Saturday, May 20, 2023

Always Be Closing: 400 Blows

 


As usual, I use the Always Be Closing tag as a way of highlighting specific developments and moments in the field of closing pitching, how things are different now, changing now, yada yada. And I think it's probably a good moment to talk about closing pitching, seeing as we have one longtime closer just passing the 400 saves mark, and another looking to pass that mark within his next few appearances. 

Kenley Jansen, after a decade's work in Los Angeles delivering season after season of consistent work, has mellowed into a decent option for teams willing to compete, but also willing to stomach the occasional dropped save. Basically, Jansen's 2010s made him look like Mariano Rivera, and his 2020s have made him look like Jose Mesa. Craig Kimbrel, who's still sitting at 398 saves, had a 2010s that made him look like Mariano Rivera, and a 2020s that has made him look like Rod Beck in the 2000s. As predicted. But Jansen, even in the last few years, has kept pounding out saves, led the league with 41 last year for the Braves, and has 9 saves already with Boston. Granted, he's been shaky since getting #400, but he's still reliable enough for a Sox team that only has so much to hold onto.

Kimbrel has been given some more ninth inning opportunities than he had earlier this season, thanks to an injury to Jose Alvarado, but he's not the closer he was. Even if he did deliver 22 saves last year for a team that didn't especially need even an okay closer, he's failed to really latch onto a team since leaving the Cubs. He was extremely rough starting out, but has been scoreless in his last four appearances, has picked up a save in the last week or so, and is beginning to look more comfortable in middle relief than he has in a while. I don't know if this means that Kimbrel is 'back' or anything, but it does make his goal of reaching 400 a little more attainable. 

Right now, there are two active closers in the all time top-10 saves list. The next closest active closer to the top 10 is #24. Unfortunately, it is Aroldis Chapman. Unless he somehow figures his shit out, I doubt he's passing Dennis Eckersley. The only other two active closers in the Top 50 all-time list are Mark Melancon, who is both injured and in his late 30s, and Edwin Diaz, who is juuust over the Top 50 line. The way closing careers are going, and the way teams are utilizing relievers, there have been less and less 'perennial' type closers, people that have been at this for 10 consecutive years or whatnot. Of the current designated closers, five of them, six if you count Kimbrel covering for Alvarado, have had careers as closers going back to before the pandemic; Jansen, Josh Hader, David Robertson, Will Smith and Ryan Pressly. If they weren't hurt this year, I'd add Melancon and Diaz. Two of the six names, Robertson and Smith, had years that stopped them from consistent runs of saves/9th inning work. 

I think it's gonna be harder going forward to get someone like Jansen or Kimbrel, or for there to be somebody who notches 40 saves multiple years in a row. Closing is very much a 'what have you done for me lately' thing, and a lot of current closers are just people who've relieved excellently and are first on the depth chart. That's how we have people like Carlos Estevez, Evan Phillips, Felix Bautista and Clay Holmes pressed into the role. While there are some young guys who could be at this for a while, like Alexis Diaz, Jhoan Duran, Camilo Doval and especially Emmanuel Clase, who's to say they won't struggle to hit consistent marks, like several other recent closers have?

I'm still happy for Kenley Jansen, and hopeful for Craig Kimbrel. All the while I'm not sure when another player will join them in the top 10, though.

Coming Tomorrow- The Padres farmed him, started him, then the moment he got injured they dealt him. And now he's making them regret it.

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