I figured June would do something to level the playing field and allow for true storylines to emerge, and that's pretty much what happened. A lot of big things happened this month, and not all of them were pretty, especially for my sake.
Before we get into what happened this month, here's the 5 predictions I made in May:
1. One or more of the Yankees and the Phillies slow down a bit to give everyone else a chance. Well, the Yankees certainly did this, as I honestly figured they would. I don't think they're gonna fall apart to the extent they did last year, but they did their usual 'people get injured and the stars stop showing up' schtick, and thus they're no longer in 1st. The Phils have also had injury trouble, but because of how well built the roster is it hasn't affected them as much, and they still have a lead over Atlanta.
2. An intriguing return from the IL revitalizes a team. Really, the guy to put here is Royce Lewis. Since his return, the Twins have been absolutely electric, and his home run hitting has absolutely fueled that. Francisco Alvarez also definitely falls into this category. You could also put Max Scherzer into this category, even if the O's did give him a particularly warm welcome the other night.
3. A struggling team does something drastic and probably ill-advised. The Mets said 'hey, let's have Grimace throw out the first pitch' during an awful streak. And they've been amazing ever since.
4. An unknown player for a low-market team breaks big out of absolutely nowhere. Honestly this didn't really happen this month.
5. I'm going to two games this month. Something incredible happens at one of them. Uhh...other than a Bryce Harper home run that seemed to leave the stratosphere, not much.
And so here, in opposition to that, are 5 Things from June 2024 that No One Could Have Predicted:
1. Not only are the Orioles good, they can RAKE. This team hit 60 home runs this month. That is a lot. Anthony Santander is the key piece of the Orioles' power surge, as in June alone he's hit 13 home runs and 25 RBIs. It's not that people didn't think Santander was capable of this, but he's had a quiet few months beforehand, and he's one of those guys that is either destroying you with power or laying low. Between Santander, Gunnar Henderson, who has 26 home runs, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg, who have 12 and 13 homers respectively, and Adley Rutschman, who's hit 15, there's a lot of people who are looking at the prospect of a 25+ homer season. Not even mentioning Ryan O'Hearn and Cedric Mullins, who've also had cool power moments. This is a team that, moreso even than the Yankees, can spread their power numbers throughout the whole team and always have somebody who can outdo you. That's a really important factor as we head into the thick of things.
2. The NL Central becomes a fascinatingly competitive division. At the exact same time, in one division, you have the Cardinals blazing through a relatively simple schedule, the Cubs tanking, and the Pirates and Reds flirting with competitiveness. And with all of this happening at once, the NL Central standings, which looked pretty set in stone before, looked different practically every day, with four teams within a game of each other. And all of this while the Brewers held first, even as their lead begins to slip as June ends. It's a fascinating divisional race, one that'll likely get even more interesting next month.
3. The Cubs and Rangers completely fall apart. Two of the most competitive teams of the first two months just ran out of gas this month. The Cubs were just dipping under .500 as the month began, and now they're in last, and 6 games under, thanks to bullpen inefficiency, Kyle Hendricks' Jekyll-and-Hyde numbers, the opposing offenses figuring out Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele, and Javier Assad getting hurt. There's a lot of mediocrity at play there, with many hitters just performing the bare minimum, and even the bigger stars making entry-level snafus. The Rangers, meanwhile, now have a worse record than even the Cubs, and they're only in third. It's more mediocrity, but the starting pitching has given up a ton of runs, and without key pieces like Josh Jung and Evan Carter they don't have much to attack with. Pretty much the only hitter in this lineup with an average over .250 is Josh Smith, who wasn't even supposed to be here. Of the two, I think the Rangers have more to work with going forward, but they both have completely reassessed their plans for the season.
4. The Mets. Grimace threw out the first pitch, then they went 12-3. Nobody can believe how instantaneously this Mets team sprung to life. Some of it had to do with activating Francisco Alvarez, or bringing in Jose Iglesias and promoting David Peterson. But it did really feel like the flip of a switch. Now Lindor and Nimmo feel lively, Mark Vientos feels like a key player, Bader and Martinez are crucial power bats, and Alonso has 17 homers. So many friends of mine who are Mets fans feel so much more optimistic now, which is pretty incredible when you consider they're at .500.
5. Carlos Correa returns. I wrote Correa off as post-peak last month, and he made me regret it. In June alone, Correa hit .394 with 37 hits, 21 RBIs and 5 homers. This is the kind of stuff he'd do for the Astros all the time, and this is the first time he's really felt like himself since before he signed the new contract. His rise in power, as well as surges from Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, have brought the Twins back to 2nd place and given them legitimacy once more.
Meanwhile, we also have here 5 Things from June 2024 That Lots of People Could Have Predicted:
1. The Astros slowly creep back up the standings. Yeah, you knew it was coming, even if Verlander got hurt again. Something about a team with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker is extremely hard to keep down.
2. The Yankees hit a wall. This happens every year, around the same time of year. The guys that are working, like Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Giancarlo Stanton and Clarke Schmidt, skid to a halt or get injured, only a few hitters show up each game, the reinforcements come in shakily, and we get lapped in the standings. With the strength of the O's, at least we're not in 2nd for no reason, but it still hurts.
3. Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez battle for a batting title. These are two of the best contact hitters baseball has seen in a while. Arraez's Padres numbers have kept that team in 2nd. Kwan's contact numbers have strengthened an already-strong Guardians team, in addition to some surprising power numbers.
4. Losing Mookie Betts doesn't stop the Dodgers. All it means is Shohei Ohtani just pushes into overdrive and commands the MVP conversation, meaning he could go for the Frank Robinson feat this year without even being in full two-way mode. The Dodgers still have enough assets, like Teoscar Hernandez, Miguel Rojas, Tyler Glasnow and Will Smith, that they still feel like an underwhelming NL favorite.
5. Edwin Diaz does something stupid right when people are starting to like him again. Man, getting ejected for tack is soooo 2022, man.
And finally, 5 Bold Predictions for July 2024:
1. Something infuriating involving the All-Star Game
2. A manager loses his job.
3. Even 'Judge slowing down' still puts him on a scary pace in the home run race.
4. Bryan Cashman conveniently schedules nap time for 4:00 PM on deadline day, again.
5. I am infuriated by a team entering the race on deadline day who should be playing far more conservatively.
Well, at the very least it was a June where a lot happened. Hopefully July is a wee bit calmer for the teams I care about.
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