I was thinking about the 2018 Padres the other day. There's the joke that men think about the Roman Empire constantly, but I can bet you nobody thinks about the 2018 Padres. There are names on that team that just shouldn't be spoken. Christian Villanueva. Joey Lucchesi. Carlos Asuaje. They had a guy play in all 162, but he only hit .250 and most of you probably don't remember who even did that. It was dire. Positively dire.
And yet a youth movement was beginning to brew. The people that don't remember those dreary-ass end of the 2010s Padres teams remember that there were a ton of prospects that popped up around then and looked to take over, and...most of them were dealt before the Seidler runs. People like Nick Margevicius, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Ty France and Luis Urias. They were even more prominent in 2019, when the biggest prize of the farm system, Fernando Tatis Jr., took to the majors like a fish to water and, despite an injury costing him a chunk of the season, almost singlehandedly revitalizing the team.
And now you look at the Padres and they're almost unrecognizable from that scrappy, homegrown 2019 squad. First of all they took back the brown and gold, that was a great move heading into 2020, I'm glad Machado and Tatis only had one seeing wearing those unmemorable navy and greys. But, as I alluded to, pretty much every youth piece the Padres had in that 2018-19 era got dealt. It's really just Tatis and Adrian Morejon, a guy who's evaded trades by just not being healthy til now, left. It's rare for a team to sell almost the entirety of the farm system and still make it deep into the playoffs, but the Padres have done this, and are still competitors.
Tatis, though, still feels like an odd figure in the development of this team. This will be his sixth season, and his age 26 season, and while he already has a cumulative 21.7 WAR, the stardom that Tatis was promised still seems slightly distant. It's not that he hasn't performed well, but he's never gone a season without missing at least some time, he was out for the Padres' 2022 NLCS run, and he was never exactly exonerated after testing positive for PEDs. Moving Tatis to the outfield in 2023 did boost his star power, and his power numbers last year were welcome, but he hasn't hit .300 since his rookie season, he's hovering around the .276 zone as a career average, and the injury last season robbed him of finally making an impact. He's still one of the best in the league, yeah, but I don't know if Tatis has delivered anything as powerful as his pre-suspension material.
I do think Tatis will have a good season, but I get the clearest Juan Gonzalez vibes from him. Talented, capable of high highs, but the drawbacks are also unmistakably there.
Meanwhile, let's have a look at where some of the other late 2010s Padres prospects have ended up, and if they're in any way comparable to Tatis right now.
A's: Luis Urias had a couple of years as an infield starter with the Brewers, then when that didn't pan out he bounced around as an extra piece. With Sacramento, he has a chance to be a depth infielder, and if his bat shows up the A's would greatly appreciate another power piece.
Blue Jays: Eric Lauer, a couple years removed from an injury, is still kicking around the league. He was decent enough in an appearance for the Jays. No clue if they have room for him though. They definitely don't have any in the rotation.
Brewers: Manuel Margot's 2024 with Minnesota was not the greatest step forward, especially after years of being a reliable utility bat in Tampa. The Brewers plan to start Margot, but several of the outfield options have more versatility and more recent success. Odds are he wriggles his way through, but is he anything close to where he was?
Cardinals: Phil Maton has bounced around recently, but enjoyed postseason success with Houston and New York. The Cardinals took a flier on him a couple days ago, they could use established bullpen guys. Not sure if he makes the team, but if he does he could be a decent piece still.
Diamondbacks: Josh Naylor just capped off a run of excellent seasons as an 1B/DH piece in Cleveland, cementing his status not only as a great power hitter but also a dangerous contact bat. The Guardians parting ways with him seems like a dumb move, as is putting him in Phoenix, where he fits right into the vacant 1B position that Christian Walker left. The D-Backs need guys like him, and if they seek to compete again this year I see Naylor factoring highly into things. Very satisfying to see Naylor find his full potential after his early days in San Diego scraping the surface of it.
Giants: Joey Lucchesi's comeback with the Mets was halted by the continued presence of injury luck. The Giants are seeing if he has anything in the tank. If anything he'll be a minor league depth option. Kinda sad to say he peaked with the 2018 Padres.
Guardians: Austin Hedges continues to be one of the most beloved defensive catchers in the game despite not doing a damned thing on defense. He will continue to platoon with Bo Naylor until Bo learns to hit more consistently.
Mariners: Andres Muñoz was an all-star last season, proved he could work the ninth as well as provide consistent relief, and is very high on the M's relief depth chart going into 2025. Of everyone here, Munoz might have the highest chance for exceptional output, despite probably not getting the credit if he does so.
Marlins: Cal Quantrill had a great start with the Rockies last year but fell off hard. The Marlins could give him a shot if enough of their starting options aren't ready for April, but Alcantara, Weathers and Cabrera rank ahead of him, and Max Meyer and Valente Bellozo factor heavily for rotation spots as well.
Mets: Luis Torrens was a backup catcher with the Mets last season, and thanks to Francisco Alvarez's injury looks to get playing time again this season. As a matter of fact, he might be the starting catcher going into the opener. As endearing as the Mariners fans were towards him in the early 2020s, the Mets fans could potentially welcome him even more.
Pirates: David Bednar has been one of the best relief pieces in Pittsburgh this decade. Last year he had a down season. Either he recovers what he had in the early part of the decade or the Bucs dump him and go with Holderman in the ninth.
Royals: Hunter Renfroe, after being on a different team every year for the past 5 years, has finally settled in Kansas City. He lacks the real pop he had in San Diego, but he's steady, reliable, and gets the job done. He looks to start this season in the outfield, at least until the Royals build up enough that he doesn't have to.
Twins: Chris Paddack is looking like a probable Opening Day rotation pick. The last few years he's gotten injured at some point, but last year was a relatively full picture of his skills, and while he hasn't touched his 2019 peak. Ty France, meanwhile, is coming off a weaker year after being the go-to 1B guy in Seattle for years. He looks to start at 1st in Minnesota, filling in for a gold glove campaign from Carlos Santana. The Twins have Jose Miranda ready to go if things don't work out though.
White Sox: Travis Jankowski won a World Series with the Rangers, and this is the thanks they give him? And the worrying detail is I'm not even sure if Janko will make the team out of camp for the White Sox.
No comments:
Post a Comment