Bird Watching

 

Something that's very surprising about the Colorado Rockies, even as they continue to tank in their quest for a twentieth win before July 1st, is that as awful as both their starting pitching and hitting is...the bullpen's honestly pretty good. The majority of top of the leaderboard is just relievers right now. Hunter Goodman, Ryan McMahon, Jordan Beck and some relievers. And that may be the reason the Rockies might not be a lock for the 'worst ever' status anymore, because as bad as they are, for like 3 or 4 innings per game they're not bleeding as badly.

Like, my guess is the Rockies' ASG nod will be Jake Bird this year, because statistically he's the best player on the team. Highest WAR, 2nd-lowest ERA--Bird may be the only person in Denver who's actually doing his job correctly. In 47 innings, Bird has a 2.68 ERA, 57 Ks [third-most on the Rockies], and a 1.8 WAR. This would be a good relief season for, like, the Dodgers. For anybody. Bird, like Daniel Bard and Carlos Estevez before him, has taken the thankless job of relieving games in Denver and actually succeeded at it. Victor Vodnik is also having a really nice year, with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.225 WHIP. Vodnik, unlike Bird, is a young, homegrown piece that the Rockies can really develop. Zach Agnos is like that too, though Agnos has fallen off a bit since his strong April. 

And even guys who got a roster spot over shoveling shit in Durham or something are actually helping this team. Jimmy Herget, who's played everywhere, has a 3.02 ERA in 41.2 innings. Seth Halvorsen seems to be the go-to guy for the ninth inning, and while 6 saves is nothing to scratch at, it's more than anybody has for the White Sox. It's a decent enough unit that can mop up the messes made by guys like Kyle Freeland, Carson Palmquist and Antonio Senzatela. My big takeaway is that, god forbid if the bullpen was really a nightmare, the Rockies would have brought up Jefry Yan by now. Jefry Yan was the relief guy they had in Spring Training who'd do these big leaps when he got an out, and was this ridiculously wild character that just couldn't make the team on account of his inconsistency. Yan, for the record, currently has a 6 ERA in Albuquerque. But you know that if the Rocks were dying and needed to fill seats, they'd bring him up. 

That should say something. As bad as the Rockies are, they have yet to resort to gimmicks.

Anyhow, the rest of the team is miserable, as you'd expect. Beck, Goodman and Moniak are hitting but it's not pretty. Tovar's hurt and Ryan Ritter is doing his best filling SS. I reckon Zac Veen will get another shot once the herd is thinned in a month or so, and hopefully it'll go a little better. They play the Astros two more excruciating games, and then Rox-White Sox, the series of the year, is this weekend. Can't you feel the excitement??

Coming Tomorrow- One of the guys whose return has fueled a surprise resurgence in Baltimore.

Where It Kurtz

 

Even if the A's don't finish above .500 this year, they will still finish the year without completely fading into the background. There are things this team has been doing to command attention all season. Tyler Soderstrom had his home run lead in April. Jacob Wilson is parlaying his amazing rookie year into an ASG appearance. Toronto-born Denzel Clarke has been leading the season in unforgettable outfield grabs, and may continue this for a while. And now you have Nick Kurtz, with 12 homers in 45 games. Remember, Soderstrom, who was piling up homers before, has 14 in 85 games. 

The home run guys in Sacramento...they're multiplying. 

We already had Brent Rooker, who thankfully started getting hot this month, he's at 17 homers and 44 RBIs. Soderstrom followed behind, and looks to be a similarly great power bat. Kurtz has been very hot as of late, homered Saturday against the Yanks and even snuck in a run yesterday during the rout. Kurtz isn't special at 1st, and isn't great on the base paths, but he's 22 years old and can already hit MLB pitching. Yet ironically Max Muncy, but not that one, is 22 and has been up for a similar amount of time and isn't hitting at all, much like past infield phenom Kevin Smith, also not that one nor that one. 

Even as the A's pray the Vegas stadium goes off without a hitch and suffers through playing in a minor league stadium [Severino's thoughts on this were well reported, and come off as a lot funnier now that he's gotten lit up in Yankee Stadium as well], they are still building a core. If they weren't I'd be worried, I mean this isn't the Pirates after all. But Kurtz has joined pieces like Wilson, Soderstrom, Rooker, Lawrence Butler and Mason Miller as foundational pieces for what could be an eventual run. They've got a ways to go in terms of filling things out, and there's still a few pieces [Clarke, Max Schuemann, Zach Gelof] where I'm not sure if they're starter pieces or long haul pieces, but you can see a ballclub here, for once.

The starting pitching still worries me, though, because I don't see as many long term answers there. Severino, Springs, Sears and Lopez can fill innings for now, but basically every homegrown young fireballer has gotten injured immediately. It happened to Joe Boyle, it happened to Gunnar Hoglund, I assume it's happened to Joey Estes. Juggling 32 year olds is not gonna be the way forward, they need a guy they can build a rotation around. And he really hasn't arrived yet, even if J.P. Sears is fundamentally the closest they've gotten.

The A's are a better team now than they've been since the exodus, and are close to getting out of punchline status, but they're maybe a few more trusted pieces away from really getting there. Once they don't have to trot out Luis Urias and Gio Urshela every game I'll be a little more excited.

Coming Tonight: The most likely Colorado Rockie to make the All-Star team.

30 Runs Later

 

On paper, Pirates-Mets should have been cut and dry. The Mets have more pieces, more momentum, more goodwill, and even if they've fallen out of 1st they're still hanging into the race. The Pirates have Paul Skenes and that's about it. So many of their best players just aren't hitting this year. They've been trying to build something and they haven't really gotten anywhere. And as an added bonus for the Mets, they didn't even have to play Skenes during this season. It should have been simple.

Instead, the Pirates scored 30 points, limited the Mets to four, and asserted absolute dominance over a genuinely good Mets team. It is...genuinely very funny. I think, because the Marlins are getting hot, people will try and pitch this as 'the Pirates are catching fire', but I think it was just a case of circumstances lining up. The Mets started two lower-tier pieces [Paul Blackburn and the just-promoted Frankie Montas], couldn't muster anything from their starters and thus got trounced. 

Yet, at the same time, this series was also a showcase of what the Pirates can be when they choose to line up the moments where they're good at baseball. Bryan Reynolds. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham and Mitch Keller all decided to come together over the course of this series and provide multiple great moments. Pham had a bunch of RBIs. Cruz had a two-homer game today. Hayes had a big day yesterday. Reynolds has slowly been gaining ground at the plate. Keller actually won a game for the first time since March. This is what the Pirates could be if they weren't so preoccupied with settling. Cause you're seeing even some younger players like Henry Davis and Mike Burrows, who are flirting with actually performing well but not ready to commit yet. 

In the absence of truly overpowering seasons, a lot of simply good seasons are setting the tone in Pittsburgh. Bailey Falter isn't the showiest starter out there, and the Phils traded him for this very reason, but with the Pirates he's become a great 'room tone' pitcher. Falter is someone who just chugs along without striking too many people out or overexerting himself too much. He just gets the job done. Right now he's 6-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.218 WHIP. For this team, that's pretty great. He's no Skenes, but Skenes is 4-7. Falter seems to be the guy the Pirates' offense shows up most often behind, and it's given him a season he can be proud of. 

It also helps that the Pirates' bullpen is surprisingly really good. A lot was made of David Bednar's rough start but he's come back around, with a 2.83 ERA and now 11 saves. Dennis Santana and his 1.50 ERA have made a real difference with this team, and I can almost undeniably say that the Pirates are gonna miss him when he's unceremoniously traded to Atlanta in a month. Caleb Ferguson, Chase Shugart, Isaac Mattson, they've all been really nice in relief. Plus they just got Genesis Cabrera, and hopefully he becomes a nice guy for them. Hell, even rookie Braxton Ashcraft seems to be a keeper.

If anything, this weekend showed that even amidst the torture of the Nutting regime, there are still signs of life, and there are still moments where this team can come together. Just not enough of them. Enough to ensure they won't be the worst team in the league, but not enough to actually start anything.

Coming Tomorrow- A rookie power bat who, to his credit, did some damage against my team this weekend.

What on the White Sox is ASG-Worthy??

 

Okay, so...the All-Star Game's coming up in a few weeks. Voting for the starters is wrapping up this week. Then Boone and Roberts go about deciding the rest of the rosters. In that comes the tricky business of deciding at least one nominee from each team, even the crappier ones. For some, it's easier than others: I think the nominee for Pittsburgh is a done deal, and I could *guess* who'd get picked from Colorado but it wouldn't exactly sell merch. But this is how the ASG works, every team is accounted for, and every team has good players on them worthy of merit.

But...how do you reward a team like the White Sox? Who on this team should be remembered for anything? Last year at least they had Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, now they have a lot of young no-names, a few veterans who aren't hitting, and some fringe guys doing their thing. Who do you recognize from that? Who do you put next to people like Bobby Witt Jr., Tarik Skubal and Cal Raleigh? 

Well...I have some ideas. They're not all good ideas, but they're ideas. So let's see

-Miguel Vargas. Statistically, Vargas is the White Sox's best player. Yes, he's only hitting .234, but he's got 10 homers and 34 RBIs. In May he hit .263 with 7 homers and 17 RBIs. He's accurate, he doesn't strike out much, he's good at contact and he's a young, hip infielder the fanbase can hopefully get around. My issue with Vargas is that there really isn't much to him. Like, what can you say about those stats? Oh great, he's...producing but not advancing, and if he was still in LA he'd be benched for this. I think logically Vargas has the best chance of getting a nod, but I don't think on its own these stats would be ASG-worthy. Similarly,

-Chase Meidroth. Big rookie contact guy. Steals bases, plays great 2nd base, hitting .263. It's good for this team, but considering that Jacob Wilson will be on the ASG team, it doesn't make sense. If you're putting up a rookie, they've gotta be really burning the league down, and Jacob Wilson is doing that as a contact bat. Comparatively Meidroth has 56 hits in 58 games, which is good but not the same. 

-Shane Smith. He set some records early, had some great starts, and the White Sox are coming off a season with a true rotation standout. Smith has started 15 games, has a 3.38 ERA, 68 Ks and a 1.272 WHIP. Those are good numbers. They maaay be enough to sneak him into an SP spot, but considering how contentious the starting positions are for this roster, and considering that there's a lot of great pitchers [Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, Bryan Woo, Chris Bassitt] who aren't even guaranteed a spot right now, I don't know how likely it is that they can justify Smith over the majority of them. 

-Adrian Houser. Statistically, Houser is the best pitcher on the White Sox. He's also only been there for 6 starts. That doing pretty well for 6 starts gets you a 1.5 WHIP and a ride to second on the leaderboard says more about the White Sox than Houser. And yes, he's looked good, with a 2.27 ERA in that time, but that's a very small sample size for ASG berth. Paul Skenes had more starts before July last year. 

-Steven Wilson. Steven Wilson is the guy I am honestly thinking SHOULD get the nod for the White Sox, and I know this is a contentious point because all of you are going 'who??' Steven Wilson is....well, Steven Wilson is a progressive rock musician known for his music with the band Porcupine Tree, but Steven Wilson the PITCHER is a former Padres reliever netted in the Dylan Cease deal. Right now, Wilson is one of the best players on the White Sox because he's been steady in the face of mess. He has a 1.73 ERA, a 1.3 WAR, and 25 Ks through 26 innings. Nothing on this team has been steady, yet Steven Wilson has been steady. And so I think it should be him. There is the issue of nobody having heard of him, but...people still haven't heard of Evan Meek, Bryan LaHair or Kevin Correia, so that's not much of a serve.

Maybe it's none of them. Maybe they go with Luis Robert or Andrew Benintendi regardless of statistical evidence suggesting the contrary. Who knows? I certainly don't. But whoever gets it will likely remember every second of the experience, because who knows if it'll ever happen again.

Coming Tonight: Got booted out of Philly for a guy who barely lasted, and has provided a surprising amount of security since arriving in his new city.

Land of Too Many Backup Plans

 

I think the Marlins have a right to be frustrated. The thing that was supposed to be the factor that thrust them back into the race, that being Sandy Alcantara, hasn't done what it's supposed to. The last year and a half has been leading up to the return of Alcantara, a Marlins hero to this point, and he just hasn't been the same. He currently has a 6.98 ERA, is 4-8, and just today melted down against the D-Backs, which would have been a lot worse of a look had the Marlins not come back and won it. It's confusing everyone, it's confusing the Marlins, it's confusing all the people that were gonna trade for Alcantara, it's confusing Alcantara. 

And while the Marlins weren't quite expected to lead the East, it's put them at even more of a disadvantage. Cause they don't have peak Alcantara, they haven't gotten peak Eury Perez, they lost Griffin Conine right when he was about to win a starting spot, and they're without Ryan Weathers for even more time. And, to add insult to injury, they just lost Max Meyer. The plan is going out the window, and we're getting to the point where they could be just trying shit out and hoping it works. Yet...as all this is happening, the Marlins are...on a winning streak. They've won their last 6 games, and 7 out of their last 8. Something, even if it is, like...brief...is happening.

The most important part of the Marlins' season so far is actually forming a solid lineup of people who will likely be sticking around for a while. Going into this season it was pretty much just Jesus Sanchez, but now Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez have all felt like everyday guys for this team. Hicks came out of practically nowhere, took advantage of an early injury from Nick Fortes and has made himself a more feasible catching option, hitting .279 with 4 homers and 26 RBIs. Ramirez has been a much needed power bat, with 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 56 games; he and Stowers have upped the power numbers by a ton for this team. Myers is a .300 hitter with great speed; granted, he's 29, and has taken forever to stay put in the majors, but he can continue at this pace and give the Marlins something. Then the Marlins bring up Heriberto Hernandez, another .300-hitting outfielder, and you're seeing the pieces of a really fun, varied team begin to form. Eventually this team will find a perennial first baseman, as neither Eric Wagaman nor Matt Mervis are the answer, but they've got a surprising amount pinned down.

And while the rotation has suffered with the number of holes thus far, you're still seeing some people who know what they're doing. Edward Cabrera is the most crucial one of these. The thing you expect from Cabrera at this point is at least a month or so of injury, and at least a month or so of bad pitching, and then some sweet spot that makes it all worth it. We're currently in that. He currently leads the team in strikeouts with 69, has a 3.78 ERA, and has been excellent all June. Janson Junk is like that too, he went from being a longman to starting, and has been responsible for some really dominant outings in between the occasional shellacking. There are still guys who are solely there to eat innings, Cal Quantrill chief among them, but you're seeing signs of life. And if you're getting offense, sometimes that can win games.

The Marlins' surprise surge has put them ahead of the Nats in the standings. They may have more to them than we all previously thought, and that could lead to something cool eventually.

Coming Tomorrow- The Dodgers flipped him for a 2nd baseman and two relievers that got them a ring. So the fact that he's done anything for the guys they dealt him to is a big deal. 

Facing the Facts

 

Alright. With this much having been elapsed, and with this much still working, I can admit that the Rays are, in fact, a good team. They're good enough that they're honestly commanding the AL East as the Yankees have slowed down. I'm just mad that they're doing it in the cheapest way possible. 

It is undeniable that the Rays have built a new young core, and are moving far ahead with it. Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero are the powering force behind this team, both are ready and both are really fantastic. Caminero has 20 homers and 51 RBIs, and might be headed to the All-Star Game. Aranda's hitting .329 with 8 homers and 41 RBIs. And for them to be able to do this while Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe are all A.) still on this team and B.) still capable of producing consistently is just a testament to why the Rays shouldn't rush to trade people instead of paying them. A core has appeared, and even if there is gonna be an uncomfortable conversation in regards to what happens after this season, it's getting them deep into the race for the division.

[It occurs to me now, by the way, how much the Rays resembles a college team, because of how inevitable the departures feel, and how it all seems to go in like 4 year cycles more often than anything.]

And somehow, after years of scrounging and forcing openers, the Rays have a solid rotation of five guys who've stayed healthy and made all their starts. Ryan Pepiot has blossomed into a really strong pitcher, he's got a 3.04 ERA and 91 Ks. Shane Baz is 8-3 with 86 Ks and a 4.37 ERA. Drew Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA. Regardless of the fact that Shane McClanahan still isn't here, and that Taj Bradley can occasionally get chased, this is a very solid pack of starters. And their failsafe guy, Joe Boyle seems to have figured his shit out as well. 

That doesn't mean the Rays don't have flaws, as...they still have too many either no-name 29-year-old rookies or name 29-year-olds hitting .220, but what works is enough to power them to 2nd, and enough to make them a serious rival for 1st. This weekend the Yankees are playing the A's, who are beatable but infuriatingly sneaky, and the Rays are playing the Orioles, who have been better but still have no pitching. I'd prefer the Yankees to stay on top, but it's wild that we're in a moment where the Rays could top them.

Coming Tonight: It's looking like the people that were supposed to do their jobs in Miami aren't really doing so, so now he's gotta step up.

When All Else Fails..

 

Ketel Marte has been on the Diamondbacks longer than anyone else, which is kind of hard to believe considering he's 31, and younger than a lot of major players for this team. He came over in 2017, in exchange for Jean Segura, blossomed into an All-Star 2nd baseman within two years, and has become a perennial MVP vote getter and league-wide hero. The acclaim for Marte is so beloved that after a White Sox fan heckled Marte during a game, the Sox not only banned the fan but immediately stood in solidarity with Marte. It's not like the Tommy Pham thing where he was being a punk, Marte plays the game right and some people just wanna be assholes. 

The amount that Marte has accumulated in this time is sneakily great. He's got a 32.4 WAR, 1199 hits, and a career .282 average, boosted by his current .313 average in the midst of another great season. Marte's thing is that he's had more 'alright' seasons than truly terrific ones, and that will ultimately keep him from definite enshrinement, but right now he's still elite.

And it's a good thing the Diamondbacks still have him, because this has been a season that has required his leadership. Several weeks ago, Corbin Burnes went down for the season. Earlier this week Corbin Carroll hit the IL. They also recently lost Gabriel Moreno, and will definitely be without Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk for a while. The team is above .500 but still in 4th in the NL West. The plan now is just to stay steady and outlast the competition, and the way to do that is continuing to provide a difference-maker even if it can't be Carroll or Burnes. Marte is one of those difference-makers, he has 15 homers and 32 RBIs. This team has a chance if more people are in that category.

At this stage, I feel like there's a case to be made that there are. The corners are both rocking excellent contact seasons: Eugenio Suarez leads the league with 67 RBIs, and his 25 homers ain't too shabby either. Josh Naylor, unsurprisingly, is still a very impressive contact hitter, he's hitting .307 with 10 homers and 53 RBIs. Geraldo Perdomo also has 53 RBIs, and I always forget how good of a hitter he can be. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., even on a weaker year, still has 41 RBIs. And you have to factor in Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson and Shelby Miller, who've stayed consistent despite the major pitching issues the team has faced. Those elements are working, and hopefully they stay strong. I think eventually Gallen will go on a tear, and I'm pretty sure Carroll will be back with a vengeance after the all-star break.

The Diamondbacks, even with everything stacked against them, still have a shot. It's still June, and they still can outhit a ton of teams. You can't completely count them out.

Coming Tonight: The Dodgers flipped him to get over their injury problem, and the guy they got for him added to it. The guy that got away has been pretty healthy though. 

Don't Get Any Big Ideas

 

In 2023, famously, the Los Angeles Angels, upon sweeping the New York Yankees midyear, suddenly decided they were ready to compete, and thus traded for tons of helpful stars, including Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. Then they...stopped winning games, and had to waive most of them. It was a classic case of overconfidence that cost a lot of people their jobs, and led to Shohei Ohtani leaving for the Dodgers.

Well...the Angels just took three from the Yankees again, including a couple where they couldn't get runs out of them. And now they're at .500, lapping the Rangers. If they don't mess this up, they could be hanging around 2nd by the end of the first half. Which would be insane, seeing as the Angels have so many pieces that simply aren't working, and so many great players [from Mike Trout to Taylor Ward to Christian Walker] who are doing good things but not consistently enough to be having great seasons.

This team has already tried so much that has outright failed. Banking on a Tim Anderson reclamation project, yeah that unsurprisingly went nowhere. Giving Yoan Moncada a try, well after a month he got hurt, like he always does. Giving Kyren Paris more playing time, well, his start was phenomenal but he truly evened out and now he's hitting below .200. Getting a healthy year from Luis Rengifo--that's a -1.3 WAR that man is working with this year. When signing Kyle Hendricks, who has a 4.83 ERA, is comparatively one of your better ideas, you know things have gone wrong.

I do admire the Angels's ability to just get rid of what isn't working. Prior to the season, the Angels did away with the 'homegrown rotation' idea cause none of them could stay healthy. And while they were right about Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning is having a rebound year in New York. Honestly, the central trio this year of Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson and Jose Soriano has been pretty great. Kikuchi has 99 Ks and a 2.79 ERA, he's just built for this division. Soriano's ERA is around 3.50 and he has 80 Ks. Anderson's a little more even but he's still a crucial workhorse. The Angels have gotten starts from five pitchers and no one else [so far], which not even the Mariners can say this year. Even if Jack Kochanowicz is bringing up the rear of the rotation, he's still making all his starts and he's still capable of great moments. They haven't needed Reid Detmers to swing over, and they haven't needed to call up Caden Dana or Sam Aldegheri for much else other than mop-up duty. 

I do kinda wish the lineup had better luck, as there's still some holes. Nolan Schanuel, at least, has gotten off to a better June, he's now hitting .274 with 6 homers and 30 RBIs. Jo Adell, regardless of a lack of dimension, still has 17 homers and 41 RBIs. Mike Trout, despite this being his most human year yet, has hit 12 homers and has 29 RBIs. And rookie Christian Moore, even if he hasn't gotten his average up yet, has 3 homers and 6 RBIs, and is already a proven Yankee killer. Even if it isn't always pretty, this team can produce, and this team can still get past tough teams. They're not a full competitor to me yet, but if they keep at this pace they could shock a lot of people.

Coming Tomorrow- I think about the fact that the Mariners didn't especially need Jean Segura and traded for him anyway, thereby costing them a 2nd baseman for life. And you know how many 2nd basemen the Mariners have corrupted since then. Frazier, Wong, Polanco. It could have been so much easier..

Sal On

 

The narrative of last year's Brewers team was that there were suddenly tons of young, rookie-to-second-year guys who were in position to succeed and capable of leading this team to glory. The narrative of this year's Brewers team is 'oh shit, there's even more!'

Already this season, we've seen rookie performers like Logan Henderson, Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, Chad Patrick, Craig Yoho and now Jacob Misiorowski coming up and joining the fun. Many of them have done extremely well. Isaac Collins has 4 homers, 19 RBIs and 8 steals, and is already in the running for Rookie of the Year. Durbin has 29 RBIs and 10 doubles in 59 games. Logan Henderson went 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, and the only reason he's not up in the majors right now is that Miz, who pitched a beaut yesterday against Pittsburgh, has only allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in 3 starts. Until someone either gets injured or pulls an Aaron Civale, Henderson will likely stay in the minors, despite his MLB success. 

That's how many good young players the Brewers have right now. Because they have Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick and Miz all in their sweet spots, they can give Jose Quintana, who's still on decent pace, some starts and continue to let Henderson develop. You also have to remember that Jefferson Quero is still hanging out in Triple-A and doesn't need to come up yet because William Contreras and Eric Haase are so good behind the plate. Hell, they just got Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox, and they haven't needed him in the majors yet because A.) he still kinda sucks, and B.) Joey Ortiz and Rhys Hoskins are better-hitting first basemen. 

The Brewers have options. Case in point: their outfield right now is Jackson Chourio, who's been on a tear recently, Sal Frelick, who's hitting .295 with 31 RBIs, and Collins, who's had an excellent rookie season. That's three young OF options who'll likely be around for a while. Frelick especially has been impressing people this season, and it's nice that he's become a fixture there after his fun come-up in 2023. Turang and Yelich are doing their usual thing, Abner Uribe's become an excellent setup option, and Trevor Megill's still holding his own at RP1. The pieces are there, and there's enough variance and depth to ensure that nothing goes exceptionally wrong.

And let's not even get into the obvious: Brandon Woodruff and Blake Perkins are still expected to return this year. So as good as the Brewers are right now, and gaining fast on the Cubs, they could be even better in a month's time. How cool is that?

Coming Tonight: Hard-hitting 1st baseman just trying to keep everyone from heading for the exits.

Waste Management

 

I understand that the Mets were following the plan that made the most sense to them. Getting Harvey, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and deGrom at the same time was very big for them. There wasn't always room to start games. Seth Lugo got his fair share, but was never a priority. Even as people left and less-than-favorable options appeared in Queens, Lugo remained a bullpen option. Then he becomes a free agent in 2023 and starts fielding offers as a starter. The Padres bite, he does well, the Royals give him a better deal, and last year he has a Cy Young caliber season. However, he is now 35. I know it's possible to have great starting careers after 30, Charlie Morton has proved this, but...that doesn't leave Lugo much time to be a truly great starter. 

The Mets had someone that could have been another sure thing for them, and they did nothing with him. And of course this year they sign Clay Holmes to start games like it's the same thing. It's not.

Lugo, so far for the Royals, has been as consistent as ever. He's got a 2.93 ERA, a 1.048 WHIP and a 2.1 WAR. The issue is he's 4-5, because the Royals aren't as good this year and haven't had a great monthlong run. And he's pitched on mediocre teams and done fine, but...he's 35. I have no idea when Lugo's gonna stop pitching this well. If you waste this season, it's just like wasting the other ones in Queens. You have somebody this good, and you're stuttering around and putting Hunter Renfroe out there and acting like everything's fine. 

And honestly, we're a point where the Royals' rotation is honestly fantastic. Kris Bubic is having his best season to date, with a 3.0 WAR, a 2.18 ERA and 96 Ks. Michael Wacha's having another excellent late-career year, with a 3.24 ERA. Noah Cameron, barring some recent starts, has been extremely consistent, with a 2.08 ERA. Lorenzen, even if his ERA is higher, has been a relatively consistent arm. But only Bubic has a positive W/L ratio. Because the bullpen is so mediocre, because the lineup has so many 'good but not excellent' guys, and because there are just so many competitors who are simply better, this team is squandering a strong, consistent rotation. 

You can see them trying to get a new strategy here, bringing up Jac Caglianone, who's yet to hit above .200 but at least is finding himself. You're getting production from Witt, Pasquantino and Perez. But there still feels like there's elements missing, and it feels like the fire that got them to an NLDS last year isn't there. Maybe things shift and they find someone's presence that fuels a run, but as it is now it's not looking good.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many really sharp young guys keeping the Brewers in the conversation.

The Ronnie Factor

 

I think the idea the Braves are trying to sell you is that this team is different without Ronald Acuna Jr. Before he came back they were listless, since his return they've been better, he could lead them back to glory. That would be the preferable sell at least. But A.) the Braves famously won a World Series without Acuna, and B.) even since Acuna's return they've gotten caught in losing stretches. They just want you to forget that cause they've been better since the 9th. But...even if the 2021 team could win without Acuna, this isn't that team.

Firstly, let's at least acknowledge that this is peak Acuna once again, as expected. Last season before the injury he was muted and lesser, now he's very much his old self. In 28 games he's hitting .396 with 9 homers and 16 RBIs. That is Ronald Aucna. This is what he does. It is concerning that he's accumulated that few RBIs given the homer totals, as even Sean Murphy, who's hit 9 homers in 47 games, still has 22 RBIs. Is it just that hard to bat runs in on this team? Is having Nick Allen, Alex Verdugo, Eli White and Bryan de la Cruz as late lineup options really gonna make sure Acuna and Olson can bat runs in? Come on now. 

As much as this team has lost already, they're now losing even more. Chris Sale's likely out for a month or so. Smith-Shawver is out just after getting the hang of things. So much of the team they thought they'd have in March [Lopez, Profar, Kelenic, Arcia] has let them down, and now they're doing their best to keep up. Alex Verdugo is still proving why people put way too much stock in him before, he's yet to hit a home run this season. Austin Riley has 12 homers but is more 'fine' than anything this year. Ozzie Albies is also pretty mediocre. Sean Murphy has improved but now that Drake Baldwin has appeared he's suddenly become Travis D'Arnaud, scaring up a good pace as a backup. Baldwin's hitting .293 with 8 homers, and people are already crying Rookie of the Year but can we at least pick someone who has a good chance of sustaining this success over a career? 

Even still, the Braves have won some nice series' recently, dominating the Brewers, Rockies, Mets and Marlins. This week gives them two more division matchups, the Mets and Phils, and so far they seem to be on a similar run. Eventually either their lack of depth is gonna catch up to them or they're just gonna cement themselves as a minimalistic, more one-dimensional good team and see if that gets them a further playoff spot. And if that works I'll probably chuck my TV out the window.

Coming Tonight (?)- We talk about the Mets wasting a lot of players, but this guy has a definite case that they ate up too much of his career on silly shit. 

Coming Back to Haunt Us

 

As disappointing as the Red Sox have been this year, arriving around .500, you wouldn't know it from their quality of play against the New York Yankees. They won one game against the Sox and then the Sox kept shutting them up, eventually jumpstarting their scoreless run. And they did it, ironically, with a lot of former Yankees. Their closer right now is Aroldis Chapman, who's been excellent in the ninth again. They're getting a healthy season out of Garrett Whitlock, who's been one of their more crucial bullpen arms. Their hero bench bat continues to be former Yankee prospect Rob Refsnyder, who's once again hitting .300 off the bench, harkening back to fellow utility bench guys like Lou Merloni and Brock Holt. 

And of course, you have one of their biggest triumphs this season, former Yankee prospect Carlos Narvaez. Narvy was a perennial Rail-Rider, and while he made the majors for 6 games last year, we had no room for him between Wellsy and Trevino. Trading him and then immediately dealing Trevvy must have been cruel. But Narvaez not only found a nice home in Boston, but was able to ride a great spring showing to a roster spot, and outdid usual starter Connor Wong for a starting spot. And then, first Yanks-Sox series of the year, Narvaez gets to be the hero. Funny how that works out. 

Narvaez is the Sox's surest catching option since they traded Christian Vazquez. Not only is he great defensively, but he's hitting .276 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs. Definitely an upgrade from the comparatively lopsided Wong. I think if he keeps this up he could be a pretty sure piece for the Sox moving forward, and it's insanely fortuitous that he showed up here right after the Sox traded their biggest catching prospect, Kyle Teel, to Chicago. Teel's struggling in the majors right now while Narvaez is surging.

Jumping off on that point, Teel, even if he's out of Boston, has still picked up on the Sox' products trend of completely cratering this season. Campbell is already back in the minors, Anthony and Mayer are hitting around .150, Dobbins is already hurt, and even Duran, Houck and Casas have been disappointments. The thought was that Boston was gonna show the world their next generation was ready this year, and they went ahead with the rollout, even trading Devers to make room, and...these guys just aren't ready. Campbell had a hot start but was hitting .223 when he was sent down. Mayer's hitting .186, Anthony .128. These guys clearly can wreck the ball in the minors, but it's just not working at the MLB level yet, which is kinda heartbreaking. The stage was set, the road was paved, and yet...we're still here.

The Sox have time for these guys to grow into stars, but the hope that it could happen this season is beginning to dissipate. Now there's rumors the Sox might try to get rid of Alex Bregman, or even Duran, and...I dunno, I just saw this going much differently for them. I'm personally fine if they don't compete, but with everything they had going for them at the top of the season it'd still be heartbreaking.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been back for 28 games and he already has a higher WAR than like 90% of the team. 

The Ever-Steepening Cliff

 

Not enough people talk about how upsettingly hot and cold the Padres can be. In 2022 and 2024, the Padres had pennant-contending teams that, given slightly different rolls of the dice, could have gone all the way. Last year down the stretch the Padres were scarily good. Just this year, the Padres had this unstoppable home record for a month or so. On May 14th they were 27-15, and in a truly great position with a chance at sliding past the Dodgers. And since then they've been embarrassingly mediocre. They're 42-35 in that time, meaning things have evened out while still staying above .500. The Giants have lapped them, and now they have Rafael Devers joining the fun. The Padres, though, despite having two of the best hitters in the majors, have regressed in the past month. Which is not a good look.

It's somewhat more nuanced than 'beyond Tatis and Machado there's not much going on', but that's how it looks. Michael King, their best pitcher of the first two months, is hurt and out for a little while. Nick Pivetta, who had some awesome starts in April and May, has slowed down and is having one of his bouts of patheticness. Jackson Merrill, while hitting .300, has limited his playing time thanks to injuries. A bunch of all-stars like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts are just...playing perfectly fine. Bogie is hitting .250 with 4 homers. Where is his Boston production?? Come on now!

With all of that, a lot of replacement level guys are having to do more of the work. Randy Vazquez and his 3-4 record might be one of the more consistent pitchers they've had. Rookies Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert have had more success keeping runs down than Cease at times. Jason Adam, even in his least-favorite month of June, still has a 1.85 ERA and still is as dominant as he was in Tampa. One of the stars of the lineup in June has been Gavin Sheets, the former White Sox power hitter whose streakiness has given way to very impressive tears, like in May where he hit 8 homers and 22 RBIs, and already has 11 RBIs in June. And with all the veteran DH/bench guys the Padres have tried this year [Jose Iglesias, Yuli Gurriel, Jason Heyward, Martin Maldonado, Connor Joe] it's a wonder that Sheets, who's never had a positive WAR, is the one that's working. 

The Padres could always turn it around, but not only have they lost a lot of nice pieces, but they've come out of the Dodgers series looking even worse. They're in third, slightly rebounding with the Royals series, and now they're trying not to fall behind with the Nationals [winning as I write this] and the Reds looking to spoil. There's a chance they catch fire like they did last year, but they need a lot more people in position to succeed, and less running in place when that happens. 

Coming Tonight: It's always the ex-Yankee prospects that make us really regret it all, right?

deRevenge

 

The Texas Rangers have four people on their pitching staff whose entire personality is missing entire seasons of baseball due to injury. FOUR. And three of them are currently injured, and for some reason this is surprising to them. Like 'oh no, we have to bring up Dane Dunning and have him start, this is a disas-' YOU KNOWINGLY SIGNED TYLER MAHLE AND NATE EOVALDI. You KNOW what their deal is. Eo obviously has more healthy moments these days, but you know the drill.

You know who hasn't gotten injured yet, and I say this with trepidation because he never usually makes it out of June? That's right. Your favorite hurler and mine, Jacob deGrom. For all of you worried that he'd never pitch a full season again, I give you the satisfying news that with his next start, deGrom will have his 16th start of a year, a feat not surpassed since before the pandemic. 2020 was his last full campaign, which is...a wild and troubling stat. And in this healthy, revitalized year, deGrom is, unsurprisingly, pitching like his old self. So far he's got a 2.24 ERA, a 7-2 record and 87 Ks. For the Rangers, who have been surprisingly mediocre this year, deGrom has been the rock. 

In other words, Jacob deGrom is doing exactly what the Rangers signed him to do: stand there and not let runs score. It took him three seasons to do so consistently and for more than a month, but here he is. 

What's funny is that because the Rangers are struggling, and because deGrom is about halfway through his Texas contract, you're already hearing rumors he'll be dealt. One very fun rumor links him back to the Mets, who, while not completely out of luck rotation wise, have routinely needed a fifth man in times of injury. If Montas and Manaea return and stay healthy, and if Senga eventually returns, this may not be needed, but people have been talking about it. If you'd asked deGrom, of course he'd want to return to Queens. He'd play for a competitor, and he'd actually get run support. Whenever the Rangers have run support he's hurt. He's healthy this year, the Rangers score some runs but then forget to a lot of the time. 

Honestly, though, if it's not the Mets it'll be someone disappointing. The Dodgers would piss me off, the Astros would piss me off, the Cardinals would piss me off. The Yankees would piss YOU ALL off, I dunno if we'd need it but I'd take the help. There's always gonna be that liability, though, with deGrom, which is 'will he last til October?' He did in 2015, but he was younger then. He's 37 now. Every start he's aware of the risk. He's trying his best to pitch like he always does without missing more time, and so far he's doing well. But seeing as Chris Sale just got hurt again, the risk has to loom. 

I hope deGrom has a season he's proud of, wherever he ends up going, if anywhere. After all that rotten luck, he deserves one.

Coming Tomorrow- Proof that getting the hell out of Chicago can save careers. 

CINconsistency

 

The NL Central has the energy of a frigging abacus. The top and the bottom team stays the same, but the ones in the middle keep flailing about in all directions. The Cardinals, Reds and Brewers have all ebbed and flowed frequently this season, with all three bouncing around the middle positions. It is equal parts impressive and infuriating. This weekend the Cardinals and Reds played each other, and as you might expect it was relatively even. The Cards took two, then the Reds responded with a gem courtesy of Andrew Abbott, who just has to stay healthy and maybe will soak up some of Paul Skenes's Cy Young votes. 

In a division of sporadic teams, the Reds might be the most sporadic thought. They will follow a stretch where they look unbeatable with a stretch where they lose 4 and head to fourth place. A lot like the Twins, but on a much smaller scale, the Reds will never let something impressive go without an immediate drawback. Just look at Elly de la Cruz, who has 17 homers, 21 steals and 52 RBIs yet strikes out far too much to be taken seriously as an MVP candidate. Clearly de la Cruz is the face of this team, but he's not as immaculate as prime Acuña. He's got flaws, like so many other players, and only so many big games can mask that. 

This team also just has so many players who will get off to a great start and immediately get hurt. Every year. Once again, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft are missing time, as is Brandon Williamson. At the very least, the Reds have prepared a little more so they're not completely without backup plans as starters start going down, but so far Carson Spiers, Chase Petty and Wade Miley have failed as the fifth option. Meaning they have to go with mega-prospect Chase Burns in a forthcoming start against the Yankees. If it works, they've got a 5th option that works, one that looks MLB-ready. But again, there's so many options that didn't, and even more like Williamson, Julian Aguiar and Rhett Lowder, who weren't even healthy enough to factor into this season to begin with. You think they've finally happened upon a working formula and then even that sinks. So I'm counting on Burns to at least add some stability, because if not then I'll just choose to believe that this rotation is cursed.

Something that's been frustrating me about this team has been how many trusted starters are not being trusted at their own positions anymore. The Reds are afraid to play Gavin Lux at second, they're afraid to start Tyler Stephenson at catcher, and they're still not sure about where they're supposed to play McLain or Steer. This is not a great defensive team, and only Steer is a true above-average fielder right now. And even then you have defensive subs, like Santiago Espinal and Will Benson, that aren't very good either. 

I'm trying to give this team the benefit of the doubt, but the same factors are failing them, even with Francona's help. Unless something turns around we're gonna be cycling through this several more times and no one will be any wiser.

Coming Tonight: Arguably a future Hall of Famer, and someone who may have an impact on the big picture of this season before he knows it. 

Nowhere Duran

 

I dunno, something about these Baldelli Twins teams always have a way of balancing out. From April 20th to May 20th, the Twins won 20 games, the majority of them consecutive. Then since June 4th they've lost 13. They were so good in May that even two of their biggest stars getting concussions only slowed down a little, and now the wheels are falling off. First Zebby Matthews gets hurt, which...I mean, sure, but then Royce Lewis gets hurt, which happens so frequently that there's gotta be a way of preventing it at this point. And now the Twins are back in fourth, which is where they were before they went on the winning streak. There is no middle ground for these guys, they're either on fire or listless.

The issue, inherently, is that the 'background players holding up the team' thing that powered the team in May is now dead. The walls have collapsed. You've now got a lot of guys with .8 WARs running around trying to be helpful. Kody Clemens, despite a lot of offensive production, is hitting .223. Trevor Larnach, despite his 35 RBIs, still can't stop striking out. Wallner just keeps refusing to be the guy. Even Carlos Correa is providing mediocrity, only hitting .246 with 22 RBIs so far. Yes, Buxton and Bader and Castro ensure this team can have an edge, but the varied cast of ensemble players, while helpful in a streak, stand out as unhelpful during a slide. It's beginning to feel like this team really is wasting one of Buxton's fullest and most confident seasons in years, and it's kind of upsetting.

The same can also be said for a dominant campaign from Jhoan Duran, who hasn't been this unhittable since his rookie season in 2022. He's currently got a 1.62 ERA, 10 saves and 39 Ks. Just a dominant, hard-to-get-around closing option, and arguably an improvement over Taylor Rogers. Like a lot of closers these days, Duran is prone to down seasons and stretches, but he's looking better than he has in a while. The bullpen in general is in pretty good shape at the moment as well, even if there's a few too many guys with 4 ERAs. And it just feels like it's for nothing because A.) the lineup has too many places without production and B.) the rotation, aside from Joe Ryan, just feels uninspired right now. 

It's gotta be frustrating for the fans as well. This team felt so exciting and promising before. If this streak had happened in September there'd be playoff hopes and a run and it might lead to something, but it happened midyear and it was surrounded by much more crucial losing stretches. So unless all of this is leading to a much longer, and more sustainable, hot streak, all that may have been for nothing. 

Coming Tomorrow- A couple years ago, the Pirates started billing Oneil Cruz as this all-time talent, a guy who could do anything and hit laser beams and revitalize baseball. And that hasn't exactly happened. But then the Reds brought up this other guy...

The Momentum Jams

 

The Nationals have yet to be above .500 this season, but let the record show that it's gotten close. With James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams all having great seasons, the Nats have been very close to being a good team, and have actually stayed relatively close to the pack during the prior months of the season. At the end of May, the Nats won four straight against tough teams, the Mariners and the Diamondbacks, and were 28-30, very close to .500, and close to flipping the script on their 'not quite ready' reputation. 

We're more than halfway into June, and the Nats have won three games this month. They just got over an 11-game losing streak. And they are now so far out of the race that the Marlins are in danger of lapping them. So much for that.

I think the main issue with this Nats team is that, while the stars have formed, thankfully, there still isn't a strong enough foundation to back them up. Keibert Ruiz, Luis Garcia, Jacob Young and Dylan Crews have all been brought in here to bridge this team towards a championship, and none of them are playing like they're leading anybody anywhere. Young is stealing bases, Crews is hitting for power, but they're not fully formed players right now. Ruiz was supposed to be THE guy for this team, and he's hitting .224 with 2 homers. Granted, Max Scherzer and Trea Turner aren't exactly Dodgers heroes right now, so it's not like they were cheated out of anything. You've also spent money on people like Josh Bell and Nate Lowe and they're not doing much at all. Bell has the weirdest priorities as a hitter, because he'll only do well for you at the oddest moments, and it's mostly like August. 

The rotation is, at least, still promising. Jake Irvin is having another nice season, he's 5-3 with 59 Ks and a 4.23 ERA. Gore leads the league in strikeouts and has a 2.89 ERA to boot. Parker and Lord are less impressive this year but doing their best. And somehow Kyle Finnegan is still a great closer. The pen otherwise is kind of scary, and nearly ruined it during the Rockies game a few days ago. 

This team has just gotten unlucky with injuries to crucial pieces, and promising young guys going cold at the wrong times. There isn't a sense of unity yet, because we're still in the replacement zone and not a lot of these guys are on the same page. The idea is that a huge season from Wood cements him as the centerpiece, and they start really building a team around him and going for it, and Wood is on his way there with 20 homers and 56 RBIs. But at this stage, it's not very realistic to expect everything to click. The supplementary pieces aren't there yet, and they might not be there for another few years.

Coming Tonight: He throws hard, notches saves and keeps his team a threat in the AL Central.

Jay Anything

 

File this away in the category of 'why can't the AL East act like a normal division for five seconds?': currently the AL East has been a race for second place, as the Yankees have an overpowering lead and all the stars. But this week, the pace has slowed tremendously, with a terrible weeklong run including a three game stretch where no runs were being scored, predominantly against the Angels, of all teams. So now the division is shifting, and it's the kind of thing where the team in second place could theoretically leap into first if they continued at literally the same pace.

For the majority of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays have been a steady 2nd place team in this division, led by some fringe-y, Cash-esque tactics of getting contact from unlikely sources. And of course, the moment things open up is the exact moment the Jays fall apart as well, meaning there's a nonzero chance that the Rays somehow become a first place team by the end of the month, which would be the worst outcome. A Rays-Astros ALCS would make me pine for carbon monoxide poisoning. Two teams propelled entirely by organizational meddling and bullshit fumes. The Rays would just engineer all the balls, all hit by no-name 29-year-olds who are about to be traded, to be hit to Jose Altuve's blind spot in left. 

The Blue Jays are proof that, for the first time in a while, the AL East just doesn't have a lot going on below the top bar. The Sox have obviously struggled, the Orioles have fallen apart without proper starting, the Rays are winning games with absolutely no one, and the Jays...honestly define pure mediocrity. This team's best hitters are Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Tyler Heineman, Myles Straw and Nathan Lukes. You put those five together and dress 'em in striped polos and they could rack up like 19 CMA awards. They are a monument to forgettable whiteness. The last time there was a group of people this bland representing a team, the Rays were boycotting pride month. And yes, I am mouthing off about some people hitting .400, in Heineman's case, or with 8 homers, in Barger's case, but like...how do you build a team around this?? How do you plan for the future when your best players are flukey utility guys. Tyler Heineman is a career backup catcher, and he is 34. You are trying to build something here. Don't get carried away with gimmicks.

Miraculously, the Jays do have a proven starter playing his worth this year, as Alejandro Kirk is currently hitting .313 with 34 RBIs and 7 homers. Kirk, somehow, has matured into a great everyday piece for these teams, is beloved by the fans, and though there are months where he doesn't have it together, the hot streaks are worth it. In June alone he's hitting .355 with 12 RBIs and 4 homers. There's a chance he squeezes into the ASG conversation, much like Guerrero, Bichette and Clement. 

The Jays have somehow put together a decent, if unconventional, lineup, which is why it's so heartbreaking how pathetic the pitching has been. Berrios and Bassitt are fine but have done better. Gausman's got his ERA over 4 again. Eric Lauer has been thrust in to replace Bowden Francis and it seems to be working at the moment. The idea is that Scherzer will be back this week and stop the bleeding, but can Scherzer stay healthy for more than six weeks anymore? I mean, unlike Verlander at least he's on target when he's healthy but he's barely ever healthy anymore.

The Jays have some massive flaws, yet have won games despite them. I'd love to see them fight through their bad luck and cement second again. Who knows if they'll allow that to happen.

Coming Tomorrow- A pitcher whose team just broke a massive losing streak in wild fashion.

2 DHs, 1 Bay

 

So, from what I can gather, here's what the Giants are going for with Rafael Devers, at least until Chapman gets back. Either Devers gets DH, and Smith and Schmitt take the corners, or Devers takes first, Flores takes DH and Schmitt takes third, OR Devers takes third, Smith takes 1st and Flores DHs. I think the object is both to ensure Devers feels he's being valued for his flexibility rather than doing what the teams wants, and to ensure that Wilmer Flores doesn't have to play the infield. But I see the point of keeping both Devers and Flores in the lineup. Because Rafael Devers is one of the best hitters in the game so far, and because Wilmer Flores has 51 RBIs and is theoretically on the way to his first-ever 100 RBI season. 

That's been wild, by the way. Earlier this year, Flores was leading the league, for a week or so, in RBIs. He's come back down a little, evened out, but those 51 RBIs still look very good, and are the most of anyone on the team. After years of utility work in Queens, Flores has become a pure production guy, and has been an integral part of the last few Giants teams. I don't think getting Devers means he's not good at his job, it just means when you have an opportunity to get Rafael Devers, you take it and then move things around. Devers, at last, is someone the Giants can build a team around, more than Yaz or Chapman or Adames, and now they're heading after the Dodgers with a great year from a happier Devers, a Cy Young-contending comeback season from Robbie Ray, and the return of Justin Verlander.

I mean this sincerely when I say the things that the Giants have that are a little wonky or imperfect are part of their charm. Having 42-year-old Verlander out there, still yet to get a win [as I write this], but still giving it his all. Relying on guys like Flores and Dominic Smith and Tyler Rogers. The Dodgers may have all that money but it bought them like 9 guys who are hurt. Matt Chapman gets hurt for a couple weeks but that's it. Nobody else is so injured that it's wounded the team, at least not yet. And the sort of cobbled-together, dogeared roster this team has is very fun to watch, especially as an underdog. The Dodgers are expected to win, the Padres were expected to compete, but the Giants have gotten great years out of Heliot Ramos, Logan Webb, Jung Hoo Lee and Camilo Doval, and they don't seem to be done yet.

The one issue is that without Hicks and Harrison, the Giants suddenly need to rethink their rotation strategy. They're now forced to do Webb-Ray-Birdsong-Roupp-Verlander, and...I think this will work? Roupp has had some good starts but his ERA is teetering over 4. Birdsong is becoming a great MLB pitcher but is this the best time to be trying him out? Who's even the next-nearest option? Mason Black? Is that a good idea? They have to see if this works, and it's a very dire time to be testing out a new rotation, because if it doesn't work they slip past the Padres and lose the momentum. 

Having Devers is nice, but they need everybody to be on board and keep pounding away. I think it's possible, but we're gonna see how much they're willing to produce.

Coming Tonight: It's kinda nice he's kept the starting catching job after all these years I guess.

Always Be Closing: All That Remains

 

I've written a lot about how the '30 saves a season for more than five years' closer is practically a thing of the past, now that there are more professional relievers and more of an insistence on giving the RP1 the ninth rather than farming a closer over time. There's more mobility, more opportunities, and more of an immediate mentality of swapping out the closer if it's not working out, because each team has like 4 guys that can close games now. This season, the Phillies have seen Jordan Romano, Matt Strahm and now Orion Kerkering work the ninth at different points. The Yankees have given it to Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Mark Leiter and Fernando Cruz. Therefore, Williams maybe won't be a 30-save guy for the next several years. You're even seeing Emmanuel Clase struggle in the ninth, which is why you build an award-winning bullpen of young guys. 

Which is why it's so refreshing that the Astros actually value a permanent closer. They signed Josh Hader to a deal, and the expectation is he's gonna close for the rest of that contract. No 'you have to earn it' like Kirby Yates or Aroldis Chapman. No 'if it lines up' like Jeff Hoffman. Hader's automatically a closing option, because he's had 30 or more saves every full season since 2019. I remember 2018, when we figured Hader would be a career setup man due to Corey Knebel's ninth inning prowess, but Knebel petered out, Hader got the ninth and never looked back. At 31 he already has 217 saves, which is high for the modern era honestly, and is still very much in his peak period.

I think it's safe to say, with apologies to Emmanuel Clase as he builds back up again, that Hader might be the last traditional closer of this current era. Chapman, Kimbrel and Jansen are all on the way out, and there aren't many other guys who've racked up the accomplishments Hader has, so he's sort of in a class of his own. And already this season, with Pressly gone, it's really just been him vying for saves, and he's got 18 already with a 1.45 ERA. This will probably be Hader's strongest season in Houston, even if the rest of the team has its flaws. 

Now, why has Hader succeeded while others have failed? I'm not sure. Because Hader did have a down year in 2022, upon arriving in San Diego, and immediately rebounded the following year. My guess is that teams are just so infatuated with Hader's upside, consistent dominance and high speeds, that they can take a down season or so, especially compared to rough multi-year stretches like Jansen, Chapman and Kimbrel all had. Even Edwin Diaz, the closest thing to Hader's level of perennial closer, has given the Mets several less-than-stellar seasons, and only seems to find success when everyone's counted him out. Hader, comparatively just goes on by and does his thing. It's kind of wild how rare that is nowadays, especially considering how many closers will overthrow and either strain or be out for a year.

I think Hader's also been lucky that he's almost always been on very good teams that have given him a handful of save situations. I think about Kimbrel in 2022 on the Dodgers, and how the team was so good at the plate that they barely needed a closer, or even a good closer. The Astros right now are very good, but they're not perfect, and try as they might they're not easily gonna fill those holes at 2nd, DH and RF. Hell, their big ploy at filling 1st, getting Christian Walker, has barely worked. Isaac Paredes, Hunter Brown and Cam Smith have been very good developments, and getting to 1st in the AL West is easy when your three fiercest competitors always plan the bit where they trip on their own shoelaces every year. But they will need Hader, because the games are gonna be close, and the competition is gonna try to sniff them out. So the Astros, like Hader, are very lucky, and they need to hope that Hader has a few more terrific years in him.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up as a utility infielder and now exists purely as an RBI machine.

The Limits of Complacency

 

Let's be honest with ourselves. The Cardinals have a very okay team that's had some very good games. The star performer is Brendan Donovan, and again the Cardinals have to be careful about building the team around a utility guy. Nolan Arenado has calmed down, Fedde and Gray are human, and there just aren't standouts. The Cardinals have gone deep without standouts before, but in those cases there's been a sense that they're building something. In 2019, even if I didn't like the infrastructure of it, that was a youth movement backing up a core of guys like Goldschmidt, Ozuna and Carpenter. Here, everything's all over the place.

So seeing the Cardinals plummet through June, toiling around fourth, even after proving they can win games for a good month...isn't surprising for me. The Cardinals have trouble confusing a winning streak with truly clicking, and right now has cemented that they just haven't clicked. This current shellacking of the White Sox is an attempt to distract you all from that. It's only the White Sox.

Honestly, given everything that was put upon Sonny Gray when joining this team, he hasn't done too badly for himself. Last year he gave up a ton of homers but he still struck a lot of people out. His 203 K season was his second of 200 or more, and his first since 2019. And right now he's 7-2, with a 3.84 ERA and 85 Ks, which is a pretty decent line honestly. But he's not keeping runs down like he did in Minnesota. Maybe it's because he's 35, which...it's wild that we've reached veteran hurler era Sonny Gray after how he broke in as a rookie postseason hero. But the sheer dominance that got the Cardinals to pay for Gray has dissipated a bit. Now he's just a regular ol hurler with some K perks. It's still working fine for them, he's been pretty trustworthy, but the Cardinals' rotation doesn't have that strong ace, and hasn't since Jack Flaherty left.

There are good pitchers aligned in a group, but it's not really a cohesive rotation. I guess Matthew Liberatore is the closest thing to an actual young talent, but his ERA's over 4. Fedde, Liberatore, Pallante and Mikolas are all fine, but there's no one who can be consistently relied upon to close down an offense, just like there's no real consistent power hitter on this team. Nobody has over 10 home runs: Willson Contreras is the closest with 9. There's no real bench depth, an okay bullpen...this team just feels unfinished. And the first half of May has poked holes in the armor.

There's a chance the Cardinals bounce back, and the way this organization works it's always possible, but I think they're better off unloading some of the bigger pieces, doing away with Arenado, and just trying to get everybody on the same page at some point. Cause whatever this is won't get them a playoff spot. I don't even know what I'm looking at here.

Coming Tomorrow- Not even that disastrous 2022 season could derail his career, and that must mean he's in it for the long haul. 

What's Left of the Guardians' Rotation

 

I've talked at length on here about the Guardians' attempts to repopulate their rotation in the manner of their late-2010s legendary one, and how they've altered standpoints so many times that it's amazed the strategies can work. The most recent strategies involved smashing the preexisting model together with a class of rookies in 2023, and then smashing that unit together with a series of new veterans last year. And all of this has given way to the Guardians' 2025 rotation...which has no identity. 

Here is what the Guardians are working with currently: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen, all homegrown pitchers of varying quality, Luis Ortiz, who they got from Pittsburgh, and Slade Cecconi, who they got from Arizona. And then currently injured are Ben Lively, done for the season, Shane Bieber, expected to return soon, and John Means, expected to return eventually but who knows for how long. For once, this rotation doesn't seem to have a master plan, it's just 'whoever's around that can still throw'. And seeing as 9 years ago the Guardians went to a World Series with 'I mean we have Ryan Merritt to start if we absolutely need him', that's a hard fall.

Bibee and Williams are atop this rotation, and they are both...fine. Not blowing the doors off the place, just fine. Williams actually has a winning record, he's 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA and 72 Ks, but his WHIP is 1.471. He's been decent, but he hasn't put together an OMG campaign yet, despite years of promise in the minors. Bibee is similarly mediocre, he's 4-6 with a 3.79 ERA and 65 Ks. Bibee is the ace, and compared to past aces like Kluber and Bieber he's not much at all. Luis Ortiz leads the team in strikeouts but also leads the league in losses with 8. Nobody's getting consistently rocked, but everybody has like 3.70, 4.30 ERAs and it's...not gonna win this team a Championship. Or even a division title, seeing how the Tigers' rotation is doing. 

So now it's even more important for the Guardians' contact game to keep working, because at the moment it's all they've got. Luckily Jose Ramirez still has his on-base streak, Steven Kwan is still hitting .300, and Carlos Santana is having another consistent year in his late 30s. There's a lot of .230 averages otherwise but they're doing their best, and we've all seen this team erupt late before, they're due for a lull or so. Worryingly, though, they're at .500 and have lost a lot of easy matches to non-competitive teams. To survive in this division, the Guardians need to find a groove and dial in, because what they have is 'fine' when it should be exemplary. 

It definitely can be done, but I'm not sure if the Guardians have it in them this year. Certainly not in this state.

Coming Tonight: It's wild, knowing how young and cool he was for the A's, seeing him grow into the veteran hurler he's become.  

Juan Year Later

 

I'm still not entirely sure how people are going to talk about Juan Soto's sole year in Yankee pinstripes after more time has gone by. There's clearly comparisons, like Reggie Jackson's 1976 in Baltimore, or Nelson Cruz's 2014 in Baltimore, or even Corbin Burnes' 2024...in Baltimore. Somebody who comes in for one season, does what they can in memorable fashion and leaves. But this is different. This is something that could have worked long-term and for whatever mixture of personal reasons it didn't, and it hurt us. When Reggie left the O's, I don't think there was that level of betrayal, because Yanks-O's was contentious, but not as contentious as Yanks-Mets has been lately.

Or maybe people will emphasize the novelty. Like 'all involved parties really thought this would work, and then were shocked when it didn't.' It's like how occasionally I remember that there exists an album, in between two classics, where Dave Navarro of Jane's Addiction played guitar for the Red Hot Chili Peppers. And I'm not even an RHCP guy, I just hear what they play on the radio, albeit every third song. But I definitely know what that band sounded like with Dave Navarro, because John Fruisciante has a very clear guitar sound, and Navarro is a very different kind of guitar player. It did work, that album, in its own kinda odd, mid-90s way, but like...it wasn't sustainable. And so you have to assume it all happened for the right reasons and that the stuff that comes after is more rewarding [and it is].

Juan Soto, meanwhile, has fit right in with the Mets, after a struggle in mid-May. He now leads the Mets in WAR with 2.9, and in walks with 60 unsurprisingly, but has 36 RBIs and 13 home runs. A lot like in the full season in San Diego, he is just doing his thing, and that still puts him ahead of the majority of his contemporaries. He's only hitting .247, but he gets on base more than most, he hits for contact and power, and he's still only 26. As alright as he's been, he's been way better in June, and is gearing up to get to full capacity by the time the Mets are approaching a run.

And the way things are going, that's looking very likely. With three of the best players in baseball, Soto, Alonso and Lindor, plugged squarely into the lineup, this team is out in front and in a very good place in the NL East. This team has also seen improvements in its bench depth, its late rotation and its bullpen, and even losing Kodai Senga isn't going to kill this team. If anything, they'll get Manaea and Montas back at some point, will do well enough with Paul Blackburn, and should stay on target. 

Juan Soto without the Yankees should, ultimately, be fine. The Yankees without Soto...I suppose we'll see how badly we need him this fall.

Coming Tomorrow- A onetime hard-throwing prospect now trying to keep the big league club from falling in on itself. 

The Evil is Defeated (?)

 

Here is how yesterday went for me: a great deal of frustration due to the Yankees not being able to hit Brayan Bello, while Rafael Devers continued to tee off us like it was his mission in life. I even said it out loud to my dad, "Devers is the new Yankee killer." His generation had Ellis Burks, mine had Carlos Pena, now we have Devers, just hacking away at Yankee pitching every series. 

And then the rest of the day went by, and around 7 PM I checked my phone and saw that the Red Sox had just traded Devers to the Giants for Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks and two minor leaguers. And, like a lot of you, was absolutely gobsmacked.

I feel like I'd just written about this recently, the fact that the Red Sox seemed so willing to keep Devers for the long run yet continued to make decisions that completely undermined his position on the team. Signing Bregman, delegating Devers to third, then asking him to play 1st and being surprised when he doesn't. They just seemed at odds, Devers and the brass, and so this happening isn't THE most shocking thing, but...this happening in June, and immediately after a game where Devers dominates the Yanks, is kinda huge. So now the Sox have DH mobility, can focus on the kids and don't have that contract hanging over them.

And...moreover...the Yankees don't have to play Rafael Devers like 15 games a year. Which helps.

This series with the Sox humbled the Yankees, though not in a way that completely alienates us. Max Fried got the loss yesterday, yet only gave up 2 runs. Judge is still hitting the way he's hitting, and even mustered a homer in all this. The only things the Sox have over us now is the Carlos Narvaez thing and some decent luck. Without Devers, the field has been evened. Also, without Devers, the Sox are a fourth place team still staring at a first place Yankee team, their biggest weapon against us now in San Francisco.

The Yankees still have plenty of weapons I'm excited about. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .309 with 79 hits and 9 homers, with another prime season even as I worried 2024 spelled the end of his peak. Jazz Chisholm is back and booming, finally getting his average to a more normal place. Volpe's hitting .250 with 49 RBIs, that's a much better statistical start from him. D.J. LeMahieu seems to have gotten everything out of his system, hitting .267 with 9 RBIs in 25 games. And Judge is still Judge. 60 RBIs by June 15th. That is insane. 

I'm still very happy with this Yankee team, and I think there's even more strong stuff to come, even as we get some series that look like gimmes but could be spoilers. With Devers out of the East, the only way should be up for these guys.

Coming Tonight: An ex-Yankee. You know the one.

Freddie Freeman Can't Stop

 

After Kirk Gibson hit his Game 1 home run against Dennis Eckersley in the 1988 World Series, he was never the same. Never hit 25 homers again, never even touched 100 RBIs. Had a decent enough year in 1990 but it couldn't match up. He retired a few years later in Detroit, capping off a very full career. But the prevailing idea is that Kirk Gibson sort of faded off after his big, heroic moment. And fading off really isn't Freddie Freeman's style.

Obviously the home run in last year's World Series was the hero-making move he'd needed after a decade and a half of steady, respectable work. He was already a borderline Hall of Famer, that cemented it. He's in his age-35 season, he's already over 1000 career RBIs, and he's the active leader in both hits and doubles. Hell, he's even got 2 World Series rings, the same amount Kirk Gibson won. But Freeman is a legendary talent, and a remarkable hitter, and even at 35 he's got way more to do.

So, this season, Freddie Freeman has already broken 350 career home runs, gotten off to the lead in batting average in the NL, outweighs all Dodgers not named Ohtani in OPS, and has helped the Dodgers stay in first despite sharp competition. There was a fear that he'd be sliding off his peak within a year of coming to LA, but that hasn't happened, and in a shakier season from Mookie Betts, Freeman has stepped up to become one of the best things about his team. A lesser player would continue to skirt on by off the fumes of the home run, but not Freeman. He's still performing at the best of his ability, and that's why he's a future Hall of Famer.

The Dodgers, even in first, have gotten themselves in some potential trouble. The rotation merry-go-round is still an issue, as now Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius are stacking on top of each other to cover the fifth spot for Emmett Sheehan, who should be returning this week. Though, considering how long Tony Gonsolin lasted, who knows when a spot will open back up. Dustin May and Landon Knack are doing their best, but both have been shaken by injuries and are having some tough starts. The great news is Clayton Kershaw truly looks like his classic self, and had a terrific start last night against the Giants, but...he's 37. That's unsustainable for 33 games these days. This is still a factor, and good teams like the Padres and Giants, now armed with a famed Dodger-killer, are looking to exploit it. 

This Dodgers team can still outhit people, and having Shohei Ohtani certainly helps, but unless the rotation stops getting hurt every five seconds, these aren't gonna be runaways. Once a team like this is equalized, everything that made it intimidating doesn't matter anymore. So hopefully Freddie Freeman can keep this team moving before the injury issue gets even worse.

Coming Tomorrow- A first baseman I used to dislike til the moment he started hitting .300 for my team.

Waste Another Year

 

So, to recap: in 2024, the Mariners had the best rotation in baseball and couldn't compete because nobody on the team could hit. It is a year later, and they've improved their lineup, including a guy who could set the mark for home runs by a catcher, and they're 6 games back from 1st because their rotation's a liability now. If we could have just...got both of those factors lined up, then maybe I wouldn't have to watch the Astros keep winning this damned division.

The Mariners' rotation was untouchable last year, so it's only fitting that a lot of their members are fatigued this season. Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are both hurt, George Kirby missed time and has an ERA around 6, and Luis Castillo, while decent enough, has had a few too many 'human' starts. And then you have people like Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans filling in and while they're filling innings, they're just not as good. People can hit them. Bryan Woo's the only one who's really soaring right now, and funnily enough he was the only one of the four who missed substantial time last year. Almost like having the best year of your career and then doing it again the next season is unsustainable now that everyone throws really hard.

There is a chance that people come back and make a slightly-more-cobbled together version of that rotation for down the stretch, but the mystique is gone. A number of these guys are just beatable now, and a lot of teams know it. So there are more puncture points, and more ways to win. Which means the Mariners need to work on continuing to outhit people, and even with Cal Raleigh leading the league in homers, it's gonna take the whole team. 

Julio Rodriguez is having his best season in a couple years, and seems like himself after a much more tepid 2024. He's got a 3.3 WAR, 34 RBIs, 10 homers and 11 steals. Even with Raleigh sitting the league on fire, Julio leads the team in war, and seems to be the leadership figure he was always supposed to be. And keep in mind, this team also has Randy Arozarena on it, he's notoriously a helpful central figure for teams. Julio has become 'the guy' for the Mariners, and yet this team can still benefit from the work of people like Raleigh, Arozarena, Jorge Polanco and J.P. Crawford. So far, aside from last season, he's been everything the scouts had promised, and he's still only 24.

Of course, the issue is even with this offensive rebound, they still can't catch the Astros, who are out pitching them and outhitting them at the moment. You hope that the tide can turn, and the Astros can get their just desserts, but do the Mariners have a season like this in them, even with these obvious flaws? I guess we'll find out.

Coming Tonight: He could have mailed it in after last October but the way he's hitting he's still got a ton left to prove, even 15 years into his career.