Championship Series' Day 5: Seed Change

 

We haven't had a buildup to a World Series appearance like this since 2016. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have made the NLCS four times since 2010, which is more than they had in their entire history to that point. They had a tremendous team in 2011 that ran the NL Central on the backs of Braun and Fielder, the culmination of a five year build, then took the Dodgers to Game 7 in 2018 only to lose anyway, then got swept last year without a fight. And in this time, I can count a handful of seasons where the Brewers had a genuinely great team but failed to capitalize. The 2014 team, which for a while was the best in the NL but ran out of steam in the second half and paved the way for the Cardinals to take the division. The 2023 and 2024 teams, which were good enough to compete but still got bounced in the wild card round either way. Arguably even the 1992 team, which won 92 games but got outweighed for a playoff spot. There have been so many missed opportunities, so many 'so close' finishes, so many great regular seasons that led to a disappointing playoff exit. 

So when this specific Brewers team won 103 games, notched a first seed spot and looked to take on the league, I hoped that the same thing wouldn't happen again. So many Brewers teams have deserved a strong finish but never seemed to pull it off. This team, as good as they were, could be the latest, especially with the inevitability of a run-in with LA.

Well...tonight, the Brewers finished off a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers, marked with two road wins, and two epic comebacks. They used contact flair to subdue the Dodgers' bullpen, and had hero moments come from Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell and, yes, David Hamilton, the utility man they got from the Red Sox in exchange for Caleb Durbin, who had the RBI single that started the rally and the solo homer that padded the lead. A team where someone like David Hamilton, or Aaron Ashby, or Jojo Romero, can be the hero, beating the Los Angeles Dodgers on a night where Shohei Ohtani hit a 3-run home run...that is something special. They've done it like this all season, and it's translated to October success. 

I'm really excited to see this team in a World Series. Chourio, Miz, Contreras, Turang, Bauers and Henderson could continue their strong Octobers and become definite franchise legends. I see them winning against either AL team, especially if they made quick work of LA this week. Genuinely heartened to see this team triumph, hope there's more to come.

The Dodgers...I mean, the last thing you can say about this Dodgers team is that they didn't try. This whole threepeat quest has come from an amount of effort that virtually no other team has, and a collection of talent that practically always does what they're supposed to. This is a team built for long term October success the way few others even dream of. The ability to have Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Andy Pages, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on the same team, all working hard enough to make titles happen, is surprisingly rare in this climate of 'well if we fill seats and sell merch it doesn't matter whether or not we win'. Most teams are fine running a business rather than running a ball club, the Dodgers can do both successfully.

They built this team for a third title. They got Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz, and then they got Tarik Skubal. They did everything to make this happen. That it didn't is no fault of theirs, and mostly the fault of general MLB atrophy. Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and, yes, Tucker, were all bound to have down seasons eventually. Ohtani, by the end of the season, wasn't pitching and was struggling at the plate. Betts and Freeman are good but not elite anymore. They got to both Yamamoto and Snell, and eventually Glasnow. And Kyle Tucker had a perfectly mediocre season that finally got going in the first month, and gelled into a .300 October with some helpful contact hits tonight. That none of them ever got him home is more the fault of the rest of the team. Same with Edwin Diaz putting his all into a 3-inning relief appearance only to end up padding the Brewers' lead anyway. Even the best of effort still isn't enough sometimes. So now you know how the other 29 teams have felt the last few seasons.

The Dodgers will certainly be back. The rumor is they want to restructure Tucker's contract, and while they're definitely gonna make an effort to sign Skubal, will he want to stay in LA, especially if they're not a proven championship team anymore? They still have the big guns, but how will Freeman, Hernandez, Betts, Muncy and Snell even look next year? Will it really be on Andy Pages and Josue de Paula to keep things moving? Or will it be another business as usual season with yet another World Series appearance? All of this assuming the owners actually let us find out by the way.

People won't want to hear it, but the Dodgers losing here was the right outcome. They're not done, but this wasn't their best team, and if they'd made it to the end anyway with it, it wouldn't really be fair.

There was another game played as well today, and this was somehow the more cut-and-dry one. Solid enough stuff from both teams, but the game came down to Petey Halpin, the defensive center field option, hitting a 2-run home run off of Rays fifth starter Griffin Jax. No wonder they pushed this up to 1. The other series is 'Jackson Chourio hitting a home run off Blake Snell in LA', this is 'welcome to Cleveland, y'wanna watch Steven Kwan rob Richie Palacios of a triple?' It's much different. NOT BAD. This is still fun and I want it to go all 7, which it might. But I can see why the league is downplaying it. 

The Guardians have gotten 2 wins from the toughest team in the AL, and have done it on the backs of Gavin Williams, who struck out everybody, and Foster Griffin, who banked more on leverage. The Guardians are probably throwing out Tanner Bibee tomorrow, while the Rays might go to Nick Martinez. Very soon, the Rays are gonna be out of viable starting arms, while the Guards could very easily go with Joey Cantillo without much issue. All that remains is for the Guardians to keep outhitting this Rays team, which is still difficult considering Simpson and Mesa still had some things to say today.

But...the Guardians held the Rays, known for their contact magic, to three hits today. That's huge. It can be done. I'm not sure if it can be done two more times before the Rays have their say, but it can be done.

Obviously I'd prefer the Guardians to take this one, but if the Rays can do it and we get a battle of the 1 seeds, that'll still make a pretty exciting World Series, so at this point I can't lose.

Championship Series' Day 4: Jake Beats Blake

 

Now are ya listening? Now are ya paying attention? The Brewers are 3 up on the Dodgers, and have put them in killswitch position. The press has been hyping up the Dodgers' threepeat narrative all year, even saw this series as a back-and-forth brawl, and...the Brewers are up 3-0. Against the monolith. 

The wild part was, until that seventh inning, Blake Snell was having the better start. Bobby Gasser was keeping the score down for the most part, but Snell, leadoff homer notwithstanding, worked, striking out 9 in 6 innings. But, in a mirror to Kevin Cash's decision to pull Snell prematurely in the 2020 World Series, Dave Roberts let Snell go out for one more, then the Jake Bauers homer happens, the Mitchell homer happens, and the rest of the game doesn't really come any closer to a Dodgers' win. Ironic, I guess. Dave Roberts might lose this series by trying to out manage Kevin Cash before he even gets to play against him.

Also, the Dodgers' mistakes are beginning to pile up. Justin Wrobleski went wild and a run scored. Shohei Ohtani still isn't hitting at all, and now Freeman and Pages might be going cold. The bullpen the Dodgers worked so hard to avoid using last year is once again blowing games, save for Evan Phillips. And meanwhile, the Brewers are just the better team right now. The defense has been excellent, especially the outfield defense Mitchell and Lara are working with. The bullpen, regardless of Abner Uribe's shoddy work, is still great, and D.L. Hall gets the added kudos for keeping down the Dodgers for two and a third as the Brewers kept plugging away. Chourio's RBIs are continuing to pile up, chasing Andruw Jones' pre-23 record. The road loss narrative is over, the flaws haven't really been showing up. 

One more win and the Brewers do something they haven't done since 1982. Tyler Glasnow will get the ball to prevent it from happening, though I assume he won't be the only one trying to keep the Dodgers alive, as those ratings have gotten be occurring to Manfred about now. The one concerning thing is I'm not sure who the Brewers will start. Dustin May? He's had a spotty track record. Shane Drohan or Kyle Harrison? Or would they need to be opened for? My wild card pick is Chad Patrick. Let him do 3 innings, then have Drohan or May coast, and hopefully that works. The goal is that whatever the plan ends up being will be enough to stop LA, and this has worked so far. 

A sweep would be insane. It's not definite, because these are still the Dodgers, but...what if, man? Especially after 2025. What if that's what happens?

Championship Series' Day 3: He Wants Revenge

 

I figured the Rays wouldn't make things easier for the Guardians, considering that the Rays are still the most ferocious team remaining arguably, and last night's Game 2 was exactly what I figured. A dominant pitching performance, some contact work, and exploiting the weaknesses of the imperfections of the opponent. Jose Ramirez was the hero in Game 1, and he was the cause of the run spillage in Game 2. Freddy Peralta clicked, as the Rays knew he would given the change of scenery, and gave the ace performance they knew he would. And guys like Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca and Liam Hicks kept the train rolling for Tampa as they wrapped up the initial stretch at the Trop.

I'd been pulling for a Guards-Brewers series, and a Rays-Brewers series...honestly wouldn't be too bad either, seeing as neither franchise has ever won, and both are very like-minded contact-heavy teams. But last night pointed out the existence of a very fun narrative. You see...the Brewers are two games from a World Series despite trading away their #1 asset at the beginning of the season, Freddy Peralta. It did get them Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, neither of which are on the current playoff roster for Milwaukee, and it cleared the way for Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson to have definite rotation spots, but considering that they still managed to compete and make it to another NLCS, trading a guy like Peralta is still a dodgy move. The Rays had every right to take advantage of his market value, and him becoming a hero for them right now is the result of everything that's happened in the last year. Furthermore, it gives the perfect revenge narrative for Peralta to try and win a World Series against his old team.

If you'll recall, this nearly happened last year. We were somewhat close to a Brewers-Mariners World Series last year [and I'd have preferred this]. Peralta came up with the Mariners, and was dealt to Milwaukee after the 2015 season, in exchange for Adam Lind, who did approximately dick with the Mariners. He could have gotten his revenge against the M's, but neither team made it. Here, the revenge plot returns. It works twofold, because if the Rays beat Cleveland, Junior Caminero gets his revenge after being traded for Tobias Myers, who coincidentally was part of the trade that sent Peralta to Queens earlier this year. 

Lots of fun revenge plots stewing if the Rays make a World Series, which is looking a little likelier than it was, though I'm certainly not counting out the Guardians yet. It does make me a little more intrigued about seeing the Rays advance, even if it's still not the outcome I'd prefer.

Tonight, we have Bobby Gasser vs. Blake Snell in LA. The numbers would tell you one story, but recent stats say something a little different. We'll see how this one goes. If the Brewers could win some games on the road this time it could be rather helpful. 

Championship Series' Day 2: Little by Little

So I was out for the last few days, driving all over the northeast. I missed posting about the Guards winning, and the Brewers winning Game 1. I was driving yesterday and completely missed anything about either CS game til I got home. Both outcomes, however, were ones I greatly enjoyed.

Let's talk about this Brewers team, because it's working exactly as a great baseball team should. There's no exorbitant contracts, a lot of homegrown, talented players in their primes, some excellent, well-thought-out roster moves that have built a strong team all over, and clutch ability that most teams would dream of. And they have taken two games at home against the Dodgers, who've spent their way to this monolithic pursuit of a threepeat. Fundamentally, the scrappier, less-expensive team should win, and so far they have been. 

The Dodgers have starting depth, let's make this clear, and the next two games in LA they'll have Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the mound, which is better than the Milwaukee plan of Robert Gasser and what I will only assume will be a bullpen game. But the fact that Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson were able to comfortably outduel Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto...that is damning. Sku is still one of the best pitchers in the league, and Yoshi's one of the best postseason pitchers ever. And this Brewers team got to them both. Getting these two games over LA, even if the Dodgers come back and take some of the LA games, which is very likely, is so important. You neutralize them immediately and ensure they can't just outmatch you from the jump.

Credit also goes to William Contreras for his Game 2 heroics, Luis Lara for his spark plug offensive spot in Game 1, and his continued defensive dominance, and the bullpen, including Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill, who've all been lights out so far. I'm absolutely loving this narrative, and hope the Brewers can hold onto the momentum even as the Dodgers threaten to wake up.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are the ultimate underdog right now. They flirted with .500 all year, only took the division late in the season, were down 2-0 heading to Chicago for Game 3, and now have a chance to get to their first World Series in 10 years, with a team that isn't the Yankees being their last hurdle. 

That Game 1 win seemed elusive for a while, as Drew Rasmussen was winning the pitching duel until he finally gave up a run in the sixth. Foster Griffin was chased at the end of the fourth, which was longer than a lot of Cleveland fans thought after that first inning. This game came down to who had the better bullpen, and once again the answer was certainly not Tampa. Tyler Wells gave up the game-breaking RBI to Nathaniel Lowe, once again on a ragtag team for the postseason [just not the Rays or Rangers], and Cole Sulser squandered the opportunity to let the Rays catch up by giving up RBIs to Ramirez and Adell in the ninth. The Guards' pen, meanwhile, aside from Sabrowski giving up a solo shot to Cedric Mullins, were pretty spotless.

Drew Rasmussen was the Rays' best bet at starter, and while Freddy Peralta could have another start like his Yanks one, the Guardians will have Parker Messick and that game 1 cushion. The Rays may still be the favorites, but the Guardians could be a decent match for them. 

Guards-Rays Game 2 tonight. Could tie it up, or could continue the trend. I'm still pulling for Brewers-Guardians, what a fun time that would be. 

Division Series' Day 5: Three Endings and One Second Act

 

Second consecutive section of the playoffs where three series' leave the other one hanging.

The sugarplums have faded a bit in Chicago. They all thought the sweep was possible and then they remember, 'oh right, we've only got one good starter and a bunch of guys we'd rather have do 3 innings of relief'. And so Game 3 was a 9-3 Cleveland victory, because they had Foster Griffin for most of the game and he did more than Davis Martin, Noah Schultz or David Sandlin could.

It's very relieving that the Guardians' lineup finally showed up, as people worried they wouldn't [I mean what kind of team would just refuse to hit in a postseason series after dominating offensively all season, right?]. Kwan, Ramirez, Adell, Rocchio and Angel Genao all had excellent plate appearances, and J-Ram quieted any worry he'd be an ineffective postseason piece this year with that game-deciding 2-run triple. 

The White Sox are still in prime position, but they need to cling onto that momentum before the Guardians force a Game 5. 

So the Dodgers are going to another NLCS, and they did it behind their fourth man, who'd really be their second man if injuries hadn't happened. Tyler Glasnow was very good, only giving up one run, and making the work easy for the bullpen. Max Muncy and Andy Pages continued their strong postseasons. They made this one look pretty simple honestly, because they have contingency plans for everything. I'm not calling them a lock for the World Series right now, but it is looking likelier than it was a couple weeks ago, even with their NLCS opponent looking pretty strong.

As for the Braves...I think the first hint that this wasn't the team was that it took them 3 games to eliminate the Phillies when, if they were at their peak, it would have taken them two.

The tragedy about the Braves is that the highlights of this team were so high [Baldwin, Sale, Olson] that once you look below them you see how little depth there was this year. Tyler Mahle was a crucial postseason starter because Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep were nowhere to be found this year. Guys like Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas were novel ideas that went nowhere. The season came down to Raisel Iglesias, and they've had better versions of him.

Next year they're more likely to compete than Philly, but I don't necessarily think they'll run unopposed. 

The Rays are tough, man. They solidified themselves as a World Series threat in this series, and are the team to beat going forward. The ALCS will go through Tampa, either top starter remaining hasn't had the luck Drew Rasmussen has, and Caminero's only just begun. Though Victor Mesa Jr. will be linked to the controversial overturned home run call from this game, his homer in the sixth sealed the game and ensured the sweep would happen. A guy like Mesa, who was an insanely cheap preseason pickup for Tampa this year, has made this team pop as much as people like Ryan Vilade, Bryan Baker, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Martinez had. It's the usual Rays-ball mentality of putting the best people in position to succeed, regardless of how much they're making, and it may get them a franchise-first ring. 

That does mean that of the AL candidates, the most recent World Series winner remaining is the Chicago White Sox. Let's keep in mind for a second that the Brewers have never one won, and we really only have one recent W.S. winner remaining at all...and I think you can see where I'll be rooting from here on out. 

I'm running out of things to say in Octobers about this team, guys. Every year 'this is the team', every year 'look at them go', and every year 'what happened?' 

Is it really the case of the Red Sox being so out of steam that they were that easy for the Yanks to beat, and the Rays were so good that none of that production could be mustered? Or did the Yankees once again completely stop working once they got to the division series round? Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and Austin Wells didn't get that memo though, as they all had terrific series. Anthony Volpe also did a nice amount, though in a just world that homer isn't overturned and the Rays run out of good relievers before we do. Ultimately the stamina was not there. Back in the day we didn't have an extra month of the season, it was like two weeks, and some teams are way better at prepping a team for seven months than others. The Yankees are absolutely shit at it. If this was the old playoff bracket they'd have enough momentum to last but they tap out around this time of year every time, and they're not getting any better. It's not 2006 anymore, this isn't sustainable. 

Next year, Judge will be healthy, Jones and Lombard will be everyday options, and Schlittler, Fried, Cole and Rodon will all be healthy and ready to go. If the owners waste what could be a terrific Yankees year before the Yankees themselves can, I'll be pretty mad. 

Anyway, we knew the Brewers had the edge in this series, but man this one was competitive. Back and forth, lead changes, lots of heroes on both sides. That the Brewers pulled it out should not be a knock on SD, they had a great series but just weren't the better team. Robert Gasser was able to be the hero in a start, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 run. He's not as flashy as Miz and Henderson, but he gets the job done. Once again Chourio was the hero, but Sal Frelick and especially Garrett Mitchell had some big moments. 

The Brewers once again have to go through LA to make it to a World Series. But now they can win on the road, and they'll be starting in Milwaukee. And this team's even better than last year's. I think that NLCS could go all seven, and the Dodgers may not have the lay up they had last year.

Again, the Padres tried, and they could have advanced had it not been for a really strong opponent. They did a lot with some gaping holes, and having only 1 real viable postseason starter kind of did them in ultimately. I also think having to put guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor high in the lineup illuminated the lack of real depth unfortunately. Not to knock Samad Taylor, he had a nice season this year and may have finally found a place he can stick around. But Samad Taylor is not Jake Bauers, or Garrett Mitchell, or Joey Ortiz. I assume they will probably be in the mix next year, but the D-Backs will probably want revenge again.

Tonight we see if the White Sox can close things out. I kinda hope they do.

Division Series' Day 3 & 4: The Picture is Forming

 

I wasn't really around the last few days, and I probably should do write ups on these games, just for posterity's sake, so, here goes.

-The White Sox becoming a postseason juggernaut was not something I was predicting but I'm very much here for it. A lot of Cleveland fans are chalking this up to the Guardians' own post-September fade for the second year in a row, but it's important to note that Gavin Williams wasn't the problem that game, and the offense still did what they could. The White Sox are just better right now, and their core is coming to life in a way that feels like it was teased all year but never certain. The usual combo of Murakami, Vargas, Meidroth and Chase Montgomery is getting it done, and rookie Braden Montgomery joined the fun Monday night, with the RBI double that flipped the game.

The Sox are in clinching position today. I know people talked about their side of the bracket as a joke compared to the AL East side but you really never know. The White Sox, if they make the ALCS, could in all theory keep going, regardless of who they play. It's fascinating, but they've got a higher power on their side it seems. 

Speaking of teams that have given up...

I think the difference between the grievances of Guardians fans and the grievances of Yankee fans right now is that the Yankees are actually playing a really good team. NOT THAT THE WHITE SOX AREN'T, they ARE very good, but they are very streaky, and have gotten hot at the exact right time. The Rays are actually a fantastic team that's playing very well right now and have enough put together that a World Series is very much in reach. They also got Freddy Peralta working again, as he dealt against the Yanks even after Drew Rasmussen quieted them earlier. If Peralta is *back*, like fully back, then the Rays could be a nightmare going forward. 

The Yanks did not help matters by making numerous errors and doing nothing at the plate [not you Ben Rice you're doin great]. Aaron Boone finally seems to have an incentive to change the lineup, seeing as the season's on the line and all tonight and if they get swept in front of a home crowd, the fans might genuinely riot. I'm really hoping the Yanks keep the series alive, but they've run out of momentum and the Schlittler card couldn't even save them in Game 2. 

Anyway it must have been a rerun last night because Enrique Hernandez, after hitting .150 during the regular season, had a huge home run against the Braves and brought the Dodgers closer to an NLCS. Hernandez is moving further and further up the postseason home run leaderboard, which is wild for a player who constantly seems otherwise inconsequential during the regular season. It's absolutely wild that he's allowed to do that. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman just keeps hackin' away and is continuing HIS excellent October luck, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto had another insanely dominant October start. This team really is built for October in a way that no other team is, and the Braves need to figure out if they have anyone at all capable of keeping them down. 

And finally...good for the Padres, honestly. Facing the Brewers' worst starter and a couple of their weakest relievers, they got ahead, hit another ball to the rookie shortstop which he floundered, and kept the Brewers down without Mason Miller. If things go awry tonight, which is always likely, at least they had a cool home win, and at least Jake Cronenworth, after a rough season, got to be the hero by breaking the game open with a homer. 

The stat people are beginning to worry about is that, as good as the Brewers have been in the Pat Murphy era, they're terrible on the road. If the Padres force a Game 5, that'll be yet another road opportunity wasted. Plus, Christian Yelich had his first postseason RBI since 2018, so he's turning things around. Maybe the rest of the team will too. They have Bobby Gasser on the mound tonight, hoping to seal the deal and make another NLCS. I'm kinda pulling for them, even though the Padres may be equally worthy given their recent rallies. 

A lot could happen tonight. All four could end tonight. I don't think they all will, and I kinda hope one team avoids a sweep, but...I guess we'll see.

Division Series' Day 2: All The Right Moves

 

If the Brewers sweep, or win, this series it's not gonna do the Padres' efforts justice. Especially in Game 2. They have been fighting just as hard, and have not been getting the luck. They got production from Luis Campusano, Ty France and some bizarre Brett Harris mumbo-jumbo. And keep in mind, this is a team that bats Brett Harris, whoever he is, and Samad Taylor within the first four spots, and they're still right there in it. The Brewers, as it happens, just seem to be better.

I don't really blame Mason Miller for what happened, although honestly I probably should. Miller has been lights-out all year, he could have evened the series, things got sloppy and the wonder-kid made him regret it. I just think that the Brewers just have the guys for every situation in ways the Padres don't. Christian Yelich is not prime Christian Yelich, but he can still smoke a double and get home thanks to Sal Frelick's similar contact material. David Hamilton had an incredible game yesterday, both defensively and on the base paths, and the Padres really don't have a utility guy like that. And yes, Cooper Pratt made an oopsie that led to a run, but he's also 21 and coming into his own. 

Jackson Chourio right now is how Ronald Acuna thinks he should be viewed. Everything Acuna wants to be, aside from that 2023 season, Chourio is. Multi-tool, clutch, offensive machine, unstoppable. Chourio has been the deciding factor in both games. Not in a way where I feel like he's carrying the team, in a way where everybody's showing up AND Chourio can still be the hero.

Bobby Gasser for Game 3? Shane Drohan? Gasser, Drohan and Harrison piled on top of each other? Considering the Padres are going with a bullpen game probably, the Brewers might still have the edge as they go to sweep. 

All the people who showed up for Randy Dobnak being an Uber-driver losing against the Yankees 7 years ago need to be showing up for Ray Kerr being a former 7-11 worker who's opened in long relief and shut down both the Phillies and Dodgers' offenses. Ray Kerr took some minor league stints to completely reframe his strategy, made some late appearances for the Braves and had a 1.47 ERA. And now he's their go-to opener for bullpen games and has allowed zero runs, three hits and struck out six. Last night he was going against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, and none of them got home with him on the mound. Similarly, Didier Fuentes went three innings without allowing a hit in late relief, and only gave up that dinger to Muncy when Weiss figured he was good for a fourth. Granted...until Muncy he was looking for the 12-out save, but, y'know, that shit is hard. 

It says so much that guys like Ray Kerr, Didier Fuentes Grant Holmes and Mauricio Dubon can triumph over Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, with the money they're making. The little guy can still win out, even if...yes, Michael Harris was the big hero for the Braves, and he's still making a great deal of money [he is Money Mike, after all], as he deserves to. Evening this series with a good starter on the mound for LA was a big leverage move for the Braves, as they go into a Game 3 with Yoshinobu Yamamoto [HOW WELL ARE YOU DOING IF YOSHI IS YOUR #3??]. Chris Sale will be on the mound. He's been unstoppable thus far. I hope he keeps it up.

Today we've got some AL games. Kinda pulling for Chicago but not as hard as I am for New York, for Milwaukee and against the Dodgers [sorry, I just want a more interesting outcome this year, and I see the irony of me saying that while still supporting the Yanks]. 

Wild Card Series' Day 3: All That For Nothing

 

This is what the Phillies do that makes it so frustrating. They take an unwinnable situation, a foregone conclusion, 'okay, the Braves are the way better team, they will win', and they give you the illusion of hope. Making this a three game series was exactly that. It could have been cut and dry for the Braves but we legged it out to Game 3, made them trot out Chris Sale and Grant Holmes, and made them really work for a win they already kinda had. All the while they just make you think it was possible. You know, somebody could come alive, somebody could get to the other pitching staff. And then the exact thing you were preparing for from the jump happens anyway and you get worked up over nothing. 

Unsurprisingly, the Braves were the better team. Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Matt Olson all hit crucial home runs in spots they were supposed to. The bullpen could leg out the game, Ray Kerr could have a terrific opening performance, and Chris Sale was around to finish it off. Even Grant Holmes was decent in a mid-game run. Everyone who was in position to succeed did so, and cemented a win that, to be honest, should have been cemented last game. But still, the Braves get to go to LA and potentially upset the defending champs, and make for a pretty evenly-matched NLDS matchup. I'm fine with it.

The Phils, for a team that could not hit, did so much to combat the obvious issue. They got a batting addition and two bullpen additions, none of whom made the playoff roster. They got Derek Hill and Bryan de la Cruz for nothing, and they became surprisingly nice presences on the team. Everyone who was sucking in May got a September boost, like Aaron Nola, Bryson Stott, Andrew Painter and Alec Bohm. And Schwarber and Harper kept hitting homers. Unfortunately, the Trea Turner contract is becoming a horse around our necks, the bullpen still couldn't get through a damn thing, and the Braves were simply the better team. It was nice we legged it out, and Derek Hill hitting a triple this game makes me think he can be useful going forward, but...this was not the Phils' finest hour, and very well might be the death nell of the Harper era. But who knows, maybe Alex Cora can bring us back next year.

Friday I can actually catch my breath, but Saturday we've got ALDSs. I've got one team I love still in the race, plus three teams who've never won a World Series plus the Guardians who haven't won since the Truman administration, and the White Sox who I'd love to see do well. Obviously there's one spot in the championship series' reserved for a perennial figure, thanks to the Dodgers-Braves series, but there's still room for spontaneity in all the other ones. Kinda pulling for a Brewers-Yanks series but am fine with virtually everything but Dodgers-Rays. 

Wild Card Series' Day 2: How's THAT ONE the Even One??

 

I just don't understand this at all. Going into this wild card week, I was figuring that one of these would be really cut and dry, over before it started, and the rest would be back and forth. As it turns out, that was not the case at all. Two series I figured would cause me pain didn't even remotely. And the one that I figured would be a foregone conclusion...is going to game three. 

I'm...vexed. I knew the Braves had weaknesses worthy of being exploited. I just did not think the Phillies were good enough to exploit them at the moment. Very clearly the Braves are good at pointing out ours, like the defensive schematic being pointless if Arraez isn't in at second, the bullpen instability, the lack of general run support and the tendency to lay down meatballs at inopportune moments. We did a lot of that. Harper and Bohm made errors that, if they didn't tie and win the game respectfully, would have been further scrutinized.

All in all, Sanchie put on a clinic, the offense showed up and Bohm came to life yet again, Harper and Schwarber did some heavy lifting, and this team held the Braves down long enough to force a game 3. I do not know how well this is going to go, because the Phillies still have those issues that are concerning everyone, but...we forced a Game 3 against a team that's better than us. The Braves, even if they win this series, may not recover from nearly slipping against a Phils team that can't hit. The Dodgers could have fun with that, arguably more fun than they would if we somehow win this game. 

The Phils really know how to drive me up the wall some days. Maybe this works out. Kinda horrified about the prospect of LA but hey...maybe NOW we gain the momentum we should have all year. If not, Braves-Dodgers is what I was already prepping for anyway.

Anyway, the shellackings. So...the White Sox won a playoff series for the first time in years, the Astros lost in the first round and were exploited for being a weak division winner, and the fun wild card team gets to take on Cleveland and possibly reclaim the narrative of the whole season. I like this a lot better than 'well, it's the Astros......again..' Like, what the hell else can you even say about them at this point? They've sucked so hard they might go to another ALCS? 

The White Sox's contact battery was exactly as successful this playoff series as I'd hoped it'd be. Kyle Teel, Andrew Benintendi and Tristan Peters piled on the contact stuff to end Hunter Brown's day WAY earlier than I thought it would, then Chase Meidroth pulled it over the edge with a 3-run bomb off Peter Lambert, who the Astros already decided wasn't starting Game 3 and certainly wouldn't now. They now head to Cleveland with Davis Martin fully rested, Sean Burke riding pretty high, Kay and Fedde both viable options, and the offense fired up. Murakami came to the White Sox to lay low and made it to the playoffs immediately, and I love it for him.

I will give the Astros credit. Despite giving up, they never completely gave up.

[reads over a second time] Yeah.

They fought til the end. Jose Altuve, Cam Smith and Jeremy Pena all homered. The bullpen locked in more than the starters could. I think it's so fitting that the big error of the game was committed by Lucas Spence, because if it weren't for his four home runs in the A's series, the Astros probably wouldn't even have been a playoff team to begin with. They are here because of Lucas Spence, and they're booted from the playoffs after two games...also because of Lucas Spence. Full circle. Spence probably has a nice career ahead of him, or the Astros hope he does, as Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo and Brice Mathews haven't really firmed things up at all. 

I figured the Yankees had the edge over Boston. I did not think it would go like this.

Basically...the Sox' bullpen ruined two good starts by their main guns, the main bats didn't show up, and the Yankees, at home, took advantage of every last misstep. Tonight, Cody Bellinger was the kingkiller, with the 3-run bomb off of Garrett Whitlock, after Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, George Lombard and Luis Garcia Jr. had already made a mess of things. People are worried about the lack of Aaron Judge, but considering that Bellinger, Jones, Lombard, Volpe, Chisholm, Grisham, Wells, Garcia and especially Ben Rice have come through in huge moments for this team, they can worry less. The whole time, the Yankees have been trying to be more than just 'Aaron Judge's team', and right now that's what we are. The whole team won this series and kept it short. 

Rays-Yankees is gonna be TOUGH. I think we can find a way through but the Rays have a whole mess of weapons, and they will not make it easy. If either team makes the ALCS, they'll deserve it. I hope the Yanks can rise to the occasion, but the Rays have been too much for them at many points. I just hope this time will be different. 

There was a moment where it genuinely looked like the Sox were tanking for seed choice. They were losing the last few games of the year, and I thought it was because they wanted to face Houston and not the Yanks. Which would have been a smart move because they'd have won against Houston. In all actuality it was because they completely ran out of steam and had nothing left by the time they got to the Bronx. 

The Sox still got a decent start out of Sonny Gray, a helpful homer from Willson Contreras, and a winning throw from Nate Eaton to nab Ben Rice at home. That's it. Garrett Crochet was not ready and soiled the game. Whitlock, as good as he's been this year, didn't help either. Rutschman, Abreu, Rafaela and Durbin were listless. It was a relatively cut and dry series, which is great for me personally but you never want that for Yanks-Sox. It's gotta be back and forth, that's more fun. I appreciate the ease of it all but...it's just clear they were exhausted just from their second half comeback. That's a win in itself, and hopefully the Chad Tracy era yields more seasons like these, but...yeah, not the immediate gratification many fans were hoping for.

The wild card teams that make the playoffs always are correspondent to their momentum. If they're gaining as the season ends they've got a shot, if they're losing they may be in trouble. The Cubs had some momentum going into September and lost it...around the same time the Padres gained theirs. So this one was honestly pretty simple.

A lot is gonna be said going into next year about Xander Bogaerts. He hasn't put up Sox numbers as a Padre but he's been plenty good, and his big RBIs this series are proof that he can be helpful in the postseason. Maybe there's merit to that contract after all. Same with Machado, who looked like a lost cause in the first half and wound up with a 30 homer/90 RBI season anyway, just with a bit less heft than usual. These guys can be helpful even off their peaks. Of course, Gavin Sheets was the real hero, breaking the game open with a massive bomb and making the eventual win a foregone conclusion.

The Padres looked amazing this series. Unfortunately, now they have to play the best team in baseball. The hope will be that the momentum holds and they can best Milwaukee in an upset, but this will be tough with the lack of real starting depth the Padres have. 

So here's the thing. Tropicana Field might be cursed now. Which is intriguing.

The last game of the season, the Sox were GOING TO host the Cubs at Fenway, and then a huge storm came and MLB said 'no, this game has to be played, we have Tropicana Field open, get down there'. Let's forget that the Yanks and O's also have a game in the line of fire, and that's not gonna get played at all, but Cubs-Sox needs to be played, even if they're both in, and even if the seeds are pretty solid. So the Cubs and Red Sox go down to Tampa, play in this meaningless game, Roman Anthony gets hurt, Alex Bregman attempts to play hurt. And then they both go for their playoff games and they both lose immediately. Rob Manfred, as he's going to a lot in the next six months, will insist there was no connection. But it's awfully suspicious that you hurl two teams out of their comfort zones and they both lose right after. And one guy gets hurt. 

The Cubs did not have any life this series. I also think they were at the mercy of their starting pitching options, and Boyd and Gausman were not as strong postseason options as they were last year. The bullpen didn't help either. And both PCA and Bregman failed to really make much of an impact. There is definitely a future for this team, and Pedro Ramirez had a very nice rookie come-up as a depth infielder and contact bat, but next year they'll need to contend with the Cardinals, who will inevitably strike back, and the Pirates, who'll hopefully have a healthier Paul Skenes, and unless the pitching suddenly reverts to classic energy [getting Steele and Horton back at full strength would certainly help], it'll be much tougher. 

Alright, all down to Atlanta tonight. Would love a Phils win somehow but I also have tempered my expectations and know, realistically, who the better team is. Intrigued nonetheless.

Wild Card Series' Day 1: Close and Not Close

 

Okay, let's just...temper ourselves, first of all. The Phillies aren't playing like a playoff team. They haven't since like August. They got in due to some luck, don't have much hitting energy left, never really did to begin with, and have the same issues, including bullpen troubles, as always. The Braves are the better team, the Phillies needed to find moments to best them in between their own troubles, and while they did...the decision to let Jhoan Duran face Michael Harris was the one that did them in. I think they were trying to do a Dave Roberts management thing, putting in the best pitcher rather than the most logical one. It's what Roberts does with starters in the postseason. Mattingly did it with the one good reliever he has, just plopping him down and hoping he does enough of the work to chill down the core. It worked for 1 and 2/3rds innings, and then it backfired.

Austin Riley's 3-run bomb shouldn't be diminished, as it's a huge moment to save a season that was in danger of falling off, nor should the offensive work from Ozzie Albies and Mike Yastrzemski. The truth of the matter is the Phils had Atlanta on the ropes, they made what they thought was the best decision, with their best reliever, and they lost the game because they thought they were better off with one more Duran batter than any other reliever, which would make sense had he not faced five already. If Bowlan goes in, I think there's still a chance we win that game.

It comes down to Cristopher Sanchez today. If for some reason he locks in and we tie the series...I still don't think we're taking it because the Braves are simply a better team. Yesterday at least proved we can move the needle a little if we're not busy getting in our own way.

I think it was fitting that the game between two also-rans without terrific records was a bullpen game. Unfortunately for the Astros, that already left them at a disadvantage, as their bullpen's been quite terrible this year, and that Bryan King was the first to flinch isn't shocking at all. The White Sox are capable of this sort of contact energy when the other guys aren't looking, and without a Lambert or a Brown to fall back on, the Astros were leveled and, frankly, human.

Also, this being a bullpen game may have fooled the Astros into a sense of security, because Hagen Smith is technically a reliever, but since he came up midyear the Sox have been slowly stretching out his innings and trusting him with more and more responsibility. The idea, I assume, is to let him start next year [something that will be welcome considering how many Sox guys may have overexerted themselves this year], and so this being an extended opener spot for Smith sort of turned into a preview of that. Smith went three innings, gave up 2 hits and no earned runs. Credit to Grant Taylor, Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin for the assist. It's wild that Jordan Hicks seemed to regain his mojo as the year went on, and is back to being a strong spot guy. 

Anyway, Sox are up 1-0, and are very close to doing what twenty earlier incarnations of the team could not [win a playoff series]. I will be rooting for them.

Anyway, uh...this one was nice, wasn't it? 

I'm being very careful because the Sox could absolutely come back, but...them landing in the playoffs after burning through the goodwill in 2 months and robbing themselves of Alex Cora, then coming back and going wild...that's a win in and of itself. That's a moral victory. Payton Tolle having a strong enough start on his own merits, that's a big win. Everything else was essentially as expected. The bullpen did not hold up, the lineup shuddered at the prospect of rising to the occasion, Roman Anthony's likely hurt again, and Brayan Bello's back to square one. 

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a highlight reel tonight. Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches and allowed 2 hits, a walk and ten strikeouts. George Lombard went 3 for 4 with 2 runs. Austin Wells went 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs. Spencer Jones had a big hit and scored 2 runs. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber were untouchable. And Ben Rice made up for the lack of Aaron Judge by hitting TWO big home runs, one to pad the lead and another in the eighth, a grandy, to make this a foregone conclusion. Rice has had a HUGE season, and continues to be a spark plug as a power bat. 

Fried vs. Gray next. Would love the Yanks to close this one out, but when have the Sox ever made it easy?

And finally...JEEEEEEZ.

I kinda figured the Padres would have the edge just for the sake of their momentum vs. the Cubs's, but my GOD. The Cubs barely showed up. Their choice for top starter, Matt Boyd, is in the midst of a recovery year and didn't hold down the Padres well at all, giving up home runs to Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, the marquee guys. The bullpen didn't do a heck of a lot better, and when you've gotta throw Assad and Civale out there instead of specialists, they're gonna make mistakes. Altogether the Cubs had three hits in this game. Only one was off of Michael King, who was absolutely electric, going 7 strong and striking out 8. The other two were off of returning hero Joe Musgrove, who did well enough for his return to the mound. Two of the hits were from Nico Hoerner, the other was from Seiya Suzuki, meaning PCA, Bregman, Swanson and Happ could not get a single thing done. 

The Yanks bodying the Sox behind Schlittler was something you may have predicted, but this absolute shellacking the Padres performed? Maybe the Dodgers were commanding so much of the narrative that nobody was really noticing the Padres get hot. And now they have the leverage, the home crowd and the pitching edge, with Nick Pivetta looking to seal the deal today against a down Kevin Gausman season. Can the Cubs respond? 

I'm thinking at least two series' end today. I'd love to have three, but that would imply the Astros are gonna lay down and die, and they really never do that when I want them to.

Brain Sku

 

Remember a week or so after Tarik Skubal made it to LA and he was only doing okay and people were worried the Dodgers gave Zyhir Hope away for nothing? I mean, all will be revealed when Skubal signs with somebody after the season, but...you don't get Tarik Skubal on your team because of the okay starts. So when the good starts happen, nobody's gotta be shocked. He's Tarik Skubal. He does this.

Sku in LA has been as successful as you might expect. In 9 starts, he's 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 60 Ks. This is exactly what he was doing in Detroit but with a much thinner ERA. He had some trouble for about a week and a half, got over it, got better and put in another excellent season, one the Dodgers are now reaping the benefits of. Skubal has been a very nice addition to the Dodgers' rotation, which now has Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Emmet Sheehan all working pretty well. The key to this team, once again, will be legging out starters as relief pieces, as Justin Wrobleski, Roki Sasaki, and I can only assume Eric Lauer if he's back this year, will be used in long relief and will strengthen the postseason bullpen...which, to be clear, is already very strong because Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer and Brock Stewart are all having great seasons and it won't be as hellish to call for a 'pen boost midgame. 

For the second year in a row, the Dodgers are entering the postseason as something other than the clear favorite. The Brewers will be the top seed, and though the Dodgers will also get a first round bye, they will have to work their way up to a prevailing spot. The Braves, Phillies, Cubs and Padres all want the opportunity to take them down, and the Padres have done it before. The Dodgers are very good this year, but have lesser performances from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith, which is...their core. They also are just now getting production out of Kyle Tucker, but who knows how long that'll last. The pieces of this team are excellent, and could potentially get them a third straight ring, but...the strings are showing. It's a more human version of this team, with parts that can go wrong [Edwin Diaz, the catching for a month, Enrique Hernandez FOR NOW..] and guys who can, and have, not show up for big moments. Thanks to a really easy schedule, the Dodgers are 15-5 in September, and it's worth asking...would they still have been 15-5 last year given this schedule? They are better than bad teams, even depleted, heading into October...but are they gonna be better than good teams when it counts? No one's quite sure yet.

I think Ohtani's gonna be the big question mark. A lot has been made of Aaron Judge missing Yankee playoff games, but Judge is notoriously bad in October. Ohtani's got 11 postseason homers and 24 postseason RBIs, and that's just in two seasons. If he's got everything straightened out, he'll be that postseason hero again, which sounds like it'll be pretty easy to do, but...if he's not all the way there in October and struggles...that may say all it needs to. The Dodgers are going to fight like hell to ensure that nothing can stop them, but as we've seen in 2019, 2022 and 2023, even if they're extremely good, there could end up being someone better when they don't expect it. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays claimed him off waivers before the season and he's been a major contributor to their astonishing regular season run.

Somebody Has to Win

 
It is...the last week of the season. The thread lines are getting wrapped up before the playoffs start. Everybody is jockeying for position. The Rays already have a first round bye, the NL race is just coming down to wild card seeding. Everything is coming together.

The one issue is that not only do we not have an AL West champion yet, but neither team is above .500. So...if either the Rangers or Astros could stop not wanting it for a moment, we could actually figure out what the story of this division will be.

At the moment, the story of the AL West in 2026 has just been not committing. The Mariners were primed to win out this year, and they continuously refused to put anything together. The A's had a big push early on but completely fell apart once the tentpole hitters got hurt. The Rangers were technically next best but they kept frigging losing. They remained determined, refusing to deal at the deadline despite nearly giving Jacob deGrom to the Braves, and then they roared back in September with the return of some needed pieces. And yet...they're still under .500. They had a leg up on the Astros a moment ago and now they're tied again at 1st. The Astros, meanwhile, have bubbled under, grabbed 1st for a bit but haven't had it commandingly arguably, and don't want to let a postseason opportunity slip by for a second consecutive year [man imagine like...not making the playoffs for a decade]. 

So what happens now? Well...somebody is going to need to show up. Either the division winner will be a momentum team and slay some people despite the record, or it will be a cut and dry in and out appearance during wild card week. Either way, it needs to be earned.

The Rangers have become a very scrappy, hard to keep down sort of team, which is what happens when Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran play crucial roles. Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Brandon Nimmo make up a really nice core which has kept the team from completely sinking under recent losses. The successor for Marcus Semien has arrived almost immediately, and it is Justin Foscue and his contact work. And then you've got the return of Nathan Eovaldi, utilized as a long relief guy with perks. Eovaldi's had a down year after his strong 2025, which is kind of expected, but he's still got 11 wins and 147 Ks. Between Evo, deGrom and Gore, they're not exactly down on strikeout artists, and now that Cody Bradford's back it's even better. I think from a pitching standpoint they're better suited for October, as they also have Jacob Latz, Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander standing by. It's not as deep as the 2023 team, but they could surprise some people.

And then you have the Astros, who are dangerous enough to still be a factor. Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena and now Yainer Diaz have been very reliable at the plate. Alvy's obviously looking for an MVP, but quietly Paredes is somehow just as good right now? He's got 23 homers, 90 RBIs and an .800 OPS, and has gotten even better as the year's gone on. This is another all-timer year for Josh Hader in the ninth, a strong season for both Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski, and a surprise comeback from Peter Lambert. The Astros teams are just very well built, can sustain bad seasons and injuries, and can never be counted out. I owe it to the strength of the organization and the depth of the roster. The issue is, and this ties into why they're not a runaway 1st place team, you can tell this is a depleted version of this team. Big pieces have moved on, big homegrown players are in other markets, and the reinforcements haven't completely taken over yet. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Ethan Pecko, Miguel Ullola and Lucas Spence are here, but they're not running away with anything, at least not in the way that some of the Rangers rookies are.

It's still a toss up, and the fact that the Mets have been fighting back against the Rangers and the Astros have had no trouble with the Mariners proves it's not a sensible path at all. It could come down to the wire, and the winner may still not be a .500 team. I think, just from a logic standpoint, that the Astros will probably win out just because they've had more season leverage...but I still kind of want the Rangers to work an upset at the eleventh hour. The Astros thrive with a late rally, but the Rangers have proven that they can find momentum even before the Astros do.

Whoever wins will definitely earn it. Where they go from there is up to them.

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know...the most important guy moved at the deadline and all...

98 to Beat

 

Now only could the Brewers set a new season wins record this year, which they've already pretty much done, but they could be a 100-game winner in an era where winning 100 games is so rare. And they could do it with a smaller market, farm system based team that's only getting better. I know they're in Philly this week and fundamentally I still want them to lose, but...considering that they're also my pie-in-the-sky World Series winner, I just want good things to keep happening to this team.

The way I've figured out that this is the best lineup in baseball is that even the guys who switch in and out still make it the best. David Hamilton is a glorified utility man who swoops in and covers 2nd and 3rd, and he's really good on defense and good in a pinch offensively, in addition to leading the team in stolen bases with 28. Luis Lara was brought in as an auxiliary outfield guy, to back up Frelick, and he's been wonderful, hitting .250 with 24 RBIs in 57 games, plus some amazing outfield catches. Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers are essentially sharing 1st base and both are wonderful, with Vaughn hitting .300 and leaning on his contact skills while Bauers leads the team in homers and has a .397 OBP. 

And Joey Ortiz was essentially made an infield swing once Cooper Pratt came up, and he's parlayed that into a starting 3rd base job thanks to some elevated batting numbers, including a .267 average, 9 homers and 46 RBIs. Ortiz is usually the ninth batter but he makes himself known, and he's a lot more dangerous than the usual caliber of guys batting ninth. And that's not even mentioning the fact that Gary Sanchez, who only catches against lefties, has 11 homers and 36 RBIs. They've got it all worked out. Chourio, Turang, Bauers, Mitchell and Contreras are a mighty backbone of this team, Pratt and Lara are both 21 and feel like they belong, and Made, Williams, Pena and Fischer haven't even gotten here yet. 

I put the bullpen in a similar category as the lineup, because it's very multifaceted. You'd think it was as simple as Megill and Uribe, but Chad Patrick and Aaron Ashby are long men that could start but are better utilized in relief, and they both have 9+ wins. D.L. Hall finally works as a setup man. Jojo Romero isn't Cardinals good but he's a handy guy to have around. Grant Anderson's a good piece too. It all fits together really well, and supplants an already-strong rotation combo of Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser, who I assume's getting the third spot as Drohan and Harrison have fallen off. 

There's so much depth, so much truly working, and so many areas that aren't letting up, that I still think these guys have the best World Series case of anyone. The Dodgers are gonna try for it, and they have the legs, but the Brewers may have enough to keep them down, and potentially the rest of the NL. Whoever ends up beating these guys will need to do so with everything they have, because the Brewers truly have everything right now.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been looking at playoff situations for over a decade. He's staring down the barrel of another as we speak. 

Comin' Up From Behind

 

Second year in a row the Guardians have hung back for the race and sprung forward for the division in the last month. They've gotten extremely good at this. Just waiting patiently for another team to fall apart and staying consistent, with a lower budget and lower stakes. They got the injuries out of the way, got the blown saves out of their system, and now the best version of this team has the division, is painstakingly close to a first round bye, and might be a sleeper favorite this postseason. 

The reality of the postseason picture is that the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, the three best teams in the league are all in the same corner of the bracket because of how the seeding works. Meaning the other three teams, inferior as they are, will have their own part of the map, and will square off to see who gets to be the underdog in the ALCS. The Guardians have a spot in this, and it's looking like the other two will be whoever wins the AL West [currently the Rangers, at .500] and whoever takes the final AL Wild Card spot [looking like the White Sox at the moment]. That's three okay teams, at best good, who will be looking to play one of those three AL East titans for a World Series spot. It's gonna be a game of momentum. Whichever of these teams gets the most momentum could go all the way. And if any of these teams...know how to ride momentum...it is the Cleveland Guardians. Because that's how they managed to get a division title, potentially, even after nearly losing their way in July.

The Guardians are the kind of team where, if something snaps off, they make an even sturdier fix. The catching situation wasn't working, so they added Patrick Bailey and that's been a real success. Kyle Manzardo still can't really hit at the MLB level, so they got Nathaniel Lowe, who's a classic power 1st baseman who can plug in anywhere. Chase DeLauter kept getting hurt, so Jo Adell became outfield security, and he's been fantastic, with 6 homers and 31 RBIs in 42 games. The fans love him in Cleveland, as I knew they would, and he could be a burgeoning star for the Guardians, arguably more than he was for the Angels. Plus, Angel Martinez is hitting his second wind, and could get 60 RBIs before the week's out, in addition to the strong rookie campaign from Angel Genao and the walk-off theatrics of Brayan Rocchio. This is a way more efficient version of this team than we started out with, and the hitting does feel like a layered variety of people who can step up. Bazzana, Ramirez, Kwan, De Lauter and Adell are all capable of being the hero, as are the smaller guys. And even though nobody's finishing the season with 20 homers, the contact work and the base-running, all the fine details of the game, have been excellent. 

And then on top of that, if the postseason rotation is Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Tanner Bibee, with the occasional assist from Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo...that's better than what a lot of other teams will throw out there. Better than the White Sox, surely. And who knows how the Rangers' rotation will do, or the Astros'? I think Williams is a genuinely dangerous pitcher with some definite velocity pros. I think Messick is so hard to hit and will be a postseason threat again. And I think Bibee's better than his numbers would have you believe. So that's a pretty good formation, especially with a little more rest.

The way it's looking right now, the Guardians may have lucked into the most prime playoff position they've had in years. They just need to keep it. They need to stay ahead of the White Sox, and be strong enough to take down whoever wins that wild card bracket. And they need to keep doing what they've been doing all year, finding away and holding onto whatever momentum they can. 

Coming Tomorrow- The past few years he's been the Brewers' secret weapon, always coming alive midyear, even as the 9 man. 

Better to be Steady Than Not

 

People are going to be discussing and dissecting exactly what went wrong with this Mets team for years probably. It killed the goodwill of the 2024 run, soured the friendship of the two top players, chased away two of the savviest trade acquisitions in a while and made competition even less of a possibility going forward. The decision to let Pete Alonso walk and replace him with Jorge Polanco is one of the dumbest ones in recent memory, and the fact that they actually found a working 1st base option in Jared Young only for the best pitcher on the team to step on his head and give him a concussion is just a terrific sign of cosmic irony. 

The issue, much like the contracts the 2012 Marlins took on, or the ones the 2013 Indians took on, or the ones the 2015 Padres took on, was that there needed to be a harmony between the preexisting core and the entering personnel. If there's barely a core to begin with, the contracts won't do anything. If there's too much of a core, the contracts will clash. And in this case, there was a core that was already becoming incompatible, and adding these new contracts did not help.

And so, the best players on this Mets team were the ones who remained steady, fundamentally, while everything else was tumultuous and indistinct. Juan Soto had a decent enough season but missed time. Francisco Lindor similarly was out for a bit and did what he could when he returned but it wasn't much. The core of this team were the guys that either were too young to give into the bullshit or just too consistent to care. Luis Torrens is a perfect example. Career system catcher, does what he can wherever he goes. Has become a nice piece with the Mets, everything Tomas Nido was supposed to be. Torrens was one of the best players on the Mets this year, he was excellent defensively, and he had 9 homers and 40 RBIs in 88 games. He came in, did his job, and didn't start shit. With so many people who couldn't even do that, it was very welcome.

I also think Nolan McLean, Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing all impressed this season because they were just trying to prove themselves, and weren't too high on their own egos. McLean could have coasted on his own resume after a strong WBC run, but he instead put in the work and despite a higher ERA, left with a nice full sophomore year, with a 3.18 ERA, 11 wins and 189 Ks. Zac Thornton also falls into that category, he made the most of the call-up and had a 3.40 ERA in 14 games. Jonah Tong's slowly figuring himself out as well. And Benge and Ewing became the backbone of this team by using the frenzy around the big guns distract the media from their early struggles, and by the time people were paying attention they were excellent stories. Benge hit .275 this year with 19 homers, 61 RBIs and 22 steals. Ewing hit 10 homers, 40 RBIs and stole 24 bases. Those two are the future, and they're very much ahead of the pack, which is wild to say about two guys under 24. 

There's a lot of money baked into this team's success, and it's the guys who aren't overpaid, aren't overexposed and aren't under pressure who are doing the most. That should be an important piece of information to carry into 2027.

Coming Tonight: He was fine in LA but never really hit the heights he was supposed to. Somehow he's getting closer in Cleveland.