The Padres were so close to making something happen this year.
They were looking at a 2-1 lead while still at home, were giving the ball to their ace in a game against the Dodgers' bullpen, and all they needed to do was show up and they'd knock the top team off the board and advance to an NLCS, like they did in 2022.
But they didn't. They got clobbered in Game 4, and then couldn't outdo two home runs by the Dodgers in Game 5. The Padres scored 21 runs in the first three games of the NLDS, and 0 runs during the two games that would decide the series for LA. And they'd been able to get past both the bullpen and Yoshinobu Yamamoto before. They just picked the exact wrong time to go cold.
That, to me, is the turning point of the postseason. If San Diego is able to get anything done in Game 5, we have a far different final outcome. The Dodgers take off in Game 4, at the exact moment the Padres fall apart, and the Dodgers use this energy to win it all. I wish it hadn't happened at the expense of this Padres team, because they were the best team of the second half, and became absolutely unstoppable down the stretch. Machado had his fourth 100+ RBI season, Merrill came within inches of a Rookie of the Year award, Luis Arraez hit .300 with a third straight team, Dylan Cease was a hit upon arrival, and Mike Shildt really seems like a great fit for this team.
I think one of the wildest things about the 2020s as a decade so far is that one of the most consistent extra pieces, in all five years, has been Donovan Solano. Since breaking out in 2020, Solano has routinely amazed everyone in bench and utility roles, and been a very worthy all-around hitter for San Francisco, Cincinnati, Minnesota and now San Diego. Though defensively he could only do so much as a corner infield cover, Solano was still very helpful as an extra bat, hitting .286 with 8 homers and 35 RBIs. Somehow he ended the year with a higher OPS than Xander Bogaerts, which he should be proud of.
2025 Prediction: As much as I'd love Donnie Barrels to keep this up, he'll be 37 this year, and I think he'll have a less lethal go of things in a bench role somewhere else.
The big breakout bullpen piece, aside from Robert Suarez, was 25-year-old Jeremiah Estrada, picked up by the Padres after a few subpar years with the Cubs. Estrada had a pretty insane run in May, striking out 13 consecutive batters during a week. Ultimately, he'd finish with a 6-3 record, a 2.95 ERA and 94 Ks, a truly masterful year in a bullpen that relied on him heavily.
2025 Prediction: Nothing that incredible, but a solid season of work nonetheless.
The Padres' deadline moves were all really good this year, and they're all a big reason why the team came alive in the last two months of the season. I think everyone was a little confused when they got Martin Perez, as the Pirates kind of still needed him and the Padres were probably good on arms for the next two months. Yet somehow Perez and SD were an excellent match, as Perez went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 starts, striking out 44. Perez's Pittsburgh numbers were fine, but this was a really strong end to the year.
2025 Prediction: Sure, let's keep Perez's strong 30s going, he signs with a competitor as a low rotation piece and has a very nice full season.
The bullpen additions, though, made San Diego even more unstoppable. Bryan Hoeing and Jason Adam both had ERAs under 2 with the Padres, and the BIG bullpen addition, Tanner Scott, had a 2.73 ERA in 28 appearances, with 31 Ks and 3 wins. During the postseason, he was completely locked in, with 7 strikeouts and no earned runs in 5 appearances.
2025 Prediction: Gets one of the bigger contracts for a reliever this year, and does a decent enough job for them, without being as indispensable as he was for the Marlins and Padres this year.
Very late in the season, to supplant Higgy and...ensure Luis Campusano didn't have to play as often, the Padres snapped up Elias Diaz from the Rockies, after being cut in favor of Drew Romo. Many Rockies fans thought this was the wrong call, and seeing Diaz sign with a competitor must not have helped. Diaz had 12 games as a Padre, and had 4 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. He couldn't get anything done during the postseason.
2025 Prediction: Is a fun backup catching option somewhere.
Coming Tomorrow- The Padres' running out of steam was quick, but the Phillies running out of steam was sharper, and honestly more shocking.
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