Division Series' Day 5: Three Endings and One Second Act

 

Second consecutive section of the playoffs where three series' leave the other one hanging.

The sugarplums have faded a bit in Chicago. They all thought the sweep was possible and then they remember, 'oh right, we've only got one good starter and a bunch of guys we'd rather have do 3 innings of relief'. And so Game 3 was a 9-3 Cleveland victory, because they had Foster Griffin for most of the game and he did more than Davis Martin, Noah Schultz or David Sandlin could.

It's very relieving that the Guardians' lineup finally showed up, as people worried they wouldn't [I mean what kind of team would just refuse to hit in a postseason series after dominating offensively all season, right?]. Kwan, Ramirez, Adell, Rocchio and Angel Genao all had excellent plate appearances, and J-Ram quieted any worry he'd be an ineffective postseason piece this year with that game-deciding 2-run triple. 

The White Sox are still in prime position, but they need to cling onto that momentum before the Guardians force a Game 5. 

So the Dodgers are going to another NLCS, and they did it behind their fourth man, who'd really be their second man if injuries hadn't happened. Tyler Glasnow was very good, only giving up one run, and making the work easy for the bullpen. Max Muncy and Andy Pages continued their strong postseasons. They made this one look pretty simple honestly, because they have contingency plans for everything. I'm not calling them a lock for the World Series right now, but it is looking likelier than it was a couple weeks ago, even with their NLCS opponent looking pretty strong.

As for the Braves...I think the first hint that this wasn't the team was that it took them 3 games to eliminate the Phillies when, if they were at their peak, it would have taken them two.

The tragedy about the Braves is that the highlights of this team were so high [Baldwin, Sale, Olson] that once you look below them you see how little depth there was this year. Tyler Mahle was a crucial postseason starter because Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep were nowhere to be found this year. Guys like Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas were novel ideas that went nowhere. The season came down to Raisel Iglesias, and they've had better versions of him.

Next year they're more likely to compete than Philly, but I don't necessarily think they'll run unopposed. 

The Rays are tough, man. They solidified themselves as a World Series threat in this series, and are the team to beat going forward. The ALCS will go through Tampa, either top starter remaining hasn't had the luck Drew Rasmussen has, and Caminero's only just begun. Though Victor Mesa Jr. will be linked to the controversial overturned home run call from this game, his homer in the sixth sealed the game and ensured the sweep would happen. A guy like Mesa, who was an insanely cheap preseason pickup for Tampa this year, has made this team pop as much as people like Ryan Vilade, Bryan Baker, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Martinez had. It's the usual Rays-ball mentality of putting the best people in position to succeed, regardless of how much they're making, and it may get them a franchise-first ring. 

That does mean that of the AL candidates, the most recent World Series winner remaining is the Chicago White Sox. Let's keep in mind for a second that the Brewers have never one won, and we really only have one recent W.S. winner remaining at all...and I think you can see where I'll be rooting from here on out. 

I'm running out of things to say in Octobers about this team, guys. Every year 'this is the team', every year 'look at them go', and every year 'what happened?' 

Is it really the case of the Red Sox being so out of steam that they were that easy for the Yanks to beat, and the Rays were so good that none of that production could be mustered? Or did the Yankees once again completely stop working once they got to the division series round? Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and Austin Wells didn't get that memo though, as they all had terrific series. Anthony Volpe also did a nice amount, though in a just world that homer isn't overturned and the Rays run out of good relievers before we do. Ultimately the stamina was not there. Back in the day we didn't have an extra month of the season, it was like two weeks, and some teams are way better at prepping a team for seven months than others. The Yankees are absolutely shit at it. If this was the old playoff bracket they'd have enough momentum to last but they tap out around this time of year every time, and they're not getting any better. It's not 2006 anymore, this isn't sustainable. 

Next year, Judge will be healthy, Jones and Lombard will be everyday options, and Schlittler, Fried, Cole and Rodon will all be healthy and ready to go. If the owners waste what could be a terrific Yankees year before the Yankees themselves can, I'll be pretty mad. 

Anyway, we knew the Brewers had the edge in this series, but man this one was competitive. Back and forth, lead changes, lots of heroes on both sides. That the Brewers pulled it out should not be a knock on SD, they had a great series but just weren't the better team. Robert Gasser was able to be the hero in a start, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 run. He's not as flashy as Miz and Henderson, but he gets the job done. Once again Chourio was the hero, but Sal Frelick and especially Garrett Mitchell had some big moments. 

The Brewers once again have to go through LA to make it to a World Series. But now they can win on the road, and they'll be starting in Milwaukee. And this team's even better than last year's. I think that NLCS could go all seven, and the Dodgers may not have the lay up they had last year.

Again, the Padres tried, and they could have advanced had it not been for a really strong opponent. They did a lot with some gaping holes, and having only 1 real viable postseason starter kind of did them in ultimately. I also think having to put guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor high in the lineup illuminated the lack of real depth unfortunately. Not to knock Samad Taylor, he had a nice season this year and may have finally found a place he can stick around. But Samad Taylor is not Jake Bauers, or Garrett Mitchell, or Joey Ortiz. I assume they will probably be in the mix next year, but the D-Backs will probably want revenge again.

Tonight we see if the White Sox can close things out. I kinda hope they do.

Division Series' Day 2: All The Right Moves

 

If the Brewers sweep, or win, this series it's not gonna do the Padres' efforts justice. Especially in Game 2. They have been fighting just as hard, and have not been getting the luck. They got production from Luis Campusano, Ty France and some bizarre Brett Harris mumbo-jumbo. And keep in mind, this is a team that bats Brett Harris, whoever he is, and Samad Taylor within the first four spots, and they're still right there in it. The Brewers, as it happens, just seem to be better.

I don't really blame Mason Miller for what happened, although honestly I probably should. Miller has been lights-out all year, he could have evened the series, things got sloppy and the wonder-kid made him regret it. I just think that the Brewers just have the guys for every situation in ways the Padres don't. Christian Yelich is not prime Christian Yelich, but he can still smoke a double and get home thanks to Sal Frelick's similar contact material. David Hamilton had an incredible game yesterday, both defensively and on the base paths, and the Padres really don't have a utility guy like that. And yes, Cooper Pratt made an oopsie that led to a run, but he's also 21 and coming into his own. 

Jackson Chourio right now is how Ronald Acuna thinks he should be viewed. Everything Acuna wants to be, aside from that 2023 season, Chourio is. Multi-tool, clutch, offensive machine, unstoppable. Chourio has been the deciding factor in both games. Not in a way where I feel like he's carrying the team, in a way where everybody's showing up AND Chourio can still be the hero.

Bobby Gasser for Game 3? Shane Drohan? Gasser, Drohan and Harrison piled on top of each other? Considering the Padres are going with a bullpen game probably, the Brewers might still have the edge as they go to sweep. 

All the people who showed up for Randy Dobnak being an Uber-driver losing against the Yankees 7 years ago need to be showing up for Ray Kerr being a former 7-11 worker who's opened in long relief and shut down both the Phillies and Dodgers' offenses. Ray Kerr took some minor league stints to completely reframe his strategy, made some late appearances for the Braves and had a 1.47 ERA. And now he's their go-to opener for bullpen games and has allowed zero runs, three hits and struck out six. Last night he was going against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, and none of them got home with him on the mound. Similarly, Didier Fuentes went three innings without allowing a hit in late relief, and only gave up that dinger to Muncy when Weiss figured he was good for a fourth. Granted...until Muncy he was looking for the 12-out save, but, y'know, that shit is hard. 

It says so much that guys like Ray Kerr, Didier Fuentes Grant Holmes and Mauricio Dubon can triumph over Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, with the money they're making. The little guy can still win out, even if...yes, Michael Harris was the big hero for the Braves, and he's still making a great deal of money [he is Money Mike, after all], as he deserves to. Evening this series with a good starter on the mound for LA was a big leverage move for the Braves, as they go into a Game 3 with Yoshinobu Yamamoto [HOW WELL ARE YOU DOING IF YOSHI IS YOUR #3??]. Chris Sale will be on the mound. He's been unstoppable thus far. I hope he keeps it up.

Today we've got some AL games. Kinda pulling for Chicago but not as hard as I am for New York, for Milwaukee and against the Dodgers [sorry, I just want a more interesting outcome this year, and I see the irony of me saying that while still supporting the Yanks]. 

Wild Card Series' Day 3: All That For Nothing

 

This is what the Phillies do that makes it so frustrating. They take an unwinnable situation, a foregone conclusion, 'okay, the Braves are the way better team, they will win', and they give you the illusion of hope. Making this a three game series was exactly that. It could have been cut and dry for the Braves but we legged it out to Game 3, made them trot out Chris Sale and Grant Holmes, and made them really work for a win they already kinda had. All the while they just make you think it was possible. You know, somebody could come alive, somebody could get to the other pitching staff. And then the exact thing you were preparing for from the jump happens anyway and you get worked up over nothing. 

Unsurprisingly, the Braves were the better team. Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Matt Olson all hit crucial home runs in spots they were supposed to. The bullpen could leg out the game, Ray Kerr could have a terrific opening performance, and Chris Sale was around to finish it off. Even Grant Holmes was decent in a mid-game run. Everyone who was in position to succeed did so, and cemented a win that, to be honest, should have been cemented last game. But still, the Braves get to go to LA and potentially upset the defending champs, and make for a pretty evenly-matched NLDS matchup. I'm fine with it.

The Phils, for a team that could not hit, did so much to combat the obvious issue. They got a batting addition and two bullpen additions, none of whom made the playoff roster. They got Derek Hill and Bryan de la Cruz for nothing, and they became surprisingly nice presences on the team. Everyone who was sucking in May got a September boost, like Aaron Nola, Bryson Stott, Andrew Painter and Alec Bohm. And Schwarber and Harper kept hitting homers. Unfortunately, the Trea Turner contract is becoming a horse around our necks, the bullpen still couldn't get through a damn thing, and the Braves were simply the better team. It was nice we legged it out, and Derek Hill hitting a triple this game makes me think he can be useful going forward, but...this was not the Phils' finest hour, and very well might be the death nell of the Harper era. But who knows, maybe Alex Cora can bring us back next year.

Friday I can actually catch my breath, but Saturday we've got ALDSs. I've got one team I love still in the race, plus three teams who've never won a World Series plus the Guardians who haven't won since the Truman administration, and the White Sox who I'd love to see do well. Obviously there's one spot in the championship series' reserved for a perennial figure, thanks to the Dodgers-Braves series, but there's still room for spontaneity in all the other ones. Kinda pulling for a Brewers-Yanks series but am fine with virtually everything but Dodgers-Rays. 

Wild Card Series' Day 1: Close and Not Close

 

Okay, let's just...temper ourselves, first of all. The Phillies aren't playing like a playoff team. They haven't since like August. They got in due to some luck, don't have much hitting energy left, never really did to begin with, and have the same issues, including bullpen troubles, as always. The Braves are the better team, the Phillies needed to find moments to best them in between their own troubles, and while they did...the decision to let Jhoan Duran face Michael Harris was the one that did them in. I think they were trying to do a Dave Roberts management thing, putting in the best pitcher rather than the most logical one. It's what Roberts does with starters in the postseason. Mattingly did it with the one good reliever he has, just plopping him down and hoping he does enough of the work to chill down the core. It worked for 1 and 2/3rds innings, and then it backfired.

Austin Riley's 3-run bomb shouldn't be diminished, as it's a huge moment to save a season that was in danger of falling off, nor should the offensive work from Ozzie Albies and Mike Yastrzemski. The truth of the matter is the Phils had Atlanta on the ropes, they made what they thought was the best decision, with their best reliever, and they lost the game because they thought they were better off with one more Duran batter than any other reliever, which would make sense had he not faced five already. If Bowlan goes in, I think there's still a chance we win that game.

It comes down to Cristopher Sanchez today. If for some reason he locks in and we tie the series...I still don't think we're taking it because the Braves are simply a better team. Yesterday at least proved we can move the needle a little if we're not busy getting in our own way.

I think it was fitting that the game between two also-rans without terrific records was a bullpen game. Unfortunately for the Astros, that already left them at a disadvantage, as their bullpen's been quite terrible this year, and that Bryan King was the first to flinch isn't shocking at all. The White Sox are capable of this sort of contact energy when the other guys aren't looking, and without a Lambert or a Brown to fall back on, the Astros were leveled and, frankly, human.

Also, this being a bullpen game may have fooled the Astros into a sense of security, because Hagen Smith is technically a reliever, but since he came up midyear the Sox have been slowly stretching out his innings and trusting him with more and more responsibility. The idea, I assume, is to let him start next year [something that will be welcome considering how many Sox guys may have overexerted themselves this year], and so this being an extended opener spot for Smith sort of turned into a preview of that. Smith went three innings, gave up 2 hits and no earned runs. Credit to Grant Taylor, Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin for the assist. It's wild that Jordan Hicks seemed to regain his mojo as the year went on, and is back to being a strong spot guy. 

Anyway, Sox are up 1-0, and are very close to doing what twenty earlier incarnations of the team could not [win a playoff series]. I will be rooting for them.

Anyway, uh...this one was nice, wasn't it? 

I'm being very careful because the Sox could absolutely come back, but...them landing in the playoffs after burning through the goodwill in 2 months and robbing themselves of Alex Cora, then coming back and going wild...that's a win in and of itself. That's a moral victory. Payton Tolle having a strong enough start on his own merits, that's a big win. Everything else was essentially as expected. The bullpen did not hold up, the lineup shuddered at the prospect of rising to the occasion, Roman Anthony's likely hurt again, and Brayan Bello's back to square one. 

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a highlight reel tonight. Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches and allowed 2 hits, a walk and ten strikeouts. George Lombard went 3 for 4 with 2 runs. Austin Wells went 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs. Spencer Jones had a big hit and scored 2 runs. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber were untouchable. And Ben Rice made up for the lack of Aaron Judge by hitting TWO big home runs, one to pad the lead and another in the eighth, a grandy, to make this a foregone conclusion. Rice has had a HUGE season, and continues to be a spark plug as a power bat. 

Fried vs. Gray next. Would love the Yanks to close this one out, but when have the Sox ever made it easy?

And finally...JEEEEEEZ.

I kinda figured the Padres would have the edge just for the sake of their momentum vs. the Cubs's, but my GOD. The Cubs barely showed up. Their choice for top starter, Matt Boyd, is in the midst of a recovery year and didn't hold down the Padres well at all, giving up home runs to Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, the marquee guys. The bullpen didn't do a heck of a lot better, and when you've gotta throw Assad and Civale out there instead of specialists, they're gonna make mistakes. Altogether the Cubs had three hits in this game. Only one was off of Michael King, who was absolutely electric, going 7 strong and striking out 8. The other two were off of returning hero Joe Musgrove, who did well enough for his return to the mound. Two of the hits were from Nico Hoerner, the other was from Seiya Suzuki, meaning PCA, Bregman, Swanson and Happ could not get a single thing done. 

The Yanks bodying the Sox behind Schlittler was something you may have predicted, but this absolute shellacking the Padres performed? Maybe the Dodgers were commanding so much of the narrative that nobody was really noticing the Padres get hot. And now they have the leverage, the home crowd and the pitching edge, with Nick Pivetta looking to seal the deal today against a down Kevin Gausman season. Can the Cubs respond? 

I'm thinking at least two series' end today. I'd love to have three, but that would imply the Astros are gonna lay down and die, and they really never do that when I want them to.

Frequent Shoppers

 
Right now is the Rays-Braves series, a series between two teams who are in 1st place, and would both like to remain in first place. Honestly if they're jogging in place this series to ensure they both don't really change pace at all, don't be shocked.

It's nice, because both of these teams were responsible for some of the most savvy deadline deals of the year. The Rays inquired about Liam Hicks, as the Marlins had 2 other catchers, and a deal was worked out, and suddenly the Rays got to add one of the best contact hitters in the game. Hicks has been a smashing success, hitting .313 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Hicks is lethal against righties, he's not a bad catcher and he's easy to fit into the lineup. The Rays already have Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero in their arsenal, and Hicks has made them even stronger. I caught him homering last month, that was pretty nice. Also I love the players' weekend canada catcher's gear he had, that was really cool. The Rays have Hicks as the primary catcher and Nick Fortes as the secondary with defensive perks. That seems to be working.

Meanwhile, the Braves needed pitching help, got turned down by Jacob deGrom, and took a flyer on Tyler Mahle, who's been good but is always injury-prone. The Giants bit, and while the Mahle deal seemed odd at first, it made more sense the more games Mahle saw in Atlanta. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.24 ERA, a 1.5 WAR, 35 Ks and 2 wins. A lot of the Braves starters this year, in lieu of the young talent that was supposed to be here, have been craftsman, veterans and tricksters, and to have an actual strong, hard-throwing pitcher again is nice. It can't all be the Chris Sale show, he needed another real arm, and Mahle is that. The move was made to strengthen the rotation, and Mahle very much did, even if A.J. Smith Shawver hasn't been very good recently. 

And it's the little moves as well that have been impressive for both teams. Brent Suter's been used by the Braves in long relief and has been wonderful, with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings. Similarly, Tyler Wells was brought on by the Rays to be a 2-inning guy, and he's been great, with a 2-0 record, a 1.69 ERA and 16 Ks in as many innings. The only real sour note has been Freddy Peralta, and even HE'S given the Rays some nice starts after his rough early period wrapped up. He's not Brewers good, but he appears to be building, and I think he's capable of some nice October starts.

Both teams are on a pretty decent trajectory at the moment. The Rays are having some trouble, and have the Yankees coming up from behind, but have Caminero sailing and the bench providing excellent support. They have to play the Astros next [after they're done making things easier for the Braves], and that should be interesting. The Braves, after splitting the Phils series, are on slightly thinner ice, and now have the Phils again once they're done with the Rays. Acuna may be riding high after those late theatrics this weekend, but Olson's struggling, Dubon's errors are adding up, and the black hole at shortstop isn't getting any fuller. Both of these teams will still make the playoffs with ample seeds, but they need to ensure that after this series, the slipping stops and the division title can be brought home. It won't be easy, but they've made enough of the rest of this season.

Coming Tonight: The Guardians have needed catching help for years. I did not think this would be the solution. 

Keeping Distance

 
As I write this, both the Braves and the Rays, who've been leading their respective divisions for the majority of the summer, now have a competitor 3.5 games behind them. Both teams have lost a ton of ground in the last few weeks. The Rays dropped 5 of 7 games to the Orioles, one of which I was in attendance for and was truly glorious. The Braves are 6-10 since the start of the Yankees series back on August 7th, and despite a nice showing last night against the Dodgers, are in danger of being lapped. 

Of the two, the Braves probably have the better team, or moreover the one with better infrastructure. The current incarnation of the team has Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Murphy and A.J. Smith-Shawver all healthy, for once. Now, forget for a moment that none of them are playing especially well. The infrastructure is still there. Mike Yastrzemski and Lane Thomas are all on hand to prevent against Acuna getting hurt again. Jim Jarvis just went down but something tells me he'll be back soon enough to buttress Dubon and Kim. The point of getting Tyler Mahle was to ensure that A.J. Smith-Shawver wasn't gonna overtax himself trying to be that strong fifth man, and Mahle's honestly been a better answer, he's 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 23 Ks in 4 starts, better arguably than his Giants numbers. 

I did get to see Ronald Acuna hit a homer a few weeks ago. It was during a loss. So him doing his flapping his arms schtick and clowning around, even during a loss, that doesn't work as well. That works when they're all playing well as a unit, or when Acuna's having a 40-70 season or something, but not when he's trying to salvage another mid year. It's clear he's still a great talent but he's not consistent. Every year either he's gonna give you gold or hobble through half the season and be alright for the rest of it. This year he's not the main takeaway from this Braves team, Baldwin and Olson are. And I'm not sure how he is with that.

The Rays, meanwhile, came into prominence after steadily climbing the division and going on a streak once the Yankees went cold. They've sustained the momentum for most of the season, but they're 4-7 since the A's series ended [along with a 9 game winning streak], and 5 of those games, as discussed, came at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The other two came from another division rival, the Blue Jays, so it really just adds insult to injury. Freddy Peralta's still struggling like he did in New York, the bullpen's beginning to turn again despite Bryan Baker leading the league in saves with 38 [he did give up the double to Dylan Beavers that sunk the game I went to though], Aranda and Diaz are beginning to calm down a tad, and the magic of late June through July may be wearing off. 

I want to stress that there's still a lot that works about this Rays team though. Getting Liam Hicks was a really savvy decision, as he's an excellent contact hitter that went yard when I was in Baltimore. He's not a great catcher, but he hits better than Nick Fortes does. Ryan Vilade is a big, well-built truck of a man who isn't terrific in right but hits pretty well, with 11 homers and 37 RBIs. He's somewhat limited but he's a great role player, a lot like Jonny DeLuca honestly. Chandler Simpson is leading the AL in steals with 35, and he leads it in triples with 6, though still no home runs. And of course, Junior Caminero's having another phenomenal year, with 35 homers and 84 RBIs. The man is a star.

Here's what I'll say, regarding who gets caught. The Yankees have a higher probability of catching the Rays than the Phillies have of catching the Braves, because the Phillies have forgotten they're a baseball team more often than the Yankees have. The Yanks just got Cody Bellinger back, Max Fried should be on the way, and they're gonna keep getting stronger. The Phillies had a nice week back there but now they're waking up the Mariners and some of the same issues are still at play. I still think the Braves are a better team than the Phillies, and the Dodgers series is proving it. The Yankees might be on the same level as the Rays, and could get very close to lapping them if current trends hold. 

Coming Tonight: One of the most consistent hitters of the decade in a Cleveland team that, need I remind you, has also had Jose Ramirez on it. 

Too Close for Comfort

 

We just had a Yanks-Braves series that was as close as a series between two competitive, surging teams should be. Every game was a question mark til the very end. Two went the Yankees' way, one went the Braves, and two of the three were denoted with a horde of terrible umpiring.

I was at the game on Saturday, which, fun fact, was also Old Timer's Day. Fun event as per usual. Hideki Matsui can still rake, Brian Doyle can still hustle, Mariano Rivera can still throw. Once the Braves and Yankees got on, it got slightly less fun because the guy who was umping was likely legally blind and taking it out on everyone else. Dan Merzel is this guy's name, and he seems to be a younger call-up, so it's weird that he's acting up now. It's like becoming the lowest-rated photo editor the year after Adobe Photoshop was released. Like, if you're gonna be obsolete, be good.

Among the things this guy did wrong was giving Spencer Jones an HBP when the ball didn't even touch him, penalizing Austin Wells because Jose Caballero took too long getting to first, being so hard to follow that the Braves lost both their challenges on one play, and some general tomfoolery that the Yanks were thankfully able to call him on. The most egregious crap came against Chris Sale, who Merzel first called a balk on to score a run, which got both Sale AND Walt Weiss yelling at him [Weiss was ejected]. Then before game 3, Chris Sale allegedly made a motion towards Merzel as he entered the field, and was ejected, perhaps because Merzel had waited 24 hours for a reason to eject Sale. This asshole really made the whole game about himself, which is unbelievable.

Now, what was fascinating was seeing someone like Jose Caballero contend with Merzel, because Caballero's antics have been pissing off everyone this year. A friend of mine's getting into baseball, and caught a game in the Bronx last month, and even he was getting annoyed at Cabby's pitch clock violations. Dude just lives in his own universe, a lot like Jazz Chisholm. The good news is, Cabby's been excellent for us, with 12 homers and 41 RBIs, plus 28 steals. He's a really handy guy to have around, and hits way more than your average Taylor Walls type utility man. He's just a little annoying sometimes, and it's better that one of those guys is with us rather than against us. 

That aside, the game went pretty damn well. Ben Rice hit a bomb, his 32nd. I got to see George Lombard Jr.'s second career homer, plus some exceptional infield work at short. Spencer Jones is looking very MLB ready all of the sudden, and Paul Goldschmidt is still excellent against lefties. Plus, Gerrit Cole looked like his old self, shutting down the Braves save for some small ball here and there. Ronald Acuna Jr. also remembered to show up, and hit a solo shot against Brent Headrick, though his shenanigans came off as pretty crass as well. 

The Braves winning yesterday, and keeping every game close, tells me how durable they are even with a slight slide in the last few weeks, and some messy work against the Mets tonight. They still have a terrific power core of Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies and a lesser but still noteworthy Ronald Acuna performance. They also now have Martin Perez as a very viable rotation option, with 7 wins, a 3.14 ERA and 78 Ks, proving that 35 year olds on the Braves this decade can't be counted out. And the bullpen's still excellent as well, with so many really impressive pieces keeping this team together. They're at 71 wins, still feel like a lock for first, and probably won't even let this New York stretch slow them down.

In conclusion, glad I was able to catch a nice, tight, exciting matchup between these two teams. Last time I did, the Braves had this guy on the mound that killed us, some guy named Max Fried. Hopefully he doesn't have to play the Yankees anymore..

Coming Tomorrow- His team may have taken a huge hit in the last week, but after 13 years of this, he's not about to take it sitting down.

Find Grant

[First of all, to the MLB intern who did a Game Changer tribute post on twitter, including a 'Count the Ben Rice' and 'Find Grant Holmes', may you be rewarded for your niche interests. Game Changer, for those of you who aren't aware...oh god that's all of you, and it's a lot to explain. Consult your nearest weird nephew I guess. But it's a good thing. I swear.]

Grant Holmes becoming a household-ish name is not something I'd have predicted. I pulled a card of him out of 2015 Pro Debut, this schtarker of a Dodgers minor leaguer with a massive afro looking larger than anyone else on the field. And I'm going 'this is what counts for a Dodgers prospect these days? Ookay.' And of all the prospects from that set that didn't make the majors, he was at least one of the more notable ones. You don't forget a Grant Holmes. I genuinely thought he was Australian. Nah, just large. But he stuck around the minors for a decade, becoming a fixture of the A's double-A and triple-A teams, then right as he was getting the hang of things the pandemic happened, as did some strain concerns. He was cut in mid-2022, picked up by the Braves and kept as a minor league piece, eventually making the majors, at last, in 2024 at age 28. And from there it only got better, as Holmes' availability became his saving grace, as his low-velocity, leverage-friendly stuff kept him from missing much time, and gave him a fair amount of playing time compared to the other, more injury-prone Braves starters.

Holmes is now 30, and he's having his fullest season to date, with a 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks and a 6-4 record in 18 starts. It's not flashy [the Braves have Chris Sale for that] but it is efficient. He's gotten into some trouble fairly recently, especially the later he goes in games, but he's enough of a rock that the Braves don't have to worry too greatly. It's very odd that guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez have provided more stability to this rotation than Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Huston Waldrep. That's how good the Braves are this year, they did well with a rotation of Chris Sale and some scrubs essentially. And now things are kind of turning around and it's possible that they're gonna need a fuller, younger rotation to keep the Phillies and Marlins away.

Thankfully this team still has Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris playing beautifully, and Ronald Acuna should be back fairly soon. The team also seems to have found their everyday shortstop, as Jim Jarvis, the guy they got from the Tigers last year for Rafael Montero, is batting .292 in 15 games and already is becoming a fan favorite. Austin Riley finally seems to be heating up, Mike Yastrzemski is providing great insurance as a depth outfielder, and the bullpen currently holds three of the most dangerous relievers in the game right now. It's a well-rounded team that's gotten over its June swoon and is still staying ahead of the Phils [who, luckily for the Braves, had to play the defending champions this week]. 

It's a team that can utilize Grant Holmes prominently and it's still a good team. I kinda love that.

Coming Tomorrow- He was supposed to be the ace of his current rotation. That hasn't really happened, but he's still a pretty strong arm on there.

Getting his Due-bon

 

Here is a list of some people that Mauricio Dubon has been traded for before becoming an actual starting infielder, in his age-32 season, after 8 years in the bigs.

• Tyler Thornburg, a Brewers relief asset who was traded immediately before requiring surgery and barely playing any healthy games for the team, the Sox, he was traded to.
• Drew Pomeranz, who actually benefitted from a trade to Milwaukee that year.
• Michael Papierski, a guy who no one had thought of before or since.
• Nick Allen, the major league baseball equivalent of how Danny DeVito described himself in Twins ["you're telling me that I'm the leftover crap???"]

It took a WHILE for Mauricio Dubon to find a fit. It somehow didn't happen with the Giants, because right as he was about to take 2nd in 2020, Donovan Solano had an incredible breakout year. He tried to break in with the Astros, but most of the time he was stuck behind Jose Altuve or Jeremy Pena, resorting to being a backup. With Houston he developed such a fan following, even as a utility man, that the fans were upset when the team traded him. Luckily, things worked themselves out, Ha-Seong Kim got injured, and the stage was set for Dubon to get his just desserts.

Dubon as the Braves' starting shortstop has worked extremely well. He's been great on defense, AND he's got 44 RBIs and 8 homers. Offense was never the main emphasis with Dubon, but on a team like this you can't blame him for trying to blend in. Him and Ozzie Albies make an impeccable double play combo, and there's even a chance he squeezes onto the ASG roster. I'm really happy he's become a nice part of this team, and joined so many guys [Harris, Albies, Baldwin, Olson I guess] who are time-tested and proven in Atlanta. This team can still take newcomers to the fold. It seems to have worked with Dominic Smith as well.

Ultimately, though the Braves are heading into July a little worse for wear than expected. They went 10-14 this month, and the losses of Ronald Acuna, Robert Suarez and Spencer Strider might have something to do with it. They got Baldwin back mid-month, but he's gone insanely cold, and has only started hitting again fairly recently. Elder, Holmes and Perez have skidded a little in the last month, as...honestly expected. The team is still good, and still has the pieces to compete, but the Phillies just keep creeping up, and it may come to a boil in the next month if the Braves don't regain momentum.

I do have some hope for this Braves team. Until June, they had so much going for them, and when good they're better than anybody, even the Dodgers. They could get back there if they wanted, and I hope they do.

Coming Tonight: The top closer in baseball is a hard-throwing specialist from Cleveland, and somehow it's a different one than usual. 

The Same Ozz it Was

 

There's a lot thrown around these days about which teams and players certain deities prefer over others, and I just want to say that the Braves losing 8-1 to the Mets, then turning around, regaining Drake Baldwin and getting to play the San Francisco Giants right on the heels of their 'half the pitching staff think standing up to Pride Night is akin to casting out Satan' run...that's cosmic retribution. You have the story of good men getting back up after a stunning loss and going to take down the true evil, the evil of intolerance, and that's something right out of a Sunday reading, isn't it? 

[I don't like saying stuff like this on the blog, but Landen Roupp and company are going right on my boycott list, along with the Rays who sat out Pride Night years ago and Blake Treinen. I can't believe I'm saying this, but these guys should be more like Josh Hader.]

Anyway, the Braves. Just when you think you've figured them out you get better. Alright, Strider's hurt, they're getting to Elder, well...alright, Hurston Waldrep's back this week probably, Martin Perez is surprisingly awesome, and they still have to face Chris Sale. There's a 35 and a 37 year old on this team who can throw better than most of the 28-year-olds the Giants have. And plus, here's Drake Baldwin again, continuing his plate vendetta from the first month and a half of the season.

The Braves are this good because they've laid the groundwork by placing all these people who can play well around their team, and they all are! They brought Matt Olson in to be a positive successor to Freddie Freeman, and he's been somehow better in points, with 20 homers and 51 RBIs already. Ozzie Albies has struggled the last couple years but he's back in full force now, hitting .279 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs, some of his most pivotal offense work in a while. Michael Harris II's also a .300 hitter now, he's got 14 homers and 41 RBIs, numbers he's only hinted at before. Mauricio Dubon and Dominic Smith have become excellent everyday players after being mostly bench guys for years. Even Jorge Mateo's having a comeback year as a bench piece, with 7 steals already. Losing Acuna is a rough development, but this team's been through that before. And gaining back Baldwin now is a really good thing. Because with this team, Baldwin was harder to replace than Acuna. A few weeks without Ronnie and they can throw Eli White back there, or Mateo even, and they'll be fine. A month or so without Drake and they were STRUGGLING. Sandy Leon had to be the main guy. Austin Wynns got thrown in there. It'd have been nice if Sean Murphy was around but I guess he's not that guy anymore. 

Even without Acuna, the Braves' offense remains one of the best in baseball, and so many of these guys can catch you off guard and do something incredible. And on top of that the bullpen's damn near untouchable and Sale's having another Cy Young caliber season. Even after a rough weekend, the Braves are still the best in the biz, and with Baldwin back they're even better. Cannot be disputed. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Rays gave up on him, he made them regret it in a different market. As is becoming the norm these days..

Sale On

 

Since joining the NL for the first time in 2024, Chris Sale has yet to finish a season with an ERA higher than 2.60. His Cy Young season in '24 had a 2.38 ERA. Through 11 2026 games, he has a 2.01 ERA. All of this on what the Red Sox assumed was borrowed time.

Not that it's been enjoyable as of late, but if you wanted to check how the returns for Sale are doing in Boston right now, well...Vaughn Grissom's not even in Boston. He's currently a utility guy in Anaheim. Meaning once again, the Red Sox traded a big piece for prospects that couldn't even stick around long enough to help them do anything. No wonder the fans want John Henry to sell. 

Though we all thought the Jack McDowell comparisons would do him in, Chris Sale has become one of the most reliable pitchers of the 'K-or-nothing' era of baseball. This year, Sale's on track to reach 2700 career strikeouts, and his career ERA still sits below 3. He's also on pace to crack 60 career WAR, and he recently notched his 150th career win. Obviously nobody can do what Nolan Ryan did and overthrow for 25 years anymore, but Sale has maintained so much success just by consistently whizzing past people. So far he has 80 Ks this year, and on a Braves team where the next-nearest strikeout artist is trying to stay healthy and the other two everyday guys are leverage/control guys who don't throw hard, it's positively refreshing. The 2025 Braves went in banking on the high-speed guy like Sale, and then Schwellenbach and Lopez got hurt, Sale missed a third of the season and it was up to Holmes and Elder to keep the lights on. Now that the approach has been altered and it's less geared around the overthrowing, Sale can just do what he does and there's plenty of fallbacks.

The failsafes are one of the reasons the Braves are still a league superpower. Last year they got cut with their pants down because they were unprepared for the majority of the pitching staff getting hurt. Now they have swing options. J.R. Ritchie gave it a go, and while it didn't work, he was able to swing out when Strider came back. Martin Perez went from an in-camp maybe to one of the most unexpected rotation weapons in Atlanta, with a 2.70 ERA and 40 Ks in 11 games, proving he truly is the Venezuelan counterpart to Charlie Morton. Mauricio Dubon was the replacement for Ha-Seong Kim at short, and Dubon's been so good even after Kim's return that the position continues to be his. The one thing they couldn't really predict was losing both Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, meaning Chadwick Tromp is now the starting catching option for the Braves, and Sandy Leon is closing in on him. If this wasn't a really good Braves team with so many other great starring performances, it'd be worrying. But Baldwin'll be back soon, and it's not breaking the team.

There's so much depth to this team, and so many successful seasons, that another star performance from Chris Sale just feels like the cherry on top. I hope they keep at it, as they really could chase the Dodgers for the league championship this year.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who was traded for Tommy Edman, who's honestly doing a much better job than he would have, and is still looking to win the trade with his new, rebuilding team.

Everyday People

 

I remember back when it was news that Freddy Galvis hadn't missed a game from 2016 to mid-2019, and that was the extent of the streak. Remember Freddy Galvis? Good couple years back there, decent Phils infielder. Seems kinda silly now that we've got Matt Olson, who hasn't missed a game since 2021. Since Olson got to Atlanta he's not missed a game. Meaning after losing their 1st baseman since 2011, the Braves then got a first baseman...who literally plays everyday. And does so while hitting 40 or so homers.

This is the beauty of these Braves teams. It's the right kind of layering of talent, in that it's not egregious, it's not overspending the rest of the league. It's calling up great players and extending them, then signing great free agents in their prime, and picking the right guys to perpetuate the cycle. People have gotten mad about this team letting some key pieces go [Freeman, Fried, Swanson, William Contreras], but considering all the great players they've retained it's hard to be completely mad. They signed Olson early and since then he's been absolutely wonderful. Right now he's got a 1.019 OPS, a league leading 37 RBIs, 14 homers and a .294 average. He's on track for another terrific season, and could notch yet another 25+ homer year [he's already accumulated seven of those]. Recently Olson hit his 300th career homer, and at only 32 he's put together some underrated numbers, much like his former Oakland battery mate Matt Chapman. The Braves have some truly excellent players, and Olson, out of all of them, might be the one they're luckiest to have.

Especially considering that Ronald Acuna Jr. is once again injured. The good news is that Ronnie is not the 'magic hat' guy he seemed to be last year, as there's enough roster depth to stay ahead of every else. Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Matt Olson still make this an elite lineup, and getting Ha-Seong Kim back certainly helps, despite how well Mauricio Dubon has done in his stead. Baldwin continues to be one of the best pure power hitters in the game, already at 10 homers and 37 RBIs. Dom Smith has been a surprisingly powerful DH bat, hitting .363 with 18 RBIs and 4 homers. I did not expect this guy to positively replace Ozuna but I guess being low-budget occasionally pays off. 

Also paying off is the stagnated, unconventional rotation tactic. People like Martin Perez, Reynaldo Lopez and J.R. Ritchie have swung in and out as needed, and activating key pieces has not obstructed the rhythm of the unit. Spencer Strider's looking decent 2 starts later, he's only allowed 3 runs and struck out 14. Perez has been the surprise, still in excellent condition at 34 and so capable in middle relief that he's back to starting. Meanwhile, Elder, Sale and Holmes have been strong at the top but you knew that. Sale's got 56 Ks by throwing smoke, Elder's got 53 Ks from pitch selection. Both tactics are working.

A lot's going right for the Braves right now. The other 4 NL East teams all struggling has helped as well, but so much has clicked, and though there's still time for things to falter, I've got a really good vibe about how this team's flowing. And having [to date] FOUR everyday guys certainly helps.

Coming Tomorrow- The future of his team has shifted, and he's got to do what he can to keep things on track. Unfortunately, all he can do right now is power hit adequately. 

Elder Buried

 

I dunno if I'm ever gonna be able to figure out Bryce Elder. Cause either he's a dominant, forceful fly-ball pitcher with a low K rating, or he can't keep runs down to save his life. There's something very classic about Elder, he just stays up there and stays in long enough to get the job done, no real 100mph stuff. Sometimes that results in an ASG appearance and a low ERA, and sometimes that results in everybody killing him at the plate and nobody taking him seriously. I suppose it's connected to how viable the Braves' offense is, cause Elder was great when the Braves were good, and last year when the Braves struggled he was subpar. 

So anyway, the Braves are good again and Bryce Elder has a 0.77 ERA through 4 starts. I dunno if it's gonna make sense, I just know that it's a good thing.

The Braves' rotation has this 'handle with care' quality to it, because it hinges on four guys who throw hard and get injured more often than not. If Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep didn't overthrow and run the risk of missing time, they'd be able to accomplish more and potentially win more titles. But this is the life they've chosen. So the Braves now have to stack the pitching staff with supplanting options that don't overthrow. Reynaldo Lopez is one of them, and after a lost 2025 he's back in full force, with a 2.18 ERA in 4 starts. Grant Holmes has been very reliable, and durable, in a swing role, and so far while his ERA is closer to 4 than he'd like, he's still a valid innings eater. Even 35-year-old Martin Perez has joined in on the fun, with 4 games of pure dominance and a 2.21 ERA despite only 10 strikeouts. 

If the team has the leverage and the pitcher can stay on, control guys like Elder and Holmes can still be valuable pieces. It's actually a very efficient strategy, one that I'm really interested to see morph once some more starting options return. Strider and Waldrep should be back soon, and they're gonna want to get Didier Fuentes more starts at some point [unless they mean to dangle him for an upgrade]. 

That level of pitching depth combined with a ferocious lineup has made the Braves a definite standout so far. Nobody wants to go up against a team where Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Dominic Smith are not only hitting but surging. Dominic Smith has gone from a handy fill-in in SF to a genuine DH standout, with 4 homers and 16 RBIs in 17 games. Baldwin's a power hitter who's also hitting .304 right now, he's everything you want. Mauricio Dubon might just be the guy going forward at short, with apologies to Ha-Seong Kim. Only guy that isn't really hitting is Yaz, but it's early.

Now that the Braves have sufficiently embarrassed the Phillies, they now get to play Washington for four games and arrive home in time for the Phillies to have hopefully remembered how to play baseball. It's looking extremely good for the start of the Walt Weiss regime in Atlanta, and I reckon it's about to get even better. Cause Acuña's barely even woken up yet.

Coming Tomorrow- He was drafted 1st overall, and was thought to be the first piece of a legendary youth movement. It didn't work out 100% as planned, but he's still a very important piece of their next act.

Nothing Was The Same

 

To be perfectly honest, the Braves' first two weeks would have been a success if they'd gotten through without their top 4 bursting into flames, but starting 6-4 given everyone that's already been injured is a very good sign. They're without Schwellenbach, Strider and Waldrep, and Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, for a bit, and they have to proceed with a less confident rotation and a slightly compromised defensive schematic. It's a good thing they're the Atlanta Braves, though.

First of all, I owe Drake Baldwin an apology. Last year I was not convinced he would be in any way a non-negotiable factor for the league, as his rookie campaign was merely above-average to me rather than game-changing. I thought it was nonsensical for the Braves to go ahead with a new catcher considering that they already had Sean Murphy, and I simply thought Cade Horton was a more impactful addition to a roster. However, Cade Horton's missing time with some arm issues and Drake Baldwin is one of the most explosive hitters in the game right now. So at the moment it's looking like I was misinformed. Baldwin is currently hitting .300 with 4 homers and 12 RBIs, both league leading, and is far and away leading the Braves right now, in the stead of both Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, who haven't really started hitting yet. Even factoring in some of the usual suspects, like Matt Olson, and Michael Harris, Baldwin's accomplished the most for this offense so far.

But the organization's emphasis on stocking the deck has made for some excellent replacement-level decisions that are already benefitting the team. Mauricio Dubon was dealt by the Astros for reasons that are still somewhat hazy, but Kim's injury means he gets to start at shortstop everyday, and he's done an excellent job of that, while continuing his contact excellence from Houston. Dominic Smith was brought in as a potential bench option but has fielded the majority of DH starts, and has 2 home runs and a walk-off under his belt. Even Jorge Mateo is coming to life as a bench bat. This team is well-built enough to withstand lapses, which very much counters the excuse from 2025.

Now, the pitching is still sort of problematic, because without those young arms the back end of the rotation are guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez. But even they're not too bad. Elder's yet to allow an earned run this year, and has kept balls mostly in play. Perhaps his issues of the last two years are finally behind him? Holmes is also still pretty good, albeit not especially flashy. I think the goal is to eventually work Didier Fuentes up to starting, and he was decent in a long relief outing but evidently not ready yet. They at least have Chris Sale and Reynaldo Perez in excellent shape. Very much supports the theory that after pitching a full season of grade A work, most starters should likely take the following season off. 

The 'pen looks good, the depth is there, the production is there. There's a few guys in the lineup who aren't all the way back yet, but it's early. As it stands right now, the Braves are looking better than they have in a couple years, and may be a factor in the NL East again. Let's just see if they can keep it going.

Coming Tonight: When your #9 hitter is doing the brunt of the work, something needs to be reassessed. 

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Braves

 

I remember watching a Spring Training game at the Braves' complex way back in March. And I think about the vibes I got from that game, and how excited all the Braves fans were for this season. There was an interview with newly-acquired Jurickson Profar, who was happy to be out of San Diego and was ready to compete some more, there was all this talk about the team's depth and versatility. It was looking like they'd be a favorite to overtake the Phillies and battle the Mets for the top.

That's...not exactly what happened. Which makes it all the more astonishing that it all looked so good heading into the year.

Three hitters made more than 150 games, and of the three, only one of them had a WAR higher than 3. No pitchers made all 32 starts, and the one with the most innings still had a 5.30 ERA. The team's two Cy Young candidates in June were both injured by August. Acuna was once again the magic hat. The guy who won Rookie of the Year is the kind of player that makes their highest-paid-catcher-in-baseball completely obsolete. And by the time the team actually got things going, it was September, and they were already out of contention. Everything that could go wrong 100% did this year, resulting in a 4th place finish below .500, and the end of the Brian Snitker era in Atlanta. The Braves will no doubt be back next year, with former shortstop Walt Weiss taking up the mantle of manager, and many injured players set to return at peak capacity. But this was a brutal blow to a team that had consistently one of the best in the game since 2019. 

Profar is the best summation of what went wrong. He came off his best season to date, an All-Star year with San Diego, and was primed to play a similar role with this Braves team. Then right as the season began, Profar tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, putting his entire 2024 comeback into a different light, and taking him out for the majority of the season. In his place, the Braves had to throw people like Alex Verdugo, Bryan de la Cruz and Stuart Fairchild into left, which did not work at all. Profar eventually returned to play 80 games this year, and hit .245 with 14 homers and 43 RBIs, which was decent, but not quite what was advertised.

2026 Prediction: Profar becomes Robinson Cano in New York- will be fine, but every good stretch will come with that question mark. Eventually it'll become too much for the Braves to bear, but perhaps not until 2027.

Sean Murphy began the year as the Braves' total catching option, after Travis d'Arnaud left in free agency, and ended the year...as Travis d'Arnaud, an overpaid burden blocking a younger and better catcher. Murphy was actually pretty good this year, with 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 94 games, plus some excellent defense, but he's a .199 hitter now. And when you've got Drake Baldwin, who's better at contact work even at the expense of the defense, you're gonna stand out in the wrong ways. 

2026 Prediction: Is traded pre-season. Does decently but doesn't match 2023. 

With Sale and Schwellenbach missing time, Strider coming in late, Lopez missing the whole season and Holmes bowing out late, Bryce Elder was the Braves' longest-standing starter, despite multiple attempts to demote him or move him to the bullpen. All in all, Elder's season wasn't great, as he posted a 5.30 ERA, and an 8-11 record, but as a rare Braves starter to stay healthy all year, Elder was in high demand all season and needed to be in every fifth day, due to lack of other options for the most part. 

2026 Prediction: Either his arm gives out again or he actually figures his shit out and has a bounce-back full season.

With all the vacancies and injuries, this also meant there was a serious demand for 10-year minor league veteran Grant Holmes, who'd been waiting for this moment for a while. Holmes had some MLB appearances last season, but as a swingman. Now there were rotation spots open, and Holmes responded with one of the best Braves pitching seasons of the year. The 29-year-old had a 3.99 ERA with 123 Ks, despite a 4-9 record due to the diluted lineup. Ultimately he'd also join the field of several injured Braves starters in August.

2026 Prediction: Once he's back, he may not have much of a chance to start, so back to long relief and swing roles.

The lack of starting options also meant it was time for oft-injured prospect A.J. Smith-Shawver to try again for his case at a permanent spot. In 9 starts he went 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 42 Ks, then, once again, the injuries struck.

2026 Prediction: He does this again and the Braves are gonna get tired of it. If he gets hurt again he's getting cut.

As good as Raisel Iglesias can be in the ninth, sometimes he has a season or two where things kinda unravel and he needs to be humbled a bit, and that was 2025 for the veteran closer. Despite 29 saves and 73 Ks, his 3.21 ERA was higher than usual, and accounted for a lot of blown opportunities. After how comparably untouchable he's been since coming to Atlanta, it was a wake-up call for all involved parties. Thankfully it didn't seem to scare the Braves too much, as Iglesias is back for 2026.

2026 Prediction: Now that that's out of his system, 30+ saves and a 2 ERA again.

Similarly, since coming over from Colorado, Pierce Johnson has become one of the Braves' most reliable relief pieces period. And since Joe Jimenez and A.J. Minter were not in the picture this year, he got even more responsibility placed upon him, which I think he did well with. Johnson, in 59 innings, had a 3.05 ERA, a 1.1 WAR [his highest since 2021], and 59 Ks. 

2026 Prediction: A slight downturn in a mid-level market [Reds? D-Backs? Rangers?]. [Update 1/11/26: and on my first guess as well!]

I think the Braves fans had to be pretty disappointed when there'd been all this pomp and circumstance over a game at Bristol Motor Speedway, which was already a logistical and managerial disaster, and they don't even get the matchup they were promised. Cause they went in with the idea that it'd be Chase Burns vs. Spencer Strider, which sounds really cool, and then it rains halfway through the first inning, so they have to pick it up the following day, without either starter, and it becomes Brent Suter vs. Hurston Waldrep. That's not as cool. Waldrep had been called up as a swing option, with both Carlos Carrasco and Erick Fedde as rotation options, and was handed the ball after Austin Cox couldn't cut it. But Waldrep, the 23-year-old who tried to spin a similar 2024 opportunity into a run only to get hurt quickly into it, turned this into a pitch for long-term supremacy, and got the win, only allowing 3 hits and an earned run, and striking out 4. Waldrep would be one of the best pitchers of the Braves' second half, going 6-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 55 Ks in 10 starts. 

2026 Prediction: Opening Day rotation, stays in there all year. Hopefully the injury bug doesn't hit, cause I think they've got something here.

Nacho Alvarez Jr. was supposed to factor into 2025 as a backup infielder and utility guy, but then he got hurt pre-season and Nick Allen played that role anyhow. But, of course, Austin Riley gets hurt midyear, and once Alvarez got healthy he got third for a while. In 58 games he only hit .234 with 15 RBIs, but his defense was a big part of the Braves' late-season swell.

2026 Prediction: More prominent backup work, though he will have to contend with Mauricio Dubon on that bench.

As discussed, the Braves worked overtime after the trade deadline to add anyone they could who was DFA'd, needing all the help they could get, and managed to snag pieces like Erick Fedde, Joey Wentz, Brett Wisely, Jake Fraley, Alexis Diaz and Dane Dunning. The cleverest one was convincing the Rays to give up Ha-Seong Kim, who'd been injured all year and wasn't helping once he got healthy. Once Kim got to the Braves, he dominated, hitting .253 in 24 games with 3 homers and 12 RBIs, plus some excellent defense. This did a lot to up Kim's free agency case for this year.

2026 Prediction: Three-year deal with a competitor, has his best season to date and gets an ASG nod.

The other cool move the Braves made after the deadline was bringing back Charlie Morton to round out his career. Morton had a very rocky season, going from punchline to contender with the O's and then the opposite with the Tigers, but the Braves knew he needed to end his career with dignity, so they brought him back in late September. The 41-year-old made one last start, and in an inning an a third, gave up 2 hits but no runs, and notched his last strikeout. Then exited to a standing o in the place he'd come up nearly 2 decades ago. That's what everybody wants, I think.

Coming Tomorrow- The Brewers were closer than ever to a World Series, and they arguably have a team that can get them back.