Joe Ryan's Belt

 

I dunno what to tell you with the Twins. You can tell they really try, they really put a lot of people in position to succeed, and something always goes wrong. Carlos Correa, as talented as he is, is wildly inconsistent. Byron Buxton is terrific but never stays healthy. Same with Royce Lewis. They already had a potential foundational offensive talent literally retire on account of being unable to stay healthy. Something about this team is seriously snakebitten, which makes the fact that they actually won a playoff series a few years ago all the more heartbreaking. They were the ones to finally snap the whole city's curse, and yet they still remain cursed themselves.

The real curse this season has just been the ineptitude. Not a lot of injured pieces, just a lot of very blah ones. I will never not be confused by Matt Wallner, who's such a gifted athlete and terrific outfielder, just refusing to really accomplish much. Through a month, Wallner has, through 57 at-bats, 3 RBIs and 1 home run. And yet because he does so many other things well, he has a 0.7 WAR already. Because he's good at contact stuff, he has good value, but...again, what has he done?? For comparisons sake, Ty France,  who has 17 RBIs and is hitting .248, has a 0.1 WAR. I don't really understand a lot of statistical categories they use, and I do get that France is replacement level and Wallner is a proven starter, but Matt Wallner just hasn't accomplished enough, in my eyes, to warrant such a statistical boost. Like, Luke Keaschall was really helping this team, he was hitting .368, he stole 5 bases. Him getting injured immediately, that hurts the team. That's an impact. I don't get Wallner's impact yet. 

Joe Ryan's appeal I do get, though. In the past few seasons, Ryan has been the Twins' best pitcher. He was hurt a little last year, but when he was healthy he was really strong. So far this season he's been equally impressive, with a 3.18 ERA and 39 Ks. Even in this more frustrating, offensively-duller season, having surefire guys like Ryan and Lopez keep you from falling into last. Not that there'd be too much danger of that this year, as the White Sox do exist, but the Twins, despite the recent spike, have been rocked a bit this year. Ryan, Lopez, Ober and now David Festa have provided really strong innings for this team, and give a bit of hope that when things turn around [which looks likely this week], they'll be alright ultimately.

The Twins are gonna keep confusing me, because it's not as obvious as like 2019 where the heart of the team is, if it's with power or defense or whatever. With the Tigers and Guardians, and I suppose the Royals, the Twins need to find that hook and figure out how they can outlast the competition, because if not it may be Baldelli's ass this year.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many truly excellent defenders in Milwaukee. 

Opposite Poles

 

I'm headed into New York today to see an old friend in Manhattan. I don't get into the city as much as I'd like to. I've got a lot of friends there, spread throughout the city, and it costs more than I'd like to get up there. I know I'm getting to a Yankee game in a few months, probably another later on. It just becomes an occasional treat. Y'know, I live a 90 minute train ride away, give or take a drive to the train itself, it's a nice luxury to have. And it's a great day to just walk around, take it in.

I say this because it's gonna be weird being in the city at a time where the Mets are king. The Yankees are no slouch, let's be clear, but the Mets are the best team in baseball right now. Nobody's hitting like the Mets, nobody's pitching like the Mets. Nobody, not even the Dodgers, are doing what the Mets are doing. And even I have to just stop and watch. Brandon Nimmo has a 9-RBI day the other day, Pete Alonso's got an OPS over 1, Lindor's hitting .300, and now Alvarez and McNeil are back and hitting. Everything seems to have clicked. 

The Alonso thing is why the Mets are so thankful to have locked up the guy going forward. You do not want one of the best power hitters in the league going anywhere else. Alonso had hit 226 home runs as a Met, and since the contract he's hit seven more. But that's not all. Right now he's having a wholly excellent start, hitting .349 with 28 RBIs, a 1.088 OPS and 11 doubles. He's excelling at so many more things than usual, which has to be a relief for the Mets. They're used to somebody signing the contract and losing dimensions, like Jason Bay or Vince Coleman or Yoenis Cespedes. Alonso seems like so much more than a power hitter right now, and it's the best season for it. It's funny, last season Alonso hit only 34 home runs, a low for him in a full season. There's a chance he outdoes that mark this season, and at this rate he certainly could.

The rotation is the reason why this team has won 20 games. Kodai Senga, Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Clay Holmes have all been pitching beautifully so far. Canning is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA, his best numbers in years [proving they just needed to get him out of Anaheim]. Senga is fully healthy and at peak levels, 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA so far. Even Peterson, sort of the 5th man, is a really strong piece, with a 3.06 ERA and 30 Ks. The thought was that without Sean Manaea, Paul Blackburn and Frankie Montas, the rotation would buckle a bit, but that hasn't happened yet. The bullpen also looks pretty good, though the prospect of potentially losing A.J. Minter isn't great. 

This Mets team, so far, is what Steve Cohen wanted to build. A competitive, overpowering and fun team, led by Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, who are leading the division and in great shape already. The real test will be sustaining this over the next 5 months, but who knows? Maybe they've finally figured it out.

Coming Tonight: The Twins traded their best power hitter for this guy. Since the trade, the power hitter dropped from his peak and retired. The guy they traded him for has been a lot better. 

Lost & Hound

 

So far for the Blue Jays, a lot of the unsung guys have been providing the most highlights. The relief guys, many of whom are lifers who always do what they can, have been lining the WAR leaders. Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Brendan Little and Chad Green. Backups thrown into the mix, like Tyler Heineman and Myles Straw. Andres Gimenez has still been one of the best hitters on the team, which is wild considering Vlad Jr., Bo and Springer also play here. 

But the biggest success of the season has been a guy a lot of Jays fans wrote off last season. A colleague of mine is a Jays fan, and last season he was griping about Chris Bassitt. 'You can keep him in for 7 innings but he still gives up like 3 home runs a game'. In the 1970s, this was commonly known as 'being a pitcher'. Ya stay in long enough, ya get roughed up a little the third time through. Happened to Ryan and Sutton and John all the time. Nobody really goes 7 consistently anymore, as around 5 you have to ensure they don't blow their arms out. Chris Bassitt got all of that out of his system in his 20s, and since he turned 30 he's been this consistent, reliable deep game force. Fans of the A's, Mets and now Jays have lovingly referred to Bassitt was 'the hound' for just how much of a hard worker he is. Just goes in, day in and day out, gets the job done, catches you in 5 or 6 days for some more. 

To that end, Chris Bassitt really is a throwback. There's not a lot of guys who've gone through the last few seasons without getting hurt. It's him, Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, at least just coming to my head. And while Bassitt has struggled once or twice, especially last season, he's still shown up consistently and not backed down. Since 2022 he's averaged 184 innings, struck out 560 and sported a 3.65 ERA. The Jays have seen a lot of inconsistency pitching wise since Bassitt came over in 2023. They thought they had an ace in Alek Manoah, and they really didn't. They saw great seasons from Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios followed by struggles. They lost Yusei Kikuchi only for him to really take off. This year they signed Max Scherzer and lost him after 3 innings. Yet Bassitt has remained a crucial and integral piece of the rotation.

So far this season, Bassitt has a 2.62 ERA, 39 Ks, and only 10 earned runs. He leads the Blue Jays in WAR with 1.2, which is more than Guerrero, Bichette, Kirk and Santander combined. Bassitt is the standout of this rotation, which sports lesser seasons from Gausman, Berrios and Bowden Francis. Nothing's been outright terrible, it's just been more serviceable than truly great at the moment. It could click, as I think they have more going for them than the Rays, but they need that leadership figure [Vlad? Bo?] to emerge and start going on a tear. I reckon it'll happen in May or June. 

The Blue Jays don't have much at the moment, but they're thankful they have Chris Bassitt. Wouldn't we all.

Coming Tomorrow- Going from a basset hound to a polar bear...

Four for Fourth

 

In case you haven't heard, Eugenio Suarez, Saturday night, hit four home runs against the Atlanta Braves. To hit four homers at home, that is very big. This put him at 10 homers overall, leading the league, and helped the Diamondbacks rise to, as I write this, 15-13.

Just two issues really. One, the Braves still ended up winning that game, as people who aren't Eugenio Suarez didn't show up at all that game. Two, even over .500, the Diamondbacks are still fourth in the NL West. The top 3 did it without any 4-homer games.

And look, Eugenio Suarez can keep the memory of Saturday night with him, in addition to all the home runs he's hit and all the big power moments he's had. But right now, there's not really a lot to him other than power. Defensively he's not great. Aside from the power numbers he's only hitting .206, and he's only got 5 singles so far. He also has 31 strikeouts, topped only by fellow power hero Corbin Carroll. Even in his most explosive moments, he's a pretty average power bat. At least Kyle Schwarber is hitting for average. At least Aaron Judge has multiple dimensions. There really isn't much to Suarez other than home runs anymore, and that's not a great sign.

The Diamondbacks just have a lot of aspects right now that really aren't as good as they should be. Brandon Pfaadt and his 5 wins are the only starter with an ERA lower than 3, meaning Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and even Zac Gallen are all struggling. Gallen has a 5.57 ERA and a 1-4 record, after several years of being truly untouchable. Maybe whatever injury limited him last year is still acting up? Burnes, a year after a Cy Young caliber season in Baltimore, has yet to garner a win. You're also still waiting on Jake McCarthy and Lourdes Gurriel to do anything, you're without Ketel Marte for a bit and all the catching options are struggling to hit. The last two seasons did not prepare the Diamondbacks for such diminishing returns, solely because the breakout came on the promise of a bright future. This is not bright.

Josh Naylor, at the very least, is hitting as advertised. .318 with 19 RBIs and 4 homers, that's exactly what he was brought over to do. Pavin Smith has been incredible at DH, hitting .333 with 9 RBIs and 4 homers. The bullpen has the right idea for the most part, though there's a couple guys that just aren't getting it done. The pieces of a good team are definitely there, but the top 3 in this division didn't have time for the sort of learning curve the D-Backs are still on. There can still be room for them, but a lot needs to change, and a lot needs to be completely turned around.

Hitting 4 home runs is great and all, but it doesn't do much if the games aren't getting won.

Coming Tonight: The definition of a workhorse. Makes all his starts, goes deep, doesn't let you down.

All That Talk And Nothing to Say

 

It's not uncommon for the Houston Astros to start with a mediocre April record. In fact, it happens more often than not- the big thing for this team is getting hot around June and not letting up. But this time seems different. This time, with even more trusted players gone, and even more pitchers hurt, it just feels like the Astros that remain really can't match up.

Here's the big stat: there are only two Astros hitters that currently have a Batting Runs Better Than Average figure in the positives. They are Chas McCormick, who's hitting .318 in 22 at-bats, and Isaac Paredes, who's hitting .245 with 13 RBIs. Everybody else has negative hitting figures. Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Jake Meyers, Yordan Alvarez, Cam Smith...even Jose Altuve, whose defensive mishaps have given him a -0.3 WAR to start the season. Jeremy Pena, hitting .255 with 11 RBIs, has a 0 batting figure. You take Bregman and Tucker out of the equation and it's clear how many guys are simply average hitters. It hurts even more with Jeremy Pena being literally average. They farmed and brought him up to succeed Correa, and for him to just sort of putter by on his defense and base running isn't what they wanted.

Where this team still succeeds is with young pitching, which definitely helps considering they're still without McCullers, Garcia, Javier and France, and now Spencer Arrighetti is missing some time. They're always gonna be able to rely on Framber Valdez I think, the guy might be one of the most consistent hurlers around. What has helped is Hunter Brown's incredible start, going 4-1 with 40 Ks and a 1.22 ERA, culminating in a 1.7 WAR. Whatever struggles Brown has had in the past seems to be in the rearview, and he's giving the team confidence where there could have been panic. Even Hayden Wesneski, who struggled for years in Chicago, is more confident here, with a 3.86 ERA in 5 games. Ryan Gusto has also been a great piece, finally debuting after 5 years in the minors: he's 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA filling in for Arrighetti. And plus, this has been a much better season for Josh Hader, finally seeming like his old self with a 0.69 ERA and 7 saves already.

So...they're not allowing a ton of runs, but they're also not hitting. Which has never really been an issue with them. Even through rough starts they'd still manage one-dimensional power stuff. But together the team is hitting .231 with only 21 home runs. And you're seeing Springer, Bregman, Tucker, even organizational pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, all doing way better elsewhere. This was always how things could end up if they kept playing the way they did, and the realization could set in if the slump continues. It may not, as the team always finds the moment to start hitting to specifically spite me, but this may be the team that fails where every other one succeeded.

Coming Tomorrow- FOUR HOME RUNS IN ONE GAME. 

Well Enough to Get Out

 

Back when the prevailing theory on Lost was that the whole show was a purgatory, and the people who survived the crash were being tested to see if they counted for either pole of the afterlife, the one piece of evidence people pointed to was that whenever a character would have a moment of realization, arc-ending clarity or anything like it, that character would immediately be killed off. There are many examples, especially in the first three or four seasons. This theory did bank on the show having any intention of really valuing its own explanation, but it was popular for a while.

I bring this up because the Pittsburgh Pirates, of late, have occupied similar logic. A free agent will sign there as a flyer, seeing if there's anything there to do, will immediately have a tremendous season and then by the trade deadline won't have to play for the Pirates anymore, and will go on to great career heights afterwards. There have been a ton of guys to fall into this category since 2019ish. Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana, Martin Perez, Carlos Santana, Chris Stratton, Dan Vogelbach [didn't go too well for him once he left though]. The majority of them found great success after this- Anderson heading up the Anaheim rotations, Santana as a gold glover with Minnesota, Perez with a scorching run with the Padres and White Sox, Quintana with a ton of great seasons and a current monster run in Milwaukee. 

Andrew Heaney does look like the latest iteration of this. He was signed after a weaker but still durable year with Texas, he's been around for 10 years and has always been a great low-rotation option, he made a rotation around younger options like Paul Skenes, James Jones, Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter. He wasn't expected to be the ace, he was just expected to fill innings. So far, however, Heaney has been excellent for Pittsburgh, as through 5 starts he's 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA, 31 Ks and a 1.3 WAR. Strong, respectable stuff...even with Paul Skenes right there. That's the twist, even with Skenes striking out 39, and having a 2.39 ERA, he's still got a lower WAR than Andrew Heaney. He's given up more earned runs, it's that simple.

Now, Heaney, if he keeps it up, could be a solid trade deadline pickup for anyone who wants him, as this whole thing seems to go. There's the slightest chance the Pirates could actually compete this year, but...I mean, not on Bob Nutting's watch. And thus, Heaney will continue the cycle.

I do find it funny that there's another guy on this team that would be a fine pick for this phenomena as well, signed for one year and expected to last til at least the deadline...but it's for the opposite reason. Tommy Pham has been excellent down the stretch, and towards June, the last few years, and this year in Pittsburgh he has absolutely stunk. Hitting .193, with 6 RBIs, through 25 games, then causing all sorts of ruckuses like going to get Uber Eats outside the stadium in warmup dress and allegedly talking back to fans. He's gonna end up off this team at this rate, just not in the dignified way. Who knows, maybe he just wants to get out of Pittsburgh. I don't even think he wanted to get out of Chicago this badly last year, and that says something. 

I do hope the Pirates eventually figure out how not to be this purgatory point for one year deals. That may take a change in ownership, and who knows when or if that'll happen, but...that could definitely do the trick.

Coming Tonight: I give Houston a lot of shit, but damn if they can't still produce great young players, even now.

Mize to the Occasion

 

The moment Tigers fans have been dreaming about for years has arrived. They are in 1st place in the AL Central, commandingly, led by Spencer Torkelson, Casey Mize, Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal. I don't exactly think the plan was for it to take this long, but it's clicking.

I think the Tigers have at least proven that even if you build enough of a team from a great farm system, it's not going to click immediately. There'll be years where Tork won't hit, or years where Mize will be hurt, or years where you accidentally give away Isaac Paredes because he just hasn't blossomed yet. But then, out of nowhere, everything can come together for a 2024 ALDS run, even without many of those tricky pieces, and when they do bloom they'll just supplant everything that was working. It is odd that Parker Meadows, one of the impetuses of the 2024 run, is still hurt, and yet this team is still soaring. Maybe he just needed to be the one to light the match. 

Casey Mize is having his best season to date, and it's in a role where he doesn't need to head up the rotation. I think that was the mistake, pitching him as THE ace, when in reality it was somebody like Tarik Skubal or Jack Flaherty. Mize only has 23 strikeouts through 5 starts, but he does have 4 wins and a 2.12 ERA. He's not a flamethrower like Skubal, but he's accurate, consistent and reliable. Finally. And having him in great shape has strengthened the rotation, which, aside from Keider Montero, has been spotless. Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 40 Ks, which is not a bad response to Cy Young success at all. Jack Flaherty has a 2.63 ERA and 29 Ks, and I'm really glad he decided to come back to Detroit after winning the ring. Even Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe have been consistent, with sub-3 ERAs and positive W/L ratios. After years of the Tigers' rotation essentially being 'whoever could show up', this is a positive, well-organized unit, and they can lead this team far.

The production, by the way, coming from Spencer Torkelson and Javier Baez, two guys holding down previous iterations of this team, is astounding. Torkelson is hitting .255 [cold recently], but he has 8 home runs, 24 RBIs and a 1.3 WAR. Baez has finally reclaimed his contact glory, hitting .301 with 26 hits and 7 RBIs. Baez was signed to be the centerpiece of this lineup, and I think he's a lot better off as just one of many contributors, alongside Kerry Carpenter, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney and Gleyber Torres. It's not really a 'one man leads the team' kind of squad right now, especially with Riley Greene hitting around .202. The collaborative mentality is winning games for this team, and I'm happy to see it.

The Tigers winning the division, and outlasting the competition by a wide margin, would be a really cool outcome, especially after a decade of ineptitude. They're on the road to this, they just need to keep on it.

Coming Tomorrow- Paul Skenes may be the real headline guy in Pittsburgh, but this guy's not exactly throwing badly either. 

Somehow, the Braves Returned

 

A lot of people are responding to the Braves' recent spike with 'oh, well you figured this team wouldn't stay down forever'. Honestly? No Acuna, diminished offensive presence, Lopez and Strider going down, Sale struggling, Snitker in hot water? I kinda thought this would be the gig this year. But, after all, this is still a Braves team, and they're gonna go for it.

The last eight games, the Braves have won seven. The outlier is a big loss against the Cardinals. Last night they even won a game where a guy on the opposing team hit four home runs in four at-bats against them. All of the wins, barring an 8-2 victory over Arizona, have been close. This is a nice start, however I'm not ready to go 'Braves are going to the World Series' or anything.

Here is the thing: some teams can get around having their biggest stars hurt by having productive backups. When Gerrit Cole started last season on the IL, they gave the spot to Luis Gil, and he helped bridge the gap to the postseason. The Dodgers had all their starters get hurt last year, and they still had enough backups to keep them moving. The Braves, instead of starting Lopez and Strider, are currently going with Grant Holmes, a 10-year minor league veteran, and A.J. Smith-Shawver. Holmes, despite finally being MLB ready, is not competitive team ready, and has a 4.50 ERA despite 2 wins. Smith-Shawver is doing better, but at 22 he's still a bit wet by the ears, and hasn't really been eased in as much as he should have. Similarly, instead of Orlando Arcia, who's finally lost his luster, the Braves are starting Nick Allen at short. This is...sort of working? He's alright defensively, but aside from a .273 average he's really nothing special. Just a lil' twerpy guy who gets the job done. And without Acuna, the outfield of Kelenic-Harris-de la Cruz doesn't look very good at all. Kelenic still hasn't figured it out in the majors, and it's looking like the Mariners were right to give up on him. de la Cruz still hasn't picked up an RBI. What a signing that was. Yet I feel like the Braves are regretting that signing less than they're regretting the Profar one.

The things that are working are at the very least encouraging. Austin Riley's off to an excellent start, hitting .300 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. I was worried about him after an injury ended his 2024, but he looks like he's in great shape, and he and Marcell Ozuna have been leading this team in Acuna's absence. Sean Murphy's been very hot lately, and had a homer last night. Spencer Schwellenbach has been the Braves' most consistent starter so far, and has a 2.56 ERA through 5 starts. And even if Chris Sale has got his ERA around 5, he still has 36 strikeouts. I don't think there's much to worry about, he's just had some rough early starts. 

I think this stretch is telling me the Braves, at the very least, aren't a last place team. I don't think they're a FIRST place team either, but they're definitely better than they started the season, and they may have even further to go once some people start coming back.

Coming Tonight: Finally, FINALLY, a former #1 overall pick delivers on the promises. 

One Annoyance After Another

 

It takes a special kind of player to get through playing for a team I don't like for eight years and then immediately go to another team I don't like. Thorzul, back when he blogged regularly, coined the term 'pissant' for a player that only does well against your team; I use 'Yankee-killer' when talking about the ones who specifically kill the Yankees, your Ellis Burkses and Carlos Penas and now Devers and Vlad Jr. But this is more specific--someone who seems to only exist to antagonize your teams, and whose moves seem to directly back up this vendetta. I think about Cody Ross, who frequented the teams that always seemed to go against mine, or Joe Kelly, who really went from the Cardinals to the Red Sox to the Dodgers. 

Alex Bregman is the next level of this. Bregman was a founding member of a team that cheated their way to a World Series over the Yankees, and were penalized so badly that they kept doing it for another 6 years, culminating in another ring that the league tried to convince us was won fairly. I tried to convince myself that it'd be okay to tolerate the Astros again once the members of that 2017 team all left [Verlander notwithstanding, it's clear he was never part of it], and while it's pretty much just Altuve and McCullers left right now, I'm still not exactly rooting for them. And a lot of these 2017 guys, when they left they picked teams I was alright with, Correa with the Twins, Tucker with the Cubs, Springer with the Jays [I mean, I tolerate it I guess]. Bregman decided to further spite me, and Yankee fans, in particular and sign with the Red Sox, meaning we'd play him even more times a year and the losses would hurt even more. 

The trouble with Bregman, much like the trouble with Altuve, is that you keep waiting for his stats to finally sour so people can give up on him and it just doesn't happen. Bregman, with all his smack talk, is still an excellent hitter, and still an excellent third baseman. Not a lot of people want to talk about this, especially me, but through age 31, Bregman's stats are relatively close to Hall of Fame quality. That's a 41.1 career WAR right now, and he's got plenty more time, especially considering he's still in his prime. Granted, it's closer to either a Scott Rolen 'wait for a while' thing or a Dale Murphy/Buddy Bell 'borderline Hall of Very Good' thing, but considering that Altuve's pretty much a lock, JV's getting in and Beltran will likely be in eventually, saying Bregman should be in as well isn't exactly out of line. He was a crucial member of those teams, nearly won an MVP, has averaged 4.3 WAR in each of the last 3 years, and has only really been injured for one season. And judging by these Sox numbers, he's still got plenty to add.

Right now, with the Red Sox, Bregman is validating the signing. People were skeptical at the time, 'what'll this do to Devers', but this seems to be the right move right now. Through 26 games, Bregman is batting .320, with a 1.5 WAR, 21 RBIs, 5 homers and a league-leading 10 doubles. Bregman and Trevor Story have formed a really nice veteran duo at the heart of the lineup, with both healthy, hitting and fulfilling the power end while Devers heals his ego. Honestly, I prefer this to Bregman's Astros stuff, because there he'd creep up on you, sort of pull things together at the end of the year despite some torrid stretches. Here, he's just simply as good as he looks. Y'know, there he is, hitting .300, helping the team out. It's a much less entitled team, too; the Astros, up until last year, were acting like the AL West was theirs and theirs alone, and that attitude led to the collapse. The Sox know they need to fight for it, and they know that with the O's struggling and the Yanks beginning to slide, they could easily take the division and run with it. 

There are still some fundamental issues with this team [Devers, the 'pen, some starters] but Bregman may have jumped ship at the right time. Maybe not a great move for me specifically, but this might be the Sox's year to make a difference.

Coming Tomorrow- In the long tradition of great Atlanta third basemen, a power hitter who's helping bring the team back from oblivion.

Ray of Hope?

 

A few years ago, when the Giants were trying to revitalize themselves without actually getting younger players, I wondered when they'd get the picture. The answer wasn't having an average age of 32, the answer was building something. And they tried, they had Joey Bart and Steven Duggar and Jaylin Davis, but none of that worked. And they were only getting older. I'm glad 2021 happened, as sort of this last hurrah for the old way of thinking, but they needed Melvinball, and they needed to crumple and toss.

So now that the team is being led by people like Willy Adames, Logan Webb, Jung-Hoo Lee and Heliot Ramos, they can use older players in more supplementary and supportive roles, instead of as the driving force. Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray are not on this team to drive the bus, they're here to contribute, because they still can.

And to be honest, this is close to vintage Robbie Ray we're seeing here. Not as dominant as Toronto Robbie, he's still got a 4 ERA, but he's 3-0 with 25 Ks, and the only Giants starter to give up less earned runs so far is Logan Webb. I knew Ray would be a great piece for them when he got healthy, and we saw a glimpse of this last year. Now he's truly back, and I'm glad the Giants are benefitting. Same with Justin Verlander, who's clearly not peak JV, but he's still doing a lot of the same things. He's struck out 23 through 5 games, and even with a 5 ERA, he's only lost 1 game. It's not like Charlie Morton going 0-5 in all his starts, he's having trouble but not in a way where the Giants are screwed, because almost every time they hit their way back. Jordan Hicks, meanwhile, has a 6 ERA and 3 losses. So JV could be a lot worse.

The veteran supplanting stretches to the lineup, where Wilmer Flores leads the league in RBIs with 27, Matt Chapman's hitting up a storm and leading the charge, and Mike Yastrzemski's having his best season in years, hitting .282 with 13 RBIs and 4 homers. At the same time, the younger players can do the heavy lifting as well, with Fitzgerald, Ramos and Lee heavily contributing, and a young core of Randy Rodriguez, Hayden Birdsong, Spencer Bivens and Erik Miller ruling the bullpen. They've finally found a really nice mix, and it's worked so well that the Giants have lapped the Dodgers in the standings.

I think they can sustain this and add to this as Bailey, Adames and Wade click, and as the rotation sheds off some April cobwebs. If the team wasn't winning at the power game, the pitching would hurt more, and it doesn't. A lot can improve, even as this team's already outdone expectations. I hope they surprise people going forward.

Coming Tonight: Kyle Tucker is someone who I was waiting to get out of Houston so I could actually enjoy his gameplay. This guy, not only did he not exactly make himself easy to love, he went to Boston. Uphill battle for him I guess.

Ending the Drought

 

It's funny, last night in Green Bay, the Packers made history by drafting a wide receiver in the first round for the first time since 2002. A drought like that is a really big deal, and it's a turnaround for a team that's found other means of producing great receivers [as Davante Adams can tell you]. There's not a lot of comparable droughts in sports, at least to that level.

I will put into the same category the Mariners' feat of, from 2004 til 2022, failing to provide an above-average starting catching option. Because you can tell the story as simply as 'after Dan Wilson retired it took a while until Cal Raleigh' showed up, but it's way more complicated than that. On so many occasions, the Mariners thought they had a guy. In 2006 they sign Kenji Johjima, who has maybe one decent season and then trails off tremendously. In 2012, they trade for Jesus Montero, the Yankees' top catching prospect, and he never matches up to his 18-game call-up from 2011, consistently missing the mark and never reaching his full potential. In 2013, the Mariners call up Mike Zunino, and place an unnecessary amount of confidence in the guy, even trading away Welington Castillo in order to keep him as a starting option. Aside from one surprise smash of a 2017 season, he's subpar both offensively and defensively, and routinely hits below the Mendoza line. In 2019 they finally have a great catching option in Omar Narvaez, but immediately trade him away so they can start Austin Nola, who they also trade away. Only a portion of this is luck, and a lot of this is the Mariners thinking they know better and not knowing a damn thing.

Which is why it's been so satisfying seeing Cal Raleigh not only be the answer in Seattle at catcher, but become one of the team's best players. I saw the Mariners play the Yankees last year, and in the midst of what was ultimately a Yankee runaway, Cal Raleigh still absolutely murdered a ball deep to right and gave some insurance runs. And that's why Raleigh isn't always the biggest WAR guy, he's always the guy who goes deep when they're trailing by a lot. He's figuring out how to be the game winner, and thus his stats are trending upwards. So far he has a league-leading 9 home runs, 16 RBIs, a 1.1 WAR and some decent, if diminished, defensive play. He has been 'the guy' more often than not for this Mariners team, though Dylan Moore, J.P. Crawford and Randy Arozarena [who leads the AL in steals with 8] are coming through more and more lately. Crawford having a bounce-back offensive season would be appreciated by everyone I think. 

The issue for the Mariners at the moment is that the rotation, by and large, isn't quite as untouchable as it was last season. Many of the chief starters' ERAs, including Miller and Castillo, are in the 4 zone, and you're seeing more losses pile up on them. It does help that the team is hitting, and hitting well, but it remains a tragedy that they couldn't start doing that while the rotation was as unhittable as it was. They're still good, and Logan Gilbert is off to yet another great start, but there's limits. Emerson Hancock may not be the answer to that fifth spot as George Kirby deals with an injury. Maybe Jhonathan Diaz is? He's worth a shot. 

This is a better, more fearsome Mariners team, even if Julio hasn't completely landed yet and there are minor pitching issues. This team can stay in the race all year, and hopefully Raleigh can be the guy to lead them deeper.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Mariner, one who may be having a bit more luck away from that rotation.

Night of the Hunter

 

Hunter Greene's career, however it finishes up, is going to be a truly interesting one, one that's very indicative of the pitching trends of the moment. He was the #2 overall pick in 2017, but doesn't make the majors til 2022 due to a mix of injuries and the collapse of the 2020 minor league season. He's always been very good in the majors but has never had a season longer than 26 games due to his continued injury issues. He's gone from a full strikeout artist to a smarter, more thoughtful ace with that same strikeout ability. Even in those three partial seasons, he's still struck out 150 or more. Last season he was on the way to a Cy Young when he got injured yet again. Now he's very healthy, and playing better than he's ever played.

But...even when he's playing well, Hunter Greene gives you that uncertain, worried feeling. Like at any moment he's going to fall apart again. Two starts ago he was unbelievable, going 7 strong with 8 Ks, only allowing 2 hits. His last start was a lot shakier, getting yanked after 3 with 5 earned runs against the Orioles. With every time somebody like Greene gets really lit up, you get worried that an injury is coming soon. And I have Greene on my fantasy team, so I'd really, really like that to not happen. But that's what big game pitching is right now: going all out every start and hoping it doesn't screw you up enough to miss time. 

I think Hunter Greene has to be aware of this, as well as the fact that the majority of his Reds rotation compatriots are of this mindset as well. Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder have all missed time recently. Greene has lost a ton of time that he could have capitalized on already, and like other oft-injured high draft picks, like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Casey Mize, he's trying to fight the perception of him as a 'could have been somebody' guy. 

This said, Greene so far has been excellent, barring that Baltimore start. He's got a 2.35 ERA and 35 Ks, which is fantastic. Andrew Abbott is 2-0 since being activated, with a 1.64 ERA. Nick Lodolo, despite the idea that he's trying not to overexert himself, has been very dominant, with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP. Brady Singer is 4-0, even if statistically he's not as flashy as the others. The bullpen has also taken a great spike upward, with Emilio Pagan taking over for Alexis Diaz in the ninth, Tony Santillan, Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter and surprisingly Graham Ashcraft, taking to his relief role insanely well. That has helped this team, even if, aside from some cheesy bench power, there's not a whole lot going on offensively at the moment. 

I hope Hunter Greene, and the Reds, stay relevant and healthy this year. It's about time something happened on both fronts.

Coming Tonight: One of those guys that seems to simply hit home runs more often, and more casually, than anyone else.

How to Build A Young Rotation And Make It Last

 

The White Sox have got to be looking at the Nats' rotation right now going 'here's what we COULD be'. Cause if their rotation can be hindered by Martin Perez going down with an injury, they need to be taking notes.

Right now, the Washington Nationals, in their moment of patheticness as they wait for James Wood and Dylan Crews to run the team, have arguably one of the strongest rotations in baseball, and the majority of it is made up of young, strong hurlers. Many of them are homegrown, like both Mitchell Parker and Cole Irvin. Parker is picking up almost immediately where his 2024 left off, with a 3-1 record, a 1.37 ERA and a league-leading 1.7 WAR. He's had five terrific starts so far, and he's stepped up in a way no one was anticipating. Irvin is 2-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 27 Ks. Of the young Nats starters, he's the oldest at 28, and he's running the risk of getting past his peak before this team can really take off. 

And then there's...y'know...the guy they got from the Padres who strikes out everybody. Yeah, him. MacKenzie Gore K'd 8 more tonight, bringing his season total through 6 starts to 53. That is an extremely good thing, and it's even better that he's been, for the most part, on target, with a 3.34 ERA. Gore may be the flashier, bigger exclamation point pitcher, but Parker might be the better guy.

Now, the worrying part is the fact that after these three and Trevor Williams, there is a gaping hole at the back of the rotation. Anyone who would be a good idea to fill it, like Josiah Gray, D.J. Herz and Cade Cavalli, is hurt. They've been forced to use rookie Brad Lord as a fifth starter, which hasn't gone well. I'd honestly love to see them give Shinnosuke Ogasawara a shot, but he's been middle of the road in the minors. The one issue with having a rotation of young guys is you run the risk of burning them out, and hopefully the three starring guys in Washington stay this sturdy.

The White Sox, meanwhile, are just hoping to get into some consistent stretches with their young pitchers.  The issue of not burning out the young arms is already a factor, as you can already see SEVERAL on the IL after just a small bit of service time. Jesse Scholtens, Ky Bush, Drew Thorpe and Prelander Berroa are all on the 60-Day IL after partial seasons of White Sox support over the last few years. Thorpe, of all of those, seemed like The Guy through his rookie starts last year, but because every minor leaguer throws hard now, he needed a year of downtime. Martin Perez has joined them on the 60-Day, after a wonderful start. 

And while there are good young stars left, many of them aren't good enough to outrun the ineptitude of the team. Sean Burke's the only one doing truly terribly, he's got a 6.23 ERA [your opening day starter, everybody!]. Many, like Davis Martin and Jonathan Cannon, are pitching well enough but just have been unlucky. Cannon's 0-3 with a 4.81 ERA. The highlight, undoubtedly, has been Shane Smith, called up in time to make the Opening Day rotation, and holding down a 2.30 ERA and 20 Ks through 5 starts. Plus, today he finally got his first career win, one the bullpen couldn't blow considering that the game was called after 7 innings. I think it's better that a lot of these guys are good pitchers with a lot of promise, and I prefer that to last year, where you had only 2 truly great starters and a lot of people desperate to fill innings. We're not at the 'break glass for Chris Flexen' part of the season yet. There is that open fifth spot, and while I think it would be wise to call up former Red Sox starter prospect Wikelman Gonzalez, chances are they might throw in Bryse Wilson or somebody like that, for efficiency's sake. 

I think the White Sox are a couple years away from being where the Nats are, coasting on reliable starters and building something quietly. They're still pretty terrible, but the presence of Smith, and arguably Martin and Cannon, proves that they may not always be.

Coming Tomorrow- His team is within inches from competing, and he might be the force that gets them there.

Could Have. Would Have. Didn't.

 

There are two types of issues that have led the Orioles to begin the season circling last. There are the unpredictable issues, and there are the self-inflicted issues. And I'm not really sure which has damaged this team more.

The unpredictable accounts for a lot of why the O's are where they are. The rotation, ideally, should consist of Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Tomoyuki Sugano. The first three are all currently injured, as are Tyler Wells and Trevor Rogers. Kremer is struggling, as he tends to starting out. Sugano has a 3.43 ERA, but he was never intended to carry the rotation. And so with the rotation snakebitten, then the team has to go with people like Cade Povich and Brandon Young, who haven't been too impressive in early starts. Only Colton Cowser on the hitting end has been hurt, not counting Gunnar Henderson's IL stint to start the season. Then there's just some slumps, like Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday. The rest are hitting well, but not overwhelmingly well. Henderson's hitting .213 right now. Tyler O'Neill's only had 1 more homer since the Opening Day one. It's just a quieter, lower key team.

And then there's the self-inflicted issue. Mike Elias had an entire offseason to recover from a second straight postseason failure, and the ideas he came up with were singing Charlie Morton, who any Braves fan could tell you was over the hill, taking on Tyler O'Neill and Ramon Laureano as depth outfielders, hoping Andrew Kittredge would stay healthy [he hasn't] and...that's it. They thought that would work. Also keep in mind that while several other teams handed out extensions this offseason, the Orioles, even with Rubenstein money, did none of that. Mullins and Eflin, two of the biggest contracted pieces, are free agents at the end of the season, and the young stars are still on preliminary deals. 

And they're asking how this went wrong. You did nothing. This is your fault. 

Charlie Morton, through 5 starts, is 0-5 with a 10.89 ERA, leading the league in earned runs with 25. The novelty is over. This was your idea of retooling, or buttressing, the rotation and it's actively making things worse. They did grab Kyle Gibson as well, and he's stretching out in Norfolk at the moment, but we really shouldn't be in the position where we're waiting for Kyle Gibson to save the rotation. If they'd have signed a workhorse, or a Spencer Turnbull depth starter type, we wouldn't be here. Or maybe we would, because they went and got Cody Poteet and then he immediately got injured. Again, it's very hard to tell if the team is cursed or if Elias is just making all the wrong decisions. But either way, they shouldn't be here.

The hope is that the Orioles are just getting all of this out of their system early before they start going on a tear, but if not...this is a really bad look for a team that looked like they were about to make a run. It has to be better than this. 

Coming Tonight- Ironically, a starter nearby in a rotation block that may be the main thing that is working.

King of Everything

 

This...is what the Padres wanted when they traded Juan Soto. They wanted an immediate answer at a key position. Prospects helped, yes. The possibility of Jhony Brito and Randy Vazquez was nice, there were other players that could be something...but Michael King already worked as a starting option, and he just needed a place where there'd always be an opportunity for him.

Unsurprisingly, Michael King has been fantastic ever since joining the Padres. Last year he got Cy Young votes, went 13-9 and struck out 200. A fun stat as far as King is concerned is that since 2022 he's yet to finish with an ERA higher than 3. Last season he ended up with a 2.95 ERA, and currently he has a 2.57 ERA, with 3 wins and 31 Ks. This is some ace quality material from King, which is important because right now three guys who would normally be designated as ace, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease, are either hurt or struggling. Cease is healthy, but...is he? He's got a 6.04 ERA. Have the past few wonderful seasons caught up with him? King has held up very well so far, and seems to be a big game guy for this team.

...as is Nick Pivetta. I bet a lot of people were confused when the Padres spent a lot of money on Pivetta during the offseason. Pivetta's been fine with the Red Sox, but, as I could tell when he pitched for Philly, he has his limits, and sometimes he'll just give you a bad start. But the Padres got a very good read on Pivetta, and that struck a chord with me. So I took a flyer on him for my fantasy team. So far that's been a very good decision. Pivetta's currently 4-1, with a 1.20 ERA and 30 Ks. Last night he kept the Tigers down in a rare game during that series that went the Padres' way. Pivetta, King, and Randy Vazquez have been a big part of the Padres' rise so far--even without the proven arms the rotation was built on. 

The Padres are circling the top of the division, and it's thanks to Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis and Xander Bogaerts doing exactly what they were put on this team to do. Losing Merrill for a spell hurts, but there's enough power and production in this lineup to tide the team over until he comes back. As good as this team is, I see them getting better as more and more people return, and more and more nice pieces join the cause. I say this knowing that currently someone on this team has hit 8 home runs, and it's the guy regarded as the team's best player. They're doing fine obviously, but to win this division, against the Dodgers, they're gonna need to be better. 

Michael King could be the key to the upset. If he keeps it up.

Coming Tomorrow- After missing a couple weeks with an injury, I do not think this was the team he thought he'd be joining. 

From Paris With Love

 

For the first time in years, I can look at an Angels team, look at pretty much every position and go '...yeah, these are the answers'.

There's maybe one or two elements that can be retooled over time, like Jo Adell, and the back half of both the rotation and the bullpen, but a lot has suddenly clicked into place. The infield of Schanuel-Paris-Neto-Rengifo has fully arrived, with all four healthy and on the right track. Neto and Rengifo are recovering from injuries and heading back on track, but Schanuel is hitting .273 with 7 RBIs so far. Karen Paris, meanwhile, is the revelation, and after a brief major league run last fall, he seems to be a mainstay for the Angels, hitting .288 with 8 RBIs, 5 homers and 5 steals. He's also been excellent defensively, and he's really versatile as a hitter. He's young, he's ferocious, and he's making the most of the opportunity. Him, Neto and Schanuel together and surging will be a very good thing for this lineup, even with Trout and Ward still doing their thing.

The one worrying detail for the Angels has been Mike Trout's average, as he's only hitting .184. 8 of his 14 hits have been home runs. Now, unlike last year, Trout's RBIs haven't been on solo homers, as he's got 16 RBIs compared to his 8 homers. But he's just been less accurate than usual, and this is the most human he's ever been while healthy. Of course it's likely he'll go on a tear eventually and bring the average up, but this is perhaps a clue to the possible reality that Trout's peak may have passed during the injury-shortened years. Which is kind of awful. The Griffey comparisons have already been made, but this may be even more heartbreaking. This year he can still do something great, but that hot streak had better come soon.

The Angels, so far, have gotten great starting performances out of Tyler Anderson, Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Soriano. The Kikuchi deal was something of an odd one for the Angels, as it was based mostly off of his Astros numbers, but it's been paying off, with a 3.38 ERA and 28 Ks in 5 starts, despite no wins yet. Anderson has embraced his 2020s boom, with a 2.08 ERA through 4 starts. And Soriano's got a 3.16 ERA with 2 wins so far. This is a pretty strong core, even with Kochanowicz struggling, Caden Dana on mop-up duty [in the minors[ and Ian Anderson looking like an odd investment after all. I see this looking a ton fuller by the end of the year, I'm just not sure what exactly will happen for that to come to fruition.

The Angels look good right now, and while they're not breathing down the necks of the Rangers quite yet, they could factor heavily into the AL West this season, which would be pretty cool after all this time. Kyren Paris is looking like the real deal right now, and he could be the missing link this team needed.

Coming Tonight: The Yankees gave him up for a guy they couldn't even keep, and so he gave his new team the strikeout god they needed.

Valuing the Inverse

 

So here's what has been made clear about the Cardinals so far this year: what has helped this team more than anything else has been when the pressure is off, and when the spotlight is not there. The people that are succeeding on this team are the ones who were either counted out or just didn't do well with all the attention on them. 

Here's the best way to explain this. To move on from Yadier Molina, the Cardinals signed Willson Contreras to a mega-deal. Here's your catcher for the next several years, dude can hit and he's well loved, done deal. Last year Contreras gets injured behind the plate, he's moved to 1st for 2025 and has been...terrible. So not only have you given a roster spot to a subpar hitting choice, but now the catching spot is open. However, the majority of the Cardinals' 2025 catching choices have been successful so far. Ivan Herrera got off to a crazy start at the plate, then got injured. Since then, the position's been held by Pedro Pages, who's been excellent, with 14 hits and 10 RBIs in 17 games. And backing him up has been Yohel Pozo, who's hitting .316 already with 6 hits and 2 RBIs. Everyone was expecting Contreras to be THE guy, and the expectations needed to be lowered, so that now that the Cardinals have found the answer by stuffing three young catchers in a trench coat and winning with that, it's a good thing.

This also works for Nolan Arenado. Going into this season, the Cardinals weren't pleased with his 2024 work and were trying to trade him during the offseason. Then the season starts and, randomly, the old Nolan Arenado is back and he's hitting .282 with 22 hits and 10 RBIs. Once the expectations were lower and it wasn't about people waiting around for him to do well, he was great. Victor Scott's in that category as well, he came into 2025 as an alternate outfielder and is not only hitting well but stealing bases, with 8 so far. Even Matthew Liberatore has started being pretty sturdy as a starting man the exact second Cardinals fans stopped waiting for him to happen. 

The one Cardinal who's doing exactly as well as everyone thought is Brendan Donovan, who seems as good as everyone had thought. Donovan, right now, is hitting .356, with 32 hits, and 13 RBIs. Donovan is one of those guys who can do just about anything, as he's great defensively, he's an amazing contact hitter, and he's still very fast. It's weird that, as this team has elapsed, someone like Brendan Donovan has become a sort of central figure for this team. You'd think it would be Arenado but he's sort of taking a lower rung approach. You'd think Burleson but he's just not getting it done this year. And until Winn comes back it'll be someone like Donovan, who...can get it done, and can be that guy. The Cardinals weren't sure whether or not Tommy Edman was that guy, and so they traded him to LA. I think they want to try a different approach with Donovan. 

The Cardinals aren't doing terrific at the moment, but I still think they'll be better than they were last year, as they have the starting pitching, the versatility and the youth options necessary to win games. It's just a matter if, at last, the competition can withstand them.

Coming Tomorrow- Mike Trout isn't hitting for average right now, so here's an Angels hitter who is.

A Sort of Homecoming

 

This is Carlos Santana's third stint in Cleveland. His first stint, he becomes a hero at catcher then at first and helps the team get to a World Series. His second stint lasts two years, but has an incredible comeback season in 2019 which culminates in a starting ASG job. In the seasons he's played elsewhere, he's notched 108 of his 326 career home runs, as well as a couple postseason runs. Last season, however, he accomplished arguably his biggest feat: winning a gold glove and becoming a contact-friendly defense-first guy. 

Carlos Santana. The guy they call 'Slamtana'. He's now good at everything but power pretty much. He still hits home runs, he's got 2 so far this year, but now he's a gold glove 1st baseman, at 39, in the same defensive schematic as Steven Kwan, Austin Hedges and Brayan Rocchio. It makes a ton of sense having him back here as well, as the Guardians are a true contact team and Santana can crack those through still. And it's not like Santana is being relied upon heavily as a power bat right now- they have Kyle Manzardo and Lane Thomas for that, Santana can stick to his new strengths. 

But it's still just...odd. Trading Josh Naylor is one piece of it, because there's a true masher, even if he's not great defensively. He's continuing that strong work in Arizona right now. And in his place is Santana, dulled at the plate and better at 1st. I think even with sentimentality involved, the Guardians fans would still prefer Naylor's bat to Santana's glove right now. A lot of their other constants, like Ramirez, Clase and Bibee, are letting them down at the moment, and that would be a nice one to still have. And Santana can still knock RBIs, but that's not really what he's been hired to do as much. It's the opposite of what happened to Jose Altuve, he went from being a killer contact guy to a home run hitter. Santana's defense and contact moments are nice, but I think a lot of people miss the 30 home guy. And he's not really that guy anymore. I expect 20, if that.

It sort of lampshades that even if the Guardians are doing well, and trending upward, there are these little flaws and nicks that keep them from being fully great right now. Emmanuel Clase is blowing saves left and right, which he never does. There's a lot of very okay starting performances right now, with only Gavin Williams and Logan Allen standing out. Ramirez has calmed down. Steven Kwan and the bullpen have been the highlights, and you can see some guys warming up. But it's not all the way there yet.

They beat the Yankees last night. That's a start. But right now the Tigers just look better, and they need to put a stop to that.

Coming Tonight: With Arenado probably leaving soon, this guy might be the central figure for the Cardinals. Which is honestly pretty cool. 

That Certain X-Factor

 

Here's the wildest thing about the 2025 Miami Marlins, already the most fascinating of the 'bad teams' this year. Statistically, their best player right now is a reliever named Lake Bachar. Bachar toiled in the Padres' minor league system for 8 years, signed a deal with the Marlins and snuck onto the roster last year. So far he's been excellent in relief. Bachar is perfect for Miami baseball, because he has he look of someone who just crawled out of a swamp. He's got long hair, asymmetrical eyes, is somehow gangly and bloated at the same time, and looks perpetually like the mysterious insane drifter in a television show. Equal parts Old Man McGucket from Gravity Falls and Horace Goodspeed from Lost. More relievers should look like barroom denizens. We had Rod Beck, we had Bob Wickman, and now Bachar will do the trick.

I bring this up because the Marlins' thing so far this year has been getting wins out of the most anonymous, incomprehensible types of players. Going into the season, the narrative the Marlins were going with was 'Sandy Alcantara is back, Xavier Edwards, Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby are the stars of this team, and we're building on last season in order to hopefully be good again soon'. Alcantara so far has a 7.27 ERA, Edwards is decent but limited, Norby and Sanchez just got activated and the team again seems to be reshuffling. And...in the most bizarre way, it's kind of working? The Marlins aren't in last, they're scraping by, and yesterday they won on a 5-RBI day from rookie Javier Sanoja, who also hit his first career home run.

This was against the Philadelphia Phillies, by the way. As was the previous game, which the Phillies won but the Marlins nearly flipped by tacking on 6 runs in the ninth. And you can easily go 'oh, well the Phillies bullpen is having troubles right now', but if the Marlins' lineup wasn't sneakily good then they never would have had much of an issue. 

Right now the Marlins' best starter is Max Meyer, who had some excellent 2024 starts despite spending a chunk of the year in the minors. He's got a 2.10 ERA and 41 Ks so far, and as we speak he's silencing the Reds' offense. The team's best power hitter is former Cubs prospect Matt Mervis, who has 6 homers and 12 RBIs despite struggling in most other aspects. Kyle Stowers is undeniably the team's best clutch hitter, as he's been proving since the season started. And the best defender is Otto Lopez, though his contact numbers aren't all the way there yet this year. Plus, Ronny Simon and Agustin Ramirez got called up tonight and both have fit snugly into the equation. 

The injuries to this team...you'd think would be more destructive. Obviously Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are out for a bit, but this team is also without Ryan Weathers, Nick Fortes and now, just as he was getting going, Griffin Conine. And yet the roster depth and farm system are keeping the Marlins in it right now. Maybe not in the starting pitching division, but the variable quality of the lineup is definitely keeping the team fresh. Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman and Liam Hicks have played crucial roles in this team despite having more minor roles at the onset of the season. Only one person has truly outright failed so far, and he's off the team...though Cal Quantrill is close to that designation. 

The Marlins, despite any indication that they would be, aren't terrible this year. They aren't GREAT, but they haven't been as much of a disappointment as someone like Atlanta. Hopefully they build on this.

Coming Tomorrow- Fifteen years ago, if you had told me that this guy, all those years later, would still be starting for Cleveland, now coming off a gold glove season as a 1st baseman, I wouldn't have believed you. 

Error in Judgment

 

So, after the Yankees got away with the torpedo bats there was all of this smoke about how the Yankees would never be properly penalized for anything. And they were kind of right, the Yankees have just been penalized improperly ever since.

The umpiring against this team lately. Good lord. It's not exactly costing us games, so it's not the kind we can really take to task, but it's been terrible. First Jazz Chisholm gets tossed for disagreeing with a call, then gets suspended for tweeting 'not even close' about it after the game. Then yesterday, Aaron Judge hits a home run that the umps refuse to count as anything other than a foul, which allows a prompt strikeout on a called strike that wasn't even close. The fact that Judge came extremely close to losing his cool and didn't, but as Aaron Boone came out to back him up he was thrown out in seconds...that's an agenda. Then after a solid minute of Boone arguing with umpires, the official scorer decides, 'hey, you know what? That Paul Goldschmidt error from two innings ago that was the only thing that came close to breaking this no-hitter Max Fried has going? Suddenly, now, at this unrelated point in the game, I think that was a hit'. 

Which was decided between innings, during a commercial break. While Fried was warming up to try and keep the no-no going into the eighth. Fried immediately giving up a hit then is besides the point. It was a suspect and incomprehensible move. 

There's a sort of unwritten politeness in it, where if you're going to overturn a call, especially when a no-hitter is on the line, do it while the play is still live. Don't wait around for two innings. Because Fried went two more innings thinking he had a no-no going and needed to stay in the game. If that hit gets counted in inning 6, he doesn't need to stay in for the eighth. And in this era of MLB pitching, keeping a pitcher in past the seventh is a risky play, as you could keep him up there and within two weeks there's arm tightness. If Max Fried gets injured as a result of having to pitch the eighth when he didn't need to, that scorer needs to send Fried a check or something. Because that's entirely his fault. 

The thing that many people with status are miffed about is what Michael Kay did during the broadcast. I was watching, we cut back in with the hit on the board and Kay was PISSED. You could tell that he'd just gotten some cursing out of his system before they went live but he still had some angst leftover. The broadcast cut to the scorer who made the decision, put his name up there in big letters, BILL MATHEWS, and kept it up for 10 seconds. As Michael Kay seethed behind it. 'THERE HE IS. GET HIM'. Not verbatim but that was kind of the gist of it.

People are mad about that. They're saying it was unprofessional of Kay for spotlighting an official after a decision he didn't agree with. I honestly think it was more unprofessional to overturn an error immediately after a manager argues with your calls, but apparently the moral high ground is that Kay was the one that made the mistake and not the one who works in the field of 'getting things wrong for a living and having a good enough union to still make money from it'. 

You know what would have been unprofessional? If Kay had put Mathews' address up there. Of a picture of one of his summer homes. All he did was just figure that the fanbase should put a face to the discrepancy, and that it wasn't some elite in a suit but just some regular old guy with no deep pockets...who could probably be taken in a fistfight. 

The Yankees won the game, ultimately, and it was a shutout. But Judge still hit a home run, and Fried still had a no-no going. The officiating team was simply wrong, and will go unchecked in being wrong. And Rob Manfred is in no rush to employ automatic officiating systems because he doesn't want a union to stick him in a car boot and push him off the Golden Gate Bridge. Nothing will be done, nobody will learn, and everybody will get madder. Such is life right now.

As for the Yankees themselves, barring some infuriation, like Devin Williams just not figuring shit out in pinstripes, Chisholm and Volpe's averages, and the back half of the rotation, I like the look of this team. Judge has a .397 average, 25 RBIs, 7 homers and 31 hits. Absolutely unreal. Grisham's gotten hot as hell too, which is a pretty welcome development. This team's a little rough around the edges at the moment, but they could toughen up and go deep. Just keep those big wins coming.

Coming Tomorrow- The closest thing the Marlins have to a star hitter right now.

[P.S.- Anyone infuriated by the points made during this post can send any hate mail to BILL MATHEWS, P.O. Box 666, Tampa, FL.]

If It Wasn't Evenly Matched, That'd Have Been More Shocking

 So, one of the big series' of the weekend was Rangers-Dodgers, and it led to three very tight, low-scoring games. Of course it did.

The Dodgers are gonna be hard to beat because they just won a World Series and, in response, got even better. The Rangers are gonna be hard to beat because everyone who was hurt last year is healthy again, and the Bruce Bochy magic now works on odd years rather than even ones. Between the two teams you have some of the best players in baseball right now, a few of which didn't even factor into many of the games in this series. The knock-down/drag-out quality of just an April version of Rangers-Dodgers foreshadows the fact that this could very well be a World Series matchup.

That's certainly not something that intimidates Corey Seager, arguably one of the best postseason performers of the last decade. By 31, he's a two-time World Series MVP, and a two-time World Series champion. He's responsible for 19 postseason home runs and 48 postseason RBIs, 20 of those happening during the 2020 playoffs. His last three seasons with Texas he's hit 30+ home runs, a feat made even bigger when you factor in that he never crossed 30 with the Dodgers, even though, surrounded by Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy, he never really needed to. And now that Seager's paired with Pedey again, uh...Pedey's not really hitting too well. No matter. Seager's hitting .304 with 4 homers and 6 RBIs already.

The thing about Seager, which is interesting to talk about the week he faces the battery of Betts, Ohtani and Freeman, three surefire future HOFers, is that Seager's HOF case is...borderline. He played on some of the biggest teams of the decade and was the difference-maker on them, had 4 seasons of 5 WAR or more, and placed high among the best contact hitters of his day. His career WAR at the moment is 38, which isn't...crazy, but you also think that if he hadn't gotten injured a bunch of times that'd be in the 50 zone by now. And that would be the factor that keeps Seager from fully recognized greatness, those injury numbers, especially during the Dodgers years. It's why the Dodgers were so willing to let him go...and why the Rangers were so pleasantly surprised that, by and large, he's held together ever since. 

As Seager has become one of the more crucial Rangers, somehow Teoscar Hernandez has fit into LA perfectly. I wasn't sure how much of a presence he'd have in LA, after a fairly middle of the road 2023 in Seattle, but Teoscar has become one of the most lovable parts of an already easy to enjoy Dodgers lineup. Last season with the Dodgers, Teoscar topped his old single season HR total with 33, not counting the 3 he'd blast during the postseason. Three more and he'll top 200 total, as he's already knocked 5 this season. Tesocar is the new cheesy power guy, and unlike your standard grade Max Muncy, he's got the occasional defensive perk and some contact moments. He's now started two different all-star games for two different teams, and he's still a big part of this current Dodgers lineup. Arguably there are more versatile bats, but somebody like Teoscar is perfect for this team, and it's no wonder he's already found his fanbase in LA.

The success of Tesocar, and the Dodgers' lineup in general, is distracting from some pitching woes, like some more starting roulette. Already Snell and Glasnow have gotten hurt, and Landon Knack, Bobby Miller and Justin Wrobleski have all struggled in fill-in starts. It helps that the core of the rotation, Yamamoto, Sasaki and May, has been pretty good so far, but this is the exact kind of musical chairs shit they went through last year, and you'd think they'd have ironed out the kinks by now. Half the guys who should be here, Gonsolin and Kershaw mostly, are still rehabbing. Now even relievers are getting in on the fun, as Blake Treinen and Michael Kopech are out for a bit. You really shouldn't be putting that many eggs in Luis Garcia's basket, not at this age. At the very least a new reliever named Jack Dreyer who I've never heard of has been phenomenal in that position, but who knows how long it'll be before he burns out as well.

Like...it says a lot where, of the two teams, LA's rotation is more of a liability. The Rangers have Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Nate Eovaldi. And their backup choice is Patrick Corbin, who's been surprisingly pretty good despite being bitten by an animal before his last start, which is genuinely one of the funniest things I've ever heard. Falling in the shower is nothing, here's Patrick Corbin getting bitten by a spider and suddenly becoming phenomenal. After Wade Miley and Noah Syndergaard, the Marvel superhero motifs are just gonna work for me every time.

Anyway, Rangers-Dodgers is fascinating even now. We may see it again later. It may be even more fascinating. 

Coming Tomorrow- He's already hit a ton of home runs this season, but it's one he didn't hit that people are talking about. 

Shota in the Dark

 

The thing about the Cubs right now is...I mean, they look good. Statistically there's a lot that stands out. And you could make the argument that they're looking this good because of those two extra Japan games, but like...they lost those games. It's not THAT much stat beefing. I look at the stretch they've had since and there have been some huge moments. Multiple runaway games, including beating the Dodgers 16-0. One of the best starts by anyone in the game right now. A backup catcher hitting .419 in 31 at-bats. I don't think the extra games have much to do with that.

If anything, the early start has created narratives that have already elapsed. Matt Shaw's unspectacular rookie run at third, which has given way to Jon Berti. Justin Steele's excellent start, leading the MLB in wins before being out for the rest of the season. The return of 'Is PCA really up to this whole majors thing?' discourse before he suddenly started hitting. We've gotten all that out of our system, and a very good baseball team still remains. 

Look at Shota Imanaga so far, proving his 2024 wasn't just a fluke. So far he's 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 21 Ks. With Steele gone, Imanaga seems like a trustworthy guy to have at the head of the rotation. There's a lot of those this year, an emphasis on veterans, people like Taillon and Rea and Boyd just hanging around and doing good work. The empty space that Kyle Hendricks left isn't exactly felt, there are enough people doing exactly what they should. With Wesneski gone the one less-tested starter is Ben Brown, and he's at the very least gone 2-1 with 20 Ks. 

After so many years, the Cubs have developed a really strong core, emphasizing contact over all else, where so many different people can be the hero. All of Tucker, Busch, Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki and PCA are all hitting very well, and can all perform in vital situations. PCA has 23 hits and 7 steals. Tucker has 6 homers and 21 RBIs. Busch is hitting .306, proving he's much more versatile than we all thought. So much is really impressing me about this lineup, in a way where Swanson taking a second to heat up isn't worrying me too much. 

I'm very happy with how the Cubs have started the season, but I also know that these teams tend to bend at unfortunate times. The Brewers are gaining, and building their own very good team, and the Cubs are now only a few games ahead of them. If they've got more 10+ run wins in them I'll be comforted, but until they really cushion themselves I'm gonna hold my applause. They may look like a new, dominant Cubs team, but they still haven't made the playoffs since everybody left. We'll see if this version starts a new trend.

Coming Tonight: Perhaps the most valuable player in the league that may never break the tier into superstardom. 

Their Own Sku?

 

I always used to get Tarik Skubal and Kris Bubic mixed up. Both were brought up around the same time as a bigger pitching prospect [Mize and Singer], both were injured for a solid year and were sort of relegated to the background upon coming back, and both have interesting names. Bubic always stuck out to me because he looked like a cross between the kid from the Wonder Years and Barry Keoghan. Just some young smirky kid who just had no luck whatsoever [a lot like Barry Keoghan in everything he's ever been in, including his relationship with Sabrina Carpenter [people over like 35 can just tune this bit out]]. Last year the rotation was full and there was a whole thing of 'is he just gonna be a bullpen guy now? Is somebody gonna trade for him?', and the Royals clearly saw something in him, cause they traded Singer to make rotation space for him.

So the Royals are working with a rotation of Lugo-Ragans-Lorenzen-Wacha-Bubic right now, and somehow Bubic is the standout. Kinda like Tarik Skubal in Detroit last year. Coming out of virtually nowhere and making a name for himself.

In fairness, unlike Skubal, Bubic came into some trouble with the Yankees. But aside from that he's been brilliant. So far he's got a 1.88 ERA, he's 2-1 and he's struck out 27. Maybe not a huge bar considering Ragans has struck out 42 already, but just some dominant, respectable stuff. Bubic is 27, meaning that if anything's going to happen then it had better happen soon, and the way things are going it's looking like this is the year. Ragans is still strong at the top of the rotation, and the others are at the very least catching up.

The difference maker so far for the Royals has been the bullpen. You saw all the pieces slowly come onto this team last year but fail to coexist. And Lucas Ecreg's injury is kind of a small issue. But Carlos Estevez, Hunter Harvey, Daniel Lynch and John Schreiber have all banded together to form a really nice pack for this 'pen. Harvey's yet to allow a run so far. Estevez already has 5 saves and is looking like his Anaheim self [meaning he really just does better in smaller markets]. Erceg before the injury was pretty rad too, and hopefully he won't be out for too long.

So...pitching-wise, generally, the Royals are in business. The issue is the hitting. Aside from Bobby Witt it's just not really happening right now. Perez, Pasquantino and India are cold. Renfroe's hitting .130. M.J. Melendez got sent down to the minors today. Nobody has more than 2 home runs, or more than 13 RBIs. It's a very quiet, meager bunch, and that's why they're under .500 a year after making the playoffs. Maybe it's the schedule, maybe it's a cold front, but these guys aren't showing up. I'd hate for them to waste such a breakout pitching year.

Hopefully it all comes together, but I, as a fantasy owner, am beginning to lose my patience with Vinnie Pasquantino. The man has always been in position to do great things, and it'd be nice if he did some.

Coming Tomorrow- His start to the season may not be as legendary to his start to 2024, but he's still made a lot of fans in Chicago. 

Jesus of Philadelphia

 

Zack Wheeler, who everyone has expected to continue his incredible 2020s run, is off to a pedestrian start. 3.73 ERA, 2-1 record, 41 Ks but more middling starts than ever. It is early, and if anyone can balance things out it's him...plus, after last night's start he's finally looking like himself again. But between his shaky first couple starts, Suarez getting hurt and Nola getting lit up every game, there hasn't been a lot starting pitching wise for Phillies fans to hold onto. They had Taijuan Walker for a second but then he regressed. 

So it's a good thing that Jesus Luzardo, a guy the Phillies cleverly grabbed from Miami, has been absolutely stellar so far for us. 

Luzardo's main issues in his career so far, in Oakland and Miami, have been opportunities and injuries. With the A's, he either was hurt or struggled when he got the ball, hence the trade to Miami. There he had plenty of opportunities but the injuries continued. Now he's in Philly, and they've given him a dedicated rotation spot, not going anywhere. And so far he's been in very good shape, both health-wise and consistency-wise. Through 4 starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA, 21 Ks and a 1.071 WHIP. He's been dominant, reliable and very capable in big game situations. This weekend he's gonna face his old team for the first time, and considering the quality of the Marlins' season thus far the odds are looking very good for him.

Let's also make clear that Cristopher Sanchez has also been pretty great right next to him in the rotation. He's 2-0 with a 2.96 ERA and 31 Ks, which was a high bar til Zack Wheeler struck out 13. People worry about this team aging too quickly, and while that's valid, they've got a ton of people to keep the momentum going, and Sanchez and Luzardo are chief among them. Bryson Stott also falls into that category, he's been handy as hell so far, as does Orion Kerkering, who's been one of our best relievers.

But the old standbys are also doing us well at the moment. Bryce Harper is still elite, with 11 RBIs and 5 homers. Kyle Schwarber has 7 homers so far and a .286 average, which is definitely a step up from his usual mark. Even Castellanos is batting around .300. It is worrying that Marsh and Bohm have been terrible so far, but perhaps they're just getting it out of their system. Same with Jordan Romano...I hope.

The Phils have been very good so far, even if they're not overpoweringly good. They managed to keep the Giants at bay for the most part, but dropped a bunch to the Cardinals. The Mets are ahead of the division, and THEY have had no trouble with the Cardinals so far. The Phillies need to catch up and get everyone on the same page as people like Luzardo, or else the worries of many pundits will be proven true.

Coming Tonight: A guy I think could be 2024's answer to Tarik Skubal. He's lurked, he's recovered from an injury, and now he's looking really good.