98 to Beat

 

Now only could the Brewers set a new season wins record this year, which they've already pretty much done, but they could be a 100-game winner in an era where winning 100 games is so rare. And they could do it with a smaller market, farm system based team that's only getting better. I know they're in Philly this week and fundamentally I still want them to lose, but...considering that they're also my pie-in-the-sky World Series winner, I just want good things to keep happening to this team.

The way I've figured out that this is the best lineup in baseball is that even the guys who switch in and out still make it the best. David Hamilton is a glorified utility man who swoops in and covers 2nd and 3rd, and he's really good on defense and good in a pinch offensively, in addition to leading the team in stolen bases with 28. Luis Lara was brought in as an auxiliary outfield guy, to back up Frelick, and he's been wonderful, hitting .250 with 24 RBIs in 57 games, plus some amazing outfield catches. Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers are essentially sharing 1st base and both are wonderful, with Vaughn hitting .300 and leaning on his contact skills while Bauers leads the team in homers and has a .397 OBP. 

And Joey Ortiz was essentially made an infield swing once Cooper Pratt came up, and he's parlayed that into a starting 3rd base job thanks to some elevated batting numbers, including a .267 average, 9 homers and 46 RBIs. Ortiz is usually the ninth batter but he makes himself known, and he's a lot more dangerous than the usual caliber of guys batting ninth. And that's not even mentioning the fact that Gary Sanchez, who only catches against lefties, has 11 homers and 36 RBIs. They've got it all worked out. Chourio, Turang, Bauers, Mitchell and Contreras are a mighty backbone of this team, Pratt and Lara are both 21 and feel like they belong, and Made, Williams, Pena and Fischer haven't even gotten here yet. 

I put the bullpen in a similar category as the lineup, because it's very multifaceted. You'd think it was as simple as Megill and Uribe, but Chad Patrick and Aaron Ashby are long men that could start but are better utilized in relief, and they both have 9+ wins. D.L. Hall finally works as a setup man. Jojo Romero isn't Cardinals good but he's a handy guy to have around. Grant Anderson's a good piece too. It all fits together really well, and supplants an already-strong rotation combo of Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser, who I assume's getting the third spot as Drohan and Harrison have fallen off. 

There's so much depth, so much truly working, and so many areas that aren't letting up, that I still think these guys have the best World Series case of anyone. The Dodgers are gonna try for it, and they have the legs, but the Brewers may have enough to keep them down, and potentially the rest of the NL. Whoever ends up beating these guys will need to do so with everything they have, because the Brewers truly have everything right now.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been looking at playoff situations for over a decade. He's staring down the barrel of another as we speak. 

Comin' Up From Behind

 

Second year in a row the Guardians have hung back for the race and sprung forward for the division in the last month. They've gotten extremely good at this. Just waiting patiently for another team to fall apart and staying consistent, with a lower budget and lower stakes. They got the injuries out of the way, got the blown saves out of their system, and now the best version of this team has the division, is painstakingly close to a first round bye, and might be a sleeper favorite this postseason. 

The reality of the postseason picture is that the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, the three best teams in the league are all in the same corner of the bracket because of how the seeding works. Meaning the other three teams, inferior as they are, will have their own part of the map, and will square off to see who gets to be the underdog in the ALCS. The Guardians have a spot in this, and it's looking like the other two will be whoever wins the AL West [currently the Rangers, at .500] and whoever takes the final AL Wild Card spot [looking like the White Sox at the moment]. That's three okay teams, at best good, who will be looking to play one of those three AL East titans for a World Series spot. It's gonna be a game of momentum. Whichever of these teams gets the most momentum could go all the way. And if any of these teams...know how to ride momentum...it is the Cleveland Guardians. Because that's how they managed to get a division title, potentially, even after nearly losing their way in July.

The Guardians are the kind of team where, if something snaps off, they make an even sturdier fix. The catching situation wasn't working, so they added Patrick Bailey and that's been a real success. Kyle Manzardo still can't really hit at the MLB level, so they got Nathaniel Lowe, who's a classic power 1st baseman who can plug in anywhere. Chase DeLauter kept getting hurt, so Jo Adell became outfield security, and he's been fantastic, with 6 homers and 31 RBIs in 42 games. The fans love him in Cleveland, as I knew they would, and he could be a burgeoning star for the Guardians, arguably more than he was for the Angels. Plus, Angel Martinez is hitting his second wind, and could get 60 RBIs before the week's out, in addition to the strong rookie campaign from Angel Genao and the walk-off theatrics of Brayan Rocchio. This is a way more efficient version of this team than we started out with, and the hitting does feel like a layered variety of people who can step up. Bazzana, Ramirez, Kwan, De Lauter and Adell are all capable of being the hero, as are the smaller guys. And even though nobody's finishing the season with 20 homers, the contact work and the base-running, all the fine details of the game, have been excellent. 

And then on top of that, if the postseason rotation is Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Tanner Bibee, with the occasional assist from Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo...that's better than what a lot of other teams will throw out there. Better than the White Sox, surely. And who knows how the Rangers' rotation will do, or the Astros'? I think Williams is a genuinely dangerous pitcher with some definite velocity pros. I think Messick is so hard to hit and will be a postseason threat again. And I think Bibee's better than his numbers would have you believe. So that's a pretty good formation, especially with a little more rest.

The way it's looking right now, the Guardians may have lucked into the most prime playoff position they've had in years. They just need to keep it. They need to stay ahead of the White Sox, and be strong enough to take down whoever wins that wild card bracket. And they need to keep doing what they've been doing all year, finding away and holding onto whatever momentum they can. 

Coming Tomorrow- The past few years he's been the Brewers' secret weapon, always coming alive midyear, even as the 9 man. 

Better to be Steady Than Not

 

People are going to be discussing and dissecting exactly what went wrong with this Mets team for years probably. It killed the goodwill of the 2024 run, soured the friendship of the two top players, chased away two of the savviest trade acquisitions in a while and made competition even less of a possibility going forward. The decision to let Pete Alonso walk and replace him with Jorge Polanco is one of the dumbest ones in recent memory, and the fact that they actually found a working 1st base option in Jared Young only for the best pitcher on the team to step on his head and give him a concussion is just a terrific sign of cosmic irony. 

The issue, much like the contracts the 2012 Marlins took on, or the ones the 2013 Indians took on, or the ones the 2015 Padres took on, was that there needed to be a harmony between the preexisting core and the entering personnel. If there's barely a core to begin with, the contracts won't do anything. If there's too much of a core, the contracts will clash. And in this case, there was a core that was already becoming incompatible, and adding these new contracts did not help.

And so, the best players on this Mets team were the ones who remained steady, fundamentally, while everything else was tumultuous and indistinct. Juan Soto had a decent enough season but missed time. Francisco Lindor similarly was out for a bit and did what he could when he returned but it wasn't much. The core of this team were the guys that either were too young to give into the bullshit or just too consistent to care. Luis Torrens is a perfect example. Career system catcher, does what he can wherever he goes. Has become a nice piece with the Mets, everything Tomas Nido was supposed to be. Torrens was one of the best players on the Mets this year, he was excellent defensively, and he had 9 homers and 40 RBIs in 88 games. He came in, did his job, and didn't start shit. With so many people who couldn't even do that, it was very welcome.

I also think Nolan McLean, Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing all impressed this season because they were just trying to prove themselves, and weren't too high on their own egos. McLean could have coasted on his own resume after a strong WBC run, but he instead put in the work and despite a higher ERA, left with a nice full sophomore year, with a 3.18 ERA, 11 wins and 189 Ks. Zac Thornton also falls into that category, he made the most of the call-up and had a 3.40 ERA in 14 games. Jonah Tong's slowly figuring himself out as well. And Benge and Ewing became the backbone of this team by using the frenzy around the big guns distract the media from their early struggles, and by the time people were paying attention they were excellent stories. Benge hit .275 this year with 19 homers, 61 RBIs and 22 steals. Ewing hit 10 homers, 40 RBIs and stole 24 bases. Those two are the future, and they're very much ahead of the pack, which is wild to say about two guys under 24. 

There's a lot of money baked into this team's success, and it's the guys who aren't overpaid, aren't overexposed and aren't under pressure who are doing the most. That should be an important piece of information to carry into 2027.

Coming Tonight: He was fine in LA but never really hit the heights he was supposed to. Somehow he's getting closer in Cleveland. 

Whatever Gets You There

 

Connor Norby's trajectory is fascinating. He's brought up by the Orioles in 2024 as an infield contact bat, is traded to Miami for Trevor Rogers and becomes a corner infield power bat, dilutes himself thanks to injuries, hands in a very weak 2026 campaign in Miami and gets himself traded to Denver for Victor Vodnik, a trade where I'm still not entirely sure who was selling and who was buying, and then suddenly solves the Rockies' second base problem with a positive month and a half of contact hitting. The fact that this man did not work in Baltimore or Miami yet somehow can work with the Rockies, a team that either rewards contact hitting or buries it, is astounding. I think the Rox are gonna go with Norby at 2nd after 2026, because they seem to have gotten him to work. 

And yet if the O's hadn't traded him, likely to make room for Jackson Holliday, he'd be vying for that all-important third base spot with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Blaze Alexander and Coby Mayo. And uh...he'd be losing, because CES has already become a fan favorite in Baltimore on account of his power abilities, Alexander had a .300 season despite injuries slowing him down, and Coby Mayo is hitting .315 against lefties with 16 of his 24 home runs and a 1.097 OPS. Mayo was one of the people Norby lost playing time to, and now we're finally seeing why, because if this guy can learn to hit like that against righties then the O's might be in business. 

It just shows how wild the O's talent farm has been in the last few years, seeing as they were buyers, and now they've been sellers the last two years, so they've given away talent to teams like the Brewers and Marlins, and now they've received talent from teams like the Red Sox, Nationals, Twins, Rays and Mariners. So far this half they've seen a Nationals outfield farmhand gets some starts, a Mariners relief project become one of the best relievers on the team, and a handful of new prospects become organizational diamonds. All while the guy they traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers for justified the deal with another strong, if inferior to 2025, season on the mound.

The Rockies, meanwhile, are trying to do what they can with 'what the hell' deals like the Norby one. Already, they've seen Jake McCarthy and Mickey Moniak, two guys that organizations gave up on, become standouts for them. They've also seen a guy they got from the Yankees' farm system for practically nothing go from an also-ran to the starting first baseman with a relatively high season. Is this 'we'll take anybody and make 'em great' mentality owing to Paul DePodesta's regime being in full swing? The reclamation projects used to be 'uhhh Edouard Julien needs a job' or 'we can try Austin Gomber', and now it's 'Troy Johnston's an insane contact hitter that gets on base and we can totally DH him' and 'why not have Tomoyuki Sugano out there every 5 days slowing people down' or 'I think we finally can get Adael Amador hitting at the MLB level.' This year was bad for Colorado, but I feel like you're seeing things come around. Especially if Goodman, Rumfield, Karros, Carrigg, McCarthy, Norby and Veen are all in it for the long run. 

The moral is that eventually we get to where we're supposed to be, even if we take a weird path to get there. I think Connor Norby's in position to be the best he's ever been in Denver, and in turn it's made Coby Mayo a big force in Baltimore. In time it all smooths itself out.

Coming Tomorrow- For everything he's gone through in his first 10 or so years in the bigs, to become the only steady part of the most tumultuous team in baseball this year certainly is an accomplishment. 

Block Arte

 Okay. So it's become clear that, as bad as the Angels have been this year, and in general under Arte Moreno, they could potentially be better next year. I don't know if Zach Neto or Reid Detmers are gonna get dealt after the season, I don't know if they're really gonna commit to a deeper rebuild, but...now that competent people are in charge, this team's bound to do something successful.

It's not that they didn't spend money in the Moreno era, they just spent money and the guys didn't play worth any of it. Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Anthony Rendon, C.J. Wilson, Justin Upton, Jered Weaver, they all took large paydays and then no longer had an incentive to do well for the Angels. Shohei Ohtani was the outlier, he didn't get the memo and kept playing like a champ every year til the contract wore out. But these teams, even if they could get big free agents, could never go all the way because they were never built to. The overhead in those big pieces could not spread to the depth of the team, and so it was 'why is this team with these two all-timers not winning?'. Well because that's all they have.

This year, of course, was similar. Mike Trout actually had a halfway decent, fuller season, playing in 140+ games, hitting .241 with 20 homers and 53 RBIs. This is not peak Trout, but it's better than he's been in years. This team also had Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Wade Meckler and Oswald Peraza as lineup supplanters who had hero moments of their own. Neto's season, while not QUITE star making, was pretty excellent, with 26 homers and 74 RBIs, some power numbers a lot of people didn't really know he had. This is also a season where Reid Detmers struck out 204, Walbert Urena had a 2.74 ERA as a rookie, Jose Soriano had a blistering first half, and basically every other pitcher was sort of there too. The pitching was where the lack of depth killed this team, because you can't just keep throwing Ryan Johnson, Jack Kochanowicz and Grayson Rodriguez out there, all with very high ERAs, and say you're doing everything you can. That's when you get Caden Dana or Sam Aldegheri to come in and help, but they didn't want to do that at all this year.

So it was just a painful wait for Yusei Kikuchi to come back, because despite the injuries, there's someone who can actually make a start worthwhile. He's been alright since he got back, the occasional messy start but a lot more low-scoring, dominant affairs. I don't think he's Jays good anymore but he's doing the trick for the moment, which will do until Urena can properly helm this rotation. Whatever they try next year, they NEED to have a better working rotation model, because if it's 2 guys who are really good and 3 guys who can't keep runs down, you have to have a better plan of action or else it'll become clear you're just riding the season out.

I echo the cautious optimism for the Angels' new regime. Hopefully they get this team back to the postseason and erase the worries of this era. And at the very least, if they go 3-3 in this last stretch they avoid losing 100 games for the first time in the franchise's history. Wouldn't that be nice? They play the A's this week, those should be easier wins, right??

Coming Tonight: Never would have thought a trade to Denver would revitalize this guy's career but here we are.

Geno Commitment

 

When Geno left the Reds, he was a replacement power bat with most of his extra edge sanded off and a lot of issues that had piled up. He left, joined the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Mariners again and became a great hitter again. So when he came back to the Reds on a one-year deal, one of two things was gonna happen. Either he'd have another strong year and bring the Reds to October...or he wanted to play somewhere he enjoyed and was calming back down for his age-34 season. The latter happened, and nobody should be especially shocked.

It's still a decent enough year for Geno, with 24 homers and 69 RBIs, but he's a .210 hitter again, he's replacement level again and his consistency and accuracy are gone. He was also a limper centerpiece of a much more sporadic Reds team, diluted by the lack of success from T.J. Friedl, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Matt McLain, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Noelvi Marte and Spencer Steer, who were supposed to be the core of the team going forward. Like it definitely feels like all the failsafes sort of sputtered out this year. Rhett Lowder was finally healthy and he wasn't very good at all, going 6-11 with a 5.80 ERA. Abbott, Lodolo and Brady Singer all have WHIPs over 1.450. Brandon Williamson just got back and he's still not back to where he was. Ke'Bryan Hayes still cannot hit, and neither can Matt McLain. Blake Dunn was finally getting to some great MLB-level material but then he got hurt. The next stage, guys like Hector Rodriguez, Juan Brito and Carlos Jorge, is being filtered in, but at this rate it's mostly setting the stage for the *next* rebuild.

Because, let's be honest, the Reds are probably gonna crumple and toss a little after this season. Elly's gonna want to be traded, cause the Reds don't want to extend him. Singer, Pagan, Stephenson, Suarez, Burke and Friedl are all probably leaving. Who knows what shape Hunter Greene will be in when he's back. Maybe they try and shop Abbott, Marte and Steer as well. The guys who are definitely sticking around are Lodolo, Stewart, Greene, Hayes, Trevino and Chase Burns, and that's all very good. But...beyond that, what's nailed down? Not much. Getting Ozzie Cabrera, for a steal, will help short-term, but is this Reds team really back to waiting for the rebuild, after it felt like THIS rebuild would be the productive one?

It's frustrating. The Reds fans have been getting frustrated by teams like this for 30 years, making the playoffs but getting walloped, bringing up THE guy but losing him. At the very least Sal Stewart is looking like he'll be the next marquee guy for them, and he might win a Rookie of the Year. But...I don't know if Elly's gonna come back, and I don't know if the rotation's gonna look as good next year. So this, a fifth place finish with definite stars, might be as good as it looks for a while somehow. At least Geno got a victory lap I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- Every time I have to set up a post about this guy I make the same Lisa Loeb joke, and I will never know when the last time I get to make that joke will be, so I might as well keep making it. 

Broken Down the Middle

 

I did not think the Royals' 2026 season was going to end like this. Matt Quantraro might lose his job, Jac Caglianone is hobbling off the field, Salvador Perez has nothing left but 72 RBIs, Michael Massey and Carter Jensen are the only people still hitting, Vinnie Pasquantino's not the answer anymore, and Bobby Witt is on the heels of his first okay season since coming up. A miserable fifth place finish for a team that could have still theoretically competed this year. What a shock. 

I think what killed it was all the injuries. Cole Ragans, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Carlos Estevez, Stephen Kolek and Jonathan India missed a large chunk of this season. This was very much the season of the bench guys stepping up, and that alone couldn't really account for much. Nick Lofton, Tyler Tolbert and John Rave are good players having good seasons, but I still think about the fact that it's happening because so many people got hurt. Loftin might be a major figure for the Royals going forward in the same way that Whit Merrifield was. Rave is basically a better Kyle Isbel, and probably has more going for him than Isaac Collins. Tolbert's best bet might be bench work. I think ideally the Royals should build a version of this team that's sturdy enough to not go to shit the second people start dropping. Cause when you're left with Isaac Collins, Salvy Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, it may not be the best version of the team.

I give Noah Cameron a lot of credit for dialing in when things looked bleak. Cameron for the first half was a 5 ERA guy with some rotten luck and barely any run support, and suddenly around the 24th of July, things clicked, and since then he's had a 1.64 ERA with 57 Ks, a 4-0 record and none of the struggles that plagued him earlier on. This run includes a complete game shutout against the Angels, another 1-hit stint against the Twins with 8 strong innings of shutout ball, and four overall appearances without allowing any runs. This is the Noah Cameron that made himself known from the call-up last year, and with the core of the rotation aging, I sincerely hope this is the guy who can step up this year and take the reins of things. 

Not a hell of a lot to do this year for the Royals except the novelty factor. Anthony Gose has a 0.00 ERA in 10 appearances, and did you hear this guy used to be an outfielder. Craig Kimbrel is here, probably in his last season, and look at him fail to make any saves. This could be Salvy Perez's last season, except it probably won't be because I don't think he'll think he's done yet, except he could! Who knows? Bobby Witt Jr.'s hitting .276 and only has 18 home runs but for this Royals team that's still pretty impressive. It's kind of a mess honestly.

The infuriating thing is that even healthy next year, I still don't know if they're close to competing as is. And the core's getting old already. It's getting late early here, and who knows what the next iteration of the Royals will look like given this specific one.

Coming Tonight: He could have signed with the team that nearly got him to a World Series, but he wanted to go home. This should have been your first clue of what was about to happen. 

One 5 Year Plan After Another

 

From the moment the Nationals decided they were selling, they insisted that it was all going to be for the right reason. The rebuild would happen, the future would repopulate the team, and it'd all be worth it. Five years later, the Nats are still a fourth place team, the primary goal will be convincing their star shortstop to stick around, and they're likely still a couple more years away from really competing thanks to a gutted rotation and the worst bullpen in baseball. 

I think about the deal that brought Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to L.A. in 2021, and how it yielded a package of stars that was supposed to reinvigorate the system. And yes, it brought over Keibert Ruiz, who has been THE catcher ever since. This season he's finally providing decent hitting numbers again, batting .288 with 10 homers and 47 RBIs, not exactly his 2023-2024 production but definitely more on target. Ruiz is here til the end of the decade. But aside from Ruiz, that deal didn't really amount to much for Washington. Josiah Gray, the other big piece in that deal, had one all-star season as a Nats ace, then got hurt in early 2024, missed all of 2025, was supposed to start the season as a rotation piece and got hurt again, and just now made his debut as a long reliever. Gerardo Carillo also failed to meet expectations, and made his debut this year for Arizona. So yes, you get an everyday catcher with team longevity, but little else.

I think about some of those other deadline deals from 2021, and there's really not a ton that happened afterwards. The Yan Gomes/Josh Harrison A's deal got them, at most, Drew Millas, who's been a third string catcher for them. The Jon Lester deal got them Lane Thomas, which would later give them Jose Tena, who hasn't really performed for this team at all. The Kyle Schwarber deal got them nothing. The Brad Hand deal got them Riley Adams, another third string catcher. The Daniel Hudson deal got them Mason Thompson, who was counterproductive for them. The fact that a year after the trade deadline season that was supposed to bring the Nats back, they still needed the Soto deal to further replenish the pot...that says a lot. The goal was getting rid of people, not especially repopulating, which is why only Ruiz really, of that bunch, has had staying power. At least the Soto deal got them C.J. Abrams and James Wood, the peak of their core, as well as MacKenzie Gore, which got them Abimelec Ortiz, who's been really nice as a late call-up [plus 4 other guys that could be winners]. So the fact that this one 2022 deal was arguably so much more productive than like 8 2021 deals...it's telling. 

The current, burgeoning regime is the result of calculated development. Abrams, Wood, Daylen Lile, Nasim Nunez, Cade Cavalli, Andrew Alvarez and, ultimately, Keibert Ruiz have finally given this team an organizational identity after years of searching for one. Thus extending Cavalli is a fantastic idea, as after that injury-logged early era if he'd only gotten like 2 seasons to pitch for this team, it'd have been tragic. I also think Ortiz, Harry Ford and Yohandy Morales all have promise, and could all keep moving this already bombastic offense forward. I also think Jorbit Vivas is a really nifty in-between piece that could keep the team depth strong in the coming years. 

The Nats will hopefully be better next year, or at least be able to leg it out for longer. And then who knows what we'll be saying about their rebuilding period.

Coming Tomorrow- Talk about how a second half can radically change the perception of an entire season, even if it's played for a last place Royals team.

Lukes Like We Didn't Make It

 

Here's a fun statistic about the Blue Jays' 2026 season. In the trade for Kevin Gausman, the Jays received Brett Bateman, who moved right into center field, hit .333 in 34 games, with 11 RBIs, an .828 OPS, and 46 hits. He currently has a 1.7 WAR in that time. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who played 138 games this year and had a full year in the new contract to keep hitting in Toronto after the World Series run, is hitting .262 with 9 home runs, 56 RBIs and a .694 OPS. 

You should not be able to get a guy who's stuck in Iowa, put him on your team for 2 months and get him to start playing better than Vlad Jr. has all season. That's not the point of any of this. The point is the Vlad to drag the sled, not for Brett Bateman to go from Iowa to dragging the sled while Vlad just rides in it. That's not how you win championships. 

Despite that late rally and the continued gestation in the playoff picture, this was a big shrug of a follow-up from the 'team of uncommon men' in Toronto, mostly because most of the uncommon men didn't really show up. Addison Barger was hurt all year, Myles Straw backpedaled and is once again a subpar defensive sub, Davis Schneider's a .150 hitter, Tyler Heineman got dropped for a Buffalo catcher, Andres Gimenez bobbed around the replacement level, Ernie Clement stopped hitting after the ASG, and...I mean, Nathan Lukes is still hitting. He's 31 and down from the peak, but he's hitting .274 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs in 117 games. This is still a bench tier performance being made to start but he's doing a lot better than most of the actual Jays starters are. At the very least, this team has Kazuma Okamoto, hitting 33 homers and 88 RBIs and doing a great deal of the work for the lineup despite hitting .235, and this team has a second half Alejandro Kirk performance [.280, 10 homers, 41 RBIs and a .777 OPs in 72 games] that made the first half injury sort of worth it. But the depth and variety of 2025 was gone this year. No hiding that. Not with Josh Smith, not with Charles McAdoo, not with anything. 

I am intrigued how this team will rebound next year, because they will have Trey Yesavage healthy again, they'll have Jose Berrios healthy again, they'll have a healthy Spencer Arrighetti, they'll possibly have Bowden Francis back, they could theoretically stretch out Ricky Tiedemann, and of course they'll have Cease and Soriano. That's already firmer ground, and more depth, than the 'we're out of options but at least we have 41-year-old Max Scherzer every fifth day' thing from this year. If they can build a better lineup behind that, of people who actually rise to the occasion, they can avoid the anticlimax of this season. If not...Vlad signing back here might be one of the missed opportunities of this era of the game.

Coming Tonight: Five years ago, he came to Washington as they rebuilt. Now they're rebuilding again...and he's kinda still here.

Skeleton Crew

 

On March 25th of this year, in San Francisco, the San Francisco Giants hosted the New York Yankees to begin the regular season. It was a time of promise, though it was clear that the Giants probably weren't going to compete much this year, and the Yanks' battery of them would soon confirm this [a 7-0 win]. It's very weird to look back at this game because...only two of the Opening Day starting nine are still active on this team by the end of the season. 

It's literally just Logan Webb and Jung Hoo Lee. Everyone else is either playing elsewhere [Luis Arraez, Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey], or hurt [Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt, Harrison Bader]. It's down to just Jung Hoo Lee in this lineup, and just Webb and Landon Roupp in this rotation. And everyone else is...either a roster-hanger-onner just taking advantage of the playing time or an absolute scrub filling a space. That's where we are with the Giants in September. They're not gonna finish with the worst record in baseball, but they may finish as the worst team left. Because what team has a chance with an active roster like this?

Above replacement level, all the team has left right now is Lee, the rookies Drew Gilbert and Bryce Eldridge, and newcomer Jonah Cox, a minor league favorite who was thrust into the centerfield role and has become an unsung hero, hitting .294 with 13 RBIs and 13 steals in 53 games. Cox is a sneaky little contact guy who just gets by you, and has been very helpful as the team's lost more and more strength. I think Cox probably will have a role in the team going forward, and a Gilbert-Cox-Lee outfield doesn't seem like the worst idea ever. 

It's the other fill-ins who are making things really dire, cause nothing else is too exciting. Drew Cavanaugh's the starting catcher, he's a .235 hitter with no real pop. Christian Koss is starting at first, he's not as good as he was last year. Turner Hill's been getting starts, he's got slightly more pop but he's not well rounded. Osleivis Basabe's getting playing time and for all the smoke around him in the minor's he's giving nothing. Nate Furman, Grant McCray and Scott Bandura are all getting shots. It really does feel like a triple-A lineup. I can't think of anybody in the league that could be outhit by this bunch. 

At least pitching-wise they've got Anthony Molina and Cesar Perdomo up and working. Molina's been surprisingly nice in a starting role, he's 3-1 with a 3.91 ERA with 23 Ks in 5 appearances. Perdomo had an excellent first start and has come down to earth a bit. Webb and Roupp have been kinda shaky lately [and Webb is officially hurt again], so it's nice that the kids are helping out. The bullpen isn't terrific though, as most of THEM are hurt too. So, again, it's whoever's available. And that's not very fun.

Really not much else for the Giants to do at this point but finish things up. I feel bad that the injuries screwed them up so much, because they could have bobbed along, but the bottom really fell out. Onto 2027. Hopefully.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many in 2025, one of a small few in 2026, keeping the dream alive in Toronto.

99 to Beat

 

Here's where we're at with the A's, which I wasn't thinking would be a factor this year. There's 9 games left. The A's have 92 losses. If they go 2-7, which is honestly a doable enough venture for this team, they can avoid finishing this season as a 100-loss team [in a season where the closest thing to a 100-win team we have now needs to go 5-4 to get to that mark]. The A's lost 100 games in 2022 and 2023, including that pathetic 2023 season where they only won 50 games. This season, they were without their biggest stars for the majority of the year, and as such they're in danger of being a 100-loss team. I think they have what it takes to avoid that, but...these being the 2026 A's, you can't be sure.

Earlier today, the A's got completely annihilated by the Rays in Tampa. You'd think this would be a decent homecoming for Jeffrey Springs, but the former Ray was completely beaten down, giving up 6 runs in 3.1 innings. Springs very clearly has never recovered from the injury wear and tear he's gained since his breakout run in Tampa, and, along with Luis Severino, continues to be a concerning free agency decision from this administration. The only run the A's could muster was a solo shot from Lawrence Butler, who again has caught steam late but not nearly as crucially as usual. Everything else was a ton of Rays runs that could not be contained.

Aside from Springs, the A's rotation right now is an array of 'I guess he'll do'. Jacob Lopez is the last actual competent starter standing, and even he's got a 5 ERA, despite 6 wins and 107 Ks. In the absence of J.T. Ginn, Gage Jump and Luis Severino, guys like Jack Perkins and Brady Basso are getting thrown out there to essentially do long relief to start games, and it isn't really working. The season's already a wash, so I get the reluctance to actually make a commanding decision, but even a couple years ago the A's had Joe Boyle and Joey Estes to try in September. Now, neither of them were long standing options, but they worked then. What the hell do the A's have now? Basically nothing. 

I guess the lineup is trying its best. It's down to bench guys like Donovan Walton and Alika Williams to do the hard work since Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom and Rooker are all hurt. Langeliers is back but his production pace has gone way down. Same with Gelof's, though at least this is a fuller, more confident season from the guy whose job was in jeopardy going into the season. Butler's last two months have at least given his stats a bit more mustard, he now has 17 homers and 59 RBIs, that's not bad. The general direction of this team as it stands might be best described as 'limp', but they keep trying.

To start next week, the Angels will be in town, so that'll be fun. Two teams trying to avoid losing 100 games squaring off in a minor league stadium. That should get a full house. It deserves one.

Coming Tomorrow- In a similarly vacant lineup, a rookie favorite tries to make the most of his extended playing time. 

Put the Tarps Back On

 

It's the sort of thing where you forget that at one point, the Cardinals were 10 games over .500, electric and commanding the fanbase. The 'tarps off' thing was this year. Tons of fans taking off their shirts in outfield seats and beckoning on walk-offs and rallies. That was this season. It feels like it was years ago, because the Cardinals haven't really been too electric in the second half. Maybe a decent week or two in late July and early August, but they evened out once it became clear how perfunctory the rotation was. 

Which is why it feels like such a shame that Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, both of whom have 100+ RBIs, didn't lead this team further. Burleson's been good as a contact bat before, but this was a new high, with a .285 average, an .824 OPS, 23 homers and 111 RBIs, which still leads the league. Walker's home run totals fell a bit after the derby, but he still has 28, 100 RBIs and 160 hits. This was, at long last, a breakout season for Jordan Walker, after so many years where he could have done something and didn't seem to want to. And beyond that, it was the arrival of J.J. Wetherholt, who's excellent at 2nd and has a contact bat that's just picking up steam. I think that core gets them to the playoffs. 

And it shouldn't discount Nathan Church, who made the team as an also-ran and eventually usurped Victor Scott as the starting center fielder. Church is a great contact guy, he's got 50 RBIs and 10 homers, and he's handy in a pinch. Considering that the cavalcade of homegrown Cardinals outfielders has run its course [Nootbaar's done, Carlson and Bader and O'Neill and Edman are all elsewhere], Church is a nice trade-off, an unsung bench guy who can be the hero when he needs to be. Not sure what legs he has on this roster, or if he can do it again next year, but he did what he needed to this year and definitely has a place.

What excites me is the fact that the Cardinals now feel the need to move beyond this year's rotation mediocrity, where Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante were really all they had. Quinn Matthews is up, and through 7 starts he has a 3.62 ERA, 26 Ks and a 0.7 WAR, which already puts him on the team leaderboard. Matthews is expected to be a nice rotation piece, and I like the sound of that. Both Brycen Mautz and Cooper Hjerpe are fundamentally starters, and are only working relief spots because there isn't room. I think there should be room. Those two have been excellent in minor league play and need to be stretched out. Similarly, despite the 37 saves, we might need to see if anyone other than Riley O'Brien can close games next year. The blows are adding up. 

The Cardinals are good enough, and have been good enough, that they're never really expected to land in last, and next year could be the year where their 'legit' stretch lasts more than a month or so. I just feel like once it gets going we're gonna forget this period where the Cardinals didn't really compete. I've been kind of enjoying this honestly, not to really bag on the team or anything. They made like 4 straight NLCSs and now it's just been nice not worrying about that all the time. But perhaps soon...

Coming Tonight: With all the injuries and struggles in the A's rotation, he's pretty much all they've got left right now.

Five Enter, One Remains

 

I really do think the Tigers' rotation press conference prior to the season has the same energy as Aaron Rodgers sprinting out carrying the American flag and immediately tearing his achilles. The moment looks grand, the image looks cinematic, and then the reality hits. Seeing Justin Verlander, Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize standing together, going 'we're gonna be the Tigers' rotation this year', looks nice, and sounds nice. But then the rubber hits the road and you realize just how far the image was from how things really work. 

Let's go over how that rotation panned out. Tarik Skubal had great numbers, was traded to the Dodgers and is looking to compete like he never has before. Casey Mize did well enough despite an injury, got traded to the Padres and is still trying to regain his leverage. Jack Flaherty's season stunk of fatigue, and he's missed time since July recovering. Justin Verlander pitched 1 inning, gave up 5 earned runs, complained of discomfort and has been hurt ever since. The goal is to get him back for one last start in Detroit, which is more of a tribute measure than anything given the season's lost at this point, but considering how he held up in San Francisco last year, everyone was expecting so much more.

So the only person left from that press conference in March who's still on this team is Framber Valdez. And he's decided to deliver his most mediocre season to date, after a legendary run with Houston. He's got a 4 ERA, a 10-10 record, 121 Ks and a 1.363 WHIP. Without the Astros' offense behind him, he has been leveled. He still goes deep into games but the runs have piled up, and the spark has been diluted. Every so often you will get a classic Valdez quality start, but this was not the ideal first year for this contract.

The good news is that a halfway decent starting rotation sprouted out from where the other four spots lay vacant. Keider Montero and Troy Melton have had star making performances this year, with 8 and 9 wins apiece, ERAs in the mid-3s and 2.50 range, and the dominance that, ideally, Skubal and Mize would have kept giving. Jackson Jobe's healthy again, and he's got a 3.89 ERA and 34 Ks in 34 innings. Hopefully he'll be a lot stronger next year. Drew Anderson has been starting recently, and he's honestly not bad, with a 2.36 ERA and 43 Ks in 10 starts. Maybe not as immediately lauded as other returns from the eastern hemisphere this year [mostly thinking of Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin], but he's played a strong role in this rotation legging things out.

Beyond that, the Tigers evened out as a lower-tier team this year without a comfy rotation behind them, and without a really strong division of contact hitters. You're at least seeing Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Max Clark and Riley Greene cementing themselves for the next stage, and all four of those guys did what they needed to this year. If a decent enough team can form around them and lead to less dissonance, and less waiting for 5 different people to start hitting, then the Tigers can muddle out of the basement. If not...the 2024 run may have been a fluke after all.

Coming Tomorrow- An under-the-radar, contact-friendly outfielder on a team where two different guys have over 100 RBIs.

Marlin of Error

 

It's as simple as this: the Marlins, at one point, had a shot of crashing the postseason. Then they kept losing games and literally every other marginal competitor passed them. The Pirates and Cardinals probably aren't making the playoffs either, but they passed them. So now the Marlins are 8-5 in September, back below .500, nothing else to do this season really but be thankful they weren't a last place team. 

I can say with certainty that we know more about this team than we did before the season began. There were a lot of beginnings of threads last season that we weren't sure were gonna lead to anything in 2026, but Max Meyer, Javier Sanoja, Heriberto Hernandez, Tyler Phillips, Janson Junk and Jakob Marsee all have crucial roles on this team as it evolves. Sanoja was once just a decent enough super-ute who hit well only against the Phils. Now he's the everyday 3rd baseman, is a .300 hitter and has 63 RBIs, which isn't bad at all. Last year, Heriberto Hernandez was an okay hitter and a defensive liability, but now he's a much better power hitter, looking at the team's sole 25-homer year, and is better in left. Max Meyer, despite finishing with only half a season's worth of innings, proved he could carry the big games, and Sandy Alcantara proved he wasn't washed up. The biggest development was directing Tyler Phillips back towards a starting role, where he actually did a pretty decent job, with a 4.26 ERA, 5 wins and 63 Ks in 82 innings. I think he might be a good starting option going forward, as will Janson Junk, who had a 4.50 ERA in 111 innings. 

Now...will Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards continue to be the anchors? There I'm not sure. Lopez had an incredible season this year, with a 5.8 ERA, a league-leading 180 hits, a .300 average and 69 RBIs, plus 30 steals to boot. He excelled at nearly every facet of the game, and at 27 it could either be his apex season or the start of a strong run. I don't know if he's going to be THE guy for this team, but he's definitely helped exponentially, and some more seasons of this caliber would be the next step. Edwards is still a good piece but the fact that the Rays knew to give him up tells you he may never be THE guy. Maybe Marsee will do more heavy lifting next year, even if his second half was way better than his first. I think the real issue is whether or not Kyle Stowers is ever gonna touch his 2025 season [itself injury-shortened]. That's kind of why the Orioles gave up, they saw the floor and not the ceiling. I think if the Marlins are at all concerned they'll make a move this offseason but I think he's a bounce-back candidate, just like I think Owen Caissie just needs to grow into things.

The thing that will make me feel a lot better about the long term success of this team is proof of a working rotation model. Because ideally, if given the year, the combination of Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk and Tyler Phillips may not be enough to get things going. Alcantara's probably leaving in free agency, that's fine I guess. I'd love if there was another young starting option. It was supposed to be Robby Snelling, that did not pan out. There's gotta be somebody immediately next. Is it Karson Milbrandt after he figures out triple-A? Or Thomas White once he can stay healthy? One of those guys, or both, could swap in and help things greatly. Maybe a cheap free agent, someone who can eat innings? There's gotta be somebody. 

The Marlins are closer to competing than you might expect. They just need to build on this season and not run from what worked.

Coming Tonight: This was his first season for a team that didn't have a probable shot at the postseason. It wasn't that great.

You Two Again

 

The AL playoff race, despite the last two or so spots being in question, is solidified bracket-wise. We know the Rays have a bye, and we know the likely winner of the AL Central will have a bye, probably the White Sox. And we know that the winner of the AL West will play the third wild card team, which means right now that it'll be Astros-Guardians, unless the Guardians win the division, then it'll be Astros-White Sox, unless the Astros somehow get the other bye, in which case it'll be Guardians-White Sox again. Far more boring. Let's keep the Astros from getting a bye, they don't really deserve one.

All that said, what's been made very clear, despite the inefficiency of the other two divisions' leaders, is that the Yankees and Red Sox not only have the first two wild card spots essentially locked up, but they will be playing each other. At this rate, no amount of shitting the bed will bring the Guardians, or even the Blue Jays, Rangers or Orioles, any closer to the AL East scrum. So there we are again. Second year in a row, Yanks-Sox first round of the playoffs, when logically it could be an ALDS matchup or an ALCS matchup.

That's how out of whack the AL is. The Red Sox are the third best team in the AL East, and they're not favored to advance, and they're still better than all the other AL teams. Which means...if they wanted to, and they absolutely will not do this...but they could throw the last two weeks of the season. Lose their last few games. Win the occasional one to stay on pace. And ensure someone else gets that 2 seed. Then, they piledrive the Astros, ensuring I don't have to watch a Sox-Stros ALCS this year, and then get a top seeded team and make their way up through there. I do get that the fun of it is watching someone like the Astros, Guardians or White Sox build momentum and become a deep playoff team, but I really don't want to see the Astros do that again. It's happened enough times. The Rangers technically could lap them but...do you see the Rangers doing that this year? I'd love to, but they've been in 'keel over and die' formation for 2 months now. 

Anyway. The Red Sox, provided they don't tank for a better seeding, will have to play the Yankees in the playoffs, and it will be close. Right now, even if the momentum has slowed slightly, the Sox still have a lot going for them. Payton Tolle has only gotten stronger, with an immaculate inning denoting his latest knockout start, aside from his 3 ERA and 166 Ks. Sonny Gray once again looks like a viable postseason starter, with 17 wins; so does Ranger Suarez, with a 3.33 ERA and 130 Ks. Aroldis Chapman's once again a closing success, and Garrett Withlock is once again one of the most effective relief specialists in the game. Guys like IKF, Mickey Gasper, Nick Sogard and Jahmai Jones are providing small roles and big moments. You're even seeing Trevor Story slowly get things rolling once again as the everyday shortstop.

My main problem with this team right now is the lack of a central key piece. You'd think it'd be Willson Contreras right now, but that attitude problem is beginning to slow him down. Yes, 26 homers, 76 RBIs, all well and good, but he's been suspended this year, he was acting up in Triple-A, and who knows what'll be next. Jarren Duran is a similar story, because this would be a terrific time for him to get something going, but he's still not hitting for average, he keeps striking out, and he feels like he's regressed, even after last year. 20 homers and 69 RBIs are fine, but he's not THE guy right now, in the same way that Ben Rice or Aaron Judge can be the Yanks, or Junior Caminero can be the Rays. The closest approximation is Wilyer Abreu, but is he the anchor or is he just having a good season? Roman Anthony, Adley Rutschman, Trevor Story and Jarren Duran are all in position to really carry the team and none of them are. 

October would be a good time to start. Or sooner. I'm content with the fact that this could be the Sox team that outruns the Yankees, because on paper I don't see it, and those are always the teams that do it. We're better, they're sneakier. We're built better but they're more clutch. I've got two more weeks to come to terms with it, then there'll be another 3 days of discourse, and then we'll do the series and I'll just hope it doesn't hurt too much.

Coming Tomorrow- He plays most positions, and even pitches, but this year he's finally found a starting spot and might be through with his super utility days.

How Dare You Want More

 

I think it is a very big deal that the Padres, despite the droughts in production or pitching luck or anything, were able to persist in the postseason conversation this year. They were never going to be a first place team, because the Dodgers were always going to be better. They were never a lock for 2nd because of the D-Backs. It took Fernando Tatis a while to start hitting home runs and now he's got 21. It's a testament to the persistence of this team that they stayed in it, to the point where they're very much in the race for that last wild card spot, despite so much of it just not working.

Like...there's a lot of half-seasons that were good, but not a lot of full campaigns were. Other than Ty France, Michael King, Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon, everybody either crapped out after the first half or didn't start til the second. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Walker Buehler and Luis Campusano are finishing with halfway decent seasons, and it's doing a lot to erase their struggles from earlier on. Machado is hitting .221 now, but was hitting .190 for most of the first half. If he didn't also have 27 homers and 82 RBIs, seasonably great numbers for the future Hall of Famer, he'd get a lot more criticism. Same with Merrill, whose 2nd half has erased any doubts people had about his trajectory. Merrill hit 25 homers and 82 RBIs, plus 26 stolen bases. If the Padres make the postseason, Merrill might be the most dangerous part of the team. 

I also think the bullpen has built on 2025, which is weird to say about a team that had 4 relievers make the all-star team. Miller's elite, but we knew that. Beyond that, Adrian Morejon's having another fantastic year as a setup man/relief specialist, with 9 wins, 100 strikeouts, a 2.70 ERA and a 1.8 WAR. Morejon is commanding, consistent, and reliable, and since joining the bullpen full time in 2024, he's been one of the most crucial pieces of these Padres teams. Without Jason Adam or Robert Suarez this year, he needed to step up, and he very much did. Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez and Wandy Peralta have provided stability behind him.

There's gonna be some worry about how the rotation holds up, because Randy Vasquez is very streaky, Walker Buehler's not as good as he was in 2019, and Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have struggled since the deadline, but...Nick Pivetta just came back and he's been very strong, being part of two wins, and only allowing 2 runs. In a postseason scenario, it would be Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Robbie Ray, and that's honestly a pretty nice rotation. If Ray can firm up in the postseason, which seems likely, they could be a match for whoever they go against [probably Atlanta at this rate].

This only happens if they stay ahead of the Diamondbacks, which I honestly think is possible, given how much momentum they've built up in the past few weeks. They're 2.5 games up as the D-Backs are imploding, have the Rockies and Marlins all week, and hopefully by the time the Padres have to play their division rivals again to finish off the season, they'll have enough of a cushion to secure that postseason spot. I don't know how far they'll get, but...considering I didn't expect them to get this far, who knows.

Coming Tonight: He didn't have a very good season, as the centerpiece of a team needing a real homegrown hero. Luckily the team didn't need him to be great, they just needed him to be there. 

Woo Cares?

 

I don't understand it. I've been trying to understand it all year. With no avail. How a team like the Mariners, with as much talent as they had, could just refuse to win week after week. The Astros are likely winning the division, essentially unopposed, and it's happening not because the Astros were good, but because the Mariners were worse. I know I get shit for saying that, but sometimes a division win happens because someone loses harder than someone else wins. And that's the AL West. Like three teams losing extremely hard and one team winning by not losing as much. It's infuriating, but it works.

It sucks especially for someone like Bryan Woo, who is, in fact, trying. His second-to-last start against the A's was a 1-hit, 8-inning affair with 9 Ks. His last start against the A's wasn't too bad either, giving up 3 hits and a run but striking out 5 in 6 innings. He's just hitting his stride, and getting better as he goes along, getting over some of the fatigue that got his ERA to 4 in the first place. And he's probably not gonna be pitching in the postseason. On a better year this would be a ramp up. Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller would be ramping up rather than just rallying pretty much. 

And it does really feel like a lot of the recent Mariners goings-on are just a late rally before a demise. Kade Anderson's becoming a great MLB option, with a 4.30 ERA in 4 starts. Randy Arozarena got to 25 homers again, and is making his free agency case look quite good. J.P. Crawford is suddenly springing to life, hitting .333 this month with 6 RBIs in 12 games. Raleigh and Naylor are hitting after a year of not hitting. Michael Arroyo also seems to be a savvy choice at 2nd, though I'm not sure where he fits into the long term plan if Emerson and Donovan are expected to be back next year. But you look back and you realize that Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Andres Munoz and Josh Naylor all gave very okay performances in a year where they were expected to do great things. Randy Arozarena and Cole Young carried this team, and they weren't supposed to. As good of a pitching year as this was, the lowest ERA in the rotation was Emerson Hancock's 3.57 [and he was throwing hurt for the last month or so], and everyone else, even Gilbert and Kirby and Woo, were in the 4 zone. Even the Astros have guys with ERAs lower than 3.50 right now. 

It's frustrating, because this team nearly made a World Series this year, and now they're 10 games under .500 with no shot at the playoffs. People will find a way to blame the people that didn't have anything to do with it. It wasn't Dan Wilson, it wasn't the GM, everybody really tried. But not having Raleigh at 100% this year, and having 3 months of very mediocre Julio Rodriguez stats, did not help. Next year needs to be better, or else they're gonna waste this regime's highest heights. 

Coming Tomorrow- He vetoed a trade to New York, and he seemed to know he'd do just fine staying where it was. 

Too Late for a Late Swell?

 

Out of nowhere today came the news that the Pirates are suddenly at .500 for the first time since midseason, and went 4 for 6 against the Chicago teams this week. There's two weeks left in the regular season, and the Pirates are 6 games back from the wild card spot, but...I dunno, I guess it's never too late.

What's helped has been the returns of several very crucial pieces of this team. Konnor Griffin just got activated, and his rookie year continues, though it'll only be a 300 at-bat year at this rate. Still had 22 steals, 27 RBIs, a .262 average, and hit his stride in May and June [right before the injury]. I think he's still kinda ramping back up to where he was, but he's welcome. Same with Ryan O'Hearn, who was hurt for 2 months and is now trying to make up for lost time. He's gonna finish the season, I'm assuming, with 20+ homers and 75+ RBIs, which is pretty good [only Brandon Lowe has more RBIs], and he'll definitely be around next year for more damage. And now Oneil Cruz is back and winding back up, with 18 homers, 63 RBIs, 27 stolen bases and a .273 average, probably the most outwardly lethal season we've gotten from Cruz, which makes it all the more insulting that it was a small sample size again. But all of those pieces are back, and doing their best for the late push.

Yet, concerningly, they seem to have traded off with some other guys who are just now ending their seasons. Braxton Ashcraft got hurt last week and is out for the year, after providing the Pirates' best pitching performance with a 3.65 ERA, 14 wins and 173 strikeouts. The team also just lost star rookie Esmerlyn Valdez, who was able to hit 17 homers and 47 RBIs in 72 games, always a very nice aspect. They also lost Kirby Yates after a pretty strong couple weeks in Pittsburgh. And while Paul Skenes isn't technically injured, it's clear this is a down year due to fatigue from the very strong 2024 and 2025 campaigns, and the hope is he can bulldoze through and pop out way better next year [you know, the way pitchers used to]. The velocity is still not where it was last year, but Skenes still has 10 wins, a 3.78 ERA and 185 Ks. This is a very human year for Skenes, and people assumed he wouldn't have any of those. But here it is.

I applaud this Pirates team for actually getting somewhere with what seemed like the bricks for a competitor, even if it's probably not leading to a postseason spot. Nick Gonzales, Brandon Lowe, Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds, Esmerlyn Valdez, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, Rafael Flores and Jared Triolo all played like firm pieces of a great team. Them not getting there has to do with injury issues, Skenes's inconsistency and the fact that the Brewers and Cubs were just better teams. The hope is that the team doesn't need to get bailed out by a deadline push next year and can actively grow over time and emerge as an under-the-radar threat in a small market. A full year of Konnor Griffin could do that. He's only 20 and the sky seems so high for him.

Coming Tomorrow- A very strong starter for a team that is gonna kick itself for years for not making this season happen.

The Twins vs. Long Game Thinking

 

So by all accounts, the 2026 Minnesota Twins did not succeed. They surprised everybody by coasting in third for the majority of the year, had great performances and a nice array of strong players, DIDN'T SELL AT THE DEADLINE, and even bought, but...they're not a playoff team, and the road for them to get there was always gonna be relatively steep. The Iowa loss was the first crack in the armor, and they never recovered. So despite the buying, and the curation of a decent team, this isn't gonna lead to anything immediate.

Unless immediate success was not the point. They got some disposable pieces at the deadline but one of them, Dean Kremer, is not disposable and could stay with the team as a starting option going forward. Jeff Hoffman's also on a multi-year deal and is here til 2027. Joe Ryan and Josh Bell both have mutual options, and while Ryan will probably decline [unless he really feels they're on the precipice], Bell might stick around considering he can play DH everyday and seems to have gotten his power hitting groove back. Minter's leaving in free agency but maybe he comes back on a relatively cheap deal. The big pieces of this team are not leaving yet. Buxton, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Ober and Caratini are all sticking around. Maybe this team can still develop if enough of the core remains, and could compete sooner than later.

I'm not the only person realizing this. The Twins, in the last month, have called up a lot of really strong prospects that could play a huge role in the team as early as last year. Kaelen Culpepper is the highest-profile one, he's stepped in at SS and is hitting .286 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs in 29 games. Walker Jenkins just came up, and while he's not hitting all that well yet, he's 21 and capable of great things, so perhaps it takes more immediate MLB development. They just brought Emmanuel Rodriguez up yesterday and he responded with a towering homer immediately, so that's very good news. Plus both Mike Paredes and Mick Abel will be back next year in full force, and Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis will continue leveling up towards where they should be. 

That's the thing that the Twins realized before a lot of people this year: they're way closer than you might think. Going into this year, they were very much a 'what do they have left' team. They gave away a lot of big pieces, sold high last deadline and didn't seem committed to competing, but the young core was just building, and arguably did a ton more to inherit the team than the Tigers' and Royals' this summer. Maybe they vie for the division lead next year, and try and take down Cleveland in a waning period. It's sort of within reach.

If there is Spring Training next year, I might go and catch some games. My uncle lives near where the Twins play, and I always enjoy checking out the facility. I am wondering what the feel is gonna be. If there will be optimism, or if it'll be a stab in the dark like this year. That's a fascinating thought for 2027.

Coming Tonight: He was leading in the Rookie of the Year conversations. Then he got hurt. He's come back in time to try to help his team make one last, possibly futile, postseason push.

Arraez to the Occasion

 

Right now, the Phillies are entangled in yet another weekend series with the Braves, trying to creep up on their division lead and take control in the final weeks of the season. The Phillies are likely playoff-bound, but want the higher seed [probably 3 it's looking like] in order to play from the upper hand for at least some of the postseason. Now...I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but the Phils are much more successful in this regime as a wild card team than as a team that takes a first round bye. Last year, they tried to circumvent this by holding an open practice to stay hot in between the bye. It did not work. The Dodgers crushed them anyway. Meanwhile, each time they got in as a wild card team, they made it to an NLCS, and at one point even won.

So part of me's going 'well...why do you WANT the higher seed? You're better working from behind anyway.' Last year, their 'working from ahead' NLDS was against the Dodgers, who's whole thing is they're never behind anybody. You're better as a spoiler than an alpha, be the spoiler. Let the Braves take the division and get clobbered by the six seed. That means Phils-Cubs is looking more and more like a certainty, but the Phils have the better pitching by a mile.

The issue is getting everybody to hit, though, as it has been all season. Aside from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Phils offense has been very variable, without many sure-things. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are both having down seasons despite some decent enough production. Brandon Marsh WAS having a nice season, then seriously fell off after the ASG break and is now hitting .266. Justin Crawford is still not the guy that was advertised, and is still acclimating to the bigs, coming into some contact prowess. Realmuto's hitting, but nowhere near as consistently as he used to. Edmundo Sosa and Derek Hill are nice diversions but they're not the stars.

It's been nice to see Luis Arraez hitting .300 once again though, and he might go for another NL batting title. His numbers aren't as incredible as they were in San Francisco though, as statistically he's an average hitter and fielder again. What he remains is a difficult out, and he's got 41 hits and 16 RBIs in 35 games, pretty understandable for Arraez. He's also the exact kind of fun character for this club, as Harrison Bader was last year; there was a pitch during the Astros series that got so close to him that the 'AY YI YIIIII!' could be heard from the Linc. I think the Phils are still stronger with him, and I trust everyone else at their new positions more than I did at their old ones [Bohm at 1st, Stott at 3rd, it all works out].

Some of the other worrying aspects of this team are coming alive as well. Aaron Nola's had some beautiful starts lately, and now has his ERA closer to 4.50, which is about where he should be considering. The bullpen's improved, and Tim Mayza, Alex McFarlane and Jonathan Bowlan are doing what they're supposed to. Edmundo's had more and more clutch moments in recent months, and has remained a really valuable part of this team. And yeah, with how integral Bryce Harper has been to this team, I don't see how anyone would think of him as truly past his peak.

I think the Phillies have a good team this year, and could do some damage next month. I also see them falling victim to the same pitfalls that usually do them in, but...if they're in as a wild card team and can keep the momentum going, they have more of a shot than if they have the bye.

Coming Tomorrow- Big hitter for a team that's, despite being kinda good, closing up shop pretty much.

Los Encounters

 

I honestly can't be too displeased with Carlos Rodon's Yankees run so far. He's missed time, but considering his White Sox years we knew this was a possibility. When he has been healthy, he's been spot-on, with a 3.88 ERA over 4 seasons, a 42-29 record, and 532 strikeouts. This year, through 13 starts, has been prime Rodon, with a 3.09 ERA, 5 wins, 70 Ks and a 1.2 WAR. Rodon is still the same deep-game, hard throwing strikeout artist he has been at his peak, and he's done exactly what we've needed him to do. What's wild has been seeing him adapt to a mid-rotation role in the wake of Schlittler and Fried's emergence. Now he's not even the #2 guy anymore, he's just one flamethrower in a rotation of several. But when your #4 guy is Carlos Rodon, you're still doing pretty well.

The Yankees' rotation is the reason why the Rays are getting scared about now. Schlittler-Cole-Fried-Rodon-Warren is as strong as we imagined it would be, and everyone complaining in February that we didn't do enough was forgetting how good the rotation would look at season's end. Ryan Weathers will be back in a long relief role, as will [I'm guessing] Clarke Schmidt, Cole and Rodon had their rehab periods and jumped right in, and Schlittler and Warren held out and did what was asked of them [for the most part]. And now teams are going into a postseason scenario where they have to face Cole, Schlittler or Fried, or Rodon. And that's not very pleasant, no matter who's behind you.

Here's the part that's reminding me of the 2025 Dodgers. The starting options are great, the starters who aren't getting postseason rotation jobs are gonna be great long relievers, there's already Blackburn, Headrick and Yarbrough who can do the extended stuff, and then they just have John Schreiber lying around acting like the Royals didn't just waive him. There is depth to this pitching staff that was not there last year, and that can go a long way. And that's not even mentioning David Bednar, who hit his stride midyear like he usually does, and has 32 saves and a 2.63 ERA. 

Really the only concern is the hitters not showing up, which has happened before and will happen again. Aaron Judge is still easing back into his usual standard of production, Ryan McMahon and Jasson Dominguez are still not as consistent as forecast, Goldschmidt and Lombard have cooled down, and even when healthy Jazz Chisholm will do well only when he wants to. The idea is that when this lineup is on, they're not a worry, but they have those periods where nothing's happening. And the idea is that could happen when playing an actual competitive team, like it did against the Jays last year, and like it typically does against the Astros in October. The idea is that now that Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia and Spencer Jones are united in their quest to pummel the hell out of the ball, hopefully the production will increase to the extent where we'll just roll through.

I'd love to see this Yankees team go deep this year. I think they have enough to contend. They just need to decide whether or not that's possible for them. There's gonna be some tough teams ahead, like the Red Sox, White Sox, Rays and possibly the Astros. They need to band together and prove their superiority to past teams that have made mistakes when the competition gets tougher. The potential is there, they just need to commit. 

Coming Tonight: The Phils picked him up for his impeccable contact ability, and they're not exactly dissatisfied so far.

One Of You Has To Grow Up

 

The 2023 World Series pit two emerging, well-built teams against each other, shocking the world and making for a surprisingly competitive and entertaining series, even if people would have preferred the Phillies or Astros or Dodgers making it. Sometimes, the best teams run into each other and the wild cards win out. Considering we've had two years of one or more of the best, most overpowered teams getting to the end, it was refreshing. So many young stars, like Corbin Carroll, Evan Carter, Josh Jung, Brandon Pfaadt, Gabriel Moreno, Ryne Nelson and Cody Bradford, took center stage and had huge moments on the road to fuller careers. 

It was a tease that has yet to pay off. Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rangers have made the playoffs since. The Rangers are under new management, rolling with Skip Schumaker, and the D-Backs, while they still have Torey Lovullo, are in the stage where the next missed opportunity could be his last. All of these young players got to a World Series immediately and haven't been to October at all to get another taste, including people like Carroll and Jacob deGrom who are still among the best in baseball.

I think of the people who came up in 2024, right after the World Series berth, thinking they'd be back there fairly soon. Wyatt Langford was called up to start the 2024 season, as the Rangers were defending champions, and he was thought to be the piece that would make them a perennial competitor. Now...that didn't exactly happen. Injuries happened, some rough Augusts happened, and the AL West would be won by teams like the Mariners and Astros going forward. It's not like Langford hasn't tried, but he's been just as injury-cursed as a lot of his teammates. This year he missed about two months, and despite 16 homers and 38 RBIs in 95 games, it's yet another small sampling from a guy who was supposed to be running this team by now. Langford has missed at least a month of play in all three of his prior seasons, and despite a 12.6 WAR in that period, thanks to both some terrific offensive numbers and excellent range in the outfield, he's been held back from really taking over this Rangers team. The faces of the team this year have been people like Jake Burger, Ezequiel Duran and Jacob Latz, very much supplemental guys, indicating that Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Jacob deGrom and Evan Carter have either been hurt or they've just been very okay. deGrom was looking very good against the Mariners yesterday but the bullpen sure spoiled that.

It's not even just Langford who's still 'getting there' when he should be there, Evan Carter's hitting .195 this year, and if it weren't for his defense he'd be a lot worse off. Kumar Rocket is 26 and he's still not worth the hype, he's got a 4.61 ERA, a 5-11 record and a lot of rough outings. Jack Leiter's in a similar boat, he's got a 5 ERA AND he's hurt. The idea was for deGrom, Eovaldi and Seager to slowly pass this onto the next generation, and it hasn't happened yet. We're still in this way-period. They're clearly almost good enough to chase people both for the division and the wild card spot, but they needed fuller years from the young guys.

The D-Backs might have the opposite problem. The youth is working, it's some of the veterans who are coming up short. Ketel Marte might be driven out of town on a rail after the season, which is depressing. Corbin Burnes just made his first start of the season, it lasted all of three innings and it basically gives off the idea that the really good stuff will be next year. Kelly and Gallen both essentially have lost seasons. There is more of a connection between stages of development than in Arlington arguably, but you get the sense that some front pieces are missing. Brandon Pfaadt shouldn't be in position to field the important starts, and while he's able to this year...it should be Gallen's job. 

At the very least, the D-Backs bullpen now has both Brandyn Garcia and Justin Martinez in it, and that's very helpful. Garcia's made a huge splash as a closing option this year, he has a 2.08 ERA in 51 games, with 53 Ks and 5 saves. Very dominant, very helpful, and forming a nice group with Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loiasiga, Juan Morillo and Justin Martinez. They seem to have figured out Dennis Santana's shit as well, somehow. That makes me feel better about a potential D-Backs postseason run, which they're still grappling with San Diego for. The bullpen's better, the bench is strong, and Carroll, Perdomo and Moreno are as strong as this team needs them to be. This is also a team that Nolan Arenado leads in homers, even at 35, so that's pretty cool too. 

Of the two teams, the D-Backs definitely have a better shot, but the Rangers could have a great week and sneak into a division spot. Any outcome is possible, and neither outcome is also possible. It's just nice that there's a chance the anticlimax of that World Series could finally be amounted to. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Yankees signed him after two good seasons, hoping for stability, consistency and firepower. They have gotten this. 

Boyd Where Available

 

So, to recap: the Cubs rotation was their greatest setback for the majority of the season, especially without Justin Steele or Cade Horton. So the Cubs got David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, and now it's, at the very least, better. Not enough to outweigh the Brewers, but better.

So here's where they're at. Shota Imanaga, since his rough May and June stretch ended, has basically been himself. In 60 games since July began, he's 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Not 2024 good but good. Matt Boyd, since he got back from the IL, is 6-3 in 14 games, with a 3.48 ERA and 55 Ks, returning somewhat to the dominance he had in 2025. David Peterson, since coming over from New York, is 4-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 54 Ks, a very average fifth man but thankfully they got enough to MAKE HIM the 5 man. Clay Holmes, in 6 games in Chicago, has a 3.51 ERA with 20 Ks, and was doing a lot better before that sixth start. And Kevin Gausman, despite a 5.31 ERA, has 4 wins and 44 Ks in 7 Cubs starts. Sort of like what Gausman was doing in Toronto this year, shakier accuracy but guys still can't always hit it. It's not pretty, and it's not perfect, but for a team that is missing two surefire young options [three if you count the still hurt Edward Cabrera], it's a lot better than before. 

The Cubs are not going to win the NL Central. They know that. Odds are they've got a date with Philly for wild card week, that's perfectly acceptable. I have been to a Phils-Cubs game already this year, and if that, and literally everything else I've seen, is any preview...the Cubs are gonna outhit the Phillies, no matter what happens. If they put Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, whoever up, even if the Phillies have to play the Cubs' best arms, I still think the Cubs have the advantage because they actually show up. It's not down to two or three guys, everybody pitches in. Carson Kelly's still a .260 hitter with 54 RBIs; J.T. Realmuto is not that this year. Michael Busch, even in a down year, is gonna have 75+ RBIs; Alec Bohm's year is even less pretty. Alex Bregman had a slow start, but look at him now, hitting .260 with 24 homers and 82 RBIs, a pretty standard Bregman year if I've ever seen one.

And I don't think any Phillies pitcher right now can accurately tame Pete Crow Armstrong, who's got a 9 WAR, 41 home runs, will pass 100 RBIs any day now, 36 steals [meaning 40/40 is on the table] and some of the most insane outfield catches you'll see anywhere. PCA has been building up to this season for so long, and it's every bit as good as advertised. He really is excelling at every facet of the game, and making it look so easy. I still think it's kinda unfair that he was the Cubs's only All-Star this year, as Seiya Suzuki would have deserved it as well [again, another terrific hitting year from him], but he will be getting an MVP at this rate, so it's not a huge loss.

The Cubs' hitting is paving the way for a long postseason run, but the pitching still threatens to hold them back, even if it is a lot better. They just need the right matchup, and a team with weaknesses they can exploit in a way that makes more of a difference than the Cubs' own weaknesses being exploited. It is possible, even if it will be very difficult, especially if they face the Brewers again. But with PCA playing this well, the sky's the limit.

Coming Tonight: His team was no-hitting the Mariners for a hot second until the bullpen blew it. Nevertheless, he's still fighting for the slightest chance of a playoff spot.