Championship Series' Day 4: Click.

 

Like the Yankees' win yesterday, the Dodgers' win tonight came down to someone who had taken the entire season to do what he'd made an entire career out of. And as likely as Anthony Rizzo's return to form was last night, Walker Buehler suddenly pitching 4 shutout innings after nearly costing the Dodgers the NLDS last week...was a little less likely. But just as welcome when it happened.

The Dodgers' game 3 victory was the culmination of everything this team had been trying to make work for the last few weeks, all at once. Kiké Hernandez in October, Tommy Edman as a contact machine, Muncy as an underrated power bat, the bullpen, Buehler, and especially Shohei Ohtani leading off. Like Judge, Ohtani has gotten a bit colder this October, but his 3-run homer was a great confirmation of the Dodgers' dominance. Buehler went 4 strong with 6 Ks, with none of the shakiness we'd seen this season. It was a full team effort, and one that felt satisfying to watch.

The Mets, meanwhile, got their ego knocked down a bit, with Luis Severino getting roughed up, the lineup shrugging, and Garrett and Megill didn't exactly keep the fort strong. Even if Francisco Lindor is doing frigging cartwheels in the infield, nothing's gonna get done if people like Francisco Alvarez get a golden sombrero at the plate. This team felt so shockingly volatile in Game 2, and now they're de-energized again. They do have Jose Quintana up for Game 4, which should be a bit more reliable, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who's coming off a commanding start against the Padres, will be on the mound. It won't be a gimme by any means.

Part of me thinks there's a chance the Mets tie it up, but tonight is letting me know this may not be as evenly matched as I previously thought. 

Also, tomorrow the Yanks hit Cleveland. Schmidt v. Boyd. We'll see how that goes for them as well.

Championship Series' Day 3: Rizzo's Redemption

 

Getting Anthony Rizzo back for the Guardians' series, as one of the few members of the team who've had any prior postseason success against Cleveland, was the ultimate blessing for the Yankees. The 1st base question that held the team back against Kansas City was solved, the veteran presence was restored, and after all that missed time Anthony Rizzo was finally good at baseball again.

The Yankees' Game 2 victory was a really promising one for several reasons. It is still worrying that our base running is so dire, and Weaver giving up a homer to Ramirez is a sign we should be cautious with him, but...instead of being another net win like Game 1 we actually took the steps this game. Game 1 was lost due to some wild pitches by Cleveland, and while this game had some terrible defensive plays throughout, it wasn't a gimme. The Yankees' offense not only got to Tanner Bibee, the Guardians' best starter, but to SEVERAL members of the to-date immaculate Cleveland bullpen. Hunter Gaddis gave up a home run to Aaron Judge, one the whole borough must have heard. Erik Sabrowski was responsible for the majority of the midgame rally. Even Cade Smith could only do so much to quell this team.

Gleyber Torres, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm and ESPECIALLY Anthony Rizzo all had great nights. Rizzo was responsible for the late RBI double that helped the Yankees cement the lead [before Judge ripped the game open]. Already the veteran 1st baseman has had an excellent ALCS, and is on track to become one of the most important Yankees of this postseason. And while Gerrit Cole did get a little dicey around innings 4 and 5, he was strong in the first few, and stifled the Guardians enough to prevent them from tying the game. The only trouble the 'pen got into was Ramirez late, but by that point it was mostly just frosting.

The Yankees, through 2 games of this ALCS, look extremely good. Thursday night in Cleveland it'll likely be Clarke Schmidt against Matt Boyd. On paper that's a game we can win, but nothing is ever simple with these Guardians teams. And if I get too comfortable now I could be into a world of pain if the Guards figure us out soon. So I'm just enjoying the moment, and hoping the Yanks can keep building on it. 

Championship Series' Day 2: In and Out of the City

 

The Dodgers this postseason only look good when they've got an actual accomplished starting pitcher to rally behind. So with Jack Flaherty on his game, they can attack. You take that away and throw in a reliever game...it may not go as well. 

And so, the Mets lineup had no trouble with the Dodgers when it was just Landon Knack standing in the way between them and glory. Flaherty they had to wait around to get him off the mound. Knack? The party commenced. Lindor had a huge hit, Tyrone Taylor had a huge hit, then after Lindor got walked VIENTOS had a huge hit. And all while Sean Manaea continued his incredible postseason run, his sweeper perfected and his credibility restored. Doing all of this in LA, and making the Dodgers look powerless even after what they did yesterday, is a huge serve, and it could be a hint that this series may not be as one-sided as the pundits are giving off. If the Mets can do this, and if the Dodgers' pitching arsenal is limited this year [eventually they're gonna have to go with Buehler again], the Mets may be alright after all.

In his first full, healthy season in New York, Carlos Rodon has flirted with greatness but hasn't completely committed. He went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA and 195 Ks in 32 starts, his fullest and winningest season to date, but he also gave up more home runs than ever before, and wasn't quite as dominant as his 2021-22 peak. He showed moments of greatness but not the full idea of it. Even in postseason starts to this point, Rodon would strike a lot of people out but get lit up at some point.

Which is why it's such a welcome surprise that Rodon, having been given the ball for Game 1 as Cole rests from the ALDS, absolutely dominated the Guardians tonight. He struck out 9, only gave up 1 run, and looked completely on throughout the start. Comparatively, Alex Cobb struggled, loading the bases for Joey Cantillo, which led to multiple runs scoring on wild pitches. That is not something you want happening in the postseason, and those passed balls were the difference maker for the Guardians. Because both teams gave up the same amount of hits, six of them, and both teams fought back with long balls and RBIs. But after the Yankees took the lead on the passed balls, there really was no catching them.

The Guardians not only lost what could have been a close game, they lost it on rookie mistakes. And now they go into a Game 2 against Gerrit Cole, who's been very good this postseason, handing the ball to Tanner Bibee, who's arguably been better. This could be the kind of competitive, back-and-forth game we were all expecting for Game 1. 

Championship Series' Day 1: On Rushing and Not Rushing

 

The Dodgers were low on starting pitching midyear, so they traded for Jack Flaherty. The Mets were low on starting pitching in October, so they activated Kodai Senga and hoped for the best. And for everything I've said about the Dodgers' snakebitten rotation, and the number of people that have gone down in important moments...they never pushed any of them. Walker Buehler slowly made his way back and he's been doing better. Kershaw wasn't rushed back to the active roster, at least not yet. There was no effort to wake up Gonsolin or May or Glasnow for the playoffs. 

Which may explain why Flaherty went 7 strong for his strongest postseason start ever and Senga got chased while only throwing ten strikes. The Dodgers didn't want to force anyone to pitch before they were healthy. The Mets weren't going to wait for Senga to be sure, they needed a sure bet. And so, Dodgers 1, Mets 0. By 9 runs. 

It's more complex than Flaherty, as excellent as he is. The Dodgers' lineup was lovely tonight, with Ohtani, Muncy, Freeman and Betts having huge moments, and the scoreless streak continuing thanks to Blake Treinen and Ben Casparius, whoever that is. As limp as the Dodgers could seem during some moments in the Padres' series, they seem revitalized, confident and hungry now. And thus, this Dodgers-Mets series is looking...like what someone could have guessed it'd be around May. It can always turn around, and there's still at least 3 more games to see if the Mets are gonna respond, but at this moment it's looking like the Dodgers are going to be very difficult to beat.

Tomorrow, we see if the road to the Payroll Bowl becomes any more likely, or if Cleveland has other ideas.

Division Series' Day 8: The Playoffs Aren't Broken!

 

We're really going into a week of Championship Series' where three of the teams are actual division leaders who overcame first round byes. Which means this playoff season can actually fully complete whatever story was being told in the regular season, rather than suddenly go 'and then Arizona got good and beat everybody' or 'and then all these worthy teams were mowed down by a Houston team that wasn't as good as the last three'.

Even better that both of these teams started the series' landing in win-or-die formation first, and both of them clawed their way back and into the next round. It could have been easy to succumb to the inevitable, but the Dodgers and Guardians refused, and fought off lethal opposition to advance.

The Dodgers' series win happened because of a few unrelated factors. Yes, the Padres went cold for two games, that just can't happened. But the heart of what makes the Dodgers lethal postseason opponents abruptly woke up. The first blow of the night came from Enrique Hernandez, off of former Dodgers postseason disappointment Yu Darvish, who reminded everyone of how incredible he can be in the postseason. Then Teoscar Hernandez cracked another one. And it was the strength of the Dodgers bullpen that carried this team to an NLCS, regardless of how likely a Padres win was at several points. 

On one hand, the Dodgers are now going to an NLCS with a limited rotation strategy, but because of Betts, Freeman and Ohtani's work thus far, they're still the favorite.

The Guardians meanwhile had to truly fight for their win, as the series they had with the Tigers was so evenly matched that it could flip at any moment. Two comparable bullpens, two comparable scrappy lineups. Today seemed difficult for the Guardians, as Tarik Skubal was on the mound, and for a while that was enough. But Skubal got tired, the Guardians' lineup got restless, and pretty soon Lane Thomas was grand slamming everyone home. Thomas was the undisputed hero today, being responsible for 5 of the team's 7 runs, and cementing his status as one of the power pillars of this team. And while Cleveland's rotation prospered, Detroit's further deteriorated, meaning Emmanuel Clase, still bitter over his blow earlier in the week, got to be the hero again.

The Guardians went into a series as the favorite and came out by the skin of their teeth. As they head into New York they're the underdog. At this rate, they may not be for long.

As for who we're bidding adieu to..

I really thought the Padres were going back this year. At their peak they were deadly, and their October energy really made me think they'd have enough to outdo the Dodgers. They just picked the wrong time to go cold. Even Xander Bogaerts, who was having a pretty decent series, couldn't get anything done last night. I get that momentum only lasts so long in the playoffs these days, but I really thought the Padres had figured it out. Fortunately, I do think this team has enough to still compete next year, with a still young core that could keep the rest of the division at bay for a while.

The 2024 Tigers were an incredibly fun baseball story, a team that went from zero to hero, defied the odds and became postseason titans when nobody thought they would. There was always going to be an ending to this story, it was only a matter of when. Let's be real, if this lasted all the way to a World Series win, Rob Manfred would be doing some meddling to make sure it never happened again. The Tigers were powered by momentum and Tarik Skubal, and once an opponent could figure out how to beat both of those factors, they were cooked. Still, there was so much that impressed me about this team, including the young, anonymous stars like Parker Meadows, Tyler Holton, Wenceel Perez, Trey Sweeney and somehow catcher Jake Rogers, who got a lot done this series despite struggling during the regular season. Will they be back in full force in 2025? Who knows. If they can turn this into the competitive run fans have been waiting for from them, that'd be pretty cool, but in this division nothing's guaranteed.

Mets-Dodgers kicks off tomorrow. The Haves vs. The Haves...who until recently Had Not [Been Good]. Should be interesting either way. 

Division Series' Day 6: The Script Flips

 

As it turns out, if you complain enough that people aren't showing up, they eventually do. And that's how we get a Game-5-forcing Guardians win led by David Fry, Jose Ramirez and Emmanuel Clase. You complain enough, and they eventually start hitting.

The Tigers have been more of a match for the Guardians than anybody thought, and with Reese Olson, Trey Sweeney and Riley Greene providing cover for most of the game, it was getting slightly worrying that the Guardians wouldn't be able to offer up a rebuttal, once again. I'm still worried about the power of the first round bye, and the Guardians are the kind of team that I figured was better than the bye slump. And if the Tigers won this game, I'd be drafting a letter to Rob Manfred that he'd no doubt be throwing straight into the shredder. So thankfully, this soon became the David Fry game at the expense of the Guardians' bullpen.

The Guardians are a great team, and they could definitely go deep if they're able to get past Game 5. Now...I used to be more definite that they WOULD be able to hop this hurdle, and with the Tigers starting Tarik Skubal in Game 5 it may be way more difficult for them to do so, but I still favor Cleveland. If they lose, take your pick, you can blame it on the bye or you can blame it on Skubal. 

The last time the Yankees were in the ALCS with a team that was not the Houston Astros was 2012, 12 years ago. It came after a very tight ALDS with Baltimore that, quite frankly, we shouldn't have won. By the end of that we were exhausted, and had no energy left. There is a very big chance that the Yankees' first ALCS in 12 years could be against the very team that swept us then, the Detroit Tigers. This is, however, a very different Tigers team. Much younger, much scrappier, much more unpredictable. And the thing is that even if the Guardians make it instead, that's also a scrappy, young, unpredictable team as well. So either way, it will not be easy to win our first ALCS in 15 years. 

But I think about how tense those first two games were against the Royals in New York. It was neck and neck, biting back and forth. And then I think about these two in Kansas City. Close, but manageable. It took us time, but we figured them out, thanks to great pitching from Clarke Schmidt and Gerrit Cole, and great offensive work from Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto. Once Luke Weaver closed the door, the haze lifted, and this team waltzed to homefield advantage in an Astros-less ALCS. I couldn't believe it in a sense, but seeing as the Royals were a tough but still beatable opponent, I'm happy it came that easy to us.

The bye tried to hold the Yankees back, and it couldn't. We'll see how they do against whoever comes out on top in Cleveland this weekend. But I'm excited for the prospect of a Yankee team that *could* go further, for once.

Somebody inevitably had to be the bridesmaid in this AL Central scuffle, and it needed to be someone like the Royals. They had a wonderful season, finally succeeding where other Matt Quatraro teams had failed and running into the playoffs, then taking down Baltimore. They had great moments in this series, courtesy of people like Cole Ragans, Salvador Perez, Michael Massey and Vinnie Pasquantino. Even tonight, Tommy Pham still went 3 for 3, with three solid hits. Even when this team is down, somebody like Pham keeps chasing, which is EXACTLY WHY YOU GET SOMEONE LIKE PHAM. 

The Royals will be back with a vengeance next year, hopefully with a fully healed Pasquatch, a more October-ready bullpen, and possibly even a bigger year from Witt? The sky seems to be the limit. 

Tomorrow, we get to see who'll be hosting the Mets next week. I still think it'll be San Diego but you can never quite count the Dodgers out, can you?

Division Series' Day 5: Who Forgot to Show Up

 

...Is this really gonna be so simple? The Tigers are really cornering the Guardians with Game 4 at home?? This is what it's coming down to?

I didn't really think this series was gonna go like this. Twice now the Guardians have failed to show up in the runs column, and it's to the detriment of more great pitching. Ramirez, Thomas, Kwan, Naylor...aren't really having great series'. The Tigers just ran their bullpen again today and they couldn't get through that. Which means the Tigers are within inches of getting to a Championship Series with literally ONE STARTER to their name. Remember, we criticized the Diamondbacks last year for having two. This is just Tarik Skubal and the rest. Jeez.

The Tigers are winning this series because their scrappy, small-baller lineup just keeps coming through for them. Tonight Spencer Torkelson had the hero moment, lengthening the lead late. Torkelson is in his third season and is now FINALLY beginning to figure out this whole 'hitting at an MLB level' thing, and the Tigers must be thankful it's happening in the postseason. 

The Tigers could close it out tomorrow. How wild is that? I don't think the Guardians are gonna make it that easy for them, but...you never know at this rate.

I think this Mets-Phillies series was just a matter of how well you handle the pressure of success. Neither of these teams performs well as the overachiever. The Mets spent the last few years, thanks to Steve Cohen, as the alpha of the division, overspending in order to achieve something, which left them...nowhere. So after Cohen's most modest offseason, where all he really did was bring on a few small pieces in J.D. Martinez, Harrison Bader, Sean Manaea and Jose Iglesias, the Mets finally achieved their full form. They were never gonna win it all from the top. They had to become the underdog. And they had to do it by beating the alpha, and then the second alpha, of the division. 

The Mets beat the Phillies because for the first time this decade, the Phillies were no longer the underdogs. They had to be the favorite. And they couldn't do that. They always work better from behind. And so, the Mets kicked their asses. All they needed tonight was a grandy from Francisco Lindor and another surprise dominant start, this one coming from Jose Quintana. The bullpen held it down, Diaz signed it and mailed it. And just like that, the Mets are back in the NLCS for the first time since 2015, and we all know how that went. I'm honestly really happy with this team, and I kinda wanna see how far this goes now.

Year 1 of the Phillies taking the first round bye. Didn't go well, did it, Rob?

The issue here is that this team peaked in June. Usually the Phillies peak in, like, October. But this year they wanted to try being good from the start of the season, and that's not really sustainable to win championships anymore. So I think, if the Phillies are gonna suck at any point in the year next year, it probably should be April or May, y'know, just get it out of the way. So you can do what all the young, hip teams are doing and just spontaneously become good midyear and take that to the end.

I'm...a little frustrated. Because with everything this team has accomplished and accumulated, you'd think they'd have figured out how to leg it out by now. The worst version of this team got the furthest. It is all about conserving momentum, and it gets harder and harder for the Phillies to do this every year. It was especially hard for them with the first round bye. By the end, only little hits, Kody Clemens pinch hit shit and Ranger Suarez getting out of tough situations were keeping this team alive. And against a Mets team with this much momentum, that is not enough.

Next year's team needs to learn from this. This could have been the year. And we decided to not let that happen. 

This Royals-Yankees series has been inconsistent, back-and-forth, all over the place and completely nebulous. Luckily, Giancarlo Stanton is inevitable.

The Yankees aren't completely wowing me yet this postseason. They've had good moments, but Judge has gone cold, first base has been inconsistent and the starters have been human. But what I can say about the Yankees that I can't say about the Phillies is that the Yankees have shown up. When they needed to tonight, the bullpen jumped into action and Stanton went yard. This was a Schmidt against Lugo game, one that very easily could have gone Kansas City's way, but we outlasted them, and we somehow took a series lead over a team that's amassed all this momentum.

If the Yankees slay the Royals, they slay the first round bye. Nobody can do that. But maybe we can. Cole up tomorrow. Maybe it'll be our night. 

When it became clear that the Dodgers were putting up a 'pen game against Dylan Cease, I kinda figured the Padres were advancing tonight. Except that didn't happen. The Dodgers' bullpen held the Padres to 7 hits and no runs. 8 guys got up there and none of them gave up a run. Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda, Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Landon Knack and Alex Vesia all got up there and did exactly what they were supposed to do. And, as such, since no starter got lit up, the Dodgers just needed to hit, and that's exactly what they did. Mookie Betts had a big night, Max Muncy had a big night, Will Smith and Gavin Lux. This was the kind of full team performance we were waiting for, and against the still-tough Padres bullpen as well.

This series goes to a Game 5 in LA, and that's gonna be a tight matchup. I still think San Diego miiiight have the edge, but you can never count out the Dodgers' lineup. This one could be separated by inches.

Some AL series' could end tomorrow. I think only one will, but I don't know if it'll be the one I'm hoping does.