The Downside of Small-Balling

 

In retrospect, perhaps trading away Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor, only signing two oft-injured starters and a 39-year-old defensive whiz, and re-emphasizing a youth movement that hasn't been trusted to star in games yet wasn't a very good idea.

So now here we are. The Cleveland Guardians lost 10 games in a row, as the AL Central gets further and further out of their grasp. The truth is that there really isn't much to this team anymore. At best you'll get a good start from Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee, or a mondo-RBI event from Jose Ramirez. At worst you'll see them get absolutely clobbered with no run support to speak of. This was a team that nearly dethroned the Yankees last year, and did so with guys nobody had heard of like Jhonkensy Noel, Joey Cantillo, Kyle Manzardo and Tim Herrin, and now literally none of them really factor into this team. 

And that's really the issue with this contact-first metric the Guardians have gone with: it's not consistent. With the exception of Ramirez and Steven Kwan, guys who'll have a contact frenzy one year will completely bottom out the next one. Brayan Rocchio, David Fry, Angel Martinez and Lane Thomas are all having really disappointing seasons. Rocchio was expected to step up following Gimenez's trade, and he now just looks lost out there. He's not hitting, he's below average defensively, it's pointless. Fry, an all-star last season, is hitting .150 as a bench bat. 

The most frustrating development has been the regression of Emmanuel Clase, who, for two months, was blowing saves left and right after years of dominance in the ninth. He's catching up since June, has lowered his ERA to 3.19, and at the very least has 19 saves, but Clase looks human again. Even if he excels the rest of the season, which is likely, people will remember his April slip-ups. And it's not like we haven't seen this before from Clase, but it happening now when so much more is expected of him hurts more. The bullpen in general is just spottier than usual, with a lot of ERAs closer to 3 and 4 than last year's sea of 1.50s. Gavin Williams is the only pitcher on this staff with a WAR higher than 1. 

It is nice, though, that the Guardians seem to be turning things around now that the Astros are playing them. They've won their last 2 games, and have just looked a ton better. I'd love for a sweep to happen and for the momentum to shift a little. But at this point, the Guardians are just looking to finish over .500, which is a far cry from where they were last year.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most talented young infielders in the game right now.

Making All Stops

 

Two teams in freefall getting together for a subway series was never gonna go well. It's a wonder that any of these teams came out of this series with their dignity in tact, but the Mets didn't lose a starter to Tommy John again, nor did they have a shortstop make a series of boneheaded errors. 

I had the misfortune of watching some of the July 4th game while around my Staten Island-based cousins, and while there are a few Yankee fans in there, a lot of people were rooting for the other team. And so as the Yankees ended up spiraling out and the Mets' lineup started beating up Stroman, I just sort of shuddered and went about my drinking. The Mets started a no-name starter based one town over from me, who they were forced to start because their pitchers keep getting injured, and they still won the game because the Yankees managed to find a way to suck more. 

Both of these teams have similar issues, honestly. In both cases, the lineup will pick choice moments to not show up. It's happening now for the Yankees. Judge is slowing down, Stanton's been anemic, Wellsy's been slacking. At the very least Cody Bellinger has been stepping up more, as he now has 13 homers and 47 RBIs. But the May momentum is gone because the lineup just isn't there. The Mets went through this before, but now they're getting production from Alonso, Lindor, Soto, McNeil and the works. Brandon Nimmo, even in what's knowingly a lesser year, has 18 homers and 52 RBIs. You can play the whole 'we traded away PCA' game for hours but ultimately this team has hit its way to 50 homers when the Yankees haven't yet. Even in that period where the Mets weren't winning games, which was fun by the way, they didn't look as bad as the Yankees did in their drought. You didn't hear about how bad the Mets were, because they still managed to score runs. 

The other problem these teams share is the back half of their rotations. The Yankees just lost Clarke Schmidt and Ryan Yarbrough, and are down to a skeleton crew of Fried, Rodon, Warren, Stroman and a to-be-determined minor leaguer who'll have to face the Mariners in a couple days. Who will it be? Rookie Clayton Beeter? Scranton favorite Allan Winans? Hell, is this finally the moment J.T. Brubaker starts a game for us? The Mets may be in even more dire straits, because they're down to just David Peterson and Clay Holmes as viable MLB options. Yes, Frankie Montas is healthy, but like usual in New York he's getting obliterated in between injuries. Justin Hagenman did his best but...he's your 4 guy and he already feels like a last resort. In lieu of a fifth starter the Mets went with a reliever game on Sunday, and if we'd have lost that I think Aaron Boone would have lost his job. There is a belief that both Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea could be back for the weekend series against the Royals, but that's a lot of hope to throw on these guys. I've seen 'everything's gonna be alright when Senga comes back' before, and it didn't go too well last summer. And let's just hope Manaea still has some of whatever made him a Mets hero last year. 

Both the Yankees and the Mets have similar issues, and went through similar stretches. That the Mets were able to wake up first, my hat goes off to them. But this isn't a death sentence for the Yankees yet. There's still half a season to play, and still a lot of momentum to gain. We'll see how we're looking after the break.

Coming Tomorrow- For years he looked like the last true 'can't miss' closer. In April...he missed.

2025 All-Star Game Rosters: Demented Approaches

 

What I've started doing the last couple years is, a week or so before the ASG rosters are announced, I make a roster prediction. I follow the same rules, try and make sure every team gets a nod, and attempt to name what I think the league brass will think are the best reps from each league. Last year I was insanely close, there were a few picks I missed but generally I got all of them right.

This year I was way off. It wasn't even because some of my picks were too outlandish. Looking at some of these...some of my picks weren't outlandish ENOUGH.

You can tell that Manfred has more pull on who gets on than before, you can tell that it's not just the managerial decision anymore, and you can tell that viewership is on the line. That explains many of the picks that made the rosters. However, there are some picks that I'm still not 100% sure can be explained. 

So, let's go through, in detail, this year's ASG rosters, and see how spot-on I think these decisions were.

AMERICAN LEAGUE:

Starters:

C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners. Duh.

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays. I spammed a bunch of votes for Goldy at the end there but it was Vlad's year, honestly.

2B: Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers. Honestly, good for him. Deserves it.

SS: Jacob Wilson, Oakland Athletics. Arguably Witt should be starting, but for the wild factor of Wilson's rookie season I'll allow this. Besides, Witt made it anyhow. If he didn't I'd be really confused.

3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians. Another no-brainer.

OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees. Duh.

OF: Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers. Absolutely deserves it, wild that the voters agreed.

OF: Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers. Here I'd say Kwan deserved it more but I love that Baez has had himself a comeback year.

DH: Ryan O'Hearn, Baltimore Orioles. Just really illuminates how diluted the DH class is in the AL this year. All the good ones are in the NL. How the table has turned..

Reserves:

DH: Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics. Called this one. Deserves it.

1B: Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays. Woulda been weird if he didn't.

2B: Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees. This one...I did not call. And I also thought if the Yanks got another hitter on, it'd be Goldschmidt. I'm happy with this though. Jazz is awesome. Just feels out of left field considering.

2B: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays. Another easy one.

SS: Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros. I was thinking if another SS got on besides Witt it'd be Zach Neto, but this also makes sense. 

SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals. Duh. Should be starting.

3B: Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox. Will he be healthy enough to make the game? That's why I didn't include him. If not, seems likely that the guy I thought would make the team, Isaac Paredes, will replace him.

C: Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays. Called this.

OF: Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins. Makes so much sense, glad they did it.

OF: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians. Honestly he should be starting but glad he made it.

OF: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners. People are complaining about this one because his OPS is low, but I thought he'd be on, on account of his offensive production, so nyah.

Pitchers:

SP: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros. Easy one.

SP: Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals. Called this one as well.

SP: Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox. Good for him. I was worried he'd be hurt for most of the year but glad he's been a hit with Boston.

SP: Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers. Very good pick. Weird he's the only Ranger, but I predicted he'd be that too.

SP: Max Fried, New York Yankees. Be weird if he'd missed it.

SP: Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels. I had him just missing, and I made my predictions based on the allotment of more relievers. But he honestly is the right choice.

SP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers. Should get the start.

SP: Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox. As discussed, I figured the Sox pick would be a reliever like Steven Wilson, but Smith works.

SP: Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners. I personally had Rodon getting on over Woo, but I'm ultimately glad a Mariners starter made it at all.

RP: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox. This was a surprise. I think that Chapman's had an excellent comeback season, but I don't think he's one of the best relievers in the AL right now. I had Jhoan Duran getting in over him. 

RP: Josh Hader, Houston Astros. Obviously.

RP: Andres Muñoz, Seattle Mariners. Obviously. I didn't think Boone would only bring 3 relievers. I also had Carlos Estevez making it. Maybe this'll be rectified if some of these guys have to pitch the sunday.

NATIONAL LEAGUE:

Starters:

C: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers. Deserves it.

1B: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers. Lot of competition this year but still deserves it.

2B: Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks. Definitely deserves it.

SS: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets. 100%, it's about time.

3B: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres. Fantastic to see it happen.

OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs. The absolute right pick.

OF: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves. That he was able to do all this with just 40something games played this year is all the more incredible. 

OF: Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs. Glad he squeezed in over Teoscar.

DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers. I can only be so salty that Schwarber didn't get it, it's Ohtani.

Reserves:

DH: Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies. Thank god. Called this.

1B: Pete Alonso, New York Mets. Obviously. The second Freeman won the fan vote this was set in stone.

1B: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves. I actually had Riley making it but this works too. 

2B: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals. Called this one.

SS: Elly de la Cruz, Cincinnati Reds. Called this one, but not that he'd be the only Red. Greene or Abbott deserved something.

3B: Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks. Did not predict this one, but seeing as they went with Olson over Riley, it makes sense.

C: Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies. For a Rox rep I kinda get it, but over William Contreras?? I had Jake Bird as the Rockies' rep, and I guess Goodman is having the better season, but it comes off as an odd choice given the competition at catcher.

OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks. I left him out due to the injury, but I guess he has a chance to be back by the break? If not, maybe this is where Soto goes, because erroneously he was left off.

OF: Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins. Called this, and that he'd be the Marlins rep.

OF: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres. Really should be starting.

OF: James Wood, Washington Nationals. Really should have done better in the fan vote.

Pitchers:

SP: Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs. This spot went to Andrew Abbott in my predictions but I can't exactly argue with his inclusion.

SP: MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals. Predicted this one.

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers. This is yet another Rob Manfred 'this is what the fans REALLY want to see' pick, and I'd be more pissed about it if Kershaw wasn't having a strong year.

SP: Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers. I assumed there'd be more relievers on the roster and thought Trevor Megill would make it instead, but Peralta absolutely should be here.

SP: Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants. Another one I left off for reliever space, but glad this is happening.

SP: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves. I also included him, even though I'm not sure if he'll be healthy for the game. 

SP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates. Duh.

SP: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants. Absolutely. 

SP: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies. There's no question, especially after today's start.

SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers. And called this one as well.

SP: Jason Adam, San Diego Padres. For both personal reasons and because I thought Robert Suarez was a better relief pick, I did not put Adam on my predictions. But who knows, maybe Jojo Siwa will do the national anthem and he'll be afraid to set foot on the premises. 

SP: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets. No, I just don't see it. I'm not falling for it again. I just don't see how Diaz earned this more than somebody like Kyle Finnegan or Trevor Megill.

SP: Randy Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants. I mean...I guess if you're only picking 3 relievers and there aren't a ton of sure bet closers in the NL this year, it sort of makes sense to go with a really good set-up guy. I think this is a good pick. It's just so hard to tell what makes an all-star reliever for some managers. I think of guys like Tanner Scott, Robert Suarez, Kyle Finnegan and Trevor Megill, and somebody else will limit themselves to three options and pick an open homophobe, the single most inconsistent reliever in history, and one generally good pick that nobody's heard of. This is why I'm not a manager. 

So yeah, while overall I get what they were trying to do, and while I predicted a lot of these picks, there are just some that really vex me. Aroldis Chapman, Jason Adam, Edwin Diaz, Clayton Kershaw and Jazz Chisholm just weren't on my radar. 

I look forward to these rosters becoming even stranger once people start wanting to miss the game. 

Stop Me If You Think You've Heard This One Before

This Dodgers-Astros series is beginning to infuriate the hell out of me. The narrative of this season thus far has been 'we have progressed past the need for a competitive Astros team', and now we're midway through and the narrative is now 'sike, no we haven't'. We were doing fine with our fun Tigers stories and our NL West battles, and now we go back to the Astros dominating despite a train wreck of an infield and an injury roulette of a rotation. And now they're beating the shit out of the Dodgers. Just spare me. Please. It's not fun anymore. 

Like, okay, they lose Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, two very big pieces, and by absolute fricking inertia two perfect fits just slide right into place. Isaac Paredes has been beautiful at third, he's having another amazing season and has 18 homers and 48 RBIs already. And now Cam Smith is heating up in the outfield, he's hitting .292 with an .805 OPS. Like...teams are supposed to like strike out and have replacements that don't work ['y'know, like Brendan Rodgers..], but so many times, this team just falls directly into amazing luck, like some deity just thinks it's better this way. Hunter Brown becoming unhittable the year the Astros' rotation would otherwise crater is infuriatingly good timing. 

And that's how you can describe the Astros: half of it is great organizational work, the other half is scarily good timing. No other team who puts that much work and money into the product has luck like this. Even the Dodgers have lost an entire rotation. Even the Yankees are struggling now. But the Astros just keep figuring it out, to the point where Orel Hershiser suggested that there's this possibility that the Astros knew when the breaking balls were coming Friday night. Which, unless there's legitimate evidence, or a new trashcan key or something, is just gonna be a bold claim, but...if you only punish a couple people and just let everyone else do whatever they want, after a while they're gonna try and do the thing you punished them for again. Like it's proof the punishment wasn't bad enough. If you want a kid to stop stealing shit, ground him for a week and make him admit that stealing is morally bad. A somewhat stern talking-to is not gonna change behaviors, despite what some politicians would have you believe.

And it also takes the sting out of another strong Dodgers season, which has been going well even without Snell, Sasaki, Glasnow and Gonsolin. Will Smith has become a .300 hitter, which is pretty awesome considering he's already one of the best catchers in the league. Pages seems to be an everyday guy now, which is very helpful. Betts is finally getting hot, as is Conforto I think. Hyseseong Kim is the exact kind of utility whiz the Dodgers needed. 

But with all these injuries, the fact of the matter is that, once again, the Dodgers haven't been left that great of a rotation. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the only sure bet, and even he's gotten into some rough starts recently. Kershaw and May can wield excellent stuff then get clobbered, Knack is still getting there, and Wrobleski and Casparius are...not optimal options for a 1st place competitor. And yes, you have Ohtani back on the mound finally, but he's being so careful with his innings that he's not really much of a trusted starter. He's really a trusted opener right now. Meanwhile, the Astros have Brown, Framber Valdez, and three rookies who seem to be much better at getting the hang of the majors than the Dodgers's. 

That's the other thing. Both teams are riddled with injuries. The Astros also have an entire rotation's worth of injured pitchers. But they still have the momentum, and they can still get things to work because they somehow can get pitchers ready in Triple-A better than the Dodgers can. It blows my mind.

Look, there's a chance the Dodgers take back the momentum today, but I think it's best they just ride it out and regroup after the break. And then hope whatever's keeping the Astros up depletes down the line.

Coming Tonight: Probably a post complaining about the All-Star rosters.

Catch of the Day

 

The term 'system quarterback' gets thrown around a lot. Y'know, your Sam Darnolds, your Geno Smiths, guys you just plug into any coach's arsenal and you get by. I think 'system catcher' should be used around as much, because that definitely is a thing. Somebody that can be your primary catcher, and be a good choice for it, but can jive with any old organization and still do the same things. Jason Kendall was one of those for a while, he was never the star but you could throw him back there and you'd be great. Brad Ausmus falls into that category as well. And it's different from your 'career backup' guys because there's enough talent to carry the position rather than filling the role. Victor Caratini is trying to be this 'system catcher' type but is still very much a 'career backup'. Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado flirted with it but both hit a wall right when it was gonna happen. 

Carson Kelly's success tells me that, like Yan Gomes before him, he was lucky enough to wind up in Chicago, who seem to be very good at developing 'system catchers', as they've done this with Miguel Montero, Christian Bethancourt and Gomes. Kelly was in danger of becoming a career backup, but last year he had a great start with Detroit, then got swapped to Texas to back up Jonah Heim. And he was SUPPOSED to be backing up Miguel Amaya, who the Cubs were able to develop somewhat last year. But, like...when the backup catcher hits for the cycle in April, maybe the wrong guy is the backup. So the Cubs started playing Kelly more, eventually gave him the 1 spot, and now Kelly's probably looking at an ASG nod tomorrow night.

That the longtime backstop is suddenly having his best season isn't a complete surprise. His D-Backs years were solid, and sullied by injuries. In 2019, Kelly was a strong, defensively-solid catching option with the occasional offensive perk. He wasn't a team-changing guy, but he made his starts and didn't steer you wrong. The injuries just let the D-Backs lose sight of that, and by 2022 he wasn't as reliable, so in came Gabriel Moreno [who, uh...is injured]. I think it's the case of fellow system catcher Travis d'Arnaud, a guy that had promise with a team that needed him but just couldn't stay healthy, then figured everything out after finding the right organizational fit. And Chicago seems to be that for Carson Kelly, as he's currently hitting .264 with 10 homers, 30 RBIs and some excellent catching numbers. He's also got an .858 OPS, which is a large step upward for him.

The theme of this Cubs team seems to be guys that struggled elsewhere suddenly clicking in this one place. There's an entire bullpen full of former starters who are killing it as relief options this year [Chris Flexen, Drew Pomeranz, Brad Keller]. One of the team's best hitters is Michael Busch, who was traded by the Dodgers, and is now hitting .288 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs as the team's starting 1st baseman. Four of the stars of this Cubs team are guys who took forever to really get going in Chicago, so that when they did it was all the more exciting. And one of them's leaping to superstardom this year. 

The Cubs, for the first time since arguably 2016, are finally the team of circumstance again. The team of everything happening for the right reasons. Yes, Taillon just got hurt, and I worry about what Cade Horton and Ben Brown are gonna do now, but the success of Carson Kelly is proof that things can just come together on this team now. And that's gonna be important down the line.

Coming Tomorrow- A rookie for the Astros who has immediately shifted to making me sad. 

When I Am King..

 

It is looking like, as we near the official midway point of the 2025 season, that the most important, and most dominant, team in the AL is the Detroit Tigers. And MAN does it feel refreshing to say that. There have been so many mediocre Tigers teams, so many teams with absolutely nothing going on, and so many completely mailed-in attempts at a rebuild, that hitting upon one that actually works feels legitimately satisfying. And I'm not even a Tigers fan. I just got really sick of seeing this organization not try, and now they've built a competitor. I wish all teams could get there.

But something that also feels like a shifting of tides is that this year, the team with the most all-star starters in the AL is not the Yankees, or the Astros, or even the Mariners. It is the Detroit Tigers. Three players wound up in the voting finals, and all three got their positions handily. Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez's ASG nods were the result of successful campaigning by the Detroit Tigers' fanbase, a fanbase that hasn't gotten anybody from this team on a roster since roughly Miguel Cabrera. 

The Tigers' 3 starters is more than any other team that isn't the Dodgers. And from an angle that seems not as good, because of course the Dodgers are the best, and everyone expects them to do well, and of course they have the most starters. Well...the Dodgers have 3 guys starting the ASG. There were more up for it. Tommy Edman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez were all nominees in the final round of voting, and none of them got it. They could have had 7 starters, and the voters weren't very compelled to rep all of them. They could do it for Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, and of course they rallied for Ohtani, but that's four people that even the most die-hard Dodger fans were alright not seeing in this all-star game. So they're only sending three, which at the moment is as many as the Tigers, though the Tigers might have another rep start the game at this rate. 

I used to get mad at people campaigning for ASG spots when their players didn't deserve it. There was one year the Cardinals had like 5 starters and it really wasn't warranted. The Royals did this around the same period. The Rangers a couple years ago had this even before they were a World Series team. And, like...if they deserve it, it's alright. The 2016 Cubs had their entire infield start the All-Star Game, and this is when all four of Rizzo, Russell, Zobrist and Bryant were having excellent years. This Tigers thing I can't be mad at, because not only is the team terrific, but I would file these players as the best at their position. Baez is somewhat marginal because he's a multi-position guy, but I'm glad he was able to get back here and savor the moment. Greene is having a phenomenal year, with 21 homers and 69 RBIs already. Gleyber's come into his own outside of the smoke of New York, he's hitting .279 with 9 homers and 42 RBIs. And Skubal is well on the way to a 20-win year, and deserves to start. 

The Tigers have built something great, and they just need it to last. What's beginning to worry me is the back half of the rotation, as there are so many injured starters that they're resorting to an opener game every fifth day. Hopefully Gipson-Long or Olson comes back soon, but for now Sku-Flaherty-Mize-Montero is working pretty well. The bullpen is strong as ever, the whole lineup has substantial answers everywhere [except shortstop honestly], and even this Kerry Carpenter injury isn't scaring me too much.

The Tigers have made great progress, but they need to be aware that now the eyes are on them. They're the 2015 Royals. They went from a fluke Wild Card team to a league giant. That team, however, went all the way. Can the Tigers?

Coming Tomorrow- He came just short of an ASG gig himself, but honestly just getting to start games again is enough of a win. 

June 2025 in Review [ft. Trea Turner]

 

From June, I expected regime changes, Kyle Schwarber home runs, blistering heat and unforgettable feats, and from that this month did not disappoint. Already we're seeing the true storylines of this season emerge, whether I like them or not. 

So first, let's look back at the 5 predictions I made last month and see how well I did:

1. Very big comeback from an injury, and it's 100% worth the wait. I suppose Ronald Acuna counts.

2. There were a lot of streaks coming from mid-level competitors in the central divisions this month. In June there'll be a nice streak from a major metro era with a huge competitor. Not really, honestly. 

3. Topps really doesn't have a big selling point for 2025 Update Series yet, and the rookie cutoff date is fastly approaching. I predict one more mega-rookie jumps in, and even if it ends up being Cole Young I'll accept it. Well, seeing as the cutoff was like mid-May this year because Fanatics doesn't know what the hell they're doing, Young will have to wait til 2026, as will Chase Burns, Jacob Misiorowski, Roman Anthony and Christian Moore. 

4. Schwarber in June is as big as advertised. Surprisingly this was a down month for him. He only hit .214 with 14 RBIs and only 6 of his trademark dingers. This still puts him at 25 through 3 months, which is still great stuff, but not to his usual June standard.

5. The year so far has been dominated, mostly, by the Yankees and Dodgers again. In June, we may see what the real narrative ends up being. [It make take a couple months to verify this]. Well, the big standout teams of this month weren't exactly the Yanks and Dodgers..

And so, that segues perfectly into this next bit: 5 things from June 2025 that no one could have predicted:

1. The Tigers might be a new league giant. Nobody has a cushion in 1st like the Tigers do, and for a team that was the definition of ineptitude for a decade, it's a welcome feeling. The Tigers are coasting on terrific seasons from Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Javier Baez and Gleyber Torres, and breakout years from Dillon Dingler, Will Vest and more. People who used to doom this team, like Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize, are filing in as integral members. Greene's going for 100 RBIs, Sku's going for 20 wins, Dietrich Enns is going for the most inexplicable comeback in years. You absolutely love to see it, and at 53-32, very few teams are doing it better than the Tigers. 

2. Jacob Misiorowski outduels Paul Skenes. I watched this game, and it was not as cut-and-dry as you might think. Going in they knew Miz would have limited innings, but he only allowed 1 or 2 hits. Skenes's hits did him in and the Brewers small-balled their way to some runs. Both pitchers are excellent right now, but Miz is working on a completely different level, and somehow made Paul Skenes look inferior during a season where he's destined for Cy Young votes. 

3. The Marlins are trending upward. The Miami Marlins have won 7 straight games, just got Derek Hill back, and could very well overtake the Braves for third place. For a team with such pitching issues, and such frequent disappointment, it's an incredible development. The new cast of young, scrappy contact hitters have given the Marlins some character, and with Agustin Ramirez, Heriberto Hernandez and Liam Hicks factoring heavily into the team, you're seeing signs of something that really could take off in the next few years. I don't expect long term damage from this team, not with this rotation, but it's more lively than they've been in a while.

4. Cal Raleigh is going for history. No catcher has had a season like this, and you'd have to go as far back as someone like Roy Campanella to see a catcher really race the leaderboard on homers. Raleigh is currently at 33 home runs, and 79 RBIs, and for this kind of defensive production to happen even before the ASG break is pretty incredible. Raleigh was always capable of a season like this, and to see him on a tear like never before is really cool. It makes comeback seasons from Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford and Randy Arozarena look comparatively quaint. 

5. Boston gives up on Devers immediately. All the Giants needed to offer was Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks and a prospect. That was it. The Sox weren't looking for a king's ransom, they just wanted to get rid of the guy. Now, in 13 games since coming to SF, Devers only has 2 homers and 5 RBIs, but he's got room now. He's in a place where he's not at the management's throats. The Sox, meanwhile, have only gotten worse since Devers left. 

And on the opposite side of that, here are 5 things from June 2025 that lots of people probably predicted.

1. The back half of the rotation does the Mets in. Losing Senga made it all the more clear how much work the middle of the rotation had been doing. Then give Peterson, Megill and Holmes more prominent roles and it becomes clear that Paul Blackburn and Frankie Montas just aren't gonna be the answer right now. And thus...the Mets are sinking fast.

2. Tyler Mahle and Royce Lewis get injured. Daring, aren't we?

3. The Mariners fail to keep Houston out of first. As good as the Mariners are, and as much as they've accumulated this year, when faced with the prospect of keeping the Astros from advancing they're basically a kid tripping over his shoelaces and not thinking to tie them. You knew that a slump was coming, and of course it came right when the Astros got hot. Hopefully the Mariners can recuperate, but...knowing them it won't e easy.

4. The Phillies aren't exactly screwed without Harper for a few weeks. Trea Turner stepped up, with a .295 average, a league-leading 101 hits and 20 steals. This is the kind of hero performance we needed when we signed Turner, and he came through. Now that Harper's back the pressure's off, but he's still a very helpful presence. Plus, with Wheels rolling you don't really need to worry too much. 

5. Marcus Semien always needs a month or so to start doing Marcus Semien things. After posting .200 or under the first two months, Semien, as he does, woke up in June, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. This likely means he'll be surging for the rest of the season now. 

Now, here are, for my money, the 5 Most Important Players of June 2025:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

3. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

4. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

5. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

And finally, here's 5 bold predictions for July 2025:

1. At least one late All-Star roster addition that makes absolutely no sense.

2. The Dodgers get at least one crucial pitcher back, and he makes a difference.

3. The AL Central currently lacks an underdog competitor, with the Tigers out in front, and I say one emerges next month. 

4. Rafael Devers isn't the only guy that gets unceremoniously yanked out of Boston this summer.

5. Brian Cashman does something ridiculous. 

And that was June. Hopefully July's similarly fun to follow.

For All the Cows

 

It's important to point out that the Orioles are currently above .500 during the Tony Mansolino era. I'm not sure if Mansolino himself was the factor that sparked this improvement, or if it was just the activation of a bunch of nice players at once, or even just me sitting in on a game at the beginning of June, but regardless, the Orioles are closer to a good baseball team now. Not completely one, but closer to resembling one.

The bad news is that Adley Rutschman is out til after the break, and there's still a rotation's worth of pitchers on the IL. The good news is that the people the O's have recently gotten back have been extremely helpful in turning the team around. Colton Cowser, who was very good in his rookie year, has been excellent recently, with a .257 average since coming off the IL, 5 homers and 13 RBIs. If I could do last year over again, I'd have traded Cowser instead of Kyle Stowers, but the truth was that Stowers wasn't a proven success in the majors yet and Cowser was killing it. Having Cowser surging is a big reason why the O's have gone 17-11 since May 28th.

Another big factor is the arrival of an actual good starting pitcher, and by that I don't mean Charlie Morton clinging to the last throes of life this month. Surprisingly I mean Trevor Rogers, whose acquisition last year felt like one of the dumbest things the Orioles had done in some time. A guy who immediately got hurt was worth Norby and Stowers? BS. Well, now Rogers is healthy and actually putting something decent together this year, lowering his ERA to 2.05 and showing true dominance in all four of his starts so far. This is what Rogers can do when he is healthy. The only strange part is that it happens so infrequently, and that it's happened while basically everyone else is hurt. I hope his good fortune persists, and I hope some of the other guys can join in on that.

I think the best case scenario for this Orioles team is that they build a little through the second half, maybe lose one or two pieces [Mullins is getting mentioned by GMs, maybe Laureano gets dealt too to make way for another young guy], and still be generally seen as a player to compete. I think seeing a better year from Jackson Holliday, getting consistent production from Henderson and Cowser, and at least some signs of life from the pitching [Bautista, Kremer, Sugano and Baker have been great] is still promising even as the team circles last, and I think that Rays comeback and some other big wins this year have made it a lot more likely that the O's could stay out of last this year. 

Coming Tonight: He was very good at fulfilling the 'team hero' spot while Bryce Harper was gone.

Bird Watching

 

Something that's very surprising about the Colorado Rockies, even as they continue to tank in their quest for a twentieth win before July 1st, is that as awful as both their starting pitching and hitting is...the bullpen's honestly pretty good. The majority of top of the leaderboard is just relievers right now. Hunter Goodman, Ryan McMahon, Jordan Beck and some relievers. And that may be the reason the Rockies might not be a lock for the 'worst ever' status anymore, because as bad as they are, for like 3 or 4 innings per game they're not bleeding as badly.

Like, my guess is the Rockies' ASG nod will be Jake Bird this year, because statistically he's the best player on the team. Highest WAR, 2nd-lowest ERA--Bird may be the only person in Denver who's actually doing his job correctly. In 47 innings, Bird has a 2.68 ERA, 57 Ks [third-most on the Rockies], and a 1.8 WAR. This would be a good relief season for, like, the Dodgers. For anybody. Bird, like Daniel Bard and Carlos Estevez before him, has taken the thankless job of relieving games in Denver and actually succeeded at it. Victor Vodnik is also having a really nice year, with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.225 WHIP. Vodnik, unlike Bird, is a young, homegrown piece that the Rockies can really develop. Zach Agnos is like that too, though Agnos has fallen off a bit since his strong April. 

And even guys who got a roster spot over shoveling shit in Durham or something are actually helping this team. Jimmy Herget, who's played everywhere, has a 3.02 ERA in 41.2 innings. Seth Halvorsen seems to be the go-to guy for the ninth inning, and while 6 saves is nothing to scratch at, it's more than anybody has for the White Sox. It's a decent enough unit that can mop up the messes made by guys like Kyle Freeland, Carson Palmquist and Antonio Senzatela. My big takeaway is that, god forbid if the bullpen was really a nightmare, the Rockies would have brought up Jefry Yan by now. Jefry Yan was the relief guy they had in Spring Training who'd do these big leaps when he got an out, and was this ridiculously wild character that just couldn't make the team on account of his inconsistency. Yan, for the record, currently has a 6 ERA in Albuquerque. But you know that if the Rocks were dying and needed to fill seats, they'd bring him up. 

That should say something. As bad as the Rockies are, they have yet to resort to gimmicks.

Anyhow, the rest of the team is miserable, as you'd expect. Beck, Goodman and Moniak are hitting but it's not pretty. Tovar's hurt and Ryan Ritter is doing his best filling SS. I reckon Zac Veen will get another shot once the herd is thinned in a month or so, and hopefully it'll go a little better. They play the Astros two more excruciating games, and then Rox-White Sox, the series of the year, is this weekend. Can't you feel the excitement??

Coming Tomorrow- One of the guys whose return has fueled a surprise resurgence in Baltimore.

Where It Kurtz

 

Even if the A's don't finish above .500 this year, they will still finish the year without completely fading into the background. There are things this team has been doing to command attention all season. Tyler Soderstrom had his home run lead in April. Jacob Wilson is parlaying his amazing rookie year into an ASG appearance. Toronto-born Denzel Clarke has been leading the season in unforgettable outfield grabs, and may continue this for a while. And now you have Nick Kurtz, with 12 homers in 45 games. Remember, Soderstrom, who was piling up homers before, has 14 in 85 games. 

The home run guys in Sacramento...they're multiplying. 

We already had Brent Rooker, who thankfully started getting hot this month, he's at 17 homers and 44 RBIs. Soderstrom followed behind, and looks to be a similarly great power bat. Kurtz has been very hot as of late, homered Saturday against the Yanks and even snuck in a run yesterday during the rout. Kurtz isn't special at 1st, and isn't great on the base paths, but he's 22 years old and can already hit MLB pitching. Yet ironically Max Muncy, but not that one, is 22 and has been up for a similar amount of time and isn't hitting at all, much like past infield phenom Kevin Smith, also not that one nor that one. 

Even as the A's pray the Vegas stadium goes off without a hitch and suffers through playing in a minor league stadium [Severino's thoughts on this were well reported, and come off as a lot funnier now that he's gotten lit up in Yankee Stadium as well], they are still building a core. If they weren't I'd be worried, I mean this isn't the Pirates after all. But Kurtz has joined pieces like Wilson, Soderstrom, Rooker, Lawrence Butler and Mason Miller as foundational pieces for what could be an eventual run. They've got a ways to go in terms of filling things out, and there's still a few pieces [Clarke, Max Schuemann, Zach Gelof] where I'm not sure if they're starter pieces or long haul pieces, but you can see a ballclub here, for once.

The starting pitching still worries me, though, because I don't see as many long term answers there. Severino, Springs, Sears and Lopez can fill innings for now, but basically every homegrown young fireballer has gotten injured immediately. It happened to Joe Boyle, it happened to Gunnar Hoglund, I assume it's happened to Joey Estes. Juggling 32 year olds is not gonna be the way forward, they need a guy they can build a rotation around. And he really hasn't arrived yet, even if J.P. Sears is fundamentally the closest they've gotten.

The A's are a better team now than they've been since the exodus, and are close to getting out of punchline status, but they're maybe a few more trusted pieces away from really getting there. Once they don't have to trot out Luis Urias and Gio Urshela every game I'll be a little more excited.

Coming Tonight: The most likely Colorado Rockie to make the All-Star team.

30 Runs Later

 

On paper, Pirates-Mets should have been cut and dry. The Mets have more pieces, more momentum, more goodwill, and even if they've fallen out of 1st they're still hanging into the race. The Pirates have Paul Skenes and that's about it. So many of their best players just aren't hitting this year. They've been trying to build something and they haven't really gotten anywhere. And as an added bonus for the Mets, they didn't even have to play Skenes during this season. It should have been simple.

Instead, the Pirates scored 30 points, limited the Mets to four, and asserted absolute dominance over a genuinely good Mets team. It is...genuinely very funny. I think, because the Marlins are getting hot, people will try and pitch this as 'the Pirates are catching fire', but I think it was just a case of circumstances lining up. The Mets started two lower-tier pieces [Paul Blackburn and the just-promoted Frankie Montas], couldn't muster anything from their starters and thus got trounced. 

Yet, at the same time, this series was also a showcase of what the Pirates can be when they choose to line up the moments where they're good at baseball. Bryan Reynolds. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham and Mitch Keller all decided to come together over the course of this series and provide multiple great moments. Pham had a bunch of RBIs. Cruz had a two-homer game today. Hayes had a big day yesterday. Reynolds has slowly been gaining ground at the plate. Keller actually won a game for the first time since March. This is what the Pirates could be if they weren't so preoccupied with settling. Cause you're seeing even some younger players like Henry Davis and Mike Burrows, who are flirting with actually performing well but not ready to commit yet. 

In the absence of truly overpowering seasons, a lot of simply good seasons are setting the tone in Pittsburgh. Bailey Falter isn't the showiest starter out there, and the Phils traded him for this very reason, but with the Pirates he's become a great 'room tone' pitcher. Falter is someone who just chugs along without striking too many people out or overexerting himself too much. He just gets the job done. Right now he's 6-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.218 WHIP. For this team, that's pretty great. He's no Skenes, but Skenes is 4-7. Falter seems to be the guy the Pirates' offense shows up most often behind, and it's given him a season he can be proud of. 

It also helps that the Pirates' bullpen is surprisingly really good. A lot was made of David Bednar's rough start but he's come back around, with a 2.83 ERA and now 11 saves. Dennis Santana and his 1.50 ERA have made a real difference with this team, and I can almost undeniably say that the Pirates are gonna miss him when he's unceremoniously traded to Atlanta in a month. Caleb Ferguson, Chase Shugart, Isaac Mattson, they've all been really nice in relief. Plus they just got Genesis Cabrera, and hopefully he becomes a nice guy for them. Hell, even rookie Braxton Ashcraft seems to be a keeper.

If anything, this weekend showed that even amidst the torture of the Nutting regime, there are still signs of life, and there are still moments where this team can come together. Just not enough of them. Enough to ensure they won't be the worst team in the league, but not enough to actually start anything.

Coming Tomorrow- A rookie power bat who, to his credit, did some damage against my team this weekend.

What on the White Sox is ASG-Worthy??

 

Okay, so...the All-Star Game's coming up in a few weeks. Voting for the starters is wrapping up this week. Then Boone and Roberts go about deciding the rest of the rosters. In that comes the tricky business of deciding at least one nominee from each team, even the crappier ones. For some, it's easier than others: I think the nominee for Pittsburgh is a done deal, and I could *guess* who'd get picked from Colorado but it wouldn't exactly sell merch. But this is how the ASG works, every team is accounted for, and every team has good players on them worthy of merit.

But...how do you reward a team like the White Sox? Who on this team should be remembered for anything? Last year at least they had Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, now they have a lot of young no-names, a few veterans who aren't hitting, and some fringe guys doing their thing. Who do you recognize from that? Who do you put next to people like Bobby Witt Jr., Tarik Skubal and Cal Raleigh? 

Well...I have some ideas. They're not all good ideas, but they're ideas. So let's see

-Miguel Vargas. Statistically, Vargas is the White Sox's best player. Yes, he's only hitting .234, but he's got 10 homers and 34 RBIs. In May he hit .263 with 7 homers and 17 RBIs. He's accurate, he doesn't strike out much, he's good at contact and he's a young, hip infielder the fanbase can hopefully get around. My issue with Vargas is that there really isn't much to him. Like, what can you say about those stats? Oh great, he's...producing but not advancing, and if he was still in LA he'd be benched for this. I think logically Vargas has the best chance of getting a nod, but I don't think on its own these stats would be ASG-worthy. Similarly,

-Chase Meidroth. Big rookie contact guy. Steals bases, plays great 2nd base, hitting .263. It's good for this team, but considering that Jacob Wilson will be on the ASG team, it doesn't make sense. If you're putting up a rookie, they've gotta be really burning the league down, and Jacob Wilson is doing that as a contact bat. Comparatively Meidroth has 56 hits in 58 games, which is good but not the same. 

-Shane Smith. He set some records early, had some great starts, and the White Sox are coming off a season with a true rotation standout. Smith has started 15 games, has a 3.38 ERA, 68 Ks and a 1.272 WHIP. Those are good numbers. They maaay be enough to sneak him into an SP spot, but considering how contentious the starting positions are for this roster, and considering that there's a lot of great pitchers [Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, Bryan Woo, Chris Bassitt] who aren't even guaranteed a spot right now, I don't know how likely it is that they can justify Smith over the majority of them. 

-Adrian Houser. Statistically, Houser is the best pitcher on the White Sox. He's also only been there for 6 starts. That doing pretty well for 6 starts gets you a 1.5 WHIP and a ride to second on the leaderboard says more about the White Sox than Houser. And yes, he's looked good, with a 2.27 ERA in that time, but that's a very small sample size for ASG berth. Paul Skenes had more starts before July last year. 

-Steven Wilson. Steven Wilson is the guy I am honestly thinking SHOULD get the nod for the White Sox, and I know this is a contentious point because all of you are going 'who??' Steven Wilson is....well, Steven Wilson is a progressive rock musician known for his music with the band Porcupine Tree, but Steven Wilson the PITCHER is a former Padres reliever netted in the Dylan Cease deal. Right now, Wilson is one of the best players on the White Sox because he's been steady in the face of mess. He has a 1.73 ERA, a 1.3 WAR, and 25 Ks through 26 innings. Nothing on this team has been steady, yet Steven Wilson has been steady. And so I think it should be him. There is the issue of nobody having heard of him, but...people still haven't heard of Evan Meek, Bryan LaHair or Kevin Correia, so that's not much of a serve.

Maybe it's none of them. Maybe they go with Luis Robert or Andrew Benintendi regardless of statistical evidence suggesting the contrary. Who knows? I certainly don't. But whoever gets it will likely remember every second of the experience, because who knows if it'll ever happen again.

Coming Tonight: Got booted out of Philly for a guy who barely lasted, and has provided a surprising amount of security since arriving in his new city.

Land of Too Many Backup Plans

 

I think the Marlins have a right to be frustrated. The thing that was supposed to be the factor that thrust them back into the race, that being Sandy Alcantara, hasn't done what it's supposed to. The last year and a half has been leading up to the return of Alcantara, a Marlins hero to this point, and he just hasn't been the same. He currently has a 6.98 ERA, is 4-8, and just today melted down against the D-Backs, which would have been a lot worse of a look had the Marlins not come back and won it. It's confusing everyone, it's confusing the Marlins, it's confusing all the people that were gonna trade for Alcantara, it's confusing Alcantara. 

And while the Marlins weren't quite expected to lead the East, it's put them at even more of a disadvantage. Cause they don't have peak Alcantara, they haven't gotten peak Eury Perez, they lost Griffin Conine right when he was about to win a starting spot, and they're without Ryan Weathers for even more time. And, to add insult to injury, they just lost Max Meyer. The plan is going out the window, and we're getting to the point where they could be just trying shit out and hoping it works. Yet...as all this is happening, the Marlins are...on a winning streak. They've won their last 6 games, and 7 out of their last 8. Something, even if it is, like...brief...is happening.

The most important part of the Marlins' season so far is actually forming a solid lineup of people who will likely be sticking around for a while. Going into this season it was pretty much just Jesus Sanchez, but now Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez have all felt like everyday guys for this team. Hicks came out of practically nowhere, took advantage of an early injury from Nick Fortes and has made himself a more feasible catching option, hitting .279 with 4 homers and 26 RBIs. Ramirez has been a much needed power bat, with 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 56 games; he and Stowers have upped the power numbers by a ton for this team. Myers is a .300 hitter with great speed; granted, he's 29, and has taken forever to stay put in the majors, but he can continue at this pace and give the Marlins something. Then the Marlins bring up Heriberto Hernandez, another .300-hitting outfielder, and you're seeing the pieces of a really fun, varied team begin to form. Eventually this team will find a perennial first baseman, as neither Eric Wagaman nor Matt Mervis are the answer, but they've got a surprising amount pinned down.

And while the rotation has suffered with the number of holes thus far, you're still seeing some people who know what they're doing. Edward Cabrera is the most crucial one of these. The thing you expect from Cabrera at this point is at least a month or so of injury, and at least a month or so of bad pitching, and then some sweet spot that makes it all worth it. We're currently in that. He currently leads the team in strikeouts with 69, has a 3.78 ERA, and has been excellent all June. Janson Junk is like that too, he went from being a longman to starting, and has been responsible for some really dominant outings in between the occasional shellacking. There are still guys who are solely there to eat innings, Cal Quantrill chief among them, but you're seeing signs of life. And if you're getting offense, sometimes that can win games.

The Marlins' surprise surge has put them ahead of the Nats in the standings. They may have more to them than we all previously thought, and that could lead to something cool eventually.

Coming Tomorrow- The Dodgers flipped him for a 2nd baseman and two relievers that got them a ring. So the fact that he's done anything for the guys they dealt him to is a big deal. 

Facing the Facts

 

Alright. With this much having been elapsed, and with this much still working, I can admit that the Rays are, in fact, a good team. They're good enough that they're honestly commanding the AL East as the Yankees have slowed down. I'm just mad that they're doing it in the cheapest way possible. 

It is undeniable that the Rays have built a new young core, and are moving far ahead with it. Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero are the powering force behind this team, both are ready and both are really fantastic. Caminero has 20 homers and 51 RBIs, and might be headed to the All-Star Game. Aranda's hitting .329 with 8 homers and 41 RBIs. And for them to be able to do this while Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe are all A.) still on this team and B.) still capable of producing consistently is just a testament to why the Rays shouldn't rush to trade people instead of paying them. A core has appeared, and even if there is gonna be an uncomfortable conversation in regards to what happens after this season, it's getting them deep into the race for the division.

[It occurs to me now, by the way, how much the Rays resembles a college team, because of how inevitable the departures feel, and how it all seems to go in like 4 year cycles more often than anything.]

And somehow, after years of scrounging and forcing openers, the Rays have a solid rotation of five guys who've stayed healthy and made all their starts. Ryan Pepiot has blossomed into a really strong pitcher, he's got a 3.04 ERA and 91 Ks. Shane Baz is 8-3 with 86 Ks and a 4.37 ERA. Drew Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA. Regardless of the fact that Shane McClanahan still isn't here, and that Taj Bradley can occasionally get chased, this is a very solid pack of starters. And their failsafe guy, Joe Boyle seems to have figured his shit out as well. 

That doesn't mean the Rays don't have flaws, as...they still have too many either no-name 29-year-old rookies or name 29-year-olds hitting .220, but what works is enough to power them to 2nd, and enough to make them a serious rival for 1st. This weekend the Yankees are playing the A's, who are beatable but infuriatingly sneaky, and the Rays are playing the Orioles, who have been better but still have no pitching. I'd prefer the Yankees to stay on top, but it's wild that we're in a moment where the Rays could top them.

Coming Tonight: It's looking like the people that were supposed to do their jobs in Miami aren't really doing so, so now he's gotta step up.

When All Else Fails..

 

Ketel Marte has been on the Diamondbacks longer than anyone else, which is kind of hard to believe considering he's 31, and younger than a lot of major players for this team. He came over in 2017, in exchange for Jean Segura, blossomed into an All-Star 2nd baseman within two years, and has become a perennial MVP vote getter and league-wide hero. The acclaim for Marte is so beloved that after a White Sox fan heckled Marte during a game, the Sox not only banned the fan but immediately stood in solidarity with Marte. It's not like the Tommy Pham thing where he was being a punk, Marte plays the game right and some people just wanna be assholes. 

The amount that Marte has accumulated in this time is sneakily great. He's got a 32.4 WAR, 1199 hits, and a career .282 average, boosted by his current .313 average in the midst of another great season. Marte's thing is that he's had more 'alright' seasons than truly terrific ones, and that will ultimately keep him from definite enshrinement, but right now he's still elite.

And it's a good thing the Diamondbacks still have him, because this has been a season that has required his leadership. Several weeks ago, Corbin Burnes went down for the season. Earlier this week Corbin Carroll hit the IL. They also recently lost Gabriel Moreno, and will definitely be without Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk for a while. The team is above .500 but still in 4th in the NL West. The plan now is just to stay steady and outlast the competition, and the way to do that is continuing to provide a difference-maker even if it can't be Carroll or Burnes. Marte is one of those difference-makers, he has 15 homers and 32 RBIs. This team has a chance if more people are in that category.

At this stage, I feel like there's a case to be made that there are. The corners are both rocking excellent contact seasons: Eugenio Suarez leads the league with 67 RBIs, and his 25 homers ain't too shabby either. Josh Naylor, unsurprisingly, is still a very impressive contact hitter, he's hitting .307 with 10 homers and 53 RBIs. Geraldo Perdomo also has 53 RBIs, and I always forget how good of a hitter he can be. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., even on a weaker year, still has 41 RBIs. And you have to factor in Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson and Shelby Miller, who've stayed consistent despite the major pitching issues the team has faced. Those elements are working, and hopefully they stay strong. I think eventually Gallen will go on a tear, and I'm pretty sure Carroll will be back with a vengeance after the all-star break.

The Diamondbacks, even with everything stacked against them, still have a shot. It's still June, and they still can outhit a ton of teams. You can't completely count them out.

Coming Tonight: The Dodgers flipped him to get over their injury problem, and the guy they got for him added to it. The guy that got away has been pretty healthy though. 

Don't Get Any Big Ideas

 

In 2023, famously, the Los Angeles Angels, upon sweeping the New York Yankees midyear, suddenly decided they were ready to compete, and thus traded for tons of helpful stars, including Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. Then they...stopped winning games, and had to waive most of them. It was a classic case of overconfidence that cost a lot of people their jobs, and led to Shohei Ohtani leaving for the Dodgers.

Well...the Angels just took three from the Yankees again, including a couple where they couldn't get runs out of them. And now they're at .500, lapping the Rangers. If they don't mess this up, they could be hanging around 2nd by the end of the first half. Which would be insane, seeing as the Angels have so many pieces that simply aren't working, and so many great players [from Mike Trout to Taylor Ward to Christian Walker] who are doing good things but not consistently enough to be having great seasons.

This team has already tried so much that has outright failed. Banking on a Tim Anderson reclamation project, yeah that unsurprisingly went nowhere. Giving Yoan Moncada a try, well after a month he got hurt, like he always does. Giving Kyren Paris more playing time, well, his start was phenomenal but he truly evened out and now he's hitting below .200. Getting a healthy year from Luis Rengifo--that's a -1.3 WAR that man is working with this year. When signing Kyle Hendricks, who has a 4.83 ERA, is comparatively one of your better ideas, you know things have gone wrong.

I do admire the Angels's ability to just get rid of what isn't working. Prior to the season, the Angels did away with the 'homegrown rotation' idea cause none of them could stay healthy. And while they were right about Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning is having a rebound year in New York. Honestly, the central trio this year of Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson and Jose Soriano has been pretty great. Kikuchi has 99 Ks and a 2.79 ERA, he's just built for this division. Soriano's ERA is around 3.50 and he has 80 Ks. Anderson's a little more even but he's still a crucial workhorse. The Angels have gotten starts from five pitchers and no one else [so far], which not even the Mariners can say this year. Even if Jack Kochanowicz is bringing up the rear of the rotation, he's still making all his starts and he's still capable of great moments. They haven't needed Reid Detmers to swing over, and they haven't needed to call up Caden Dana or Sam Aldegheri for much else other than mop-up duty. 

I do kinda wish the lineup had better luck, as there's still some holes. Nolan Schanuel, at least, has gotten off to a better June, he's now hitting .274 with 6 homers and 30 RBIs. Jo Adell, regardless of a lack of dimension, still has 17 homers and 41 RBIs. Mike Trout, despite this being his most human year yet, has hit 12 homers and has 29 RBIs. And rookie Christian Moore, even if he hasn't gotten his average up yet, has 3 homers and 6 RBIs, and is already a proven Yankee killer. Even if it isn't always pretty, this team can produce, and this team can still get past tough teams. They're not a full competitor to me yet, but if they keep at this pace they could shock a lot of people.

Coming Tomorrow- I think about the fact that the Mariners didn't especially need Jean Segura and traded for him anyway, thereby costing them a 2nd baseman for life. And you know how many 2nd basemen the Mariners have corrupted since then. Frazier, Wong, Polanco. It could have been so much easier..

Sal On

 

The narrative of last year's Brewers team was that there were suddenly tons of young, rookie-to-second-year guys who were in position to succeed and capable of leading this team to glory. The narrative of this year's Brewers team is 'oh shit, there's even more!'

Already this season, we've seen rookie performers like Logan Henderson, Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, Chad Patrick, Craig Yoho and now Jacob Misiorowski coming up and joining the fun. Many of them have done extremely well. Isaac Collins has 4 homers, 19 RBIs and 8 steals, and is already in the running for Rookie of the Year. Durbin has 29 RBIs and 10 doubles in 59 games. Logan Henderson went 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, and the only reason he's not up in the majors right now is that Miz, who pitched a beaut yesterday against Pittsburgh, has only allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in 3 starts. Until someone either gets injured or pulls an Aaron Civale, Henderson will likely stay in the minors, despite his MLB success. 

That's how many good young players the Brewers have right now. Because they have Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick and Miz all in their sweet spots, they can give Jose Quintana, who's still on decent pace, some starts and continue to let Henderson develop. You also have to remember that Jefferson Quero is still hanging out in Triple-A and doesn't need to come up yet because William Contreras and Eric Haase are so good behind the plate. Hell, they just got Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox, and they haven't needed him in the majors yet because A.) he still kinda sucks, and B.) Joey Ortiz and Rhys Hoskins are better-hitting first basemen. 

The Brewers have options. Case in point: their outfield right now is Jackson Chourio, who's been on a tear recently, Sal Frelick, who's hitting .295 with 31 RBIs, and Collins, who's had an excellent rookie season. That's three young OF options who'll likely be around for a while. Frelick especially has been impressing people this season, and it's nice that he's become a fixture there after his fun come-up in 2023. Turang and Yelich are doing their usual thing, Abner Uribe's become an excellent setup option, and Trevor Megill's still holding his own at RP1. The pieces are there, and there's enough variance and depth to ensure that nothing goes exceptionally wrong.

And let's not even get into the obvious: Brandon Woodruff and Blake Perkins are still expected to return this year. So as good as the Brewers are right now, and gaining fast on the Cubs, they could be even better in a month's time. How cool is that?

Coming Tonight: Hard-hitting 1st baseman just trying to keep everyone from heading for the exits.

Waste Management

 

I understand that the Mets were following the plan that made the most sense to them. Getting Harvey, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and deGrom at the same time was very big for them. There wasn't always room to start games. Seth Lugo got his fair share, but was never a priority. Even as people left and less-than-favorable options appeared in Queens, Lugo remained a bullpen option. Then he becomes a free agent in 2023 and starts fielding offers as a starter. The Padres bite, he does well, the Royals give him a better deal, and last year he has a Cy Young caliber season. However, he is now 35. I know it's possible to have great starting careers after 30, Charlie Morton has proved this, but...that doesn't leave Lugo much time to be a truly great starter. 

The Mets had someone that could have been another sure thing for them, and they did nothing with him. And of course this year they sign Clay Holmes to start games like it's the same thing. It's not.

Lugo, so far for the Royals, has been as consistent as ever. He's got a 2.93 ERA, a 1.048 WHIP and a 2.1 WAR. The issue is he's 4-5, because the Royals aren't as good this year and haven't had a great monthlong run. And he's pitched on mediocre teams and done fine, but...he's 35. I have no idea when Lugo's gonna stop pitching this well. If you waste this season, it's just like wasting the other ones in Queens. You have somebody this good, and you're stuttering around and putting Hunter Renfroe out there and acting like everything's fine. 

And honestly, we're a point where the Royals' rotation is honestly fantastic. Kris Bubic is having his best season to date, with a 3.0 WAR, a 2.18 ERA and 96 Ks. Michael Wacha's having another excellent late-career year, with a 3.24 ERA. Noah Cameron, barring some recent starts, has been extremely consistent, with a 2.08 ERA. Lorenzen, even if his ERA is higher, has been a relatively consistent arm. But only Bubic has a positive W/L ratio. Because the bullpen is so mediocre, because the lineup has so many 'good but not excellent' guys, and because there are just so many competitors who are simply better, this team is squandering a strong, consistent rotation. 

You can see them trying to get a new strategy here, bringing up Jac Caglianone, who's yet to hit above .200 but at least is finding himself. You're getting production from Witt, Pasquantino and Perez. But there still feels like there's elements missing, and it feels like the fire that got them to an NLDS last year isn't there. Maybe things shift and they find someone's presence that fuels a run, but as it is now it's not looking good.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many really sharp young guys keeping the Brewers in the conversation.

The Ronnie Factor

 

I think the idea the Braves are trying to sell you is that this team is different without Ronald Acuna Jr. Before he came back they were listless, since his return they've been better, he could lead them back to glory. That would be the preferable sell at least. But A.) the Braves famously won a World Series without Acuna, and B.) even since Acuna's return they've gotten caught in losing stretches. They just want you to forget that cause they've been better since the 9th. But...even if the 2021 team could win without Acuna, this isn't that team.

Firstly, let's at least acknowledge that this is peak Acuna once again, as expected. Last season before the injury he was muted and lesser, now he's very much his old self. In 28 games he's hitting .396 with 9 homers and 16 RBIs. That is Ronald Aucna. This is what he does. It is concerning that he's accumulated that few RBIs given the homer totals, as even Sean Murphy, who's hit 9 homers in 47 games, still has 22 RBIs. Is it just that hard to bat runs in on this team? Is having Nick Allen, Alex Verdugo, Eli White and Bryan de la Cruz as late lineup options really gonna make sure Acuna and Olson can bat runs in? Come on now. 

As much as this team has lost already, they're now losing even more. Chris Sale's likely out for a month or so. Smith-Shawver is out just after getting the hang of things. So much of the team they thought they'd have in March [Lopez, Profar, Kelenic, Arcia] has let them down, and now they're doing their best to keep up. Alex Verdugo is still proving why people put way too much stock in him before, he's yet to hit a home run this season. Austin Riley has 12 homers but is more 'fine' than anything this year. Ozzie Albies is also pretty mediocre. Sean Murphy has improved but now that Drake Baldwin has appeared he's suddenly become Travis D'Arnaud, scaring up a good pace as a backup. Baldwin's hitting .293 with 8 homers, and people are already crying Rookie of the Year but can we at least pick someone who has a good chance of sustaining this success over a career? 

Even still, the Braves have won some nice series' recently, dominating the Brewers, Rockies, Mets and Marlins. This week gives them two more division matchups, the Mets and Phils, and so far they seem to be on a similar run. Eventually either their lack of depth is gonna catch up to them or they're just gonna cement themselves as a minimalistic, more one-dimensional good team and see if that gets them a further playoff spot. And if that works I'll probably chuck my TV out the window.

Coming Tonight (?)- We talk about the Mets wasting a lot of players, but this guy has a definite case that they ate up too much of his career on silly shit. 

Coming Back to Haunt Us

 

As disappointing as the Red Sox have been this year, arriving around .500, you wouldn't know it from their quality of play against the New York Yankees. They won one game against the Sox and then the Sox kept shutting them up, eventually jumpstarting their scoreless run. And they did it, ironically, with a lot of former Yankees. Their closer right now is Aroldis Chapman, who's been excellent in the ninth again. They're getting a healthy season out of Garrett Whitlock, who's been one of their more crucial bullpen arms. Their hero bench bat continues to be former Yankee prospect Rob Refsnyder, who's once again hitting .300 off the bench, harkening back to fellow utility bench guys like Lou Merloni and Brock Holt. 

And of course, you have one of their biggest triumphs this season, former Yankee prospect Carlos Narvaez. Narvy was a perennial Rail-Rider, and while he made the majors for 6 games last year, we had no room for him between Wellsy and Trevino. Trading him and then immediately dealing Trevvy must have been cruel. But Narvaez not only found a nice home in Boston, but was able to ride a great spring showing to a roster spot, and outdid usual starter Connor Wong for a starting spot. And then, first Yanks-Sox series of the year, Narvaez gets to be the hero. Funny how that works out. 

Narvaez is the Sox's surest catching option since they traded Christian Vazquez. Not only is he great defensively, but he's hitting .276 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs. Definitely an upgrade from the comparatively lopsided Wong. I think if he keeps this up he could be a pretty sure piece for the Sox moving forward, and it's insanely fortuitous that he showed up here right after the Sox traded their biggest catching prospect, Kyle Teel, to Chicago. Teel's struggling in the majors right now while Narvaez is surging.

Jumping off on that point, Teel, even if he's out of Boston, has still picked up on the Sox' products trend of completely cratering this season. Campbell is already back in the minors, Anthony and Mayer are hitting around .150, Dobbins is already hurt, and even Duran, Houck and Casas have been disappointments. The thought was that Boston was gonna show the world their next generation was ready this year, and they went ahead with the rollout, even trading Devers to make room, and...these guys just aren't ready. Campbell had a hot start but was hitting .223 when he was sent down. Mayer's hitting .186, Anthony .128. These guys clearly can wreck the ball in the minors, but it's just not working at the MLB level yet, which is kinda heartbreaking. The stage was set, the road was paved, and yet...we're still here.

The Sox have time for these guys to grow into stars, but the hope that it could happen this season is beginning to dissipate. Now there's rumors the Sox might try to get rid of Alex Bregman, or even Duran, and...I dunno, I just saw this going much differently for them. I'm personally fine if they don't compete, but with everything they had going for them at the top of the season it'd still be heartbreaking.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been back for 28 games and he already has a higher WAR than like 90% of the team. 

The Ever-Steepening Cliff

 

Not enough people talk about how upsettingly hot and cold the Padres can be. In 2022 and 2024, the Padres had pennant-contending teams that, given slightly different rolls of the dice, could have gone all the way. Last year down the stretch the Padres were scarily good. Just this year, the Padres had this unstoppable home record for a month or so. On May 14th they were 27-15, and in a truly great position with a chance at sliding past the Dodgers. And since then they've been embarrassingly mediocre. They're 42-35 in that time, meaning things have evened out while still staying above .500. The Giants have lapped them, and now they have Rafael Devers joining the fun. The Padres, though, despite having two of the best hitters in the majors, have regressed in the past month. Which is not a good look.

It's somewhat more nuanced than 'beyond Tatis and Machado there's not much going on', but that's how it looks. Michael King, their best pitcher of the first two months, is hurt and out for a little while. Nick Pivetta, who had some awesome starts in April and May, has slowed down and is having one of his bouts of patheticness. Jackson Merrill, while hitting .300, has limited his playing time thanks to injuries. A bunch of all-stars like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts are just...playing perfectly fine. Bogie is hitting .250 with 4 homers. Where is his Boston production?? Come on now!

With all of that, a lot of replacement level guys are having to do more of the work. Randy Vazquez and his 3-4 record might be one of the more consistent pitchers they've had. Rookies Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert have had more success keeping runs down than Cease at times. Jason Adam, even in his least-favorite month of June, still has a 1.85 ERA and still is as dominant as he was in Tampa. One of the stars of the lineup in June has been Gavin Sheets, the former White Sox power hitter whose streakiness has given way to very impressive tears, like in May where he hit 8 homers and 22 RBIs, and already has 11 RBIs in June. And with all the veteran DH/bench guys the Padres have tried this year [Jose Iglesias, Yuli Gurriel, Jason Heyward, Martin Maldonado, Connor Joe] it's a wonder that Sheets, who's never had a positive WAR, is the one that's working. 

The Padres could always turn it around, but not only have they lost a lot of nice pieces, but they've come out of the Dodgers series looking even worse. They're in third, slightly rebounding with the Royals series, and now they're trying not to fall behind with the Nationals [winning as I write this] and the Reds looking to spoil. There's a chance they catch fire like they did last year, but they need a lot more people in position to succeed, and less running in place when that happens. 

Coming Tonight: It's always the ex-Yankee prospects that make us really regret it all, right?