Hey Nineteen

 

Here's the situation at the moment in the NL Central. The Cubs are firmly in first. The Pirates, now with a new manager, are firmly in last. And in between is a three-team mad dash, where all of the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals are entangled in a full stalemate. All three have a record of 19-19. Firmly at .500, with all in various different directions. The one that has the most to lose, though, is the Reds, who had 2nd to themselves until dropping 6 games since April 30th. They had enough of a head start, and now they've got to make sure a fleabitten-but-strong Brewers team and an inexplicably building Cardinals team don't lap them. 

You can already see the wheels threatening to come off, though. Nick Lodolo got off to an excellent start but caught some bad luck in his last couple appearances. Hunter Greene has been phenomenal but exited yesterday's start with a groin issue. Noelvi Marte and Austin Hays, two of the team's biggest hitters in April, just hit the IL. Elly's slowing, down, Steer and McLain can't hit .200, everything that looked promising even a week or so ago is now looking really rough.

Which is why it's been so refreshing to see Jose Trevino not only lock up a starting catching position in the wake of Tyler Stephenson's move to full time DH, but thrive and belong there. Trevi was a favorite in New York, and while he was more efficient than really explosive, he was capable of great moments and excellent defensive catching. Here he's just as reliable, and he's already hitting .288 with 9 RBIs, 3 homers and a 0.8 WAR. The Reds have so many people with high highs that can also just go cold for a while, so stocking up on really consistent, efficient pieces, like Trevi, Nick Martinez, Austin Wynns and Gavin Lux, did this team well in hindsight. The bullpen has been so successful because of the reliance on efficient, successful arms like Taylor Rogers, Tony Santillan, Emilio Pagan and Graham Ashcraft. Alexis Diaz had consistent moments, but at the end of the day, he is a Diaz brother, and he has a low basement.

The Reds really need to lean into that as we go ahead, because banking everything on high-strikeout guys or high-liability pitchers is gonna end the same way as before. The Reds do still have enough key choices filling rotation spots right now, and are ramping Andrew Abbott up to potentially take on more responsibility if Greene has to miss time, but they need to work this so that they're not on starter number 11 again, or on fill-in replacement infielder number 4. The Reds, like the Orioles honestly, have the pieces in place to compete, and need to get past whatever crap luck has been keeping them from doing so. 

Coming Tomorrow- The league is currently littered with former Padres prospects. You hear about some of the bigger ones, but there's one that even the Padres kind of forgot about that's turned into one of the best closers in baseball.