Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Pinpointing the Mirage

 


After three games against the Twins, the St. Louis Cardinals were undefeated. After two games against the Angels they're closer to .500. I'm trying to figure out how this makes sense.

So. Alright, we've established the Twins aren't very good this year. They're not hitting, they're not doing anything. They just won a game last night by attacking the White Sox's bullpen but Carlos Correa hasn't gotten a hit yet. So the Cardinals, in that three game sweep, matched up well against them. Both catchers had great series's, Gray and Fedde had great starts, Arenado's going off on a tear purely out of revenge. So from that, you can make the argument, oh, okay, the Cardinals are back. They'll be a factor this year.

...and so the 'dropping two to the Angels' thing is where I'm having trouble following.

The Angels, regardless of what their current record might tell you, aren't very good this year either. The offensive production they're getting this year is in spite of droughts from Mike Trout and Jorge Soler. All of their starters have given up some runs [save for the impenetrable Jose Soriano]. Their bullpen, however, might be the real deal. Jansen's been excellent in the ninth, Detmers and Anderson have no trouble in relief jobs, and there's guys like Brock Burke, Ben Joyce and Ryan 'never played a day in the minors' Johnson, who's snagged a save and a win already despite some run leakage. 

But all their wins have been close, and led by clutch hitting and contact work. Kyren Paris is the team's best hitter. The wins, as close as they are, are deserved, because the right people are coming through at the right time.

So...where does that leave the Cardinals? They're better than a bad team, but worse than an okay team with good parts? Are they...still in the bottom half of the standings?

If anything, the Cardinals should be proud that the things they were struggling to activate last year are working now. Jordan Walker, Victor Scott and Lars Nootbaar are all hitting. For Walker it's a welcome development after years of just not hitting at MLB levels. He's hitting .429 with 6 hits, 2 RBIs and a homer. Scott, meanwhile, is hitting .350 with 5 RBIs and 4 stolen bases. And even if Winn and Contreras haven't done anything yet, there's enough in this lineup that has me convinced they're gonna be better this year. I still think Matthew Liberatore getting a rotation spot over Steven Matz isn't a great idea, but perhaps this is finally the year Liberatore clicks as well. 

Like a lot of records in the first week, the Cardinals' decent record will be tested by their next series against a proven, good team. And ultimately that might be coming very soon, with the Sox coming to town. It'll be interesting to see how they do there, and if the trends continue.

Coming Tonight: The first complete game shutout of the season was thanks to this guy. 

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