Brush It Off, Kid

 

It takes a certain kind of person to get a ball thrown at upwards of 90 mph to the face, then get back up the next day and go right back into the line of fire. You have to be tough, resilient, determined and, ultimately, you have to have a sense of humor about yourself. Jonathan India was on the 2020 Reds, so we certainly can tell he can have a laugh at himself, but he's also extremely tough. So him going 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs against the Brewers a day after getting decked by an Emmanuel Clase pitch shouldn't shock you. This might be only the beginning. 

I initially questioned the Royals' motive in trading for Jonathan India, especially giving up Brady Singer for him. The Royals had a perfectly fine infield, Massey and Witt at the center, Garcia and Pasquantino at the corners. Complicating things with India seemed excessive. But India can also play left field, which he's been doing more and more this season, and to be honest defensively it may be the better place for him. I stand firm in my belief that they shouldn't have given up Singer, and seeing how well he did yesterday I think that goes without saying. But considering that the Royals still had several OF spots up in the air, and filled by passable defenders like M.J. Melendez and Hunter Renfroe, getting a surefire guy like India definitely works, and his offensive production has only vindicated this decision. 

So that already defines the Royals. One of their best hitters right now is a guy who literally refuses to back down, even from injury. They're 2-2, losing two against a tough division rival but absolutely crushing the Brewers, themselves still reeling from being embarrassed by the Yankees. This is a team where Pasquantino, Perez, Witt and even Michael Massey can be responsible for crucial RBIs. Yes, Pasquantino is DHing predominantly at the moment after the injury, and the starts at 1st have been going to Mark Canha and Cavan Biggio, but this is why you have depth guys like that. 

But again...so far the starting pitching is the worrying detail. Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, two of their horses from last year, gave up 3 runs each, Michael Wacha allowed less runs but still got the loss, and Kris Bubic, the guy who came back from an injury and conserved his innings as a bullpen piece last year, looked incredible, and seems to be the only starter doing so thus far. Which goes to show you, if you want to be a great starter, try to avoid doing really well for 33 games the previous year. It'll even out, especially with starters this talented, but it, again, points towards the idea that maybe trading Singer was a bad call. At least the 'pen looks better.

The Royals have a lot of pros so far, but against some truly great teams they've been mostly passable. I have a feeling this team will eventually break even, and considering the presence of peak Bobby Witt it's really a matter of when, but without Jonathan 'unsinkable' India I don't know if they'd have as many highlights. 

Coming Tonight: Probably a member of the [sigh] first place St. Louis Cardinals. 

Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Slightly Smaller Frying Pan

 

Thinking about this trade the Royals and Reds made, which brings Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to Kansas City in exchange for Brady Singer, I...think it makes sense, but I think that one side thought it through more than the others.

Okay, let's talk about where this trade works. And there is some of it that works on the Kansas City end. Jonathan India is the exact kind of middle infield piece that the Royals needed. Pasquantino and Witt are firmly in place, and Massey and Garcia are...fine. Massey had a decent rebound season, Garcia's was a step down from his 2023. One of those two could be a swing piece, India could fit right into 2nd, and that infield could really be something. I also like India's odds in that lineup; he doesn't need to be THE defining piece, but he's a great piece that can get some contact work done. 

That also works to clear up the now-crowded Cincinnati infield, which will have the return of Matt McLain at 2nd, CES back at 1st and Candelario and Marte at third, in addition to Elly remaining at short. Keeping India in that scenario complicates things too much, and he's got more room in Kansas City I think.

And then you can also say that the Reds had too many outfielders, and the Royals' OF isn't set in stone yet, so Wiemer's better off for KC than Cincinnati. So that works too.

...but it's the Brady Singer part that confuses me a bit.

Okay. So Brady Singer was really good in 2022, right? And he was primed to be one of the premier young starters in the game. Then 2023 he has a down year, and everyone sort of...backs off that. Cole Ragans shows up, the Royals get Lugo and Wacha, the pressure's off. And so in 2024, Singer has a decent enough season, 9-13 with a 3.71 ERA and 170 strikeouts, but he's no longer the most crucial arm in that rotation. So, going into 2025, the Royals have Lugo, Ragans, Wacha, Alec Marsh, and some combination of Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright, assuming neither get cut soon. We're looking at a rotation that no longer has room for Brady Singer.

So let's look at where he's going, the Reds' rotation, who will be using all of the following as starting options in 2025: Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft and Julian Aguiar. Now, obviously you have to factor in injuries, people starting in the minors, but that's eight guys. And I know they're overestimating this because for the second year in a row the Reds got caught with their pants down again because too many starters got injured. So they're trying to employ a strategy that prevents this. But now this ninth guy enters the equation, and he does so as a major league option, so that means Rhett Lowder likely will have to fight harder for a rotation spot, Nick Martinez will likely be starting the season out of the 'pen, and if multiple people who were injured this year are ready at spring training, it's gonna lead to some awkward decisions.

So yes, the Royals no longer had room for Brady Singer. But the Reds have even LESS room, even as a team creating back molars and wisdom teeth for the rotation essentially. So unless the Reds are interested in swinging Singer for another trade, they're gonna be holding the bag like this. Maybe they have a plan with all of this, but it just seems excessive and misguided.

Who knows, maybe Singer works more than India, but I'm not sold with KC's decision to give Singer a harder time yet. Maybe I'll warm up to it.

The 'So Close' Response

 
Two of the most inexplicably exciting stories heading into the 2023 postseason concerned the Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins had just lost their marquee players and were starting over with a mixture of homegrown guys and contracts, including recently-traded-for Josh Bell and Jake Burger. The Reds were once the butt of the league and were slowly coming back, thanks to their incredible youth movement and players like Elly de la Cruz, Andrew Abbott and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Both seemed like fun playoff spoilers in a field of potential juggernauts. In all actuality, the Reds petered off before the end of September and the Marlins were faced with a three game series against the unstoppable Phillies home crowd. 

So going into 2024, with the scales sort of refreshed and both clubs wiser, we get the rebuttal. 

The Marlins technically have the most to draw from, as they actually did make the playoffs, and finished with the same record as the eventual NL Champion Diamondbacks. They also suffered the most immediate loss, with not only key players like Jorge Soler, Dylan Floro, Joey Wendle and Garrett Hampson leaving in transactions, but Sandy Alcantara, the staff ace, looking to skip the season entirely. 

As a result, the Marlins' rotation is a bit shakier than it has any reason to be. The team seems to be set with Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and the newly-promoted A.J. Puk at the head of the rotation, but with Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez struggling with injuries, the back half seems murky at best. The idea is to go with organizational options like Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer, but those two especially have struggled at the MLB level recently. You also have to remember that Sixto Sanchez is actually healthy this year, and has been ramping up to return to the majors again, but the plan with him right now seems to use him as a bullpen piece, which...fine, be anticlimactic. The bottom line is that the Marlins' rotation is concerningly uneven, and with the team lacking the sufficient funds to go out and grab somebody like, at the very least, Michael Lorenzen, this is gonna be what they go with for a bit.

The good news is that the lineup itself could be enough to not completely bottom out in April. Josh Bell, Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez are looking at great years. Nick Gordon, Dane Myers and Jon Berti have looked hot out of camp. And the new additions like Tim Anderson, Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Brujan do point towards some intriguing developments this year. I'm not wholly convinced on them til something entirely clicks with this version of the team, but they could definitely do some damage.

On the other hand, the Reds seem to have solved their biggest problem from 2023: pitching. Last year their pitching options were so unreliable that they were dipping into the back shelves of their starting development. Everybody got hurt, the people they brought up to replace them got hurt, and that factor doomed them towards the stretch. So it's the opposite of the Marlins: they're going from injury disasters to durability. Which is a nice look for them.

The Reds' potential rotation seems to be Greene-Lodolo-Ashcraft-Montas-Abbott. There's still other names floating around the outsides, like Brandon Williamson and Nick Martinez, but those five seem to be the answers this year. And if all of them stay healthy? Damn. 

Granted, it seems to be a lot to ask for a lot of these guys, especially Montas, who appeared in New York so sparingly since the 2022 trade from Oakland that I don't think I ever really got used to him in pinstripes. If Montas somehow strings together a great campaign for the Reds...well good for him. Ashcraft is coming off an injury-plagued campaign, but he seems to have his stuff again; same with Lodolo, who's ramping back up. Greene and Abbott hopefully will provide some stability this year, and I really don't want to see them hit the IL with how hard they're throwing.

The best thing you can say about the Reds this year is that they've overprepared. They have multiple valid answers at most positions, and have a flexible lineup where they can succeed in multiple different ways. The key example concerns Matt McLain, who's not definite for Opening Day. If he's out for a bit, the Reds have Jonathan India and Elly de la Cruz at both his positions. You're still great there. It honestly surprised me, by the way, that the Reds re-signed India, as it seemed like the young infield was evolving without the need for him, but they've used India and Jeimer Candelario as ways to buttress the infield while filling things in over time with the kids. They're also phasing Spencer Steer into an outfield role if CES wants to play 1st, which could be the way. 

The other issue is T.J. Friedl, who could be out for a bit with a recently-surfaced injury. Alright, then the outfield's Will Benson-Jake Fraley-Steer. That's still pretty good. Maybe a little lacking in versatility but still very good. There are enough backups that are still A options that the Reds don't entirely worry me this year. They've prepared for so many outcomes, and have enough young guys to still look intimidating for a while after this year. Heck, even Noelvi Marte getting busted for PEDs didn't worry me, as that...takes out a 3rd base option, and he'd have been, like, 3rd in line anyhow.

The Reds are looking to make the leap, like the Orioles did last year, and I think they will in 2024. Hopefully they have better luck, and a stronger second half, this time around.

Reds Extension Update: Extend More Of Them Edition

 

One of the biggest stories of the last few days was the Cincinnati Reds signing Hunter Greene, in the midst of his second season in the bigs, to a 6-year extension, on track to have him help round out the decade with the Reds. For Reds fans, it is a sigh of relief, as the team that has never been prone to keeping its big stars on the team is finally beginning to learn and keep things in line. 

My response, even if this is a low-earning team that hasn't built all the way up to compete quite yet, is two very simple words: Lodolo next.

The Reds have a lot so far that's working, aside from the three-headed dragon of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft, which people figured would end up working anyhow this year even if the team didn't. Jonathan India, somehow one of the longer-tenured Reds they have there, has been off to a nice start, hitting .300 with 18 hits and 3 steals. T.J. Friedl is already winning over fans, hitting .305 with 9 RBIs, and Spencer Steer has been living up to expectations as well, hitting .320 with 2 homers already. You also have steady power hitters like Wil Myers and Jake Fraley who, while not perfect, are at least helping out at the plate. Myers especially was helpful in terrorizing the Phillies last week. Still not 100% forgiving him there.

The team isn't perfect. There's like four or five spots where people don't know what they're doing. Controversially, I might go so far as to say that, even before he gets back, I kinda think Joey Votto leaving might be a good thing for them, as they'll be able to bring somebody up that's young and move on from the 2010s teams. Votto has a year left in Cincy, and he might play the 'I'm not done yet' game like many legends do, but unless they're really thinking about letting him DH, they need new blood at 1st, and Jason Vosler clearly isn't gonna cut it. Neither is Jose Barrero at short, and I hope it doesn't take another year for them to come to that conclusion.

I also think that, while that triptych is excellent for the rotation, they really need to keep those last two filled. Overton might be an answer if he stays healthy, and Levi Stoudt might have more to him than just getting lit up by the Rays, but if we're just relying on people like Luis Cessa and Reiver Sanmartin, who really aren't great starting options, for the time being then you're kinda asking for it. I get it, Overton and Gutierrez are injured. Stoudt was a good idea, maybe see what happens against a team that isn't the Rays. Luke Weaver seems to be their next option, and while that has worked in the past...I really hope Weaver's stuff is better than it's been the last few years, because there's a reason why the D-Backs' rotation was always too full for him. And similarly, there's a reason why he didn't make the team out of camp.

As far as bad teams go, the Reds have a lot to them, and they only just fell to last after the Rays drubbing, as the Cardinals' slow first few weeks gave them a head start essentially. I expect them to improve somewhat, though with the Pirates actually looking pretty decent lately, and the Cubs' offense being as power-crazy as it is...maybe not enough to completely stay out of last.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets are getting some results from a recent call-up right now, but I wonder if they ever look over to Seattle and wonder what would have happened if they didn't trade for Cano.

Passage to India

 

I think the Reds this year have been 'the team where everybody gets injured at once' for the NL. And the AL version of that is the Rays, but they're still making the playoffs. So if the Reds aren't competing and most of the team is injured, that's, uh...even worse.

You know, I think the most unfortunate injury-prone team to come across, and there's one every year or so, is the kind of injury prone team where somebody gets hurt the second they start playing well. And that's obviously how you'd best describe the Reds rotation. Because at certain points, all of Nick Lodolo, Connor Overton, Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Justin Dunn and Vladimir Gutierrez have all figured something out or had a nice start, and then immediately landed on the IL. Greene, Lodolo and Overton are all back now, but they were gone for large chunks of the season, and it left the Reds in the hands of people like Mike Minor and Jeff Hoffman.

And then you see all the real pieces of veteran guidance on this Reds team just immediately getting hurt. Jonathan India may be back now but he was away for most of the year, which has given a very disappointing sophomore effort, one where he's only hitting .249. Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson and Mike Moustakas are all out. Really, the most reliable veteran on this team is Kyle Farmer, and THAT's not good. Even if you do have people like Aristedes Aquino, Jake Fraley, Donovan Solano and T.J. Friedl creeping up and inheriting this team, there's SO MANY holes, and so many replacement pieces that even if everybody's healthy for 2023, it's gonna be hard to really decide who's the best choice for many positions considering the incomplete 2022 numbers. 

It is obvious that the Reds are probably gonna tank for a few more years and let the pitching do the talking for a while, but even if they're bringing up decent hitting prospects, it's still gonna be very difficult for them to not lose 100 games next year. They already tried big prospect Spencer Steer and he's only hitting .220. Chuckie Robinson's a potential future catching option and he's not hitting. Alejo Lopez is hitting .295 but isn't a great defender. The only real rookie type that's making much headway in the lineup is Stuart Fairchild, and that's almost inexplicable seeing that he was cup-of-coffee-ing himself through the league earlier this year. 

While I do think that Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Overton could keep this team safe through 6 for another few years, the Reds' future is contingent on the development of great hitters. And I'm not seeing many of those yet.

Coming Tomorrow- And speaking of prospects expected to inherit teams, a third-baseman who just came up in Arlington.

Rookies of the Year: Only Marginally Better Edition

 

Tim Kurkjian voice: "DID YOOOU KNOW THAT THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THE TWO WINNERS OF THE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD PLAYED FOR TEAMS WHOSE CLUB NAME START WITH THE SAME LETTER SINCE 1999, WHICH COINCIDENTALLY ALSO HAD A CINCINNATI RED WIN?"

So, if you'll recall, last season I got a little mad when the NL Rookie of the Year was revealed and it was a guy who was healthy for under a month. I had a whole rant about how Devin Williams didn't especially change the trajectory of his team, didn't have a season that denied a long, powerful career, and wasn't the single most notable first-year player in the NL that year. 

I do think now that the 2020 ROYs were sort of skewed by the shortening of the season to begin with. With only 60 games to go by, voters had to keep small stints in mind, and that's why Williams ended up winning out. Kyle Lewis probably would have won either way, though.

So going into this year, I wanted fuller areas for voters to choose from, and more of a target when choosing the winners. And to their credit, this year's ROYs both started the season in the majors, and played the entire season up in the majors, with both playing between 141 and 150 games. Both were clearly dominant, had wonderful seasons, and were justified in being the clearest option of the three.

Just one problem. Only the NL picked an actual first-year player. 

Jonathan India I have no qualms with. Around June I figured he'd have a nice shot for ROY, outdid Trevor Rogers and Dylan Carlson, and came out to a huge defensive lead in a lot of categories. That pick is totally valid because India's career started in 2021. 

But...this year wasn't Randy Arozarena's rookie year. If we want to get technical, his first career numbers came in 2019 with St. Louis. Then he had playing time in August and September in 2020, and played for the Rays for the entirety of that blistering postseason, becoming a starter and a playoff hero easily. 

And that's the thing. The year of Arozarena's breakout was 2020. He went from a rookie callup to someone who was the controlling voice behind the Rays in less than a month, and was a crucial starter by the time the World Series rolled around. That is a normal rookie arc, and I'd always considered 2020 to be Arozarena's rookie season. Heck, Topps even gave Arozarena rookie cards in the 2020 set, and they seem to think so as well, I think. 

And that's why it bothers me so much that after a rookie campaign last year, Arozarena still was ranked as a rookie this year. This, to me, felt like sophomore numbers. He played the whole season, locked into an everyday role, was a major player in the postseason again, and felt like a member of the team the entire season with no real learning arc. That's not a rookie story, that's a young second-or-third-year story. And because of MLBPA rules, because he was called up after a certain point last year, even if he'd already been called up in 2019, he was still a rookie going into 2021. 

And to me, that's unfair to any other actual first-year trying to compete in the AL category. Randy Arozarena is a second-year player grandfathered into a first year category, and he has no right to have his very accustomed stats be compared to people just getting the hang of MLB play. I kind of figured the award would go to Luis Garcia, who had a great regular season campaign with Houston.

But...then there's the issue of Wander Franco. According to Topps, and their deadline, his rookie year is 2022, and he does not have a rookie card in any 2021 product, despite making his debut in June. It's the same shit they pulled with Yordan Alvarez in 2019. But Franco was eligible for Rookie of the Year this year, and honestly would have had a shot to win had it not been for Arozarena splitting the Tampa vote. I do think Topps' hand making him a 2022 rookie did sway into a lot of voters' decisions, saying that he needed a full year to establish himself rather than going off his strong last few months. Or maybe MLBPA pushing Franco into the race this year gave only a small amount of numbers for voters to go by. 

The bottom line is there are too many rules and regulations denoting what a rookie is. A rookie is a player that is in his first season. It shouldn't be more complex than that. Randy Arozarena's first season was 2020, therefore he really shouldn't be 2021 Rookie of the Year. He's a great player, and he's a Rays hero already, but I don't think he really belonged in the rookie category. I think, if anything, that's doing his strong season a disservice. 

Maybe when the inevitable lockout happens, that'll be one of the things that gets repaired in some way. Or maybe it won't, because nothing that's systemically broken ever gets fixed if fixing it would benefit people who have less money than people that not fixing it would benefit. 

Anyway. Cy Youngs on Wednesday. I'm not deluded enough to think that both my teams are winning this one. Wheeler and Ray, most likely. If it's an NL pitcher other than Zack Wheeler, I'm gonna throw things.

India Summer

 Jonathan India has 11 hits...and 11 RBIs. While sporting a .379 average in his first 8 major league teams ever.

Oh yeah, and the Reds are 6-3 and starting the season in first in the NL Central. Big things are happening in Cincinnati.

I'm not acting like India's come-up has been the sole reason for the Reds' hot start [which was cooled a bit by a series in Arizona], but he's one of the big ones. Like Fernando Tatis in 2019, India came into the season after a phenomenal showing in Spring Training, after which a specific starting spot was paved directly for him [by moving Mike Moustakas back to third where he belongs]. However, while Tatis was more of the power hitter and ball-demolisher, India is excelling more as a contact hitter right now, despite his aforementioned 11 RBIs. 

However, when you look at a lot of the rest of this team, India's .379 looks pretty common. Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart, Tyler Naquin, Nick Castellanos, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Tyler Stephenson are ALL playing beautifully right now. Naquin and Castellanos were going up against each other with homers for a while back there, and Naquin is currently higher with 5. Stephenson and Barnhart combine to give the catching position in Cincinnati a +0.9 WAR in the first week and a half of the season. 

Things are going really well, especially with this lineup. 

And then...there's the rotation, which hasn't exactly clicked yet. Luis Castillo, Jose de Leon and Jeff Hoffman have had trouble in early starts. Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley [who, fun fact, have the exact same last name if you are a southerner] have been impressive so far, though, but...it's clear that taking Anthony Desclafani, Trevor Bauer and, for the moment, Sonny Gray out of this rotation weakens it a little bit. I expect Castillo to rebound, but if there are gonna be holes in this once-strong rotation, it's gonna be easy to exploit, no matter who's hitting well.

Also, if the Reds are intent on using Amir Garrett in the ninth over Sean Doolittle, Garrett is gonna need to give up far less runs in save situations. Doo is sitting there and not giving up any runs, and he's looking like a better option for closer than Amir Garrett and his 15 ERA. I love Garrett, I think he's a fantastic relief option, but I don't think his closing stuff is gonna cut it right now. 

This is a flawed team, no doubt, but if that lineup stays this good, and if the great elements of this team stay great, we could have a legitimate NL Central contender on our hands. I say this as the Brewers and Cardinals still definitely exist, but...hell, it could be close. You never know.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most cerebral pitchers in baseball...you know, the one who doesn't use illegal substances on his baseballs.