Eagerly Awaiting the Payoff

 

Not everyone makes it as easy as Paul Skenes.

Sometimes you hit the ground running and give the team everything they've been hoping for immediately, with no learning curve. Paul Skenes took to the minors with the same energy he brought to LSU, and then to Pittsburgh with that continued energy, with no drop-off period. Limited innings maybe, but no drop-off. But then you have guys who'll struggle to live up to their reputations and make you wait. And either you stick with them or you give up. Joey Bart never got to become the successor to Buster Posey. Casey Mize looks really good in Spring Training play, but will it amount to a true comeback? The Tigers are holding out to see if it does.

In 2024, two of the biggest rookie prospects, and two very high draft picks, made their debuts. They were both demoted within a month. They both got a chance to resurface, and one sort of powered towards greatness, but both teams are waiting on full season efforts that capitalize on the hype. And yes, some guys just get there. Bobby Witt was FINE his first season and now is positively elite. Aaron Judge struggled to hit .200 in 2016 and can now hit .300 while also hitting 50 homers. Sometimes guys take time. 

What amazes me is that the Baltimore Orioles nearly gave up on Jackson Holliday, their kingmaker prospect, by including him in potential trade packages for Tarik Skubal. It didn't happen, but it nearly did. And yes, maybe Coby Mayo could have replaced him, maybe he was never intended to be in there, but...people did mention the possibility. This was when he was back in the minors. He had to be aware of the idea. 

In 60 games last season, even taking in account the midyear spike upon reentering the majors, Jackson Holliday hit .189 with 23 RBIs and 5 homers. By and large, he was basically a .219 hitter that fell victim to a really rough April call-up. Holliday's August delivered the majority of his offensive output, with 4 of his 5 homers and 15 of his 23 RBIs. If we can distill the energy of that August and stretch it over a whole season, preferably in a season where Holliday is older than 20, we could have something here.

So far, in 6 preseason games, Holliday is hitting .250 with 4 hits, 2 RBIs and a homer. This is an improvement, and proof that he's finally beginning to figure out MLB pitching. Not overwhelming proof, as NRI guy Vimael Machin has technically been more on target, but things are beginning to pick up. Holliday is poised to start the year as the everyday 2nd baseman for the O's, even if Ramon Urias still factors into the picture. The team still trusts him, and I think he'll capitalize on that this season.

Then you have Jack Leiter, another 2nd generation MLBer, one who was drafted 2nd overall and was a big star at Vanderbilt. Unlike Holliday, Leiter struggled in the minors before getting his act together in Triple-A, hence the 3 year development period. The MLB results once Leiter made it were...less than preferable. In 9 games, and 6 starts, he had a 8.83 ERA and 3 losses. It stuck out even more when Kumar Rocker, his old Vandy teammate, made it up and did a lot better. Rocker didn't win any games either, but he was a lot better at keeping runs down.

The Rangers have three rotation spots nailed down. Nate Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray. Tyler Mahle will probably get the fourth spot, provided he's healthy enough by the end of camp. And that last spot is down to Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Leiter. Bradford has way more MLB level success, even if he was injury-limited last year. Rocker has some serious perks and hasn't really bombed in the majors yet. And Leiter...outlook-wise brings up the rear. He hasn't done much successfully in the majors, or as much in the minors. So far Leiter has been used as a bullpen piece in camp, and he's been fine. Rocker has gotten rocked, but he's been trusted to start. So that means Leiter, a lot like Dane Dunning, might be a depth guy this year, used in relief from the jump but could start if people get injured. And with deGrom, Mahle and Bradford in the equation that's a pretty large possibility. 

So that's where we are. The Orioles still have faith in Holliday, while the Rangers are losing faith in Leiter. This could be the season where one, or both, turn things around. Or not. And both teams have to decide how to respond to that.