I've been writing this blog for ten years now. I have very few constants. End of the year posts. Over trivializing the All Star Game. Promising to consistently have content during the offseason and failing.
But I like this one the best. Because writing an unofficial Hall of Fame ballot both fulfills my duty of over-trivializing the Baseball Hall of Fame AND making disastrous predictions/opinions.
Plus, the HOF ballot now is almost entirely made up of people I've followed since getting into the hobby, though a few are slightly before my time (my cut-off is 2007). So I have a lot of personal attachment to a lot of these guys...which I have to separate.
As usual, I'll go about writing this as if I've been appointed an actual ballot by the BBWAA, and am given the right to post my ballot online right before the results of the vote. The ballot only allows 10 names, so you'll get nine names, as I didn't feel anyone deserved that tenth spot. Also, don't expect to find any steroid abusers on here, as I don't approve of their exploits, no matter how Barry their Bonds is.
Here we go, here are my nine names, in alphabetical order:
Lance Berkman:
We are starting with the toughest call of the ten for me, which is kind of nice. Berkman was initially off my ballot, but eventually replaced a different Houston Astro on my ballot (Billy Wagner). The reason, however controversial, is that Billy Wagner really doesn't stand out as Hall of Fame caliber for me, as he's basically just a steady closer. Lance Berkman had more standout seasons than Wagner, and Berkman also had a bit more of a storied career. If we're going from a statistical standpoint, Billy Wagner's highest WAR was 3.8, while Berk's was 6.9. But also, Berkman was just a solid, dangerous power corner for a ten year period, being a rock on Houston's lineup in good and bad times, and even managing to have a comeback season in 2011, leading the Cardinals to a World Series. He had 100+ hits every year from 2000 to 2011, and topped 100 RBIs 6 times. He may have the flimsiest HOF case of the ten I'm discussing today, but he was a strong player for a strong team. Yes, Bagwell may have done his job a bit better, but for the sake of this ballot...he deserves a mention.
Team of Induction: Houston Astros
Odds of 2019 Induction: 13 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 15 to 1
Roy Halladay:
This is one of the ones where I have to filter out some of my own personal bias. Roy Halladay does happen to be one of my favorite pitchers, and I do own a Halladay Phils jersey, and I absolutely loved his material, not only for my team but also for the Jays. But...I will allow myself to let that aside just to focus on numbers. So...numerically, Roy Halladay is also a Hall of Famer. Halladay topped 200 strikeouts in a season five times, topped nineteen wins five times, pulled lower than 2.00 ERA six times, led the league in shutouts seven times, and topped a 7.0 WAR four times...and has two Cy Young awards, over 200 career wins, over 2000 career strikeouts, and threw two no-hitters during the 2010 season. The only thing that will prevent people from voting him in, and may hold him back this year, was the fact that his career was shortened due to injury, and was possibly two or three more amazing seasons (with Philly) from being a lock. But still, Halladay deserves to be included in the conversation, and may be one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation. And I'm very proud to have seen him play for my team.
Team of Induction: Toronto Blue Jays
Odds of 2019 Induction: 4 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 2 to 1
Todd Helton:
Like Berkman, this is another debatable call, but unlike Berkman, I can say with certainty that Todd Helton had a leadership position in Colorado for over a decade, and was a hero presence that nearly got the team to a World Championship. From 1998 to 2007, his batting average did not drop below 300, he never had fewer than 75 RBIs, and he never had fewer than 150 hits. That is one impressive ten year stretch. Like with Larry Walker, we should investigate the Colorado aspect, although even as a member of the visiting team he still had a .287 average. It's probably his later, more injury-prone years, that'll keep him from definite enshrinement, but as a pure offensive force he'll probably spend a few years on the ballot.
Team of Induction: Colorado Rockies
Odds of 2019 Induction: 10 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 20 to 1
Edgar Martinez:
How weird is it that a man who's been on the ballot for the past 10 years, and was basically being called dead on arrival around then, may be one of the locks for this year's vote reveal? And the reason for that is the campaigning for Edgar Martinez has been unprecedented and glorious. Mariners fans and baseball fans alike have been showing up and talking about how powerful Edgar was, calling him the greatest DH of all time, and...doing my job for me. Suffice to say, Edgar's case is now very clear, and since Harold Baines, a worse DH than he, has been inducted, his 2018 induction is all-but-inevitable. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, either.
Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners
Odds of 2019 Induction: 5 to 3
Odds of Eventual Induction: 7 to 5
Fred McGriff:
Unlike Edgar, this is a guy I've been campaigning for since he came on the ballot that...probably will not make the Hall of Fame this year. A successful bandwagon has not popped up for McGriff, simply because besides from his home runs, nothing else statistically stands out. He's still one of my favorites, so he stays on this ballot for one final time, but...I am gonna miss him next year. Who else am I gonna jam on here undeservingly?
Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves
Odds of 2019 Induction: 10,000 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 20 to 1
Mike Mussina:
For all the people who will be upset with the lack of Edgar Martinez on the ballot in 2020, never fear- there will be someone to campaign for, and if he doesn't get in this year, it will be Mike Mussina. He is the pitching version of Edgar, and may have the same size HOF case. Moose's Orioles numbers have been propelling the discussion, but it may just be his durability, or his consistency, or his status as a strikeout artist in an era ruled by them. Plus, unlike similar cases of Bert Blyleven, you can definitely consider Moose a staff ace, as he ruled the O's, and Yanks, rotations for two decades. Also, he came in the top 6 Cy Young voting in 9 of his 18 seasons, which is an even 50/50 ratio. He also has 270 wins, and would have been possibly 2 seasons away from reaching 300, which is something we can't really say for a lot of modern pitchers. I'm not sure if there's room for him this year, but I do think the campaigning will get him in within the next 3 years.
Team of Induction: Baltimore Orioles
Odds of 2019 Induction: 7 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 4 to 1
Mariano Rivera:
Do I even need to explain myself? No? Moving on.
Team of Induction: New York Yankees
Odds of 2019 Induction: The Absolute Most Even
Odds of Eventual Induction: Evener Than That, If You Can Believe It
Scott Rolen:
Look, of these nine names, five of them are people who've played for one of my teams. Let's just emphasize that I have a SLIGHT bias. BUT STILL...a lot of Scott Rolen's best output was with St. Louis and Cincinnati. He did some good stuff with Philly, but he didn't get to many playoff outings, or even a World Series, with those scrawny little Phils teams of the 2000s. And yes, a ROY award is fine, but Rolen's 2004 season was fantastic, and one of the deciding factors in the Cards' electric run in the playoffs that year. He's an 8-time Gold Glover, a 7-time All Star, and someone who was the 'better end of the deal' in trades for Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Glaus and Placido Polanco. Scott Rolen was a formidable talent of the 2000s, and although he may not get in for a bit, I think his case may grow exponentially this year.
Team of Induction: St. Louis Cardinals
Odds of 2019 Induction: 12 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 11 to 1
Omar Vizquel:
I stand firm in my belief that Vizquel is the single most important defensive player of his era, and a throwback to players like Luis Aparicio, back to a time when defense was almost as important as offense. Once again, it's going to be Omar's bat that separates him from most Hall of Famers, as while he is less than 200 away from 3000 hits, he never got higher than 100 RBIs, only made 3 All-Star teams, and despite the 11 Gold Gloves, belongs more to the 'Hall of Very Good' to a lot of people. Honestly, if we keep out Vizquel and continue to award great defensive catchers and closers who are good at mostly one thing, we're being contradictory. Mariano Rivera threw one pitch and he's a lock. Omar Vizquel was a master defender and sneaky little hitter, and he's only getting a little bit of traction for votes. It's very sad, and I may be trying for this case for the next 8 years.
Team of Induction: Cleveland Indians
Odds of 2019 Induction: 18 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 14 to 1
So, those are my picks. At the very least, Rivera, Edgar and Halladay will get in, but there's a chance for Mike Mussina. I'll be happy with however it goes, though.
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