Nolan Noncommittal

 

The regular season is less than a month away, and several of the last unanswered questions of the offseason are finally being wrapped up. Jose Quintana just signed with Milwaukee. Both Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks look like they'll be ready for April. All three Japanese pitchers in LA are headed for big years. And yet there's still a pretty big unknown looming as we head through March. The Cardinals are still going with Nolan Arenado, despite their frequent attempts to trade him to save cap space. Regardless of the deal that was supposed to happen with Boston [before Bregman was signed] or New York [which is allegedly still on the table], Arenado is still reporting in Jupiter, and still very much a part of the Cardinals' 2025 plans.

And yet there's still the threat that he won't be. People have continued to use the term 'audition start' for a lot of Arenado's Spring appearances thus far, and it's getting to the point where Arenado is not only aware of it, he's getting pretty tired of it. There's the slightest possibility that these starts may be him trying out for, well, the Cardinals' 2025 roster, and not the Yankees' roster or the Astros' roster or whatever the hell. And he's trying to convey this, while also aware that the Cardinals' ownership, as any Cardinals fan can tell you, are actively trying to rebuild this year, hence them also shopping Erick Fedde for a hot second. 

Now, Nolan Arenado, on paper, should have a good case for anyone to snap him up. He's one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, his prime seasons make him a likely Hall of Fame candidate, he'll cross 350 home runs this year while averaging 25 per season, and he's really only ever missed 15 or so games per season. But the last two seasons have seen dips in quality both at the plate and in the field, resulting in a very average year for Arenado in 2024. If he'd been a 5 WAR guy again last year he'd have already been traded, and possibly could have joined Goldy, another future Hall of Famer primed for a bounce back year, in New York already. Even at 34, Arenado is still elite, trustworthy and impressive. But I think that after the Donaldson thing, the Yankees are afraid to trade for a past-his-prime third baseman again. They're already taking a risk with Goldschmidt, they can't afford both corners to be post-peak guys. Not in a year where they're trying to replace Soto; 2014 had a similar plan and it didn't go well.

So far this spring, Arenado has been fine. He's hitting .214, with 3 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. Perfectly serviceable. Not elite. Not worth trading for. At this rate, maybe a midseason deal? Or maybe someone will swoop in this month anyway and take a chance. It could turn out fine, as he's still Nolan Arenado at the end of the day. But even in the search to finally remain on a true competitor, is Nolan Arenado really the right guy to rely upon in 2025?

Still, the Yanks may bite anyway. I think they've tried Stroman for Arenado straight up and that didn't fly. Maybe they retool it and surprise people. Or maybe somebody else surprises me.