Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Royals

 

2024 was the year that, after several seasons of threatening to, the Kansas City Royals put together an intimidating, varied playoff-caliber team that chased off the Twins and made it to a tough, breakneck ALDS against the Yankees. They didn't win, and the Yanks didn't have too much trouble with them, but now that Bobby Witt, Cole Ragans, Lucas Erceg and Seth Lugo have gotten a taste of the postseason with this team, they're gonna want even more. And with the shifting of tides in this division, it is attainable.

M.J. Melendez, for a few years, has been a defensive liability for the Royals, both at catcher and in the outfield. But now, with a permanent outfield role, Melendez may have had his best season to date in the field. Yes, he had a -7 defensive WAR figure, but that's a step up from the norm. Melendez's plate numbers actually took a dive this year, as he only hit .206 with 44 RBIs and 17 homers. In the postseason, though, he was responsible for 2 RBIs and a crucial home run.

2025 Prediction: Between Kyle Isbel, Joey Wiemer, and arguably Dairon Blanco and Jonathan India, the Royals will have more above-average defensive options next year. I think they'll DH Melendez a lot, and his value will go up.

Prior to the season, the Royals invested in some replacement level veterans, who provided stability til the potential for homegrown players, or, more accurately, the addition of above-replacement-level veterans late in the season. Hunter Renfroe, in his sixth team since leaving the Padres, was excessively mediocre in Kansas City, hitting .229 with 52 RBIs and 15 home runs in 120 games, with no luck in the postseason either. 

2025 Prediction: The slightest improvement but I don't think he'll be starting for whoever signs him.

Similarly, the Royals got Adam Frazier to act as a placeholder infielder til Michael Massey was trusted again. The Orioles used Frazier this way last year til they were more confident in Gunnar Henderson. 2024 went similarly for Frazier, as he hit .202 with 22 RBIs and 4 homers in 104 games, while also providing decent defense at 2nd and in the outfield.

2025 Prediction: Yeah I think at this point Frazier's a career replacement-level depth infielder, so let's see...who isn't sure about the strength of their middle-infielder rookie? The Mets with Mauricio? The Tigers? If not the Guardians get 'im.

Dairon Blanco was the Royals' designated depth outfielder this year, brought in to pinch run and also sub in defensively. In 88 games, Blanco stole 31 bases [as many as Bobby Witt], and hit .258 with 13 RBIs and 4 homers. Blanco is a very handy guy to have around, and his speed will ensure he continues to be a part of these teams.

2025 Prediction: He starts a bit more and puts together a fuller all-around season.

The Royals were truly excellent at midyear pickups, not only having a terrific deadline but using the waiver deals and free agency to keep the team fresh. Michael Lorenzen was a key trade deadline deal, coming over from the Rangers after a strong start. Lorenzen, like in Philly last year, missed a few starts due to injuries, but was sharp when healthy, with a 1.57 ERA, 22 Ks and a 1.2 WAR in 7 starts. He also struck out 3 in the postseason, though he did walk away with a loss.

2025 Prediction: I think he stays in one place all next year, and he stays healthy. A competitor gets him as a low rotation piece and he gives them a really nice year.

And then, in addition to signing Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman, the Royals took a flyer on 40-year-old Yuli Gurriel, who hadn't played yet in 2024, as a replacement for the hurt Vinnie Pasquantino. Gurriel was above-average at 1st, and hit .241 with with 6 RBIs in 18 games. He also had 4 postseason hits, continuing his excellent October production.

2025 Prediction: I would assume he retires but something tells me he still wants to play. And a minor league deal did well enough for him last year, even if the Braves never brought him up.

Coming Tomorrow- The Detroit Tigers were counted out midway through the season. Then, inexplicably, they beat the Astros in a playoff series. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Marlins

 

The Miami Marlins made the playoffs this year. They also fired the GM that got them here and might be without their ace for another year or so, but...let's at least focus on the good things.

The Marlins built so much over the course of the year by making smart moves, like getting a batting title guy in Luis Arraez to revitalize the contact hitting, swinging A.J. Puk before the season to aid the bullpen, and getting both Jake Burger and Josh Bell to keep the lineup alive in the season's final months. It may not have been enough to stop the Phillies from doing their thing, but it was enough to prove themselves as an underrated force of hitting.

As he has been in the past few years, Jon Berti has been a wonderfully versatile piece that played multiple positions and filled many roles both as a contact hitter, base-stealer and utility guy. This year Berti hit .294 with 114 hits, fourth on the Marlins, and 16 steals. 

2024 Prediction: He's 34. He's given the Marlins a lot. I think he might slip a little bit, even if he does show sparks of his usual material in points.

After 7 wonderful seasons as the first baseman in Houston, the Astros moved on from Yuli Gurriel, and so did the 39-year-old Gurriel, signing a deal with the Marlins. I think because he played for so long, combining his Cuba numbers, Gurriel isn't gonna hang it up until he's 100% sure he's out of juice. So Gurriel tried his hand at another year for Miami, and he was alright. Gurriel hit .245 with 27 RBIs in 108 games, which probably led to the Marlins needing to get Bell.

2024 Prediction: He wants to keep playing. But does anyone want to sign him? Honestly...I think he does one more season somewhere small and then hangs it up.

Joey Wendle's second season in Miami was a step down for his first, at least offensively, as he hit .212 this year with 63 hits in 112 games. The good news is that Wendle is still an excellent defender, and as the starting shortstop he still put himself above the pack. 

2024 Prediction: I think Wendle will be a defensive sub in New York, as they pretty much have the starting infield down, but I think they'll like him in Queens.

As Jacob Stallings is looking more like a backup than ever, the starting catching position went to Nick Fortes, who, while decent defensively, is clearly no J.T. Realmuto at the plate. The 26-year-old hit .206 with 60 hits in 108 games. He was definitely an 'he's what we've got' pick for Miami, but there's always a chance he could improve.

2024 Prediction: Hits higher than .204 at the plate, but don't be surprised if the Marlins pursue an offensive upgrade behind the plate.

One of the most incredible relief seasons of 2023 came from former Orioles relief man Tanner Scott, in his second season for the Marlins. Scott put on a show this season, with a 9-5 record, a 2.31 ERA, a 0.987 WHIP, 12 saves and 108 strikeouts in 74 games. He was also unhittable in one postseason inning against Philadelphia. No matter what he accomplishes next for Miami, the fans will always remember Scott's 2023 season.

2024 Prediction: He will not top that, but he'll still do decently.

Here's something I wasn't expecting- former Rockies utility bat Garrett Hampson actually accomplished a lot for the Marlins in a similar utility role. In 98 games, Hampson hit .276 with 61 hits and 23 RBIs. Hampson really is a cool player to have around, and while the Marlins will have to find utility help elsewhere next year, he's definitely reestablished his legitimacy.

2024 Prediction: I mean, at this rate, he might start a lot more games than the Royals are anticipating.

Lost in the shuffle of Burger and Bell was the Marlins' sly trade for David Robertson, who was having his second straight stellar first half, this one with the Mets. Like last year, his numbers bobbled upon a trade, and while the Marlins made the deal looking for a new closing option, Robertson had a 5.06 ERA with only 4 saves in 22 games. The team had to turn to Tanner Scott to help them out in the ninth for September, and thankfully he did a job, but it was clear that D-Rob let them down.

2024 Prediction: I think this is honestly a good place to call it a day. I'm not sure he thinks that, but I do.

Coming Tomorrow- Several reasons why the Mets couldn't get it done this year.

Game 4: The Other Shoe Drops

 

There's a terrible SNL sketch where Kenan Thompson plays a high school student who keeps getting injured every time his classmates convince him he can walk without crutches or a wheelchair or something, and every time this happens, he falls, and then he does a minute-long angry monologue through tears, mostly consisting of 'GO AWAY', 'LEAVE ME BE' and 'GEDDAWAYFROMEARHE' and things of this nature. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I feel very similar to Kenan Thompson in this sketch right now. I had the will to believe, the exact same thing that has happened already this year happened again on a larger stage, and now I just want everyone to go away. 

Folks....honestly, I've got nothing. I figured the Astros would get to Nola, I figured the Phillies wouldn't be able to hit Javier, I figured the Astros' bullpen would be stronger than ours. I just...I dunno, I kinda thought last night meant we wouldn't get no-hit, or even shut out, anymore. It's the same as it's been all year, the Phillies will have a tremendous game where everyone shows, and then they'll get absolutely embarrassed right when everyone believes in them.

It just goes to show that, even if the Astros rank Cristian Javier lower in the rotation, he's still absolutely filthy, and can have nights like this anytime he wants. This is his second no-hitter of the year, and people are still gonna underrate him. I think he's gonna play a much larger role in this rotation next year, especially with Verlander potentially not being in the picture next year. 

As for the Phils...mother of god I hope this isn't the turning point. Getting no-hit has gotta be the low point of this Series, right? We've gotta use that to never give them the opportunity to embarrass us again, right? This seemed like such a possibility, and now it's evaporated before our eyes and now here we are...really feeling as small as the sportswriters have made us feel this entire postseason. That'd be a shitty way to go, right? 

I hope that tonight's game is a ton better. We deserve one last chance to give the Philly crowd a show, and in the baby blue throwbacks as well. 

Yuli, Madly, Deeply

 The Astros are back, guys! I know you're all excited to see them climbing back up the standings!

Look, I don't know if the Astros have fully embraced their status as the villains of baseball, but they're certainly playing like they don't care if nobody wants them to win. They had a weak spell a few years back, it leveled them a bit, but now they're back after some series' with the Angels, Mariners and Rays, they're back into the race, chasing the Ms for second and waiting for their chance to level the A's a bit. 

The core of this team is still capable of big things. Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel have been playing beautifully so far, and both are hitting over .300 right now. Yordan Alvarez hasn't been perfect in his return from injury, but he's still hitting .315 with 14 RBIs, so it could be a lot worse. Bregman is still a power-hitting machine. There's still people like Kyle Tucker, Martin Maldonado and Jose Altuve who could be doing better, but the lineup is moving in the right direction.

The rotation has shifted in their approach, and is centering less around veterans like Zack Greinke and more around the homegrown younger group from the last few years. Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers and Jose Urquidy are really the bulk of this rotation, and now Luis Garcia has been starting games and hitting a 2.70 ERA. It's not a perfect rotation, and the lack of Justin Verlander is still quite glaring, but it's a more unassuming and practical rotation. We're far from the 5-man chaos of the 2018 team, but we're close. 

This team is a bit more unpolished and human than previous recent Astros teams, but judging by last season, being unpolished isn't going to stop the Astros from making the playoffs. What will need to stop them is not being one of the best teams in the AL, and the A's have enough right now to stop them in their tracks if they keep clashing with this speed. I'm very wary of this Astros team, but I don't fear them like I've feared other incarnations of it.

Coming Tonight: Right now, Byron Buxton and Jacob de Grom have the top two WARs in baseball. Tied for third with Mike Trout is a former backup catcher from St. Louis. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Astros

 

2020 proved that without Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch, the men that helped the Astros cheat, and Gerrit Cole, the man that made the Astros unhittable, the Houston Astros were...still able to advance up until the ALCS. 

Obviously the Astros weren't reprimanded enough. The tools to win is embedded in the foundation of this team, and once we get rid of that, the Astros will finally become the tanking sad-sacks we want them to be. Losing George Springer this year will propel them towards that outcome.

They still have a few more years left of Jose Altuve, though, who took the next step in his transformation from one of the premier defensive contact hitters in the game to just another one-dimensional power hitter. For the first time ever, Altuve finished a season with a negative WAR, an average below .275 and more than 75% as many strikeouts as he did hits. Definitely a weak season from the guy who, prior to cheating, was looking like a career talent.

2021 Prediction: A full season brings a higher average, but I still think he's gonna be focusing on his home run totals and less on contact. A .250 average and a low WAR awaits.

Another victim of not only the shorter season but the lack of trashcans was Yuli Gurriel. After batting into the .290s for the last 3 years, Gurriel saw his average drop to .232, and hit 22 RBIs and 6 home runs. Like Altuve, he also had a negative WAR this year. Just putting that out there.

2021 Prediction: Will not end the year in Houston.

Like last year, Jose Urquidy was brought up in the last third of the season and made some crucial playoff starts for the Astros. In 5 regular season starts he had a 2.75 ERA and 17 strikeouts. In 3 postseason starts he had 12 strikeouts but 2 no-decisions and a loss. Clearly his prowess isn't to blame in those counts, as he's still a durable arm.

2021 Prediction: The Astros do what they should have done this year and keep him in the rotation starting in April, he'll win 10 games and strike out 150. 

After being a minor prospect and sixth-string starter for the last few years in Houston, Framber Valdez finally got the majority of the season to make crucial starts. In 10 starts, he had a 3.57 ERA, a 5-3 record, and a club-high 76 strikeouts. He also had a 3-1 record this postseason, with 24 strikeouts in 26 innings.

2021 Prediction: An ASG gig, 200 strikeouts, and some borderline ace status as Greinke and Verlander leave.

One of the more unlikely Rookie of the Year candidates was Cristian Javier, who began the year as a relief option for the Astros and eventually became a crucial starting option for the team. Javier did not disappoint, with a 3.48, a 5-2 record and 54 Ks, in addition to posting the highest WAR of any pitcher in Houston with 1.3. 

2021 Prediction: A sophomore slump is imminent, but the majority of his losses will be due to the lack of run support that is imminent for an Astros team without Brantley and Springer. 

Last year's amusing fringe relief rookie was Josh James. This year, we had two in Houston. One of them was Andre Scrubb, the imposing, long-armed longer-reliever who dazzled opponents with a 1.90 ERA, only 5 earned runs, and 24 strikeouts. 

2021 Prediction: A few more saves than he's expecting, but a much higher ERA.

The other rookie relief fringe guy was Enoli Paredes, who was already making waves out of summer camp with his speed, and continued on into the season as a crucial relief option for the pitching-friendly Astros. Paredes posted a 3.05 ERA in 20.2 innings.

2021 Prediction: When Ryan Pressly fumbles the closing gig, Paredes will be the first man they hand it to, and he won't disappoint.

There were a few bench players for the Astros that didn't make much of an impact, like Myles Straw and Abraham Toro and guys like that. Really, the best bench option for the 'Stros was Aledmys Diaz. In his second year in Houston, Diaz hit .241 in 17 games, and was a solid, durable backup option at 2nd base. 

2021 Prediction: Continues in this limited role in Houston for a few months, and eventually weasels into a starting gig, either in Houston or a smaller-market team.

Coming Tomorrow- Customs from an AL West team who decided to not cheat and had a winning record.

ALDS Update: That's More Like It Edition

Okay, so the outcome we were all kind of expecting from this ALDS matchup did end up happening...it just took longer to shake out than we thought.

All this means is that everyone who predicted the Astros would win the entire thing just need to adjust some figures, and say it may take a few more games for them to win a series. Or, considering that they had trouble with the Rays, and they're about to play a Yankee team that demolished the #1 home-run-hitting team of the year...yeah, maybe a few more figures as well.

Still, considering the offensive onslaught that came down on Tyler Glasnow's tipped pitches last night, thanks to Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley later off of Emilio Pagan, the Yanks might still have some real trouble with this team in the ALCS next week. Considering how sharp Gerrit Cole was, and considering where Zack Greinke could be when he starts Game 1 (I mean, this is assuming a lot), the Yanks' offense may be muffled quite a bit.

Still, glad they made it. Good for baseball.

That's not to say that a Rays win wouldn't have been good for baseball, but seeing as two surprise, bottom-feeder teams already made it into the NLCS, a third would have made Rob Manfred very angry. And we don't want him angrier than he already is at the single most calm game of the big four.

This Rays team certainly outdid expectations, I'd say. The lineup was strong through all five games, the bullpen came alive when it was needed most, and even Eric Sogard had a big postseason hero moment last night amidst the Houston dominance. But, unfortunately, they couldn't get past playing a division series against the Astros. As fun as it would have been to see them play the Yankees in the ALCS, and it might have been easier for them, nothing was stopping Houston.

I hope the Rays keep a great deal of this team around for 2020, because this one just really worked.

So...tonight, we're right into the NLCS. Nats-Cardinals in St. Louis. Sanchez vs. Mikolas. Battle of the teams that really shouldn't be here. Sure to be interesting.

The Astros vs. Inevitability

Here's the deal, folks. If you win the World Series one year...it is VERY DIFFICULT to win it again the very next year. It has not been done since the Yankees, 1998-2000. That was three in a row...and that was the Yankees. It takes a certain type of Super-team to win consecutive World Series titles, i.e.: Connie Mack A's of the 30s, A's and Reds of the 70s, Yankees of the 90s.

Now...this is the year we find out whether or not the Houston Astros is that sort of super-team. Because we haven't had a team like that recently. I mean, we've had perennially great teams, like the Giants of the early 2010s, and these Cubs teams nowadays, but...a lot of the W.S. caliber teams, like the Royals, have fallen apart since winning the title.

And the Astros...still look pretty damned strong. They've not only retained the skill of their 2017 roster, without letting many of the players go, but...they might be even stronger. The pitching? Oh my god. If last year's rotation had one or two weaknesses...the only weakness now is some general Dallas Keuchel inconsistency. Plus, the closer issue? Not really a thing anymore, since Roberto Osuna, battery notwithstanding, is holding the fort pretty damned well.

Again, the lineup was pretty worrying for a split second, but now that Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer are ALL BACK...it's looking a lot better. Yuli Gurriel, for a brief second, was one of the more crucial bats on the team, but now that the weight is a little less on his shoulders, he's breathing a bit easier. Still, this is a team where people like Gurriel and Josh Reddick can step up in a moment of weakness.

This Astros team is still on first, and has managed to fend off Oakland. With a month or so left in the season, they need to hold onto their momentum, and try to make it to another World Series, and keep the dynasty going. I think they've got it in them, but this playoff season might be a particularly tough one to outlast.

Coming Tonight: The Dodgers have so many great pitchers this year, that even this guy, who I was worried about for a second, is having a great year.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2016: Astros

It saddens me that the Astros couldn't make as strong of a run as they did in 2015, but this season definitely wasn't too far of a step behind, thanks to the strong work that A.J. Hinch has been doing up front. The team's still in progress, and is a few steps away from getting back...steps they've been taking already this postseason.

Dallas Keuchel didn't have anywhere near as good of a season as he had in 2015, but he tried his best, and still did well in the strikeout category.

Luis Valbuena spent a lot of the season circling the DL, but he's still a nice little player, and I'm glad he's found somewhere to stick around and become a starting team player. Hopefully he'll be a bit better in 2017, and potentially a more permanent 3rd base option.

Collin McHugh had to take a lot of the reins of the rotation this season, and he did a pretty admirable job, doing some strong work in the wins category, and leading the team in strikeouts.

Yulieski Gurriel was a late addition, as well as a Cuban import, and he did his best in the last month or so of the season. I think he'll be like a Yasmany Tomas-type, just an all-around player that can play anywhere and hit in the clutch.

We end with the closer. After Luke Gregerson blew the job, Ken Giles, former Philadelphia closer, was brought in to save the job, and while he wasn't perfect, he did a good enough job that I get to make a custom of him. Hoping he gets the gig next year, too. I'm still a fan of his from his Philly days.

Coming Tomorrow- The A's had a pretty down year, but not ALL was lost- after all, they have one of the most overlooked youth movements in the bigs.