Well, Never Mind About the Jeffers Thing, I Guess

 

This trade deadline season's been nauseating. Like 19 teams are at .500 and each day they flip flop between buying and selling, and the news media cannot keep up. And everything's being taken back as well. Hunter Greene was shopped, and then all of the sudden he wasn't. Randy Arozarena was being shopped, and now he's the game winner. I think the press is beginning to figure out just how noncommittal everyone is to make deadline moves, because they spent like 10 minutes yesterday begging the Angels to trade Mike Trout to Philly, forgetting that they're rumored to do this every year and never do it. When even MLB Network is going 'EVEN WE WANT THIS', you know something's up.

The Twins were looking like sellers all season, on account of...being the Twins and beginning the season gutted, and now they're building up enough to start buying, dealing for A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer. So...the whole post I had last week about how the Twins were just fooling no one waiting to deal Ryan Jeffers? Yeah, that's aged badly. Cause they're not dealing Ryan Jeffers. Or Byron Buxton. Or Joe Ryan. Despite the fact that they are AT .500 and probably SHOULD deal...they likely won't. So goodbye to that pipe dream of a better catcher in New York.

However...the Yankees appeared to have moved onto a new candidate. This one from a team that will no doubt be selling still, despite holding onto Hunter Greene. The Cincinnati Reds. They're shopping Tyler Stephenson. And that might be who the Yankees end up getting. That's...I mean, I'd have been better off with Jeffers, but I guess there's some upsides.

Stephenson has always been a decent catcher with the occasional power burst who just can't seem to stay lucky. He was a sharp young piece as the Reds developed their core, but injuries, inefficiency and rough stretches have prevented him from becoming a truly transcendent catching piece. April and May he was underwhelming, but in June he hit .288 and in July he hit .339, with 21 hits. The power numbers have been kind of blah though, he only has 8 homers and 30 RBIs, and while it's great that he's more well-rounded, the Yankees wouldn't be getting him to just be an okay contact piece. They need a guy who can do what Austin Wells isn't doing, which is consistently make an impact. Stephenson is good, but he's not GREAT. And if we get him and he does the same thing Wells has been doing, that won't be a very good time.

Aside from Stephenson, the Reds really don't have a ton else to unload. J.J. Bleday could get nibbles but he's down from where he was in May. Maybe Brady Singer? Maybe Emilio Pagan or Tejay Antone? They really don't have a ton to work with right now, and Spencer Steer, who would have been a great deadline piece, is down for the next week or so, so he'll miss the cutoff. 

At the very least, the Reds have a serious rookie of the year candidate, Sal Stewart, a serious Cy Young candidate, Chase Burns, and a serious-ish MVP candidate, Elly de la Cruz. Those guys aren't going anywhere. Stewart and Burns look like foundational guys for this team, and they could help them get over the fact that this era of the rebuild has not worked. Which is the fault of Friedl, Steer, McLain and Stephenson for not being superstars when they looked like they were about to take off. The Reds can still be good eventually. It's unfortunately not gonna happen with this regime, at least not fully. But the thing about Terry Francona is an organization is never completely out while he's running it.

Coming Tomorrow- A first baseman who is probably keeping his job, but at this rate who knows?

Blink And You'll Miss It

 

Maybe it's me but the rebuilds are lasting so much less time before being dismantled these days. The Reds started bringing up their core around 2023 and are now shopping Hunter Greene and Tyler Stephenson. The Tigers prepped for an onslaught around 2023/2024, and now are dealing Skubal most likely. The Jays are looking to deal many people associated with the mid-decade run. And the Royals...after the callups of Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, Massey and Caglianone inferred that something big was on the horizon...are in last, and without a real shot. Not that the dream is fully over, but...Witt may not be a perennial playoff hero for a bit.

The current status of this Royals team is....dire. Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans and Carlos Estevez are all hurt. So...what is the point, really? Knowing that Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha will likely be dealt, Jac Caglianone is one of the few reasons to go to games right now, and he's only hitting .254 with 40 RBIs and a team-leading 17 homers. Beyond him...eesh. Carter Jensen's doing pretty well but only hitting .235. Salvador Perez is now good for homers and nothing else. Isaac Collins is *fine*. Michael Massey's having an improved, healthy year, hitting .266 with 36 RBIs, but it's not enough to rest the team on. Nick Loftin and Tyler Tolbert are playing amusing fill-in roles but aren't much more, despite Tolbert's .866 OPS as a bench piece. Caglianone, Jensen and Luinder Avila are the only people here under 25, and the reinforcements that have come in are all like 28 or so. Which doesn't bode well for next year.

We're really at the point where the bizarre stuff can wander out and onto the big league club. Randy Dobnak, former Twins hero and rideshare driver, is back in the bigs after years of minor league work, and his last start was a 7-inning scoreless 4-hit affair against his old team. I have no idea how Dobnak's gotten his stuff together, but I'm honestly thrilled for him. If Topps had any justice he'd be an Update Series inclusion, but you have to make your mark around May for that apparently. We're probably gonna get Ryan Bergert back up if starters get traded, that'll at least be interesting. Career Royals minor leaguer John Rave is also getting starting opportunities, in the Kyle Isbel role which is very fitting. And Starling Marte is still employed by an MLB team, despite his power numbers having completely dissipated. 

People will be dealt, even though it won't be anything huge [cause they're all hurt]. And it's gonna lead this team to a really odd place. They could still go for it next year, they still have Witt and Garcia...but they don't have enough built around them to really warrant it. They could sign free agents...I guess? If they really wanted to. I'd hate to waste a sure thing like Bobby Witt. But...will it be worth it if the infrastructure just wasn't worth it?

Coming Tonight: Alright, Jeffers might be staying where he is so...ANOTHER catcher who's being linked to the Yankees. 

How Did This Get Cade?

 

Well, the Nats got what they wanted. This is a team where C.J. Abrams, James Wood, Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia, Cade Cavalli, Dylan Crews and Jacob Young are all playing crucial roles. There's still no certainty that it'll last longer than next week, but it's happening.

Wood and Abrams are genuinely two of the best hitters in baseball, and I couldn't be more here for it. Wood has a .949 OPS, which leads the league, plus 30 home runs and 72 RBIs. No more 'good for the Nats', this is good for the whole league. Same with Abrams, who's only continued his spectacular Washington run, hitting .289 with a league-leading 84 RBIs [well it WAS league-leading before Sal Stewart went on a tear], plus 28 home runs and 19 steals. The Nats might trade Abrams, and they'd do so during his best season to date, where he's at his peak [at least to date] and has the most value. If the Nats feel like they will continue to have value with him, they might hold back, but considering that Foster Griffin is on the table, Abrams might still be leaving. 

And then look at Cade Cavalli. Missed a ton of time with injuries, returned valiantly last year with a comeback performance, and here he's doing what he should have been doing all along, with a 3.50 ERA, an 8-4 record and 130 Ks. Standard staff ace performance through 23 starts, meaning if Griffin gets dealt, which is still possible, they won't lose much of their footing as they probably aren't dealing Cavalli. Though I really wish some of the rotation depth that was teased years ago [whatever happened to D.J. Herz??] comes true going forward, because it is still DIRE. Carson Palmquist and Miles Mikolas are getting starts, it's not pretty at all. 

What kept the Nats going this year, and what will potentially save them from dealing too much of their core, is their offense, which will only get stronger as Crews and House develop, and with the eventual promotion [maybe next year] of Eli Willits. Even at a noncompetitive form, the Nats have three solid home run hitters, not to mention triples machine Daylen Lile and power-hitter-in-training Dylan Crews. I think that this can still develop with or without Abrams, and the existence of Eli Willits leads me to believe that Abrams is gonna walk at some point anyhow. 

Whatever happens, the Nats are still relatively close to where they should be. They have an identity, they have a future, and they have James Wood. They'll be alright.

Coming Tomorrow- An infielder who was supposed to be a part of something big a few years ago and is now...in last, supposedly on the other end of it. 

The Canada to Philly Pipeline??

 

Here is a shortlist of players that the Philadelphia Phillies have discussed with the Toronto Blue Jays. Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, Jeff Hoffman, Shane Bieber, George Springer. Any of those guys would definitely be the jolt that Philly needs to finish the season. I'm not sure how many will end up being dealt, and how many of our guys will be affected [is this where Painter goes? Is this where Rincones goes?], but it's certainly promising.

Let's be clear, the Jays are responsible for one of the most important pickups in Philadelphia Phillies history, the Roy Halladay trade of 2010, where two inconsequential Phils prospects [and also Travis d'Arnaud] were sent to Toronto and the Phils got a legend who looked good in red. Other than that, the Phils and Jays have never really been on opposing sides of the aisle around this point. And yet here, the Phillies need help, the Jays aren't competing, so here we are.

So let's talk about why Daulton Varsho would be a great fit for the Phillies. Let's start with the obvious. Daulton Varsho, if he lands in Philly, would conclude a very special MLB story. Gary Varsho played for the Phillies in 1995, alongside Darren Daulton, stopped playing after the season, then nine months later his son was born, and he would be given the name Daulton after Gary's former teammate. And now there's a possibility that Daulton Varsho could be playing in Philadelphia, where his story essentially began thirty years ago. 

Plus, Varsho's just a handy guy to have around. Terrific center fielder, great power bat, great clutch hitter, very multi-faceted, thrives in October. Last year in the playoffs he was very helpful, and had 3 homers and 10 RBIs in 18 games. I think he'd do well in Philly. I also think Gausman or Springer or Bieber would probably also do well in Philly but Varsho especially. Jeff Hoffman in Philly though....hmm, I don't even know what that would look like...

If the Jays drop the hammer, they still have enough left to work with going forward. Brandon Valenzuela might be a stronger bet than Alejandro Kirk behind the plate, Trey Yesavage and Dylan Cease can certainly line a great rotation, Okamoto will still be around for a bit, and the team's still centered around Vlad for the foreseeable future. They are still fundamentally a good team, and have enough to still compete for a bit. The lightning that made them a threat last year could not strike twice, and the team could not hold up for long enough to really go for it. So here we are. 

If the Jays deal people to Philly, I hope they continue their strong work and deliver something great. I'd even be alright with Springer in Phils colors. It'd be weird rooting FOR Springer for once, after all this time rooting against him, but I'm open to the idea. 

Coming Tonight: How weird is it that after he got mad at Willson Contreras his season only improved?

Devers After

 

Well, Rafael Devers got what he wanted. He's on the way for another 30-homer season, potentially 100 RBI season, playing where he wants, being an integral part of the team, and it's not even gonna matter even remotely in the grand scheme of this season. As his old team is putting together a potential playoff roster.

I mean, look...a year later, Devers is still justified in wanting out of Boston. The organization that made him a star was sidelining him for a 1-year rental and telling him where to play, then actively shopping him to make room only to pawn virtually everyone they got for him for parts. I wouldn't want to play for the Sox either if I was him. But while he's arguably treated better in San Francisco, this Giants team isn't going anywhere, even with people like Luis Arraez, Willy Adames, Heliot Ramos and Jung-Hoo Lee. The answers ate there, the development is there, and it's not moving. Even Devers himself took far too long to get going and only now, that the season is lost, is doing everything that he can to get back on course. He now leads the team in homers, which is easy to do when Daniel Susac, Luis Arraez and Grant McCray take up crucial roster spaces. The power game isn't there, the contact game is barely there despite TWO .300 hitters, and every great season seems to stop right when it's getting going. Ramos, Susac, Chapman, Lee and now Schmitt have all gotten hurt right when they were hitting their peak. It feels cursed.

Trevor McDonald going down the same week as Casey Schmitt feels like the real death nell. Yes, it means Carson Whisenhunt can start games, and he's been doing pretty alright for himself, but it's now down to Tyler Mahle, healthy but still a 5 ERA guy, Landon Roupp and his unabashed homophobia, Christian Koss erasing the good vibes of last season, and a very underwhelming bullpen to pick up the slack. It's great that Heliot Ramos is back and hitting, he's got 9 home runs and 34 RBIs in 70 games, but that injury took the wind out of this team's sails. Same with Jung-Hoo Lee, who's had excellent stretches but about as many mediocre ones. Even if they let Arraez or Ray go at the deadline, can this team build something so that 2027 doesn't look like this? Can Drew Gilbert finally take off? Is Devers gonna keep being this power backbone?

I think ultimately I just expected more from this team, just from how surprisingly streaky they could be, and how open the middle of the division was. But they just don't have depth right now, and Logan Webb giving more peak starts still isn't enough on its own. And so here we are, another Giants season, another purely inconsequential venture into Buster Posey's business flaws. Least he's getting a plaque next year.

Coming Tomorrow- A fun outfield bat who was just linked in trade rumors to one of my teams.

A Minus

 

[Unrelated opening note: I keep mentally referring to Tyler Soderstrom as 'Tyler Sodeepop' every time I hear about him. That can't be good for his legitimacy.]

The way the Athletics have run out of steam this season has been frankly insulting. On June 19th they were a .500 team, mostly in second place, powering through some rough stretches but staying on target and keeping in the race. Then they go on a truly appalling losing stretch, they lose Nick Kurtz, get him back but not his power bat, and now they're so far under .500 that they're not even a competitor anymore. It's looking like some people might be dealt, and if it wasn't for the injury, Shea Langeliers would definitely be one of them. Just very, very sad, as if they'd kept their stuff together they might have had a shot.

Once again, Tyler Soderstrom, who's somehow only 24, has cemented himself as a very crucial lineup piece, with an .821 OPS, 17 homers and 50 RBIs. Not quite the power season he was having last year around this time, as his hot start got him to his first 25 homer year, but potentially evenly-displaced enough to get past that mark by October. Aside from Kurtz, Soderstrom might be the most accurate pure hitter on the A's this year, and with both Rooker and Langeliers out for a while, and Gelof and Kuroda-Grauer down for a little while [JKG had one of the single most unfortunate MLB injuries I've seen in a while, and in the midst of a stretch where he was hitting .400 no less], a lot more is riding on him. He might be one of the few people left on this team who hasn't gotten hurt or gone cold for a substantial percentage of the season. And it's weird that we're down to him. Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler were supposed to mean so much more to this team, but they're both having down years, with Wilson being much less accurate than his rookie campaign, and Butler only hitting .199 with 5 homers. We've seen him take off in the second half before, so I'm not terribly worried, but this still isn't great, especially for a very big piece of this team. 

I guess on the bright side I feel better about the long term development of this team's pitching than before. The Springs and Severino gambits did not work. Not inevitable but...yeah, I figured there was a chance. J.T. Ginn getting more starts was a very good thing, he could be the ace next year, he had a 3.50 ERA and 100 Ks in 22 appearances. Gage Jump is also very much MLB-ready, and has a 4 ERA and 68 Ks in 12 starts. Given a fuller season he should be on his way. Beyond that, I'm not sure though. Lopez and Morales just aren't getting it done this year. Logically Joey Estes should get another shot but who knows if he'll be any better. It's still two young, controllable arms more than I would have credited them for going into the season.

Not much else for the A's to do at this point but just ride it out and prep for 2027. Two more months of grueling play and missed opportunities, hopefully they're at least a slight upgrade from the last two.

Coming Tonight: One of the most effective power hitters in baseball. In case you were worried he'd have nothing to say this year. 

Worth the Gamble?

 

I would say more than most other seasons, this particular deadline week is inundated with teams who could either be a buyer or a seller. Because the middle of the pack this year seems to dominate the conversation, only a few teams really are in position to feasibly buy or sell, and even so, the top and bottom teams might not even be the most crucial players. I don't think the Dodgers are going to do much this deadline season. People keep linking them to Skubal, but that might just be in free agency. Similarly, I don't think the Rockies will be as picked at as people seem to think. I think the middle teams have the most to gain...but too many of them are still noncommittal on whether or not it's worth it to make a run this year.

Genuinely, like half the league is in this conundrum right now. The Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Nationals, Astros, Padres, D-Backs, Twins, Tigers and Cardinals are all unsure of the direction of the next two months. That's 11 teams. That's...a lot. All still undecided, all still up in the air. 

The Cardinals have been one of the most fascinating teams of this season, because on a number of levels they have cracked what's baffled them to this point. J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker have lived up to expectations and are leading this team into their next era. Alec Burleson's having an extremely effective year as an all-around hitter. The rotation, despite being mostly anonymous, is holding things together, with Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante all working on nice seasons. Defensively this team has its stuff together on a number of levels. However...there isn't terribly much to this team, still. Blaze Jordan was brought in to be the surefire hit at third that Nolan Gorman wasn't, and he's sort of doing a lot of the same things. There's still not much bench depth, there's barely contact infrastructure [the team's hitting .239, and the bullpen is mostly perfunctory really, barring a star turn from Riley O'Brien. This is a very okay team with a bunch of very good pieces.

Since the All-Star break, the Cardinals have come back to earth a great deal, with a 3-9 record, bringing them below .500 and to fourth place again. With the Cubs in town, who have a ton more momentum currently, the Cardinals aren't looking like they'd be wise in buying at this rate. But that's never stopped them before. On many occasions the Cardinals have taken on smaller pieces and have opted to be a spoiler in case a wild card spot surfaces, and that mentality got them Jordan Montgomery at the deadline a few years ago. They're also one of those teams that never thinks they're out of it until it's impossible to think otherwise. They may still buy, as a way of using the additions as a springboard to make an okay team great, which is...not how I think trade deadline acquisitions should work, they should supplant great teams, not make teams competitors singlehandedly. 

Who knows, the Cardinals could go for Skubal or Volpe or somebody huge. Or, they could decide to unload some small stuff and focus on 2027, as they should do. But we've established that the Cardinals aren't very good at doing what I want them to.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the few people still trying on a team that's basically given up.