Wild Card Series' Day 3: All That For Nothing

 

This is what the Phillies do that makes it so frustrating. They take an unwinnable situation, a foregone conclusion, 'okay, the Braves are the way better team, they will win', and they give you the illusion of hope. Making this a three game series was exactly that. It could have been cut and dry for the Braves but we legged it out to Game 3, made them trot out Chris Sale and Grant Holmes, and made them really work for a win they already kinda had. All the while they just make you think it was possible. You know, somebody could come alive, somebody could get to the other pitching staff. And then the exact thing you were preparing for from the jump happens anyway and you get worked up over nothing. 

Unsurprisingly, the Braves were the better team. Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Matt Olson all hit crucial home runs in spots they were supposed to. The bullpen could leg out the game, Ray Kerr could have a terrific opening performance, and Chris Sale was around to finish it off. Even Grant Holmes was decent in a mid-game run. Everyone who was in position to succeed did so, and cemented a win that, to be honest, should have been cemented last game. But still, the Braves get to go to LA and potentially upset the defending champs, and make for a pretty evenly-matched NLDS matchup. I'm fine with it.

The Phils, for a team that could not hit, did so much to combat the obvious issue. They got a batting addition and two bullpen additions, none of whom made the playoff roster. They got Derek Hill and Bryan de la Cruz for nothing, and they became surprisingly nice presences on the team. Everyone who was sucking in May got a September boost, like Aaron Nola, Bryson Stott, Andrew Painter and Alec Bohm. And Schwarber and Harper kept hitting homers. Unfortunately, the Trea Turner contract is becoming a horse around our necks, the bullpen still couldn't get through a damn thing, and the Braves were simply the better team. It was nice we legged it out, and Derek Hill hitting a triple this game makes me think he can be useful going forward, but...this was not the Phils' finest hour, and very well might be the death nell of the Harper era. But who knows, maybe Alex Cora can bring us back next year.

Friday I can actually catch my breath, but Saturday we've got ALDSs. I've got one team I love still in the race, plus three teams who've never won a World Series plus the Guardians who haven't won since the Truman administration, and the White Sox who I'd love to see do well. Obviously there's one spot in the championship series' reserved for a perennial figure, thanks to the Dodgers-Braves series, but there's still room for spontaneity in all the other ones. Kinda pulling for a Brewers-Yanks series but am fine with virtually everything but Dodgers-Rays. 

Wild Card Series' Day 2: How's THAT ONE the Even One??

 

I just don't understand this at all. Going into this wild card week, I was figuring that one of these would be really cut and dry, over before it started, and the rest would be back and forth. As it turns out, that was not the case at all. Two series I figured would cause me pain didn't even remotely. And the one that I figured would be a foregone conclusion...is going to game three. 

I'm...vexed. I knew the Braves had weaknesses worthy of being exploited. I just did not think the Phillies were good enough to exploit them at the moment. Very clearly the Braves are good at pointing out ours, like the defensive schematic being pointless if Arraez isn't in at second, the bullpen instability, the lack of general run support and the tendency to lay down meatballs at inopportune moments. We did a lot of that. Harper and Bohm made errors that, if they didn't tie and win the game respectfully, would have been further scrutinized.

All in all, Sanchie put on a clinic, the offense showed up and Bohm came to life yet again, Harper and Schwarber did some heavy lifting, and this team held the Braves down long enough to force a game 3. I do not know how well this is going to go, because the Phillies still have those issues that are concerning everyone, but...we forced a Game 3 against a team that's better than us. The Braves, even if they win this series, may not recover from nearly slipping against a Phils team that can't hit. The Dodgers could have fun with that, arguably more fun than they would if we somehow win this game. 

The Phils really know how to drive me up the wall some days. Maybe this works out. Kinda horrified about the prospect of LA but hey...maybe NOW we gain the momentum we should have all year. If not, Braves-Dodgers is what I was already prepping for anyway.

Anyway, the shellackings. So...the White Sox won a playoff series for the first time in years, the Astros lost in the first round and were exploited for being a weak division winner, and the fun wild card team gets to take on Cleveland and possibly reclaim the narrative of the whole season. I like this a lot better than 'well, it's the Astros......again..' Like, what the hell else can you even say about them at this point? They've sucked so hard they might go to another ALCS? 

The White Sox's contact battery was exactly as successful this playoff series as I'd hoped it'd be. Kyle Teel, Andrew Benintendi and Tristan Peters piled on the contact stuff to end Hunter Brown's day WAY earlier than I thought it would, then Chase Meidroth pulled it over the edge with a 3-run bomb off Peter Lambert, who the Astros already decided wasn't starting Game 3 and certainly wouldn't now. They now head to Cleveland with Davis Martin fully rested, Sean Burke riding pretty high, Kay and Fedde both viable options, and the offense fired up. Murakami came to the White Sox to lay low and made it to the playoffs immediately, and I love it for him.

I will give the Astros credit. Despite giving up, they never completely gave up.

[reads over a second time] Yeah.

They fought til the end. Jose Altuve, Cam Smith and Jeremy Pena all homered. The bullpen locked in more than the starters could. I think it's so fitting that the big error of the game was committed by Lucas Spence, because if it weren't for his four home runs in the A's series, the Astros probably wouldn't even have been a playoff team to begin with. They are here because of Lucas Spence, and they're booted from the playoffs after two games...also because of Lucas Spence. Full circle. Spence probably has a nice career ahead of him, or the Astros hope he does, as Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo and Brice Mathews haven't really firmed things up at all. 

I figured the Yankees had the edge over Boston. I did not think it would go like this.

Basically...the Sox' bullpen ruined two good starts by their main guns, the main bats didn't show up, and the Yankees, at home, took advantage of every last misstep. Tonight, Cody Bellinger was the kingkiller, with the 3-run bomb off of Garrett Whitlock, after Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, George Lombard and Luis Garcia Jr. had already made a mess of things. People are worried about the lack of Aaron Judge, but considering that Bellinger, Jones, Lombard, Volpe, Chisholm, Grisham, Wells, Garcia and especially Ben Rice have come through in huge moments for this team, they can worry less. The whole time, the Yankees have been trying to be more than just 'Aaron Judge's team', and right now that's what we are. The whole team won this series and kept it short. 

Rays-Yankees is gonna be TOUGH. I think we can find a way through but the Rays have a whole mess of weapons, and they will not make it easy. If either team makes the ALCS, they'll deserve it. I hope the Yanks can rise to the occasion, but the Rays have been too much for them at many points. I just hope this time will be different. 

There was a moment where it genuinely looked like the Sox were tanking for seed choice. They were losing the last few games of the year, and I thought it was because they wanted to face Houston and not the Yanks. Which would have been a smart move because they'd have won against Houston. In all actuality it was because they completely ran out of steam and had nothing left by the time they got to the Bronx. 

The Sox still got a decent start out of Sonny Gray, a helpful homer from Willson Contreras, and a winning throw from Nate Eaton to nab Ben Rice at home. That's it. Garrett Crochet was not ready and soiled the game. Whitlock, as good as he's been this year, didn't help either. Rutschman, Abreu, Rafaela and Durbin were listless. It was a relatively cut and dry series, which is great for me personally but you never want that for Yanks-Sox. It's gotta be back and forth, that's more fun. I appreciate the ease of it all but...it's just clear they were exhausted just from their second half comeback. That's a win in itself, and hopefully the Chad Tracy era yields more seasons like these, but...yeah, not the immediate gratification many fans were hoping for.

The wild card teams that make the playoffs always are correspondent to their momentum. If they're gaining as the season ends they've got a shot, if they're losing they may be in trouble. The Cubs had some momentum going into September and lost it...around the same time the Padres gained theirs. So this one was honestly pretty simple.

A lot is gonna be said going into next year about Xander Bogaerts. He hasn't put up Sox numbers as a Padre but he's been plenty good, and his big RBIs this series are proof that he can be helpful in the postseason. Maybe there's merit to that contract after all. Same with Machado, who looked like a lost cause in the first half and wound up with a 30 homer/90 RBI season anyway, just with a bit less heft than usual. These guys can be helpful even off their peaks. Of course, Gavin Sheets was the real hero, breaking the game open with a massive bomb and making the eventual win a foregone conclusion.

The Padres looked amazing this series. Unfortunately, now they have to play the best team in baseball. The hope will be that the momentum holds and they can best Milwaukee in an upset, but this will be tough with the lack of real starting depth the Padres have. 

So here's the thing. Tropicana Field might be cursed now. Which is intriguing.

The last game of the season, the Sox were GOING TO host the Cubs at Fenway, and then a huge storm came and MLB said 'no, this game has to be played, we have Tropicana Field open, get down there'. Let's forget that the Yanks and O's also have a game in the line of fire, and that's not gonna get played at all, but Cubs-Sox needs to be played, even if they're both in, and even if the seeds are pretty solid. So the Cubs and Red Sox go down to Tampa, play in this meaningless game, Roman Anthony gets hurt, Alex Bregman attempts to play hurt. And then they both go for their playoff games and they both lose immediately. Rob Manfred, as he's going to a lot in the next six months, will insist there was no connection. But it's awfully suspicious that you hurl two teams out of their comfort zones and they both lose right after. And one guy gets hurt. 

The Cubs did not have any life this series. I also think they were at the mercy of their starting pitching options, and Boyd and Gausman were not as strong postseason options as they were last year. The bullpen didn't help either. And both PCA and Bregman failed to really make much of an impact. There is definitely a future for this team, and Pedro Ramirez had a very nice rookie come-up as a depth infielder and contact bat, but next year they'll need to contend with the Cardinals, who will inevitably strike back, and the Pirates, who'll hopefully have a healthier Paul Skenes, and unless the pitching suddenly reverts to classic energy [getting Steele and Horton back at full strength would certainly help], it'll be much tougher. 

Alright, all down to Atlanta tonight. Would love a Phils win somehow but I also have tempered my expectations and know, realistically, who the better team is. Intrigued nonetheless.

Arraez to the Occasion

 

Right now, the Phillies are entangled in yet another weekend series with the Braves, trying to creep up on their division lead and take control in the final weeks of the season. The Phillies are likely playoff-bound, but want the higher seed [probably 3 it's looking like] in order to play from the upper hand for at least some of the postseason. Now...I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but the Phils are much more successful in this regime as a wild card team than as a team that takes a first round bye. Last year, they tried to circumvent this by holding an open practice to stay hot in between the bye. It did not work. The Dodgers crushed them anyway. Meanwhile, each time they got in as a wild card team, they made it to an NLCS, and at one point even won.

So part of me's going 'well...why do you WANT the higher seed? You're better working from behind anyway.' Last year, their 'working from ahead' NLDS was against the Dodgers, who's whole thing is they're never behind anybody. You're better as a spoiler than an alpha, be the spoiler. Let the Braves take the division and get clobbered by the six seed. That means Phils-Cubs is looking more and more like a certainty, but the Phils have the better pitching by a mile.

The issue is getting everybody to hit, though, as it has been all season. Aside from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Phils offense has been very variable, without many sure-things. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are both having down seasons despite some decent enough production. Brandon Marsh WAS having a nice season, then seriously fell off after the ASG break and is now hitting .266. Justin Crawford is still not the guy that was advertised, and is still acclimating to the bigs, coming into some contact prowess. Realmuto's hitting, but nowhere near as consistently as he used to. Edmundo Sosa and Derek Hill are nice diversions but they're not the stars.

It's been nice to see Luis Arraez hitting .300 once again though, and he might go for another NL batting title. His numbers aren't as incredible as they were in San Francisco though, as statistically he's an average hitter and fielder again. What he remains is a difficult out, and he's got 41 hits and 16 RBIs in 35 games, pretty understandable for Arraez. He's also the exact kind of fun character for this club, as Harrison Bader was last year; there was a pitch during the Astros series that got so close to him that the 'AY YI YIIIII!' could be heard from the Linc. I think the Phils are still stronger with him, and I trust everyone else at their new positions more than I did at their old ones [Bohm at 1st, Stott at 3rd, it all works out].

Some of the other worrying aspects of this team are coming alive as well. Aaron Nola's had some beautiful starts lately, and now has his ERA closer to 4.50, which is about where he should be considering. The bullpen's improved, and Tim Mayza, Alex McFarlane and Jonathan Bowlan are doing what they're supposed to. Edmundo's had more and more clutch moments in recent months, and has remained a really valuable part of this team. And yeah, with how integral Bryce Harper has been to this team, I don't see how anyone would think of him as truly past his peak.

I think the Phillies have a good team this year, and could do some damage next month. I also see them falling victim to the same pitfalls that usually do them in, but...if they're in as a wild card team and can keep the momentum going, they have more of a shot than if they have the bye.

Coming Tomorrow- Big hitter for a team that's, despite being kinda good, closing up shop pretty much.

Shuffling the Bank

 

So since the trade deadline, the usually-strong Phillies fielding strategy has been flipped a bit. Because Luis Arraez is now the everyday second baseman, Bryson Stott has moved to third, Alec Bohm has moved to first, Bryce Harper has moved to right, and Trea Turner...is still playing short despite some really rough play at short. But this seems to have solved enough problems otherwise. The idea of Stott losing playing time to a shift also lit a spark in him, as suddenly he's become one of the best hitters in town, with a .263 average, 59 RBIs and 23 steals. I think earlier in the season Stott was an average piece at best, but suddenly he's got a nice season going on. I'm not exactly sure where Brandon Marsh's bat has gone off to, but we'll take Stott's.

The thing about the Phillies right now is that there's a lot of gambits, but they all seem to be working. Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter both had excellent starts their last time through the rotation. Bryan de la Cruz has been an unexpected gem of a pickup, hitting .350 with 11 RBIs in 20 games. Derek Hill might still be one of the best clutch guys in the league, with 17 RBIs in 46 games. Alec Bohm still has 14 homers and 76 RBIs, and has made up for defensive inefficiency with some cool power displays. And now suddenly J.T. Realmuto is hitting, he's got 9 homers and 44 RBIs in 99 games, the old JT seems to have returned. All this and Kyle Schwarber hitting 40 home runs has kept the Phils alive in the wild card race. 

I think the thing that's getting me grumbling right now is the realization that the MLB keeps actively avoiding handing a Cy Young award to a Phillies pitcher. Zack Wheeler's been up for it like three times, can't get one. Cristopher Sanchez was up for it last year, nah, Skenes's year. Sanchez again has been the frontrunner all year, 'ah actually Jacob Misiorowski's stuff is more interesting'. I mean...yeah, but Sanchez has a 7 ERA, 16 wins, he'll get 200 Ks soon enough. Is that not enough for people anymore? If Sanchez misses half the season next year [heh], you'll all be going 'oh if only we gave him one while we had the chance. Wheeler, despite missing 5 starts, is also having a good season, but since he got lit up by the Mariners his ERA's 3.40. How depressing if you're a sportswriter. Looking at a guy going 'oh, a 3.40 ERA in August, better fire up the crematorium'. I'm fairly convinced, and I mean this jokingly, that most sportswriters don't like it when Philly has nice things. Then again, most Philly FANS don't like this either. I have a friend from middle school who I only hear Facebook posts from when the Phils are losing. When they're winning? Not a peep. What's the point of that? Probably more boring. 

I do think the Phillies are on the right track at this rate, after a strong August. They've got a good hand on a wild card spot, and they're 5 games out from the division, which is slightly doable considering that, and it's wild that I'm saying this...the Phillies might have more pitching depth than the Braves. I know, it's insane to say out loud. I like this team's chances, and I think getting a low seed is a nice way of gaining momentum, as they did before. It's just gonna take more stretches like this one and less series' like the Mariners one.

Coming Tomorrow- A veteran starter for a team that technically still has a playoff shot but...I mean, come on.

If You Don't Build it...

 

As I write this, the Philadelphia Phillies are playing a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins in a cornfield in Iowa. You can watch it on Netflix I think, if they somehow manage to figure out how a national telecast works. Many Phillies fans are convinced this will be the last time in 2026, or possibly this decade, that the Phillies will make must-see television. I am not that cynical yet...but I'm getting close.

Let's be honest. The Phillies have looked rough. They needed an outfield bat and a fourth starter, and they got Luis Arraez, who is neither. And Arraez has been alright, but the problems still persist. The idea that Dombrowski had was using Bryan de la Cruz, Derek Hill and a returning Andrew Painter as a more cost-efficient, practical version of getting, say, Luis Robert, Mike Trout and Michael Wacha. Except you try telling that to a Philly fan. Every Christmas they want a Porsche, and don't understand how impractical, and impossible, it would be to get a new car every year. I'm not saying the Phils are asking too much, as they haven't won a ring since 2008, but we already knew this Phils team would be a step down from the last few years's, the midyear boom was a very nice surprise, and now that things are leveled, the fans are acting very entitled. Like 'HOW DARE WE NOT COMPETE'. My dude...in April you were expecting a fifth place finish. Now you're upset that the Braves are still better because they actually made the moves to keep the team young and keep the momentum. It really is impossible to please some Phils fans, and I say that as one of them.

But lately, things will be looking good, or Luzardo or Wheels will have a great start, and then Orion Kerkering will blow a save or Trea Turner will strike out with the bases loaded, and all of the sudden the team was never good to begin with. Have some nuance! The team is inherently good, this is just not their month. Anyone who thinks a bad August means the season's over has forgotten that the other rivals for a wild card spot include the Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates and Padres, all of whom we are better than [Padres is a stretch but the Phils' offense is better]. Panicking just makes Philly fans warm, I get it, they had 25 years of panicking in between championships. Minnesota fans have gone 30 years and they're not burning their city down.

At the end of the day, the Phillies still have a lot on their side. They do still have Luis Arraez, who, despite slumping a bit this week, is still Luis Arraez. They still have an incredible 1-2-3 punch of a rotation that will no doubt be a threat in a postseason situation. They still have Jhoan Duran, one of the best closers in baseball, who has a 1.74 ERA, 59 Ks, somehow even less runs allowed than last year, and 25 saves. And they still have Kyle Schwarber, who just hit his 36th home run and is hungry for more. This is not a perfect Phillies team, but neither was the 2022 iteration and they made a World Series. We're not a first round bye team, but we can grind up some momentum on the road to a championship series, and we might just need to do that again.

The Phillies season is not over yet. They're not on borrowed time. And this isn't the end. No use thinking like a spoilsport about it. That's not how you get through a month like this.

Coming Tomorrow- He was thought of as a last ditch effort to save a lost season. And now he's a key centerfield piece for a team that's charging towards first.

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2026

 Well...a lot happened this time around. 

Following the brass today was HARROWING. So much was happening, and so quickly. Almost evenly displaced as well, like there'd be a move, I'd have time to make a custom of them, and the next two moves would be up. And I think it was all a well rounded bunch. Last year the emphasis was on relief pitching, this year it was a little of everything. Some teams needed starting help, some teams needed outfield bats, some teams needed catchers [and some needed catchers and somehow forgot to deal for any]. A lot went down, even to the point where, after the BIG MOVE happened a few days ago, I was worried nothing would top it. And...I mean, we'll get to it, but there certainly was competition. 

I have a lot of other posts planned for deadline week, I have a 'best of the rest' one planned, I have a 'the ones I didn't understand' post in a bit. But we've got to do the top 10. This kept sliding by the whole day and got to the point where it is now. One spot stayed the same. And...yeah.

Anyway, we start with one I really didn't think was gonna happen this deadline:

#10: Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Giants

So, the Yankees went into the deadline looking for bullpen work and a catching upgrade, and got neither. So Heliot Ramos, a very savvy lineup addition, makes it to the end of this list without going forward. Let me just stress that I love this move, Ramos is young, controllable, and powerful. He's been hurt for a bit but he's hitting .264 with 9 homers and 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's a ferocious hitter with a huge upside and a lot to accomplish, and...he gets to hit in Yankee stadium. The tricky part is it crowds the outfield a bit. Right now it's Ramos/Jones/Dominguez/Grisham, and eventually Bellinger and Judge are gonna come back and it's gonna get even more crowded. It's bad enough that Paul Goldschmidt's gonna have even less at-bats now [more on that in another post], now we're crowding the active roster. It's gonna be worth it if Ramos continues his very strong work, which is very likely.

#9: Taylor Ward to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Orioles

The Mariners have the kind of team that should work more in concept, because you have Randy Arozarena, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone and Josh Naylor there and the contact game is ailing. So in comes Taylor Ward to make it even more ridiculous. Ward's having another excellent season, but it's a very contact heavy one without much need for power. He only has 7 homers and 30 RBIs, and that is appalling from a guy who's had 100 RBIs and 36 homers JUST A SEASON AGO. Wouldn't a trip to Seattle be a fun time to start power-hitting? Ward's an excellent outfield bat with some versatility and perks, and he could be the lineup piece that the Mariners need to save their season. I just think he really fits with what they're doing in Seattle. I'm also really happy the Mariners didn't deal Kirby or Emerson. Yes, that prevents against the possibility of stretch Kade, but their rotation is excellent and didn't need to be broken up beyond Castillo.

#8: Kevin Gausman to the Cubs, 2 prospects to the Blue Jays

The Jays had a really weird deadline, because they both sold and bought at the same time. And arguably they should have committed more to one than both. Ultimately, they chose to part with one of their longest-tenured stars, the mighty Kevin Gausman, where he will become something the Cubs have desperately needed this year: an actual ace. Justin Steele's been hurt, Cade Horton's out for a while, Shota Imanaga's struggled. They need stability, and Gausman is a veteran arm with postseason experience who can back up the already strong offense. This is a downslope of a year compared to his peak, as he is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA, but he's still a fundamentally strong pitcher with a lot of great starts left in him. I think he will greatly aid the Cubs down the stretch. Perhaps not as much as someone a little further down, but enough to land on this list.

#7: Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Giants

This is arguably a little low, but it's down here because the Phillies really needed a better option at fourth or fifth starter and didn't get one. They also needed an outfield bat...and didn't get one. So Luis Arraez, as good as he is, is an odd consolation for so many pieces of this lineup that needed help, and if we miss out on a World Series, it could be Dombrowski's fault for not going further. However...the Phillies now have Luis Arraez. And that's a very good thing. One of the best contact hitters in the game, and a terrific defensive 2nd baseman, joins this lineup, and moving Stott, Bohm and Harper around supremely improves the defense in general. Arraez is electric wherever he is, and the Phils could see that fully going forward. We also got Caleb Killian, who's a terrific bullpen arm with a great upside. Very much a win for Philly, even if the team isn't fully improved by this deadline.

#6: Foster Griffin to the Guardians, 4 prospects to the Nationals.

The Guardians had a sneakily good deadline, bringing on a lot of pieces that lift this team up to where they can really chase Chicago. Foster Griffin was their best move, because their fifth man in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, and as good as he can be, they could do better. Their rotation is now Messick, Williams, Bibee, Griffin and Cantillo, and that's among the best in the bigs. Griffin isn't an ace, but he's an excellent mid-rotation arm with 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA under his belt, and that's from playing for a very okay Nationals team. He'll thrive in a playoff environment in Cleveland, and build on this belated rookie season to become an even bigger force going forward. 

#5: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs, Francisco Rojas to the Mets

This one ways a little more than Gausman to me for the Cubs pitching additions, because Holmes, until the injury, was having the best season of his career, and one of the only good seasons on the Mets. Through 9 games he had a 2.39 ERA, and was proving that the Mets moving him to the rotation was a good idea after all. The idea is that once Holmes is active [as well as Braxton Garrett], he'll be able to aid the Cubs rotation, and I see him as a front-facing integral arm that could lead them through some postseason games. Tyrone Taylor's also an excellent outfield depth option for this team, and could be very helpful on a postseason roster. The Cubs weren't fully ready before, and now they are.

#4: Freddy Peralta to the Rays, 3 prospects to the Mets

This deal will work out if the thesis, that the Mets were just a really poor fit for Peralta, is true. Peralta succeeded in Milwaukee, a small market team built on contact and pitching. That's also the Rays. Low budget, small core, close wins, and an impressive rotation. Peralta levels it up, as good as Rasmussen and Martinez have been. Shane McClanahan's gonna miss some time, and Peralta will be relied upon to deliver Brewers numbers as an ace for a Rays team with a shot at a #1 seed. Peralta's 4.99 ERA will need to come down if the Rays want to take advantage of this deadline, and I have a feeling it will. Meanwhile, Jett Williams is still chilling in the Brewers' farm system, and Brandon Sproat is getting all kinds of starts, so...lolMets.

#3: Liam Hicks to the Rays, Brayden Taylor and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

I like this one a little better for the Rays, simply because it fixes a lot of problems. It ups their catching game, ensuring Nick Fortes doesn't have to start behind the plate as much. It also gives them a proven contact bat with some kick against righthanded pitchers, and a very well-trusted lineup presence. I think he's just one of those guys who can pop into any lineup and just dive right in with excellent production, so I think he'll love Tampa. And also, he drains the Rays' farm system a little more so other teams can have a chance. Just a really cool, sneaky move by the Rays that positions them further towards a late run.

#2: Adley Rutschman and Jake Rogers to the Red Sox, Carlos Narvaez and 4 prospects to the Orioles.

I would say since Varitek left, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at catcher. So many guys that could have been the one, or should have. Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez, and the list goes on and on. So to finally have an answer at catcher, and for it to be Adley Rutschman a terrific hitting catcher whose team already foreshadowed this move by signing Samuel Basallo to a multi-year deal...that is huge. Rutschman's having another great season, but it did feel like this O's team was moving past the need for him. With this Boston team he'll fit right in, and be another huge lineup piece of a team that's quickly becoming a serious wild card threat. Very much a case of giving a team exactly the guy they need going forward.

But of course...nothing was gonna top the #1 piece on the board. Even if you disagree with its existence, this deal needed to be #1.

#1: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, River Ryan, Zyhir Hope and 1 other prospect to the Tigers

So. The best team in baseball got the best pitcher in baseball. In 16 starts, Skubal had a 2.79 ERA, 7 wins, 116 Ks and a 2.9 WAR. He's still in his peak, is effortlessly brilliant, and was never gonna stay in Detroit. The Dodgers taking him happened because they had a well-stocked farm system where even their lower tier prospects were more than other teams were offering. It's disappointing that, like a lot of recent Dodger developments, nobody else could stop it from happening. But now Sku gets to help the Dodgers go for a threepeat, and it's gonna make electric October baseball even if they don't get all the way. It's also gonna add fuel to the fire that Skubal will, in all likelihood, choose to stay in LA going forward. Definitely shifts the balance of the game, which is what the trade deadline is for. 

So yeah. A lot happened. A lot of teams won. And now the Dodgers are even scarier. Sets up the last third perfectly.

Sometime tomorrow there'll be a 'best of the rest' post most likely, with a lot of other deals that didn't make this list. 

Worth the Toll Fare?

 
Yanks-Phils. The series where once a year I can go 'whoever wins, I can be happy'. The Yanks had a rough June but seem to be good again. The Phils are fully in Donnie Baseball era and are still riding the midyear momentum despite a slight slowdown. Now they can just beat each other up in peace and hopefully continue to rise upward.

Last night's game was a win for the boys in navy, and they did it on one single Paul Goldschmidt home run, off Jesus Luzardo. I'm not sure if it's concerning that the only guy in the lineup that scored any runs was Paul Goldschmidt, who is 38, or comforting that the Yanks' starter not only held the Phils down but worked a shutout. Obviously these guys are trying to jumpstart their lineup and get it to where there aren't as many so-called automatic outs, and the deadline deals will likely help, but they need their lineup to feel like a deep well of possibilities. It's helping that Jazz Chisholm seems to be on the way up again, he's got 16 homers and 43 RBIs, with 27 steals. It's still a possibility that he repeats as a 30-30 guy, though...the initial prediction of 50/50 might be a-ways off. Still love what he brings to the team, even if he's a little full of himself. Dominguez and Volpe are on their way, and Dominguez already has 5 homers and 12 RBIs. But the issue is that Judge and Stanton are both out, McMahon and Wells have been embarrassingly limited, and the lineup still feels inconsistent. Will an Arraez or a Jeffers help this? Who knows.

But their strengths are still the same. Cody Bellinger is an excellent contact hitter and made a game-saving catch last night in left. Cam Schlittler is still a Cy Young candidate with so many strengths, and now Cole and Fried are back and healthy, ensuring the pitching is as strong as it was meant to be [and don't count Warren or Weathers out entirely either]. Brent Headrick has been untouchable as a setup man, and David Bednar finally feels like The Renegade again. They're still a formidable team with a halfway decent chance of lapping the Rays very soon, and they could go on a nice run even if the 'run it back' strategy has deterred many pundits from thinking there'll be palpable success.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are resting on the fundamentals. The top 3 guys in the rotation, Kyle Schwarber, and the CBP atmosphere. And they're hoping that's enough. Right now it is. For a lot of this season it has been that simple. Maybe I'm underselling it- Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Jhoan Duran and occasionally Alec Bohm have been very helpful. But it really comes down to Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo being on top of their games. Luzardo, despite giving up the fatal homer last night, has been lights-out the last two months, and has a 3.30 ERA in 20 starts. Sanchez has been a little shakier this month but still has a 2.71 ERA, a league-leading 12 wins and 151 Ks. Wheeler, despite the missed month, is otherworldly right now, 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 Ks in 16 appearances. If the sportswriters didn't have a bias against him for some reason, I think that should result in Cy Young votes, but...y'know, I don't think he'll be the shiniest object for some reason. 

There's still a deep pit in the lineup that's trying to be exhumed. Turner, Stott and Crawford just aren't cutting it right now. Realmuto is better but not peak J.T. The Derek Hill addition has helped more than anyone has thought, he's hitting .290 with 4 homers and 9 RBIs, and I'm of the opinion that, even if the Phils bring on some new guys, Hill should keep starting. Dude deserves it. There's also the usual problems of a lack of rotation depth and a mess in the bullpen. We will no doubt try to pull bullpen upgrades but I still think it's just cursed. Duran is the outlier. We've brought in so many sure bets and they've all keeled over. This McFarlane kid better be something different. The idea is the Phils will try and pull in a big ticket rotation guy, and that could mean anything from Skubal to Wacha to Peralta to 'well, here's Tomoyuki Sugano, have fun'. 

I want both of these teams to go deep. They both technically could, but still have some issues to deal with. We'll see how it pans out ultimately, but at the very least we're in an era where both my favorite teams are competitive and fun, and that's always better for me.

Coming Tonight: Ironically a guy who might be headed to New York if you believe the rumors. 

2026 All-Star Rosters: Who You Callin' Legend?

 

Before I get into the specifics of who'll be occupying my city in a couple weeks, a word on how asinine the system of roster reveals is. A couple days ago, someone posted on Twitter that the streets of Philadelphia were already laden with banners depicting the all-star selections and nominees, guys like James Wood and Matt Olson and Nick Kurtz, two days before the 'official' release. So if the people that make the banners know ahead of time....and the teams know ahead of time....why draw it out so the fans, who this is FOR, know last? It's the same energy of holding a wedding right above a train station in 100 degree heat. Not even pretending it's about the common folk anymore.

Alright, alright, so they did announce the rosters tonight, for the benefit of us, and they had to act surprised as if everybody in the industry hadn't known for a week. When they do the Oscars, only the people in the back know what's in the envelopes. It's not like you cut to Timothee Chalamet and he mouths 'I lost' to the camera. There's speculation, but it doesn't come off like a badly kept secret. That's what this feels like now.

Anyway. The thing I do every year. Right.

Last week I made a bunch of predictions of who'd make the roster, which would inform my reactions to the actual decisions made. They were based on who was having the best seasons, who would be picked by the league AND the players, and who was the most deserving from each squad. These picks were made with enough of the voting of the starting lineup having elapsed, so I guessed all of those pretty much, and was spot-on. Everybody else I took some wild guesses with, and now we're gonna see how far off I was.

So, let's start with the AL:

Starters:

C: Shea Langeliers, A's. Love that it's happening, more deserving than Kirk. Way ta go.

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays. So...so the A's fans could vote Langeliers, but they couldn't vote for the guy who's having an MVP season?? That's the part that vexes me. Vladdie starts every year, most of the time he deserves to, this year he's been kinda meh. Nick Kurtz deserves to start. The Jays massive outweighed even the most sensible of the already-small A's fanbase, which is wild because Jacob Wilson started last year. Anyway, Vlad I kinda get but...really should have been Kurtz. Or Rice. [UPDATE: Apparently Vladdie seems to know this, and is sitting this one out. Kurtz gets to start in his place. As it should have been all along.]

2B: Ernie Clement, Blue Jays. This is where the Jays voting massive made themselves the most clear, as he led the AL. Honestly, good for him. Deserves an accolade for how great he's been.

SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals. No brainer.

3B: Junior Caminero, Rays. If J-Ram hadn't been hurt it'd have been closer, but Caminero's EARNED this after the last week of power.

OF: Mike Trout, Angels. Absolutely. I'm glad he seems to be healthy enough to make the game.

OF: Aaron Judge, Yankees. Yes, but won't be playing, which we kinda knew and could have maybe resulted in a different final 3. Cody Bellinger should take his spot.

OF: Byron Buxton, Twins. So happy this is happening. Deserves it.

DH: Yordan Alvarez, Angels. Of course. Who else, other than Yandy Diaz, deserved it more?

Reserves:

C: Dillon Dingler, Tigers. Called this one, he's been excellent.

C: Adley Rutschman, Orioles. Did not call this one, I A.) thought Gunnar Henderson would be the O's nod and B.) thought Rice would negate the need for a third catcher. But fine with this.

1B: Ben Rice, Yankees. Deserves it.

1B: Nick Kurtz, A's. Deserves to start. 

2B: Travis Bazzana, Guardians. Called it. What a year from the rookie.

SS: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers. I thought Gunnar Henderson would get this spot, can't be too mad at McGonigle getting his due though.

3B: Miguel Vargas, White Sox. Called it. Him being the only White Sox rep is an absolute travesty and proof of league bias.

OF: Cody Bellinger, Yankees. Duh. Should start.

OF: Randy Arozarena, Mariners. I thought they'd give it to Julio but Randy's honestly had the better season. Like Vargas, him being the only Mariner, especially when two last place teams get two reps apiece, is a CRIME.

OF: Riley Greene, Tigers. This is a pretty savvy pick, but I honestly thought Wilyer Abreu would go here. Fine with this though.

DH: Yandy Diaz, Rays. It'd have been a shame if he didn't the way he's been hitting.

Pitchers:

SP: Dylan Cease, Blue Jays. A shoo-in, for sure.

SP: Parker Messick, Guardians. I actually guessed Gavin Williams would get the nod, but this makes more sense.

SP: Drew Rasmussen, Rays. Called it.

SP: Joe Ryan, Twins. Called it, deserves it.

SP: Cam Schlittler, Yankees. Absolutely, and he should start.

SP: Ranger Suarez, Red Sox. DID NOT CALL THIS ONE. I had this spot going to Nick Martinez.

SP: Michael Wacha, Royals. I don't agree with this one at all. You mean to tell me that you didn't have room for Tarik Skubal but you had room for Michael Wacha? Not to disparage Wacha, he's having a fine season, but I thought Skubal deserved a spot. OR. OR HOW ABOUT LOGAN GILBERT? OR ANY MARINERS PITCHER? Either of those guys would have fit better than a Wacha rep. Schneider only wanted to carry 7 starters. Alrighty.

RP: Bryan Baker, Rays. This one surprised me. Martinez doesn't get it but Baker does. I do think it does ultimately make sense, I just don't know if I'd have included as many relievers as it entails to get to him on the list.

RP: Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox. At the last moment I swapped Jacob Latz to his spot but he was deserving of it. 

RP: Jacob Latz, Rangers. Only Rangers nod. I'd have thought Ezequiel Duran would have squeaked in but I guess not.

RP: Cade Smith, Guardians. Shoo-in, of course.

RP: Louis Varland, Blue Jays. Nobody's been doing it better, so of course he's here.

NL:

Starters:

C: Drake Baldwin, Braves. I do think he deserves this, I'm just worried because he's gone very cold since coming off the IL.

1B: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers. Matt Olson deserved this but I can't stay too mad at Freddie.

2B: Ozzie Albies, Braves. Can't really argue with that.

SS: C.J. Abrams, Nationals. With the season he's having, absolutely.

3B: Max Muncy, Dodgers. I guess so. I don't know if there was anybody that deserved it more, I just feel like the Dodgers fans really made their voices heard this year.

OF: Brandon Marsh, Phillies. I am 100% here for this. I dunno how we got Philly to vote for this, especially considering Harper, Schwarber and Turner couldn't get the votes. But I'm grateful.

OF: Juan Soto, Mets. Very much atones for last year's snub.

OF: Andy Pages, Dodgers. I was thinking Acuna would win the vote and just hand the position to Pages, but we cut the middleman out here.

DH: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers. Again, Schwarber might have deserved this more but we've gotta have Ohtani there. In his prime, with LA, we have to have him represent the sport.

Reserves:

C: William Contreras, Brewers. Called it, deserves it.

C: Hunter Goodman, Rockies. Called it, also deserves it. Only Rockie, as predicted.

1B: Matt Olson, Braves. Should be starting.

1B: Bryce Harper, Phillies. This is a surprise. Good surprise though. This was apparently Rob Manfred's 'legend pick'. Let's examine that. Last year, Rob Manfred came into the Phillies clubhouse with his pro-salary-cap propaganda, and Bryce Harper told him to leave, and the idea from the league was that the worker advocating for better wages was being the bad guy. So...what do we make of this??? Is Manfred trying to extend an olive branch before ensuring a lockout? What the hell is this move? I'm happy about it, Harper's having a great year, but...it's such an odd choice, making THIS the 'legend' pick. Cause it also reinforces the Dombrowski 'oh he's past his peak' thing, expressly calling him a legend. Like, you know if Verlander was healthy, Manfred would have advocated for him, but in lieu of that, we have...this really awkward move. I dunno, man. It gets stranger..

1B: Sal Stewart, Reds. Okay, so, Harper's shoehorned in, right? So that means we are carrying FOUR first baseman. Five if you count Muncy, who's fundamentally a first baseman. Stewart plays first AND third, but first is his primary position. I think Stewart deserves this, but I had Matt Chapman in this spot because ideally, at some point, a third baseman should play third base. Like...

2B: Luis Arraez, Giants. Like, we do have Luis Arraez, who could play third....and also he's the SIXTH first baseman here. But like...you've got to get at least someone who's good at playing third, right? Matt Chapman's your guy. Or get Bregman or Arenado or somebody like that. No disrespect to Arraez, who deserves this, but if there's a lot of errors at third, don't be shocked.

SS: Otto Lopez, Marlins. Deserves it. 

OF: Corbin Carroll, D-Backs. Called it, here for it.

OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs. Called it, and called he'd be the only Cub. 

OF: Jordan Walker, Cardinals. Did not call this! Thought it'd be J.J. Wetherholt. Happy for Walker though.

OF: James Wood, Nationals. Didn't call this either, figured Michael Harris would have his spot. This honestly makes more sense though. Would have preferred Chourio making it in any case.

DH: Kyle Schwarber, Phillies. Wouldn't make sense without him. Remember, there could be a tiebreaker swing-off.

Pitchers:

SP: Chase Burns, Reds. Deserves it, for sure.

SP: Max Meyer, Marlins. Absolutely called it, deserves it.

SP: Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers. Is not going to play. Which is fair, he's starting next sunday. If there's suddenly a vacancy...might I suggest adding Zack Wheeler, like you should have all along???

SP: Eduardo Rodriguez, D-Backs. Didn't expect this one. To me, Kyle Harrison deserves this spot. 

SP: Chris Sale, Braves. Absolutely.

SP: Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies. Should start now that the Miz isn't.

SP: Paul Skenes, Pirates. Would ya believe I actually thought Braxton Ashcraft would be here in his place? I guess Skenes kinda does have to be there though.

SP: Logan Webb, Giants. I had Wheeler in his spot, but Webb's such a good pitcher that I can't be too mad.

SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers. 100%. Wrobleski should have had a chance, but Yoshi's something special.

RP: Jhoan Duran, Phillies. In Philadelphia? That's a no-brainer.

RP: Raisel Iglesias, Braves. At the last second I swapped Aaron Ashby into his place, but Iglesias is having a terrific year. Maybe Ashby slides in to replace a guy pitching sunday.

RP: Mason Miller, Padres. Absolutely deserves it. Wild that he's the only Padre.

So yeah, aside from one or two really painful omissions [Wheeler, NL third baseman, the rest of the Mariners], this is pretty spot on. But of course, people are gonna start getting injured and the second and third team guys are gonna land on here, and I'm not gonna vibe with all of them. So I hope for prolonged health and sunday rainouts for all of these folks, and for a really fun Philly-set ASG. Is that too much to ask?? Probably.

Hot Wheels

 

I am amused by the fact that Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom seem to have the exact opposite career trajectories. deGrom has an unbelievable career start, then misses a ton of time to injuries and suddenly he's 38 and past his peak. Wheeler missed a ton of seasons in his 20s, locked in at 28 and never looked back, now pitching as strong as ever at 36. In about 10 years there's gonna be a lot of conversations about who was better, and at his peak, deGrom was better than anybody. 

But...let's actually compare. From 2018 til now, Zack Wheeler has a 98-53 record, a 3.06 ERA, 1530 strikeouts, a 1.056 WHIP and a 41.0 WAR. From 2014 til 2021, Jacob deGrom had a 77-53 record, a 2.50 ERA, 1505 Ks, a 1.011 WHIP and 39.7 WAR. That is...close. It depends on what you value. That's 198 games of deGrom vs. 227 games of Wheeler...with playoff starts. And...this period of Wheeler's career is still going, cause he hasn't left his peak yet. I thought there'd be a chance with that injury last season, but since he's been back, Wheels is 6-1 with a 2.01 ERA, 62 Ks and a 3.3 WAR. That is a 10 game period and he's still been one of the best pitchers in baseball. 36 years old.

Wheels' Phillies run has been absolutely legendary, like what if Roy Halladay never got hurt. He's been so consistent, so reliable, so likable and genuinely among the best in the league every year. Three times now he has been robbed of a Cy Young, and seeing as he already missed a month it's looking like it'll be four times. With Wheels, Sanchez and Luzardo, plus the possibility of Andrew Painter eventually getting his act together, this rotation seems to be sorted for a while going forward. This next week or so, maybe more, will be tricky, because with Painter down, we're left with a hole in the fifth spot, and no one is quite sure how to fill it. Alan Rangel maybe? Bryse Wilson? Possibly some Iron Pig having a nice stretch? Whoever it ends up being, they need to add some kind of stability, cause we weren't getting it with Nola and Painter together.

Similarly, filling right field for the rest of the year will be tricky with Adolis Garcia down. Gabriel Rincones and Derek Hill are both getting looks but aren't completely there yet. Dombrowski seems to have a plan for the deadline, but until then they just need to find a working fill-in, and I think that will be Rincones, who looks okay. Thankfully enough of the rest of this team is working that it's just those spots, but they're pivotal spots. Bryce is going cold again, but Turner's heating up, and Schwarber just keeps doing his thing, so I think there can be balance, and it can keep this Phils team moving forward.

We should be able to find leverage over the Mets, but given the fun Juan Soto had with Aaron Nola, you can't really tell. 

Coming Tonight: His dad apparently had the odd start in the majors, and now he's doing his own thing in a smaller market. 

Behind the Wheels

 

One of the reasons why many pundits worried that the Phillies' regime would die out after this year was the sustainability of the once-strong rotation. With Suarez and Elfin gone, Walker on the way out and more emphasis on Painter and Luzardo, the idea was that either Nola and Wheeler hunker down for the long run or trail off. And in the middle of all this was Cristopher Sanchez, who, if you'll recall, was a 50/50 for the last rotation spot out of camp a few years ago. Sanchie was a serviceable fifth man in 2023, put on more of a role for an 11-win full season in 2024, then had an incredible season deserving of both an ASG nod [but nobody wanted to go pretty much] and a Cy Young [but, y'know, Skenes]. 

And now...Cristopher Sanchez is the best pitcher in baseball. He's only allowed one run since May began, has a 1.47 ERA on the season, has struck out 95, and has a 4.3 WAR. The level of dominance Sanchie has been capable of this month does not come around often. Misiorowski is doing this as well, but...before that it had never happened to 2 guys in the same month. And what's fantastic is that Sanchez worked his way into this position, and now he's essentially the #1 guy.

Getting Wheeler back has been really nice, because Wheels is still very much in his prime, and similarly unhittable. He's got a 2.27 ERA, 40 Ks and 4 wins through 7 starts. Zack Wheeler, kinda like Gerrit Cole, is quieting the injury concerns and is pitching like he was before. Having Sanchez and Wheeler at the top of the rotation is a luxury a lot of teams simply don't have. Two untouchable, formidable guys at the top of their game, firing on all cylinders. 

Now...the trouble is getting running support behind them. As we're seeing with this Dodgers series, they pick their select moments to show up. Edmundo Sosa has been clutch for this team, but if it wasn't for him, they'd have been swept. Schwarber can show up and hit a home run, or Marsh and Harper can have big nights, but the bulk of the team is still limping along. Bohm WAS improving but that seems to have subsided. I think Turner's trying to catch fire, he's still not where he usually is around this time of year. And now J.T. might be out for some more time, meaning unless we really wanna go with the Rafael Marchan show again, this team needs to seriously think about the next generation behind the plate. I dunno who we have that's ready, though. We can't even get Otto Kemp time in the majors, let alone anyone who'd need to be there. 

So the flaws are still evident, even as this team approaches .500 and looks better than they had before Mattingly took over. People are convinced a midseason trade would save the team, a Trout or Robert trade, the likes of which we've been hearing rumors about since like 2023. I dunno if these'll actually happen this time. We just have to see how the Phils progress as we get further to July, and if the lineup can actually turn a corner. 

Coming Tonight: Speaking of teams that aren't hitting, an unlikely everyday catcher hoping to once again jumpstart some forward momentum at the plate.

Money for Dingers in 2026

 

So, to recap. Two of the most effective home run hitters in baseball signed new contracts this offseason. One has been called a necessary and needed move, the other has been questioned and criticized. Both are essentially doing what they were paid to do, but because one has done it a lot more frequently, and immediately, that one's seen as superior to the other one, who's younger and arguably more consistent.

Pete Alonso is 31 years old, and to date he's hit 272 home runs in 8 years. With the exception of 2020, only one of those years finished without Alonso reaching 35 home runs. The man is a hitting machine who makes the all-star team virtually every year, routinely knocks over 100 RBIs, and last year led the league in doubles with 41. Yet when the Orioles signed him to a 5-year deal a few months ago, the immediate response was trepidation. A lot of that had to do with the last time the O's gave a contract to a power-hitting 1st baseman, Chris Davis, where the power suddenly shut off without warning midway through. Yet I don't know if a lot of it was fair to Alonso, who through his first 7 seasons proved himself superior to Davis, and arguably more multifaceted. Davis was a good hitter with a few strong years; Alonso's a reliable lineup presence who can come through when you need him. 

So far for Baltimore, Alonso has 8 home runs and 26 RBIs. It looks inferior when you compare him to a guy who has, say, 20 homers by now, but knowing that Alonso regularly hits his stride midyear, and has hit 106 homers past the trade deadline in his career, it's not especially scary. The other thing you need to remember is that the Orioles' lineup right now is built in a way where Alonso doesn't always need to hit the home runs. Sometimes it's Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman, sometimes it's hot-hitting rookie Samuel Basallo, and eventually it'll be Taylor Ward, who's surprisingly only hit 1 home run despite a solid contact spring. Alonso is the key power hitter, but it's not as on him as it may have been in New York. 

Not helping Alonso's value has been the generally mild start the Orioles have had, with a lot of missed opportunities, a disappointing start from newly-extended Shane Baz, the complete implosion of Trevor Rogers and a really messy May. There are elements of this team that work, like Basallo as an extra power bat and Rico Garcia's breakout year in the 'pen, but as a unit they're not on the same page yet, and it's led to disappointing baseball.

Now, as for Kyle Schwarber. He's 33 years old, has hit 360 home runs in 6 years, and signed a 5-year contract to DH in Philly til 2030. Again, Schwarber is the same kind of hitter as Alonso, he just strikes out a ton more and only recently remembered how to hit things other than home runs. But because Philly fans need that immediate source of dopamine, he's regarded a ton higher, and because he's hit 20 so far his contract seems like more of a win than Alonso's. Forgetting that...yeah, he's 33, and he strikes out 200 times a year. The power ceiling is always super high, and with that 20 HR mark he's already staring down his career high of 56 that he set just last year, but that's basically all the Phils are paying for. Well...that and having the ultimate clubhouse enthusiast, nicknamed DJ Schwarbs on account of his post-game music selection. He's the kind of guy you want on your team, and he's the kind of guy who makes you want to make a postseason run, as he's been proving since he woke up the Sox in 2022, or even his rookie year in 2016 in Chicago. 

The Phils are 14-4 since firing Rob Thomson and bringing Don Mattingly up, and Schwarber's power has been one key aspect of the surge. Bryce Harper's power has also helped, his one man spite mission against Dave Dombrowski has resulted in a .277 average, 12 homers and 30 RBIs. Brandon Marsh is hitting .327, Bohm and Stott are very quickly heating up, Sanchie and Wheels are lights-out [Sanchez just had a gem of a CGSO], Duran still works as a closing option, and those close games can be won [just look at the Pirates series, or last night's game against the Reds]. They're only a game over .500 and in 2nd, but they look better than they have all year, and as they head for a really tough week of matchups they have so much more life in them.

I think both power hitters will finish with seasons they can be proud of. I just hope the fans will take everything into account as they judge these contracts. Cause they really are the same kind of hitter, and they both deserve the same level of respect.

Coming Tonight: If he were to have stayed healthy in every season, he'd have around 400 homers and be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. But alas...

Complaining Works...Sort Of

 

'Fire the manager' syndrome is such a strange derangement. Because it leads you to believe that the actions of players, executives, opposing schedules and coaches can be excused if the manager gets canned. Forget that he got a team to a World Series, forget the years of equity, no, somebody's gotta pay, and it's that guy, and the turnaround will confirm it was his fault. It's never that simple, regardless of what any Philly sports fan would have you believe.

But so far, two teams have fired their managers, and both have seen some improvement. In one case it's a little more prominent. 

Let's start with the more basic case. The Red Sox. Going into this year it was a possibility that they'd suck, and even if they put money into the team, that wouldn't take away the fact that so many strong pieces have actively left. Alex Bregman did not want to come back, despite the wonderful year he had. Rafael Devers left as soon as he could. Nick Pivetta signed with a west coast team that was arguably headed in a similar direction. That anybody actually wanted to come back, regardless of whether or not it was someone who a lot of teams actively avoided signing [Aroldis Chapman], is surprising. But they built a strong enough team for 2026, and for a while it truly did not work. So out went Alex Cora, and the majority of the coaching staff, and in went Chad Tracy.

The Sox were 10-17 before the firing. They're 6-4 since. Not earth-shattering, not season-saving, but you can see things turning around.

Mainly, a lot of the pieces have evened out after some rough starts. Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray struggled in early Boston starts, they've rebounded in recent weeks. Suarez now has a 2.77 ERA, and since Crochet landed on the IL has been the closest thing this team has to an ace. Caleb Durbin has also improved a bit since his dismal start, and you can slowly see Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer begin to pick things up. The main assets are still veteran guys like Willson Contreras and Trevor Story, which is somewhat concerning. I think Roman Anthony is on his way, but it feels like every time he's about to get going he gets hurt, much like a different New York outfielder.

At the very least, 38-year-old Aroldis Chapman is still a very sure bet in the ninth. I think Chapman wants to retire as a Red Sock, and is fully embracing his villain arc after reaching glory in New York. Good for him. He's still got that unsavory subtext to him, but damn if he's not a scary closing gun still. In 12 appearances he has 7 saves, 14 Ks and a 0.77 ERA. That's vintage Chapman. He doesn't have a particularly great bullpen behind him this year but he's giving his all.

It's still not entirely pretty, but you can see more life in the Sox than there was before, and that's a start I guess. I don't know if it means they're a challenger in this division this year, but who knows.

Now, as for the other team that fired their manager...

Gotta be honest...I didn't think firing Rob Thomson was the answer. He was a steady captain the last few years, got the team to a World Series, wasn't flashy or particular. There's a case to be made about whether or not his managerial style actually had an impact on the team or if he was a George Seifert type who inherited greatness and did what he could to contain it. But I didn't know about firing Thomson in April before things really got going. But, that's what the Phillies did. First Taijuan Walker went, then Thomson followed, and then Don Mattingly took the helm. 

And of course, since Mattingly took over, the Phils have been 8-1. Probably 8-2 by the end of the night, the A's have been hammering the hell out of them [as they tend to at times], but still. Something's clearly different. Bryce Harper's hitting again. Jesus Luzardo's found his control. The bullpen's turned into an impressive ragtag unit of guys that haven't pissed me off yet. Somehow Brandon Marsh is off to the best start of any hitter, hitting .336 with 4 homers and 19 RBIs. The big man has always been a lower tier Phillies weapon, and seeing him finally step up again is a very good thing. Would love to see something similar from Bryson Stott as well.

I think it's also helped that we've gotten Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto back after some injuries, and they're still in pretty good shape. Wheeler's got a 3.12 ERA and 18 Ks in 3 starts, he's definitely his old self. J.T.'s hitting .265 and is still a great catcher. I dunno if he was worth everything we signed him for but he's better than Rafael Marchan, that's for sure. There's still some weak spots in the lineup, and there's still some guys that should be playing better right now [Bohm mostly], but this is an improved version of the team I saw last month right at the beginning of the losing streak. And if people are crediting Mattingly rather than just...the momentum swing that this team usually deals with, then whatever.

I think the Phillies have a better shot going forward than the Red Sox solely because the Phillies are built better right now, though admittedly both teams have an issue with young players not performing as well as intended. Still, we've got 5 months left and a lot of twists and turns, so both teams could be in opposite places weeks from now.

Coming Tomorrow- Infield specialist and occasional impressive bat for the team that is currently leading the AL Central. 

The Return of Nola Day

 

You forget how much of a luxury it is for a guy to pitch for the same team for over a decade, routinely make all his starts, and continue to achieve the same level of fan support. Without Wainwright or Kershaw being active, it really is just Aaron Nola right now that's accomplished this. With the exception of last year, where frankly he was kinda burned out, and 2016 and 2017, where he was spending time in Lehigh Valley to get the balance right, every year of his career he's made all his starts and been a reliable, well-loved arm for the Phillies. I've been to my share of Nola Days, I've seen him flirt with a no-hitter, and I've grown to respect him as a veteran arm in an age where the Phillies were more prone to deal a great pitcher, if we'd even had one.

The main issue many fans have with Aaron Nola is those meatballs right down the middle. He can have a start where he strikes out 8 or 9 batters and gets the win but still gives up a home run or two that could have been avoided. In 2024, despite a great season, he led the lead in homers allowed with 30. In 17 starts last year he gave up 18. And in three 2026 starts, despite a 3.63 ERA and 19 Ks, he's allowed...three home runs. When you have guys like Zack Wheeler, Andrew Painter and Cristopher Sanchez, who really don't give up long balls like that, it stands out. And it'll ultimately prevent Nola's stats from being fully embraced when it comes time for HOF enshrinement. The dude's likely to hit 2000 Ks this year, and will very likely get to start his 300th game. But he wasn't THE BEST consistently enough to get the rest of the league to really care, not like Waino and Kersh did for sure. 

At the same time, he's still a very good starting pitcher, who's had a great career, and still has a handful more seasons to play in Philly. He starts tonight's game against the Cubs, and I will be in attendance. There is the concern that the Cubs' menagerie of power hitters could get to him, but seeing as last night was a race to see whose lineup could wake up first that the Phils ultimately won, I'm still optimistic.

The Phillies themselves have began the year 8-8, and haven't really been hitting as well as the reputation would imply. Last night Kyle Schwarber had 2 homers, but I'm still not sure if this'll be a messy 40+ homer season for Kyle or a dignified one. Bryce Harper's thankfully hitting, mostly out of spite, and he's got 3 homers and 10 RBIs already. But honestly, this lineup still feels like something's missing. Alec Bohm is being given more power opportunities and he's not taking advantage of them. Turner and Garcia have been good but not great. Justin Crawford is a terrific contact hitter but isn't anywhere in the lineup where he can really bat runs in. It just seems like an incomplete hitting unit, hence the struggles.

Thankfully the pitching's been doing a lot for us, especially the bullpen. Jhoan Duran, thankfully, IS the guy for this team, and has been terrific so far. Tim Mayza and Tanner Banks have been terrific, and Brad Keller's slowly catching up. And let's not ignore the fact that Andrew Painter's the kind of guy that can recover from a horrible migraine incident, come into the game 2 innings late and still be absolutely elite. Even with the rotation security, we NEED a guy like that. 

The Phillies still look good in points, but you can never tell which team's gonna show up, or when they're actually gonna hit. Hopefully they can continue their damage from last night into a game I'll be there for.

Coming Tomorrow- If the Phillies' have struggled hitting, his team has REALLY struggled hitting, but thankfully he can still pitch 6 innings of clean baseball.

Comeback Rookie of the Year

 

There have been a lot of unnecessary additions to rookie discourse, like teams intentionally keeping players down to control service time, Topps' unnecessarily early rookie cutoff only depicting Rookie of the Year stories that happen in the first one and a half months of the season, the entire 2020 season, where Devin Williams got an award for having a good August, and the very definition of what counts as a rookie season keeping players eligible for awards even after making a breakout impact. It's all a little bit broken, and it's kind of unfairly balanced against the players' side. I still don't think Luis Gil deserved a ROY award in 2024, because to me his rookie season was 2021, because that was the season where he set a rookie record. 

But what's really complicated talking about rookies now is the unnecessary conditioning of pitchers to throw hard in their teens and overexert themselves to the point where, by the time they hit the majors, they're a ticking time-bomb waiting for Tommy John surgery. Nobody works their way up anymore, nobody embraces craftsmanship. It's all about smoke, because it's all about longballs. All extremes. So the rookie of the year, if it's a pitcher, is a lot of the times 'which pitcher went the longest without getting hurt'. Luis Gil was that and he wasn't even a rookie. 

So it's gonna be very interesting to see how people talk about Andrew Painter this year. Andrew Painter is 100% a rookie, he's never played an MLB game, his likely Opening Day roster inclusion will mark his MLB debut. But with the way Painter's development has gone, I'm not even sure if this season will truly feel like a rookie campaign for him. Painter, a 2021 first-rounder, was looking MLB-ready for a 2023 debut, and then in Spring Training his arm started showing wear, and so he got Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2024, and was shaky in Lehigh Valley all last year, hence no call-up. If he had made the majors in 2023, if that damage was found a month or so later, then some of those 5.20 ERA Lehigh starts would have been major league starts, meaning 2026 would be primed for a comeback campaign, sort of like Casey Mize last year. 

But because Painter never reached the majors, his comeback season at 23 will also be his rookie season. Meaning if, by some chance, Painter starts 32 games with a 3 ERA and wins a Rookie of the Year, which is not impossible, it'll have some very interesting subtext, a rookie season with the energy of a post-TJ comeback season. How will it be judged? How will PAINTER be judged going forward? 

If any Phillies season would need a dominant Andrew Painter season, it would be this one. Ranger Suarez is gone, Zack Wheeler might still miss some starts, Aaron Nola might be past his prime, and it's really looking like Taijuan Walker might be relied upon for a bit. In a scenario where Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Nola and Walker are rounding out the Opening Day rotation, and the Phillies want to remain a match against the Mets and Braves, they need Painter as a great MLB option. It's a lot of pressure, yes, but seeing as Painter's been terrific went healthy, and went 13th overall for a reason, it could work out. The thing I think is troublesome is the fact that for the Phillies to retain dominance, they need Painter to get MLB hitting immediately, and I'm not 100% sure of that yet. 

The Phillies have the appearance of a team beckoning on diminishing returns, with no real new blood and a lot of core people hoping to shake off rumors of going past their prime. Andrew Painter, and for that matter Justin Crawford and the potential of an Aidan Miller debut, could quiet that. If there's a successful shift to the next era, the Phillies could remain a league superpower in the same way the Astros have, just persisting. It just takes a lot going right this year, and a full, healthy season from Painter is a huge part of that.