Championship Series' Day 5: Seed Change

 

We haven't had a buildup to a World Series appearance like this since 2016. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have made the NLCS four times since 2010, which is more than they had in their entire history to that point. They had a tremendous team in 2011 that ran the NL Central on the backs of Braun and Fielder, the culmination of a five year build, then took the Dodgers to Game 7 in 2018 only to lose anyway, then got swept last year without a fight. And in this time, I can count a handful of seasons where the Brewers had a genuinely great team but failed to capitalize. The 2014 team, which for a while was the best in the NL but ran out of steam in the second half and paved the way for the Cardinals to take the division. The 2023 and 2024 teams, which were good enough to compete but still got bounced in the wild card round either way. Arguably even the 1992 team, which won 92 games but got outweighed for a playoff spot. There have been so many missed opportunities, so many 'so close' finishes, so many great regular seasons that led to a disappointing playoff exit. 

So when this specific Brewers team won 103 games, notched a first seed spot and looked to take on the league, I hoped that the same thing wouldn't happen again. So many Brewers teams have deserved a strong finish but never seemed to pull it off. This team, as good as they were, could be the latest, especially with the inevitability of a run-in with LA.

Well...tonight, the Brewers finished off a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers, marked with two road wins, and two epic comebacks. They used contact flair to subdue the Dodgers' bullpen, and had hero moments come from Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell and, yes, David Hamilton, the utility man they got from the Red Sox in exchange for Caleb Durbin, who had the RBI single that started the rally and the solo homer that padded the lead. A team where someone like David Hamilton, or Aaron Ashby, or Jojo Romero, can be the hero, beating the Los Angeles Dodgers on a night where Shohei Ohtani hit a 3-run home run...that is something special. They've done it like this all season, and it's translated to October success. 

I'm really excited to see this team in a World Series. Chourio, Miz, Contreras, Turang, Bauers and Henderson could continue their strong Octobers and become definite franchise legends. I see them winning against either AL team, especially if they made quick work of LA this week. Genuinely heartened to see this team triumph, hope there's more to come.

The Dodgers...I mean, the last thing you can say about this Dodgers team is that they didn't try. This whole threepeat quest has come from an amount of effort that virtually no other team has, and a collection of talent that practically always does what they're supposed to. This is a team built for long term October success the way few others even dream of. The ability to have Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Andy Pages, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on the same team, all working hard enough to make titles happen, is surprisingly rare in this climate of 'well if we fill seats and sell merch it doesn't matter whether or not we win'. Most teams are fine running a business rather than running a ball club, the Dodgers can do both successfully.

They built this team for a third title. They got Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz, and then they got Tarik Skubal. They did everything to make this happen. That it didn't is no fault of theirs, and mostly the fault of general MLB atrophy. Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and, yes, Tucker, were all bound to have down seasons eventually. Ohtani, by the end of the season, wasn't pitching and was struggling at the plate. Betts and Freeman are good but not elite anymore. They got to both Yamamoto and Snell, and eventually Glasnow. And Kyle Tucker had a perfectly mediocre season that finally got going in the first month, and gelled into a .300 October with some helpful contact hits tonight. That none of them ever got him home is more the fault of the rest of the team. Same with Edwin Diaz putting his all into a 3-inning relief appearance only to end up padding the Brewers' lead anyway. Even the best of effort still isn't enough sometimes. So now you know how the other 29 teams have felt the last few seasons.

The Dodgers will certainly be back. The rumor is they want to restructure Tucker's contract, and while they're definitely gonna make an effort to sign Skubal, will he want to stay in LA, especially if they're not a proven championship team anymore? They still have the big guns, but how will Freeman, Hernandez, Betts, Muncy and Snell even look next year? Will it really be on Andy Pages and Josue de Paula to keep things moving? Or will it be another business as usual season with yet another World Series appearance? All of this assuming the owners actually let us find out by the way.

People won't want to hear it, but the Dodgers losing here was the right outcome. They're not done, but this wasn't their best team, and if they'd made it to the end anyway with it, it wouldn't really be fair.

There was another game played as well today, and this was somehow the more cut-and-dry one. Solid enough stuff from both teams, but the game came down to Petey Halpin, the defensive center field option, hitting a 2-run home run off of Rays fifth starter Griffin Jax. No wonder they pushed this up to 1. The other series is 'Jackson Chourio hitting a home run off Blake Snell in LA', this is 'welcome to Cleveland, y'wanna watch Steven Kwan rob Richie Palacios of a triple?' It's much different. NOT BAD. This is still fun and I want it to go all 7, which it might. But I can see why the league is downplaying it. 

The Guardians have gotten 2 wins from the toughest team in the AL, and have done it on the backs of Gavin Williams, who struck out everybody, and Foster Griffin, who banked more on leverage. The Guardians are probably throwing out Tanner Bibee tomorrow, while the Rays might go to Nick Martinez. Very soon, the Rays are gonna be out of viable starting arms, while the Guards could very easily go with Joey Cantillo without much issue. All that remains is for the Guardians to keep outhitting this Rays team, which is still difficult considering Simpson and Mesa still had some things to say today.

But...the Guardians held the Rays, known for their contact magic, to three hits today. That's huge. It can be done. I'm not sure if it can be done two more times before the Rays have their say, but it can be done.

Obviously I'd prefer the Guardians to take this one, but if the Rays can do it and we get a battle of the 1 seeds, that'll still make a pretty exciting World Series, so at this point I can't lose.

Championship Series' Day 4: Jake Beats Blake

 

Now are ya listening? Now are ya paying attention? The Brewers are 3 up on the Dodgers, and have put them in killswitch position. The press has been hyping up the Dodgers' threepeat narrative all year, even saw this series as a back-and-forth brawl, and...the Brewers are up 3-0. Against the monolith. 

The wild part was, until that seventh inning, Blake Snell was having the better start. Bobby Gasser was keeping the score down for the most part, but Snell, leadoff homer notwithstanding, worked, striking out 9 in 6 innings. But, in a mirror to Kevin Cash's decision to pull Snell prematurely in the 2020 World Series, Dave Roberts let Snell go out for one more, then the Jake Bauers homer happens, the Mitchell homer happens, and the rest of the game doesn't really come any closer to a Dodgers' win. Ironic, I guess. Dave Roberts might lose this series by trying to out manage Kevin Cash before he even gets to play against him.

Also, the Dodgers' mistakes are beginning to pile up. Justin Wrobleski went wild and a run scored. Shohei Ohtani still isn't hitting at all, and now Freeman and Pages might be going cold. The bullpen the Dodgers worked so hard to avoid using last year is once again blowing games, save for Evan Phillips. And meanwhile, the Brewers are just the better team right now. The defense has been excellent, especially the outfield defense Mitchell and Lara are working with. The bullpen, regardless of Abner Uribe's shoddy work, is still great, and D.L. Hall gets the added kudos for keeping down the Dodgers for two and a third as the Brewers kept plugging away. Chourio's RBIs are continuing to pile up, chasing Andruw Jones' pre-23 record. The road loss narrative is over, the flaws haven't really been showing up. 

One more win and the Brewers do something they haven't done since 1982. Tyler Glasnow will get the ball to prevent it from happening, though I assume he won't be the only one trying to keep the Dodgers alive, as those ratings have gotten be occurring to Manfred about now. The one concerning thing is I'm not sure who the Brewers will start. Dustin May? He's had a spotty track record. Shane Drohan or Kyle Harrison? Or would they need to be opened for? My wild card pick is Chad Patrick. Let him do 3 innings, then have Drohan or May coast, and hopefully that works. The goal is that whatever the plan ends up being will be enough to stop LA, and this has worked so far. 

A sweep would be insane. It's not definite, because these are still the Dodgers, but...what if, man? Especially after 2025. What if that's what happens?

Division Series' Day 5: Three Endings and One Second Act

 

Second consecutive section of the playoffs where three series' leave the other one hanging.

The sugarplums have faded a bit in Chicago. They all thought the sweep was possible and then they remember, 'oh right, we've only got one good starter and a bunch of guys we'd rather have do 3 innings of relief'. And so Game 3 was a 9-3 Cleveland victory, because they had Foster Griffin for most of the game and he did more than Davis Martin, Noah Schultz or David Sandlin could.

It's very relieving that the Guardians' lineup finally showed up, as people worried they wouldn't [I mean what kind of team would just refuse to hit in a postseason series after dominating offensively all season, right?]. Kwan, Ramirez, Adell, Rocchio and Angel Genao all had excellent plate appearances, and J-Ram quieted any worry he'd be an ineffective postseason piece this year with that game-deciding 2-run triple. 

The White Sox are still in prime position, but they need to cling onto that momentum before the Guardians force a Game 5. 

So the Dodgers are going to another NLCS, and they did it behind their fourth man, who'd really be their second man if injuries hadn't happened. Tyler Glasnow was very good, only giving up one run, and making the work easy for the bullpen. Max Muncy and Andy Pages continued their strong postseasons. They made this one look pretty simple honestly, because they have contingency plans for everything. I'm not calling them a lock for the World Series right now, but it is looking likelier than it was a couple weeks ago, even with their NLCS opponent looking pretty strong.

As for the Braves...I think the first hint that this wasn't the team was that it took them 3 games to eliminate the Phillies when, if they were at their peak, it would have taken them two.

The tragedy about the Braves is that the highlights of this team were so high [Baldwin, Sale, Olson] that once you look below them you see how little depth there was this year. Tyler Mahle was a crucial postseason starter because Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep were nowhere to be found this year. Guys like Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas were novel ideas that went nowhere. The season came down to Raisel Iglesias, and they've had better versions of him.

Next year they're more likely to compete than Philly, but I don't necessarily think they'll run unopposed. 

The Rays are tough, man. They solidified themselves as a World Series threat in this series, and are the team to beat going forward. The ALCS will go through Tampa, either top starter remaining hasn't had the luck Drew Rasmussen has, and Caminero's only just begun. Though Victor Mesa Jr. will be linked to the controversial overturned home run call from this game, his homer in the sixth sealed the game and ensured the sweep would happen. A guy like Mesa, who was an insanely cheap preseason pickup for Tampa this year, has made this team pop as much as people like Ryan Vilade, Bryan Baker, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Martinez had. It's the usual Rays-ball mentality of putting the best people in position to succeed, regardless of how much they're making, and it may get them a franchise-first ring. 

That does mean that of the AL candidates, the most recent World Series winner remaining is the Chicago White Sox. Let's keep in mind for a second that the Brewers have never one won, and we really only have one recent W.S. winner remaining at all...and I think you can see where I'll be rooting from here on out. 

I'm running out of things to say in Octobers about this team, guys. Every year 'this is the team', every year 'look at them go', and every year 'what happened?' 

Is it really the case of the Red Sox being so out of steam that they were that easy for the Yanks to beat, and the Rays were so good that none of that production could be mustered? Or did the Yankees once again completely stop working once they got to the division series round? Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and Austin Wells didn't get that memo though, as they all had terrific series. Anthony Volpe also did a nice amount, though in a just world that homer isn't overturned and the Rays run out of good relievers before we do. Ultimately the stamina was not there. Back in the day we didn't have an extra month of the season, it was like two weeks, and some teams are way better at prepping a team for seven months than others. The Yankees are absolutely shit at it. If this was the old playoff bracket they'd have enough momentum to last but they tap out around this time of year every time, and they're not getting any better. It's not 2006 anymore, this isn't sustainable. 

Next year, Judge will be healthy, Jones and Lombard will be everyday options, and Schlittler, Fried, Cole and Rodon will all be healthy and ready to go. If the owners waste what could be a terrific Yankees year before the Yankees themselves can, I'll be pretty mad. 

Anyway, we knew the Brewers had the edge in this series, but man this one was competitive. Back and forth, lead changes, lots of heroes on both sides. That the Brewers pulled it out should not be a knock on SD, they had a great series but just weren't the better team. Robert Gasser was able to be the hero in a start, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 run. He's not as flashy as Miz and Henderson, but he gets the job done. Once again Chourio was the hero, but Sal Frelick and especially Garrett Mitchell had some big moments. 

The Brewers once again have to go through LA to make it to a World Series. But now they can win on the road, and they'll be starting in Milwaukee. And this team's even better than last year's. I think that NLCS could go all seven, and the Dodgers may not have the lay up they had last year.

Again, the Padres tried, and they could have advanced had it not been for a really strong opponent. They did a lot with some gaping holes, and having only 1 real viable postseason starter kind of did them in ultimately. I also think having to put guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor high in the lineup illuminated the lack of real depth unfortunately. Not to knock Samad Taylor, he had a nice season this year and may have finally found a place he can stick around. But Samad Taylor is not Jake Bauers, or Garrett Mitchell, or Joey Ortiz. I assume they will probably be in the mix next year, but the D-Backs will probably want revenge again.

Tonight we see if the White Sox can close things out. I kinda hope they do.

Division Series' Day 3 & 4: The Picture is Forming

 

I wasn't really around the last few days, and I probably should do write ups on these games, just for posterity's sake, so, here goes.

-The White Sox becoming a postseason juggernaut was not something I was predicting but I'm very much here for it. A lot of Cleveland fans are chalking this up to the Guardians' own post-September fade for the second year in a row, but it's important to note that Gavin Williams wasn't the problem that game, and the offense still did what they could. The White Sox are just better right now, and their core is coming to life in a way that feels like it was teased all year but never certain. The usual combo of Murakami, Vargas, Meidroth and Chase Montgomery is getting it done, and rookie Braden Montgomery joined the fun Monday night, with the RBI double that flipped the game.

The Sox are in clinching position today. I know people talked about their side of the bracket as a joke compared to the AL East side but you really never know. The White Sox, if they make the ALCS, could in all theory keep going, regardless of who they play. It's fascinating, but they've got a higher power on their side it seems. 

Speaking of teams that have given up...

I think the difference between the grievances of Guardians fans and the grievances of Yankee fans right now is that the Yankees are actually playing a really good team. NOT THAT THE WHITE SOX AREN'T, they ARE very good, but they are very streaky, and have gotten hot at the exact right time. The Rays are actually a fantastic team that's playing very well right now and have enough put together that a World Series is very much in reach. They also got Freddy Peralta working again, as he dealt against the Yanks even after Drew Rasmussen quieted them earlier. If Peralta is *back*, like fully back, then the Rays could be a nightmare going forward. 

The Yanks did not help matters by making numerous errors and doing nothing at the plate [not you Ben Rice you're doin great]. Aaron Boone finally seems to have an incentive to change the lineup, seeing as the season's on the line and all tonight and if they get swept in front of a home crowd, the fans might genuinely riot. I'm really hoping the Yanks keep the series alive, but they've run out of momentum and the Schlittler card couldn't even save them in Game 2. 

Anyway it must have been a rerun last night because Enrique Hernandez, after hitting .150 during the regular season, had a huge home run against the Braves and brought the Dodgers closer to an NLCS. Hernandez is moving further and further up the postseason home run leaderboard, which is wild for a player who constantly seems otherwise inconsequential during the regular season. It's absolutely wild that he's allowed to do that. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman just keeps hackin' away and is continuing HIS excellent October luck, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto had another insanely dominant October start. This team really is built for October in a way that no other team is, and the Braves need to figure out if they have anyone at all capable of keeping them down. 

And finally...good for the Padres, honestly. Facing the Brewers' worst starter and a couple of their weakest relievers, they got ahead, hit another ball to the rookie shortstop which he floundered, and kept the Brewers down without Mason Miller. If things go awry tonight, which is always likely, at least they had a cool home win, and at least Jake Cronenworth, after a rough season, got to be the hero by breaking the game open with a homer. 

The stat people are beginning to worry about is that, as good as the Brewers have been in the Pat Murphy era, they're terrible on the road. If the Padres force a Game 5, that'll be yet another road opportunity wasted. Plus, Christian Yelich had his first postseason RBI since 2018, so he's turning things around. Maybe the rest of the team will too. They have Bobby Gasser on the mound tonight, hoping to seal the deal and make another NLCS. I'm kinda pulling for them, even though the Padres may be equally worthy given their recent rallies. 

A lot could happen tonight. All four could end tonight. I don't think they all will, and I kinda hope one team avoids a sweep, but...I guess we'll see.

Division Series' Day 1: Taste the Ceiling

 

It's so cool that one year into the Munetaka Murakami experience he's hitting postseason home runs. That was not his intention. He specifically wanted to play for a lower-tier team, like in Japan, and be a crowd favorite. And then suddenly he immediately becomes a playoff fixture. And he just hit a home run off one of the best pitchers in the AL. One Hundred. 

The Sox are the true underdog team of this postseason, and there really aren't a ton of underdog teams in the running. Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, none of them are really underdogs. Brewers maybe? Cause they're a less expensive team? But they're still the best team in baseball. The White Sox squeaked in, have a ton of young talent, took down the Astros and are now leveling Cleveland with their best guys rested. They shut out the Guardians, needing only a few hits to do so, and now have an edge going into Monday, where it's probably Davis Martin or Sean Burke getting the ball. The complexity of the pitching staff is really impressing me, because Anthony Kay and Jordan Hicks can step in for a spot job and Grant Taylor can work a 4 inning save. There's no rules. 

I will say, Gavin Williams vs. this offense may result in a much tighter game, but I'm still down for whatever happens here.

[yawn]

Yeah, I know some cool things happened in this one, Tarik Skubal pitching a gem, Kyle Tucker finally coming alive, all that, but...this is so boring, guys. Dave Roberts said that he's already planning the pitching rotation with the NLCS in mind. Like, that is such a pompous statement. He already thinks he's winning this season. If the Braves had any mind, they'd make him regret that, but as we just saw, they needed three games to take out a Phillies team that couldn't hit, and wasted their best starters so that A.J. Smith Shawver could get shelled in long relief. Today it might be a similar strategy honestly, while the Dodgers have Blake Snell out there. 

Look, if the Braves weren't still hitting I'd be more worried. Albies had a late homer to rally a bit. The backup catcher had a homer. There is life in this team, and I think that if they somehow work a split to ensure Chris Sale can pitch, they could do some real damage. But this might be tough to do given how well planned out the Dodgers are right now. 

What a difference a couple of days makes, right?

The Yankees got all sorts of hits against the Red Sox, and their bullpen, and the Rays put out their best starter and mostly avoided the bullpen and we couldn't get shit done.  Drew Rasmussen looked incredible. 10 strikeouts, 8 innings, 1 hit, and said hit was immediately extinguished thanks to Austin Wells trying to leg out a triple with the heart of the order coming up. The Yanks pinch-hit Stanton in the 9th, they would have done it with Wells on second and brought in Volpe or somebody as a defensive sub. So much changes if Wells is content with a double, but alas...

My hope is that Rasmussen was the worst of this. He's gone deep with a no-no against the Yanks twice in the last two weeks. Famously we do a lot better against Nick Martinez, and Freddy Peralta, despite that September upswing, is not god anymore. Game 2 Monday night will have Cameron Schlittler on the gosh darned mound, and that'll make things very tough for a Rays team that only mustered one run, on a Jonathan Aranda solo shot, off of Cole and friends. 

I still have hope, but that was pretty damn bleak, gotta say.

Brewers-Padres might be the most competitive series of the four. The Brewers are the best of the best, but the Padres are hotter than hot right now. If this game was played in San Diego, that go-ahead homer by Ty France woulda counted, but because of that rinky-dink ass stadium in Milwaukee with a closed roof, that was merely an easy out. It sure makes the possibility of a Rays-Brewers World Series even more fun. Rob Manfred wants Yanks-Dodgers again, but how about two really low-market teams with old-ass stadiums fighting for dominance? Make him rip his hair out.

Anyway, this one was exactly what you wanted. Miz looking electric, striking out 6 but still allowing 2 runs. Chourio being the hero and tying the game with that huge homer. Phenomenal back-and-forth bullpen work. A thrilling conclusion where France almost sinks the game. So much really cool stuff. I'm definitely pulling for Milwaukee here, but the Padres could be a decent match for them.

Today we've got another Dodgers game, which Dave Roberts tells me they're planning to win 5-4 in order to set up a washed narrative before the sweep on Tuesday, and some more fun in Milwaukee. I'll try and sneak some in, in between watching football. 

Brain Sku

 

Remember a week or so after Tarik Skubal made it to LA and he was only doing okay and people were worried the Dodgers gave Zyhir Hope away for nothing? I mean, all will be revealed when Skubal signs with somebody after the season, but...you don't get Tarik Skubal on your team because of the okay starts. So when the good starts happen, nobody's gotta be shocked. He's Tarik Skubal. He does this.

Sku in LA has been as successful as you might expect. In 9 starts, he's 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 60 Ks. This is exactly what he was doing in Detroit but with a much thinner ERA. He had some trouble for about a week and a half, got over it, got better and put in another excellent season, one the Dodgers are now reaping the benefits of. Skubal has been a very nice addition to the Dodgers' rotation, which now has Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Emmet Sheehan all working pretty well. The key to this team, once again, will be legging out starters as relief pieces, as Justin Wrobleski, Roki Sasaki, and I can only assume Eric Lauer if he's back this year, will be used in long relief and will strengthen the postseason bullpen...which, to be clear, is already very strong because Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer and Brock Stewart are all having great seasons and it won't be as hellish to call for a 'pen boost midgame. 

For the second year in a row, the Dodgers are entering the postseason as something other than the clear favorite. The Brewers will be the top seed, and though the Dodgers will also get a first round bye, they will have to work their way up to a prevailing spot. The Braves, Phillies, Cubs and Padres all want the opportunity to take them down, and the Padres have done it before. The Dodgers are very good this year, but have lesser performances from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith, which is...their core. They also are just now getting production out of Kyle Tucker, but who knows how long that'll last. The pieces of this team are excellent, and could potentially get them a third straight ring, but...the strings are showing. It's a more human version of this team, with parts that can go wrong [Edwin Diaz, the catching for a month, Enrique Hernandez FOR NOW..] and guys who can, and have, not show up for big moments. Thanks to a really easy schedule, the Dodgers are 15-5 in September, and it's worth asking...would they still have been 15-5 last year given this schedule? They are better than bad teams, even depleted, heading into October...but are they gonna be better than good teams when it counts? No one's quite sure yet.

I think Ohtani's gonna be the big question mark. A lot has been made of Aaron Judge missing Yankee playoff games, but Judge is notoriously bad in October. Ohtani's got 11 postseason homers and 24 postseason RBIs, and that's just in two seasons. If he's got everything straightened out, he'll be that postseason hero again, which sounds like it'll be pretty easy to do, but...if he's not all the way there in October and struggles...that may say all it needs to. The Dodgers are going to fight like hell to ensure that nothing can stop them, but as we've seen in 2019, 2022 and 2023, even if they're extremely good, there could end up being someone better when they don't expect it. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays claimed him off waivers before the season and he's been a major contributor to their astonishing regular season run.

Easy Street

Here is a list of teams the Dodgers have left to play in 2026. The Reds, the Marlins, the Giants and the Padres. That's two noncompetitive teams, one mostly noncompetitive team, and a team on the bubble that the Dodgers have no problem beating when it means something. Now, for comparison's sake, the only tough teams the Padres have to face are the Dodgers and D-Backs, while the D-Backs have the Rangers, Yankees and Padres on the docket. Curiously all three NL West teams have games against the Marlins this month.

So look, do the Dodgers have THE easiest schedule of the competitors? No. But it's up there. The object is to get to the finish line without getting embarrassed by any of these teams, and getting a decent enough seed [the 1 is still in play, despite the Brewers working like hell to prevent this]. There is just one issue, and that is the Dodgers are in danger of losing Shohei Ohtani. They just announced he won't pitch again this season. Normally they'd do this as a dramatic gambit to set up a big final act, but no, he's done, he's focusing on hitting. And he should be, because that part seems to be falling off a bit. He's down to .277, with ONLY a .902 OPS, and ONLY 30 homers. The closest thing to a human year Ohtani's had since before the breakout in Anaheim, 2021-ish. He's missed a lot of games in the past week, and he's 2 for his last 18 at-bats with no extra base hits. Something's wrong, and the team can only stay so afloat without him.

Stranger still, the saga of Kyle Tucker's overblown market continues, as the outfielder might not even be an outfield starter in the playoffs. They might honestly need him, especially if Pages is gonna miss some games, but the way he's hitting is not at all what they signed him for. He's played in virtually every game but is hitting .221 with 12 homers, 59 RBIs and a .671 OPS. His WAR is at -0.1. Genuinely, Tucker has not been this pitiful since his 'struggling for playing time' days in the late 2010s in Houston. pretty much every season since he's gone from 4 to 6 WAR, and this season is a very odd outlier, a heartbreaking one. I don't know if it's him or it's LA or what's going on, but I do recall a sharp drop-off in the second half of last season, and it may have just continued. Still, that dead weight in addition to the lack of Ohtani help has been a huge hit to this team.

And yet...they keep winning. By the strength of their schedule, and the weakness of their opponents, they just keep winning. 

It's funny, last year around this time we were all going 'well Blake Snell's a waste of money if he's not gonna be healthy', and that's not really the case at all, because when he is healthy he's still excellent. So far in 6 starts this season, Snell's 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 43 Ks. Vintage Snell, for sure. Glasnow's been pretty decent too since coming back, he's 4-0 with a 3 ERA in 10 starts. Emmet Sheehan just had a really nice start this past week once it became do or die time with all the rotation vacancies. Skull's looking like himself, with a 3 ERA, 48 Ks and a 1.116 WHIP in 7 starts. And then Yamamoto you never really have to worry about, he's simply one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and he makes it look so easy. This is his third season and every one of them has been a gem. 

I still think the lineup schematic could be tricky if Ohtani isn't 100%, and some of the usual players [Hernandez, Muncy, Smith] are slowing down, but this Dodgers team is so well built that even this might only be a scratch. Obviously it's more interesting if someone else gets to win this time around, but will the Dodgers even let them? Is that even a possibility?

Coming Tomorrow- A Canadian legend already, and one of the best contact hitters in baseball at the moment. 

Whatever Motivates You...

 

I did not think it would take signing Edwin Diaz for Tanner Scott to become a great closer again.

Not that he was bad last year, but around midway through, things hit a snag. 23 saves is all well and good, but he kept blowing them, and ended the year with a 4.74 ERA and a -0.6 WAR. Yes, he still won a ring, but he saw no playoff time with the Dodgers because the team was too scared to actually use its bullpen, so they had like 4 other starters do all the relief work, gaming the system. Scott, at his peak with Miami, was one of the most effective relief pitchers in the game. To be perfectly honest, him not always succeeding as a closer isn't really a knock on him, as he's arguably just better as a setup man. Those 23 saves he got last season while tanking were a career high for him, so I think being a better closer involves not doing all the things that make him a great reliever. It's kind of screwed up. 

So moving Scott back to a setup role wasn't exactly a death sentence, and to be fair it worked alright for Blake Treinen. But then Edwin Diaz absolutely flounders in LA, leaving the ninth open and plenty of opportunities for Scott to save games. So he's been a ton better this year, with a 2.24 ERA, 19 saves and 64 Ks. He feels elite again, and he's stayed extremely consistent. Being surrounded by Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia and Brock Stewart also helps, as they've all been fantastic in relief roles. 

For the Dodgers, the return of Tyler Glasnow means the overpopulation of the rotation is once again a factor, because nowYamamoto, Skubal, Snell and Glasnow are non-negotiable, and it's down to either Roki Sasaki, who's not terrific but still good enough, and Eric Lauer, who asked to be traded from Toronto due to being made to do long relief appearances, for that last spot. AND at some point Shohei Ohtani is expected to start games again, so that'll make it even more crowded. I really do think going for a skeleton crew formation for now, emphasizing Yamamoto, Snell, Skubal and Glasnow, and priming the other two for relief roles in the playoffs, is the way. That way if Ohtani is ready to start again by the postseason, at worst that means you'd be using Glasnow in long relief as well, and that's...still pretty nice, despite how shaky Glasnow's seemed tonight.

The Dodgers have won six straight after a messy mid-August, but these six have been against the Rockies and Pirates. This week is the Braves, who are still quite good, and the Tigers who are really sneaky and are looking good against the Rays right now. From there they play a lot of teams that could be spoilers, from the Nats to the Marlins to the Reds. The Dodgers want that top seed, or at least enough security and momentum to make October as easy as the last two, and without Shohei Ohtani's usual batting dominance [he's ONLY hitting .288 with ONLY 30 homers and 80 RBIs, the madman], the team will need to try harder than usual. It's looking trickier now that Andy Pages is hurt and both catchers are still out for another week, but they're trying everything. Alek Thomas is now starting in center, giving the outfield a combined WAR of 0.0. Kyle Tucker might be an albatross around this team's neck if he doesn't start hitting, because at least Bobby Abreu would do some hitting when you signed him. Tucker has a .689 OPS. Miguel Rojas, who's about to retire and manage somebody probably, has a .720. Ye gods.

I'm not as mad as I am at the Astros that the team's still a frontrunner, because there's so much that's elite about this team, the runs have no problem getting scored and the depth is there, I just don't think they're the best team in baseball right now. The Dodgers might be playing more defense standings-wise than they're used to this year, and they'll need to really dial in if they want that threepeat, because right now there's one or two teams that might want the NL more.

Coming Tomorrow- A man that is all torso, all neck and all business. 

First to Cursed

 

There is a subject I don't like mentioning on the blog, but it's inevitable here. 

Y'see, a couple months ago, the New York Knicks were going on an absolute tear in the finals, they were outdoing the Spurs on every level. The Spurs only won one game of that series, and it was at the Garden, with...um...a guest. 

Recently. The Los Angeles Dodgers made a visit to this guest's current place of residence, or one of them at least. And since visiting said place of residence, they have won 5 games, and lost ten, including two against division rivals the Arizona Diamondbacks. More proof that no sports team is safe from being ruined at the hands of a massive...er, jinx. 

And at least the Knicks eventually won the Champs, but because it's only a 7 game series, all it takes is just getting the jinx out of the room. I think some Knicks fans did some cleansing rituals, a little sage, maybe something from a nearby halal cart, anything that could possibly work. And so, the Knicks won in 5, as depicted on the walls of the Sistine Chapel. But in a long season like this, it's gonna take more than just a game to pass for the stink to completely go away. So the Dodgers are still very much mired in this losing streak, and are gonna need to really rethink policy and outreach in order to come back from it.

There's at least good news, and it's that some pieces of this team that haven't had the proper time to really excel this season are finally getting there. Mookie Betts is one of them, as he was injured for most of the year, then took a while to really make an impact. He currently has 13 home runs and 36 RBIs in 80 games, plus the usual brand of excellent play at shortstop. Teoscar Hernandez also missed some time, but has been much better in the last few weeks, hitting .279 since the ASG break, with 3 homers and 5 RBIs. Tanner Scott is now a very viable ninth inning option again, with a 2.31 ERA and 16 saves, which is a very good thing because Edwin Diaz suddenly isn't. Roki Sasaki has been piling together more and more quality starts, and has his ERA down to 4.50. 

The frustrating part is the continued setbacks, the lighter bench work, the fact that both catchers are now injured and Hunter Feduccia is suddenly the top backstop on the team, and the knowledge that the Red Sox, Cubs and D-Backs all can find the leverage to top these guys. Yes, having Tarik Skubal helps, but the ESPN smear campaign is already in full effect to hide the fact that his first start was A.) during a loss and B.) nowhere near as effective as his Tigers starts. Blake Snell will be back soon, but for how long? Will Ohtani be pitching again anytime soon? Or are they gonna be stuck with Wrobleski and Lauer making crucial postseason starts?

The cracks have finally formed. And though the Dodgers are still a lock for the playoffs and a very good team, they are no longer unstoppable, and now may need to work harder to procure that all-important threepeat. I'd suggest maybe giving the guy who had them over a cease and desist.

Coming Tomorrow- He's not even playing his best baseball anymore, but he's still a crucial performer for a 1st place team, so that's definitely something. 

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2026

 Well...a lot happened this time around. 

Following the brass today was HARROWING. So much was happening, and so quickly. Almost evenly displaced as well, like there'd be a move, I'd have time to make a custom of them, and the next two moves would be up. And I think it was all a well rounded bunch. Last year the emphasis was on relief pitching, this year it was a little of everything. Some teams needed starting help, some teams needed outfield bats, some teams needed catchers [and some needed catchers and somehow forgot to deal for any]. A lot went down, even to the point where, after the BIG MOVE happened a few days ago, I was worried nothing would top it. And...I mean, we'll get to it, but there certainly was competition. 

I have a lot of other posts planned for deadline week, I have a 'best of the rest' one planned, I have a 'the ones I didn't understand' post in a bit. But we've got to do the top 10. This kept sliding by the whole day and got to the point where it is now. One spot stayed the same. And...yeah.

Anyway, we start with one I really didn't think was gonna happen this deadline:

#10: Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Giants

So, the Yankees went into the deadline looking for bullpen work and a catching upgrade, and got neither. So Heliot Ramos, a very savvy lineup addition, makes it to the end of this list without going forward. Let me just stress that I love this move, Ramos is young, controllable, and powerful. He's been hurt for a bit but he's hitting .264 with 9 homers and 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's a ferocious hitter with a huge upside and a lot to accomplish, and...he gets to hit in Yankee stadium. The tricky part is it crowds the outfield a bit. Right now it's Ramos/Jones/Dominguez/Grisham, and eventually Bellinger and Judge are gonna come back and it's gonna get even more crowded. It's bad enough that Paul Goldschmidt's gonna have even less at-bats now [more on that in another post], now we're crowding the active roster. It's gonna be worth it if Ramos continues his very strong work, which is very likely.

#9: Taylor Ward to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Orioles

The Mariners have the kind of team that should work more in concept, because you have Randy Arozarena, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone and Josh Naylor there and the contact game is ailing. So in comes Taylor Ward to make it even more ridiculous. Ward's having another excellent season, but it's a very contact heavy one without much need for power. He only has 7 homers and 30 RBIs, and that is appalling from a guy who's had 100 RBIs and 36 homers JUST A SEASON AGO. Wouldn't a trip to Seattle be a fun time to start power-hitting? Ward's an excellent outfield bat with some versatility and perks, and he could be the lineup piece that the Mariners need to save their season. I just think he really fits with what they're doing in Seattle. I'm also really happy the Mariners didn't deal Kirby or Emerson. Yes, that prevents against the possibility of stretch Kade, but their rotation is excellent and didn't need to be broken up beyond Castillo.

#8: Kevin Gausman to the Cubs, 2 prospects to the Blue Jays

The Jays had a really weird deadline, because they both sold and bought at the same time. And arguably they should have committed more to one than both. Ultimately, they chose to part with one of their longest-tenured stars, the mighty Kevin Gausman, where he will become something the Cubs have desperately needed this year: an actual ace. Justin Steele's been hurt, Cade Horton's out for a while, Shota Imanaga's struggled. They need stability, and Gausman is a veteran arm with postseason experience who can back up the already strong offense. This is a downslope of a year compared to his peak, as he is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA, but he's still a fundamentally strong pitcher with a lot of great starts left in him. I think he will greatly aid the Cubs down the stretch. Perhaps not as much as someone a little further down, but enough to land on this list.

#7: Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Giants

This is arguably a little low, but it's down here because the Phillies really needed a better option at fourth or fifth starter and didn't get one. They also needed an outfield bat...and didn't get one. So Luis Arraez, as good as he is, is an odd consolation for so many pieces of this lineup that needed help, and if we miss out on a World Series, it could be Dombrowski's fault for not going further. However...the Phillies now have Luis Arraez. And that's a very good thing. One of the best contact hitters in the game, and a terrific defensive 2nd baseman, joins this lineup, and moving Stott, Bohm and Harper around supremely improves the defense in general. Arraez is electric wherever he is, and the Phils could see that fully going forward. We also got Caleb Killian, who's a terrific bullpen arm with a great upside. Very much a win for Philly, even if the team isn't fully improved by this deadline.

#6: Foster Griffin to the Guardians, 4 prospects to the Nationals.

The Guardians had a sneakily good deadline, bringing on a lot of pieces that lift this team up to where they can really chase Chicago. Foster Griffin was their best move, because their fifth man in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, and as good as he can be, they could do better. Their rotation is now Messick, Williams, Bibee, Griffin and Cantillo, and that's among the best in the bigs. Griffin isn't an ace, but he's an excellent mid-rotation arm with 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA under his belt, and that's from playing for a very okay Nationals team. He'll thrive in a playoff environment in Cleveland, and build on this belated rookie season to become an even bigger force going forward. 

#5: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs, Francisco Rojas to the Mets

This one ways a little more than Gausman to me for the Cubs pitching additions, because Holmes, until the injury, was having the best season of his career, and one of the only good seasons on the Mets. Through 9 games he had a 2.39 ERA, and was proving that the Mets moving him to the rotation was a good idea after all. The idea is that once Holmes is active [as well as Braxton Garrett], he'll be able to aid the Cubs rotation, and I see him as a front-facing integral arm that could lead them through some postseason games. Tyrone Taylor's also an excellent outfield depth option for this team, and could be very helpful on a postseason roster. The Cubs weren't fully ready before, and now they are.

#4: Freddy Peralta to the Rays, 3 prospects to the Mets

This deal will work out if the thesis, that the Mets were just a really poor fit for Peralta, is true. Peralta succeeded in Milwaukee, a small market team built on contact and pitching. That's also the Rays. Low budget, small core, close wins, and an impressive rotation. Peralta levels it up, as good as Rasmussen and Martinez have been. Shane McClanahan's gonna miss some time, and Peralta will be relied upon to deliver Brewers numbers as an ace for a Rays team with a shot at a #1 seed. Peralta's 4.99 ERA will need to come down if the Rays want to take advantage of this deadline, and I have a feeling it will. Meanwhile, Jett Williams is still chilling in the Brewers' farm system, and Brandon Sproat is getting all kinds of starts, so...lolMets.

#3: Liam Hicks to the Rays, Brayden Taylor and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

I like this one a little better for the Rays, simply because it fixes a lot of problems. It ups their catching game, ensuring Nick Fortes doesn't have to start behind the plate as much. It also gives them a proven contact bat with some kick against righthanded pitchers, and a very well-trusted lineup presence. I think he's just one of those guys who can pop into any lineup and just dive right in with excellent production, so I think he'll love Tampa. And also, he drains the Rays' farm system a little more so other teams can have a chance. Just a really cool, sneaky move by the Rays that positions them further towards a late run.

#2: Adley Rutschman and Jake Rogers to the Red Sox, Carlos Narvaez and 4 prospects to the Orioles.

I would say since Varitek left, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at catcher. So many guys that could have been the one, or should have. Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez, and the list goes on and on. So to finally have an answer at catcher, and for it to be Adley Rutschman a terrific hitting catcher whose team already foreshadowed this move by signing Samuel Basallo to a multi-year deal...that is huge. Rutschman's having another great season, but it did feel like this O's team was moving past the need for him. With this Boston team he'll fit right in, and be another huge lineup piece of a team that's quickly becoming a serious wild card threat. Very much a case of giving a team exactly the guy they need going forward.

But of course...nothing was gonna top the #1 piece on the board. Even if you disagree with its existence, this deal needed to be #1.

#1: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, River Ryan, Zyhir Hope and 1 other prospect to the Tigers

So. The best team in baseball got the best pitcher in baseball. In 16 starts, Skubal had a 2.79 ERA, 7 wins, 116 Ks and a 2.9 WAR. He's still in his peak, is effortlessly brilliant, and was never gonna stay in Detroit. The Dodgers taking him happened because they had a well-stocked farm system where even their lower tier prospects were more than other teams were offering. It's disappointing that, like a lot of recent Dodger developments, nobody else could stop it from happening. But now Sku gets to help the Dodgers go for a threepeat, and it's gonna make electric October baseball even if they don't get all the way. It's also gonna add fuel to the fire that Skubal will, in all likelihood, choose to stay in LA going forward. Definitely shifts the balance of the game, which is what the trade deadline is for. 

So yeah. A lot happened. A lot of teams won. And now the Dodgers are even scarier. Sets up the last third perfectly.

Sometime tomorrow there'll be a 'best of the rest' post most likely, with a lot of other deals that didn't make this list. 

Wake Up, Edman

 

So, Yankees-Dodgers was this weekend, which means it was high time for the Yankee fans to complain that they can't win anything and are still spiraling despite the fact that they had to play a very good team, with a very good lineup, and are missing Aaron Judge. Calm down, we're gonna flash forward two months and the worrying will have been for nothing.

The Dodgers continue to be annoyingly perfect. Obviously still flawed, but not flawed enough for anything to go wrong. Like, okay, Will Smith's out for another month and the everyday catcher is Dalton Rushing, a power hitter with a foul mood whose inability to get on the same page as Shohei Ohtani on the mound might lead to Ohtani just not pitching til Smith comes back. On any other team that could be a 'trouble in paradise' headline, a 'maybe they're not as good as we thought' moment. Nope, they're still winning games. Kyle Tucker, the big offseason acquisition, is hitting .244 with only 7 home runs. No big deal, he's still in the lineup virtually everyday and Alex Call can go in for him. Edwin Diaz, the other big offseason acquisition, is hurt for probably the rest of the year, leaving them without a working closer. Well, of course this is the part where Tanner Scott actually figures his shit out, brings his ERA back to 2.50 and notches 14 saves. The whole bullpen is ridiculous actually. It's 5 guys that just get up there, only allow a run or so and make their next appearance. And then maybe occasionally Eric Lauer is needed for long work. Even something that was supposed to work differently snaps into something that's efficient anyway.

Tommy Edman was hurt for a bit, as he tends to be, and now he's back and immediately one of the best hitters on the team again. In 23 games he's hitting .343, with 2 home runs and 12 RBIs, including that needed home run last night in the Bronx [that, of course, was their only run in that game]. This wasn't even a needed burst of offensive help, they have Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages, but Edman is that extra piece guy that makes a team like this better. Usually it's Kiké Hernandez, he's been hurt. To this point it was Alex Call, he pales in comparison. Edman's versatile defensively, he's contact-friendly and he can just go on a tear when you need him to. I have no idea how the Cardinals convinced themselves they'd be better off without him and with Erick Fedde. J.J. Wetherholt is nice and all but you need an x-factor guy like Edman to come in and do everything. It's why guys like David Freese and Jedd Gyorko were so important to these teams last decade.

The Dodgers are the frontrunner yet again, and the most efficient and successful team in the bigs, again. Their challenge will be to carry this all the way into October again and pull off the all-too-rare threepeat. Remember, the Chiefs couldn't do it. They went into New Orleans thinking the threepeat was on the horizon and then the Eagles kicked their asses. And they were never the same. The Dodgers, if they're not careful, could end up like that. It's not the most likely outcome, it's also likely they could once again waltz to the end without anyone stopping them and set up a lockout. But we'll have to see what develops. Because we don't know how long Ohtani will be missing starts for, and we don't know how long it'll take Tucker and Betts to heat up, and we don't know if somebody else can get hotter, like in 2019 and 2022. For now, I'll just expect the Dodgers' story to remain the same and brace myself for the idea of a hard right turn.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles tried to make this guy their relief ace. It didn't work. So of course the Rays have more success. 

Fred Over Heels

 

Realistically, there probably aren't going to be a lot of new members of the 3000 hit club in the next decade or so. The time of people shooting for 200 hits instead of 50 homers and 200 strikeouts is over, and it's made it difficult for career hits totals to keep stacking up over time. Pujols, Ichiro and Cabrera got past the mark because the 2000s still valued contact hitting. Freddie Freeman has over 2500 hits, and is theoretically young enough, and in enough of a peak period, to cross that threshold. But he's also 36, and he only has one more year on his contract. Plus, even if he doesn't get to 3000 hits, Freeman's still a Hall of Famer. It's obvious now, and the 2024 World Series cemented that case. The 3000th hit would just be frosting rather than the key to entry.

This mostly says a lot about just how great Freddie Freeman's been for his whole career. There's only one season in sixteen full ones that ended with a WAR total lower than 2, and that was Freeman's 2011 rookie campaign, where he hit 21 homers with 76 RBIs and a .282 average. Literally every other season has been a 2 or higher WAR, with five seasons reaching 5 WAR or higher. Every season since 2013, Freeman's sported an .800 OPS or higher, and his lowest batting average in this period was a .276 average in 2015. Freeman is classic in the sense that in an era where nobody really has a reason to hit .300, he consistently does so and in a way that really helps whatever team he's on. The Dodgers picking him up in 2022 really was perfectly timed, and since then Freeman's continued to give his absolute all, with four straight All-Star Game nominations [followed swiftly by a fifth very shortly]. Where many people figured Freeman would start trailing off, he's stayed consistent, and is still a very crucial piece of the Dodgers' offensive output.

Right now, Freeman has a .293 average, 13 homers, 46 RBIs and a 2.6 WAR. Which is very good. And yet because this team has Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages and Max Muncy on it, it may look comparatively pedestrian. Pages is having an incredible year, with a league-leading 60 RBIs. Ohtani's got 18 homers and 50 RBIs, and he's going 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in addition. Muncy's got 17 homers and 37 RBIs, and might be starting an ASG along with Freeman. That's your core, that's your central guys...and that doesn't even include Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, who are both having down years, Will Smith, who's hurt, or Teoscar Hernandez, who was just activated from the IL. The team is that good, and Freeman is both crucial and taken for granted at the same time.

Not a ton of flaws from this Dodgers team recently. Maybe Sheehan and Sasaki could be doing a little better, but when the top 3 are Ohtani, Yamamoto and Wrobleski, and Eric Lauer's hanging out as a very sharp 6th guy, it's not the biggest issue. 

The Dodgers have to play the Padres this weekend. If you've been around the last few years, you know what this means. The Padres are 12 games behind LA this time, so it's not like a 'if they sweep, they take the division' situation like the last few Padres-Dodgers series'. Basically, every time the Padres are getting good, they have to play the Dodgers and can't capitalize. But here the Padres have nothing to capitalize on so maybe they'll actually win.

Coming Tonight: Shane McClanahan, I'm sorry, but you might not be the ace in Tampa anymore. That is, unless the Rays decide to trade this guy very soon.

There's No Need to Panic..

 

Now, I know the Guardians are going through injury troubles of their own right now, but how'd you like this to be you: one of your best starters leaves with a hamstring injury after keeping the opposing team down, then your best hitter, who's also your best pitcher, leaves after his knee, the same knee he spent a while rehabbing, flares up. And then the following game you get fleeced by the White Sox.

The Dodgers have come back from worse and won it all. Famously. And they still have enough on this team working that it may not be a great deal. Plus, Shohei Ohtani did come back last night and hit a home run, so his injury might not even be that bad. Same with Justin Wrobleski, who isn't going on the IL. But...already you are seeing the Dodgers trying to hold on, for dear life, to their luck. Because they know how quickly things can unravel if the centerpiece, Ohtani, is thrown off balance.

This is already looking like another MVP-caliber season for Ohtani, with a 1.06 ERA with a 6-2 record as a pitcher, and a 14 homer/41 RBI campaign, with a league-leading .946 OPS as a batter. I would honestly say he's done better as a hitter, and it took a little while for him to get going at the plate, but June has been a lot better for him, and he's looking like his old self. Wrobleski has also been a nice surprise, with a 2.95 ERA and a 7-2 record. He's a leverage pitcher mostly, but he's been really dominant, and has kept so many tough lineups down this year. The threat, even if minimized, of losing both of these guys should really be a reality check for this team.

Because so far this year they've lost Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, as they are prone to, they got Mookie Betts back after an injury and he's not really back yet, they lost Will Smith and have to deal with Dalton Rushing's defense daily, they lost Teoscar Hernandez and are now plugging career minor leaguer Ryan Ward out in left to platoon with Alex Call, and the guy they paid cornerstone money for at the top of the season is producing his most okay campaign to date. If this wasn't The Dodgers, all this not going to plan would sink them.

But, of course, they've got the division tightly, their nearest competition is either the Padres, who can't hit, or the D-Backs, who just got swept by the Marlins, and they still have Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto performing like absolute world-beaters. So even if this is an actual injury concern, it might not be much more than a small dent in this team's overall outlook. They're 7-5 in June, which, if you ignore how much better they were in May, is a good run. They can still take a loss to a team like the Angels or the White Sox, and with the Rays and Orioles coming up they may take a few more sizable ones. But the Dodgers are built to withstand these inconveniences, and at this rate they'll likely be alright.

Coming Tonight: Remember when we all thought it was a bad idea for the Yankees to bring this guy back? What a world that was, right?

Overdrive

 

Shohei Ohtani, for the first time since...I wanna say 2020 or so, is putting up positively human numbers at the plate. Human for Ohtani is still nebulous for most other ballplayers, but there is a palpable downward step from 2025, he's hitting .269 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs. Very normal, very unassuming, not a heck of a lot setting up apart from his contemporaries at the plate. Still a needed hitter with great power instincts, but it's not the pace that got him over 50 long balls the last few years.

Which means it's a good thing he's having his best season to date as a pitcher. 

The last time Ohtani felt this untouchable on the mound, it was 2022, and he went 15-9 with a 2.23 ERA and 219 Ks, enough to get him second in the MVP voting [but because he didn't hit 62 homers he couldn't lap the favorite]. Now he seems even better. In 9 starts he has a 5-2 record with a 0.82 ERA and 61 Ks. Pure dominance on so many levels, without overexerting himself. In fact, last night Ohtani went 6 innings without allowing a hit, only allowing a run on some sacrifice plays. That someone that dangerous as a hitter can also pitch scoreless frames and master the other side of the game, arguably more than the hitting right now, is insanely impressive.

On the heels of that is the fact that the Dodgers' bullpen has been exceptional this month, with little to no run bleeding from stalwarts like Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Kyle Hurt and Edgardo Henriquez. Despite the amount they paid for another lost Edwin Diaz season, they've built a working model that completely outdoes their 2025 model of hoping the extra starters can do long relief. It eviscerates one of the real marks against them from last year, and it gives them yet another leg up on the competition.

Shohei Ohtani is also just the best starter in this rotation right now, and that's taking into consideration Justin Wrobleski's swell, Yamamoto's usual brilliance and the surprise smash that is Eric Lauer. I am beginning to get worried that the potential for yet another Philadelphia Cy Young win will be foiled by a candidate who regularly wins things. I'm miffed about Zack Wheeler losing all those times, and I still think Cristopher Sanchez deserved another look last year. Now Sanchie's on an unprecedented run and I'm not even sure if that'll be enough to stop the writers from giving awards to Ohtani. Not that he doesn't deserve it, it's just...hasn't he gotten enough stuff by now?

The Dodgers still look like a league giant, have Andy Pages and Freddie Freeman surging, and have no trouble keeping the Padres down, in many cases getting other teams to do the dirty work for them. Even with the usual pitching injuries, and a few crucial lineup injuries [Betts and Teoscar], this team isn't slowing down, and still has lots of strength on display. It's a wee bit boring, but even I can appreciate it.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Dodgers lineup standout, now in a crucial role in opposition to LA's dynasty.

All in the Spectacle

 

Remember a couple years ago when Anthony Rizzo was in a terrible slump for months on end and it was only after it had gone on for a bit that the Yankees' trainers realized he had concussed at the beginning of the season and none of them had noticed? The Dodgers thought 'well, what if we had a GOOD version of that?'

Hence, Max Muncy, whose numbers fell off for a couple years, then went and got his eyes checked, got new specs, and once again is a tremendous contact hitter. Muncy's hitting .279 with 9 homers and 13 RBIs, hitting more accurately than he has in years. At 35 he's become one of the elder statesmen of the team, whose reliable output is still a crucial part of the team's success. I have to tell you, when Muncy came up in 2018 I did not predict that he'd mature into a Justin Turner-type figure. But that's pretty much what's happened, except Muncy is a better power hitter, hitting 35+ homers four times in his career.

I think the expectation was for Muncy to play more of a minor role in this team's success, but with Betts out, Ohtani hitting .278, Tucker with 4 homers and 20 RBI, and Freeman teetering over his peak, it's a welcome development. I think now you're beginning to see the next stage of the Dodgers experiment, because if Betts and Freeman are getting old, there's gonna need to be new working pieces. Tucker's definitely one of them, even if he's been okay at best so far. Alex Freeland's been surprisingly nice as a 2B replacement, he's hitting .253 and playing great defense. Andy Pages is the man, the myth and the legend even if I can't see him carrying the team much on his own. Dalton Rushing, uhh....I dunno, man. He hits a ton of home runs but he's got this attitude issue that I'm not sure about. We'll have to see.

I think this team has happened upon a working rotation schematic for the most part. Ohtani's pitching Cy Young caliber numbers every sixth day, Justin Wrobleski's become the best compromise money isn't buying, Yamamoto's still elite, Emmet Sheehan's doing alright, Sasaki still hasn't figured the majors out and Snell's gonna swap in for Glasnow perfectly. As it stands it's a durable model, and there's still River Ryan and a host of to-be-activated guys if things turn out similar to last June. Also, suddenly Tanner Scott can close games again. I dunno what happened back there but he seems to have figured it out again. Good for him.

The Dodgers are still ahead of the Padres for the division by 2 games, meaning for the first time this season, they have staved off being lapped. Let's see if this goes any differently from last year.

Coming Tomorrow- The Yankees don't get Carlos Rodon back for another few days, and they don't get Gerrit Cole back for another couple months, yet they still have a guy leading the league in wins, ERA and WHIP. Magic. 

Empty Pages

 

Hey...guess who has the best record in baseball? No, really, guess. You'll never get it.

Despite being upset by the Rockies twice this weekend [more proof that the Rox are quietly improving], the Dodgers are still 15-6, and surging in all the places people thought they would. Shohei Ohtani's on-base streak is still active? Of course it is. Freddie Freeman's still an elite 1B option even after 35? Of course he is. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's still one of the best starters in the game? You know it. 

Though shockingly, the team's current WAR leader is not Shohei Ohtani, nor Freeman or Yamamoto, but one Andy Pages. Pages had a strong first few months to the 2025 season before balancing out a bit, but his April's been outrageous, with a 1.083 OPS, a .389 average, 28 hits and 21 RBIs, all league highs. Pages also has 5 homers, tied for second place with Ohtani and...Dalton Rushing?? Is that right? The Dodgers' backup catcher can rake like hell? Damn, that's pretty helpful in case something happens to Will Smith. But yeah, Pages has led the charge, and unlike some contemporaries [James Outman mostly], he's proven to have MLB staying power and has become more multifaceted than before. Gotta love that this team can still find new heroes even in a lineup with 3 MVPs in it. 

You're also seeing some of the guys who had slower starts begin to find themselves. Kyle Tucker's slowly heating up, he has 3 homers and 13 RBIs now. It's not as immediate as his Chicago success was but he's still pretty damn good. Ohtani only has 10 RBIs but he's also like their best starter so I think the Dodgers can let it slide. Glasgow's 2-0 with a team-leading 29 Ks and a 3.24 ERA, so he's getting his stuff under control. Jack Dreyer and Tanner Scott have gotten their ERAs back down, and Edwin Diaz is trying to. Even Justin Wrobleski can hang on for a truly dominant start in a rotation that happened to have an open space, and now he's sticking around. I do think once Snell and Knack come back he'll be back to long relief, but this will at least make him look desirable to the other 29 teams.

Even without Mookie Betts and Blake Snell, this is still a good Dodgers team because it's gained depth naturally vs. out of injury necessity. Justin Wrobleski feels like a genuine starting option and not a failsafe. There are no stunts to avoid bullpen depth. The bench guys are valuable MLB options. The system doesn't feel like it's being gamed...yet. Though...if nobody can stop this team then we really do deserve a lockout. Cause they're good, but they're not immaculate. No team is immaculate. So hopefully a successor can take them out. And seeing as the Padres are only a half game behind them now after doing some serious streaking, maybe it'll come sooner than we think.

Coming Tomorrow- Aaron Judge has 9 home runs, but this guy has 8. And he's no slouch either.