Painfully Common Men

 

The Blue Jays could have used this Orioles series this weekend as a way of reestablishing leverage and keeping a foothold on some of the goings-on in the AL East. Instead, they dropped 2 games, including a walkoff, and the story is instead how the Orioles are quietly gaining momentum. Nice going.

The odd thing is, the loss of Dylan Cease, at least for a little while, didn't seem to heavily affect this team's leverage. Even without Cease, they still have Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Patrick Corbin moving the needle. They could have had Eric Lauer in a time like this, with two open rotation spots being given to bullpen days, but apparently the Dodgers needed him more. Gausman, ultimately, has regained the ace mantle, and has been once again on target, with a 3.13 ERA and 66 Ks, plus a 1.087 WHIP. Gausman is continuing his strong work from 2025, and has remained one of the most consistent starting weapons of the decade. Since 2021, Gausman has made all his starts, struck out over 160 batters, won at least 10 games, and finished with an ERA lower than 3.85. Remember when every pitcher could do that for six seasons? Now Gausman, who we all thought was cooked after a rough 2019 in Atlanta, is one of a few who can. And I'm very happy for him.

Also once again going for the attendance award is bafflingly inconsistent starter Patrick Corbin, whose unpredictability made him a pariah after his Nats contract ended. In actuality, Corbin hasn't really been hurt since his 2014 surgery, and has made all his starts every year since then. Now...the material isn't always STELLAR...and from 2021 to 2023 Corbin led the league in losses, but his time in Arlington represented a surprising step forward, even if his second half was inferior to his first. Now in Toronto, Corbin being seventh in line to start led to a relatively early rotation promotion [thanks to the Scherzer injury], and since then he's been shockingly reliable. He's got a 3.65 ERA and 36 Ks, even if his WHIP is up at 1.358. All Corbin really needs to do is fulfill the Chris Bassitt role and eat innings, and he's certainly doing that. And meanwhile, behind them, Trey Yesavage is having a very strong full year of work, with a 2.19 ERA in 7 starts,

Beyond that core three, and Louie Varland who's been absolutely untouchable in a prime relief role, the Jays don't have a ton to report recently. They've remained relatively steady, and are only 2 games under .500, but the x-factor of 2025 is basically gone. The 'uncommon men' group isn't doing nearly as much as last year, with Barger hurt, Straw struggling, Schneider demoted and Clement, despite the contact parade, a few steps down from last year overall. There's just less overall depth, and with Jesus Sanchez down with a freak 'catch-playing' injury, the indestructibility is also questionable. Vlad and Varsho are doing everything they can but the full squad effort isn't where it was last year.

But, again, it is still relatively early, and the Jays haven't committed enough faults to be dangerously out of the way. So it could all come back. After all, these Jays teams have a tendency to get hot in June, and look what starts tomorrow..

Coming Tomorrow- He was practically untouchable in May. Can he do what no Phils pitcher has done in years and carry a Cy Young case all the way through?

Empty Threats

 

The Padres, like last year, are firmly in second place, a few games behind the Dodgers, in attempt to intimidate them for the division. Unlike last year, I have no idea how the heck they can be intimidating when they lineup's barely showing up as it is.

I mean, look. Since 2024 we've been building around a core of Machado, Tatis, Merrill, Bogaerts. Okay. Manny Machado has 9 home runs and 28 RBIs, but he's hitting .171 and has a -0.4 WAR, some of the most pitifully one-dimensional numbers of his entire career. You can see he's trying but he's just not having a good time up there. Fernando Tatis, despite hitting .268 with a team-leading 55 hits...cannot hit home runs anymore. It's not happening. Whatever took him down a year or so ago, whatever injury, that took his power ability away. We're two months into the season and we're JUST NOW getting to his first homer of the season. He launched one last night. Need I remind you, this man hit FORTY-TWO before, and he started a lot earlier than May 30th. I know his father put up a high bar for squandering sky-high potential, but you can't seriously be chasing that. Jackson Merrill, meanwhile, is only hitting .201 with 5 home runs and 21 RBIs, possibly with the opposite problem as Machado where he's still technically pre-peak. Xander Bogaerts is at least producing runs, he's got 5 homers and 25 RBIs, but that's the best of the four.

And so it's been up to people like Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Ramon Laureano and Ty France to do most of the work, and it really shouldn't. They're the supplemental guys, they help you out. Sheets leads the team in OPS with .834, and he's got 9 dingers of his own, and...it's very nice, but he should be among a bunch of people driving in the runs. It shouldn't be him leading the charge. Laureano's ONCE AGAIN doing more work than he should for a cheap contract, just not as prominently as in Baltimore. France is hitting .287, has 6 homers and 17 RBIs, and is finding success he never was able to in San Diego. Seeing him in the same infield as Machado is wild. Even wilder that France is playing better.

The runs are getting produced, but the core isn't really responsible. Thankfully, with a pitching staff this good it doesn't really matter. King, Vazquez and Giolito are holding things down for 6 innings, then you go to honestly any bullpen guy and you're good. This year Bradgley Rodriguez is the big standout, but Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta, Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui and, well, Mason Miller, are all having excellent seasons. So really, the dysfunction in the lineup isn't as much of an issue as it could be because the rest of the team's doing what it should be doing. It ain't pretty, but it's working.

In order to FINALLY catch the Dodgers, they're gonna need the stars to step up and flip the script on their seasons. Cause if not, there's really no point. We've proven that Tatis can hit homers again. He needs to prove that the recovery period is over, and that he's gonna keep hitting them at a gradually accelerating rate. Y'know, like a ballplayer might.

Coming Tonight: 8 years after divebombing his career after a trade to a competitor, one of the most consistent pitchers of the 2020s continues his excellent run in Toronto.

Don't Let the Mets Get You Down

 

So, story time. Back when boxes of cards were actually affordable I used to do these box breaks for the blog, and a lot of them were older, cheaper products but one time I went for a box of 2019 Topps Heritage Minors. Why not, right? It was a pretty cool rip, I pulled a Jo Adell game-used jersey card whose value has fluctuated like a gosh darned barometer, and I pulled an on-cast autograph of a Brooklyn Cyclones outfielder named Carlos Cortes. 

Now I don't really break these for the hits, I honestly do it for the XRC possibility. So a Julio XRC, a Robert XRC, an Oneil Cruz XRC, all this was the pull. The hits didn't need to be big, though the Adell didn't hurt. But getting a Mets prospect I hadn't heard of was...at least better than getting a Marlins prospect I hadn't heard of, which is my usual auto luck. Cortes could go either way. I kept the card, despite the occasional inclination of trading it.

I still have it. I reckon the value's gone up a hair this year.

Carlos Cortes has gone from a struggling power bat stuck in the Mets' farm system to a lead off schtarker with insane contact ability for the 2nd place Athletics. Cortes is now starting in right field, and hitting .333 with a .945 OPS. This was charming bench bat stuff last year, and now we're talking some lethal material, even for a 29-year-old who, for all intents and purposes, is still a rookie as far as Topps is concerned [of course, they also think anyone who debuts south of May 20th is a 'call-up' they can't profit off of til 2027, so what do they know?]. In a May that's featured injuries to Jacob Wilson and Max Muncy, Cortes has been steady, scary and more accurate than any other A's hitter, even Nick Kurtz.

It's incredible that a guy like this can become a heavy-hitter after all this time wasting away, but this is honestly the norm now. Even with the amount of pitchers most teams use now, there's still a longer wait for many prospects to actually make the bigs, hence the amount of 29-year-old breakouts we've seen in the last year or so, including Nathan Lukes, Curtis Mead, Foster Griffin, Tristan Gray and, yes, now Cortes. You can even root this back to Joey Meneses, who became an overnight sensation with Washington at thirty. As cool as these breakouts are, the career longevity is not there because the minors has ate up 5 prime years or so, so now they're breaking out, and 30 is around the corner and...well, there's gonna be a downturn. It's why Jeff McNeil and Whit Merrifield breaking out at 27 spelled doom for their long term value, though to be fair McNeil's still doing a fine job in Sacramento at 34. 

It's also a contrast from the youth-oriented core the team has developed, though not from the noticeably older rotation that's, to be clear, working. Springs, Ginn and Civale are working on nice seasons, and while it's not the approach I expected, they're getting the job done. With Sevvy and Civale getting hurt, you are seeing a desire to bring the young guys out, and uh...hopefully Gage Jump evens out over time, because they cannot keep doing the 'GET READY FOR THE BIG A'S PITCHING PROSPECT' schtick only for them to give up 7 runs and immediately need surgery. Joe Boyle, Gunnar Hoglund, Luis Morales...shit's getting old.

The A's are still in a decent position, have no issue scoring runs and are still in the thick of the divisional race. This Yankees series has the potential to slow them down a little but they're ahead of where they usually are around this point.

Coming Tomorrow- He got out of Chicago at the right time, but is it the wrong time to be in San Diego?

Chicago Cope

 

The Blackhawks and Bulls didn't make the playoffs, the Bears don't play for a bit. For now, Chicago sports fans get to decide who gets to disappoint them in the interim. One of these Chicago teams has a high payroll, an expertly-plucked manager, a key new addition this year and some of the most impressive winning streaks of the season. The other is the Chicago White Sox. They both essentially have the same record right now. 

And I think the White Sox might honestly have the edge right now? Because the Cubs will do this thing where they win 10 games in a row and are really excited and then they lose 10 games in a row and...like, what was the point of any of that. The White Sox are as inconsistent and up-and-down as any middle of the road team, and they're not really pretending they're anything they're not. They've had a lucky stretch as of late, they're in 2nd in the AL Central, ahead of the Tigers and Royals who've both had terrible months. 

This season, the White Sox actually have some palpable star performances, rather than 'people who are doing slightly better than average'. Munetaka Murakami has 20 home runs, 41 RBIs, and...79 strikeouts but that's less important. Davis Martin is a genuine pitching gem right now, he's 8-1 with a 2 ERA. It takes a lot to have 8 wins through 2 months on a middle of the road team like the White Sox, but Martin's got enough in the tank to make it work. Even Miguel Vargas, who I've written off like three different times now, has an .831 OPS, 12 homers and 31 RBIs. It's a very nice run for the corner infielder who seems to have finally hit his stride in Chicago. And then Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci and Randal Grichuk are all filing in behind them with terrific seasons and great offensive skill. I knew a lot of these answers would click eventually but this is a very sure, very accurate version of this team. 

And on top of all that they keep bringing up surefire hits. They just threw Rikuu Nishida, a Japanese-born, U.S. based outfielder, into the mix and he's already a defensive favorite. And they just brought up David Sandlin, dealt by Boston for a bag of chips so that's ANOTHER White Sox star you can thank the Red Sox for, he went 6 innings and all he gave up was a solo homer for his debut. They're figuring more stuff out, and getting more and more confident.

Whereas the Cubs...have basically all the pieces for a competitive, division-clinching team...yet can't stay lucky with them.

I dunno if PCA cursing out the Sox fan was the turning point but it can't have helped. It's not that Pete Crow Armstrong's having a bad season per se, as he's an asset in the outfield and on the base paths, but that .677 OPS for a star player just illuminates how people are turning on the guy. This villain arc has allowed people to go 'maybe he's just not that good'. Cause at least when Alex Bregman gets in an argument with a fan on twitter, he remembers to hit .300 and knock 30 long balls or something. But PCA, as valuable as he is in terms of WAR, is a .224 hitter who leads the team in strikeouts, and it's wild that because of his multi-tool prowess that's not a dealbreaker anymore. He's not Taylor Walls bad, but he's verging on it.

The rotation's caved in a bit without Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera and Matt Boyd, plus Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have had some rough stretches of late. And then you call on Jordan Wicks for the first time in a year, he gets lit up. This looked like a great rotation in March, and it's not coming together. For all that this team is hitting, and they very much are, the injury troubles with the pitching staff have deadened the attack, and have neutralized them at a moment where the Brewers, and to a lesser extent the Cardinals, aren't as put off. 

In the Cubs' defense, they have been finishing off the Pirates quite a bit lately, and seem to be working their way back up. They're giving Ben Brown more of a workload, including some starts, and they're coasting on an incredible run from Ian Happ. They'll likely be fine in the long run. But this month, especially the crosstown series, pointed out how much trouble they could be in this year. They've been getting caught sleeping late the past few years, and this year they need to ensure a different outcome. 

Coming Tonight: The Mets got tired of waiting. The A's jumped at the ideal timing. Be like the A's.

Sale On

 

Since joining the NL for the first time in 2024, Chris Sale has yet to finish a season with an ERA higher than 2.60. His Cy Young season in '24 had a 2.38 ERA. Through 11 2026 games, he has a 2.01 ERA. All of this on what the Red Sox assumed was borrowed time.

Not that it's been enjoyable as of late, but if you wanted to check how the returns for Sale are doing in Boston right now, well...Vaughn Grissom's not even in Boston. He's currently a utility guy in Anaheim. Meaning once again, the Red Sox traded a big piece for prospects that couldn't even stick around long enough to help them do anything. No wonder the fans want John Henry to sell. 

Though we all thought the Jack McDowell comparisons would do him in, Chris Sale has become one of the most reliable pitchers of the 'K-or-nothing' era of baseball. This year, Sale's on track to reach 2700 career strikeouts, and his career ERA still sits below 3. He's also on pace to crack 60 career WAR, and he recently notched his 150th career win. Obviously nobody can do what Nolan Ryan did and overthrow for 25 years anymore, but Sale has maintained so much success just by consistently whizzing past people. So far he has 80 Ks this year, and on a Braves team where the next-nearest strikeout artist is trying to stay healthy and the other two everyday guys are leverage/control guys who don't throw hard, it's positively refreshing. The 2025 Braves went in banking on the high-speed guy like Sale, and then Schwellenbach and Lopez got hurt, Sale missed a third of the season and it was up to Holmes and Elder to keep the lights on. Now that the approach has been altered and it's less geared around the overthrowing, Sale can just do what he does and there's plenty of fallbacks.

The failsafes are one of the reasons the Braves are still a league superpower. Last year they got cut with their pants down because they were unprepared for the majority of the pitching staff getting hurt. Now they have swing options. J.R. Ritchie gave it a go, and while it didn't work, he was able to swing out when Strider came back. Martin Perez went from an in-camp maybe to one of the most unexpected rotation weapons in Atlanta, with a 2.70 ERA and 40 Ks in 11 games, proving he truly is the Venezuelan counterpart to Charlie Morton. Mauricio Dubon was the replacement for Ha-Seong Kim at short, and Dubon's been so good even after Kim's return that the position continues to be his. The one thing they couldn't really predict was losing both Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, meaning Chadwick Tromp is now the starting catching option for the Braves, and Sandy Leon is closing in on him. If this wasn't a really good Braves team with so many other great starring performances, it'd be worrying. But Baldwin'll be back soon, and it's not breaking the team.

There's so much depth to this team, and so many successful seasons, that another star performance from Chris Sale just feels like the cherry on top. I hope they keep at it, as they really could chase the Dodgers for the league championship this year.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who was traded for Tommy Edman, who's honestly doing a much better job than he would have, and is still looking to win the trade with his new, rebuilding team.

Stat Inflation Ruined My Streak

 

Do you have any idea how much guff I've had to hear from people about how the Yankees technically aren't a good team because they only win series' against sub-.500 teams?? It's been everywhere. You know, despite the fact that multiple pieces are thriving, we have the best pitcher in the AL and we have peak Gerrit Cole back again, nah, doesn't mean anything if we can't take one more from the Jays. Y'know, if it hadn't rained last week we'd have finished the series with the Rays while we were getting hot and killed the narrative. But now it's gotta persist. Exhausting.

Because, honestly, this team doesn't suck. The bullpen can be infuriating, and David Bednar's blown some saves, but we're in most of these games. We're just unlucky right now given the opportunity. 

Ultimately, the core of this lineup is enough to keep me confident. Judge has been cold the last few weeks but he still has 17 homers and 34 RBIs, plus that insane walk-off last week. What's wild is that Cody Bellinger's outhitting him. Not that it's a huge shock, Bellinger's awesome and we know what he can do, but I didn't think he'd outdo Judge at the plate. Right now Bellinger's got a .271 average and 36 RBIs, plus 8 homers and 13 doubles. We knew last year how nice of a fit Belli was, and he's continuing his excellent progress by taking more initiative and being THE guy in more games. The Mark Teixeira comparisons are kinda there, the big contract to supplant the preexisting core, but Bellinger's looking to have a bit more career legs than Tex. And considering that one of these guys is looking forward to election day and the other is looking forward to 420...they couldn't be more different honestly.

This team has also seen the return of Anthony Volpe, hitting .257 with 7 RBIs in 11 games. He seems a bit more accurate than when we last left him, and though platooning him with Caballero is a safe bet, a long-awaited breakout would also be pretty helpful. Benchwise, this team has Amed Rosario and Paul Goldschmidt both being extremely useful, and now we have Max Schuemann being a surprising source of contact prowess. Shame Spencer Jones didn't work out this year though.

And at the same time, Cam Schlittler is still elite, Ryan Weathers and Will Warren can still stay in late and keep runs down, and Gerrit Cole has no earned runs and 12 Ks in his first 2 games back. It's safe to say this guy is back, and he's definitely his old self. I think it worked out that Cole and Rodon switched right in when Fried and Gil got hurt. We have Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Lagrange down there in case anything else happens. Then again, Elmer is beginning to look a lot like July trade bait. I made the mistake of getting attached to Jhony Brito, I'm hesitant now.

I still think the Yanks are in good shape, and I especially think so after this Royals series. The A's are next, and we've routinely had some trouble with them, but hopefully we can continue our recent dominance and flip the narrative. 

Coming Tonight: I feared his career was over just 2 years ago. In reality, he was getting ready for one hell of a second act. 

Overdrive

 

Shohei Ohtani, for the first time since...I wanna say 2020 or so, is putting up positively human numbers at the plate. Human for Ohtani is still nebulous for most other ballplayers, but there is a palpable downward step from 2025, he's hitting .269 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs. Very normal, very unassuming, not a heck of a lot setting up apart from his contemporaries at the plate. Still a needed hitter with great power instincts, but it's not the pace that got him over 50 long balls the last few years.

Which means it's a good thing he's having his best season to date as a pitcher. 

The last time Ohtani felt this untouchable on the mound, it was 2022, and he went 15-9 with a 2.23 ERA and 219 Ks, enough to get him second in the MVP voting [but because he didn't hit 62 homers he couldn't lap the favorite]. Now he seems even better. In 9 starts he has a 5-2 record with a 0.82 ERA and 61 Ks. Pure dominance on so many levels, without overexerting himself. In fact, last night Ohtani went 6 innings without allowing a hit, only allowing a run on some sacrifice plays. That someone that dangerous as a hitter can also pitch scoreless frames and master the other side of the game, arguably more than the hitting right now, is insanely impressive.

On the heels of that is the fact that the Dodgers' bullpen has been exceptional this month, with little to no run bleeding from stalwarts like Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Kyle Hurt and Edgardo Henriquez. Despite the amount they paid for another lost Edwin Diaz season, they've built a working model that completely outdoes their 2025 model of hoping the extra starters can do long relief. It eviscerates one of the real marks against them from last year, and it gives them yet another leg up on the competition.

Shohei Ohtani is also just the best starter in this rotation right now, and that's taking into consideration Justin Wrobleski's swell, Yamamoto's usual brilliance and the surprise smash that is Eric Lauer. I am beginning to get worried that the potential for yet another Philadelphia Cy Young win will be foiled by a candidate who regularly wins things. I'm miffed about Zack Wheeler losing all those times, and I still think Cristopher Sanchez deserved another look last year. Now Sanchie's on an unprecedented run and I'm not even sure if that'll be enough to stop the writers from giving awards to Ohtani. Not that he doesn't deserve it, it's just...hasn't he gotten enough stuff by now?

The Dodgers still look like a league giant, have Andy Pages and Freddie Freeman surging, and have no trouble keeping the Padres down, in many cases getting other teams to do the dirty work for them. Even with the usual pitching injuries, and a few crucial lineup injuries [Betts and Teoscar], this team isn't slowing down, and still has lots of strength on display. It's a wee bit boring, but even I can appreciate it.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Dodgers lineup standout, now in a crucial role in opposition to LA's dynasty.

Patience Occasionally Pays Off

 

The Mariners promoted Colt Emerson a few weeks ago, and Emerson's been taking the majority of reps at third in the wake of yet another Brendan Donovan injury. You can tell the Mariners have faith in Emerson because they traded their other infield prospect, Ben Williamson, to make room for him, and so far that seems to be a good move on their part. Emerson's currently hitting .222 with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in 9 games. It's not immediately showing Emerson's high ceiling numbers, but if the Mariners' gameplan over the last few years has taught us anything, it's that they can afford to wait a little while.

Look at Cole Young, who was honestly inessential in his midyear callup last year. They brought him in to be a better choice at 2nd, he...sort of was, but didn't hit. Now, with another few months under his belt in the majors, he's figured a ton more out, with a more pronounced contact game, complete with 10 doubles and 23 RBIs, and some excellent defense at 2nd. He's been one of the most confident pieces of the lineup thus far, and in a season without Cal Raleigh's better numbers, that's worth a ton. Young wasn't an immediate smash in Seattle, but the Mariners didn't give up on him. Same with Emerson Hancock, who regularly brought up the rear of the five man rotation; Hancock's now a surer, more consistent starter, with a 2.78 ERA and 63 Ks in 11 games. He might honestly have the best line of any of the five right now, which is kinda insane. 

The waiting approach also applies to some of their acquisitions. J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone and Victor Robles hadn't completely hit their potential yet when they were traded, yet they've all found pivotal roles in this lineup. Crawford's still a welcome contact hitter, and though he's a little less accurate than usual he's still got 7 home runs. Canzone is the fun bench/DH bat whose power boosts have been welcome this year. Robles is still a great help defensively in the outfield, and he can hit .300 to boot. I'd even through Luke Raley in this category, because the Rays didn't get a ton of use out of him but in Seattle he's become one of the most reliable sources of power. Dude's got 11 home runs so far. 

The inverse of this is the guys the Mariners lose their patience with typically don't have a ton left afterwards. Kyle Lewis's peak WAS in Seattle, and after that season he barely touched the majors. Jarred Kelenic just got DFA'd by Chicago, proving the Mariners were right to give up on him. Easton McGee also hasn't really recovered from the injury he suffered right after his Mariners debut. They just seem to know when to pull the trigger and when to hold off.

Thanks to a strong series against the A's, the Mariners are momentarily back in first and hoping to build on the narrow lead. They've got Julio hitting, the rotation's looking surer than before and the wins are coming more frequently than they were in April. I think they can hold this for a little while, but the amount of time it took them to get here is slightly concerning. 

Coming Tonight: I was reminded the other day that this guy's been in the majors for nine years now. It's no less wild than it was in 2018. 

A Matter of Thrust

 

2026 has seen a lot of potential purveyors of 'new school' MLB thinking, guys like Blake Butera and Tony Vitello who have a younger, more advanced approach to building a winning team. And you hope that there can finally be a new breed of five-steps-ahead manager who can revolutionize how people think about running a team. I think about what Stephen Vogt's done in Cleveland, and how he's turned that team into a run production machine. Kevin Cash counts, all the analytics is driving the bus rather than contracts. Perhaps Darren McCaughan also fits. 

But one of the main reasons I want there to be a new breed of managers is because there's still a handful of them who are living too far in the past. I thought getting rid of Tony LaRussa was gonna help this. Now I'm fearing there's still some of this 'pro-decorum' energy about.

The Giants, for reference, have this outfield thrust they do when they win games. And it's Harrison Bader, Jung Hoo Lee and Drew Gilbert mostly, they do this hug-thrust thing when they win. Tony Vitello seems to be fine with it. Let 'em have fun. Well, Abner Uribe of the Brewers does this triple-crotch thing when he strikes out the side the other day, and it's full on reliever dominance stuff. And then after the game, Pat Murphy's going 'well, that's not how we do things here'. 

I can never tell where the line's gonna be with these guys. It's just a thrust, it's not like he assaulted someone, and even then he'd probably keep his job anyway. Pat Murphy's doing the whole 'this is the way things are done' schtick that I hated when LaRussa did it. And it's not like Murphy's comparable to LaRussa in that many other ways. Murph was taking pancakes out of his pocket last year. How is that 'the way things ought to be done'?? I'm pretty sure they're meant to go on a plate. I dunno what upscale restaurant Pat Murphy's going to, where the waiters put the pancakes directly in your pockets, but if that's The Way We Do Things Round Here than why not get silly and go 'your mum' when you strike a guy out, or whatever the hell Uribe's doing? Who's he hurting? 

So now you're gonna have Abner Uribe out there, stock serious at gunpoint, afraid to have fun. This is what got Yermin Mercedes run out of the leave, cause some old codger with a superiority complex told him The Way Things Are Meant to Be Done, regardless of any, ahem, difference in background or heritage. Carlos Estevez does the 'I am about to pulverize you like the man from the anime' stance every time he notches a save- nobody starts a shit-fit. He's not literally going 'I am going to pulverize you', just like Abner Uribe isn't actually saying he's gonna perform any lewd acts on anybody. The Way Things Ought to Be Done is just a gatekeeping tool men of a certain generation use to prevent anyone from reaching their level of success. Pat Murphy's committed to a lot of new school tactics, but this could be costly.

And it takes the sting out of a really excited, and varied, Brewers team, succeeding as very few [including me] knew they would. Losing Freddy Peralta hurt, but Miz and Harrison have been incredible, and have instilled a rotation stability that many thought was still a few years away. And yes, Logan Henderson's hurt again, but look at Coleman Crow filling in for him. They're being VERY careful with his service time, but he's succeeding at the MLB level. The team is hitting, and William Contreras is hitting .308 with 33 RBIs, which is a very strong stat for a catcher. Turang, Bauers, Chourio, Yelich and Mitchell are all following behind. And when not being yelled at by a manager, Abner Uribe's working out in the ninth, with 5 saves already. The interesting bit about this team is how many former starting options, like Aaron Ashby, D.L. Hall, Carlos Rodriguez and Shane Drohan, are working better as relief pieces than they would have been otherwise. A variation on the Dodgers' 'whatever you do don't hand the ball to a reliever' strategy from last fall [which has subsided to reveal a pretty fantastic bullpen actually].

The Brewers are a great team hitting their stride. The last thing they need is random decorum BS to bring them down, much like the 2021 White Sox were brought down by theirs. Hopefully good prevails here.

Coming Tomorrow- In 2025, the reaction to his presence in the Mariners' lineup was '...you're absolutely right, Leo Rivas IS the better option'. Now, he's finally delivering what he was supposed to. 

Mass Production

 

The modern Guardians teams, with their contact-first, contracts-later approach, always have this way of surprising me. I can never tell who's gonna be the guy that takes over and picks up the brunt of the work. If you'll remember, Jose Ramirez was like that, he went from a guy who was taking some reps at third to a powerful contact hitter to someone who will retire as a Cleveland Guardian and get a statue at the Jake. Brayan Rocchio was like that, he became an infield standout, then stunk for a year and is now a true standout again. This is just what they do.

On a team featuring Jose Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins, Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo, the guy who leads the Guardians in home runs is Angel Martinez, a left-fielder in the midst of a breakout season, with 9 long balls and 27 RBIs. Right now Martinez has a higher OPS than Ramirez, and though his last week has been a bit slower, he's still an exciting, productive player. 

And the great thing about this team is that if someone like Martinez is slowing down, someone else can pick back up. Recently Daniel Schneemann has been getting hot, and he's been making some incredible leaping catches in the outfield. Kyle Manzardo's power numbers have slowly picking up, and he's been given more prime moments to shine. Rhys Hoskins has 5 homers, including one against his former team. And the biggest revelation of the season so far has been Travis Bazzana, the former #1 overall pick who's taken to the bigs with ease, hitting .292 with 3 homers, 10 RBIs and 7 stolen bases in his first 25 games. If this is the degree of excellence we can expect from the 23-year-old as he continues in the majors, the Guardians are gonna be fine.

That's very much the theme of this season, as even if they lose people, and even if they can't contend financially with the Tigers and Royals, they have the infrastructure to outlast everybody. Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are a very formidable core rotation foursome, with each bringing something very important to the table. Williams is having the best overall season, and he completely shut down the Phils the other night, but Messick might be the most dominant pitcher, with his expert pitch placement and low-speed craftsmanship. And Cade Smith happens to lead the league in saves with 18, despite a few of the issues that plagued him last year still persisting. 

This is an extremely good-looking Guardians team, with so many failsafes baked in and so many elements working. Undeniably they're one of the top two teams in the AL right now, and definitely one of the best teams in baseball, and they're doing this without breaking the bank or breaking the game. I'm not saying I need a Guardians-Dodgers World Series to make the point clear, but it'd be way more fun than a Rays-Dodgers Series.

Coming Tonight: If the Braves don't give up on this guy, they don't get Drake Baldwin. Or...maybe they just don't get his defensive catching numbers.

Juan Down...

 

Juan Soto really got sent out of Washington on a rail, got out of San Diego before they downturned, went to one World Series with the Yankees and decided that his best way of getting another championship ring would be...signing with the Mets. 

...who missed the playoffs last year and are now last in the NL East and divebombing further. That suite's gotta be nice though, right?

Here is the sad truth about this Mets team right now: Lindor, Robert, Alvarez and Polanco are hurt, as are Holmes and Senga. Bichette and Semien have been disappointments on many levels, Vientos is struggling, and we're already into 'operation bring up more rookies'. A.J. Ewing, Nick Morabito, Carson Benge and Jonah Tong are getting a ton of playing time. The Mets tried this strategy last year, only it was around August. That we're already trying 'just bring up the rookies' IN MAY...that's not a good sign.

All of this to say that the only thing on this team that's anywhere near as-advertised is Juan Soto. He's hitting .294 with 10 homers and 21 RBIs, he's missed some time due to little stuff but is still very much the beating heart of this lineup. I can already tell you that this is not what Soto wanted. He wanted to be part of a like-minded unit that could build each other up and work together to be the best. You know, like the 2019 Nationals. Trouble is, the 2019 Nationals weren't bought, they were built over time. Contracts did help, yes, like Scherzer and Strasburg, but the key figures were homegrown. Rendon, Soto, Turner, Zim, Robles, etc. This team, it's almost all contracts, and they're almost all struggling. The homegrown elements are trying to take the team back, but they're either not well-established yet or they're hurt. Francisco Alvarez has been in position to get going for YEARS, and he keeps getting hurt the moment it would be most appropriate. Luis Robert finally has an opportunity to do well for a competitor, and he immediately gets hurt. 

And so the 2026 Mets right now are leading with Soto, Bichette...Luis Torrens, M.J. Melendez, Brett Baty and A.J. Ewing. Not what was advertised.

Even the rotation feels a little like a cheap compromise. Nolan McLean's doing the best he can, but he's not Jacob deGrom; even with 75 Ks and a 1.092 WHIP, he's got a 4.40 ERA and 30 earned runs in 62 innings. Freddy Peralta's got a 3.52 ERA, much higher than anticipated, and is more human than ever. Peterson's back to how he was, with a 5 ERA and some bullpen-relegated stretches. Clay Holmes WAS doing a bang-up job, but then he got hurt and no one knows when he'll be back. It's just a weak effort from people who were in position to really deliver something.

And yes, it is only May, and great teams have come back from worse. But the Mets have often built something in June and lost it two months later. If they already look lost now, how likely is it for them to find themselves by September? Yes, 2024 happened, but there was arguably more setup to that run than what would be a spontaneous flip of the switch for this year. It's still technically possible, but they need to collectively decide to control the narrative and end this disaster. Because Juan Soto's gonna be a Met for the next decade or so, and if this is how things are starting out...he may want to try a different market.

Coming Tomorrow- The Guardians' wheel of contact player development has landed on this guy, and now he's become a fun breakout in a season chock full of them in Cleveland.

That's One Way to Debut

 

Imagine, for a second, that you have just been called up to the major leagues. The day you are up with the team, ready to debut out of the bullpen, your team is no-hitting the Texas Rangers. Keep in mind, the already came close to doing this earlier this month, Spencer Arrighetti had something going, but it didn't work out. Now a much less trustworthy pitcher's gone 6 strong, handed it to Steven Okert who went 1 strong...and now they are handing the ball to you. Your debut appearance will be attempting to complete a combined no-hitter in not only the away team's park...but the cross-state rival's park. So if you mess this up, it could haunt you for the rest of your life.

This was the conundrum put upon Alimber Santa last night in Arlington. 7 no-hit innings, now here you go. And then after 1 inning, the pitching coach tells you to stay out there. Josh Hader's still hurt, Bryan Abreu's not trustworthy, you're it. So now you have to face the top of the order in the bottom of the ninth and hope you get out of there with your dignity intact. 

Damn if Santa didn't handle it like a pro. 2 innings, 6 batters, all retired. And thus he gets to be the hero in his first MLB game ever. That's incredible. It's great for Tatsuya Imai, finally getting the hang of things over here, and for the oft-injured Okert, but Alimber Santa had to feel over the moon. This is the Astros in a nutshell, it's a well-oiled machine, and the people coming up, whoever they are, can probably inherit it. 

Obviously it's a little bit funny how Houston's still the no-no capital of baseball. They tried to stat twist, 'this is their first no-hitter since 2024'. Here's what you should have said. 'The Houston Astros have had a no-hitter in every season since 2022, except for 2025. They've had FIVE no-hitters in the past five seasons, one of them in the World Series. Hell, Christian Vasquez, who caught this one...he'd caught one BEFORE for the Astros! He caught the one in Game 4 of the World Series! So this isn't even new to him! 

Five no-hitters in 5 years- the Blue Jays haven't even thrown one since 1990! The Guardians haven't thrown one since 1981! Parker Messick got painstakingly close recently, and losing that one hurt. Don't give me that 'first since 2024' bullshit. 

It's very cool that this happened, and it's even cooler for Imai and Santa to be a part of this so early in their MLB careers. I'd love for some teams other than the Astros to figure out how to go all 9 without a hit. Cause without the Santa stat, it's hard to get excited about another Astros no-hitter. 

A Lot Changes in Ten Years

 

In 2016, Willson Contreras was called up to act as an alternative to Miguel Montero behind the plate, at least on days where David Ross wasn't catching for Jon Lester. It was, in actuality, the last necessary piece to cement a lineup that would propel the Cubs to a World Series, one they would FINALLY win. Contreras used that season as a starting point, and eventually became one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, retaining his dignity until 2022, and eventually leaving to play for the division rivals in St. Louis. 

Now, Contreras has a different role, as first baseman on a team vastly different from the 2016 Cubs. The 2026 Red Sox do have a lot of great young players, and a lineup on the verge of greatness...but they're still a last place team, and they're still relying on Contreras's offense as a main asset rather than as one of many standouts. In 2016, Contreras could be a cog in a machine and let Rizzo, Bryant, Fowler, Schwarber and Baez have heroic moments. Now, when Anthony, Mayer, Duran and Yoshida don't have things rolling, it's up to Contreras more often than not. The balance has shifted. 

I thought it was really cool earlier this month, though, to see Willson Contreras reunited with Jon Lester, as the latter was inducted into Sox Hall of Fame. Lester in 2016 was the ten year veteran, the World Series winner, the ace coming to town to jumpstart a new regime. Lester had all the respect in the world when he came to Chicago, and he wanted to win that third ring with a new team. And so it would be done. Now, Willson is the ten year veteran coming to town in an effort to jumpstart something. And so it was really fitting that Contreras got to give a hug to Lester after his ceremony. The passing of the mantle, as it was.

Contreras is currently hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, pretty exceptional power numbers for the big guy. His OPS is .899, the best in Boston currently. And while it might not be the most exceptional season by a member of the Contreras family, Willson's is a very sure and confident barrage of power, surer than he's been since 2019. Now, as a first baseman, he can appear in more games, and last year he came the closest to 100 RBIs of any season thus far, with 80. He's never had a 25 homer year, which is kind of insane, and perhaps this is the year that changes.

The Sox themselves are still struggling to live up to expectations. The young kids, Early and Tolle, are making up a lot of ground that Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello should have covered by now. Jarren Duran's still hitting .193, and if you can believe it, Caleb Durbin's hitting worse. Story's 2025 resurgence may have been a one-off. It's not a terribly engaging team, and yesterday I saw my first 'where Aroldis Chapman might be heading this July' article. Having Contreras is certainly better than the alternative, but hopefully he stays long enough to not have to be as essential as he is right now. 

Coming Tonight: Speaking of people who really shouldn't be as essential as they are right now, for teams that shouldn't be as bad as they are right now, a guy making more money than you, and for good reason.

The Latent #1

 

Ooooh, I bet you thought that just because they restructured the draft lottery rules, that meant that the Rockies wouldn't have a #1 overall guy surfacing this year. Think again! They've got Mickey Moniak. True, THEY didn't draft him first overall [the Phillies did], but it's better than nothing.

And yes, as far as 1st overall picks go, Mickey Moniak is around the mid-to-bottom tier, and he knows it. Not the absolute bottom, because...Brady Aiken and Mark Appel and Bryan Bullington exist, but he's entered into the tier of 'letdown that's still capable of a late-20s surge. You saw what happened with Tim Beckham out of nowhere, how he started hitting homers with Baltimore. And how Matt Bush crashed out then eventually became a likable relief option with the Rangers. Even guys like Phil Nevin, Adrian Gonzalez, Kris Benson and, yes, Josh Hamilton needed to set the expectations a bit before they had their breakouts. 

Not everyone is gonna be like Griffey or Strasburg and Skenes and be incredible right from the start. Sometimes you get a Mickey Moniak, who takes an extra three years to develop, gets hurt the second he has a shot with the team that drafted him, is traded for a rental the same day that team gets a centerfielder they actually CAN trust [from the same team!!], dries out in mediocrity for a year, gets cut, winds up playing for the worst team in the league AND THEN, SUDDENLY, BECOMES GOOD. Make 'em work for it!

Moniak, though sidelined for a little bit with an injury, has surfaced fully in Denver, because that's what becomes of all power hitters once thought lost. It honestly surprises me that Colorado parted with Blaine Crim so easily; yes, T.J. Rumfield's a better working option, but Crim seemed so at home in Coors Field. Moniak has that same feeling, he's hitting .280 with 12 homers and 28 RBIs. At the moment he does lead the team in long balls, but Hunter Goodman's heating up, and he's got 11 right now. Moniak is 28, and the heights that were once assumed for him have come down, but he's still a pretty nice hitter with some defensive perks, and the Rockies need a guy like that right now, as they begin to assemble the next stage of the rebuild.

Right now, they've got slightly surer footing than before. Goodman and Rumfield are locked in, Tovar's been struggling but he's still great at short. Karros is more serviceable than anything but he's becoming more sure of himself. I think Troy Johnston's more of a placeholder guy, a good contact walloper in the tradition of Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger, without much defensive ability. A shame Beck, Doyle and Ritter haven't done much, as well as Zac Veen still in the minors. Freeland and Quintana's last few starts have ballooned their ERAs, and now Dollander's hurt, but Tomoyuki Sugano's been keeping things down and still has an ERA under 4. The bullpen's solidified but very snakebitten so far. 

As of right now they're still a last place team, but the Rockies arguably have more of a spark than the Giants at rest. This dismal May stretch just hasn't done them any favors, and they're now at 20-34, which is more in line with how things were the last few years. I still think an improvement is imminent, but they need to get past this month and get back to how surprising they were in April.

Coming Tomorrow- Moving to 1st base isn't for everyone, but after a couple seasons he's fully adjusted and is now focusing more on pure power damage. 

Somebody's Got to Be Last

 

In 2024, the White Sox were not just bad, they were legendarily bad. In 2025, the Rockies were similarly awful. So...is it possible that 2026's last place team will just be a normal, regular old bad team. No 'worst team ever' stuff? Because right now, I don't think the Rockies are the worst team in baseball, I don't think the White Sox are anywhere near the worst team in baseball...and even if they're 30th of 30...the Angels aren't even an interesting kind of terrible.

Like, okay, what do they have. Their best pitcher's Jose Soriano, who's having a Cy Young caliber age-27 season, with a 6-3 record, a 2.44 ERA and 74 Ks. He might not be an Angel in August, guys. I don't see why they wouldn't try to trade him. And yes, it'd lead them with a rotation consisting of Reid Detmers, Jack Kochanowicz, Grayson Rodriguez, Walbert Ureña and, eventually, Yusei Kikuchi, but they've come back from worse. Besides, isn't it fun that they've got a guy named Walbert? Nobody's named Walbert!

Their best hitter is Mike Trout, who, despite only hitting .239, has 12 homers and 25 RBIs. The lower sample size is due to having 47 walks, which should be your indication that he's back. Nobody walked him when he wasn't hitting. They also are getting a pretty decent year out of Zach Neto, who's got 10 homers and 24 RBIs despite 73 Ks, which makes him one of 4 Angels with over 50 Ks. Neto's still looking like a foundational piece for this team, but I also said that about David Fletcher, Taylor Ward and Jared Walsh and Trout outlasted them all. 

Beyond that, a lot of the lineup plan is already being crumpled and tossed. Moncada's hurt [as he tends to be], so the backups, namely Vaughn Grissom, Adam Frazier and Donovan Walton, are covering third. Josh Lowe didn't work, so they're going with Jose Siri and Wade Meckler in left, and both are...doing alright so far. Oswald Peraza's actually been pretty brilliant covering second, he's displayed all the contact wonder that the Yankees had zero room for. Nolan Schanuel, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler have had decent moments but all are struggling at various other facets. You look at the gameplan for last season and barely any of it's shown up this year. Where's Karen Paris? Where's Christian Moore? What about Caden Dana and Sam Aldegheri, weren't they supposed to be the next starting guns back in 2024? Even the Alek Manoah publicity stunt bombed. That guy might just be cooked, which is pretty upsetting. 

It's really frustrating to look around this team that's been trying to build something for so long and see no immediate future. It can't just be Trout, the Angels have been trying to look beyond Trout for a decade now. But, this is where they are. And as they remain in last, they need to start being honest with themselves. Soriano's probably gonna go...Trout might need to as well, sad to say. And then they can actually focus on a full rebuild, which has worked with the White Sox. If it hasn't occurred to them yet, that's on them.

Coming Tonight: Ironically the guy the Angels cut last year, who's now having a bounce back year in THE place to bounce back.

Biscuits and Gravy

 

Since April 28th, when the Cardinals were just 14-13, they have gone 14-8. There was some talks of 'look at them streaking a bit', but...aside from a few losses, it doesn't tell me that much is different. They're 8 games over .500, but for a team that's that statistically thriving it's a very commonplace run of things. Not a lot of double digit wins, not a lot of double digit losses, not a lot of blowouts. Just sort of pedaling fast enough, staying in second and avoiding the Cubs as they plummet back downwards. I can't really tell you too much about this team's full season prospects right now, cause they're GOOD...but there's still limitations.

Like...we've gotta be honest with ourselves, this rotation is far too mediocre for the amount of wins this team has. Other than Michael McGreevy, none of them are really doing anything. Kyle Leahy's evened out with more innings even after a rough start, but May's struggling, Liberatore gets lit up more often than not, and Andre Pallante is, again, inoffensive if nothing else. Bullpen's not much better, it's really the Gordon Graceffo show with a lot of okay showings from the rest. Riley O'Brien has 13 saves and a 3.13 ERA, I guess that counts as good this season. I dunno, I haven't really heard much about good closing pitching this year apart from Mason Miller. I guess that's good? Maybe?

Either way none of it matters because this offense has been crazy. I can say with the pitching 'yeah, this isn't really second place material', but I can't say that about the lineup. It took YEARS, but Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, J.J. Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn and Nathan Church represent a very strong young core. And YOUNG is the key word, as the whole lineup's under 28. Bryan Torres had a huge moment earlier today, and he's a 28 year old rookie. A rookie...who is older than the entire rest of the lineup. Imagine that. Unlike some other teams, 'young' doesn't mean 'inexperienced' here, and Winn, Burelson and Herrera feel like vets.

Burleson in particular is handling the power numbers handily, with 7 homers and 34 RBIs, plus 54 hits and 12 doubles, with a .290 average. He just feels surer of himself than he has in prior years, and his bat is that much more valuable on a team without a Goldschmidt or an Arenado. The same can honestly be said for Jordan Walker, who FINALLY works as a proven power hitter, with 13 homers and 35 RBIs. Imagine if he just keeps doing this consistently? After all that time struggling to? That'd be the twist ending of the century. My one worry is the lack of real depth with this lineup, as we're finding out now that Church is hurt and the nearest fill-in is Thomas Saggese and his .159 average. There's more immediate pitching depth than hitting depth, which is helpful considering the lack of pitching identity, but you're gonna need both to leg a full season out.

The Cardinals do have enough hitting to keep them in second, but the Cubs aren't gonna sink forever, which should indicate that they're not gonna CRUISE forever. Works both ways. 

Coming Tomorrow- Beyond Mike Trout, there is him, trying to build a bridge to the next chapter. We'll see if he lasts long enough to get that to happen. 

Surviving on Witt Alone?

 

The good news is the Royals are ahead of the Tigers in the standings. The bad news is they're in fourth. 

It's clear, a couple years removed from the season where the Royals nearly chased the Yankees and went all in, that the infrastructure for this Royals team was imperfect. Relying on a bunch of pitchers that weren't always reliable shouldn't have been the plan. Obviously Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Cameron and Bubic could come together in spurts, or on their own, for greatness but getting them all to be healthy and thriving at the same time has been a challenge. Right now, Wacha's pitching well, Lugo's pitching well, Cameron's getting hit a lot [he was good last night though], and Bubic and Ragans are hurt. And it's not like Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila are doing badly per se in covering for them, but the strength of the compact unit is not there. The weight is on Wacha right now and it shouldn't be. It should really be on Cameron but apparently a year in the majors has done damage on his throwing arm. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg is still covering the ninth for Carlos Estevez, and while he's got 11 saves I still think he's just better off as a setup man.

The lineup infrastructure is marginally better but I think everyone assumed Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Isaac Collins and Jonathan India would mean more to this team than they have. You have a guy like the Pasquatch, being the character that he is, and you expect some modicum of success. The dude's hitting .184. I root for the guy, because you can't not, but he only seems to succeed when the pressure's off. Massey still hasn't put together a solid enough full season effort, he's hitting .217. Isaac Collins's sophomore effort, yes he's only a sophomore, is a .215 season with middling defense. All of these guys are 28, by the way. Not that the window's completely closed, as Bobby Witt is 26 after all, but it's closING. 

And yes, this team does have some youth, but it hasn't locked all the way in yet. Carter Jensen is a solid power hitter but the team is afraid to let him catch. This team has SALVADOR PEREZ, who is 36 and not his old self, and they're afraid to let Jensen catch. Cause Perez is at least a solid enough framer who can call out the umps' BS in the age of the ABS. He's only hitting .211, but he's got 8 home runs, which leads the team. I still hope this team can eventually bring up a catcher who's good at defense AND can hit, and isn't just one or the other. M.J. Melendez was not the guy, I worry Jensen isn't either. Jac Caglianone does seem like he's on the right track though, with 5 homers and 10 RBIs, plus a .750 OPS, which is the second-highest on this team. That's...frightening. But Cags is still looking like the exact kind of piece the Royals hoped he was. This adds to the already strong Maikel Garcia, trying to build off his 2025, hitting .255 and trying to get hotter. He and Witt are doing what they can to ensure this isn't completely forgettable.

I can't completely count the Royals out, because I can't completely count the Tigers out and if I counted the Royals out too it'd be hypocritical. It's just looking very uninspired right now. But the way this division is looking, it's still not completely decided.

Coming Tomorrow- A big, beefy power bat for a team already surprising a lot of people.

Life Begins at 30

 

2026's rookie class is gonna be one of the strangest in some time. In addition to the J.J. Wetherholt, Konnor Griffin, Kevin McGonigle and Spencer Jones sect, people who SHOULD be debuting this year, we have Andrew Painter, who should have been up 3 years ago, and Foster Griffin, who technically had a rookie season in 2022, but didn't fulfill enough innings to meet the official requirement, then went off and pitched in Japan for 3 years, came back and seems to be the only person in the Nationals' rotation who's doing what he's supposed to. Grouping Griffin, who's THIRTY, in with that group is...odd. It's why I don't like the service time schtick that's lumped Randy Arozarena and Luis Gil into rookie categories when they honestly had the stats necessary to be counted as veterans. What Foster Griffin is doing this season isn't exactly rookie material, in the same way that what Munetaka Murakami's material isn't technically rookie material.

But...this is their first clear sample size in the MLB, so we go with it.

Griffin, through 10 starts, is 5-2 with a 4 ERA and 54 Ks. He also has a 1.179 WHIP, which is the lowest in the rotation. Aside from Cade Cavalli, who's been decent with a 3.86 ERA and 61 Ks, Griffin is head and shoulders above everyone else with a job. Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell are both failing to keep runs down, and at least with Mikolas he has the excuse that he's 37. Jake Irvin's still waterlogged from 2024 it seems, with a 5.79 ERA in 10 starts. They really should be starting Andrew Alvarez but they seem afraid to for some reason, and they're more prone to try out the opener bullshit and waste Richard Lovelady there rather than keep him for the save, which he's far better at. So much in this pitching staff makes absolutely no sense that the mere presence of a 30-year-old rookie ex-pat pitching the best out of everyone is even harder to believe.

Shame, because the lineup can actually hit this year. They've gotten to a point where if something isn't working, they do away with it, which they weren't always at liberty to do [at least with the hitting; doesn't explain why Mikolas is still here]. lady House wasn't working, so Jorbit Vivas and Luis Garcia are getting the reps at third. Joey Wiemer went cold so Dylan Crews gets another shot. The working model now includes Australian corner guy Curtis Mead manning first, and he's got 4 homers and 16 RBIs already. Daylen Lile, though lacking in triples, has 14 doubles, in addition to the 7 homers and 26 RBIs. Nasim Nunez leads the league in stolen bases with 21. Jacob Young and Jose Tena are slowly heating up. And...this team still very much belongs to James Wood and C.J. Abrams. It's not a perfect lineup, but it's got more angles than past iterations.

At least they've got that. At least they're hitting this year. Because it really is down to Foster Griffin to keep the pitching in line, and after 2024, where it looked like the future is bright with Parker, Irvin and Herz, that's insanely depressing. 

Coming Tomorrow- Last year, unexpectedly, he went from 'decent homegrown option' to 'one of the best infielders in the game'. Where's he gonna land this year?

Violent Rays

 

Nearly a decade into the Kevin Cash era of Rays baseball, we have flipped the script entirely, and now have a Rays team where the rotation is so good that it makes the team hesitant to hand it to the bullpen. Who'd have thought??

The current rotation plan, as opposed to 2018's plan of 'Blake Snell, Chris Archer, Tyler Glasnow and give it to a reliever', is a much more traditional mindset. McClanahan and Rasmussen up top, Martinez and Matz supplanting, then Jesse Scholtens with an opener. That's remarkably unconvoluted. And so far it's REALLY working. Nick Martinez is having his best season yet, he's 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 9 starts. He's not outthrowing like McClanahan and Rasmussen are [despite the fact that it IS working], but he's been dominant, and the Rays' defense has been making it easy work. Having a healthy McClanahan back also helps, he's got a 2.82 ERA, he's 5-2 and he's got 47 Ks. I still think he's trying not to exacerbate things again after missing 2 years at his peak, but it's a fine time for him to be throwing this well. And even Matz has been impressive, going 4-1 with a 3.70 ERA in 8 starts. It's a compact, solid unit of people that can just stay on as Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson make their jobs really easy.

But...the bullpen, people. Bryan Baker does have 13 saves right now, but not all of them have been pretty. That ERA reads 2.66, but it was above 4 a week or so ago. The more you look at this bullpen, the more doesn't sit right. Hunter Bigge ALONE. The man gave up 8 runs IN EXTRAS. TO THE MARLINS. Just got on there hoping for an easy inning and completely exploded. Garrett Cleavinger, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour aren't much better. Remember, the Rays gave up Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax, and Bradley's having a comeback year in Minneapolis while Jax...tries. He gives up too many walks, gets way too many batters on base and presses his luck. Even the 'better' relievers on this team don't hold a candle to the heights of this administration's pens. This is why you re-sign Pete Fairbanks, or hold onto Andrew Kittredge, or anything. But no, Ian Seymour really was the answer here. Or Mason Englert.

Again, it's a good thing the Rays are really good right now, and hitting .261 as a team with sensational contact hitting and a lot of sharp ideas fueling the fire, but seeing a Rays team with a bad bullpen just feels wrong. Like they haven't thought about what that'll do to them. And it's not like the Dodgers where they can use other starters instead of their bullpen, because they don't have Dodgers money. Not even close. 

The Rays face the Yankees tonight, and this weekend. Gerrit Cole is getting the ball tonight. Then they start next week in Baltimore. If they can get through that with their dignity intact, then we can talk.

Coming Tonight: A rookie who's my age. To any longtime readers, 10 years ago that was kinda cool. I'm now at an age where if I was a rookie in the MLB, I'd get some concerned looks. 

An Apple with a Chunk Taken Out of It

 

The Giants without Logan Webb. That's friggin weird, man. Even if he's back next week, you just don't see that often. It's a reminder of how consistent and reliable Webb could be; once he's taken away the team doesn't really have an identity. And even with Webb they kinda don't, honestly. They've been searching for an identity since Posey retired, and Posey climbing into the front office somehow hasn't helped. Right now, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Harrison Bader have less home runs than utility man Casey Schmitt, who's got 9 home runs and a .293 average while starting at DH virtually everyday. If you're gonna bring Devers, Adames and Bader here, it should not be up to Casey Schmitt to hit all the home runs.

And with an even more depleted lineup, it's even more telling when Logan Webb's gone. Cause that's one start in a week's time where through 6 or 7 innings you're good. Without him, you're pressing your luck with guys like Robbie Ray and Landon Roupp, who are good but imperfect, high ERA innings eaters like Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle, or the occasional bright future spot like Trevor McDonald whose ceiling still seems unknown. It's shakier ground than usual, and the fact that nobody's really hitting doesn't make the fact that two different pitchers have 6 losses particularly surprising. What is surprising is the strength of the bullpen right now. Matt Gage, Keaton Winn, Caleb Kilian, Joel Peguero, Sam Hentges and Ryan Borucki have all been pretty great. It's just a matter of scoring runs before they get there, and we're not really there yet.

This team has multiple guys brought in here specifically to make a difference that just aren't. Jung Hoo Lee is still maddeningly average, hitting .268 with 17 RBIs. Drew Gilbert is still not MLB ready, and neither is Bryce Eldridge or Jesus Rodriguez. Adames and Chapman are more fine than anything but we've seen them both do way better, especially by May. Devers has 6 homers and 20 RBIs, but is hitting .246 and has 61 strikeouts. The reliable accuracy of his Boston peak seems to have dissipated. Plus, without Heliot Ramos, they've taken to throwing Eric Haase in the outfield, which...isn't terrific. This team does still have Schmitt, Luis Arraez and Daniel Susac, so SOME people are hitting, but enough of the team is more okay than anything, and not in the way this team is usually okay.

And it stands out even more when the Dodgers, Padres and even the Diamondbacks are actually good this year. This is a year where the Giants looked close, and made steps to move in on the competition, but they're still here. And it's a wonder they're still in fourth given how many more Rockies are hitting right now. I know there's always time to rebound, but I'm seeing the same old stumbles even with a new regime. And a surprise breakout from Schmitt might not be enough.

Coming Tomorrow- He spent years as a depth starter turned swingman turned depth starter again. So when the Rays actually sign him with intent to start him consistently, imagine their surprise when he...became their best starter.

With Meatballs

 

So, what are the Astros without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Lance McCullers, Josh Hader or Cristian Javier? Well...beatable, for one.

It should not have taken an injury-depleted year to illuminate the desperation of this Astros team. This organization has been so good for so long at replenishing the well and keeping the firm train of young players going, but take out enough of the core and you see the team for what it is. A bunch of people who've never known a year without success, trying so hard to do the same things they've done the last seven or eight times and getting frustrated that nothing's working. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .300 with 15 homers and 31 RBIs and I think he's growing concerned that this isn't enough anymore. When you don't have Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel or even Altuve behind you, so much more is on you, and by that point the long ball isn't always enough.

Let's examine the rest of this lineup and see if we can spot the flaws. The outfield is young, which is impressive considering the rest of the lineup, but they're all honestly too young. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews and Zach Cole are all under 25, and have been tasked to keep the outfield afloat. Any help, such as Taylor Trammell, Joey Loperfido, or even the recently-activated Jake Meyers, seems ineffective. Meanwhile, Christian Vasquez is starting behind the plate everyday, and while he's doing alright for himself, he's coming off as little more than a replacement option. Same with Braden Shewmake, the former Braves prospect who made the team out of necessity, and is starting virtually everyday at 2nd. He's better than Brendan Rodgers, and is hitting .291 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in 19 games, but...is still very much a replacement option. The fact that it already feels like it's just Alvarez, Christian Walker and a bunch of scrubs isn't a great sign, especially since that's what it felt like at many points last year. Trammell was getting prime lineup space. It wasn't pretty.

The rotation's not terrific either. They're burning through starting options quickly, and are down to depth options. Peter Lambert, former Rockies prospect that I hadn't thought about in four years, has made 6 starts, and has 35 strikeouts- he's been a decent place filler. Tatsuya Imai, thought to be the kill switch in the offseason, has been awful, with an 8.31 ERA in 5 starts. It's gotten so dire that they're now stretching out former Giant Kai-Wei Teng as a starting option, and while it's sort of working so far, the fact that he may not have even been in the top 10 choices to start is pretty concerning. This is Reds levels of desperation.

Despite all of that, they have Mike Burrows and his 5.72 ERA, which...how is HE the one guy that stays healthy, and the return of Spencer Arrighetti. The man loves to strike people out, and he's been doing a lot of that so far, with 35 in 6 starts, plus a 5-1 record and a 1.50 ERA. His last start was looking like a no-hitter for a bit, until the Rangers got a hit literally the second I tuned in. In an era where the Astros can regularly be counted on for multiple young, lethal starting options, right now it's just Arrighetti. No rookies, at the moment, coming in to save the day...just replacement options. This is where we're at.

I assume that at some point people are gonna start coming back and the team will attempt to be good again, but you can only really put a bow on a team like this, you can't make it something else. The Phillies' issues at least could be fixed with a regime change. These are way more foundational, and way harder to come back from. But this is, at the end of the day, the Astros, and they do hate me, so we'll see how far they get this October.

[I'm joking, please don't actually be a playoff team this year.]

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants don't have a ton going on right now, but at least they have this guy.

Too Top-Heavy for the Bottom

 

The Pirates, more than any other team that I can currently gather, have a great deal of guys built like a transmission tower. Wide necked, large torso'd, top heavy shtarkers. Like...something I've seen in athletes that genuinely perplexes me is the kind of shoulder and chest muscle conditioning that makes you look like your neck is more of an afterthought than anything, it's more torso than neck. Takeo Spikes used to look like that, just the massive neckmonster roaming the countryside. And that's most of the Pirates right now. Konnor Griffin, Nick Gonzales, Ryan O'Hearn, Spencer Horwitz and Henry Davis just walk around looking like they're holding in their breath, they lean back and hits come flying out, and then they stand there in the locker room going '...yeahweplayedourbestoutthere...uhm...Paulcertainlygavehisall, but y'know...intheend...', etc.

I'm not implying there's cloning going on in Pittsburgh. It's rich to assume they've perfecting cloning technology when we've established that they can't even get the humidor to work. They're just getting their conditioning reps in and that seems to be helping. The Pirates are closer to good than they've been in a while. In fact, since they're over .500...they might just be...good. 

Nick Gonzales having a decent year proves this is all heading in the right direction, because he always felt like a placeholder infield guy to me, didn't really accomplish a lot. He CAN hit though, and now it seems like it's for a reason. He's hitting .318 right now with 48 hits [one less than team leader Oneil Cruz, wait WHAT??] and 19 RBIs. Yet to launch any long balls, but this team has Cruz, Ozuna and BRANDON LOWE for that. Gonzales is just a great contact guy to have around, and to see him looking well-rounded at last is a great sign. Also great to see Bryan Reynolds hitting well again, he's got 26 RBIs and 4 homers. Cruz has 10 homers and 32 RBIs despite the usual obvious flaws. And Griffin, while not a full world-beater yet, stole 10 straight bases successfully to start his career and has 20 RBIs. Those top-heavy brutes seem to be turning this team around, and with help from famed little guy Brandon Lowe and his outrageous power hitting. 

What's wild is we're beginning to see the limits of the starting pitching, which I figured would be doing most of the work by now. On Sunday the Phillies scored 5 runs off of Paul Skenes, which I did not think was possible. His ERA is now a measly 2.62, which means the Phillies and the Mets were responsible for keeping that thing above 2 pretty much. Mitch Keller is having a bit too many starts where he gives up 3 runs, and while the rest of the start is by and large fine he's just not as dominant as he was. Bubba Chandler's not the guy yet, Carmen Mlodzinski's more 'good' than great. At least Braxton Ashcraft's keeping the pace strong with a lot of innings of great work. Eventually Jared Jones is gonna get back here and level things a tad, but until then this unit just needs to rebound from a poor week and settle back in, which is still possible.

I just want the Pirates to stay above .500 and keep surprising people. The Cardinals and Cubs may have the momentum in this division, but the Pirates still have a lot going for them, and only hope to grow into themselves as we proceed.

Coming Tonight: The majority of his rotation is injured, but luckily he's fully healthy again, and surging. 

Enjoy Him While He's Here

 

The title of this does not imply that Byron Buxton would ever leave the Twins. He's said many times he wants to be a Twin for life, they want to keep him around, I can't see him playing anywhere else. The title refers to the fact that despite being one of the best pure hitters in Twins history, and a central figure of so many exciting Twins teams, Byron Buxton has never played a full 162 game season. The closest he's gotten is 140 in 2017, and 126 last year. Otherwise he rarely makes it past 100 games. He couldn't even play all 60 games of the 2020 season. There is always an injury or some scratch or something that prevents Buxton from impacting this team other than in 90 or so games.

The closest thing the Minnesota Twins to a guy who played their entire career in Minnesota and became a legend is Tony Oliva, Joe Mauer, or eventually someone like Kent Hrbek or Brad Radke. Puckett had a great career but it only lasted 12 years. Carew was terrific but left after a decade. Killebrew was a Washingtonian first. Santana left, Morneau left, Kaat and Blyleven left, etc etc. The Twins don't have an Ernie Banks or a Barry Larkin or a Cal Ripken, two decades of strong work. And what they have is good, but there's always a but. You get a top-tier hitter who excels at the game for 9 years, buuuut he gets hurt and retires in his early 30s. Or you get one of the best contact hitters of his era, but he decides he just doesn't want to play in Minneapolis after a while.

Byron Buxton has given grade-a, terrific performances...*when* he is healthy. He's only played 938 games in 12 years. He's hit 183 home runs, 459 RBIs, 812 hits. Half of his career is missing. I'm sure he'd have double those totals by now if he'd stayed healthy, and he may have even helped his team towards better postseason results, and more than that single measly postseason series win. But as is...the Twins just have an all-American hero who lifts the team whenever he is there, and is routinely extremely good. Buxton has a 31.4 WAR in that time, despite missing time, meaning when he is healthy, he's responsible for 4 or 5 wins on his own. This is the effect he has on the Twins, who've struggled the past few years.

Last season was our fullest picture in a while of Buck's full potential, and he hit 35 homers and 83 RBIs. At 32 years old, he's still got some peak energy left, and is trying to do everything he can to perform at this level before his body refuses to left him. So far this season, Buxton's post-30 upswing has continued, with 15 home runs, 23 RBIs and an .899 OPS. That is everything you want right there. Hitting great, still powerful, decent enough in the outfield, and still loved by everyone. The Twins are beginning to run out of pillars, as they've still got Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober but a lot of people have left. They just sent down Royce Lewis, which should tell you everything you need to know about what he's turned into. Keaschall and Lee have backslid, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are promising but not cemented yet. Buxton's really all they have that they know works right now, and even for a weaker Twins team, that's enough.

The Twins know they're not built like the Dodgers, so they're just trying to outdo everyone's expectations. And right now they're ahead of the Tigers in the standings, so mission accomplished there. Let's see what else they can do, and what else Buxton can help them out with.

Coming Tomorrow- I did not think he'd ever end up with a starting position on a competitive version of this team, but the guy sure can hit. 

Money for Dingers in 2026

 

So, to recap. Two of the most effective home run hitters in baseball signed new contracts this offseason. One has been called a necessary and needed move, the other has been questioned and criticized. Both are essentially doing what they were paid to do, but because one has done it a lot more frequently, and immediately, that one's seen as superior to the other one, who's younger and arguably more consistent.

Pete Alonso is 31 years old, and to date he's hit 272 home runs in 8 years. With the exception of 2020, only one of those years finished without Alonso reaching 35 home runs. The man is a hitting machine who makes the all-star team virtually every year, routinely knocks over 100 RBIs, and last year led the league in doubles with 41. Yet when the Orioles signed him to a 5-year deal a few months ago, the immediate response was trepidation. A lot of that had to do with the last time the O's gave a contract to a power-hitting 1st baseman, Chris Davis, where the power suddenly shut off without warning midway through. Yet I don't know if a lot of it was fair to Alonso, who through his first 7 seasons proved himself superior to Davis, and arguably more multifaceted. Davis was a good hitter with a few strong years; Alonso's a reliable lineup presence who can come through when you need him. 

So far for Baltimore, Alonso has 8 home runs and 26 RBIs. It looks inferior when you compare him to a guy who has, say, 20 homers by now, but knowing that Alonso regularly hits his stride midyear, and has hit 106 homers past the trade deadline in his career, it's not especially scary. The other thing you need to remember is that the Orioles' lineup right now is built in a way where Alonso doesn't always need to hit the home runs. Sometimes it's Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman, sometimes it's hot-hitting rookie Samuel Basallo, and eventually it'll be Taylor Ward, who's surprisingly only hit 1 home run despite a solid contact spring. Alonso is the key power hitter, but it's not as on him as it may have been in New York. 

Not helping Alonso's value has been the generally mild start the Orioles have had, with a lot of missed opportunities, a disappointing start from newly-extended Shane Baz, the complete implosion of Trevor Rogers and a really messy May. There are elements of this team that work, like Basallo as an extra power bat and Rico Garcia's breakout year in the 'pen, but as a unit they're not on the same page yet, and it's led to disappointing baseball.

Now, as for Kyle Schwarber. He's 33 years old, has hit 360 home runs in 6 years, and signed a 5-year contract to DH in Philly til 2030. Again, Schwarber is the same kind of hitter as Alonso, he just strikes out a ton more and only recently remembered how to hit things other than home runs. But because Philly fans need that immediate source of dopamine, he's regarded a ton higher, and because he's hit 20 so far his contract seems like more of a win than Alonso's. Forgetting that...yeah, he's 33, and he strikes out 200 times a year. The power ceiling is always super high, and with that 20 HR mark he's already staring down his career high of 56 that he set just last year, but that's basically all the Phils are paying for. Well...that and having the ultimate clubhouse enthusiast, nicknamed DJ Schwarbs on account of his post-game music selection. He's the kind of guy you want on your team, and he's the kind of guy who makes you want to make a postseason run, as he's been proving since he woke up the Sox in 2022, or even his rookie year in 2016 in Chicago. 

The Phils are 14-4 since firing Rob Thomson and bringing Don Mattingly up, and Schwarber's power has been one key aspect of the surge. Bryce Harper's power has also helped, his one man spite mission against Dave Dombrowski has resulted in a .277 average, 12 homers and 30 RBIs. Brandon Marsh is hitting .327, Bohm and Stott are very quickly heating up, Sanchie and Wheels are lights-out [Sanchez just had a gem of a CGSO], Duran still works as a closing option, and those close games can be won [just look at the Pirates series, or last night's game against the Reds]. They're only a game over .500 and in 2nd, but they look better than they have all year, and as they head for a really tough week of matchups they have so much more life in them.

I think both power hitters will finish with seasons they can be proud of. I just hope the fans will take everything into account as they judge these contracts. Cause they really are the same kind of hitter, and they both deserve the same level of respect.

Coming Tonight: If he were to have stayed healthy in every season, he'd have around 400 homers and be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. But alas...