Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Pirates

 

I will give the Pirates credit for improving as the season went on. This team was better under Don Kelly than it was under Derek Shelton, and Kelly's leadership could keep this team on the up-and-up. The team used a starring role from Paul Skenes and tried a ragtag contact approach, which didn't work as well because nobody had an especially high OPS. There were more spots for up-and-comers and rookies, and more room for the big draft picks to play. It was another last place finish, but now you're seeing an actual desire, organizationally, to compete. They made Kyle Schwarber an offer. True, he didn't take it, but they're trying to make moves. They have Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery down for next year, that's definitely something. I think the priority should be trying to lock down Skenes, but, y'know, Nutting doesn't want that for some reason.

Even in a lost year, what really saved the Pirates' ass in the second half was another incredible defensive season from Jared Triolo. Triolo missed time in the first half, then came back and became one of the most statistically valuable pieces of this team, with a 2.3 WAR accumulated mostly from his excellent infield defense. That's the thing about this team, the defense was so good [between Triolo, Davis, and the soon-to-depart Hayes and IKF] that it made you wish the offense was better. At the very least Triolo stole 13 bases.

2026 Prediction: Loses some playing time to Brandon Lowe, but improves slightly at the plate, and stays all year.

Tommy Pham was looking like a waste of a contract, considering that during the first half his numbers were absolutely miserable. There was a reported story of, during a game, Tommy Pham waiting outside PNC Park for his Uber Eats to arrive, that made him look entirely checked out. So at some point Pham decided to lock in, because in June he hit .302 and in July he hit .388, with 21 RBIs in that time, plus some decent defense. Beyond that he was a .200 hitter with a mean streak.

2026 Prediction: Tries to make camp with a low market competitor, doesn't make the team and is himself about it. 

Despite keeping Mitch Keller, the Pirates had a lot of open spots in the rotation, and many were filled by rookies. Mike Burrows got 23 games and 19 starts out of a come-up, and did pretty well with it, posting a 3.94 ERA and 97 Ks. The Pirates thanked him for this excellent come-up by trading him to Houston.

2026 Prediction: He stays healthy, wins 10 games. Not sure if the Astros are gonna be competitive next year, but Burrows will help.

Henry Davis was a #1 overall pick in 2021, and in the majors so far he's yet to show why. He got another nice look this year, and in 87 games he hit .167 with 7 homers and 22 RBIs, despite some excellent work on defense. This was another weak year for Davis, a guy the Pirates were sure would be a strong piece by now.

2026 Prediction: Finally takes off.

Johan Oviedo had battled injuries for a year or so, but made it up for 9 games and impressed, with a 3.57 ERA and 42 Ks. It was enough to give the Pirates extra stability in August and September, which was needed. He's also important because he landed Jhostynxon Garcia in Pittsburgh, and I see very big things happening there.

2026 Prediction: Is an okay 4th option in Boston but I'm pretty sure the Pirates are gonna win that trade.

And with the parachute basically pulled on this season, the Pirates went ahead and brought Bubba Chandler, Baseball America's #7 prospect going into the 2025 season, up to the big club. Chandler had some highs and lows in his 7 games, and despite 4 wins, 32 Ks and a 0.926 WHIP he had an ERA of 4.02. I do applaud the Pirates for letting him start more and more as the season went on after starting as a long-man.

2026 Prediction: Chandler will join Skenes and Jones at the top of that rotation and ensure that this team doesn't lose 90 games again next year. 

Coming Tomorrow- A ton of leftovers from a Rangers season that killed the dream. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Cardinals

 

It's kind of wild to me that, despite the numerous elements of this Cardinals team that continued to disappoint this year, and despite this being the second year in a row where they didn't make the playoffs despite having, fundamentally, the team to do so, the Cardinals finished in 2nd place, and over .500. In a division where the Reds went in competitive and the Pirates sparked fire midyear, the Cardinals still finished ahead of them. 

Granted, the Cardinals and Cubs tied for second, but the Cardinals will take the formality. It's enough to say it was at least an improvement, and that means management can keep Oli Marmol and continue the current path of mediocrity.

And I have to stress, this is good for me. I'm enjoying the Cardinals not being competitive. This, the Patriots and the Cowboys at the same time? This is great! But you get the sense that this could be avoided if everyone, including ownership, was on the same page. And they're not. So we got this Cardinals team that is simultaneously too past their prime to make an impact and too inexperienced to factor into anything. Having a rotation of guys over 35 and an outfield of guys under 25 is really pulling things in two different directions, and hopefully this team picks a side going forward.

It's been clear that since winning the MVP, Paul Goldschmidt has backed off of his prime offensive material, and 2024 was the biggest taste of mediocrity yet for the future Hall of Fame corner infield. For the first time since his rookie year, the 36-year-old had a bWAR figure below ten, just a measly 3. This year he hit .245 with 22 homers and 65 RBIs, and ended with a 1.3 WAR, a new career low for a full season. In fairness, he has been at this for a while, and he did have ten or so years where he was one of the best pure hitters in baseball, including the majority of his 30s to this point. So after everything he's given the Cardinals, he didn't owe them much else in the final year of his contract. But it does feel like a disappointment still.

2025 Prediction: Gee, Paul Goldschmidt is a couple years away from retirement and his old team might have an opening at 1st base. I wonder what's gonna happen!

I think I'm mostly impressed that the Cardinals' Miles Mikolas experiment, which began with a signing out of Japan in 2018, has lasted this long. True, there was an injury break in the middle, but Mikolas has persisted as a staple of the team's rotations even stretching into 2024. Now, granted, Mikolas is now 36 and is very much the product of multiple surgeries, but he still started 32 games this season. Granted, he went 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA, plus a -0.2 WAR, but he still ate innings and struck out 122. I think they just needed reliable arms this year, and for one of the guys in their 30s to be that must have helped considering how many weren't.

2025 Prediction: He's got one more year left on the contract, but does he have anything left in the tank for it? Maybe a little?

For the second consecutive season, despite the idea that he might finally do so, Jordan Walker just didn't happen. The Cardinals' hopes are high for this guy, he has all the potential, but it's just not happening at an MLB level yet. In 51 games he hit .201 with 33 hits, 5 homers, 20 RBIs and 50 strikeouts. Bringing up Victor Scott II was just as problematic, as Scott is doing the same high-strikeout/no-payoff stuff as Walker right now.

2025 Prediction: Walker will be 23. I say something finally happens this year, though not at full power yet. 

Thanks to a midyear injury to Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera went from backup to everyday backstop, and it went alright for him. The 24-year-old hit .301 with 69 hits, 27 RBIs and 5 homers in 72 games, making him one of the most important contact hitters on the team. Unfortunately his defense isn't great. And with Contreras moving to 1st base next year, Herrera being the primary backstop might mean the years of exemplary defense behind the plate in St. Louis may be coming to an end.

2025 Prediction: Maybe not AS useful as a contact hitter, but still a key part of this team. I don't think he'll be the primary catcher all year though. They're gonna get somebody at this rate.

So. You start the season with an outfield arrangement of Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker and Victor Scott. You've got to send two of them down, and Nootbaar will be back at some point, plus Brendan Donovan can play left. So you're missing a piece that can stay in place. So...it's wild that the Cardinals not only went with former Reds castoff Michael Siani, but that he actually worked out for them. Siani made the CF spot his own, and in 124 games provided some of the best defense of the OF unit [yes, even better than Noot], despite some middling offensive results. Siani got hurt with 2 months to go, and thus the team had to call on Walker again, but it's nice to know he'll be an option for the Cards going forward.

2024 Prediction: Siani's gonna chase a gold glove next year, and perhaps be the OF anchor the team's always needed. He'll hit .250 in addition.

The Phillies, it's clear, won their side of the trade that brought Edmundo Sosa to their bench, but it's important to note that the Cardinals' return, reliever JoJo Romero, has also been pretty nice for them. Romero peaked midyear, but still finished with a 3.36 ERA and a 7-3 record in 65 appearances. Generally, the Cardinals' bullpen was pretty strong this year, and if Romero sticks around they could build something.

2025 Prediction: Not quite as consistent but will be on call for the whole season.

You'd probably have needed ample knowledge of baseball reference dot com to know that up until 2023, the longest tenured Tampa Bay Ray was not Brandon Lowe but, rather, reliever Andrew Kittredge, who capped off seven seasons with the club last year. In Tampa, that's the equivalent of a 20-year career. Kittredge had been hurt since his ASG season in 2021, and was traded due to those diminishing returns. But the Cardinals put Kittredge to good use, as he had his fullest season to date, and clearly his best since 2021. In 75 appearances, Kittredge had a 2.80 ERA with 67 Ks. With the exception of Matthew Liberatore, who started a few games, Kittredge got the most use of any Cardinals reliever this year.

2025 Prediction: It'd be really nice if Kittredge got 2 straight consistent, healthy seasons...but this is the 2020s, and he's 35. So probably a step or so down.

Andre Pallante has been an integral swingman for the last few years of Cardinals baseball, going from an impressive fifth starter in 2022 to a strong longman reliever last year. This year, Pallante, like in 2022, started in the pen and got to start 20 games as the options lessened. Despite an 8-8 record he had a 3.68 ERA and 94 Ks, and kept at it as the workload increased in the final months of the year,

2025 Prediction: Gets to start from the jump and provides consistency throughout, even if he's not the flashiest pitcher out there.

2024 marked Matt Carpenter's return to the Cardinals, after a wild couple years DHing for New York and San Diego. I have no idea what happened to bring on Carpenter's June 2022, but it may not happen again, as Carpenter's back to low average stuff as a depth bat. In 59 games, he hit .234 with 4 homers and 15 RBIs. 

2025 Prediction: I assume he hangs it up but he could still be convinced he has something left and sign somewhere he can play regularly.

Speaking of low risk veteran pickups, Brandon Crawford played for the Cardinals this year, in a tenure that will really only be good to freak out Giants fans by reminding them of its existence. Not only was Crawford battling an exceptional Masyn Winn performance for SS starts, but he's 37 and doesn't really have his strongest stuff anymore. In 28 games he hit .169 and was below average in the infield, meaning he was let go mid year.

2025 Prediction: Retirement.

And because there was a definite chance of creeping into the wild card race, the Cardinals made deals at the deadline, including being a part of the blockbuster that brought Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech, ultimately, their rings. But for a while it looked like the Cardinals got the better end of the deal, getting Erick Fedde, one of the biggest assets the White Sox had in the first half. Ultimately, once he got to St. Louis, the magic wore off for Fedde, as he went 2-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 starts. Not that this was a bad run, but compared to his 4.7 WAR first half with Chicago it was ultimately forgettable.

2025 Prediction: Fedde will be the Cardinals' best starter next year. He may not get the whole season to savor it, but he'll find whatever he had in Chicago again.

And though he ended the season with Kansas City, Tommy Pham did return to St. Louis for a month as part of the blockbuster deal. The idea was to bring back an old favorite and get him back to the playoffs, and while Pham had been strong with the White Sox, he only hit .206 with 12 RBIs and 2 homers in 23 games for the Cardinals. His big highlight was hitting a grand slam in his first at-bat of the season for St. Louis. He never got back to that feeling on that side of Missouri, and had a much better fall for the Royals.

2025 Prediction: A new, unique team will be added to Pham's bingo card to join the other nine he's already played for. My pick: Pittsburgh. 

Coming Tomorrow- As close as the Cardinals got this year, the Cubs got closer. But, for the second year in a row, the postseason was too far. 

Division Series' Day 6: The Script Flips

 

As it turns out, if you complain enough that people aren't showing up, they eventually do. And that's how we get a Game-5-forcing Guardians win led by David Fry, Jose Ramirez and Emmanuel Clase. You complain enough, and they eventually start hitting.

The Tigers have been more of a match for the Guardians than anybody thought, and with Reese Olson, Trey Sweeney and Riley Greene providing cover for most of the game, it was getting slightly worrying that the Guardians wouldn't be able to offer up a rebuttal, once again. I'm still worried about the power of the first round bye, and the Guardians are the kind of team that I figured was better than the bye slump. And if the Tigers won this game, I'd be drafting a letter to Rob Manfred that he'd no doubt be throwing straight into the shredder. So thankfully, this soon became the David Fry game at the expense of the Guardians' bullpen.

The Guardians are a great team, and they could definitely go deep if they're able to get past Game 5. Now...I used to be more definite that they WOULD be able to hop this hurdle, and with the Tigers starting Tarik Skubal in Game 5 it may be way more difficult for them to do so, but I still favor Cleveland. If they lose, take your pick, you can blame it on the bye or you can blame it on Skubal. 

The last time the Yankees were in the ALCS with a team that was not the Houston Astros was 2012, 12 years ago. It came after a very tight ALDS with Baltimore that, quite frankly, we shouldn't have won. By the end of that we were exhausted, and had no energy left. There is a very big chance that the Yankees' first ALCS in 12 years could be against the very team that swept us then, the Detroit Tigers. This is, however, a very different Tigers team. Much younger, much scrappier, much more unpredictable. And the thing is that even if the Guardians make it instead, that's also a scrappy, young, unpredictable team as well. So either way, it will not be easy to win our first ALCS in 15 years. 

But I think about how tense those first two games were against the Royals in New York. It was neck and neck, biting back and forth. And then I think about these two in Kansas City. Close, but manageable. It took us time, but we figured them out, thanks to great pitching from Clarke Schmidt and Gerrit Cole, and great offensive work from Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto. Once Luke Weaver closed the door, the haze lifted, and this team waltzed to homefield advantage in an Astros-less ALCS. I couldn't believe it in a sense, but seeing as the Royals were a tough but still beatable opponent, I'm happy it came that easy to us.

The bye tried to hold the Yankees back, and it couldn't. We'll see how they do against whoever comes out on top in Cleveland this weekend. But I'm excited for the prospect of a Yankee team that *could* go further, for once.

Somebody inevitably had to be the bridesmaid in this AL Central scuffle, and it needed to be someone like the Royals. They had a wonderful season, finally succeeding where other Matt Quatraro teams had failed and running into the playoffs, then taking down Baltimore. They had great moments in this series, courtesy of people like Cole Ragans, Salvador Perez, Michael Massey and Vinnie Pasquantino. Even tonight, Tommy Pham still went 3 for 3, with three solid hits. Even when this team is down, somebody like Pham keeps chasing, which is EXACTLY WHY YOU GET SOMEONE LIKE PHAM. 

The Royals will be back with a vengeance next year, hopefully with a fully healed Pasquatch, a more October-ready bullpen, and possibly even a bigger year from Witt? The sky seems to be the limit. 

Tomorrow, we get to see who'll be hosting the Mets next week. I still think it'll be San Diego but you can never quite count the Dodgers out, can you?

Missouri Loves Company

 

Paul deJong vexes me. He always has, and I'm pretty sure he always will at this rate. 

For a few years, with the Cardinals, he was a consistent, surprising infield bat, with an incredible 2019 season, defensive perks, and an ability to hit for power. Then after a while he completely fell off, and for a few years he just...couldn't get a damned thing done at the plate. The Cardinals cut him last year, he bopped along, wound up starting for the last place White Sox this year and doing well, then was surprise upgrade by the Royals. And at that point he starts playing amazingly and supplanting a killer playoff case.

Now...I may be pulling this out of my ass. But Paul deJong fell apart around the same time the Cardinals did, bided his time and wound up on a much better, upwardly rising Missouri team. Perhaps this was his plan all along. 

With the Royals, deJong has become a flexible, versatile infield bat, who's already hitting .244 with 6 homers and 15 RBIs. deJong is also close to his second 30-homer year, and first since 2019. He's just six away, and seeing as he hit 18 in four months it's not unheard of for him to hit another 6 this month. deJong has made for a nice platoon at third with Maikel Garcia, and has added to the Royals' infield flexibility in general, as they plug Yuli Gurriel in at 1st to cover for Vinnie Pasquantino. It feels like he has more power as a member of this unit than he did in St. Louis.

Which is funny, because the Cardinals, after years of cycling different parts and progressions of their organization around, seem to be locking in for a lot of positions. Brendan Donovan seems to be the answer at 2nd, and is having another strong season defensively. Michael Siani seems to be the answer at CF, as he had an unexpected breakout season there this year. And Jordan Walker and Victor Scott are still getting chances at the corner positions. Meaning what was going to be the feel-good Cardinals story of the year, Tommy Pham returning to hit for contact, got lopped off at the knees when Pham got DFA'd.

So now Pham's joined deJong in Kansas City, which is kinda fitting. I see them both as members of the late-2010s Cardinals regime, both were on for a while and suddenly off for even longer, both had clutch moments like you wouldn't believe. Pham's currently hitting .296 as a Royal, with 4 RBIs in 7 games. This is Pham's seventh team in three years. One might get the sense from that, as well as the fact that he picked a fight with Joc Pederson over something as silly as fantasy football, that people don't enjoy having Tommy Pham on their team, and I think the fact that he's performed WELL for all seven of those teams speaks to the contrary. Pham isn't exactly a babyface type MLB character, his heel turn was expected. But he can still contact hit like hell, and he's still a crucial piece no matter where he plays. Pham has 9 different MLB teams under his belt. He's 36 and hitting competently. I say he keeps going. 

The Cardinals are looking like they're gonna finish the year without a playoff appearance, all while across the state the Royals have enough of a youth movement, and enough pure power, to propel them to a wild card spot. It's a welcome changing of the guard, and it says more about Matt Quatraro's ability to build an inherited team than it does Oli Marmol's. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays traded him for a contact bat. Without realizing they have enough contact bats and they really should hang onto some power bats. 

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals Of 2024

 Kind of a weird, anticlimactic trade deadline this year honestly. Because there was all this hubbub about all these big pieces that might be moving, people like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Garrett Crochet, Luis Robert, Tarik Skubal and Tyler Anderson, and the big tussle of the finishing moments is 'who's gonna land Tanner Banks??'. Like, I remember the 2011 trade deadline coming down to 'who's gonna get Mike Adams', and I'm sitting there going 'THIS can't be the stakes, man.'. And that's where we were this year. A lot of relievers, salary dumps and pawn-offs lining the last moments of the deadline, with the big pieces, for the most part, feeling anticlimactic.

I am gonna do posts not only on the honorable mentions of the deadline, but also the ones I didn't really get, but I was able to pin down a solid Top 10. And somehow, this is a pretty strong Top 10. Y'wanna know how strong? THIS IS NUMBER TEN:

#10: Jazz Chisholm to the Yankees, 3 prospects to the Marlins

I was initially a little caught off guard with this move, not only because I was unsure where exactly Chisholm would play, as the outfield was stocked and we kinda had 2nd base filled, but I was unsure of how will Chisholm would mesh with this team. This team already has a lot of big personalities, people like Alex Verdugo, Marcus Stroman and Juan Soto, and Chisholm is another entity entirely given that the Marlins have already had meetings over how much of a wild card he can be. So yes, the Yankees were getting another really nice piece with a lot of perks, but it could backfire tremendously. He's been pretty strong through his first few games, and already has his first two-homer game as a Yankee [AND HIS SECOND], so I think he's the kind of extra bat this team desperately needed. 

#9: Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing to the Padres, Adam Mazur, Graham Pauley and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

This was the big nail biter of this deadline. WHO'S GONNA GET TANNER SCOTT? And while it could have gone a ton of ways, the Padres pulling the trigger, and doing so in the most explosive way, did impress me. Not only do they get Scott, they get the other really good Marlins reliever, Bryan Hoeing. That's two really excellent bullpen pieces right there, and they're joining people like Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez and Yuki Matsui in that Padres bullpen. The Padres have a lot going for them already, and they've already gotten a big piece from San Diego in Luis Arraez. But now they've taken the best relief piece off the board, and they're going into a NL West picture where they need to outlast the D-Backs and [a little] the Dodgers. This is a really good move. It's just this low because...I can only be so wowed by 'well we're gotten a good reliever, huzzah'.

#8- Michael Lorenzen to the Royals, pitching prospect to the Rangers

One year after trading Cole Ragans to Kansas City, the Rangers essentially get a just return for him. There is something a bit odd about a competitor losing a vital starter, but considering that they're getting a lot of people back, and have already gotten Cody Bradford back, it doesn't worry me as much. Besides, Lorenzen was a depth starter for them anyway, got off to a great start and became an issue when people were on the way back. So now Lorenzen is a low-but-still-mighty starter for the Royals, who just needed one more great rotation piece to fully become a competitor. I hope Lorenzen conserves his arm better than he did with the Phils, and I hope his strong year persists. Cause if so, the Royals just made their wild card case even juicier. 

#7: Zach Eflin to the Orioles, 3 prospects to the Rays

It is...bizarre how many Phillies pitchers wound up on the Orioles this deadline. Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto. In addition to Craig Kimbrel, who's already over there. Eflin is a very crucial starting addition for the Orioles. One would put Trevor Rogers into this category, but I'll get to my issues with that move eventually. Eflin, however, is a proven starting standout, with great years under his belt with Philly and Tampa, and he's coming off another strong year for the Rays. The Orioles have Burnes, Rodriguez and Kremer nailed down, but with Bradish and Means hurt those last two spots need to be better, even with Albert Suarez's surprise year. Eflin is an excellent pick for a rotation spot in Baltimore, and has the probability to succeed where Jack Flaherty failed in Baltimore last year.

#6: Carlos Estevez to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Angels

Even if the Orioles tried to rival them this year, the Angels continue to be the most frequent trade partner for the Philadelphia Phillies. Brandon Marsh and Noah Syndergaard came over thanks to them, and now Carlos Estevez comes over from Anaheim as well. This is a great move to me because I genuinely predicted that it needed to be made. The Phillies lack of a closer has gotten them into trouble this year, and Jose Alvarado has really struggled in the ninth. To me, the most logical 9th inning man for the Phillies to chase was Estevez, as he's been an awesome closer this year, and seems to be the kind of guy that would succeed here. Sure enough, they made this move, and now we've got a great closer finally. There's a chance he lets us down, but he had a really strong run once he really got going, so hopefully he stays on that foot.

#5: Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson to the Braves, Tyler Matzek and a prospect to the Giants.

I'm not normally one for nostalgia moves, or salary dumps, but this one is very useful for both teams. The Giants could still feasibly compete, and clearing the DH position actually helps them more than it wounds them. It also clears up the payroll so they can work on locking up the big pieces. The Braves also needed a surefire power boost after the injuries, and Soler is a great power bat, especially in the postseason, as the Braves found out firsthand. Soler and Jackson were celebrated members of the 2021 team, and while it did take giving up a 2021 player in Matzek to get them back, and it may very likely cost fellow 2021 Brave Eddie Rosario a roster spot, it gives the Braves more to work with as they battle for a playoff spot.

#4: Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham to the Cardinals, Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman to the Dodgers, Miguel Vargas and prospects to the White Sox

Okay. Only mega-deal in the bunch and it's only #4. So...this deal doesn't really change much, honestly. The St. Louis rotation has an average age of like 32, and Fedde's 31 so he only helps a bit, even if he's a much more reliable and consistent arm than a lot of the older options. Pham obviously hits well in St. Louis, he'll keep doing his thing. Kopech is a nice asset for LA, Edman's yet another utility guy joining the Dodgers this month. It...changes things up a little I guess, and Fedde is the big exclamation point here for sure. But all that it really does is slightly reaffirms the Cardinals as a playoff threat while...ridding them of another excess young player, which they seem to be doing a lot lately [would not have called O'Neill, Edman and Carlson all leaving in a span of like 8 months]. I think it does help the Cardinals a lot, but I don't know if it's enough to really establish them as the alpha in the wild card race.

And speaking of the Dodgers' subtle retooling:

#3: Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, prospects to the Tigers

Well, Skubal didn't leave, and Flaherty didn't land in the Bronx, so this is kind of a disappointment by comparison. Not that the Dodgers didn't need Flaherty; they clearly needed pitching help rather than keep rolling out rookies, and Flaherty is definitely sturdier this year than he was in 2023. He will be a reliable, consistent arm that will hopefully stay healthy through to the postseason and give them at least something to work with. It just feels like the Dodgers getting Flaherty is kind of the boring option. Like, the Yankees deal fell through, the other teams wanted too much, let's just go with LA. I think this is a very good move, and could be the most crucial one by year's end. But there's two that I think are game changer moves if all goes according to plan.

#2: Bryan de la Cruz to the Pirates, 2 prospects to the Marlins.

Much higher than I thought. The Pirates have gotten so good recently, are now ahead of the Cardinals in the standings, and are definite wild card players this year. They need more lineup pieces in order to really come through in this race, especially considering the fact that the Astros stopped them from hitting for a while the other night. Getting Isiah Kiner Falefa, while it didn't make the list, is a great contact boost, but getting Bryan de la Cruz, who's had great power AND contact moments for the Pirates, is an excellent move. This is the kind of exciting, powerful player the Pirates needed more of, and putting him in that outfield alongside Reynolds and Taylor makes me feel a ton better about their chances going forward. De la Cruz could struggle, as he has in Miami, but I have a feeling he could spark fire in Pittsburgh.

However, they didn't need a lineup boost as badly as one team, and my god they got one...

#1: Randy Arozarena to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Rays

This shot to the top of the list when it happened early in the week, and fought opposition from so many bigger moves from bigger teams. But honestly, the Mariners getting an incredible power hitter and multi-tool player in Arozarena, right when they desperately need lineup pop as Crawford and Julio go on the IL, was the game changer for me. Randy's struggled this year, but he's still capable of so much, and everyone knows it. It was really only a matter of when the Rays would pawn Arozarena off, and maybe it needed to be now. In his first few games, Arozarena has been very trustworthy for the M's, and there's already been a shift upward for the team. I do think this was the guy they needed, because if he can keep performing like this beyond the return of the other guys, this team could battle back to the top of the division. Or at least it'd be nice if they did. 

So, coming up in the next few days, you'll see some more posts about deals I also thought were noteworthy, and deals that puzzled me. 

The Pham-tom Menace

 

God what a mad team this White Sox club is. The four best players on the team are pitchers,  three of which had little to no MLB experience during the 2023 season. There's only three people in the day-to-day lineup who actually came up in this organization, the same organization that's trying to jumpstart itself. There's multiple people who were once extremely good at baseball just struggling to hit even .215. And one of the sparks of the lineup has been a guy nobody wanted during the offseason that signed late just so he could play.

Tommy Pham might be one of the strangest MLB figures of the last several years. By all accounts, his Rays numbers seemed to indicate a sensible, normal career, and he instead picked the supervillain route. He came to San Diego to perform to his standard, and instead struggled defensively AND offensively in two seasons there. Then split the next two seasons between two teams, performing well at the plate in the first half and feeling like a consolation prize in the second. He decided to get on the bad side of Joc Pederson, one of the most likable players in the game right now, and someone who ironically took over for Pham after he left Arizona. Even when he does well, nobody knows what to think of Tommy Pham. Like he has this sort of polarizing aura about him, not even in a laughable way like Jazz Chisholm. 

And so now, Pham is one of the only people the White Sox fans can properly trust right now. So far, in 15 games, Pham is hitting .293 with 8 RBIs and 2 homers. It's weird that a 36-year-old is hitting better than most of the young kids, and has the best average on the team, but...that's the White Sox for ya. You'll hear things about how Eloy Jimenez is having a good day or Andrew Vaughn is doing something, and then you look at their averages and it's still not great. Like, Benintendi was having a great day recently and you look at what's changed, and it's just 'well, now he's batting .190 as opposed to batting .160'. Pham actually hitting competently over a long period time is a change of pace for this team.

And yet. Like usual, there's the chance that Pham will be dealt midyear, because that's what tends to happen with him. He burns places out quickly, and they deal him. And so you're not sure if he's actually gonna ride out the 2024 White Sox experience to the end or if he's actually gonna get to play for a competitor again. And even still, will he contribute that much? He only did so much for the D-Backs last year, even if he was an excellent postseason performer. Maybe that'll boost his appeal?

The White Sox are a slight bit better than they were, but that's really as much as they're gonna get. And so they need to figure out victories that will be more important than just 'well Tommy Pham's not hitting .200 like the rest of the team'.

Coming Tomorrow- Well, we can cross off another market on the list of cities that aren't New York that this guy can pitch well in. 

Wild Card Series' Day 2: Well, That Was Easy

 

I mean, I kinda assumed one of these Wild Card series' would go all three, but damn. Two days of games and we're out. Alright then. Makes it a lot easier.

I think the MLB guys knew that the Rangers-Rays series would have the most obvious outcome, which is why they played 'em so early. The Rangers came within inches of a division title, as did the Rays, but of the two teams that petered off after the first half, the Rangers still felt the most like a contender. Meanwhile, the Rays' starting pitching paled in comparison to the Rangers', and just putting up Nate Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery, ironically two ex-Yankees, was enough to silence the Rays for good. The biggest takeaway from this wild card series was Evan Carter, the rookie who homered his way into legitimacy among Rangers fans, and made himself just another big part of the team's future. The Rangers may not meet with their sworn enemies immediately, but I see this Rangers-Orioles series being tough, potentially going all 5 games, and taking the most out of both teams. Honestly? The Rangers might be able to win this one, if the pitching stays as solid on their end.

The Twins winning rights two MLB wrongs. One is the obvious, giving them a series win for the first time in two decades. The other has been bugging me for years: the last time a central divisional team won a playoff series was 2019, and it was those stinking Cardinals. All of the 2020, 2021 and 2022 campaigns went without a single playoff series win by any of the ten teams from the central divisions. The 2019 Twins, 2020-21 White Sox, 2022 Guardians, and LITERALLY ALL FOUR CENTRAL TEAMS THAT MADE THE 2020 PLAYOFFS, could not advance. So having the Twins finally break that streak felt really good. 

It's also cool that somebody like Willi Castro got to play a big part in this win. The Twins have gotten material out of their stars, but they've let Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, Bailey Ober and Edouard Julien have their moments as well. This is a very fun Twins team, and them advancing was honestly a foregone conclusion after their September. I just hope they have enough to take down Houston. Could you IMAGINE an ALCS year for Minnesota? Wouldn't that be awesome??

The Diamondbacks taking their Wild Card series was one I sort of saw coming, even if I still figured the Brewers could sneak up when they least expected it. But somehow the Arizona bullpen shut these guys out in later innings, and the D-Backs lineup kept raining down on this once-strong Milwaukee team. Evan Longoria had the big moment last night, and tonight Tommy Pham brought in an RBI and cemented his place on this team. Pham's had a troubled few years, but I think he's evaded some of his rotten luck and is back to doing things right. 

The D-Backs will need a lot more of this luck to evade the Dodgers, who, like usual, seek to claim an easy playoff spot. I see a slight chance of an upset, but the D-Backs will have to work for it.

And, once again, we have the hometown team. I was a little nervous when Thomson put up Nola for this game, as he's only briefly shown true greatness this year. I shouldn't have worried. Nola went 7 strong without allowing any runs, and worked some true postseason magic while Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner and Stott made swiss cheese of the Marlins' pitching. Braxton Garrett getting lit up I could have guessed, but the bullpen as well? Andrew Nardi, who's been excellent this year? This team really is legit. 

The Phillies will need to hope lightning strikes twice against Atlanta. Miami was very much the easy part; the Braves have one of the most ferocious offenses in the majors, and while there is the factor of lessening momentum, which did cloud their September, the Braves still could be trouble. I could see this series going either way. I just want to believe the Phillies can make this happen. The stars look like they're aligning. They just need to keep fighting.

And as for the fallen:

The 2023 Rays team were...a Tampa Bay Rays team. They're all the same to me at this point. They all do the same things, use the same kinds of players, have the same issues. This year's had a ton more pitching injuries and the single most unfortunate thing to come out about a guy they have signed for 10 years. I assume there will be players traded this offseason to offset costs. Manny Margot, I hope you haven't signed a lease in St. Pete..

The one sad part of the Twins advancing is that the Jays, who will once again end their surefire playoff run right after it's started, still can't deliver on their promises. They have the team, they have the foundation, they certainly have the pitching...they just can't get it done. And yanking Jose Berrios, thereby undoing the thread that held this game together for the Jays, was the most heartbreaking part. Had he stayed in, there's a chance they would have legged it out.

I hope next year is the year things change. Though, again, if everybody in the AL East competes, it still could be very difficult for them. 

Similarly, since 2018 the Brewers haven't gotten anything done in October either, and this team, despite a strong regular season finish, fell to a wild card team, the only division leader this year to do so in this round. Sal Frelick was one of the few people that made me think the Brewers could make it close, as he contributed to an early offensive boost before the 5th and 6th innings. 

The Brewers need to ensure that the team consistently succeeds at the plate. Cause having 3 guys that can hit isn't gonna cut it going forward. Not when the Cubs and Reds also exist.

I genuinely thought the Marlins were gonna make it a 3-game series. Out of all of them. With Josh Bell hitting as well as he was, I thought they could drum something up against the bullpen. But with no Sandy Alcantara, no Eury Perez, and the feeling that something was missing from this lineup, there was no chance for them. Aside from Bell, no other Marlins really did anything too special this series, and it saddens me, because they looked so fun during the heat of the season.

It will be tough for the Marlins to try something like this again, but not impossible, especially if everyone stays healthy. 

So now we've got our division series' matchups. Some I think I can predict, some I don't want to even try. I just know they're gonna be interesting. The absolute worst case scenario is getting a boring outcome. We do not want Astros-Dodgers again, or even honestly Astros-Braves. I wanna see something I've never seen before. Two teams that haven't been here in a while, or have NEVER been here, and can make an entertaining, enjoyable World Series experience. I just hope that isn't too much to ask. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Red Sox

 

It seems we've developed a pattern in Boston. The lineup is always going to be good. But if the pitching sucks, there's no point. So they'll be amazing one year and then the following year they'll be in last because nobody there can pitch well. And 2022 was a latter year for the Red Sox. Unfortunately, it was the wrong year for the pitching to crap out, because all the hitters that had been doing well for the Sox were on contract years. Next season, the Red Sox will not have Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, J.D. Martinez or Matt Strahm, and have the likelihood of not having Nate Eovaldi, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha or even Beantown's own Rich Hill. Yes, people like Kenley Jansen, Masataka Yoshida and the remaining contracts of Trevor Story and Rafael Devers will help a little, but...with all the faith lost in Chaim Bloom, will Red Sox fans truly care?

This was the second and last year of Enrique Hernandez' Boston contract. The first year went really well. This year, Kiké was limited to 93 games, hit .222 and still managed 45 RBIs. Hernandez' defense is still first rate, but his offense took a dive this year, which may explain why teams are still mulling over whether they want him even as the big pieces have come off the board.

2023 Prediction: I kinda think the Sox can afford to re-sign him, but I don't think they will. Someplace like St. Louis or Chicago will get him.

I keep thinking that Tanner Houck is gonna be a bigger deal than he is. In a year where I figured Houck was primed for a starting role, he started only 4 games and got 8 saves. Houck was a relief piece for this team, which will become a lot more baffling considering who's next in this post. He still managed a 3.15 ERA and 56 Ks, but only played in 32 games. Even if they're limiting his innings, Houck's still getting injured too easily, which is concerning.

2023 Prediction: I would say more saves, but Kenley Jansen is here. If Jansen were to, I dunno, not live up to expectations...Houck could get 15 saves out of it.

The Boston Red Sox' pitching was a disappointment this year. Unrelated, the team started their best reliever of 2021 and kept their best starting prospect in relief. Garrett Whitlock was best as a middle reliever last year, and I think the Sox were rewarding him by moving him to the rotation in May. In 9 starts, he went 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA. He was better suited to relief, with a 2.45 ERA in 22 appearances with 44 strikeouts and 6 saves.

2023 Prediction: By all accounts, should be relieving still, but will likely be pressed to start if there aren't enough starting options. 

At the trade deadline, while the Sox lost some big pieces, they managed to gain a few lineup pieces that other teams simply did not want. The Padres, with the addition of Josh Bell, had no use left for Eric Hosmer, and initial opportunities to include Hosmer in the Nats deal fell through. The Sox, however, were getting nothing out of Bobby Dalbec [again] and offered to take Hosmer. In 14 games with the Red Sox, Hosmer hit .244 with 11 hits and 4 RBIs, then got injured and missed September, in addition to clotheslining his case to remain a Red Sock. Hosmer and his old pal Mike Moustakas have been reunited in the free agent pool.

2023 Prediction: I think it'd be very funny if the Nats pick him up after all, but that probably won't happen. Honestly, a Royals reunion would be kinda cool. But, ultimately, people just may not sign the guy.

Tommy Pham was already in hot water for getting into fisticuffs with Joc Pederson over an incident in Mike Trout's fantasy football league, and that along with some other attitude issues led to Pham's going out of favor in Cincinnati. While Pham was a July trade piece, he only ended up in Boston. Pham still pulled decent numbers, with 24 RBIs and 6 homers in 53 games, but it wasn't wowing enough to sell teams in the first few months of free agency.

2023 Prediction: Signs with the Rockies and is rewarded for mediocre baseball.

Somehow the biggest trade deadline acquisition for the Sox was when they nabbed White Sox backup catcher Reese McGuire in exchange for Jake Diekman. McGuire somehow had the better season of the two, hitting .337 with 33 hits, 12 RBIs and 3 homers in 36 games. McGuire seems to be the favorite to catch everyday in Boston next year, and given his history of battering people, he'll fit right in.

2023 Prediction: 25 homers, less than favorable average. So Bobby Dalbec won't even be needed anymore.

Tomorrow, a few intriguing pieces of an intriguing Reds team.