One More Dragon to Slay

 

2025 was a very nice year for me, a year where neither the Astros, the Cardinals or the Rays made the playoffs. Those three organizations infuriate me to no end for different reasons, and the Rays' insistence on not paying their players yet still building great teams make them particularly infuriating. What's the point of constructing a great team yet not having the incentive to cultivate it? George Harrison had a line about the record industry once, 'they don't care much for the music, they want the blood from a clone', and that really sums up the Rays mentality. To them it's more cost-efficient to trade a star for someone who could do the star's work and become big enough in three years to repeat the cycle. 

So this is another year of the Rays' usual approach, and so far, despite the usual lack of offseason effort [to a degree], the Rays are in 2nd place and surging after a strong week. Why should anything make sense?

As discussed, Yandy Diaz is the last 2020 Ray standing on this team. If you want to count McClanahan, I suppose you can, but he was active for the series and not the season so it's fuzzy. Hilariously there are more people on this team who were in the Dodgers' system in 2020 [Lux, Feduccia, Grove, Uceta, Pepiot, DeLuca], than there were people in the Rays system that year. THAT is dedication. You don't wind up with that many ex-Dodgers from that era accidentally, especially in comparison to your own organizational products. That's why it's been refreshing seeing actual Rays products like Caminero, Aranda and Simpson inherit the team in addition to all the traded guys. 

But Diaz is a rare case in that A.) the Rays have kept him around, and B.) he's actually performed consistently well in Tampa. I did not expect former Cleveland also-ran infielder Yandy Diaz to become the beloved power-hitting elder statesman corner infielder he is with the Rays, but it's still great to see. Diaz is 34, and potentially looking at his last season in Tampa [unless they decide to re-sign him [canned laughter]], and still a very crucial part of this lineup. So far he's hitting .333 with 21 RBIs, 5 homers and a .926 OPS. He's on track to even surpass some career highs from last year. Is a 30+ homer year out of the question, even if he just had his first 25 homer year last year? Not at all. Nothing makes sense in Tampa.

But, as it tends to happen, the things not making sense line up in a way that's advantageous for this team. Chandler Simpson's hitting .300 with 11 stolen bases, which is enough to distract you from his defense. Nick Martinez has a 1.70 ERA through his first 6 starts, which is strong enough to distract you from the fact that the 6 man from the Reds is now the top guy for the Rays. Shane McClanahan has a 3.10 ERA and 30 Ks, which is enough to distract you from his two lost seasons. Jonathan Aranda leads the league in RBIs right now with 27, which is enough to distract you from his .230 average. The lineup, while not always pretty, is producing runs, even if the bullpen is still a mess. And the Rays finish the week with a scorching display of wins...against teams like the Twins and Giants.

The Rays could still make something happen this year, but I see a week like this one and I still see the deep flaws and long term issues that prevent them from building this into a long term dynasty. Not that the owners care much, as usual.

Coming Tomorrow- Very weird to me that you could describe this guy as one of the veteran staples of the Nationals now. It doesn't feel like 5 years have gone by, that's for sure.

The Plan Backfires Hilariously [Again]

 

So. Let's go back to 2021. The Giants, for years, have been bogged down by older players and a youth movement that's refusing to happen. This is their last real chance to compete, as Buster Posey's lit a fire under them. Belt, Crawford, Posey, Longoria, Yaz, they develop a strong lineup where nearly no one's under 30. A whole core of veterans, flanked by a 27-year-old centerfielder who'd never have another healthy season, with a bench of 30somethings, a rotation of thirtysomethings, and one rogue young kid named Logan Webb burning it down as well. They win over 100 games and are a monolith heading into the playoffs.

Now...this, and this may shock you, but this was not sustainable.

So, alright. Managers come and go, approaches change, Posey takes over, they develop a new young team, bring up people like Drew Gilbert and Hayden Birdsong and Grant McCray and Carson Whisenhunt. People who can take over. And they also get a ton of great contracted players, they trade for Rafael Devers, they actually build something. And after all of that...we have a last place Giants team where the 30somethings are doing all the work. AFTER ALL OF THAT, nothing's changed.

I'm just mystified by the Rafael Devers factor. Because you get this guy who can hit for power like nobody else, and was even doing so in Boston while feuding with the team, and for whatever reason he can't get it together. He's hitting .211 with 2 homers and 12 RBIs after a month. He had a cold start last year, but by the end of April he was hitting em out with no issue. What's going on here? The only person who's struck out more than Devers is Willy Adames, who's actually playing close to well, at least defensively. But all these young, foundational guys, like Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, Jung Hoo Lee, Drew Gilbert, Landon Roupp...they're doing either very okay or almost good. Roupp is 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA, he gives up a few more runs than necessary, but he's basically good. Ramos is okay, Gilbert still hasn't clicked in the majors, Lee is fine but unspectacular, Bailey still can't hit. Even Logan Webb is struggling this season, which I attribute to the fatigue of carrying the team the last five years. 

And so the team's coming down to guys like Matt Chapman, Luis Arraez, Robbie Ray, guys who are 29 to 30, or more, and verging on leaving their peak. Chapman's doing his thing, he only has to hit so well but he's so good at third that you forget. Quietly he might be one of the best third basemen of his era, but nobody really wants to admit it. Arraez not only is hitting .300 again but he's actually a lot better defensively this year, mostly because he's frequenting 2nd rather than 1st. Ray, despite having 4 losses, has a 2.60 ERA and looks like his old self. It's just frustrating that the younger guys are sort of following in line behind them rather than inheriting the team.

Until that happens, you're gonna get irrelevant, last-place Giants teams like this. There's honestly some good stuff to speak of here, which is more than I can say from some other last place teams, but despite all the forethought we've ended up back where we started, which has to be frustrated. And there's a way out, but it's not gonna happen all at once.

Coming Tonight: The last 2020 Rays member still standing in Tampa. Unsurprisingly he's playing really well right now.

Suddenly Big Amish

 

Is it funny to anyone else that a guy from Amish Country is currently leading the league in walks?

If there was a baseball stat involving a wagon, he'd probably lead the league in that too. Regardless, Lancaster native Nick Kurtz, lovingly referred to as the Big Amish, has continued his run as an offensive powerhouse for the A's. If you walk him, it's very likely one of the A's other power hitters [Rooker, Langeliers, Soderstrom] will get him home. If you don't, there's also a chance he could go yard. The big man currently has 5 home runs and 15 RBIs, and he might have had more if it weren't for that walk streak, which keeps on going. He's had 33 so far this season, which is Soto/Bonds levels. People have caught onto just how volatile this guy can be at the plate, and they're trying to avoid it as much as possible. For a 23 year old with one season under his belt, that speaks volumes.

Also, um...can we talk about the fact that Nick Kurtz and the A's are in first place right now? Seriously. The nomadic Sacramento A's have the best record in the AL West, better than Seattle or Houston. Which is what happens when you build a great young lineup and sign the majority of them to contracts.

And you can just see this team evolving as well, even from 1st. Shea Langeliers is now a .300 hitter in addition to a home run machine. He leads this team in hits! Carlos Cortes has gone from a bench novelty to an everyday outfield hit machine, batting .391 in 69 at-bats. Jacob Wilson's contact stuff, though not as three-dimensional as last year, is still very appreciated. Tyler Soderstrom is leading the team in RBIs without needing to resort to the long ball as much. And even Jeff McNeil can be a positive contributor here, hitting .286. The momentum this team has right now has made McNeil, Aaron Civale and J.T. Ginn pivotal figures in a year where I figured they'd be also-rans.

I mean, the rotation in general is still hard to figure out, because I'm not really confident about any of them. Jeffrey Springs looks good right now but he could get hurt again at any second. Same with Luis Severino, K's be damned. I thought that last year meant homegrown guys like Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales were gonna inherit the rotation and charge forward, but evidently that's not happening yet. It's frustrating, because any time there's an opportunity for someone like Morales or Joey Estes or Gunnar Hoglund to make a name for themselves, it just doesn't happen. And we're back to the veteran contract guys doing all the work. Imagine if the Brewers last year had Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff do all the work while Chad Patrick, Miz and Logan Henderson all shirked the responsibility. That's what this is like.

But...they're still in first place, because the rotation's at least durable enough, despite it being made up of mostly replacement level guys. So something's gotta be working.

I want this team to advance and remain a major player in this division, but some of these baby teeth are gonna need to fall out soon. This team needs a rookie pitcher to spice things up, and we need Butler, Rooker and Muncy to start hitting. This is a very nice start, but at any point the Rangers or Mariners could sweep in and make the division theirs. The A's just need to make a statement and fend all those guys off with their own might. I dunno if it can happen yet.

Coming Tonight: A former Athletic, ironically, still manning the corner further towards the water.

More Than Skenes [For Once]

 

The bad news is the Pirates are in last place after losing 5 straight. The good news is that they're a last place team that's at .500, with the same record as the Tigers and Guardians. And the even better news is that they still have Paul Skenes.

The idea that Skenes would someday headline a halfway decent Pirates team was always possible, if unlikely, but this is the best they've looked in years, and Skenes is very much at the forefront. Though the quest for a sub-2 ERA for the third season in a row will be harder than usual thanks to that damn Mets start, he's still got a 3.18 ERA, a 4-2 record and 39 strikeouts. The domination that Skenes has always been capable of has continued, even through a rocky start. I do worry this will be a little closer to normal than usual for Skenes, as he's giving up more homers than expected, and just last night he gave up one to J.J. Wetherholt. But there's no true warning signs, and he's not having much trouble getting through games. 

The most telling part of the improved climate of this team is that it's not on Skenes as much as last year to carry the team. Keller and Ashcraft are strong starting options around him that can also carry the weight. Keller always looks like he's gonna worry people but he's got things worked out at last, and has a 3.18 ERA through 6 starts. Ashcraft has 39 Ks in 6 starts, as many as Skenes in 7, so that's pretty cool. Carmen Mlodzinski's innings-eating has parlayed into a fine starting spot. And the bullpen is better than it's been in a while, with Gregory Soto, Yohan Ramirez, Mason Montgomery, Isaac Mattson and Dennis Santana working on excellent seasons. 

And then suddenly, out of nowhere, we finally have a Pirates team that can hit. Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn and Bryan Reynolds are all optimally raising the quality of the power hitting game. Cruz's is a lot more lopsided because he's still making mistakes in center, but those 9 homers say a lot. Lowe has been really fantastic in Pittsburgh, that's exactly why they dealt for him. O'Hearn is working as a corner infield/OF/DH bat. And Reynolds is hitting again. After a really weak 2025, Bryan Reynolds is hitting .246 with 19 RBIs and 3 homers, which is an improvement. Konnor Griffin's slowly warming up as well, and hopefully by midyear he's more comfortable in the bigs.

It's a Pirates team that's verging on multifaceted, with a lot of really interesting angles and upsides. I really do think they can outweigh the Cardinals and potentially even compete this year. Remember, we don't know how long they've got left with Skenes, so they've gotta do something soon.

Coming Tomorrow- My fantasy team this year has the very clever name of Big Amish Paradise, which was attained from picking up this guy right when he went on his HR tear last year. 

Borderline Good [for the AL Central]

 

You've probably heard by now how messy the AL Central is in general this year. There are decent teams, but they're so flawed that they can't really ascend to actual good records. The Tigers and Guardians are good but held back by not being great yet. The Royals have decent bones but just aren't playing well at all right now. The Twins got off to a better start than expected but still have little to no depth.

So that means this is the kind of division where the White Sox, while still very much in rebuild mode, can be a third place team. Yes, the very same White Sox.

I dunno, it's weird. Cause technically this is still a bad White Sox team. We're honestly a step back from 2025 because Shane Smith stopped pitching well, Kyle Teel got hurt, the Anthony Kay gaijin plan didn't work as well as year three of the Erick Fedde gaijin plan, and the bulk of the saves has been handled by Seranthony Dominguez, who...like, the Ryan Murphy 911 show wouldn't put him in position to save anybody. And that show has killer bees every few weeks I think.

But like...I can point to several formative, crucial performers on this team that can also be discussed in baseball in general. Davis Martin's off to a sneakily good start, he's 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 33 Ks through his first six starts. Sean Burke and Erick Fedde also have ERAs under 3.50, and Noah Schultz has looked very good in his initial starts in the bigs. That they're essentially using an opener to fill that fifth spot due to the fear of letting Anthony Kay getting lit up from the jump is another factor entirely, but that's a decent rotation. Colson Montgomery already has 8 homers and 21 RBIs, and his power perks were not exaggerated by his 2025 come-up. Miguel Vargas also has 6 homers and 15 RBIs. I'm really not sure what to make of Vargas still, whether he's a formative piece or just a placeholder, but he seems to be helping. And then, now that you mention it, there's also that Murakami guy who's already hit 12 home runs and would be doing so even if he was forced to play in the decaying Oakland Coliseum. 

The odd thing about this team is how many of these crucial pieces, or even fun replacement level pieces, originated in other farm systems. Meidroth and Teel obviously came from the Crochet deal, Vargas from the Edman/Fedde deal [funny how that worked out for the ChiSox], but Edgar Quero was traded for Lucas Giolito, Luisangel Acuna was traded for Luis Robert, Shane Smith was a Rule 5 pick, and Bryan Hudson, Derek Hill, Jarred Kelenic, Drew Romo and Jordan Hicks all came over in cheap deals for next to nothing. So while on one hand it does feel like an island of misfit toys for people desperate for playing time...some of these guys have become helpful MLB options again. Hudson went from being absolutely cooked last year to becoming, once again, a viable relief option. Romo hit his first two MLB homers the other day. Even Sean Newcomb has been helpful in long relief. Somehow it's just getting done.

I don't know if this means the White Sox have legs this season, as there's still far too many people not hitting, but they may have a more dignified season than they've had in a while, and I'm all for that. 

Coming Tonight: Oh, just the best pitcher in baseball, no big deal.

One Saving Grace

 

So uh...not sure if y'all have been up on it, but things haven't been going particularly well for the Mets. They had that epic losing streak, lost Lindor to the IL, now will be without Luis Robert for a bit. The mood is generally pessimistic. Even the die-hard Mets fans are worried. Because Steve Cohen did exactly what he said he was gonna do, and loaded this team with grade-A talent, both homegrown and contracted, and put them all in position to succeed, and they're still getting embarrassed. It both makes absolutely no sense and makes all the sense in the world at the same time. 

Here are some facts. There's only one member of the starting lineup with a WAR greater than 0.2, that being Juan Soto. Francisco Alvarez currently leads the team in home runs with a whopping four, and as a reminder we're one month into the season and not one week. The 'Bo Bichette at third base' experiment is going about as well as you might expect, bringing us back to the 90s trend of a Bichette excelling at the game while being dragged backwards by being forced to play the field 162 games. Most of the production in the last two weeks has come from M.J. Melendez, who somehow wasn't able to do this well enough to keep a job in Kansas City. David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Devin Williams all look positively cooked, and a suddenly-healthy Christian Scott isn't looking much better at the moment. 

This team is hitting .227. You get Robert, Semien, Bichette, Soto, Lindor and Alvarez in the same lineup and you still end up hitting .227. At the very least it's not for a lack of trying, but it's just not what you want from these circumstances. 

What is exciting, though, is that the team has unwittingly returned to the deGrom era, in the sense that they're putting out a genuinely terrific starting pitcher every 5 days and getting little to no run support for him. Nolan McLean is undeniably a star, and is pitching like a tenured pro even less than a year into his big league career. So far he's got a 2.55 ERA, an 0.849 WHIP and 45 Ks through 6 starts. Only one win though, which is very reminiscent of deGrom's luck in Queens. I do have a feeling this team will be good again before McLean has to play somewhere else, because if an arm like that gets wasted on teams like these, I don't think Mets fans will be able to take it. At least Doc Gooden got a World Series ring, man. Tom Seaver too. 

At the very least there's been a slight improvement since the losing streak, but the Mets are still blowing games to the Nationals, and that's not a good look. There is still time to build something here, and with a team like this it definitely can be done. But this is not the way you want to start a season like this. I dunno if it'll take a Soto-led sea change or a Mendoza firing for things to get better, but something will need to happen soon.

Coming Tomorrow- Another mid-2025 callup that's playing a major role in his big league club. This team, if you can believe it, might be in more dire shape than the Mets.

Impractical Magic

 

This Orioles team is, frankly, starting out similarly to the last couple. A few surprise smashes, a rise in younger options, but a lot of things not going as planned. 

After a year where the rotation was too injury-plagued to really make an effort, I figured 2026 would be better for everyone that struggled in 2025. Not quite. Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and now Trevor Rogers are all hurt, and Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish have higher ERAs than they really should. Meaning it's really on guys like Cade Povish and Brandon Young to provide stability. I get that Tyler Wells is really working as a bullpen guy, but he really should be high enough in the depth chart to eventually get plugged back into the fold, right? And again, they were so quick to part with both Grayson Rodriguez and Tomoyuki Sugano that they shouldn't feel unprepared for this moment. 

And that's really what's been stalling the Orioles' forward momentum. The rotation still isn't where it should be, even several years into a dedicated youth build. Shane Baz is gonna be there for ages, and that contract isn't starting out spectacularly. 

Meanwhile, Samuel Basallo, who's also signed for ages, is having a much more promising start to 2026, with 5 homers and 9 RBIs in 22 games. He's mostly getting at-bats at DH while Adley takes catcher more often than not, and seeing as Adley's back to where he was before, that seems like a good move. Also impressing people is Jeremiah Jackson, a 2025 midyear call-up who's a fine option both at 2nd and in the outfield, and in addition he's hitting .272 with 5 homers and 19 RBIs. So far there's an x-factor to him that the team desperately needs more of, as Gunnar Henderson's been hitting for power without much substance behind it. It's also more prominent when Taylor Ward is relying more on his contact game so far, which is extremely well appreciated. Trading for Ward was an outside-the-box move that's paying off so far for this team.

But still, there's too many young guys refusing to move the needle so far. Mayo, Beavers, Cowser, Alexander and O'Neill have been given copious amounts of big moments and haven't capitalized on many yet. Pete Alonso's doing okay, but he's not lighting the place on fire yet. When the most consistent unit on your team is the bullpen, you know some things need to change. And with a division this stacked, the Orioles need to find their full-roster consistency. Cause there will be more Yankees and Rays series', and they're not all gonna be easy.

I'm liking some of the things I'm seeing, especially the nitty gritty details of this team, but the broad strokes need to improve. Luckily there's still time for that to happen.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets just lowered cheap seats to 6 bucks apiece. I reckon they're about 10 when this guy pitches. 

Before Our Very Eyes

 

The way things were looking last season, the Diamondbacks were likely gonna be sellers, start over a bit and see if Carroll and Burnes could make it long enough to see the next stage of the rebuild. The idea was that Kelly wasn't coming back, Gallen wasn't coming back, Marte was getting traded and the dream would be over soon. And then during the offseason, the D-Backs surprised everybody by not punting. Virtually no big pieces were traded. Merrill Kelly, broken as he may be now, was re-signed. And what's more, the D-Backs even got Nolan Arenado and Michael Soroka to pad the roster. 

And that led to a 3rd place, 15-12 start where you can not only see the Lovullo era still thriving, but the next steps beginning to lock into place.

Now, 1st base is already a wild twist, because logically it should be as simple as getting Pavin Smith to do it, but he's hurt. So Carlos Santana started the season as the primary 1st base option. Then he got hurt. And then...the single strangest 1B platoon of them all came along. Cause Ildemaro Vargas has somehow pulled a Donnie Barrels and reinvented himself as an everyday player, hitting .367 with 6 homers and 20 RBIs. Yes, ILDEMARO VARGAS is doing this. I'm just as shocked. And the other guy playing 1st is rookie Jose Fernandez, who hit 2 home runs in his first game, then didn't hit anymore until this past week. 

I'm...dumbfounded, honestly. Two solutions out of absolutely nowhere that were like Plan C and D. And also throw in Nolan Arenado still being decent at third after Jordan Lawlar was moved to the outfield to make room for him [only to get hurt]. Arenado is hitting .286 with 4 homers and 14 RBIs. It's not as pretty as it used to be, but it's more of a batting exclamation point than, say, Evan Longoria in a similar role. Throw in Carroll, Marte and Perdomo doing their usual stuff and you've got a strong lineup somehow. Only real weak spot is catcher with Moreno injured, but James McCann's doing what he can I suppose.

This team's also lucky they caught Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Soroka on the upswing from their respective injury comebacks, cause they've made for a great starting three. The hope is that Corbin Burnes comes back unharmed in a little while and someone, hopefully Brandon Pfaadt, calms down to provide a steadier fifth choice. 

The D-Backs are surprising people so far, including themselves. We'll see how far they're able to take this, but if the stars, like Carroll especially, can stay hot they definitely have a chance to stay embedded in the NL West picture.

Coming Tonight: I always found it very fitting that right after Manny Machado was traded, the Orioles' next savior, Cedric Mullins, arrived. Well right after Mullins was dealt, they called up this guy, and now he's surprising people.

Astros Update: So It's Come to This Edition

 

I don't know if this feels different than the usual Yankee series wins against the Astros...but this one felt pretty sweet. 

Cause typically, and I don't know if you know this, but...typically the Astros-Yankees series' are pretty evenly matched. Y'know, the Astros pull some shit, then the Yankees come back, it's back and forth. And even if the Yankees have had the better regular season luck the last few meetings, it's never easy. But now, and...let's be clear, I'm aware that Spencer Arrighetti and Christian Walker made the third game tougher for us. But like...

Okay. Listen. I've been waiting for an Astros team to give me absolutely nothing for SO LONG. And I'm genuinely psyched that we're here. 

Here's what the Astros are working with right now. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .355 with 38 hits, 26 RBIs and 11 homers, all of those leading the league. It's a herculean start for Alvarez, trying to reclaim momentum after a down season. In addition, Christian Walker's having a comeback year, hitting .291 with 23 RBIs and 7 homers, finally settling in after a rough first season in Houston. Spencer Arrighetti, since coming off the IL, has been 3-0, with a 2 ERA and 21 Ks. Carlos Correa has been terrific on defense filling in for Jeremy Pena, and is also hitting .280 in his usual, pedestrian manner. 

That's it. That's...really it honestly. They're in last place, 11-18, and struggling mightily. And Joe Espada has been trying to save face by going 'well it's the injuries', but...even with that in mind, there are a lot of major players, like Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Lance McCullers, Bryan Abreu and Enyel de los Santos who just aren't pulling their weight. You're also dealing with a past-his-prime Jose Altuve with 8 RBIs in 27 games, steps backwards from both Cam Smith and Brice Matthews, and just a messy lineup schematic in general. 

To be fair to Espada, the injuries have been pretty rough for this team. The starting pitching has been hit so hard that they're now on a rotation of McCullers, Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Peter Lambert (!!!) and an opener. They've already released J.P. France, demoted Colton Gordon and have, for some reason, yet to call on Jason Alexander, who's moonlighting in the Western Union ads Sugar Land. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Tatsuya Imai and Hayden Wesneski are all hurt. So cutting France and Luis Garcia now makes even LESS SENSE. Cause there's barely any room on the roster, and any potential call-ups need to be moved on purposefully. In past years, even with an injury-laden rotation, the Astros would have guys ready, in many cases Arrighetti or Gordon or someone. Now, they don't even have much of a bench, which is...why you don't trade Jake Bloss or Ryan Gusto. In addition, the majority of the outfield is hurt, meaning they either need to chance Alvarez's defense or throw a replacement level guy like Daniel Johnson (!!!!!) or Dustin Harris out there. Which is why you don't cut Chas McCormick. 

Every issue with this current iteration of the Astros seems self-inflicted, and the few guys playing well are coming off of rough, injury-plagued years. I don't know where they're headed. They've had worse starts than this and ended up in the playoffs. I kinda hope that random hot streak isn't enough to sink the AL West for them this time. I'd like to think the Mariners, A's and Rangers are good enough to keep that from happening this year, but...with this organization, can you ever be sure?

For now, though, I'll just take my Yanks series win and be happy. 

Coming Tomorrow- It takes a lot of panache to hit 2 home runs in your MLB debut and then insist you're more comfortable hitting for contact.

I Guess I'll Take Credit for That..

 

I went to a Phillies game a couple weeks ago against the Cubs. Nothing really noteworthy happened, so I thought at the time. But from the start of that game, both teams embarked on long streaks. The Phillies, who lost that game, would go on to lose the next 9, eventually squeaking out a win in Atlanta Saturday night. The Cubs, who won, would keep rolling themselves, winning THEIR next 9. It never usually works that well, where one game can be a turning point for two different teams. And now the Cubs are heading towards first while the Phillies, the way it's looking, might be firing some people very soon.

I don't really want to say the Phillies thing was my fault, but I can take being responsible for a Cubs run. Always fun to see. 

I root it back to Ian Happ, who's always been a sort of supporting player for these Cubs teams despite being longest-tenured. He shows up, does something cool, doesn't make it about him, and Hoerner or Suzuki or PCA gets to be the hero. Well right now Happ leads the Cubs in homers with 7. Dansby Swanson has 6. The people you think would be hitting all the homers in Chicago, like Suzuki and Bregman and Busch, aren't doing as much for this team as the fundamental, 'always there' guys. It's honestly odd that the Cubs have sort of taken Dansby Swanson for granted, but he really just shows up, plays great defensive shortstop, hits .244 and drives in a lot of runs. He's had a 4+ WAR every season he's been a Cub. Even Happ, as good as he's been, didn't really lock in til around 2022. By the way, shockingly Happ's never hit more than 25 homers in a season. Could this be the year he goes for 30?

As I figured, even during the Cubs' rough stretch earlier, the plan of putting a bunch of proven run producers in the same lineup has worked extremely well for this team. Suzuki's hitting .300 in his first 15 games, he's 4 homers in. Hoerner's not only leading the team in average but in RBIs and stolen bases. Moises Ballesteros has become an excellent DH option, with 4 homers and 12 RBIs already. Carson Kelly's strong 2025 has carried over to a just-as-strong 2026, still starting and hitting .300. It's really only PCA and Busch who aren't hitting, and they can turn around in an instant. The rotation isn't terrific, with a lot resting on another okay Shota Imanaga season, but the idea is for the lineup to just outhit anybody anyway. Kind of an uphill battle when you're playing the Dodgers but against the majority of the rest of the league they can really score.

It's a tough division, especially considering that everyone's still above .500, but I think the Cubs have proven, since the streak, that they have the hitting to outrun the competition, and they could build on this and have a fruitful postseason. That's only if they can hang onto momentum like they just did though.

Coming Tonight: I was beginning to think 1st base in Houston was cursed, but all it took was a year to figure out the new park and this guy seems to have broken it.

Expressly Ryan

 

For the first 19 games of the season, you could describe the Twins as 'better than anyone thought they could be'. They were 11-8, having big games against tough pitchers like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, and getting production out of a noticeably slimmer lineup. Since then, however, the Twins have only won once, and that was against the Mets right before they ended their streak. 

So what was it that allowed the Twins to propel past the Tigers and Jays in early April before struggling against the Mets and Rays in late April? No one is quite sure. Some people have theorized there's some sort of Target Field advantage that allows the team to figure out great pitchers, either a tell or a full cheating thing. We may not know about that til they make it back home tomorrow against the Mariners. Yet that doesn't explain why the Reds came to Minneapolis and swept them cleanly, and that's a team that has Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, two easy-to-exploit starters. 

I think the main truth is that the Twins simply aren't great this year, and as things have evened out it's all been confirmed.

I root this argument back to Josh Bell. Josh Bell is a strange case, because he only seems to succeed when playing for bad teams. The second he's traded to a good team, like the 2022 Padres or the 2023 Marlins, his bat stops working. But when the pressure is off he springs into action. Last year, on a completely meaningless Nationals team, Bell became a viable power DH again, hitting 23 homers and 63 RBIs. The Twins took a gamble, and so far he's hitting .244 with 3 homers and 16 RBIs. Not immaculate, but decent production for a team without a ton of real success. It stands out more when the foundational guys, like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis, simply aren't producing many runs. Someone like Austin Martin, amazingly hitting .300 with only 6 RBIs, should not be so valuable to a team's success.

At the very least, the Twins, for the time being, still have Joe Ryan, who's a very good starting option. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.021 WHIP, a 3.90 ERA and 33 Ks. He's very much at the mercy of the run support on many occasions, but he's still the staff ace and he's still a great guy to have around. It's very promising, though, that this team also has Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Mick Abel and, if his first start is anything to go by, Connor Prielipp, to rest on if anything were to happen around, say, July. Bradley in particular is looking better than he ever has on a mound. Who knew there'd be someone that wouldn't succeed until AFTER they left Tampa. Besides Joe Ryan of course.

The Twins now at least still strive to outdo expectations, and I think, if April is anything to go by, they're still capable of big games. I just don't think it's the norm for this team. I don't really think they have it in them.

Coming Tomorrow- There's a lot of teams that don't have anybody left from 2022, let alone 2018, but this guy has been on the Cubs since before they crumpled-and-tossed. And now he's helping them compete again. Gotta feel amazing for the guy.

Sandy & The Hourglass

 

The Marlins are in second place. Are they in second place because they are honestly kinda good, or are they in second place because their competition is the Nationals, who aren't great, and the Phils and Mets, who had awful losing streaks? It's too soon to say. But it has to help that Sandy Alcantara's finally pitching like his old self again.

The Sandy Alcantara era in Miami has been a strange one, because when they had absolutely nothing they still had him, and then once they were able to build a team and compete, Sandy, well...he got hurt, missed a season and spent 2025 not being too great. And now for 2026 they have a lot more cemented. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez make a great DP combo. Kyle Stowers just returned to aid Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee in the outfield. Liam Hicks is having the contact season of his life. And the bullpen has finally locked in consistently. 

But now...this growing, improving Marlins team has a great Sandy Alcantara performance behind it. Through 5 starts, he's got a 2.80 ERA, 23 Ks, a 1.019 WHIP and a complete game shutout under his belt. This is the guy who won the Cy Young a few years ago. There was a worry that the big season cooked his arm, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He's still dominant, he's still trustworthy, and he can still lead this rotation forward. And just to be clear, he's not exactly doing all the work either. Max Meyer's off to a pretty nice start, and has 28 strikeouts already. Janson Junk and Eury Perez have had some pretty nice starts. I figure Braxton Garrett will be back eventually, there's still room for outside voices, but what they have at the moment is working despite the lack of real exclamation points.

I think what's most relieving about this Marlins team is that the parlance 'well, it won't be pretty' doesn't apply to this team as much as it did to past iterations. There is much better hitting on this team, and more of the contact variety. 5 years ago it was easy to get like 6 guys who hit homers and then only hit .220 and be alright with it, but now that Edwards, Stowers, Hicks, Sanoja and Lopez can just hit for other reasons than just hitting home runs, it gives more of an idea of what the team can accomplish. Last year the Blue Jays contact-hit their way to a World Series, and the Guardians' contact game gets them to the playoffs frequently. The Marlins have enough varied hitting energy to get them far. And if all else fails, they have Deyvison de los Santos, who could probably hit 30 home runs if they can keep him in the majors. 

I feel good about this Marlins team. Granted, if the bottom two disappointments can really turn things around, they'll need to shift into a different gear, so hopefully there's a higher ceiling than usual for the Marlins.

Coming Tomorrow- I still can't believe that this is like the one guy the Rays couldn't wait til he blossomed to trade. They just did it immediately. And now he's one of two ex-Rays leading the Twins rotation.

Bigger, Badder and More Canadian

 

It's the kind of prophecy that feels like it's out of a movie, but imagine being in Montreal in 2003, around when it became clear that Vladimir Guerrero was leading the Expos in free agency. Cause it would feel like all the hope was going away with the loss of one guy. Imagine if you had the knowledge to go 'don't worry...there will be another Vladimir Guerrero in 15 years, and he'll be just as good as the previous one, and what's more...he'll get to spend even more of his career in Canada. Cause that's where he was born'.

It sounds ridiculous, but somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has guaranteed, even just 8 seasons into his career, that even as legendary as his father was in all his years in the league...he will be the most Canadian Vladimir Guerrero to ever play. Canada by way of the DR. It just gets more Arthurian the more you think about it. Born in Montreal, plays in Toronto, gets 'em to their first World Series since before he was born, and signs a contract ensuring he'll stay in Canada for years to come. All that remains is for him to play well, and that's what he's been doing.

Through 8 seasons, Vlad Jr. has 185 home runs [15 away from 200, and that's certainly doable], 603 RBIs, 1107 hits, a career .290 average and 26.8 WAR. By 27, that's a strong resume, even without adding the 5 straight all-star appearances and the 8 homers in one postseason. The expectations were huge for Guerrero, and he's definitely risen to them. I think in 2023 there was a moment where we all kinda rethought things for a second, as he was only hitting .260 and not getting 30 homers, but then he replied with 2 straight top-tier seasons and that postseason campaign. Right now he's hitting .337 with 12 RBIs and 30 hits, proving that the emphasis doesn't have to be on power all the time. Guerrero's just turned into a truly tremendous hitter, and an excellent centerpiece player who, even without Bo Bichette, can still command a lineup. 

The Jays themselves, meanwhile, are under .500 and doing their best to bounce back. The full team effort from 2025 seems to have subsided slightly, as the lineup's a bit more piecemeal. Losing Kirk and Springer hurts, and not even a surprise bench turn from Eloy Jimenez and the latent production of Kazuma Omamoto have patched things tremendously. It's just a comparatively less exciting lineup, and that returns the Jays to being a slightly above average team in a division where you need to be overwhelmingly great to survive. The Rays and Orioles are head of the Jays in the division in a year where the Jays felt like a shoo-in for at least 2nd. The pitching is only marginally better, as the 'break in case of emergency' starters, Eric Lauer and Patrick Corbin, are already several starts into the season, Scherzer's looking really cooked and Jeff Hoffman forgot how to save games.

Of course this team can turn things around, as they've done it before. But it just seems like even more of an uphill battle than last year. In 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. felt like one of many prime, pivotal hitters, and now it feels like more is on his shoulders again. Hopefully the rest begin to step up soon.

Coming Tomorrow- He was elite, he got hurt, he struggled...and now he appears to be back.  

Un-X-pected

 

A Padres team desperate for starting pitching, where Fernando Tatis has 0 home runs and Xander Bogaerts has 3, has won 17 games, with 9 of those wins being saved by Mason Miller, who has yet to allow a run. I knew these post-Seidler teams were gonna be weird, but this is wild, guys.

I always expected these Padres teams to come down to Tatis and Machado, and so far neither has been much of a factor. Tatis is technically hitting, and stealing bases, but the power numbers are way down. Machado's hitting .188, and the fear is that the peak years may have subsided. Jackson Merrill is doing *alright*, but he's not 2024 good yet. And so...having Xander Bogaerts around to ace the contact game again is a very good thing. He's looked a bit aimless the last couple years, but now he's back to leading the team in hits and returning to his old power perks. It's a little weird that a team the Padres now needs guys like Ramon Laureano and Miguel Andujar to do a lot of the run production work, but Bogie running things was always a hope when they signed him, and though he's not completely in world-beating mode like he was in Boston, he's still feeling more like himself than he has in a while.

And that's the ultimate feeling. There's a definite spark that is lifting this team over the competition, and it's led to a start that's put them, at long last, at the top of the division with the Dodgers. Now, last year, if you'll recall, the Padres had so many opportunities to gain a cushion against LA but simply could not, due to constantly losing their divisional matchups together. This year, even if there's still some weak spots in the lineup, they've gained enough momentum early to match up to the Dodgers. It's an unassuming Padres team to do this with, but it's appreciated.

Once again, I do worry about the thin rotation aspect. Musgrove isn't back for a couple more weeks, Pivetta's probably mid-May, Canning's second half. They just went and got Lucas Giolito, like they should have two months ago, and Walker Buehler and German Marquez are beginning to wear out their welcomes. Right now it's just Randy Vasquez and Michael King looking halfway decent up there, and while it may be enough for now, there's gonna be a point in the season where you need 5 strong options. I don't care how good your bullpen is, you can't go on 2 sure things and a prayer. It's kind of the exact opposite of the Dodgers' playoff strategy last year, giving all the relief opportunities to starters and hoping the actual relievers don't need to go in.

I still think the Padres can surprise people this year, and if people like Machado, Merrill and Tatis really take off, the Dodgers could have some serious trouble on their hands this year. 

Coming Tonight: I think there was a moment a few years ago where I was beginning to think the hype around this guy could be overblown. I don't anymore. 

Excessive Gore

 

To be at .500 and in 2nd, and ahead of your two greatest competitors in the standings, has to feel weird. Like you're there, you're accomplishing your goal...but is it earned? Are you beating yourself as much as you're beating them? The Rangers are looking decent right now, but is it because they've gotten off to a less rough start than Seattle or Houston, or are they actually on the precipice of something?

The issue of this team, since having to follow up the championship season, has been the inability for the young, homegrown core to actually inherit the team, still relying on contracted veterans like Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom and now Brandon Nimmo to do the heavy lifting. Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Evan Carter have flirted with greatness but injuries have prevented its consistency. Langford is once again hurt, right as he gets going. The good news is that Carter looks good, hitting a homer as I write this and letting his multi-tool ability distract from his comparatively pedestrian average. Jung's hitting .300, that's a nice start. Even Kumar Rocker's beginning to grow accustomed to MLB hitting, and has his ERA below 4. Beyond that, though, this is still a hodgepodge of acquired guns rather than a full youth movement. Which does explain why the team's development has sputtered a bit.

I do credit the Rangers for bringing on MacKenzie Gore, who's still young enough to be on the ground floor of something here. Gore is known for his high-K, high-velocity mentality, which also occasionally leads to a higher ERA. Sure enough, Gore has 35 Ks, a 1.192 WHIP...and a 4.15 ERA. Everything they figured would happen is happening. Still fits into this rotation pretty well though. I don't think Gore is gonna be the full package that the Padres were figuring when they drafted him, but he's still a handy flamethrower to have around. And then you have Jacob deGrom, still very much a viable ace, who's got a 2.29 ERA in 4 starts. I worry a bit about Evo and Leiter, but the season's young. 

Regardless, even if it's not pretty or sustainable, the runs are getting produced. Jake Burger's still an RBI machine, Seager's still the fearless captain of yore, Nimmo's having a comeback year, and Langford and Carter look confident and versatile. The team average is low, and there's a bunch of people still not hitting, but games are getting won. I think any sense of a gameplan went out the window when Bochy left, and now the Skip Schumacher approach just involves winning with what they've got by any means necessary. 

And if that works better than Bochy-ball did...it just proves that you can't really predict anything.

Coming Tomorrow- It's possible he may never live up to his Red Sox numbers, but he's still doing whatever he can to keep his team in the conversation.

The Thrill of the Chase

 

So, we find the Reds rotation in its current incarnation, with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo injured, Andrew Abbott not injured but looking really rough, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder not injured and doing well, Chase Burns looking even better than he did as a call-up last year, and Brady Singer...just waiting til someone notices he's still here. It's not what everyone expected it to look like, but it seems to be working.

The fundamental issue with these Reds rotations is always going to be that because the four main arms throw as hard as they do, it's very unlikely for them all to be healthy together for a consistent period. It's what doomed the 2010s Mets, and it would have doomed the 2025 Dodgers had they not been unstoppable. I would love to see a version of this team that had Greene, Lodolo, Lowder and Burns all together, healthy and good, but the throwing regimens demand that we only get them for a certain amount of time before they need to sit for a couple months. 

Regardless, the version we've got now seems fine. Chase Burns is the current standout, he's 2-1 with 30 Ks in his first 5 starts, looking very MLB ready. Rhett Lowder's pretty good too, he's the most dominant guy they have, even if he hasn't struck as many guys out as Burns. Williamson looks decent, he's probably a better bet for consistency than the other two, though Abbott may just be having a rough April. And luckily the Reds' bullpen is the best it's been in years, with Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Pierce Johnson, Sam Moll, Connor Phillips and Brock Burke all in excellent shape. A shame about Emilio Pagan's blown saves, though...he has a tendency to do that. 

And then to back them up you have Sal Stewart and Elly de la Cruz off to terrific starts, both with 8 homers, and Sal with 24 RBIs already. Elly excelling is no surprise, and he may finally be chasing that MVP, but Stewart is not only MLB ready, he's already one of the most intimidating sluggers in the game. Already a slam dunk at first base. The sad detail is that it's really only them who are hitting right now. Lot of guys flirting with .200 or looking for their first homer or trying to match up. Steer, Friedl, Stephenson and McLain represent the backbone of this team and they're all giving absolutely nothing. Suarez is trying but he's only hit 3 homers so far. 

I sincerely hope the Reds can capitalize more on this great pitching year by bringing forth a full lineup effort, because right now it's just 2 guys doing all the work, and that's not sustainable. You can't waste great seasons by Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, cause who knows how long it'll be until their arms let them have other ones.

Coming Tonight: He got out of Washington right when his new team was about to shock the division.

Mize on the Prize

 

I still think Tarik Skubal essentially taking the pressure off of Casey Mize was the best thing to happen to Mize. Gets picked overall, has 1 good season, gets hurt then struggles to cope with not being the center of everything. And luckily at that point the Tigers have Skubal playing amazingly and he can just...have a nice enough season without the added expectations. It's worked out for all involved parties.

Mize is 29, and has really only had 2 full seasons in the MLB, which is the kind of thing that happens when your development is held up by a pandemic and then injury concerns. Last year was the fullest view of Mize post-TJ, and it earned him an All-Star nod and a surer place in this rotation. As it stands now, he still doesn't have as much to carry as Skubal, or even late-game dominator Framber Valdez, but he's been very nice through his first 4 starts, with a 2.78 ERA, 25 Ks and a 0.8 WAR. Even if he's clearly a #4 guy in this rotation [for now, Jack], he's more sure of himself than he's ever been and he's continuing his 2025 success with similar consistency. 

It's very funny how a lot of this team goes along the idea of 'despite what you might think, the #1 overall guy isn't gonna save the world for this team'. Spencer Torkelson, despite a decent 2025, is back to flirting with the Mendoza line. Still hasn't hit a homer this year. Riley Greene, while not a #1 overall pick, was a highly regarded organizational piece for a while, and though the hope was for him to be a starring man, he's...kinda doing his own thing? He's hitting .265 with 14 RBIs and just 1 homer. It's a very pedestrian year from him so far. Hopefully it heats up at some point. 

What I'm saying is that, because some of the draft picks have sputtered, the Tigers' success has been left to a lot of other guys, and...that may explain why the team hasn't exactly taken off yet this year. Dillon Dingler's having another strong year, with 5 homers and 18 RBIs, but I don't think it's a Cal Raleigh situation where he can become a marquee guy. Gleyber Torres is hitting, but he's below his 2025 standard. At least Kevin McGonigle's still hitting .300 and filling all boxes, but a rookie shouldn't be leading a competitive team in WAR. It doesn't feel like much of a group effort right now, despite the much better pitching picture. 

The Tigers are at .500 right now, and trying to gauge how much it'll take to overtake Minnesota. I still think they're a competitive team, and have a chance at the division title, but this is an inauspicious start for a team that was firing on all cylinders at this point last year. Hopefully something clicks soon enough, as they were working on a streak last week before they had to play Milwaukee. 

Coming Tomorrow- Young, throws smoke, and is getting an opportunity to start for the Reds because...the other young guys that throw smoke keep getting injured for some reason.

Elder Buried

 

I dunno if I'm ever gonna be able to figure out Bryce Elder. Cause either he's a dominant, forceful fly-ball pitcher with a low K rating, or he can't keep runs down to save his life. There's something very classic about Elder, he just stays up there and stays in long enough to get the job done, no real 100mph stuff. Sometimes that results in an ASG appearance and a low ERA, and sometimes that results in everybody killing him at the plate and nobody taking him seriously. I suppose it's connected to how viable the Braves' offense is, cause Elder was great when the Braves were good, and last year when the Braves struggled he was subpar. 

So anyway, the Braves are good again and Bryce Elder has a 0.77 ERA through 4 starts. I dunno if it's gonna make sense, I just know that it's a good thing.

The Braves' rotation has this 'handle with care' quality to it, because it hinges on four guys who throw hard and get injured more often than not. If Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep didn't overthrow and run the risk of missing time, they'd be able to accomplish more and potentially win more titles. But this is the life they've chosen. So the Braves now have to stack the pitching staff with supplanting options that don't overthrow. Reynaldo Lopez is one of them, and after a lost 2025 he's back in full force, with a 2.18 ERA in 4 starts. Grant Holmes has been very reliable, and durable, in a swing role, and so far while his ERA is closer to 4 than he'd like, he's still a valid innings eater. Even 35-year-old Martin Perez has joined in on the fun, with 4 games of pure dominance and a 2.21 ERA despite only 10 strikeouts. 

If the team has the leverage and the pitcher can stay on, control guys like Elder and Holmes can still be valuable pieces. It's actually a very efficient strategy, one that I'm really interested to see morph once some more starting options return. Strider and Waldrep should be back soon, and they're gonna want to get Didier Fuentes more starts at some point [unless they mean to dangle him for an upgrade]. 

That level of pitching depth combined with a ferocious lineup has made the Braves a definite standout so far. Nobody wants to go up against a team where Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Dominic Smith are not only hitting but surging. Dominic Smith has gone from a handy fill-in in SF to a genuine DH standout, with 4 homers and 16 RBIs in 17 games. Baldwin's a power hitter who's also hitting .304 right now, he's everything you want. Mauricio Dubon might just be the guy going forward at short, with apologies to Ha-Seong Kim. Only guy that isn't really hitting is Yaz, but it's early.

Now that the Braves have sufficiently embarrassed the Phillies, they now get to play Washington for four games and arrive home in time for the Phillies to have hopefully remembered how to play baseball. It's looking extremely good for the start of the Walt Weiss regime in Atlanta, and I reckon it's about to get even better. Cause Acuña's barely even woken up yet.

Coming Tomorrow- He was drafted 1st overall, and was thought to be the first piece of a legendary youth movement. It didn't work out 100% as planned, but he's still a very important piece of their next act.

Rice to See You

 

After a really embarrassing stretch, where the A's, Rays and Angels took some really winnable games away from us, the Yankees finally rebounded, with a commanding sweep of...a team that's supposed to be better than any of those three.

...we can't touch Aaron Civale but we torch Cole Ragans? What a team. Anyway,

The immediate takeaway is that, as vital as Aaron Judge has been to this team, Ben Rice might quickly be becoming just as vital. Judge has 9 homers right now, and Rice just hit his 8th. Rice currently leads the Yankees in RBIs with 18 and average with .338, and doing this while, just weeks ago, Aaron Boone still wasn't convinced Rice was an everyday player, is a big statement. Rice should be in the lineup everyday, cause when he is he does things like that. He's hit home runs in four straight games. That is pretty special. And that is everyday player material. 

I've been eyeing Boone's judgment a lot this year, especially given that Randal Grichuk began the year with the team, going 2-for-20, while Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones are still stuck in the minors. Some guys who aren't hitting can't really be helped, like Austin Wells, and some know their days are kinda numbered, like Ryan McMahon, but Grichuk can't be wasting a roster space when there's genuine young talent that could be helping the team. I get it, contract control, whatever, but we want to win games and we can't if we keep starting a guy that can't hit. That's why the 'well Goldy should start here instead of Rice' made no sense even BEFORE Rice went on the homer tear. Seniority doesn't mean shit if you're cold as hell. 

Through all of the lineup tumult, and there's been lots, the rotation hasn't been much of an issue. Fried-Schlittler-Warren is a solid punch, Weathers had a great start yesterday, and Gil...Gil at least isn't Taijuan Walker bad. It's the bullpen guys that have been acting up, especially Bednar and Doval. Even Angel Chivilli struggled a bit keeping the Royals at bay to end yesterday's game. At least Tim Hill's still Tim Hill. Dunno what we'd do without him. 

This is a flawed Yankees team, but we can hit, and we can hold down runs. Bellinger's still a success in New York, Stanton's bat is still a valuable asset, and Jose Caballero can still steal bases. The Sox are up next, and the Astros follow, and with a worse team, and better Sox and Astros teams, I'd be more worried. But this Royals series quieted my anxieties slightly. Maybe we'll gain some momentum and stay strong against two noted rivals. If Rice can stay hot, anything's possible.

Coming Tonight: A guy that keeps his ERA low by having a terrific team behind him and not overexerting himself. So it's odd seeing him next to Chris Sale and Spencer Strider.

Empty Pages

 

Hey...guess who has the best record in baseball? No, really, guess. You'll never get it.

Despite being upset by the Rockies twice this weekend [more proof that the Rox are quietly improving], the Dodgers are still 15-6, and surging in all the places people thought they would. Shohei Ohtani's on-base streak is still active? Of course it is. Freddie Freeman's still an elite 1B option even after 35? Of course he is. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's still one of the best starters in the game? You know it. 

Though shockingly, the team's current WAR leader is not Shohei Ohtani, nor Freeman or Yamamoto, but one Andy Pages. Pages had a strong first few months to the 2025 season before balancing out a bit, but his April's been outrageous, with a 1.083 OPS, a .389 average, 28 hits and 21 RBIs, all league highs. Pages also has 5 homers, tied for second place with Ohtani and...Dalton Rushing?? Is that right? The Dodgers' backup catcher can rake like hell? Damn, that's pretty helpful in case something happens to Will Smith. But yeah, Pages has led the charge, and unlike some contemporaries [James Outman mostly], he's proven to have MLB staying power and has become more multifaceted than before. Gotta love that this team can still find new heroes even in a lineup with 3 MVPs in it. 

You're also seeing some of the guys who had slower starts begin to find themselves. Kyle Tucker's slowly heating up, he has 3 homers and 13 RBIs now. It's not as immediate as his Chicago success was but he's still pretty damn good. Ohtani only has 10 RBIs but he's also like their best starter so I think the Dodgers can let it slide. Glasgow's 2-0 with a team-leading 29 Ks and a 3.24 ERA, so he's getting his stuff under control. Jack Dreyer and Tanner Scott have gotten their ERAs back down, and Edwin Diaz is trying to. Even Justin Wrobleski can hang on for a truly dominant start in a rotation that happened to have an open space, and now he's sticking around. I do think once Snell and Knack come back he'll be back to long relief, but this will at least make him look desirable to the other 29 teams.

Even without Mookie Betts and Blake Snell, this is still a good Dodgers team because it's gained depth naturally vs. out of injury necessity. Justin Wrobleski feels like a genuine starting option and not a failsafe. There are no stunts to avoid bullpen depth. The bench guys are valuable MLB options. The system doesn't feel like it's being gamed...yet. Though...if nobody can stop this team then we really do deserve a lockout. Cause they're good, but they're not immaculate. No team is immaculate. So hopefully a successor can take them out. And seeing as the Padres are only a half game behind them now after doing some serious streaking, maybe it'll come sooner than we think.

Coming Tomorrow- Aaron Judge has 9 home runs, but this guy has 8. And he's no slouch either.

Falling Backwards

 

The AL West is kinda weird right now. The Mariners and Astros are in last, and the Angels and Rangers are fighting for first. It may be only April, but it's at least giving the Mariners an opportunity to work their way up.

It's very clear what's plaguing the Mariners right now. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford just aren't playing well. And that's the majority of the core from last year, not to mention Polanco and Suarez are gone. So already, if a lot of guys are muted, that doesn't match up, immediately. To have three crucial hitters batting under .200, not even including Rob Refsnyder who's yet to even register a hit, makes it much harder for other teams to take you seriously. Cal Raleigh conquered the world last year and now he's a .163 hitter, despite 11 RBIs. Either teams have figured him out or it's just a rough start.

It is therefore helpful that, at least, somebody is providing stable hitting in Seattle. And it's Randy Arozarena, already pretty beloved there after a year and a half. Arozarena's just a good guy to have around, can do all sorts of things and can go on a tear when you need him to. So far he's hitting .284 with 21 hits, 7 RBIs and 5 stolen bases. All sorts of fun contact work, plus the occasional homer. In fact the contact guys, like Cole Young, Brendan Donovan and Dominic Canzone, have been off to the best starts. And Luke Raley's power numbers don't hurt either. There are definitely pieces of this Mariners lineup that do work, but until the larger half do their part it's just gonna keep looking this awkward and scattered.

At the very least the pitching hasn't been much of an issue so far. Emerson Hancock, Bryan Woo and George Kirby all look great. Hancock seems to finally have recovered from a few injury-plagued years, and he's 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA. Logan Gilbert doesn't look TOO terrible, but he's still 1-3 with a 4+ ERA, s hopefully the reps bring that down. Luis Castillo might be cooked after a few excellent, consistent seasons in a row. I'm not sure who the 'break in case of emergency' starter is. Cooper Criswell maybe? Bryce Miller's out for a bit longer, I dunno if it'll sync up perfectly. Bullpen looks pretty good too, barring some struggles from Andres Munoz.

Look...there is a good team in here, it's just that not all of it has hatched yet. I imagine Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh will start hitting soon, and things will flip around. The team's so well-designed that even if it doesn't happen all the way, good things will still happen. There's depth, there's failsafes. Last night they looked really good. I think they'll be alright eventually. 

Coming Tonight: I remember hearing about this guy as a prospect and thinking that, seeing as the Dodgers hadn't traded him yet, they clearly knew something cool was gonna happen. And I was right. 

Cold as Brice

 

If you were wondering what a Brewers team without Jackson Chourio, Quinn Priester, Andrew Vaughn or Christian Yelich looks like, and how it stands a chance without those pieces, well...Pat Murphy could manage his way out of a tornado if he was given the opportunity. This is a team where Brandon Lockridge or Brandon Sproat can be the hero. Anything's possible, even without Yelich. That was always the fear, when Yelich became the MVP guy, it was always a worry of 'what is this team without him'. And without him, the Brewers still have Brice Turang.

Brice Turang is one of those players who can do just about anything. Hit for average, hit home runs, steal bases, play great 2nd base, get on base, lead the team. Between Chourio, Turang and Contreras, the Brewers have a lot of those multifaceted guys. But Turang right now is the most crucial, because he's hitting, leading the team in WAR, and leading the team in OPS. Turang has quietly become one of the most crucial players in baseball since breaking out in 2024, and as a former high-tier prospect in this organization, it's very affirming. That's what's great about the Brewers, their top prospects pay off. Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Brice Turang, and now Coleman Crow have all delivered on the promises the scouts have made. So with Jesus Made and Cooper Pratt on the way, and possibly Jeferson Quero if they can manage to keep him up for more than 5 seconds, it's very reassuring. The last true 'sure thing' to dive-bomb out of Milwaukee was Keston Hiura. 

The Brewers' ability to grow around injuries has served them well this season. Jake Bauers has been covering 1st, and he's been doing pretty well, leading the team in homers with 5. Joey Ortiz is doing his best to avoid being replaced by Jett Williams or Jesus Made, and so far it's working, with 4 steals already. Brandon Lockridge is aware he's just a placeholder for Jackson Chourio but he still had a nice day at the plate today. And Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat and Coleman Crow have all capitalized on a freer rotation. It's a shame Logan Henderson couldn't run on that opportunity, but Crow seems ready, and Harrison and Sproat are more than willing to let their former teams regret trading them.

Truth be told, the Brewers' season this far has been pretty sporadic. A hugely successful stretch to start, then six straight losses, and now 4 straight wins. I think they've got enough leverage to ram back into the lead, and this is even before Chourio comes back. 

Coming Tomorrow- It is so refreshing to not have to play this guy like 16 times a year anymore. I already dug him fundamentally but now that he plays for a team I enjoy I think it's safe to say I do really like this guy. Anyway he's been hitting well.  

Messick I've Made

 

I caught about five seconds of the near-no-no Parker Messick was attempting last night. I turned it on in the ninth, saw the O's keep Cleveland down, and then Messick got up and immediately gave up a hit. Which is the effect I have on most no-hitters. 

The thing is, hearing Parker Messick's hitless through eight isn't exactly a 'WHAT??' sort of news piece. Messick's been brilliant since the Guardians brought him up last year, and he's already 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 4 starts. Messick isn't too flashy, he's just a stocky guy who out leverages hitters and keeps runs down. That was Tanner Bibee for a bit, but now he's struggling to keep runs down. Messick is closer to the old school pitching mentality, and for someone like him to be succeeding in Cleveland alongside Gavin Williams, one of your standard high-speed/high-K pitchers of the 2020s, that once again proves how versatile the Guardians are. The age of the Guards' rotation being a murderers row is mostly done, but having useful, sturdy guys like Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi following in still does the trick. Messick is very close to ace material, which is wild when Williams and his 29 Ks are right there, but he just seems like the guy this pitching staff can congregate around.

Now, while the rotation has improved from last year, there's still some bullpen arms that are stuck in 2025. Cade Smith is a fundamentally strong closer that still keeps giving up runs and hits even before he gets the save. Smith made the 9th tougher than it should have been last night, and it's a lot like what he was doing last year. The good part is the bullpen still has enough reliable, homegrown options like Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis that the cumulative bloodshed is still low. This why the Guardians build their teams like they do, so there's always a pool of guys they can trust. 

All that said, the pitching has been leading the way for this Guardians team so far. Not that the hitting isn't good, it's just still a bit unrefined. Obviously Jose Ramirez works, obviously Steven Kwan works, and now it's clear that Chase De Lauter works. Beyond that it's a lot of guys who ebb and flow. I guess Brayan Rocchio's good again, he's playing elite shortstop alongside Daniel Schneemann, making waves at 2nd. Angel Martinez seems to have a handle on left field finally, that's good. Beyond that, Kyle Manzardo's backpedaled tremendously, Juan Brito's not ready yet, Austin Hedges is hitting better than Bo Naylor [which...lol], and David Fry still isn't at 100%. This is a scattered offense, and while occasionally good things happen, there's less depth than you would think. 

But...in a tumultuous AL Central, the Guardians have been one of the sole constants thus far. Even if the Twins are currently leading, one does not expect them to continue at that pace the rest of the season. The Tigers have stalled and then raced forward, the Royals have struggled and then soared. Nobody's really walking in a straight line...except, comparatively, for Cleveland, who even on their worst days still can turn around and have a strong game. I think they'll earn it over time, but the Guardians are currently the team to beat in this division, and having Parker Messick as an ace certainly doesn't hurt.

Coming Tomorrow- A rare kind of player who can do just about anything. Brewers are lucky to have him. 

Wood Work

 

I've been writing this blog, and following baseball, for over a decade. I've seen a lot of bad teams that, for all intents and purposes, could be lost to history without anyone noticing. Aside from the last two seasons of all-time ineptitude, I've seen versions of the Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, Rays and Astros that completely refused to be anywhere close to good, and trudged along out of their own necessity. 

But something to be aware of is that it's very hard for a bad team to still have nobody I collect on it. The 2000s Orioles still had Brian Roberts. The early 2010s Astros still had Hunter Pence. I think about the stretch from 1994 til like 2005, where the Brewers had virtually no one I would ever think of seriously collecting playing for them. Aside from that one year of Hideo Nomo and the beginning of Nelson Cruz, it's a wasteland of replacement level guys and 'that guy's. At one point, Milwaukee seriously subsisted off of a core of Jeromy Burnitz, Geoff Jenkins, Jeff Cirillo, Jose Valentin, Fernando Vina and Dave Nilsson. Really.

So what I'm saying is that the 2026 Nationals...likely will be a bad team. They're not looking terrific, not gonna lie. They won yesterday against the Pirates in a squeaker, and even then most people are chalking that up to Don Kelly's mismanaging rather than anything the Nats actually did. Even though they currently lead the Mets in the standings, and are arguably playing better than the Phillies right now, they are not exactly expected to compete, and the general idea is that they'll likely sell at the deadline. But...even if they are a bad team, they still have James Wood and C.J. Abrams, and both are terrific. 

The Nationals have taken on several prospects from other teams, Abrams chief among them, with the intent on starting a new dynasty. Some have already moved on; Lane Thomas is now with Kansas City and MacKenzie Gore is now with Texas. The majority are still impacting the direction of this team. Even though Wood and Abrams came over in the same deal, they're still the marquee guys for this Nats team. Abrams is off to a scorching start, hitting .367 with 19 RBIs and 6 homers, plus a crazy 1.175 OPS. It is very possible that the Nats could trade Abrams at the deadline, and the lack of any 1st place prospects have sort of cemented that.

Which leaves James Wood, who I do not think is in danger of being traded anytime soon. And the Nationals are all the better for it. Wood is 23, reaching his prime, and still hitting great power numbers, with 5 homers and 14 RBIs already. Dude's a born power hitter, and though the high K rate is still scary, his production can't be denied. The hope is he can stay in Washington for a bit and help the team develop. You're already seeing Brady House, Foster Griffin, Daylen Lile, Nasim Nunez and Clayton Beeter becoming everyday options, and it's better than the carousel of replacement guys we've seen over the last few years.

The Nats at least have control over how much they can accomplish even in the midst of a seemingly lost year like this one. If James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Jacob Young can deliver on great seasons, that'll at least be a step in the right direction. 

Coming Tonight: He just took a no-hitter into the eighth right around the point where Cleveland fans really started tiring of the old ace.

Wilyer Or Won't You

 

I don't think anybody could have predicted just how rough the Red Sox's start would be. I don't think many people were thinking they'd be a 1st place finisher, but the idea was that these guys could chase the division and contend with some of the bigger guns on account of their lineup core and well-stocked rotation, but...yeah if anybody came into this season thinking this would be an outright last place team, I doubt it'd gain too much traction. 

Let's see, what's failed already for this team. Okay, so Ranger Suarez in Fenway has gone essentially as badly as one might expect, he's struggled to find his footing already. Johan Oviedo made one appearance and is now out for a few months, meaning they gave up The Password, still chilling in Indianapolis, for nothing. Caleb Durbin's been an absolute train wreck at third, hitting .126, meaning they could have avoided this by signing Bregman. Marcelo Mayer still can't hit at the MLB level, and without David Hamilton's security, and with Romy Gonzales and Triston Casas hurt, the infield's looking dire. Jarren Duran still isn't hitting, and has now resorted to flipping off fans. Brayan Bello's having another disappointing year after so much promise. And now, after a rough start in Minneapolis, Garrett Crochet has a 7.58 ERA, which he will spend the rest of the season trying to get down despite the ability to slow down any team, which he still has.

That's a LOT that isn't working. And that doesn't even include the fact that they have no pieces left from the Rafael Devers deal, and one of them, Kyle Harrison, was redeeming himself in Milwaukee til the injury. Too many flighty decisions are coming back to haunt this Sox team early, and it's begun to piss off the fanbase. And if there's one thing you do not want to do, it's piss off New Englanders. They took the Pats thing fairly well, but this Sox thing is happening on top of the potential of both an early Celtics exit and a rough seeding against the Sabres. If anything else bad happens, the Boston fans are gonna start storming the field and fighting Trevor Story.

It's not that there aren't highlights, but they feel hidden. Wilyer Abreu's off to a phenomenal start, hitting .333 with 10 RBIs and 3 homers. He leads the league in WAR with 1.4, which is pretty nice. Roman Anthony and Willson Contreras have already been pretty productive in terms of power numbers, and are looking to keep the top of the lineup looking that scary. Connelly Early has been providing a shocking bit of consistency amid a rotation that should be pitching better, as he's the only one of the 5 with an ERA lower than 3. And Aroldis Chapman seems to love Boston, and still has a very low ERA. Not sure why a guy who has a history of hitting things would enjoy Boston so much but there you go.

The Sox don't just look bad right now, they look dire. As dire as a team with that much money put into it can look. There's always a chance to turn things around, but this really isn't a great start.

Coming Tomorrow- Since Soto left, the Nationals have been looking for a piece that could be described as 'foundational'. I think they found one.

Fill a Buster

 

You'd think that adding Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Harrison Bader and Luis Arraez to a Giants team like this would amount to a beefed-up lineup, right? That's kind of the idea when you get those guys. Instead, we have a team that's only scored 6 or more runs in 4 of their first 14 games. A lot of games of milling around, scoring maybe a run, or just getting blanked. Devers is hitting .212, Bader's hitting 115, Heliot Ramos is hitting .226, and only Willy Adames has hit more than 2 home runs. 

Kind of an odd way of going about it, but Buster seems to know what he's doing.

And that's just been the refrain ever since Buster Posey took over the head office. 'Well, he knows what he's doing'. His leadership brought 3 rings to the city, and his final season surge brought a surprise NL West winning year in 2021. Yet so far, the Giants have been...kinda similar to how they were when Buster took the job. Lots of promise, not a lot of payoff. Now they don't even have the luxury of Logan Webb, as he's struggled in his first few starts. The rough go has landed the Giants at the bottom of the division, below even the Rockies, who are at the very least 'okay' this year. 

There is SOME positive movement in this lineup, but it's not where everyone thought it would be. Willy Adames, after a rough year 1 in San Fran, is definitely his old self, hitting .273 with 6 RBIs, 9 doubles and and 3 homers. Matt Chapman and Luis Arraez are both off to strong contact starts. The big surprise has been Daniel Susac, a rookie catcher who's surged in a backup spot, already 7 for 12 with 3 RBIs. Beyond them, though, it's been disappointing. The whole outfield is struggling, Bailey's still not hitting, and Devers...might just be this kind of high-K hitter now.

At the very least the pitching's better. Webb's gonna come around eventually [hopefully], but until then there's still Robbie Ray, former Cy Young winner and ace. Ray's gotta feel bad that he left Toronto AND Seattle before both teams took off, and now he's in SF without much hope for contention. He's still a very strong option though, with a 2.42 ERA and 24 Ks in his first 4 starts. Ray is 34, a few surgeries removed, and still a strong strikeout artist. Landen Roupp and Tyler Mahle haven't been too bad either. All else fails and they might give Carson Whisenhunt another go, and maybe that'll work this time.

There's enough to distract you from the general disfunction, but the Giants still aren't a true competitor, after years of trying desperately to match up to the Dodgers or Padres. Now they can't even match up to the Rockies. The season is still very young, and a surge is always possible, but not without a lot of much needed waking up. If Devers can go on an April/May run like the one that got him to SF, maybe they'll be alright.

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of where Devers was last year, uh...they're not doing too great either. This outfielder in particular is, but...otherwise it's pretty rough.