The last several years, the AL Central has been more competitive staying out of last than staying in first. Even in the years with an overwhelming favorite like the 2020 White Sox or the 2019 Twins, everyone else has sort of shrugged on by without making much of an effort. The 2022 season famously consisted of a showdown between two teams that kept tripping over their shoelaces.
And seeing this happen while the east and west divisions are both loaded with competitive teams is kind of fascinating. It's not that the AL Central is wholly terrible, it's just that the majority of the teams there are in downswing form. It's also not coincidental that all the money's on the east and west and the central teams are mostly lower-budget teams waiting to build something up.
I will say that things do look better for a majority of the teams in this division. The Tigers have a lot of more confident, composed pieces on their roster, and I think they'll genuinely compete this year. The Guardians and Twins will continue to chase first given their big pieces and emphasis on contact and excellent rotations. And while that normally would leave a definite outcome for the last two positions...it may not be that simple.
The Royals would thereby be pinned at fourth, and I really don't think they look like a team compared to do that. This season has been primed for even more of a breakout year for Bobby Witt, a rebound year for Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch, and the arrival of pieces like Nick Loftin who are just waiting for a breakout moment. I also see a more confident stocking of the roster in how people like Seth Lugo, Will Smith, Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson are being used. Finding some roster flexibility from within isn't completely working yet, let's see if we can stock this thing with trusted veterans and see if that works. It's still a not-too-flashy low budget contact strategy, but I see a lot in this team that could work, especially if some of the injury prone guys from 2023 [Pasquantino, Lynch, Garcia] can be reliable this year.
I do not see the Royals being a first place team this year, solely because they're a few OMG pieces away from that. I thought they were ready last year, and then Brady Singer turned out to not be as consistent as I thought. And look, on one hand, I really don't want to amount Brady Singer to one decent year around a few mediocre ones, but unless he figures this out in 2024, that might be what we're looking at. And if that's the case, and being that they're without Kris Bubic and now probably Michael Wacha for a bit, the Royals need to hope that a homegrown ace is coming relatively soon. Because it was supposed to be Singer, and now I'm not sure if it is anymore.
As for the Chicago White Sox, logic would dictate that they're a last place team this year. They have little to no pitching, their Opening Day starter is Garrett Crochet [and say what you will about Alex Wood getting Opening Day for the A's, but at least Alex Wood is known for starting games well], the rest of the rotation is just guys that didn't work in other markets and they're starting renters at major positions.
But...they still have Luis Robert. So unless they're really listless aside from him, you can't completely count them out.
The 2024 Sox looks like a lot of 'well, that's be interesting if it worked' type of guys. You know, if Benintendi actually performed to 2019-caliber, that'd be interesting. Or if Nicky Lopez, Paul DeJong and Dominic Fletcher can prove they can start admirably, that'd be interesting. Or if Michael Soroka or Erick Fedde are for real after all of that, it'd really be something. But there's not a lot, other than Robert, to really rest one's weight on. Even Yoan Moncada, who at one point was the can't-miss guy that would help lead the Sox to the playoffs, can't even be trusted when he's actually hitting well in Spring Training.
It's genuinely depressing, even with the knowledge that this is the first year of a new regime, and that they're moving on from Kenny Williams' meddling. Pedro Grifol may be a decent choice to lead this team through an era like this, though I don't think he'll stick around to see them compete. It's not like the Oli Marmol thing where the club likes him more than the players, fans or anyone else watching does. They're waiting and seeing with Grifol just like the rest of us, and I think they're relieved it's not LaRussa anymore.
The plan for the White Sox is just to let this current regime sort of fade off and see what young guys can inherit the team next. Meaning 2024 might be a slog, and it's not even certain that Robert will be there by the end of it. Still, it'll be interesting to see how exactly it rolls out them.
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