Better Beard

 So far we've got a guy with an XBH streak, a bunch of pitchers who go deep into games without allowing runs, several relievers with very low ERAs, and a few games Bryce Harper will be missing not due to injury, but because he's expecting a kid. And all the while we're 5+ games over .500 earlier than we have been in either of the years we made the NLCS. So suffice to say, great time to be a Phillies fan.

The way all of Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm are all playing is what we'd been wanting for them for a while. Turner has this insane extra base hit streak, in addition to an amazing .348 ERA and 31 hits. This is the Turner we signed up for, and this is the kind of season he gave to the Nats and Dodgers willingly. Turner has a place right in the heart of the Philly lineup, and I love seeing him come into his own. Marsh is equally dominant right now, hitting .288 with 13 RBIs and 5 homers. This is the more well rounded, contact-friendly season that I'm guessing the Angels wish they'd gotten to see more of. And then Bohm's actually mixing solid offensive play with some halfway decent defensive numbers this year, so he's on our good side for the moment. Could use something a little more from Bryson Stott, but he'll get there, probably.

The single most impressive thing about this Phillies team, to me, has been the degree of excellence coming from the starting rotation. I worried about Aaron Nola, as I think I have a right to at this point, but even he's evened things out to a 3.16 ERA, 3 wins and 26 Ks. He still gives up more runs that a lot of the rest of them, but when he's on, he's extremely handy. Wheeler's only 1-3, which is weird, but he's in peak shape, and is coming off a start where he went 7 or so innings without allowing a run. Cristopher Sanchez has been a pretty strong 5 man in the absence of Taijuan Walker, he's got a 2.53 ERA. And then you've got...y'know, Ranger Suarez and Spencer Turnbull, who've both been incredible through their first 4 starts and have ERAs lower than 2. I really hope both of them can keep it up, especially Turnbull, who's really good at being excellent for a good 10 starts and then getting injured.

The Phillies have been doing a lot correctly, but a lot has been thanks to an easy stretch of opponents. They've had the White Sox in town, and they're easy to make quick work of. The Rockies were in town before that, they were easy to beat. Now the Reds and Padres, who are a better degree of opponent, have to square up. And here is where things may get trickier for the Phillies, especially with the Mets creeping up. I do think the Phils have more to work with this season, and will eventually triumph, but it's going to take a lot of strong play in tougher matchups. Considering how long it took for the Phillies to even out, I do worry for the team, but with the degree I've seen from people like Ranger Suarez, Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh, I'm somewhat optimistic. 

Coming Tonight: The Mets passed on one of the best defensive players in the game to get a guy who's hitting .210 for them right now. That must smart, I think. 

AV Can Hit Now, Too

 

The theme of this Yankee team, at least in its first month, has been improvement. You've seen improvement from a lot of the pitchers we thought were cooked, like Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Luis Gil, as well as people who struggled at the plate last year, like Oswaldo Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. Just in the last few weeks you've seen Alex Verdugo begin to come into his own in the Bronx, and he's beginning to get the fan following he deserves. 

But most crucially, this season began with Anthony Volpe, who showed his fielding prowess last season without any offensive production, hitting like he should have been all along. I forget exactly how he conditioned himself but he fixed his swing and is hitting like a major leaguer, with a .288 average, 9 RBIs, 2 homers, 23 hits and 6 steals. Add that to continued success as a fielder and Volpe is looking like a well-rounded, versatile player. This is the guy who tore up the minors a few years ago and got prospectors really excited. To see him become one of the most crucial pieces of this team, in multiple senses, is really satisfying. It's also nice that this is happening underneath some of the already-proven successes. Like, this is a team with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole, and now in addition we have a top tier shortstop with killer contact numbers. It's a nice perk, I'll give ya that. Considering two players headed to the majors in the next year or so, it's nice that the farm system is delivering massive wins again.

The Yankees have been able to pull themselves out of some tight spaces earlier incarnations couldn't have imagined. The Yanks-Rays game the other day was tight all the way through, but Verdugo and Trevino clobbered the Rays' bullpen on 2 outs and were able to squeeze out of it. It's also been helpful having Clay Holmes in the ninth, as his league-leading 8 saves is a very interesting staff. Yes, they're not all going to be blowouts, but you'd think that Holmes wouldn't be the deciding factor as much as he is. Again, we'll see what happens once Judge and Rizzo really heat up, but it's definitely worth nothing. 

There have been some worrying details, most notably the fact that we couldn't get things going earlier today against the notoriously-bad Oakland A's. On one hand, yes, you try hitting Mason Miller, but J.P. Sears shouldn't be enough to keep people like Soto and Volpe at bay. I'm also not wild about the whole Boone thing. We're really past 'the emperor has no clothes' territory with this umping shit, and I'm tired of people passing it off as nothing. Boone isn't afraid to hold back, and if that makes him the enemy of the umpiring community, then fine. But it doesn't make them any more correct. The bullpen also worries me, they're not as strong as they were at season's open, and losing both Loiasiga and Nick Burdi is a bit distressing, but Victor Gonzalez, Ian Hamilton and Rob Marinaccio have continued to deliver great work. 

The Yankees have a scorching couple weeks without much of a break, and will have to play the Brewers, Orioles and Tigers, after 3 more from the A's. If they're still in 1st by the end of it I'll be pleasantly surprised. 

Coming Tomorrow- A man whose beard is always bushy, whose hair is always damp, and whose average is always higher than yours.

How The Boras Guys Are Doing

 

The story so far: this offseason, it took what seemed like forever for a ton of Scott Boras clients to find places to sign. The negotiating that Boras was doing, asking for huge contracts and not coming down, despite teams being more realistic about how much they wanted to spend, and for how long, on these guys, annoyed the hell out of the whole league. It got to the point where, after he signed, Jordan Montgomery went with a different agent. I think that teams, and players will be less prone to work with Boras going forward, though considering that he represents one of the biggest free agents of the 2025 offseason...hold onto your hats, folks.

But I thought it'd be interesting to look at those main 5 guys that Boras held til the last month of the offseason, and see how they're doing, if the shorter spring training period has affected their gameplay, if teams were right in holding out. 

Matt Chapman: The deal that Chapman signed with the Giants is a 1 year deal worth 20 million, with mutual options for the next three years, and judging by how he's been doing so far, I hope for the Giants' sake that Chapman enjoys his return to the Bay Area. Defensively, Chapman's still one of the best third baseman in the bigs, and he's fit in well with this infield. He's only hitting .224 with 12 RBIs and 4 homers, but it's still decent production. I think that Chapman's more likely to shoot for 25 homers these days than 35, and I think the Giants are aware of that; seeing that they have Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto, they're not 100% relying on Chapman for power. I do think that, of the Boras guys, Chapman has had the least amount of learning curve to the new location, though the hope is that his hitting numbers will heat up soon enough.

Blake Snell: Of all of these guys, I think this is the case where I get why the teams didn't completely go all in. Blake Snell is an excellent pitcher, and a Cy Young winner, but he's never been excellent multiple seasons in a row. He needs his comedown periods, and I think everyone's aware of it. Snell got 1 year 32 million from the Giants, with an option for Snell if he wants to stick around for 2025. Truthfully, it's because they don't know if Snell's 2024 will be a disappointment or not, and want to hedge their bets. And so...so far, it's looking like the Giants made the correct move. Blake Snell, through 3 starts, has an 11.57 ERA, an 0-3 record and a 1.971 WHIP. He's struck out 12 batters, so he can still do that, but people are hitting him more frequently than they did last season. Now, the case could be made that this wouldn't be happening if he had a full spring with the Giants to iron out the kinks, but...after last season, there's a chance he overexerted himself and needs a longer cooldown period, or perhaps another damned surgery. He could come back around, he could just need a few starts to adjust, but this isn't looking great.

Cody Bellinger: It was pretty clear that Bellinger was gonna end up back with the Cubs, it was just a matter of how long he'd be down for. Because of Boras' prattling they only got 1 year guaranteed with a couple options, for 30 million, and while it does prevent against Bellinger's 2023 being a fluke, it also makes this process repeat if Bellinger's 2024 goes well. So far, though, he's been purely alright, with 4 homers, 14 RBIs and a 0.3 WAR. Basically, he needs to have a few more really strong hitting weeks and he'll be 'back' in a sense. I'm not thinking he's reverted to how he was in his last few years in LA, at least not yet, but Bellinger is the kind of guy that could heat up out of nowhere. 

Jordan Montgomery: Gumby was the longest holdout, signing near the very end of Spring Training, and this saga ending in a 1-year, 25 million dollar deal with Arizona does explain why he eventually sought out different representation. Because of the late signing, he began the season in extended camp, made some minor league starts, and didn't make it up to the D-Backs til a few days ago. Thankfully, his first start for the team seemed to be indicative of his 2023 success, as he went 6 innings with a 1.50 ERA, allowing only 1 earned run and getting the win. Funnily enough, said debut was in a game against Blake Snell, who did not do as well. I'm thinking Montgomery got enough done in the minors to let the adjustment not completely psych him out, and he should be good going forward.

J.D. Martinez: The only one of the Boras guys that has yet to play this year, J.D. Martinez signed a minuscule by comparison 1 year, 12 million dollar deal with the Mets, went through a similar extended camp period to Montgomery, and because of some injury setbacks, has remained in Port St. Lucie. The Mets announced yesterday that they're hoping Martinez will be up with the club by the end of the week, and seeing as the injury to Francisco Alvarez has left them really needing a DH, it could come at a great time for the team. Time will tell if Martinez is worth his weight, and at 36, he hopefully has enough left to calm Mets fan concerns.

We'll see if these early periods have any effect on the full seasons of this group. It's looking good for Chapman and Montgomery at the moment, but you never know how things will fully develop.

Coming Tonight: At worst, he's still a gold-glove infielder. We're beginning to see him at his best. 

L.A. Reid

 

The Angels have evolved from their usual problem. Typically, the issue is that Mike Trout is playing really well and no one else is. Now, it's evolved to....Mike Trout, Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers and Taylor Ward are playing well, and no one else is. Which is an improvement.

The Angels' rotation for the past few years has been horrifically inconsistent. They'll get one or two guys working, and then they'll lose other people or somebody'll start giving up too many runs. The good news is that the Angels have Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano pitching well. Soriano had a great start today, he might be a rotation staple going forward. Anderson's more than making up for his weak 2023 with a 1.42 ERA in 4 starts. Detmers, though, is looking truly impressive, with a 3-0 record, a 1.19 ERA, 30 Ks a 0.975 WHIP. Detmers has struggled since his come-up, and has flirted with excellent material but has struggled to finish a season with something especially strong. This is the best Detmers has looked in a while, and the team would really appreciate it if he put in a full season of work this consistent.

I just think that it would be more appreciated, the work Detmers and Anderson have put in, if Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning were in any way holding it together this year. Canning has an 8.05 ERA right now. It's not as bad as Kyle Hendricks but it's not great. And the thing is, these guys have enough equity that it's easier to just wait for them to turn around. Which means the Angels have to stomach these poor starts and hope the offense can bail them out. 

And generally they can. Y'know, Trout, Ward, Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Sano honestly, they're putting in good work. Trout has 8 homers, it feels like vintage Trout. All the young guys they really want to rely on...aren't really playing well. And two of them are people who skipped minor league service time, Zach Neto and Logan Schanuel, and you never want someone to make a manager go 'well we should have kept them in the minors'. Schanuel's hitting .167, Neto's hitting .164. Mickey Moniak is similarly struggling. This is not what the Angels wanted after those guys helped out a great deal in the second half.

And that's honestly what the Angels feel like, a lot of the time: a house where after you fix one thing, three more things break down. Y'know, they have Trout playing well, the kids start hitting. They finally get Anthony Rendon on a tear, he gets hurt. It doesn't build on itself because things keep going wrong the second they're gonna build. 

The Angels are lucky that being 9-12 in April isn't enough for last in this division. The A's aren't doing very well either, and the Astros have no pitching. So they need to have some great games coming up to stay where they are, unless it'll go just about as well as the other Trout seasons in LA.

Coming Tomorrow- It took him a while to figure out where he was signing, and judging by his start to the season he picked a decent place.

Alternate Sho

 

...He does know you're allowed to give up runs over here, right?

It took until Game 4 of Shota Imanaga's MLB career before he gave up a run, to the Miami Marlins of all people. Until then, he was completely unbeatable out there, and kept opposing offenses at bay like a pro. Now that he's drawn blood, I don't think we should hold him in any less regard. In an era where great Japanese pitchers are blowing their arms out and not playing [Senga, Darvish and Ohtani are all hurt right now], it's nice to see someone try a different approach and just outthink people. Imanaga's 30, he's not like the Roki Sasaki child prodigy thing who can throw fire, he's got 18 or so strikeouts so far, and is mostly just winning by being dominant. It's not the Yu Darvish style that Cubs fans may be used to, but they certainly love this guy already, and he's already given them some big games before the first month of the season has even elapsed.

The Cubs have been doing a lot right this year so far, and Imanaga is just the biggest highlight. But there's a lot of other smaller bits of progress, like ensuring Adbert Alzolay's continued success in the ninth, procuring Miguel Amaya's promotion to starting catcher, and the rise of Michael Busch, a guy the Cubs weren't sure about when he came over from LA. Busch has been a mainstay at 1st base, is hitting .300 and has 6 homers and 17 RBIs already. And for the biggest offensive performance so far to come from a guy the Cubs were shrugging off in March...that says a lot. Yes, Bellinger, Swanson and Hoerner are performing well too, but they haven't fully taken off yet. Mostly, Swanson and Hoerner are getting accolades for their defense, which...should go without saying at this point.

And that's important for this team. I assume the hitting will fully take off sooner or later, but the defense and pitching has made this team a competitor. Imanaga has had Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Jameson Taillon by his side, with great starts from each. The only weak link in the rotation has been Kyle Hendricks, who's been...unsettlingly bad this year, in a way that's worried many fans. If Justin Steele's gonna be out for a while and Hendricks isn't gonna be the rock, it makes things a little more nerve racking. The next guy in line is Hayden Wesneski, and after last season he's not a surefire hit in the majors, much like Jordan Wicks at the moment. So thankfully the guys that are working have continued their success, and the bullpen has enough people like Mark Leiter Jr. and Keegan Thompson to provide solid work.

I think the issue right now is that the Cubs just aren't the overpowering favorites the Brewers are. The Brewers have shown success in power hitting, starting pitching, and tons of small stuff. The Cubs aren't there yet. But thankfully there's enough time for them to get there. Hopefully Imanaga can give them a few more awesome starts along the way.

Coming Tonight- It's a wonder the Angels have seen this guy mellow out after pitching a no-no so early in his career.

MINimalism

 

A Twins season where Carlos Correa and Max Kepler are hurt, and all of Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana, Edouard Julien, Christian Vazquez, Kyle Farmer and Manny Margot aren't hitting, and the majority of the rotation options aren't hitting? Not quote what was forecast.

The Twins have this sort of 'on again/off again' tone to them, a lot like the Panthers used to when Cam Newton was there. One year they'd be unbeatable and contend with the greats, the next year they'd fail to get off the ground and struggle to remain in the conversation. The Twins' inconsistency goes back to the mid-2010s, where they'd go from last to competitive 2nd back to last back to a wild card team. Last year was the highest peak in some time, not only winning the division but winning their first playoff series in decades. And considering the Twins' track record, the only way to go was down from there, apparently.

It's puzzling why so many of the team's most reliable pieces just haven't shown up this year. Buxton appears to be all healthy again, but he's hitting .197 with homers yet. Farmer only has 3 hits in 34 at bats. The only people hitting decently in this lineup are people like Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers and Austin Martin, none of which had been especially trusted to lead the team this year. Jeffers, at the very least, is proving he can be a consistent hard-hitting catcher, and has 11 RBIs and 3 homers so far. Him being the only person on this team with more than 10 RBIs is definitely an issue, but it's important that he can provide for this team when nobody else can.

I think this team can still rely on its big three starters, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, but even then they're just not as sharp as they've been in the past. Ober has been improving vastly over his last few starts, and had a great one today, but he's still got a bunch more to go before his ERA looks impressive. Joe Ryan is the best statistical arm they've got, but he's got a 3.57 ERA and an 0-1 record. There's some clear omissions in this pitching picture, like Jhoan Duran, Josh Winder and Justin Topa, that explain why things have gotten so diluted. Simeon Woods-Richardson did really well in his start recently, perhaps he should have a rotation spot instead of Chris Paddack, who's looking extremely burned out [despite his massive 2019]. 

The main issue is that previous years could have still allowed for the Twins to make this many mistakes. But this year the Guardians, Royals and Tigers are all good, and it makes the Twins' flaws stand out more. And it's even more worrying when the big players aren't showing up. I assume there will be a revival, and judging by today's work against Detroit it's definitely possible for this team to win big games this year, but it's gonna take a lot of under-the-radar guys to make it happen.

Coming Tomorrow- He-Seop Choi. Kosuke Fukudome. Kyuji Fujikawa. Tsuyoshi Wada. They all wish they could do for Chicago what this guy's been doing. 

Reverse Polarity

 

The 2024 New York Mets. 0-5 in their first 5 games, 10-3 in their next 13. Never a dull moment.

It's just as well, because this is a season where the New York Mets aren't entirely sure where they fit into things. There's already a two horse race between Atlanta and Philly, the Nats and Marlins have decided to be mediocre, and the Mets...had a lot to decide. Obviously they weren't going to lead outright like they did when all the contracts first got here, but would they commit to being terrible? And as it happens, no. They're not. They've won 6 of their last 7 games, all against teams over .500, including a sweep of the Pirates, who had a stellar first week of the season. 

But then you look around at this team, and you see a lot of high-price-tag players that haven't committed. Francisco Lindor's still not hitting. Brandon Nimmo's only hitting .217, despite 15 RBIs. McNeil and Alvarez aren't hitting. The biggest overwhelming pitching standout might be Jose Butto, who the team isn't sure whether or not he's legit yet. This is a perfectly alright team with some perks and a lot of dead space, and they're somehow playing like a great team.

Sometimes all it takes is one guy doing what he's supposed to, and in Queens this year, that guy is Pete Alonso. Very famously nearing the end of his initial contract, probably gonna be one of the biggest free agents of 2025, he's gonna hit his 200th home run in a matter of days probably, and he's gotten 3 100+ RBIs years and 3 40+ homer years by 29. Not many people can hit like Pete Alonso, and not many people can do it without stopping to breathe like he can. 

I just did some math. There's only one season he hasn't hit over 35 homers, and that's the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, where he hit 16 homers in 57 games. Using the simple math of proportions, I can reason that if the season had been full, Alonso would have hit 43 home runs in 152 games, meaning he wouldn't have ever played a season where he hit lower than 35 home runs, and his career total would be 27 higher at this point. I'm saying this because people...don't hit as ferociously as Pete Alonso as much anymore. It's important that somebody like him exists, because even the big hitters have down seasons. So far, Pete Alonso hasn't had one.

To this point in 2024, Alonso already has 6 home runs and 10 RBIs, while hitting .261. He's unquestionably one of the top pieces of this lineup, and one of their best players right now. So having Alonso hot, and hitting for power, still puts a team like the Mets ahead of a lot of equally-stacked teams. He's the x-factor guy, the kind of hitter that not everybody has. And even if the Mets don't have a ton this year, that puts them ahead of a lot of teams.

I have no idea how the Mets' season will shake out, or if Alonso will want to come back by the end of it, but him being there makes it a lot easier for the Mets to stay relevant. If he's hitting like he has been, and if he keeps doing that, you won't be able to count this team out.

Coming Tonight: A hard-hitting catcher who's trying to keep his team from sliding off the edge any further.