Arch Arrival

 You know, 30 years ago, if a guy spent his first three seasons in the majors striking out 100 times without hitting anywhere above .200 and then suddenly becomes a consistent and powerful hero, it's because of one of two things. Either he's juicing...or he's just a late bloomer. And there weren't really a lot of late bloomers in the 90s because all the late bloomers just took steroids. 

But now that the development periods are different, you either get people who get called up in their early 20s and waste no time, people who don't get called up til their mid-to-late 20s and make it count, or people who get called up in their early 20s, struggle for a couple years and then after the MLB development time lock into place. And even if I prefer players get called up in their early 20s, we have seen that more frequently nowadays. Casey Mize was like that, Jo Adell was like that, Nico Hoerner was like that, and now Jordan Walker is like that. For three years he was absolutely unfit for the majors, and struggled to do anything at the plate. Now he is 25, and he's hit 7 home runs in 15 games. Keep in mind that his previous single season home run total is 16, from his rookie season in 2023.

Just when the novelty was running out, Jordan Walker's apparently arrived. And that really says a lot about the Cardinals. They know people were just giving up on them, and they're still finding ways to surprise people. Jordan Walker hitting home runs left and right is one way, Gorman and Burleson forming a pretty solid power core finally is another. The Cardinals don't have a ton to work with this year, but they're still not completely out of the conversation.

First of all, as was becoming evident last season, the bullpen. Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero, George Soriano and Gordon Graceffo have had terrific springs so far, with O'Brien and Romero having yet to give up an earned run. O'Brien has also moved into a consistent 9th inning spot, and that's gone super well so far. Soriano is looking way better in St. Louis than he did in Miami. And even if it's very clear that something is very wrong with Matt Svanson, the core of this bullpen is definitely enough to really rest on. Getting McGreevy, Liberatore and Leahy to provide more consistent starting protection is the next step, but considering this is a year where, for the first time in ages, the Cardinals really don't have a proven ace, I think it's logical that this group takes some time to find itself. Who knows, it could be somebody like Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Brycen Mautz or Cooper Hjerpe. Then again I'm mostly just waiting for Jurrangelo Cijntje to come up cause I wanna say his name. Ooh, those dutch pronunciations are fun!

I think with J.J. Wetherholt in this lineup, the Cardinals stand more of a chance in the long run. If Wetherholt and Winn are gonna be there for a while, that's a perfectly respectable foundation to work around, and the pieces are gonna fall into place. I think it does mean Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera might need to go at the deadline, because I don't know if they'll be able to break even by July. But it does show more optimism and forward momentum than the team had in the last few years. 

Who knows, with an organization as well-run as the Cardinals' maybe it'll take far less than 11 years to rebound from a stunning playoff loss to the Phillies.

Coming Tonight: One of the best power-hitting catchers in the AL. Very glad he's out of New York for a bit. 

Pinpointing the Mirage

 

After three games against the Twins, the St. Louis Cardinals were undefeated. After two games against the Angels they're closer to .500. I'm trying to figure out how this makes sense.

So. Alright, we've established the Twins aren't very good this year. They're not hitting, they're not doing anything. They just won a game last night by attacking the White Sox's bullpen but Carlos Correa hasn't gotten a hit yet. So the Cardinals, in that three game sweep, matched up well against them. Both catchers had great series's, Gray and Fedde had great starts, Arenado's going off on a tear purely out of revenge. So from that, you can make the argument, oh, okay, the Cardinals are back. They'll be a factor this year.

...and so the 'dropping two to the Angels' thing is where I'm having trouble following.

The Angels, regardless of what their current record might tell you, aren't very good this year either. The offensive production they're getting this year is in spite of droughts from Mike Trout and Jorge Soler. All of their starters have given up some runs [save for the impenetrable Jose Soriano]. Their bullpen, however, might be the real deal. Jansen's been excellent in the ninth, Detmers and Anderson have no trouble in relief jobs, and there's guys like Brock Burke, Ben Joyce and Ryan 'never played a day in the minors' Johnson, who's snagged a save and a win already despite some run leakage. 

But all their wins have been close, and led by clutch hitting and contact work. Kyren Paris is the team's best hitter. The wins, as close as they are, are deserved, because the right people are coming through at the right time.

So...where does that leave the Cardinals? They're better than a bad team, but worse than an okay team with good parts? Are they...still in the bottom half of the standings?

If anything, the Cardinals should be proud that the things they were struggling to activate last year are working now. Jordan Walker, Victor Scott and Lars Nootbaar are all hitting. For Walker it's a welcome development after years of just not hitting at MLB levels. He's hitting .429 with 6 hits, 2 RBIs and a homer. Scott, meanwhile, is hitting .350 with 5 RBIs and 4 stolen bases. And even if Winn and Contreras haven't done anything yet, there's enough in this lineup that has me convinced they're gonna be better this year. I still think Matthew Liberatore getting a rotation spot over Steven Matz isn't a great idea, but perhaps this is finally the year Liberatore clicks as well. 

Like a lot of records in the first week, the Cardinals' decent record will be tested by their next series against a proven, good team. And ultimately that might be coming very soon, with the Sox coming to town. It'll be interesting to see how they do there, and if the trends continue.

Coming Tonight: The first complete game shutout of the season was thanks to this guy. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Cardinals

 

It's kind of wild to me that, despite the numerous elements of this Cardinals team that continued to disappoint this year, and despite this being the second year in a row where they didn't make the playoffs despite having, fundamentally, the team to do so, the Cardinals finished in 2nd place, and over .500. In a division where the Reds went in competitive and the Pirates sparked fire midyear, the Cardinals still finished ahead of them. 

Granted, the Cardinals and Cubs tied for second, but the Cardinals will take the formality. It's enough to say it was at least an improvement, and that means management can keep Oli Marmol and continue the current path of mediocrity.

And I have to stress, this is good for me. I'm enjoying the Cardinals not being competitive. This, the Patriots and the Cowboys at the same time? This is great! But you get the sense that this could be avoided if everyone, including ownership, was on the same page. And they're not. So we got this Cardinals team that is simultaneously too past their prime to make an impact and too inexperienced to factor into anything. Having a rotation of guys over 35 and an outfield of guys under 25 is really pulling things in two different directions, and hopefully this team picks a side going forward.

It's been clear that since winning the MVP, Paul Goldschmidt has backed off of his prime offensive material, and 2024 was the biggest taste of mediocrity yet for the future Hall of Fame corner infield. For the first time since his rookie year, the 36-year-old had a bWAR figure below ten, just a measly 3. This year he hit .245 with 22 homers and 65 RBIs, and ended with a 1.3 WAR, a new career low for a full season. In fairness, he has been at this for a while, and he did have ten or so years where he was one of the best pure hitters in baseball, including the majority of his 30s to this point. So after everything he's given the Cardinals, he didn't owe them much else in the final year of his contract. But it does feel like a disappointment still.

2025 Prediction: Gee, Paul Goldschmidt is a couple years away from retirement and his old team might have an opening at 1st base. I wonder what's gonna happen!

I think I'm mostly impressed that the Cardinals' Miles Mikolas experiment, which began with a signing out of Japan in 2018, has lasted this long. True, there was an injury break in the middle, but Mikolas has persisted as a staple of the team's rotations even stretching into 2024. Now, granted, Mikolas is now 36 and is very much the product of multiple surgeries, but he still started 32 games this season. Granted, he went 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA, plus a -0.2 WAR, but he still ate innings and struck out 122. I think they just needed reliable arms this year, and for one of the guys in their 30s to be that must have helped considering how many weren't.

2025 Prediction: He's got one more year left on the contract, but does he have anything left in the tank for it? Maybe a little?

For the second consecutive season, despite the idea that he might finally do so, Jordan Walker just didn't happen. The Cardinals' hopes are high for this guy, he has all the potential, but it's just not happening at an MLB level yet. In 51 games he hit .201 with 33 hits, 5 homers, 20 RBIs and 50 strikeouts. Bringing up Victor Scott II was just as problematic, as Scott is doing the same high-strikeout/no-payoff stuff as Walker right now.

2025 Prediction: Walker will be 23. I say something finally happens this year, though not at full power yet. 

Thanks to a midyear injury to Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera went from backup to everyday backstop, and it went alright for him. The 24-year-old hit .301 with 69 hits, 27 RBIs and 5 homers in 72 games, making him one of the most important contact hitters on the team. Unfortunately his defense isn't great. And with Contreras moving to 1st base next year, Herrera being the primary backstop might mean the years of exemplary defense behind the plate in St. Louis may be coming to an end.

2025 Prediction: Maybe not AS useful as a contact hitter, but still a key part of this team. I don't think he'll be the primary catcher all year though. They're gonna get somebody at this rate.

So. You start the season with an outfield arrangement of Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker and Victor Scott. You've got to send two of them down, and Nootbaar will be back at some point, plus Brendan Donovan can play left. So you're missing a piece that can stay in place. So...it's wild that the Cardinals not only went with former Reds castoff Michael Siani, but that he actually worked out for them. Siani made the CF spot his own, and in 124 games provided some of the best defense of the OF unit [yes, even better than Noot], despite some middling offensive results. Siani got hurt with 2 months to go, and thus the team had to call on Walker again, but it's nice to know he'll be an option for the Cards going forward.

2024 Prediction: Siani's gonna chase a gold glove next year, and perhaps be the OF anchor the team's always needed. He'll hit .250 in addition.

The Phillies, it's clear, won their side of the trade that brought Edmundo Sosa to their bench, but it's important to note that the Cardinals' return, reliever JoJo Romero, has also been pretty nice for them. Romero peaked midyear, but still finished with a 3.36 ERA and a 7-3 record in 65 appearances. Generally, the Cardinals' bullpen was pretty strong this year, and if Romero sticks around they could build something.

2025 Prediction: Not quite as consistent but will be on call for the whole season.

You'd probably have needed ample knowledge of baseball reference dot com to know that up until 2023, the longest tenured Tampa Bay Ray was not Brandon Lowe but, rather, reliever Andrew Kittredge, who capped off seven seasons with the club last year. In Tampa, that's the equivalent of a 20-year career. Kittredge had been hurt since his ASG season in 2021, and was traded due to those diminishing returns. But the Cardinals put Kittredge to good use, as he had his fullest season to date, and clearly his best since 2021. In 75 appearances, Kittredge had a 2.80 ERA with 67 Ks. With the exception of Matthew Liberatore, who started a few games, Kittredge got the most use of any Cardinals reliever this year.

2025 Prediction: It'd be really nice if Kittredge got 2 straight consistent, healthy seasons...but this is the 2020s, and he's 35. So probably a step or so down.

Andre Pallante has been an integral swingman for the last few years of Cardinals baseball, going from an impressive fifth starter in 2022 to a strong longman reliever last year. This year, Pallante, like in 2022, started in the pen and got to start 20 games as the options lessened. Despite an 8-8 record he had a 3.68 ERA and 94 Ks, and kept at it as the workload increased in the final months of the year,

2025 Prediction: Gets to start from the jump and provides consistency throughout, even if he's not the flashiest pitcher out there.

2024 marked Matt Carpenter's return to the Cardinals, after a wild couple years DHing for New York and San Diego. I have no idea what happened to bring on Carpenter's June 2022, but it may not happen again, as Carpenter's back to low average stuff as a depth bat. In 59 games, he hit .234 with 4 homers and 15 RBIs. 

2025 Prediction: I assume he hangs it up but he could still be convinced he has something left and sign somewhere he can play regularly.

Speaking of low risk veteran pickups, Brandon Crawford played for the Cardinals this year, in a tenure that will really only be good to freak out Giants fans by reminding them of its existence. Not only was Crawford battling an exceptional Masyn Winn performance for SS starts, but he's 37 and doesn't really have his strongest stuff anymore. In 28 games he hit .169 and was below average in the infield, meaning he was let go mid year.

2025 Prediction: Retirement.

And because there was a definite chance of creeping into the wild card race, the Cardinals made deals at the deadline, including being a part of the blockbuster that brought Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech, ultimately, their rings. But for a while it looked like the Cardinals got the better end of the deal, getting Erick Fedde, one of the biggest assets the White Sox had in the first half. Ultimately, once he got to St. Louis, the magic wore off for Fedde, as he went 2-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 starts. Not that this was a bad run, but compared to his 4.7 WAR first half with Chicago it was ultimately forgettable.

2025 Prediction: Fedde will be the Cardinals' best starter next year. He may not get the whole season to savor it, but he'll find whatever he had in Chicago again.

And though he ended the season with Kansas City, Tommy Pham did return to St. Louis for a month as part of the blockbuster deal. The idea was to bring back an old favorite and get him back to the playoffs, and while Pham had been strong with the White Sox, he only hit .206 with 12 RBIs and 2 homers in 23 games for the Cardinals. His big highlight was hitting a grand slam in his first at-bat of the season for St. Louis. He never got back to that feeling on that side of Missouri, and had a much better fall for the Royals.

2025 Prediction: A new, unique team will be added to Pham's bingo card to join the other nine he's already played for. My pick: Pittsburgh. 

Coming Tomorrow- As close as the Cardinals got this year, the Cubs got closer. But, for the second year in a row, the postseason was too far. 

Bare Jordan

 

Remember back in March when the prospect of a Jordan Walker rookie card left the promise of dollar signs in the eyes of prospectors? 

Oh man, what a year it's been. Jordan Walker began his career with an incredible hitting streak, then stopped hitting, got himself demoted, then was promoted again when the bottom fell out of the Cardinals' season, and instead of being a prevailing force of contact hitting for this team, he's...just kinda there.

And so even as Walker's rookie cards are hitting the streets, and are probably well peppered throughout the products Topps has planned through the end of the year, the rookie right fielder is currently hitting .260 with 76 hits, 35 RBIs and 11 home runs. Brendan Donovan is out for the rest of the year, and there's a decent chance he'll still finish the season with more hits than Walker. That is how things have gone for him. And after how confident he felt in his initial few weeks, I'm honestly really sad to see this.

To be honest, there's a lot of 'can't miss' Cardinals prospects that have missed quite a bit this year, aside from Walker. Matthew Liberatore, who was getting raves back in the Rays organization, has a 6.12 ERA in 11 starts, and still doesn't seem to be too prepared for MLB work. Masyn Wynn, brought up this week to succeed Paul DeJong at short, has yet to bat a run in through 3 games. Luken Baker, a DH who's hit 33 home runs in Memphis this year, still has yet to hit his first Cardinals homer. Even Alec Burleson, who was given a much fuller role for 2023, is only hitting .243 with 28 RBIs in 89 games. The Cardinals have brought up Drew Rom, a pitching prospect they received from the Orioles last month, and as I write this he's being lit up by the Pirates, a team desperate to stay ahead of them in the standings. 

As good as these prospects are, maybe there's just something keeping the Cardinals down this year, and not just the team but the people who've left the team. If you ask me, maybe that playoff loss last year lifted the curse against the Phillies and brought it on them, and that'd be really delicious if that was it. Maybe it's Oli Marmol, maybe he just can't get a solid team together. Honestly, it may just not be this organization's year, much like it's not the Yankees' year. 

A common theme through a lot of teams that have suffered greatly this year, including the Cardinals, Yankees, Pirates, White Sox, A's and Tigers, is that they're all 100+ year old organizations. Meanwhile, some of the best teams this year have been teams like the Rays, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Brewers, Rangers and Blue Jays, all formed in the last half-century [give or take a few years]. Even if a lot of the still-competitive teams are ones that have been lucky lately, like the Dodgers, Astros and Red Sox, the cutting out of the old standard guys who always win does give other teams a chance to create some highlights, as well as a chance for teams like the Mariners, Brewers, Rays, Padres or Rangers to win their first organizational rings, or teams like the Twins, Reds, Jays, Marlins and Phillies to win their first in decades. 

The Cardinals will compete again, perhaps as soon as next year. But them not competing this year, if you can believe it, is good for the rest of the league. And if you're genuinely worried about Jordan Walker, fear not: it took Bobby Witt a year or so to get it, and Walker's still only 21. It'll happen eventually, I reckon.

Coming Tomorrow- A trusted starting pitcher for a team that picked the exact wrong time to get swept.