For the past two seasons, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates have flirted, in fleeting moments, with legitimacy, and have yet to actually capitalize on it. While the window isn't exactly closing for either team, this may be their most crucial season yet to compete. The Brewers, as good as they were last season, aren't exactly a shoo-in for 1st, and may have to sweat it out like everyone else [rather than just waltzing to first like the Dodgers likely will]. The Cardinals may still be bottom-feeding, the Reds may be another year or so away, it's all kind of up in the air. And it may not be for long.
The Cubs have come the closest to actually competing, and for the past two seasons have finished second with an 83-79 record. Just a dash above .500, just a smidge away from a wild card spot. Same record and everything, two years running. And this is the Cubs in the Bellinger era, the team that can sign talent and piece together a competent lineup but still isn't all the way there yet. Clearly changes needed to be made. I didn't think one of them would be 'trading Cody Bellinger for a Triple-A pitcher' but here we are.
Miraculously, the Cubs still managed to attract strong upgrades this season, like Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ryan Pressly and, honestly by accident, Ryan Brasier. Even with the probability of a rookie like Matt Shaw or Gage Workman nabbing an infield spot as Nico Hoerner heals up, this is a pretty great looking lineup, and it might have the most potential production of anyone in the NL Central. Swanson, PCA, Tucker, Happ and Amaya all look primed for great years. The rotation, which, for the first time in 10 years won't have Kyle Hendricks in it, also looks pretty well rounded. The goal is to get a more 2023-esque year out of Justin Steele, who took a good couple months to get there last year. Steele has looked pretty good this spring, as have most of the rotation so far. It's also reassuring having Ben Brown as a pretty strong depth starter if things go south.
But again, there's no telling how this team will fail to meet expectations as well. Who'll go cold at the wrong time, who'll just refuse to play well. Ideally this doesn't happen, but it just keeps tending to, and so I'm kinda prepared for it.
The Pirates, meanwhile, have had collapses that are far sharper, and arguably funnier. The Pirates began the 2023 season as one of the best teams in baseball, and had a terrific record in April. And then the schedule evened out and they sort of gelled into their mediocrity. Last year the Pirates were at .500 at the All-Star Break, and with Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz all having terrific seasons, it looked like they had a chance, even becoming buyers at the deadline. But their torrid August and even more pathetic September led them to a last place finish. It looked avoidable, and yet it still happened.
This is very much a sign of the Bob Nutting teams, circumstances that seem advantageous that don't seem to work as well as before. The Pirates still have Isiah Kiner-Falefa from that competitive week, and while he does look to factor into this season at short, there's a ton of young competition throughout the infield, guys like Billy Cook, Nick Yorke and Enmanuel Valdez. Even Jared Triolo has been designated the professional utility man, and Spencer Horwitz seems to have taken 1st from him. IKF is looking to at least have a decent year, but even he might be in danger of a midseason trade if the youth progresses otherwise.
Ultimately, even if the lineup has a few too many question marks, the rotation looks great. Skenes and Jones at the top, Falter and Heaney in low positions, and Mitch Keller still steadily providing strong work even if the stats don't always show it. Keller, despite the higher ERA, still made all his starts last season and still notched 166 strikeouts. This will somehow be his age-29 season, and hopefully the team will give him a firmer backing before his prime years end. I think he's gotta be thankful he's no longer the ace thanks to Skenes, but he still has a lot of responsibility in this rotation, and I think he still has time to capitalize.
The Cubs have the best put-together team, but the Pirates have a chance of surprising people and becoming a fun team down the stretch, a lot like the Tigers last year. If the NL Central shifts this year in favor of one of these guys, I think I'll honestly be here for it.
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