Wednesday, April 6, 2022

On the 2022 Rookie Invasion

 


We're probably gonna be talking about the implications of the collective bargaining agreement for years after this. A lot has been put into motion. Most peculiarly, the CBA included a bit about service time, sort of curtailing the habit of teams leaving players in the minors until midway through the season in order to control the amount of time they have them. Now, teams are being encouraged to call-up prospects to start the season rather than waiting until it's convenient for their payrolls. 

And so this is where we're starting the 2022 season with. One of the most prevalent rookie classes in a while, and this is just the beginning.

I'm gonna go through the big-deal prospects who secured a spot with the team right off the bat, and talk about how much of an impact they could have on their teams. Or, moreover, if their call-ups could lead these teams further. We'll start with the big one.

Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners- On one hand, it was only a matter of time. For years, Julio Rodriguez had been smoking up the minors, alongside fellow can't-miss prospect Jarred Kelenic, and making a name for himself as a prospect to be reckoned with once he eventually came aboard. Yet, at the same time, the Mariners team that would inherit him was becoming more and more stacked with talent, to the point where I wasn't convinced he'd be brought up til later this year because the Ms already had so much. Not even factoring Julio into the equation, they have an outfield schematic of Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic and Jesse Winker, which is already pretty awesome. I'm assuming the goal is to have Haniger play some games at DH in order to make room for Julio, and while Haniger is a surer bet at DH than Luis Torrens, does this tamper with the flow of the lineup, the one that was just getting going last season? 

I imagine Rodriguez will have a great season, possibly a ROY-qualifying one. But with the Ms already planning to be good, I'm not sure how much better he'll make them. This could be a playoff team, let's be clear. But will Julio have room to be one of the biggest stars of it? Maybe? But I'm not convinced yet.

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals- This one honestly shocked me, this call-up. And then the more I thought about it the more it made sense. Hunter Dozier has become a liability at 3rd, they're probably gonna move him to DH. Whit Merrifield is again shifting to the outfield, so Nicky Lopez is shifting to second so Mondi can take back short. The spot is open for Witt. So I guess he's ready. In 12 Spring Training games, he did hit .406 with 8 RBIs and 3 homers, so he's hot enough to warrant a look. And most interestingly, he fits right in with the most subtle potential contender on the board. I would place the Royals in the exact middle of the playing field, between teams that spent to dominate and teams that pawned everything away. The Royals know they can get wins against half the league, and the trick is finding the small ways of taking on the big guys. Witt's bat might be one of those factors. But like Rodriguez, I don't know if he'll be THE star, at least this year.

Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers- Let it be known that Riley Greene was supposed to be the Opening Day call-up, but due to an injury the Tigers went with arguably the bigger prospect, infield bat Spencer Torkelson. Tork was picked 1st overall for a reason, the guy's looking like a multi-tool talent with a 30-homer year in the minors last year. The fella has smoked through the minors in just over a year and looks like a decent piece for this current Tigers infield. They've got a lot of guys, like Torkelson, who can play a bunch of different positions and can be moved around. Schoop could be on first, Candelario could be on first, either could take third. It allows for this sort of flexibility that they've been wielding for a few years. What's telling, though, is that the Tigers dealt fellow corner infield prospect Isaac Paredes to Tampa in the Austin Meadows deal. So they seem to be clearing a path for Tork to take some games at 3rd. The only thing is unlike some of these other guys, Tork hasn't exactly been promised a starting spot right off the bat, and with his youth I completely understand it. I think he'll work his way into a role and maybe take a little more time to prove himself, which is totally valid for a 22-year-old who was drafted just two years ago.

Hunter Greene & Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds- I discussed this yesterday, but the Reds not only lost Wade Miley and Sonny Gray to trades, but they lost Luis Castillo and Mike Minor to injuries. So they're going in with a woefully unstocked pitching rotation, and they need all the help they can get. Most of the options they have from the Opening series are rookies, including Reiver Sanmartin, who made one or two starts last September. And, of course, they've called up their two ripest pitching prospects, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Greene has taken a WHILE to develop, thanks to injuries and setbacks, but he seems to be doing better now, and Lodolo is a valid enough starting option to try this time. I do think, though, that both of these players will be at the mercy of run support and their own inexperience. I want to think that Greene is still everything he was cracked up to be, but he was a little shaky out of spring, even if his 2021 was a step in the right direction. Lodolo at least had a better ERA in Spring play, but I'm still thinking these two will have the same first year transition period that people like Tarik Skubal, Logan Gilbert and even Lucas Giolito have had. I just hope the Reds don't give up on them.

Matt Brash, Seattle Mariners- Lost in the shuffle of J-Rod's promotion was the news that starting prospect Matt Brash, a Canadian fireballer netted in the Austin Nola deal, would make the team as well. The Mariners do have a confident rotation setup, between Marco Gonzales, Robbie Ray, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert. But it sort of ends there. There are marginal fifth options, like Justus Sheffield and Tommy Milone, but nothing they can really put trust in. Enter Brash, who's been insanely strong in the minors the past year or so, and posted a blistering 0.96 ERA in three starts in Spring Training. It looks like Brash will get the fifth starting spot, and I'm honestly thinking he'll be a sleeper hit in Seattle through the first few months. What worries me is whether or not the rest of this rotation holds up to potential, or if we have to bring in a few ringers to aid people like Gonzales or Gilbert. I do think Brash will end up being a nice backbone of things without being a true standout, but it'll take a lot more than just him to ensure a great season.

Diego Castillo, Pittsburgh Pirates- Perhaps the biggest surprise of the spring. Castillo, former Yankee infield prospect, was dealt to Pittsburgh for Clay Holmes, who is admittedly still part of the bullpen mix for New York. However, Castillo's bat absolutely broke loose in Spring Training this year, hitting .371 with 12 RBIs and 6 homers, cementing his status as a potential starter for the Bucs this year. To put it into perspective- the big shortstop prospect everyone was looking at in Bradenton was Oneil Cruz, the tall guy who started two games at the end of 2021. However, Cruz may still need time in the minors, and Castillo completely lapped him in the conversation. And seeing as there's no surefire answers at shortstop for the Bucs right now, Castillo may get a ton of starting time. To be perfectly honest, an infield of Michael Chavis, Kevin Newman, Diego Castillo and Ke'Bryan Hayes is actually pretty awesome, with no offense towards Vanessa Hudgens' BF Cole. If Castillo has a year anything befitting of his spring, he'll be a sleeper favorite for Rookie of the Year and a potential team hero for a while. At the same time...I am getting a slight Yermin Mercedes vibe from this start. Hopefully he gets along with Derek Shelton.

Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies- Another move I didn't exactly see coming. After bringing up Alec Bohm and Mickey Moniak in successive years, the Phillies are now promoting their shortstop prospect Bryson Stott. The Las Vegas native had a great spring, hitting .419 with 13 hits in 13 games, and has a lot in common with another Vegas native with the same first three letters of his first name. The only problem? Didi Gregorius is still on the payroll, and even if he's had diminishing returns the last few seasons, he's still a fan favorite and still wants to be a part of this team. It's honestly a little heartbreaking to see the former Yankee favorite begin to be phased out in favor of the new, young guy like Stott. I think the plan is to use Didi as the starter for a bit, hope he rebounds, and then go with Stott. The good news about this young core the Phillies are trying to ingratiate into the roster is that Alec Bohm and Mickey Moniak have both had great springs, and it's looking like they'll be able to supplant the contract guys. If Stott can add to that, terrific. I just remember the last time the Phillies promoted a shortstop prospect right at the start of the season, and we're paying him to play Triple-A right now. 

Adam Oller, Oakland Athletics- In the wake of the Athletics' roster purge, it's going to be very necessary for some of the prospect returns to play a role in the team. Kevin Smith will likely be starting at third after coming over in the Chapman deal, and there's a chance that Cristian Pache can worm into a starting spot in the outfield after being dealt for Matt Olson. And then there's Adam Oller, a reportedly-majors-ready starting pitcher that came over in the Mark Canha deal. Oller has bounced around the minors for years, pitching in the Pirates, Giants and Mets organizations. Oller, to his credit, looked the most promotable that he has last year for Syracuse, so there's a chance that he could be coming into his own finally, but he's 27, so if it doesn't happen now, it may not. With the lack of A's pitching options, and the fact that Paul Blackburn and Daulton Jeffries may be getting a go as well, Oller will probably be a starter right off the bat in Oakland. His Spring Training numbers weren't great, though, and there is the possibility that the A's might just use Oller as a bullpen piece before starting him...but what other options do they have? Oller could surprise some people, and I hope he does, but this is probably the strangest case we have here. 

So yeah, there's a potential for a lot of great early call-up stories here. Some of these guys may pan out. Some may not. But it'll definitely be a very interesting and varied rookie class. Cause, keep in mind, we may still get Riley Greene, Adley Rutschman and C.J Abrams this year. Or maybe more.

Coming Tomorrow- For Opening Day, one of those big guys in a new uniform.

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