Division Series' Day 5: Three Endings and One Second Act

 

Second consecutive section of the playoffs where three series' leave the other one hanging.

The sugarplums have faded a bit in Chicago. They all thought the sweep was possible and then they remember, 'oh right, we've only got one good starter and a bunch of guys we'd rather have do 3 innings of relief'. And so Game 3 was a 9-3 Cleveland victory, because they had Foster Griffin for most of the game and he did more than Davis Martin, Noah Schultz or David Sandlin could.

It's very relieving that the Guardians' lineup finally showed up, as people worried they wouldn't [I mean what kind of team would just refuse to hit in a postseason series after dominating offensively all season, right?]. Kwan, Ramirez, Adell, Rocchio and Angel Genao all had excellent plate appearances, and J-Ram quieted any worry he'd be an ineffective postseason piece this year with that game-deciding 2-run triple. 

The White Sox are still in prime position, but they need to cling onto that momentum before the Guardians force a Game 5. 

So the Dodgers are going to another NLCS, and they did it behind their fourth man, who'd really be their second man if injuries hadn't happened. Tyler Glasnow was very good, only giving up one run, and making the work easy for the bullpen. Max Muncy and Andy Pages continued their strong postseasons. They made this one look pretty simple honestly, because they have contingency plans for everything. I'm not calling them a lock for the World Series right now, but it is looking likelier than it was a couple weeks ago, even with their NLCS opponent looking pretty strong.

As for the Braves...I think the first hint that this wasn't the team was that it took them 3 games to eliminate the Phillies when, if they were at their peak, it would have taken them two.

The tragedy about the Braves is that the highlights of this team were so high [Baldwin, Sale, Olson] that once you look below them you see how little depth there was this year. Tyler Mahle was a crucial postseason starter because Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep were nowhere to be found this year. Guys like Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas were novel ideas that went nowhere. The season came down to Raisel Iglesias, and they've had better versions of him.

Next year they're more likely to compete than Philly, but I don't necessarily think they'll run unopposed. 

The Rays are tough, man. They solidified themselves as a World Series threat in this series, and are the team to beat going forward. The ALCS will go through Tampa, either top starter remaining hasn't had the luck Drew Rasmussen has, and Caminero's only just begun. Though Victor Mesa Jr. will be linked to the controversial overturned home run call from this game, his homer in the sixth sealed the game and ensured the sweep would happen. A guy like Mesa, who was an insanely cheap preseason pickup for Tampa this year, has made this team pop as much as people like Ryan Vilade, Bryan Baker, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Martinez had. It's the usual Rays-ball mentality of putting the best people in position to succeed, regardless of how much they're making, and it may get them a franchise-first ring. 

That does mean that of the AL candidates, the most recent World Series winner remaining is the Chicago White Sox. Let's keep in mind for a second that the Brewers have never one won, and we really only have one recent W.S. winner remaining at all...and I think you can see where I'll be rooting from here on out. 

I'm running out of things to say in Octobers about this team, guys. Every year 'this is the team', every year 'look at them go', and every year 'what happened?' 

Is it really the case of the Red Sox being so out of steam that they were that easy for the Yanks to beat, and the Rays were so good that none of that production could be mustered? Or did the Yankees once again completely stop working once they got to the division series round? Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and Austin Wells didn't get that memo though, as they all had terrific series. Anthony Volpe also did a nice amount, though in a just world that homer isn't overturned and the Rays run out of good relievers before we do. Ultimately the stamina was not there. Back in the day we didn't have an extra month of the season, it was like two weeks, and some teams are way better at prepping a team for seven months than others. The Yankees are absolutely shit at it. If this was the old playoff bracket they'd have enough momentum to last but they tap out around this time of year every time, and they're not getting any better. It's not 2006 anymore, this isn't sustainable. 

Next year, Judge will be healthy, Jones and Lombard will be everyday options, and Schlittler, Fried, Cole and Rodon will all be healthy and ready to go. If the owners waste what could be a terrific Yankees year before the Yankees themselves can, I'll be pretty mad. 

Anyway, we knew the Brewers had the edge in this series, but man this one was competitive. Back and forth, lead changes, lots of heroes on both sides. That the Brewers pulled it out should not be a knock on SD, they had a great series but just weren't the better team. Robert Gasser was able to be the hero in a start, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 run. He's not as flashy as Miz and Henderson, but he gets the job done. Once again Chourio was the hero, but Sal Frelick and especially Garrett Mitchell had some big moments. 

The Brewers once again have to go through LA to make it to a World Series. But now they can win on the road, and they'll be starting in Milwaukee. And this team's even better than last year's. I think that NLCS could go all seven, and the Dodgers may not have the lay up they had last year.

Again, the Padres tried, and they could have advanced had it not been for a really strong opponent. They did a lot with some gaping holes, and having only 1 real viable postseason starter kind of did them in ultimately. I also think having to put guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor high in the lineup illuminated the lack of real depth unfortunately. Not to knock Samad Taylor, he had a nice season this year and may have finally found a place he can stick around. But Samad Taylor is not Jake Bauers, or Garrett Mitchell, or Joey Ortiz. I assume they will probably be in the mix next year, but the D-Backs will probably want revenge again.

Tonight we see if the White Sox can close things out. I kinda hope they do.

Division Series' Day 3 & 4: The Picture is Forming

 

I wasn't really around the last few days, and I probably should do write ups on these games, just for posterity's sake, so, here goes.

-The White Sox becoming a postseason juggernaut was not something I was predicting but I'm very much here for it. A lot of Cleveland fans are chalking this up to the Guardians' own post-September fade for the second year in a row, but it's important to note that Gavin Williams wasn't the problem that game, and the offense still did what they could. The White Sox are just better right now, and their core is coming to life in a way that feels like it was teased all year but never certain. The usual combo of Murakami, Vargas, Meidroth and Chase Montgomery is getting it done, and rookie Braden Montgomery joined the fun Monday night, with the RBI double that flipped the game.

The Sox are in clinching position today. I know people talked about their side of the bracket as a joke compared to the AL East side but you really never know. The White Sox, if they make the ALCS, could in all theory keep going, regardless of who they play. It's fascinating, but they've got a higher power on their side it seems. 

Speaking of teams that have given up...

I think the difference between the grievances of Guardians fans and the grievances of Yankee fans right now is that the Yankees are actually playing a really good team. NOT THAT THE WHITE SOX AREN'T, they ARE very good, but they are very streaky, and have gotten hot at the exact right time. The Rays are actually a fantastic team that's playing very well right now and have enough put together that a World Series is very much in reach. They also got Freddy Peralta working again, as he dealt against the Yanks even after Drew Rasmussen quieted them earlier. If Peralta is *back*, like fully back, then the Rays could be a nightmare going forward. 

The Yanks did not help matters by making numerous errors and doing nothing at the plate [not you Ben Rice you're doin great]. Aaron Boone finally seems to have an incentive to change the lineup, seeing as the season's on the line and all tonight and if they get swept in front of a home crowd, the fans might genuinely riot. I'm really hoping the Yanks keep the series alive, but they've run out of momentum and the Schlittler card couldn't even save them in Game 2. 

Anyway it must have been a rerun last night because Enrique Hernandez, after hitting .150 during the regular season, had a huge home run against the Braves and brought the Dodgers closer to an NLCS. Hernandez is moving further and further up the postseason home run leaderboard, which is wild for a player who constantly seems otherwise inconsequential during the regular season. It's absolutely wild that he's allowed to do that. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman just keeps hackin' away and is continuing HIS excellent October luck, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto had another insanely dominant October start. This team really is built for October in a way that no other team is, and the Braves need to figure out if they have anyone at all capable of keeping them down. 

And finally...good for the Padres, honestly. Facing the Brewers' worst starter and a couple of their weakest relievers, they got ahead, hit another ball to the rookie shortstop which he floundered, and kept the Brewers down without Mason Miller. If things go awry tonight, which is always likely, at least they had a cool home win, and at least Jake Cronenworth, after a rough season, got to be the hero by breaking the game open with a homer. 

The stat people are beginning to worry about is that, as good as the Brewers have been in the Pat Murphy era, they're terrible on the road. If the Padres force a Game 5, that'll be yet another road opportunity wasted. Plus, Christian Yelich had his first postseason RBI since 2018, so he's turning things around. Maybe the rest of the team will too. They have Bobby Gasser on the mound tonight, hoping to seal the deal and make another NLCS. I'm kinda pulling for them, even though the Padres may be equally worthy given their recent rallies. 

A lot could happen tonight. All four could end tonight. I don't think they all will, and I kinda hope one team avoids a sweep, but...I guess we'll see.

Wild Card Series' Day 2: How's THAT ONE the Even One??

 

I just don't understand this at all. Going into this wild card week, I was figuring that one of these would be really cut and dry, over before it started, and the rest would be back and forth. As it turns out, that was not the case at all. Two series I figured would cause me pain didn't even remotely. And the one that I figured would be a foregone conclusion...is going to game three. 

I'm...vexed. I knew the Braves had weaknesses worthy of being exploited. I just did not think the Phillies were good enough to exploit them at the moment. Very clearly the Braves are good at pointing out ours, like the defensive schematic being pointless if Arraez isn't in at second, the bullpen instability, the lack of general run support and the tendency to lay down meatballs at inopportune moments. We did a lot of that. Harper and Bohm made errors that, if they didn't tie and win the game respectfully, would have been further scrutinized.

All in all, Sanchie put on a clinic, the offense showed up and Bohm came to life yet again, Harper and Schwarber did some heavy lifting, and this team held the Braves down long enough to force a game 3. I do not know how well this is going to go, because the Phillies still have those issues that are concerning everyone, but...we forced a Game 3 against a team that's better than us. The Braves, even if they win this series, may not recover from nearly slipping against a Phils team that can't hit. The Dodgers could have fun with that, arguably more fun than they would if we somehow win this game. 

The Phils really know how to drive me up the wall some days. Maybe this works out. Kinda horrified about the prospect of LA but hey...maybe NOW we gain the momentum we should have all year. If not, Braves-Dodgers is what I was already prepping for anyway.

Anyway, the shellackings. So...the White Sox won a playoff series for the first time in years, the Astros lost in the first round and were exploited for being a weak division winner, and the fun wild card team gets to take on Cleveland and possibly reclaim the narrative of the whole season. I like this a lot better than 'well, it's the Astros......again..' Like, what the hell else can you even say about them at this point? They've sucked so hard they might go to another ALCS? 

The White Sox's contact battery was exactly as successful this playoff series as I'd hoped it'd be. Kyle Teel, Andrew Benintendi and Tristan Peters piled on the contact stuff to end Hunter Brown's day WAY earlier than I thought it would, then Chase Meidroth pulled it over the edge with a 3-run bomb off Peter Lambert, who the Astros already decided wasn't starting Game 3 and certainly wouldn't now. They now head to Cleveland with Davis Martin fully rested, Sean Burke riding pretty high, Kay and Fedde both viable options, and the offense fired up. Murakami came to the White Sox to lay low and made it to the playoffs immediately, and I love it for him.

I will give the Astros credit. Despite giving up, they never completely gave up.

[reads over a second time] Yeah.

They fought til the end. Jose Altuve, Cam Smith and Jeremy Pena all homered. The bullpen locked in more than the starters could. I think it's so fitting that the big error of the game was committed by Lucas Spence, because if it weren't for his four home runs in the A's series, the Astros probably wouldn't even have been a playoff team to begin with. They are here because of Lucas Spence, and they're booted from the playoffs after two games...also because of Lucas Spence. Full circle. Spence probably has a nice career ahead of him, or the Astros hope he does, as Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo and Brice Mathews haven't really firmed things up at all. 

I figured the Yankees had the edge over Boston. I did not think it would go like this.

Basically...the Sox' bullpen ruined two good starts by their main guns, the main bats didn't show up, and the Yankees, at home, took advantage of every last misstep. Tonight, Cody Bellinger was the kingkiller, with the 3-run bomb off of Garrett Whitlock, after Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, George Lombard and Luis Garcia Jr. had already made a mess of things. People are worried about the lack of Aaron Judge, but considering that Bellinger, Jones, Lombard, Volpe, Chisholm, Grisham, Wells, Garcia and especially Ben Rice have come through in huge moments for this team, they can worry less. The whole time, the Yankees have been trying to be more than just 'Aaron Judge's team', and right now that's what we are. The whole team won this series and kept it short. 

Rays-Yankees is gonna be TOUGH. I think we can find a way through but the Rays have a whole mess of weapons, and they will not make it easy. If either team makes the ALCS, they'll deserve it. I hope the Yanks can rise to the occasion, but the Rays have been too much for them at many points. I just hope this time will be different. 

There was a moment where it genuinely looked like the Sox were tanking for seed choice. They were losing the last few games of the year, and I thought it was because they wanted to face Houston and not the Yanks. Which would have been a smart move because they'd have won against Houston. In all actuality it was because they completely ran out of steam and had nothing left by the time they got to the Bronx. 

The Sox still got a decent start out of Sonny Gray, a helpful homer from Willson Contreras, and a winning throw from Nate Eaton to nab Ben Rice at home. That's it. Garrett Crochet was not ready and soiled the game. Whitlock, as good as he's been this year, didn't help either. Rutschman, Abreu, Rafaela and Durbin were listless. It was a relatively cut and dry series, which is great for me personally but you never want that for Yanks-Sox. It's gotta be back and forth, that's more fun. I appreciate the ease of it all but...it's just clear they were exhausted just from their second half comeback. That's a win in itself, and hopefully the Chad Tracy era yields more seasons like these, but...yeah, not the immediate gratification many fans were hoping for.

The wild card teams that make the playoffs always are correspondent to their momentum. If they're gaining as the season ends they've got a shot, if they're losing they may be in trouble. The Cubs had some momentum going into September and lost it...around the same time the Padres gained theirs. So this one was honestly pretty simple.

A lot is gonna be said going into next year about Xander Bogaerts. He hasn't put up Sox numbers as a Padre but he's been plenty good, and his big RBIs this series are proof that he can be helpful in the postseason. Maybe there's merit to that contract after all. Same with Machado, who looked like a lost cause in the first half and wound up with a 30 homer/90 RBI season anyway, just with a bit less heft than usual. These guys can be helpful even off their peaks. Of course, Gavin Sheets was the real hero, breaking the game open with a massive bomb and making the eventual win a foregone conclusion.

The Padres looked amazing this series. Unfortunately, now they have to play the best team in baseball. The hope will be that the momentum holds and they can best Milwaukee in an upset, but this will be tough with the lack of real starting depth the Padres have. 

So here's the thing. Tropicana Field might be cursed now. Which is intriguing.

The last game of the season, the Sox were GOING TO host the Cubs at Fenway, and then a huge storm came and MLB said 'no, this game has to be played, we have Tropicana Field open, get down there'. Let's forget that the Yanks and O's also have a game in the line of fire, and that's not gonna get played at all, but Cubs-Sox needs to be played, even if they're both in, and even if the seeds are pretty solid. So the Cubs and Red Sox go down to Tampa, play in this meaningless game, Roman Anthony gets hurt, Alex Bregman attempts to play hurt. And then they both go for their playoff games and they both lose immediately. Rob Manfred, as he's going to a lot in the next six months, will insist there was no connection. But it's awfully suspicious that you hurl two teams out of their comfort zones and they both lose right after. And one guy gets hurt. 

The Cubs did not have any life this series. I also think they were at the mercy of their starting pitching options, and Boyd and Gausman were not as strong postseason options as they were last year. The bullpen didn't help either. And both PCA and Bregman failed to really make much of an impact. There is definitely a future for this team, and Pedro Ramirez had a very nice rookie come-up as a depth infielder and contact bat, but next year they'll need to contend with the Cardinals, who will inevitably strike back, and the Pirates, who'll hopefully have a healthier Paul Skenes, and unless the pitching suddenly reverts to classic energy [getting Steele and Horton back at full strength would certainly help], it'll be much tougher. 

Alright, all down to Atlanta tonight. Would love a Phils win somehow but I also have tempered my expectations and know, realistically, who the better team is. Intrigued nonetheless.

Wild Card Series' Day 1: Close and Not Close

 

Okay, let's just...temper ourselves, first of all. The Phillies aren't playing like a playoff team. They haven't since like August. They got in due to some luck, don't have much hitting energy left, never really did to begin with, and have the same issues, including bullpen troubles, as always. The Braves are the better team, the Phillies needed to find moments to best them in between their own troubles, and while they did...the decision to let Jhoan Duran face Michael Harris was the one that did them in. I think they were trying to do a Dave Roberts management thing, putting in the best pitcher rather than the most logical one. It's what Roberts does with starters in the postseason. Mattingly did it with the one good reliever he has, just plopping him down and hoping he does enough of the work to chill down the core. It worked for 1 and 2/3rds innings, and then it backfired.

Austin Riley's 3-run bomb shouldn't be diminished, as it's a huge moment to save a season that was in danger of falling off, nor should the offensive work from Ozzie Albies and Mike Yastrzemski. The truth of the matter is the Phils had Atlanta on the ropes, they made what they thought was the best decision, with their best reliever, and they lost the game because they thought they were better off with one more Duran batter than any other reliever, which would make sense had he not faced five already. If Bowlan goes in, I think there's still a chance we win that game.

It comes down to Cristopher Sanchez today. If for some reason he locks in and we tie the series...I still don't think we're taking it because the Braves are simply a better team. Yesterday at least proved we can move the needle a little if we're not busy getting in our own way.

I think it was fitting that the game between two also-rans without terrific records was a bullpen game. Unfortunately for the Astros, that already left them at a disadvantage, as their bullpen's been quite terrible this year, and that Bryan King was the first to flinch isn't shocking at all. The White Sox are capable of this sort of contact energy when the other guys aren't looking, and without a Lambert or a Brown to fall back on, the Astros were leveled and, frankly, human.

Also, this being a bullpen game may have fooled the Astros into a sense of security, because Hagen Smith is technically a reliever, but since he came up midyear the Sox have been slowly stretching out his innings and trusting him with more and more responsibility. The idea, I assume, is to let him start next year [something that will be welcome considering how many Sox guys may have overexerted themselves this year], and so this being an extended opener spot for Smith sort of turned into a preview of that. Smith went three innings, gave up 2 hits and no earned runs. Credit to Grant Taylor, Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin for the assist. It's wild that Jordan Hicks seemed to regain his mojo as the year went on, and is back to being a strong spot guy. 

Anyway, Sox are up 1-0, and are very close to doing what twenty earlier incarnations of the team could not [win a playoff series]. I will be rooting for them.

Anyway, uh...this one was nice, wasn't it? 

I'm being very careful because the Sox could absolutely come back, but...them landing in the playoffs after burning through the goodwill in 2 months and robbing themselves of Alex Cora, then coming back and going wild...that's a win in and of itself. That's a moral victory. Payton Tolle having a strong enough start on his own merits, that's a big win. Everything else was essentially as expected. The bullpen did not hold up, the lineup shuddered at the prospect of rising to the occasion, Roman Anthony's likely hurt again, and Brayan Bello's back to square one. 

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a highlight reel tonight. Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches and allowed 2 hits, a walk and ten strikeouts. George Lombard went 3 for 4 with 2 runs. Austin Wells went 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs. Spencer Jones had a big hit and scored 2 runs. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber were untouchable. And Ben Rice made up for the lack of Aaron Judge by hitting TWO big home runs, one to pad the lead and another in the eighth, a grandy, to make this a foregone conclusion. Rice has had a HUGE season, and continues to be a spark plug as a power bat. 

Fried vs. Gray next. Would love the Yanks to close this one out, but when have the Sox ever made it easy?

And finally...JEEEEEEZ.

I kinda figured the Padres would have the edge just for the sake of their momentum vs. the Cubs's, but my GOD. The Cubs barely showed up. Their choice for top starter, Matt Boyd, is in the midst of a recovery year and didn't hold down the Padres well at all, giving up home runs to Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, the marquee guys. The bullpen didn't do a heck of a lot better, and when you've gotta throw Assad and Civale out there instead of specialists, they're gonna make mistakes. Altogether the Cubs had three hits in this game. Only one was off of Michael King, who was absolutely electric, going 7 strong and striking out 8. The other two were off of returning hero Joe Musgrove, who did well enough for his return to the mound. Two of the hits were from Nico Hoerner, the other was from Seiya Suzuki, meaning PCA, Bregman, Swanson and Happ could not get a single thing done. 

The Yanks bodying the Sox behind Schlittler was something you may have predicted, but this absolute shellacking the Padres performed? Maybe the Dodgers were commanding so much of the narrative that nobody was really noticing the Padres get hot. And now they have the leverage, the home crowd and the pitching edge, with Nick Pivetta looking to seal the deal today against a down Kevin Gausman season. Can the Cubs respond? 

I'm thinking at least two series' end today. I'd love to have three, but that would imply the Astros are gonna lay down and die, and they really never do that when I want them to.

How Dare You Want More

 

I think it is a very big deal that the Padres, despite the droughts in production or pitching luck or anything, were able to persist in the postseason conversation this year. They were never going to be a first place team, because the Dodgers were always going to be better. They were never a lock for 2nd because of the D-Backs. It took Fernando Tatis a while to start hitting home runs and now he's got 21. It's a testament to the persistence of this team that they stayed in it, to the point where they're very much in the race for that last wild card spot, despite so much of it just not working.

Like...there's a lot of half-seasons that were good, but not a lot of full campaigns were. Other than Ty France, Michael King, Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon, everybody either crapped out after the first half or didn't start til the second. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Walker Buehler and Luis Campusano are finishing with halfway decent seasons, and it's doing a lot to erase their struggles from earlier on. Machado is hitting .221 now, but was hitting .190 for most of the first half. If he didn't also have 27 homers and 82 RBIs, seasonably great numbers for the future Hall of Famer, he'd get a lot more criticism. Same with Merrill, whose 2nd half has erased any doubts people had about his trajectory. Merrill hit 25 homers and 82 RBIs, plus 26 stolen bases. If the Padres make the postseason, Merrill might be the most dangerous part of the team. 

I also think the bullpen has built on 2025, which is weird to say about a team that had 4 relievers make the all-star team. Miller's elite, but we knew that. Beyond that, Adrian Morejon's having another fantastic year as a setup man/relief specialist, with 9 wins, 100 strikeouts, a 2.70 ERA and a 1.8 WAR. Morejon is commanding, consistent, and reliable, and since joining the bullpen full time in 2024, he's been one of the most crucial pieces of these Padres teams. Without Jason Adam or Robert Suarez this year, he needed to step up, and he very much did. Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez and Wandy Peralta have provided stability behind him.

There's gonna be some worry about how the rotation holds up, because Randy Vasquez is very streaky, Walker Buehler's not as good as he was in 2019, and Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have struggled since the deadline, but...Nick Pivetta just came back and he's been very strong, being part of two wins, and only allowing 2 runs. In a postseason scenario, it would be Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Robbie Ray, and that's honestly a pretty nice rotation. If Ray can firm up in the postseason, which seems likely, they could be a match for whoever they go against [probably Atlanta at this rate].

This only happens if they stay ahead of the Diamondbacks, which I honestly think is possible, given how much momentum they've built up in the past few weeks. They're 2.5 games up as the D-Backs are imploding, have the Rockies and Marlins all week, and hopefully by the time the Padres have to play their division rivals again to finish off the season, they'll have enough of a cushion to secure that postseason spot. I don't know how far they'll get, but...considering I didn't expect them to get this far, who knows.

Coming Tonight: He didn't have a very good season, as the centerpiece of a team needing a real homegrown hero. Luckily the team didn't need him to be great, they just needed him to be there. 

Minding the Jet-Lag

 

It's gotta be weird when you come up with the new-regime Dodgers and move to a market where the postseason isn't guaranteed anymore. Cause the Yankees could have a fluke bad season, like they did in 2023, or they could have some rebuilding years in between Jeter and Judge. But the Dodgers have made the playoffs every year since 2013, meaning there's a majority of current high schoolers who hadn't even been born yet the last time they didn't make the playoffs. Remember in 2012 when the Dodgers could have Kemp, Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett and still not make the playoffs? That is wild. But they've been there in every subsequent season, and guys like Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Dustin May, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux can all come into careers where they're just in the playoffs every season.

And then they leave, either via trade or free agency, and it's not guaranteed. 

Corey Seager left the Dodgers after the 2021 season, signed a mega-deal with the Rangers, and the year after he got there he was a World Series winner again. His Rangers WAR totals have eclipsed his Dodgers WAR totals, probably because the Rangers have gotten a healthier, more consistent Seager who's been able to play a leading role. Since joining the Rangers, Seager has topped 30 home runs 3 times, which was something he never did with the Dodgers, and his 96 RBIs in 2023 were higher than his Dodgers totals. In joining this team, Seager went from a pretty solid, likable young infielder to a contact machine with a possible Hall of Fame trajectory. He just had to sacrifice the playoff certainty, because aside from the 2023 World Series win, he hasn't really made it back to October too much. 

This year is a closer bet than most, as the Rangers are still circling the division lead, as they and the Astros keep trading off who gets to be good so nobody actually takes a lead. They haven't gotten the BEST version of Seager, as he's still missed a lot of time. He's hitting .224 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs, so at least the production is there. It's been up to a combination of wild contact from Ezequiel Duran and his clutch ability and Cheesy Power Hitter Corner courtesy of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger. This appears to be doing something, and I put them ahead of the Astros for the division, but it's not a definite yet, or even a playoff appearance in general. So that has to be sobering for Seager and Pederson.

Then you have Walker Buehler over in San Diego, and it's a much different situation than the Dodgers years. Because the Padres actually have a nice playoff shot, they're eyeing a wild card spot at the moment, they've all been playing really well recently. Fernando Tatis has caught fire, he's looking like his old self, he's leading the team to glory. Jackson Merrill, Ty France and Xander Bogaerts are playing better now than they have all year. The pitching additions have worked, the team looks way better, and they've been 24-14 since the ASG break.

But Buehler's in a weird position. After all the injuries and delays, he came back last season and wasn't all that great. Made the playoffs with Philly, wasn't used much as a starter. Signs with San Diego, makes the Opening Day rotation, does...fine. Right now Buehler is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 108 Ks, it's fine but not as great as his heyday. But because the team has been steadily chugging along, he's not really much of a detriment. He's succeeding even without his best stuff, and is still a crucial member of a potential playoff team without being 2019 Walker Buehler. So it's an interesting balance. Buehler may have some really critical starts going forward, but right now he's not as valuable to the team as someone like Michael King, Randy Vasquez or Robbie Ray. But he's here, and he's doing his best, and he's still not an awful choice. It's just not what he's used to given how pivotal he was to those Dodgers rotations back in the day.

Both Seager and Buehler have a good chance of making the playoffs, but it's not definite. This is the tougher road to glory, but it's one they're taking nonetheless, and hopefully it goes well for them.

Coming Tomorrow- I think I've seen this guy pitch more than any other guy in my lifetime. Almost always excellent up there.

It Doesn't Have to be Pretty

 

The Padres are on an ungodly streak right now chasing the Dodgers. I know I've said this before recently. The Padres always find a way to get good, conveniently around the time the Dodgers start losing games, and then they play each other and nothing happens and the Dodgers still win the division. And that is conveniently how things went the last time the Padres played the Dodgers. Pure momentum killer, Dodgers took 3 games, business as usual. Well...right now the Padres are 8 games behind the Dodgers, which in this run it like being 2 games behind them. The Dodgers have Ohtani cold, a bunch of people hurt, Skubal middling and have lost some key series. The Padres are 18-9 since the all-star break, have their stars finally hitting, and despite so many messy details, are winning games and looking dominant.

To be honest, this is the perfect team for Mason Miller, because the games are gonna be close due to the flickering run support and the eaten-away rotation. They brought in Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to aid the rotation, both have given up far too many runs, especially Mize. Michael King is the only Padres starter with a WAR over 1. Meaning Walker Buehler and Randy Vazquez, despite flirting with dominance, have not been able to keep this team stable. Adrian Morejon has more wins than anyone in the rotation because he seems to be on the mound when the lead changes more than any of the starters, because typically the starters are the reason for the negative lead changes. Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, and of course Mason Miller, have provided an excellent cushion even if the rotation has sputtered.

And though Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado all had awful starts, they've more than made up for it. It took Tatis 2 months to hit a homer, and now he's got 13 with 56 RBIs and 28 steals, plus a .280 average. A 30/30 year still seems like a long shot, but it's still a decent year for Tatis. Machado is still clearly past his peak, but he's got 23 homers and 70 RBIs, which is certainly a productive power year. And Merrill went from a nothing year to one of the most important ones in San Diego, as his 19 homers and 63 RBIs have been a boost in the last few months. He's still only 23, but the more he sticks around, the closer he's getting to those peak numbers everyone's been so excited about. 

All that and some surprisingly potent bench numbers from two guys named Luis have been fueling the Padres to a clear 2nd place and a definite spot in the postseason conversation. The D-Backs want it just as bad as they do, and have a much better rotation, but they also just lost Ketel Marte. It may be a true foot race between the two teams with only 1 wild card spot to spare, and it's gonna be very close. 

Coming Tomorrow- Last year, on a come up, he was wild with occasional flashes of greatness. This year he's been pretty great all-around.

Unstoppable Force, Movable Object

 

To finish off June, the San Diego Padres lost 8 consecutive games. And for a team with next to no pitching and an alarming lack of depth, that was considered par for the course I suppose. Around this time the Miami Marlins were taking off, with a 20-6 record in June. Two teams going two very separate directions. So how do you explain the results of this Padres-Marlins series, where the Padres took all three, meaning the Marlins have now lost 12 straight, despite winning six straight beforehand? What the hell went wrong? The Marlins haven't lost anybody. The Padres haven't gained anybody. Now the Padres might be more of a wild card threat than the Marlins, despite them both having the same record.

Manny Machado is the guy who most represents the strangeness of this Padres season. They're not good, but they were given the belief to be at least decent. Hasn't gone 100% according to plan. Much like Manny Machado's season. This has been the first real down season the man has had since his early days in Baltimore, like his 2014 season where he, at 21, only hit .278 with 12 homers and 32 RBIs in a shortened season. Or his 2017, where, in between star-making campaigns, he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 RBIs, most accomplished in a second half struggling to make up for a down first. Machado, in the midst of a Hall of Fame career that will no doubt cross the 400 home run mark this year and possibly the 500 mark eventually, is hitting .210 with 23 homers and 36 RBIs, with a 0.8 WAR owing to a high strikeout percentage, poor defense and a lack of real pull in the direction of the team. But he was still able to hit a crucial home run off of Lake Bachar last night, in addition to Jackson Merrill, who's also suddenly hitting despite a subpar overall campaign.

The Padres will likely sell at the deadline...or will they? We thought the Marlins would be buying, but now that they're back under .500, who knows? The Padres have Michael King, Ty France and Mason Miller to deal, and probably still will even if they're better than they were. But now there's been this swell, they're chasing the Diamondbacks who are ducking again, and now they're playing two much worse NL West teams, and...they could buy after all? Is there a way they could even out while still dealing Miller and France? Who knows. The Tigers still chased glory a couple years ago after dealing Jack Flaherty. 

The Marlins...I just don't understand it. Nothing's changed. They still have the same offensive onslaught since before the losing streak began. Still Stowers, Hicks, Hernandez...they've just all gone cold. Stowers is still hitting, but only .234, despite the 13 homers and 45 RBIs. Hicks is cold after a terrific start, now down to .277. Marsee's stopped hitting, Joe Mack's cooled down, it's the whole team basically. It's not that the team's suddenly bad, it's that they all picked the same time to go cold. The Yankees do this all the time, they just did this a month ago. Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara are still viable answers in the rotation, with 3.5 to 4 ERAs and high strikeout totals. The bullpen's hit a bit of a snag, but since John King is back that could be coming to an end. Otto Lopez still leads the league in batting average with .328, and he might be the only guy in this lineup who hasn't really slowed down. But alas, even against the Padres, they just couldn't find the will.

They honestly should still buy. The core still is successful, this month has just sucked for them. I think one more rotation arm would do it, possibly another contact bat or an actual 1st baseman [France?], and getting Max Meyer back eventually would possibly be helpful as well. I also think that potentially Deyvison De Los Santos could be a very helpful midyear callup, but I've been saying that for like 3 years at this point so what do I know? 

This should be a turning point for both teams. The Marlins should respond to this Padres series with the intensity to ensure it'll never happen again. The Padres should respond to this Marlins series with the mentality that'll either confirm that they're a seller or add fuel to the fire that a wild card run is still in the cards. We'll see what actually comes from it though.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles just gave him a lot of money to stick around, so that...knocks out ONE potential deadline target I guess..

French Depress

 

The 2026 Padres have only been successful as a way of giving a third-string slugger a return to the glory days he never had. Let me explain,

In 2019, Ty France was all set to take hold of third base in San Diego. It was looking like he was next in the depth chart, he was a highly-prized corner prospect, the stars were aligning. And then the Padres signed Manny Machado, locking up third for the next 4 years, and ultimately the next 14 years. Machado was 26, fully in his prime, and ready to carry the team on his shoulders. Which meant France...was now going to be the backup. Eric Hosmer was covering first, eventually Fernando Tatis would take short; Ty France was completely blocked from the playing time he'd just thought was about to be his. The resulting rookie season was a .234, -0.2 WAR campaign. Despite 20 games of .300 hitting in 2020, the Padres still had no room for France, and dealt him to Seattle for Austin Nola [who would not, ultimately, solve the Padres' catching woes] and two relievers. This deal also brought Andres Muños to Seattle, but that's less important.

What's important is that Ty France, in Seattle, becomes a corner infield mainstay, having an all-star season in 2022, and being a decent part of the M's 2022 playoff squad. Then he stops hitting consistently, gets traded to Cincinnati, and splits the following season between the Twins and the AL Champion Jays. And as a result of his strong postseason as a bench bat, he rejoins the San Diego Padres, 7 years later, as a bench 1B option. And now he's got an .800 OPS, 10 homers and 30 RBIs in a basically everyday role for the Padres. 

Right now, Ty France is the best hitter on this team, something that may have happened if the Padres never traded him. Although what's worrying is that this team has Tatis, Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts and Miguel Andujar...and TY FRANCE has the highest OPS. That's a twilight zone twist, man. Okay, you get to be a star for the team that drafted you...but at the risk of literally everyone else in the lineup. The bizarre bit is that France was away from this team long enough to miss the rest of Machado's prime. Machado's been here 7 years, arguably cemented a Hall of Fame case, become a Padres legend, hit a ton of home runs and dialed back down...and NOW France is back being the hero. Good for him honestly, but it just feels a bit poorly timed. 

Obviously there's still things that work about this team. They can steal bases, the rotation isn't too bad, the bullpen's still good. The depth is just gone, and when the team isn't hitting that becomes all the more clear. It's really France and Bogaerts coming off the best, and you can make the case that Bogie isn't even hitting all that well. When Samad Taylor's batting near the front of your lineup, you've gotta question what went wrong. 

Clearly any team with Fernando Tatis and Mason Miller can't be completely counted out, but this is dire. They could use one of their usual post-ASG-break swoons, because otherwise they're really gonna need to think about the future after this season's over.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy I still can't believe stayed around longer than the real reason we traded Michael King to San Diego.

The Winds Just Aren't Picking Up

 

Fernando Tatis, in 2021, at age 22, hit 42 home runs in 130 games. Sometime after that he was involved in, depending on who you talk to, one or multiple motorcycle accidents, followed by a quad injury a couple years later. He has not surpassed 25 dingers since. 

So far this season, Tatis has hit...two home runs. It happens so infrequently now that one of them was hit in the ninth inning of a game in San Diego that a colleague of mine attended. Maybe it's cause he can't attend anymore games. But still, we've gone from 42 in a shortened season to 2 in 72 games. That's jarring. It's clear something's changed in his swing, and the power ceiling that was there in the early part of the decade might not be as high as it was.

However, Tatis is still having a positive season. .284 average, 79 hits, 26 RBIs. Not a worldbeater, but he's shifted to doing contact work that can aid the already contact-heavy Padres [Bogaerts, Cronenworth, and Merrill are also good in that department]. He's also still one of the team's best hitters. But...here's the thing. The idea was for Tatis and Machado, and to a lesser extent Gavin Sheets, to represent an ironclad power core for this Padres team going forward, and to this point they'd obliged. But now Tatis isn't hitting for power, Machado's power's gotten a ton more one-dimensional, and Sheets is doing more work than he honestly should be. So if this team doesn't really have a power game...and the solo contact guys are doing most of the work...then what are we even doing here? The depth's been sweated away, and when you're down to guys like Rodolfo Duran, Will Wagner and Samad Taylor needing to jump in, it's clear how much has strayed from the plan.

The Padres are hitting .218 as a team. A lot of that is due to Manny Machado not even pretending to reach .200, and Freddy Fermin, Jake Cronenworth and Nick Castellanos not finding it either. If the pitching wasn't better, especially the bullpen, this team would have no chance. But King, Vasquez, Buehler and Giolito are somehow doing enough to keep games close, and the bullpen can very easily finish it off. So as wild as it seems that THIS Padres team, with Tatis not finding the stands and Machado not finding the grass, is still a 2nd place team [and over .500]...well, they're pitching well. That's the key. It's not enough to lap the Dodgers, especially not now, but it's enough to keep them ahead of the D-Backs, who arguably have better individual starting performances and better hitting but keep getting their clocks cleaned by streaky teams. 

Who knows. Maybe they're gonna start hitting. Maybe Tatis is gonna start raking. But as it stands now, this is no way to hit one's way past the Dodgers.

Coming Tonight: It's an unsteady tightrope, being a marquee guy for a team who can't keep talent around, but this guy might have it figured out.

Empty Threats

 

The Padres, like last year, are firmly in second place, a few games behind the Dodgers, in attempt to intimidate them for the division. Unlike last year, I have no idea how the heck they can be intimidating when they lineup's barely showing up as it is.

I mean, look. Since 2024 we've been building around a core of Machado, Tatis, Merrill, Bogaerts. Okay. Manny Machado has 9 home runs and 28 RBIs, but he's hitting .171 and has a -0.4 WAR, some of the most pitifully one-dimensional numbers of his entire career. You can see he's trying but he's just not having a good time up there. Fernando Tatis, despite hitting .268 with a team-leading 55 hits...cannot hit home runs anymore. It's not happening. Whatever took him down a year or so ago, whatever injury, that took his power ability away. We're two months into the season and we're JUST NOW getting to his first homer of the season. He launched one last night. Need I remind you, this man hit FORTY-TWO before, and he started a lot earlier than May 30th. I know his father put up a high bar for squandering sky-high potential, but you can't seriously be chasing that. Jackson Merrill, meanwhile, is only hitting .201 with 5 home runs and 21 RBIs, possibly with the opposite problem as Machado where he's still technically pre-peak. Xander Bogaerts is at least producing runs, he's got 5 homers and 25 RBIs, but that's the best of the four.

And so it's been up to people like Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Ramon Laureano and Ty France to do most of the work, and it really shouldn't. They're the supplemental guys, they help you out. Sheets leads the team in OPS with .834, and he's got 9 dingers of his own, and...it's very nice, but he should be among a bunch of people driving in the runs. It shouldn't be him leading the charge. Laureano's ONCE AGAIN doing more work than he should for a cheap contract, just not as prominently as in Baltimore. France is hitting .287, has 6 homers and 17 RBIs, and is finding success he never was able to in San Diego. Seeing him in the same infield as Machado is wild. Even wilder that France is playing better.

The runs are getting produced, but the core isn't really responsible. Thankfully, with a pitching staff this good it doesn't really matter. King, Vazquez and Giolito are holding things down for 6 innings, then you go to honestly any bullpen guy and you're good. This year Bradgley Rodriguez is the big standout, but Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta, Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui and, well, Mason Miller, are all having excellent seasons. So really, the dysfunction in the lineup isn't as much of an issue as it could be because the rest of the team's doing what it should be doing. It ain't pretty, but it's working.

In order to FINALLY catch the Dodgers, they're gonna need the stars to step up and flip the script on their seasons. Cause if not, there's really no point. We've proven that Tatis can hit homers again. He needs to prove that the recovery period is over, and that he's gonna keep hitting them at a gradually accelerating rate. Y'know, like a ballplayer might.

Coming Tonight: 8 years after divebombing his career after a trade to a competitor, one of the most consistent pitchers of the 2020s continues his excellent run in Toronto.

Driving on Fumes

 

There've been some teams that have gone on insane runs that make absolutely no sense to me in a way where I need them to stop at once. The Padres are not in that category. I honestly wanna see how far they can take this. Their core's been vivisected and they're still chasing down the Dodgers. Bravo I guess.

Like, this is where I remind myself that baseball doesn't always work logically, because the Padres have their most anonymous rotation in some time, their top two hitters are playing horribly, the young outfielder that was supposed to carry onto the next decade isn't doing great, and they're honestly closer to a rebuild than competition honestly. And yet...they're 7 games over .500, a half-game behind the Dodgers and playing...yes, GOOD baseball. I just don't understand it. On paper it's not a good team, especially without Machado and Tatis's better numbers. You look at Fernando Tatis now and something is just plain broken. He hasn't hit any home runs, or really anything at all, and he's trying to get by on speed and that's not enough right now. We all saw this guy hit all those home runs, even off the HGHs. And then he gets hurt and...that's really it? 

I dunno, the Seidlers selling this team to a modern ownership group makes me think all hope isn't lost after this year, but if Tatis is gonna be doing that, Machado's gonna be hitting .190 and Jackson Merrill's gonna be plainly mediocre, you can't expect to stuff this team with contracts and see it rise up. The Mets are proving why this doesn't work, and they're proving it for like the third time. Build a team, don't plant it in the ground and watch as it grows backwards. Yeesh.

I think the reason the Padres are still surging right now is the understated strength of the rotation. Yes, even without Joe Musgrove or Nick Pivetta. You have Michael King once again proving the Yankees did a disservice making him a swingman, with a 2.63 ERA and 50 Ks in 9 starts. Randy Vasquez once again has a terrific record simply because he stays in long enough to recoup the win, he's already 4-1 despite a 3.05 ERA and some messier starts. The bullpen is along the same lines as last year's, though noticeably thinner and without a truly healthy Adrian Morejon. Mason Miller's dominance more than makes up for it though. Nice to see he's muzzled Jason Adam, now caught in a thankless setup role, though extremely well at that. Jalen Beeks ain't closing either, so he can't exactly cry favoritism. I am worried about the viability of the carousel of fading starters they have behind the two that work. Griffin Canning's clearly still in disrepair from last year, Walker Buehler's lost his bounce, Marquez didn't work and Waldron's struggling again, then you remember that J.P. Sears and Lucas Giolito are also waiting for their shot. Hopefully they have a better go of things. 

The Padres, even with everything that's misfired, are still a satisfying underdog coming right up against the Dodgers. If a Padres fan that WAS good enough couldn't unseat them last year, maybe a Padres team that isn't will get to do so in 2026. Don't ask me to make it make sense, though.

Coming Tomorrow- It only took a couple weeks for Jays fans to go from 'why did we sign this guy again?' to 'okay, never mind, that's friggin great'. 

Un-X-pected

 

A Padres team desperate for starting pitching, where Fernando Tatis has 0 home runs and Xander Bogaerts has 3, has won 17 games, with 9 of those wins being saved by Mason Miller, who has yet to allow a run. I knew these post-Seidler teams were gonna be weird, but this is wild, guys.

I always expected these Padres teams to come down to Tatis and Machado, and so far neither has been much of a factor. Tatis is technically hitting, and stealing bases, but the power numbers are way down. Machado's hitting .188, and the fear is that the peak years may have subsided. Jackson Merrill is doing *alright*, but he's not 2024 good yet. And so...having Xander Bogaerts around to ace the contact game again is a very good thing. He's looked a bit aimless the last couple years, but now he's back to leading the team in hits and returning to his old power perks. It's a little weird that a team the Padres now needs guys like Ramon Laureano and Miguel Andujar to do a lot of the run production work, but Bogie running things was always a hope when they signed him, and though he's not completely in world-beating mode like he was in Boston, he's still feeling more like himself than he has in a while.

And that's the ultimate feeling. There's a definite spark that is lifting this team over the competition, and it's led to a start that's put them, at long last, at the top of the division with the Dodgers. Now, last year, if you'll recall, the Padres had so many opportunities to gain a cushion against LA but simply could not, due to constantly losing their divisional matchups together. This year, even if there's still some weak spots in the lineup, they've gained enough momentum early to match up to the Dodgers. It's an unassuming Padres team to do this with, but it's appreciated.

Once again, I do worry about the thin rotation aspect. Musgrove isn't back for a couple more weeks, Pivetta's probably mid-May, Canning's second half. They just went and got Lucas Giolito, like they should have two months ago, and Walker Buehler and German Marquez are beginning to wear out their welcomes. Right now it's just Randy Vasquez and Michael King looking halfway decent up there, and while it may be enough for now, there's gonna be a point in the season where you need 5 strong options. I don't care how good your bullpen is, you can't go on 2 sure things and a prayer. It's kind of the exact opposite of the Dodgers' playoff strategy last year, giving all the relief opportunities to starters and hoping the actual relievers don't need to go in.

I still think the Padres can surprise people this year, and if people like Machado, Merrill and Tatis really take off, the Dodgers could have some serious trouble on their hands this year. 

Coming Tonight: I think there was a moment a few years ago where I was beginning to think the hype around this guy could be overblown. I don't anymore. 

The Talent Runs Out

 

D'you think...like, when the Padres traded Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek for Freddy Fermin, someone in the front office, anyone, had the thought of 'wait, is our pitching depth gonna withstand this move?'. Because I'd like to think one of them would have foreseen an April like this one, with a skeleton crew of a rotation trying to prove the team's legitimacy, and maybe gone '...don't we have anyone else we could deal?'

Right now, the Padres' rotation, which used to sport a treasure trove of excellent starting options and was slammed with depth basically every year from 2021 onward, consists of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Maybe three years ago this could have sounded promising. But Marquez is trying to convince people he can still pitch, and he's got a 4.50 ERA and only 5 Ks in 2 starts. Walker Buehler's looking pretty cooked, he's given up 7 earned runs in 6.2 innings. He's basically only starting due to lack of other options. Joe Musgrove is hurt and while he should be back within a month, because he hasn't pitched in a year or so, nobody's quite sure what he's gonna be working with. At some point Griffin Canning will return, but same concern. And so now that we're seeing Michael King and Nick Pivetta being around average so far...the concern grows.

Wildly, the best piece of this rotation so far has been Randy Vasquez, who at least showed promise in a swing role last year. In his first two starts, Vasquez has allowed only 1 earned run, struck out 11 and has a 0.9 WAR. He's displaying the sort of dominance he's wanted to work up towards, and with the number of questionable starting options the Padres have right now, it's a needed security. But considering that this rotation has seen commanding performances from Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Dylan Cease and Musgrove, being down to just 'well Randy Vasquez is here' is a little concerning.

It's even more glaring when you realize that next to no one on this Padres team is currently hitting. Only one guy hitting over .240, and it's Miguel Andujar, who the Padres are wisely starting at DH this year. Everyone else is barely moving the ball, hitting around .220 or just struggling to get anything done. Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Cronenworth and Sheets haven't done much. Xander Bogaerts has done the most contact work but he hasn't exactly gotten people home. A lot of guys on this team are defensive liabilities. And even adding Nick Castellanos didn't seem to work for some reason. You've got a team of overpaid guys not hitting, you bring in Nick Castellanos, what did you expect him to do? Hit?? 

It is, of course, early, and the team could lock into place, but virtually none of their competitors, save for one, have accomplished much this season at all. When the Diamondbacks are looking like the comparative sleeper hit, that's damning. The Padres still have time to erase this deficit, but it's gonna take more than just one series. The tide needs to shift, and this may not be the roster for that to make all the difference.

Coming Tomorrow- Towards the end of last season, a lot of people assumed he'd be traded or dealt with in some other way, and lo and behold he's still as valuable as everyone thought he was, Basallo be damned.

On the Possibility of an American WBC Title, Now

 

[DISCLAIMER: I go into some...unconquered, on purpose, territory with this post, talking about current events. If this one isn't to your liking in that respect, I apologize. This had just been on my mind.]

I can't think about what the U.S. team is thinking about heading into the WBC. It's the most high-stakes low-stakes tournament possible.

Like, say you're Bobby Witt, or whoever. You're a charter member of the US team, a mid-lineup star, and you are being tasked with performing to the best of your ability, for your country, and then after winning this you have to immediately go back and perform to the best of your ability for the Royals in both what could be the last full season for a little while AND the a season that coincides with the 250th anniversary of the country. There are a lot of people who would really like the US to win some sports tournaments this year, considering the WBC is happening, and then the World Cup is happening in North America. And being very honest, there's more of a chance of a WBC Championship title than a FIFA World Title this year. 

Now, the US team has won a WBC before, in 2017. But the stakes were lower, this was before everyone knew who Ohtani was, and this was before it became the tentpole that it is now. Now you've got more of a drive for players to participate, and more pressure for the greats of the game to do it, even if it risks injury. And there's already been nonsense about insurance, teams not sending players out cause they worry they're gonna get hurt, and that's already lightened some roster loads. Yet I think that this is a point where, for some reason, some indistinct reason that isn't coming to mind somehow, the US needs a pride boost. And I think these guys have taken it to heart to embody the sort of patriotic, 'I love America' sensibility to capture the nation. Like apparently they're playing Toby Keith on busrides, going heavy on the patriotism and all of that. And...I say this respectfully, but...I dunno if that's the move, especially when a team that's supposed to reflect the sum of the nation's best ballplayers only has Byron Buxton and Aaron Judge as nonwhite representatives. 

I think this tournament happening right after the Olympics has added more pressure as well, cause there was something where people were representing the country on the world's stage and you saw a contrast of the ways that can be done. You had people all over looking at people like Alysa Liu or Jack Hughes and going 'why aren't they representing America the way I want them to?'. I think both the figure skating win and the hockey wins were good for the country for different reasons, but I think some wins were more reflective of the potential of the American experiment than others. And how that ties into patriotism, especially at this moment, made some wins easier to stomach than others. The immediate contrast between how someone reacts to winning an Olympic medal and then how they rationalize this as a degree of American patriotism could be stark at points. Because it can be argued that representing the country, and all that comes with it, means something different now.

And so that informs a lot of forethought about the WBC, and how a winning US squad will look now, after the Men's Hockey Team's win, in an era where not only is the US team evenly matched in this tournament but there is also the idea of a forthcoming women's baseball league, which will lead to an even larger conversation. What does it mean if this team wins now? Does it mean anything? Is it good for the game, for the country? 

I suppose the upside of this is you get people from the deepest reaches of the country. I think about guys like Mason Miller, who's a local hero in West Virginia for his time as a college athlete there. An old friend who grew up in that area followed Miller to the majors and cheered him on as he became the best relief asset in baseball. Everywhere you've got pockets of people who must have known one of these guys as they came up and got to see them make the majors. That is the American dream, to come from anywhere, from anything, and succeed on the world's stage. 

It's just very difficult to be all 'rah-rah, America's the greatest' right now. Even if there's enough people like Bryce Harper and Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt trying to craft the story of an American monolith that takes down any country in its path...I'm not entirely sure that's an especially helpful narrative at the moment. I'm not saying they should punt the World Baseball Classic, just keel over against the Czechia team or something, but...if they want to look like the heroes this tournament, they need to keep their perception in mind. The 2017 team was exciting because they represented the state of the game, and the country, in an optimistic way. If there's a way for the US team to do that now, they need to figure it out. Because right now, Japan winning is a better story, the Dominican Republic winning is a better story, Puerto Rico winning is a better story, even Czechia and their plumbers and dentists would be an unbelievable story. 

All of those teams don't dream about giving up a home run to Aaron Judge, they think about striking him out. So if we're gonna be the heroes again this time around, we're gonna need to earn it.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Padres

 

The Padres had an opportunity to catch the Dodgers this year. In fact, they had several. And in every series with LA, they failed to capitalize on them. Even in periods where the Dodgers were ailing and could have been knocked down, the Padres still didn't have enough to take them down. Meaning once again, another year of prime Tatis, Machado and Merrill was wasted. Now with Dylan Cease already in Toronto, and a few other pieces on the way out, the Padres really need to figure out if the window has passed, or if they can still chase the top of the division. The Giants definitely are looking to compete next year, and the Dodgers will certainly expect 1st to be theirs. It's just a matter of whether or not the Padres can do this without Cease, Michael King or Robert Suarez.

Or even Luis Arraez, who, at the very least, has been a consistent, contact-friendly presence despite his defense being detrimental to the Padres' gameplan. Arraez hit .292 this year, with a league-leading 181 hits, plus a league-leading 12 sac bunts and 61 RBIs. The defense wasn't great, and he covered 1st for a lot of the season, which is not his best position. That defensive piece is honestly keeping Arraez from being taken seriously as a multi-faceted player, and why a lot of teams probably will not give him a long term deal this year.

2026 Prediction: A lot of people think only a bottom feeder team like the Rockies will take a swing at Arraez, but honestly he'd be perfect for a contact-machine team like the Guardians. Though honestly, with all the rookies he might not have a place to immediately play. 

Since coming over for Juan Soto, Randy Vasquez has been a sneaky favorite in San Diego, and in 2025 did very well in a swing role. Because of all the injuries, he was the third-most prominent starter, with 26 starts, but he did well as a workhorse, with a 3.84 ERA in 133 innings. Vasquez is a good groundout pitcher, with only 78 Ks and 6 wins but a lot of 'keep it in the infield' stuff. Ultimately, once a few more big game pitchers became active he switched to long relief work.

2026 Prediction: A bit better at big games, but less of a sample size.

A lot has been said about this incredible San Diego bullpen, so here's a bit more. Behind Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejón, a longtime member of the staff without the injury luck thus far, was a worthy and powerful setup man, with 13 wins and a 2.08 ERA in 74 innings, and a scoreless run in 4 postseason innings. To put Morejón's 13 wins into perspective, only one Padres starter had that many. And remember, this team made the playoffs. 

2026 Prediction: Knowing Morejon's track record, something will have to give, but he'll be back for the September push.

And then you had Jeremiah Estrada, the pen's go-to strikeout artist, who had 108 this year, the third-most on the whole pitching staff [remember, this team made the playoffs!]. Estrada's ERA was higher than last year, at 3.45, and his WHIP was at 1.164, but he was a very worthy pen option throughout the season.

2026 Prediction: Closer to 2.50 ERA, more consistency, and more appearances.

Yu Darvish has a few more years left on his Padres' contract, despite being 39 and slowing down a bit. He's still the flamethrower of lore, and still flashed the heat over an injury-shortened 15 games. His 5.38 ERA and 5-5 record were signs that he may not have been all the way back yet, and the Cubs had fun with him during the wild card series.

2026 Prediction: Hopefully he's healed up and ready to put in some more work, but he'll turn 40 midyear, and there's a possibility he'll eventually ask the Padres to eat the rest of that contract.

Ryan O'Hearn was supposed to be the kill switch addition at the deadline, giving them one more power bat and letting Luis Arraez take more reps at DH. Unfortunately, the power swell O'Hearn caught in Baltimore wore off a little in San Diego, as he hit .276 with 4 homers and 20 RBIs. They were decent numbers, but not ASG quality. He also went 2-9 in the playoffs.

2026 Prediction: Has a fuller, more confident year, more in the same vein as his 2024 in Baltimore. 

In a surprise move, the Padres traded Brandon Lockridge to the Brewers, as they needed an extra option in CF during Chourio's injury, in exchange for Nestor Cortes. Cortes had a rough go at the beginning of the year, and his first start resulted in 3 straight homers from his old team. In San Diego he fared a little better, though he ended the season with a 5.47 ERA and 21 Ks in 6 games. 

2026 Prediction: Gotta work his way back up again. At the deadline, everyone will understand it was just a rough rehabbing stretch.

Coming Tomorrow- A bunch of leftovers from a Phillies team that, once again, could not survive a first round bye.