What's been odd about the struggles the Guardians' rotation has had thus far is that for the last ten years, this team has routinely been responsible for producing terrific pitching rotations. The team that made it to the World Series in 2016 did so on a rotation consisting of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin. Nearly all of them were unkillable that year. And from there, they'd bring up Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Tanner Bibee, and build some really strong rotations. But the turning point was in 2023, where there was a fracture between the preexisting arms, like Bieber, Civale and Cal Quantrill, and the new breed of hurlers led by Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. It got to a point last year where neither one could be fully relied upon, and it dissolved to a 'whoever works' gameplan, which at least got them to an ALCS.
And that's how we got here. Where homegrown pitchers Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, trade return Luis Ortiz, and free agent signing Ben Lively, have a combined 8-11 record, despite the rest of the team being 19-14. Emmanuel Clase is more inconsistent than ever, and even he's 4-0. The Guardians' starting rotation can no longer be the deciding factor in whether the team goes far or not. Now, the Guardians are still one of the best contact teams in the bigs, and lately the power numbers have been winning games, so outhitting the competition is still an option, and a viable one. But it's odd to see a rotation that's just sort of there rather than one that's engineered to stop everyone, like the Mariners or Dodgers' rotations.
The best starter the Guardians have right now is Ben Lively, which is a weird thing to say out loud. Lively was drafted by the Reds in 2013, was traded for Marlon Byrd and made his debut with the Phillies in 2017, where he went 4-7 in 15 starts. The rest of the decade would be fraught with blown opportunities and bit parts in triple-A spots. In 2019 he moves to Korea, gets himself right, then returns to the Reds on a minor league deal, and after enough strong starts for the Louisville Bats he reemerges, becoming a decent enough swingman turned starter finishing off the 2023 season. The Guardians signed him to a deal, and since then he's been extremely consistent. Last year he went 13-10 with a 3.81 ERA. This year he's been equally strong, with a 3.72 ERA and 25 Ks through 7 starts.
I think it's very helpful that somebody like Lively is succeeding in this rotation, because even if the prior versions of this rotation were on the same page, they lacked a decent veteran presence, especially with Shane Bieber going down every year. Last year they had Alex Cobb and Matt Boyd down the stretch, but right now the Guardians just kinda have Lively, at least until Bieber and Means are healthy, which...may be a bit. And while Bibee and Allen have lower ERAs, people like Spencer Schwellenbach, Brayan Bello and Reese Olson are proving that they could be doing a lot better.
The Guardians, at the very least, are on the way up again after a really upsetting stretch last week. Even in a season with lesser offerings from Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana, the fringe guys, like Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneemann and Kyle Manzardo, are getting a lot done. I was worried last year that these pieces would sort of wait around and not develop, and now they're building the team back. It's not perfect at the moment, but these Guardians teams have a habit of building slowly and striking quickly, and I reckon that'll happen again this year.
Coming Tomorrow- I found a rookie of his for 10 cents earlier this year. Probably the last time that's gonna happen..
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