It Doesn't Have to be Pretty

 

The Padres are on an ungodly streak right now chasing the Dodgers. I know I've said this before recently. The Padres always find a way to get good, conveniently around the time the Dodgers start losing games, and then they play each other and nothing happens and the Dodgers still win the division. And that is conveniently how things went the last time the Padres played the Dodgers. Pure momentum killer, Dodgers took 3 games, business as usual. Well...right now the Padres are 8 games behind the Dodgers, which in this run it like being 2 games behind them. The Dodgers have Ohtani cold, a bunch of people hurt, Skubal middling and have lost some key series. The Padres are 18-9 since the all-star break, have their stars finally hitting, and despite so many messy details, are winning games and looking dominant.

To be honest, this is the perfect team for Mason Miller, because the games are gonna be close due to the flickering run support and the eaten-away rotation. They brought in Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to aid the rotation, both have given up far too many runs, especially Mize. Michael King is the only Padres starter with a WAR over 1. Meaning Walker Buehler and Randy Vazquez, despite flirting with dominance, have not been able to keep this team stable. Adrian Morejon has more wins than anyone in the rotation because he seems to be on the mound when the lead changes more than any of the starters, because typically the starters are the reason for the negative lead changes. Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, and of course Mason Miller, have provided an excellent cushion even if the rotation has sputtered.

And though Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado all had awful starts, they've more than made up for it. It took Tatis 2 months to hit a homer, and now he's got 13 with 56 RBIs and 28 steals, plus a .280 average. A 30/30 year still seems like a long shot, but it's still a decent year for Tatis. Machado is still clearly past his peak, but he's got 23 homers and 70 RBIs, which is certainly a productive power year. And Merrill went from a nothing year to one of the most important ones in San Diego, as his 19 homers and 63 RBIs have been a boost in the last few months. He's still only 23, but the more he sticks around, the closer he's getting to those peak numbers everyone's been so excited about. 

All that and some surprisingly potent bench numbers from two guys named Luis have been fueling the Padres to a clear 2nd place and a definite spot in the postseason conversation. The D-Backs want it just as bad as they do, and have a much better rotation, but they also just lost Ketel Marte. It may be a true foot race between the two teams with only 1 wild card spot to spare, and it's gonna be very close. 

Coming Tomorrow- Last year, on a come up, he was wild with occasional flashes of greatness. This year he's been pretty great all-around.

Paid in Jacksons

 

So just to recap, Jackson Chourio got his payday before he'd played a game, and Jackson Merrill got his payday a year into his career. All I'm saying is Jackson Holliday has got to be thankful his dad made a little money back in the day or else he'd be getting some serious FOMO.

The Padres had been undefeated before the Cubs came to town, and so much of it had to do with Jackson Merrill and his wild start to the season. So far the OF bat is hitting .375 with 12 hits, 8 RBIs and 2 homers. The realized beauty of seeing Merrill and Tatis, and Machado, surging at the same time has been incredible for Padres fans. Even post-Seidler, Merrill is the kind of sure thing player that has reignited the team's outlook. He's young, he's versatile, he's great defensively, he can hit for power and contact. He's just come along at the exact right time, and it's gotta be exhilarating. 

I do think it's very telling how Merrill factors into this team several years into the Fernando Tatis story. Tatis was also this multi-tool guy, then got caught cheating, struggled with an injury and now is...well-regarded but not as well-regarded as he was. And he's still very good! Dude's hitting .400 so far this season! Not even Luis Arraez is doing that somehow. Tatis is leaning into contact, getting on base and not striking out a lot. At 26, he's still very much in his prime, he's finally got a defensive position he's comfortable in, and can still lead the team like he used to. And I think that if he hadn't gotten into trouble they wouldn't NEED a second guy like Merrill to supplant him. So it's a very complicated case. I think right now there is still room for the both of them to excel in San Diego, but I don't know how much longer that'll be a viable plan. 

The Padres themselves, Cubs series notwithstanding, have remained near the top of the very impressive NL West in a full team effort. The rotation, of Dylan Cease, Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vazquez and Kyle Hart, has been extremely solid so far. Even if Pivetta gave up runs yesterday he still kept striking people out. Even if Vazquez was credited with a loss his ERA is still 1.69. This is a really nice group of starters, and this is even without Darvish, Musgrove or Waldron. The bullpen has been excellent so far, thanks to dominance from Robert Suarez, Wandy Peralta, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and the unsurprisingly-much-happier-in-2025 Jason Adam. It'll be interesting to see how Adam does in June, but that's a-ways away. 

The Padres, thanks to Jackson Merrill, are back in the thick of things and making the NL West a fun, competitive division this year. The Dodgers and Giants want it just as badly, so from the looks of things this'll be a fun ride all the way through.

Coming Tonight: When we traded for him, I knew he'd do well in New York. I just knew, it was an immediate instinct. And I was right. 

Twentysomethings Named Jackson

 

By now you've probably heard that the three youngest players in baseball right now are all named 'Jackson'. Jackson Chourio of Milwaukee, Jackson Merrill of San Diego, and now Jackson Holliday of Baltimore. Which proves one thing: Jackson was just a really popular baby name in, like, 2003. 

[Then again, my nephew, who just turned 1, is a Jackson, so what the hell do I know? And for those of you that are longtime readers of the blog, yes, I, Jordan of Mint Condition, am an uncle. I'll keep AARP at bay for ya.]

Of the two, the one Jackson that people seem to be talking about the least is Jackson Merrill, who made the Opening Day roster with San Diego. While Merrill isn't quite the big name that Chourio or Holliday have been, he's been one of the Padres' top performers so far this season. The 21-year-old is currently hitting .286 with 12 hits, 3 RBIs and 2 stolen bases. He's also a decent defender, and has been doing his best to make up for the loss of Trent Grisham [who's cursing his luck over in New York at the moment]. 

Right now, with the number of Padres who just aren't showing up, it's nice that someone like Merrill can go from a prospect piece to a team mainstay. Because right now Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Joe Musgrove are all struggling. Machado's beginning to pick up, but the fact that the starting 3B is currently Tyler Wade, and Machado is spending most of his time at DH, is...concerning. Machado is 31, and one would assume he still had at least some peak material left, even if it's very possible that he hit his peak at 30 and is now just sliding back downhill, like Pujols before him. I just think that, considering how much the Padres paid to keep him around while their owner was still alive, it would be nice if he had some solid seasons left in him. 

The good news is that Merrill has ensured that this inefficiency hasn't spread to the outfield, as he, Fernando Tatis and Jurickson Profar are all off to hot starts. Profar I think is just made to perform well in San Diego, as the Denver experiment did not work whatsoever for him. He's hitting .333 with 10 RBIs and 3 homers already, that's what they're used to. Tatis is kinda doing his thing, 9 RBIs and 4 homers, he's probably only gonna build from here. And as he improves we're just all gonna collectively forget he took HGHs, just like the Dodgers are trying to sweep the Ippei thing under the rug. Y'know, just watch how he plays, focus entirely on that.

The Padres are still figuring themselves out in the post-Seidler era, and I think they're coming to terms with the fact that they may not compete, but they at least have enough people right now who are performing well to keep them out of last. And somebody like Merrill is a great future piece that could lead them to a future era where they aren't trapped behind the Dodgers and D-Backs.

Maybe another couple Jacksons will come along as well. Who knows at this point?

Coming Tomorrow- The phrase 'a swing that was made for Fenway' comes to mind.