The wild part about collecting and following baseball for 19 odd years has been seeing players that were active when I was finding my place in the baseball atmosphere now being discussed for Hall of Fame enshrinement. Virtually everyone on the current ballot was around when I was collecting, and a couple cases, namely Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence, began their careers the very year I started actively collecting new products. The first big shift was seeing Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas get in, cause those guys were just wrapping up their careers yet still loomed large. And then when Jeter, Halladay and Rivera got in it was a sense of seeing some of my heroes whose primes I witnessed firsthand getting immortalized.
And so now, we've reached a Hall of Fame ballot featuring guys who retired as recently as 2020. That's a sobering thought. We're beginning to run thin on guys from the 2000s, though at least two of them will be getting in today. We're also headed towards a bumper crop of surefire heroes of the 2010s, one of which is coming immediately next year and a few more of which will be first ballot submissions between 2028 and 2029. So this year is...ultimately another 'catch-up' year, with no first year standouts [the nearest HOF bet of the newcomers likely has to do another 5 or so years on the ballot in order to get the traction], and the majority of the votes going to two guys who have 'done their time', in a sense.
Like usual, I'll allow myself the usual guidelines of Hall of Fame voters, despite the fact that no one in their right minds would ever let me cast an actual ballot. I can go up to ten names, and I don't think I'll do all ten. Fundamentally, I've counted out anyone suspected of steroid use [even Andy Pettitte, sudden surge notwithstanding], and I've looked long and hard in order to separate the 'legendary' cases from the 'very good' cases. There are some people on this unofficial ballot that I didn't think were worthy until the case was made cumulatively, and there'll be people on this ballot that the case hasn't been made for yet but could come very soon.
So, as usual, we'll start with a tough sell that seems to be becoming less and less tough:
Bobby Abreu:
Last week when Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers, a lot of people I know were complaining about the size of the per-year dollars he'd be getting, a sign that teams are paying some guys more money than they really deserve, which I do think is an issue generally. But the line that was used was 'the Dodgers just spent 70 million a year for Bobby Abreu'. And like...that's kind of an insult to Bobby Abreu. Cause you're saying that if Abreu was around today he'd be one of the most valued players in the game. Because he played during the 2000s, and for a middling Phillies team for most of his career, it's impossible to make a case for Abreu as a game changer. But the way I look at it is that now that Tony Oliva and Dick Allen are in, two guys with consistent contact ability over a long period of time, without the 'omg' stats of their contemporaries, it's been proven that if you're a generational hitter with no atrophy for more than 5 or so years, there's a case to be made for you. Bobby Abreu had a 41.6 WAR from 1998 to 2004, with a .308 average, 1212 hits, 203 stolen bases and 3 100 RBI seasons. Frustratingly he didn't win his first gold glove or make his first All Star team til his 30s. The tell is that in his prime, I'd say with certainty that anybody would have wanted Abreu on their team, as the guy was a swiss army knife of usefulness. He's trending slightly upward this year, but I'm not sure if he'll have accumulated the votes by 2030. Still, can't deny what a great player he was.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
% Chance of 2025 Induction: 15%
% Chance of Eventual Induction: 50%
Carlos Beltran:
I think around 2013 or so, people were convinced that even if Beltran wasn't a first-ballot guy, he definitely had a chance. And this was in a period where even Adrian Beltre wasn't a lock. Carlos Beltran went from being a jack of all trades contact speedster in Kansas City to being a perennial playoff threat with the Astros, Mets and Cardinals. He finished his career with 435 home runs, 2725 hits, 7 100+ RBI seasons and, dubiously, a World Series ring. I completely agree with the stigma of the cheating robbing him of even a second or third year entry. But now it just seems like we're done kidding ourselves. The 2017 sign-stealing scandal was messed up, and there was a possibility he would have taken that mentality to the Mets in 2020. But, as opposed to the steroid abusers that have evaded induction, the sign-stealing takes only a year off of Beltran's career, and the worst year of his career at that. Taking 2017 out of the equation, he's still a Hall of Famer, and he's still a true 2000s legend.
Team of Induction: Kansas City Royals
% Chance of 2025 Induction: 98%
% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%
Cole Hamels:
You're gonna notice that there are a lot of 2008 Phillies on my ballot. There may be a slight bias, but at the same time, it's not like I did this for the 2009 Yankees. You never saw Alex Rodriguez on one of these, or Mark Teixeira, or Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett. Next year you're not gonna see Cano on here. But those 2000s Phillies teams had so many special, imitable guys that managed to have careers to match. Cole Hamels was one of them. Initially you may not read him as a wall-to-wall all-timer starter, but as many people have written about this year, the definition of the Hall of Fame starter has changed because nobody's starting 35 games a year anymore, nobody's going more than 6 innings and nobody's going as long without an injury as they used to. Cole Hamels is one of the last of that generation of consistent big game pitchers, because from 2007 to 2016, he was one of the most valuable pitchers in the game. During that run, Hamels had a 46.5 WAR, a 3.26 ERA, 1977 strikeouts, 127 games and 7 shutouts, including a no-hitter at Wrigley to cap off his Phillies career. Hamels had 7 postseason wins for the Phillies, including a shutout. and is in the rare breed of player to win NCLS MVP and World Series MVP in the same season. Cole Hamels isn't gonna go in this year, but I do think he has a case, and I think a lot of BBWAA voters have picked up on this as well.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
% Chance of 2025 Induction: 20%
% Chance of Eventual Induction: 72%
Felix Hernandez:
Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers of the 2010s. His contemporaries are all locks. Kershaw's getting in. Greinke's getting in. Sale is most likely getting in. deGrom might eventually. Felix, when he was on, was better than arguably all of them except for Kershaw. From 2007 to 2015, Hernandez had 127 wins, 1889 Ks and a 3.00 ERA. What a goshdarned run. Dude struck out 200 or more every year from '09 to '14. He won a Cy Young by just not allowing runs, and nearly won another one with a better Mariners team [Kluber kinda deserved it that year though]. The post-30 drop-off is real, but as I'm literally about to discuss, that's not a vote-killer anymore. It's looking like this year has greatly buttressed Felix's case, and he may be only a couple years away. In my opinion it can't come soon enough.
Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners
% Chance of 2025 Induction: 30%
% Chance of Eventual Induction: 80%
Andruw Jones:
The other 'we're done kidding ourselves' one this year. Andruw Jones, from 1996 to 2006, was the reason the Braves kept competing and making NLCSs, and the reason why the team didn't completely decay once Jones, Maddux and Glavine got older. You NEED a young guy who can do anything to come up right when your team's getting old, and Jones was that guy. Incredible defensive outfielder, incredible power hitter. In 2005 he had 51 homers and 128 RBIs, and this was after years of 30 homer/100 RBI campaigns. It was, almost like Jose Abreu, the 'cherry on top' season. And yes, it has been established that he completely hit a wall after 30, but the Hall of Fame doesn't seem to mind that anymore. As we're gonna see next year, the HOF can handle a small sample size if what happened during that run was top class, and I think now it's clear Jones was that good. Part of me thinks we needed the full case to develop, cause I certainly didn't think this when he came onto the ballot, but it's great that it's finally happened.
Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves
% Chance of 2025 Induction: 88%
% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%
Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins:
I have grouped these two together because they are both valid HOF cases for almost completely different reasons. Utley was overwhelmingly excellent for a 5 year period and coasted everything else off of that, while Rollins was steadily good for his whole 15 years and was nice enough, and level-headed enough, to let that do all of the work. The biggest argument towards Utley getting in, as of a month ago, is 'you idiots voted in Jeff Kent despite being replacement level for half his career and arguing with the whole league'. Chase Utley's biggest statistical serve is his 2005-2009 run, where he had a cumulative 39.7 WAR, a .301 average, 146 home runs and 875 hits. This was also during his '5 straight All Star Games' run, and the 2008 postseason is right in that range. Jeff Kent was league-leader-tier for a far shorter time than that and he's in now. Utley should be in. So what if he pissed people off? Apparently that's not a dealbreaker anymore. As for Rollins, he was a perennial all-star and gold-glover at SS, won an MVP in 2007 just by showing up everyday and contact-hitting like hell, has 470 career steals and 2455 career hits, and was an important, multifaceted piece of the Phillies for 15 years. He's probably the biggest reach of anybody on this ballot, but he was consistent, versatile and a clubhouse leader. Utley's more likely of the two to get in, but J-Rol should not be slept on.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
% Chance of 2025 Induction: (Utley) 72% (Rollins) 18%
% Chance of Eventual Induction: (Utley) 100% (Rollins) 45%
That's all I'm doing this year. Buehrle and K-Rod are on the line for me but not enough for 2026. I'm thinking Beltran and Jones are in and Utley will come close but fall just short.
