 8 times without striking out over 150. Abreu also is third on the ballot in stolen bases, behind only Barry Bonds and Omar Vizquel. Bottom line is that despite his career tail-off post-2009, Abreu is the second-most qualified player on the ballot among newbies, and is one of the few people who seem likely to stay on the ballot into next year. Not sure how well he'll do on this year's ballot, but he's definitely a more complex player than people give him credit for.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
Odds of 2020 Induction: 10 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 8 to 1

Derek Jeter
I don't think I have a great deal to explain here, but still, let's go over some basics: 3000 hits, including league-leading numbers in two seasons, one of which he held when he was 38. Career .310 average and .817 OPS. Career 72.4 WAR, which was cool til Trout skipped over it. 5 World Series rings, 14 ASG appearances, a WS MVP, and the love and respect of every Yankee fan. He's in. It's a fact.
Team of Induction: New York Yankees
Odds of 2020 Induction: Even
Odds of Eventual Induction: Certain 

Scott Rolen
Yep, I'm still pushing for Rolen. Was last year, and even though support has grown from another ballot squatter, I still am. Scott Rolen's biggest detraction is that he was never a STAR per se. And yet despite that, he still has a World Series ring, 8 gold gloves, 7 ASG nods, 5 100+ RBI seasons and 316 home runs. And his .855 OPS is bigger than Jeter's, nbd. What made him so important was his infield corner ability, and his defensive ability in general at 3rd, while also being a multi-dimensional player with hitting ability. Rolen was a valuable part of the 2000s Cardinals, and if Pujols and Molina are both locks for the HOF when they retire, Rolen deserves a ton more support because he was always right there with them.
Team of Induction: St. Louis Cardinals
Odds of 2020 Induction: 7 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 4 to 1

Omar Vizquel
I echo an earlier sentiment- there's definitely been some HOF love for the 1990s Indians, as Jim Thome and Eddie Murray are in, so leaving out Vizquel because he was never the most apt offensive ballplayer is an insult to Luis Aparicio. Vizquel was impressive because of how quick he could be, how impressive his fielding could be even well into his forties, and how even as he would be upstaged on the marquee by Griffey, Thome, Ramirez, Hafner, Bonds and the like, he would still probably be the most talented ballplayer on the field. Vizquel still came within 200 of 3000 hits, and stole 4 more bases than Bobby Abreu, so even if he's still gonna get boosted this year because of his defense, and his 11 gold gloves, he's still a bit more well-rounded than most people think. He's probably not in this year, but he deserves eventual recognition.
Team of Induction: Cleveland Indians
Odds of 2020 Induction: 5 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 3 to 1

Billy Wagner
Another long shot, but I've come around on this guy. Maybe because Mo and Hoffman have come and gone from this ballot, but I feel like the 'WE'RE GONNA BREAK ALL THE RECORDS AND LAST FOREVER' reliever has spoiled the regular old 'I'm gonna be good in the ninth for 15 years' reliever that's gotten in no trouble for the last 30 years. Rich Gossage and Bruce Sutter took some time, but they found the traction eventually because of pure, unadulterated dominance. And that's what Billy Wagner had, which I can say with confidence after seeing him pitch the ninth a few times in Philadelphia. Wagner had that sort of lights-out scariness that not a lot of modern relievers (save for maybe Craig Kimbrel) seem to have anymore. Maybe after Lee Smith got in we remembered how easy it was for big strong guys to just intimidate batters in the ninth, but only for that moment. Wagner got 422 saves in 16 seasons, ended with a 2.31 career ERA, and managed to, like Mike Mussina, absolutely come to life in his final season, with a 1.43 ERA, 37-save year with Atlanta. We may have to wait a while to vote in another legendary reliever (K-Rod will turn some heads in a few years), so for now...I hope Billy Wagner finds a crowd.
Team of Induction: Houston Astros
Odds of 2020 Induction: 12 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 6 to 1

Larry Walker
Last year, I predicted that with the departure of Edgar Martinez from the ballot, that Mike Mussina would take his place as the fringe favorite of stat-twisty voters. Of course, Moose got in too. That leaves Larry Walker, a different kind of Canadian staple, whose insane batting numbers have sat on this ballot for 10 years, and are only now beginning to delight voters. My dad has the opinion that Walker belongs in the 'Hall of very good', but...he also thought this about Ted Simmons and Harold Baines, and Walker was better than both of them. Walker has an MVP with Colorado, and led them to several big years in the 90s, hitting 258 homers in Coors Field- regardless of the air quality, you have to admit that some human ability had to go into that. He also has a career .313 average, a career .965 OPS, topped 100 RBIs 5 times, and never let his batting WAR figure drop below 0 after his 1989 rookie year. Walker deserves to be in there alongside Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell and Ken Griffey, and he also deserves to be the first-ever Colorado Rockie in the HOF.
Team of Induction: Colorado Rockies
Odds of 2020 Induction: 2 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: Even

So, that's my ballot. Not much, but it's something. Let's see how right I am.

Predicting the Playoffs: 2019

I was kind of hoping for a slightly-less clean playoff fight in the last few days. Yes, it was heartbreaking to see the Cubs and Indians cut, but...I was expecting the Brewers-Cardinals race to lead to a playoff game or something. Thanks to a random Colorado victory, the Brewers wound up Wild Card favorites, and this is what we're dealing with.

So...now I have to predict how these matchups are going to go. This doesn't usually go well for me. Last year, I thought the Brewers would make the World Series. I've had ballsier picks. This year...I'm gonna try to keep the spontaneity factor in mind for my picks, which...might throw me off even more.

AL Wild Card: Athletics vs. Rays

 The two cheapest feel-good teams in the bunch. I do like the Rays here, and I think their breakneck, skeleton crew formation has been really fun in going from a novelty to a winner. The only problem is they're going against this A's team, who would be in 1st if not for the unstoppable Astros. The A's are coming at them with Sean Manaea back in peak form, the Chapman-Olson-Semien combo better than it's ever been, and Liam Hendriks raising hell in the ninth. This may be a close game, but I see the A's advancing, finally.
Verdict: A's over Rays

NL Wild Card: Brewers vs. Nationals

 Fun fact: The Brewers have more playoff series victories in this decade than the Nationals. The Brewers have made it to an NLCS twice- first in 2011 against the Cardinals, then again in 2018 against the Dodgers. The Nats have yet to win a playoff series, hilariously so. However, given the opportunity to play one game against a Brewers team that's weaker, less-realized, and, most importantly, has 98% less Christian Yelich than last year's team, I think they'll squeak one out. The Nats will also be starting Max Scherzer who has a leg up over literally any pitcher the Brewers choose to start.
Verdict: Nats over Brewers.

ALDS Part 1: Twins vs. Yankees

 Battle of the home run hitters, this series. Despite the impressive pitchers that both teams will bring out (Odo and La Makina in one corner, Sevvy and Paxton in the other), and despite the insanely fun bullpens in both cases (I am excited to see Sergio Romo, Taylor Rogers, Adam Ottavino and Zach Britton take this one on)...it's gonna be about the home runs. And there will be several. I'm not exactly sure how the rosters will go, but even dark horses like Jake Cave and Mike Ford could hit some out. I predict this will go all five games, and be bloodthirsty...but the Minnesota Twins will be victorious. I honestly think they're more powerful than New York, and have better pitching. But it'll be close.
Verdict: Twins over Yankees.

ALDS Part 2: A's vs. Astros

 The thing about this being a division rivalry is that it's kind of easy to predict. Not just because it's a wild card team going up against the virtually unstoppable Astros, but because the Astros have won their season's matchups against Oakland 11 to 7. Which is honestly closer than I'd have expected. In fact, the A's have won the last series against the Astros, meaning they've definitely heated up as the season's gone on, and this could be a very tight race. But...this is still the Astros we're talking about, and I do think they'll trounce Oakland easily.
Verdict: Astros over A's.

NLDS Part 1: Cardinals vs. Braves

 I'm going to try to keep my anti-Cardinals bias out of this, but...this shouldn't be close. The Cards have been a good, but not great, borderline playoff team that only made it to first in the last month and a half of the season. Yes, they do have weapons like Paul deJong and Jack Flaherty at their disposal, but...look at the Braves. Look at how awesome the Braves have been. They dominated the NL East while still making the other teams feel like they had a chance, they let powerful seasons by Josh Donaldson, Mike Soroka, Ronald Acuna Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman go side-by-side without overwhelming anyone, and they're not...done...yet. I'm expecting a short series from these two.
Verdict: Braves over Cards.

NLDS Part 2: Nationals vs. Dodgers

 I'm trying to allow for spontaneity, even though these have been predictable outcomes so far. And I want to say that the Nats could finally win a playoff match here...but look at who they're playing. The Dodgers have only shown sparks of humanity this whole season, while the Nats have been a very tangible, human wild card team. The Nats have made a team work with Asdrubal Cabrera, Gerardo Parra and Erick Fedde clutching crucial positions, and with Fernando Rodney well-employed. And the Dodgers...are just on a completely different level. Bellinger, Turner, Seager and Muncy will be going wild in this series. I still think they'll go 4 games, but...I am expecting some LA blowouts.
Verdict: Dodgers over Nats

ALCS: Twins vs. Astros

 Okay, here's some spontaneity- I'm calling an upset. I think the Astros are gonna peak in the ALDS, and by the time they have to play the Twins, Verlander and Cole are gonna give up too many home runs, the lineups gonna roll gutter balls, and the legend of this Twins team, and of Rocco Baldelli, is gonna grow. I don't know what's fueling this. I don't know how accurate it is. I'm just looking at those home run totals, and at that pitching staff, and going...can the Astros even take that? I don't know if they can, even with a Cy Young winner on their staff.
Verdict: Twins over Astros.

NLCS: Braves vs. Dodgers

 Here...I'm not calling for an upset. Because even if this series goes all 7, I don't think the Braves can stop LA. This is the unstoppable factor the Dodgers have this year that Houston doesn't. I can see Houston losing a big game by double-digits to a team out of the question, or even the A's. This did not happen often to the Dodgers. They only had a few bad stretches, and thankfully a lot of them were early. I also think the Dodgers' pitching staff is more experienced, and more trained for October than the Braves, who are still dealing with trial and error after trading out most of their 2018 rotation for newer arms. It could be close, but...the Dodgers should have this one.
Verdict: Dodgers over Braves

World Series: Twins vs. Dodgers

 I find it funny that both these guys are in 60s designs, because this feels like a very mid-60s World Series. And while it may not be as explosive as the 2016 Series, or even the 2013 series, I'm predicting this one should be fun, and might go to 6 games. Overall, however...it's going to come down to whether the Twins can stop Cody Bellinger. And I don't think they can. I'm not saying he'll be the x-factor in this series, as that might be somebody unassuming like Gavin Lux or Joc Pederson, but...I don't think the Twins pitching, as good as it's been, can stop somebody huge like Bellinger. And while I may be wrong on MANY of these picks...I do think this'll be the year the Dodgers finally pull together a World Series.
Verdict: Dodgers over Twins.

So yeah. Let's see how wrong I am.

Countdown to an Inevitable Astros-Dodgers World Series Rematch

I know it's a bit early, but...well look.

Do we...need to do the rest of this season?

Actually, screw it. If the season ended today.
Rays win AL Wild card. Cubs win NL wild card.
ALCS: Astros-Yankees.
NLCS: Dodgers-Brewers.
World Series: Astros-Dodgers.

You see? It's that inevitable. It's that obvious. And it could definitely happen.

Now I know what you're thinking. And you're thinking that it's literally impossible for any two frontrunners in OCTOBER, let alone in June, to make it all the way to the World Series without hitting any obstacles. It's physically impossible, because you have to just zoom through endless probabilities and outcomes.

I just ask myself...can any team catch the Dodgers? No. And can any team catch the Astros? Maybe the Twins, but I don't know if they're a World Series team.

So...unless insane things happen soon, we may be looking at a Dodgers-Astros WS rematch. And I kinda like that, because that means the Dodgers might be able to win it.

I mean, think about this. Unlike last year, their entire rotation is very healthy. Ryu, Kershaw and Hill are all themselves. Nobody has an ERA over 4. Hell, Hyun-Jin Ryu is so good that he's only given up 13 runs. For comparison's sake, Lance Lynn, who has started the same amount of games for Texas, has given up 39 runs.

You've also got a lineup where six members [Bellinger, Muncy, Verdugo, Seager, Turner, Pederson] have 1.0 and up WARs. You've also got TWO GREAT BACKUP CATCHERS, David Freese being the best bench player out there, and at the very least some home runs from Enrique Hernandez. This is a fantastic team, and this is after AJ Pollock's injury.

The Dodgers are better than they were in either of the years they lost the World Series. I just can't wait to see how they'll do in a third one.

Coming Tomorrow- His team is slowly gaining some injured players back. Which is nice. But...it's gotta help that he's been playing hella well since April, right?

Predicting the Playoffs: 2018

Well, now that we have our matchups and seeds, I can finally write this post.

I can definitely say that these matchups to end regulation were a fun way to lead into the playoffs, with Lorenzo Cain's RBI and Cody Bellinger's home run clinching things for those teams, and giving the teams that were about to settle for Wild Card spots their respective divisions. So...now the matchups that I THOUGHT were about to happen have been completely flipped. Now the Dodgers HAVE clinched their umpteenth NL West, and the Brewers have delegated the 2-time NL Central champs to Wild Card status.

But...that doesn't make my inability to predict things correctly any less valid. As usual, pre-playoffs, I'm going to run down each playoff matchup, and give my opinion as to how it will go, and my odds. All the way down to the World Series. I don't expect to be right. If I'm right, then baseball's too predictable, and we can't have that.

AL Wild Card: Athletics vs. Yankees

Moneyball III vs. Aaron Boone Part I. I see this being one heck of a game. Either this is going to be a complete blowout on both sides, with only a battle of the long ball separating the two, or it'll be a slow burn pitching battle, possibly between two tough arms, neither of which have been formally announced yet. Still, this is a matchup between two teams with generally equal momentum, both of which could do well in the playoffs. But...I am giving the edge to New York, solely because I think they can outhit the A's, and because I think this team can get the better of their pitching staff. It may be close, and it may come down to extras, but I see a Yankee victory for a second straight AL Wild Card game.
Verdict: Yanks over A's.

NL Wild Card: Rockies vs. Cubs

Battle of the teams who were in first the other day. I'm gonna be controversial with this pick. Looking at this one from afar, it's obvious: the Chicago Cubs have the better team, they have the more skilled, varied roster, and they've been preparing for this run for half the year. But in the last week, they've dropped some crucial games, especially down the stretch. Yes, they won enough to oust the Cardinals from competition (thank you, by the way), but they dropped some games to the Pirates in their last series. So, they're going into a Wild Card game they didn't think they'd be in...vulnerable. Against a team that built up a ton of momentum towards the end. The game's in Chicago rather than Denver, so it should level the playing field, but the Rockies have Kyle Freeland going up against Jon Lester, which gives them the edge, even the Cubs do bring their a-game offensively. I'm going to have to give this one to the Rox, as disappointing as this must be for Cubs fans expecting a virtual 4-peat in the NLCS.
Verdict: Rox over Cubs.

ALDS Part 1: Indians vs. Astros

2016 AL Champs vs. 2017 AL Champs. This one I see going all five games. I see blowouts, but I don't see this series being a sweep for either team, solely because they're in similar places. These are two routinely-great teams facing against inevitability. The Indians are still smarting from their 1st-round ouster last year, but the Astros are the defending champs, and they look just as strong. What worries me is that the Tribe played in the least competitive division in the leagues, and have the lowest record of the playoff teams. They also have a few more problem areas than Houston, as there are a few fill-in players that are starting due to lack of options. They're, once again, the more vulnerable team. And seeing as I think Houston might go on another playoff tear, this all but spells doom for the Indians.
Verdict: Stros over Tribe in 5.

ALDS Part 2: Yankees vs. Red Sox

The Age-Old Rivalry, Yet Again. Look...with these predictions, I try not to look at these at face value, and I try and actually think about what these will be like in real life. So...let's be honest with ourselves. The Sox just dropped two out of three to the Yankees. They've also lost some matches in the last few weeks to Cleveland, Houston, and...Baltimore. So the Sox are slowing down, hence those Yankee losses. Meanwhile, the Yankees are only heating up. And even if the Sox keep people like Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright and Brian Johnson out of the picture, the Yankees may sink this 'best team of the year'. This is, after all, a battle between two 100-win teams, and teams with major home run hitters. The Yankees have enough to go toe-to-toe with Boston...and they might get the last laugh.
Verdict: Yankees over Sox in 4. They get that 3rd win at the stadium.

NLDS Part 1: Braves vs. Dodgers

1990s Perennial Division Champs vs. 2010s Perennial Division Champs. Another tricky one. The Dodgers do have the momentum, but the Braves aren't too shabby either, and might be the craftier team. The Dodgers may have bigger guns at their disposal, but the Braves have a loaded bench and bullpen, and can play the long game better than arguably anyone in this postseason. This one will probably go all five, and come down to whose pitching can outlast the other's...and the Dodgers may pull this one out at the last second. I expect this to come down to an eighth-or-ninth inning homer off of Pederson or Puig.
Verdict: Dodgers over Braves in 5.

NLDS Part 2: Rockies vs. Brewers

The 'Wasn't This Supposed to be the NL Wild Card game' matchup. And, suddenly, the Brewers are the top-seeded team in the game, and the Rockies are the underdogs. I love the fact I can say that. This one also might go all five games, and exhaust the home-run-hitting abilities of both squads, even with the recent additions of both Matt Holliday and Curtis Grandson respectively. However...it may just come down to the better team winning, and here that might just be the Brewers. In this matchup, the Rockies could very well squeeze through, but there's more probability for the Brewers to take it, especially on the wings of the Yelich-Cain combo.
Verdict: Brewers over Rockies in 5.

ALCS: Astros vs. Yankees

 The 2017 ALCS Rematch. And this year may have a ton more stakes, as the Yankees are trying to break into the mainstream, and the Astros are trying to hold onto a dynasty. That said...like last year, this one might not be especially close. The Yankees will definitely win at least one, but I see the Astros running away with this one easily. I just think they're the better team, and that they deserve to be back in the World Series. Even if the Yanks have one or two major power moments, I don't see them advancing to a World Series this year, sadly. Not ruling it out for this century, though.
Verdict: Astros over Yankees in 5.

NLCS: Dodgers vs. Brewers

 Perennial Winners vs. Ultimate Underdogs. Both of these teams have a reason to win, and it could very well be a rematch of the 2017 series...HOWEVER...I think the Brewers have an edge here that the Dodgers don't have. I think they've got a bit more versatility, and can retain momentum, to the point where they make this one look relatively easy as well, sad to say for any Dodgers fans. And that's kind of reassuring, as this Brewers team has been unlucky as of late, and it'd be fantastic if they truly went the distance, especially against a monolithic team like the Dodgers.
Verdict: Brewers over Dodgers in 6.

World Series: Brewers vs. Astros

 Battle of the League Jumpers. I think this one will go all seven. Both teams will want this badly. The Brewers have never won a World Series, and are still smarting from letting the Cardinals stomp over them in 1982. The Astros have only won 1, and are trying their best to hold onto their dynasty. Both have a ton to prove, and this will be one nail-biter after another, with several career-making moments from both sides. I imagine names like Alex Bregman, Eric Thames, Gerrit Cole and Gio Gonzalez will go down in WS history. And after all 7 games...I predict Evan Gattis will end in a walk off. And the Astros will have earned the hell out of this one.

Even if it's not as dramatic as that, I firmly believe that the Astros will repeat as World Champions. Over Milwaukee. It may be bold, but bold statements like that get you ahead in life.

Opening Day 2018: Let's Get This Over With

So here's what everybody thinks is going to happen in 2018:

• Everyone thinks the New York Yankees are going to be this unstoppable, monolithic force that's gonna come back and go for a title, and while that's an awfully nice thought, especially considering the force of two major home run hitters on the lineup, we're not exactly certain that this is gonna work quite yet. We don't know if Judge is a one-year thing, we don't know if Stanton can have another year like 2017, and we don't know if this formula is one that works, but everyone seems to think it will. So...sure, it might.
• Everyone thinks that the Astros and Dodgers are going to make serious runs at the World Series again, possibly being successful for the latter, but we all know how hard it is for a team to get back to the World Series a year after being in it (just ask the Indians). Both teams could be great, but it's too early to say if either one will be THE GREATEST.
• Everyone thinks that Ronald Acuna, Scott Kingery, Gleyber Torres, Ryan McMahon and Shohei Ohtani are gonna be incredible from the getgo, but it may not be that simple, and it may take a while for all of these rookie prospects to prosper in the bigs. Hell, Ohtani may end up being a failed experiment from LA. We don't know. My eyes are on Kingery and McMahon to make the most of their roster spots right now.
• Everyone thinks that Yu Darvish in Chicago is gonna be electric. The guy's had off seasons. You've seen them. This may be one of them. But don't have a stroke if it is. Remember, it only took a year for Zack Greinke to bounce back.
• Everyone thinks that Topps cards kinda suck this year. They do. Next
• Everyone thinks that the aborted free agent class of this year is going to lead to insanely mad trade deadline and 2018 offseason. It might just lead to a ton of people getting traded late August, and Topps having heart attacks to try and get them all in the 2019 set. It may be another misladen free agent year like this one. Maybe free agency's going downhill for good. 

And that's what everyone thinks is gonna happen in 2018. Let's see if any of these are right.

Coming Tomorrow: Probably a custom? They need to come out with some baseball photos, and I have a feeling there might be a few of those from today. 

Predicting the Playoffs: 2016

Today is a very sad day, because it's the first time since July that absolutely no baseball activities are going on. So, it's just too quiet around here. This being said, I figured I'd do something really stupid and try predicting the playoff outcomes.

Yeah, the norm around here is for me to make out-of-line predictions, and as the playoffs start tomorrow, with the AL Wild Card game, I figured I'd make some seriously sack assumptions about how everything's going to go, from the Wild Cards all the way to the World Series. Will I be wrong? YES! OF COURSE I'LL BE WRONG! That's the whole point!

AL Wild Card: Blue Jays vs. Orioles

Battle of the AL East Underachievers. the Blue Jays have indeed tracked some serious momentum in the last 3 months, but the Orioles have taken a dire situation and turned it into some serious results, setting September on fire and hitting like a storm.
This will probably be a tough matchup, but I predict the O's will crack it wide open LATE in the game, and move on.
Verdict: O's over Jays.

NL Wild Card: Mets vs. Giants

Inevitability vs. Continuity. The Mets have taken a lot of setbacks and made a workable, ragtag team out of it all, and I do respect that. The problem is that the Giants are a little more well-built than them, and this is also an even year. As good as the Mets are, they won't make it out alive here.
Verdict: Giants over Mets.

ALDS Pt. 1: Red Sox vs. Indians

2007 Revisited. Weird part is the Sox are the only one of the two to still have a member that was present in 2007, David Ortiz. Coco Crisp was present, but he's on the opposite end of the offensive.
I actually really enjoy both of these teams, and while I'd love for my fantasies to take hold and for the Indians to win...I don't think they have enough to overpower the Red Sox, who have become an absolute offensive monster in the last few months, and are a definite favorite going into the postseason. Plus, the injuries in Cleveland haven't been the kindest.
Verdict: Red Sox over Indians in 4.

ALDS Pt. 2: Rangers vs. Orioles

The Best of the 90's. This one could actually be pretty tough, as despite the power in Texas, this is pretty evenly matched, and could go for the full five. However, there's no denying how fantastic the Rangers have been, and even if the Orioles can hold them down for 5, the obvious outcome is still the one I'm going with.
Verdict: Rangers over Orioles in 5.

NLDS Pt. 1: Dodgers vs. Nationals

Battle of the Neglected 2010's Contenders. This one could be pretty damn tough, because both of these teams have similar strengths and weaknesses, and both of them are really at the exact same place right now. Like the Rangers one, this will go all 5 games most likely. However, in my opinion, the Dodgers are going to come out on top. I think they have a bit more going for them this year, their star players are playing well, and also I'm allowed to make out-of-control predictions here.
Verdict: Dodgers over Nats in 5.

NLDS Pt. 2: Cubs vs. Giants

Even Year vs. Wait Til This Year. Look, I'll make this quick. As good as the Giants are, they're flawed. They lost some games. They're not even in the condition they were in back in 2014, and that year they were a mixed bag that made it happen by sneaking in. They don't have the materials to do what they did in 2014. So...they Cubs are going to take it in 3.
Verdict: Cubs over Giants in 3.

ALCS: Red Sox vs. Rangers

Battle of the Only AL Champs this Decade That Aren't from the AL Central. This one could be very tough, but I don't think it'll go all 7. I'm giving this one to the Sox because I see them right now at World Series level. The Rangers may have to work towards that level. I really don't know what condition they'll be in come the ALCS, but...this looks like it's the Red Sox' to lose.
Verdict: Sox over Rangers in 5.

NLCS: Cubs vs. Dodgers

NLDS 2015, Take 2. Look, I'm going to try to judge this fairly, seeing as I may have been romanticizing the Cubs this year due to my appreciation for them. But...even when I weigh this without a bias, the Cubs still win. The Dodgers are going to fight until they can't any longer, but the Cubs have the depth, talent and drive to get past even the Dodgers. And I'm trying not to have a bias here, I swear.
Verdict: Cubs over Dodgers in 6.

WORLD SERIES: CUBS VS. RED SOX.

If this all goes according to plan, this will be a battle between the team that waited since 1918 for a title, and a team that's been waiting since 1908 for a title. This will be something momentous in baseball history, the two goats squaring off for a title, even if the Sox have won 3 since 2004.
And oh...what a World Series this will be.
I predict it going all 7, having heroes, close calls, pitching spectacles, clutch home runs, a David Ortiz performance that no one will ever forget, and Kris Bryant etching himself deeper into the history books.
But...who do I think is going to win? This is tough. I want it to be the Cubs, because of history, and because of the season they've had. But narrative-wise...it'd have to be the Red Sox. This season's been tumultuous, and they've fought to be on top, as opposed to the Cubs, who'd been on top since the very beginning of the season.


So...this will be a very close series, but...in the end, I predict the Red Sox to win the World Series over the Chicago Cubs.
...and somewhere Rod Serling is smiling at me for saying that.