Wild Card Series' Day 1: Close and Not Close

 

Okay, let's just...temper ourselves, first of all. The Phillies aren't playing like a playoff team. They haven't since like August. They got in due to some luck, don't have much hitting energy left, never really did to begin with, and have the same issues, including bullpen troubles, as always. The Braves are the better team, the Phillies needed to find moments to best them in between their own troubles, and while they did...the decision to let Jhoan Duran face Michael Harris was the one that did them in. I think they were trying to do a Dave Roberts management thing, putting in the best pitcher rather than the most logical one. It's what Roberts does with starters in the postseason. Mattingly did it with the one good reliever he has, just plopping him down and hoping he does enough of the work to chill down the core. It worked for 1 and 2/3rds innings, and then it backfired.

Austin Riley's 3-run bomb shouldn't be diminished, as it's a huge moment to save a season that was in danger of falling off, nor should the offensive work from Ozzie Albies and Mike Yastrzemski. The truth of the matter is the Phils had Atlanta on the ropes, they made what they thought was the best decision, with their best reliever, and they lost the game because they thought they were better off with one more Duran batter than any other reliever, which would make sense had he not faced five already. If Bowlan goes in, I think there's still a chance we win that game.

It comes down to Cristopher Sanchez today. If for some reason he locks in and we tie the series...I still don't think we're taking it because the Braves are simply a better team. Yesterday at least proved we can move the needle a little if we're not busy getting in our own way.

I think it was fitting that the game between two also-rans without terrific records was a bullpen game. Unfortunately for the Astros, that already left them at a disadvantage, as their bullpen's been quite terrible this year, and that Bryan King was the first to flinch isn't shocking at all. The White Sox are capable of this sort of contact energy when the other guys aren't looking, and without a Lambert or a Brown to fall back on, the Astros were leveled and, frankly, human.

Also, this being a bullpen game may have fooled the Astros into a sense of security, because Hagen Smith is technically a reliever, but since he came up midyear the Sox have been slowly stretching out his innings and trusting him with more and more responsibility. The idea, I assume, is to let him start next year [something that will be welcome considering how many Sox guys may have overexerted themselves this year], and so this being an extended opener spot for Smith sort of turned into a preview of that. Smith went three innings, gave up 2 hits and no earned runs. Credit to Grant Taylor, Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin for the assist. It's wild that Jordan Hicks seemed to regain his mojo as the year went on, and is back to being a strong spot guy. 

Anyway, Sox are up 1-0, and are very close to doing what twenty earlier incarnations of the team could not [win a playoff series]. I will be rooting for them.

Anyway, uh...this one was nice, wasn't it? 

I'm being very careful because the Sox could absolutely come back, but...them landing in the playoffs after burning through the goodwill in 2 months and robbing themselves of Alex Cora, then coming back and going wild...that's a win in and of itself. That's a moral victory. Payton Tolle having a strong enough start on his own merits, that's a big win. Everything else was essentially as expected. The bullpen did not hold up, the lineup shuddered at the prospect of rising to the occasion, Roman Anthony's likely hurt again, and Brayan Bello's back to square one. 

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a highlight reel tonight. Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches and allowed 2 hits, a walk and ten strikeouts. George Lombard went 3 for 4 with 2 runs. Austin Wells went 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs. Spencer Jones had a big hit and scored 2 runs. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber were untouchable. And Ben Rice made up for the lack of Aaron Judge by hitting TWO big home runs, one to pad the lead and another in the eighth, a grandy, to make this a foregone conclusion. Rice has had a HUGE season, and continues to be a spark plug as a power bat. 

Fried vs. Gray next. Would love the Yanks to close this one out, but when have the Sox ever made it easy?

And finally...JEEEEEEZ.

I kinda figured the Padres would have the edge just for the sake of their momentum vs. the Cubs's, but my GOD. The Cubs barely showed up. Their choice for top starter, Matt Boyd, is in the midst of a recovery year and didn't hold down the Padres well at all, giving up home runs to Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, the marquee guys. The bullpen didn't do a heck of a lot better, and when you've gotta throw Assad and Civale out there instead of specialists, they're gonna make mistakes. Altogether the Cubs had three hits in this game. Only one was off of Michael King, who was absolutely electric, going 7 strong and striking out 8. The other two were off of returning hero Joe Musgrove, who did well enough for his return to the mound. Two of the hits were from Nico Hoerner, the other was from Seiya Suzuki, meaning PCA, Bregman, Swanson and Happ could not get a single thing done. 

The Yanks bodying the Sox behind Schlittler was something you may have predicted, but this absolute shellacking the Padres performed? Maybe the Dodgers were commanding so much of the narrative that nobody was really noticing the Padres get hot. And now they have the leverage, the home crowd and the pitching edge, with Nick Pivetta looking to seal the deal today against a down Kevin Gausman season. Can the Cubs respond? 

I'm thinking at least two series' end today. I'd love to have three, but that would imply the Astros are gonna lay down and die, and they really never do that when I want them to.

The Best of the Rest: 2026

 

On a day where all 30 teams are playing for the last time in, depending on how cynical you're feeling, six months or eighteen months, I'm somehow watching more football than baseball. Mostly because if I end up watching the Phillies game they'll just start to betray me. 

The thrilling part of today's goings-on, even two days away from a really fun playoff schematic, is that there were still two spots open, both due to historic collapses. The Phillies had a huge lead for that wild card spot, then just stopped winning and had to win today's to ensure a sixth seed. The Astros, while leading the AL West, refused to stay above .500, leading to today's stalemate with the Rangers, where one needed to win while the other lost in order for anything fun to happen [and nothing fun did happen]. 

It's a picture of a season where nothing was pinned down, even when it should be. The Orioles and Pirates, after being eliminated, had late swells that drastically changed divisional pictures. The Marlins were a very fun spoiler of a team despite ruining their own playoff chances. The Diamondbacks kept fighting until the very end, in a way where you could never count them out. Considering how many of these non-playoff teams just lay down and die in September, it was a nice change of pace.

This makes this year's Best of the Rest superlatives post a bit more fun, because in addition to the usual amount of cynicism, I actually have some good things to say about a few of these teams. As usual, these are superlatives for the teams that didn't make the playoffs, in the same vein as 'best dressed', 'class clown' and 'most improved'. This one was in flux til post. 

Most Likely To Succeed [According to the Sportswriters in January]: Seattle Mariners

Team That Peaked Too Early: St. Louis Cardinals

Team That Peaked Far Too Late: Pittsburgh Pirates

Best Squanderer of Hopes Their Fans Had in 2025: Toronto Blue Jays

Best Squanderer of Hopes Their Fans Had in May: Sacramento Athletics 

Best Pitching Staff for a Team That Didn't Make the Playoffs: Pittsburgh Pirates

Worst Pitching: Colorado Rockies, third year running

Most Willing to Settle: Minnesota Twins

Most Puzzling Use of Money: Washington Nationals

Most Depressing Team To Write About Every Two Weeks: Kansas City Royals

Team Who May Be Delighted to Know That There’s An Opening Shaped Like a Doorway Where You Could, In Theory, Exit the Revolving Door, But Only if You Wanted To: Baltimore Orioles

Most Comically-Timed Injuries: Detroit Tigers

Best Immediately-Distinguished Glimmer of Hope: Miami Marlins

Best Backfiring of 'Titanic Will Never Sink' Logic: New York Mets

Most Unwilling to Recapture the Lightning in the Bottle: Toronto Blue Jays

Most Anonymous September 28-Man Roster: San Francisco Giants

Best Straw Breaking the Camel's Back: Los Angeles Angels

Team That Has No Idea What It Wants: Cincinnati Reds

Biggest Anticlimax: Texas Rangers

Best Overall Team That Didn't Make the Playoffs: Arizona Diamondbacks

Least Likely to Make This List in 2027: Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates

That's our roundup of the other 18 teams. Now it's down to the other 12 to make this a satisfying conclusion to the season. No pressure. 

Brain Sku

 

Remember a week or so after Tarik Skubal made it to LA and he was only doing okay and people were worried the Dodgers gave Zyhir Hope away for nothing? I mean, all will be revealed when Skubal signs with somebody after the season, but...you don't get Tarik Skubal on your team because of the okay starts. So when the good starts happen, nobody's gotta be shocked. He's Tarik Skubal. He does this.

Sku in LA has been as successful as you might expect. In 9 starts, he's 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 60 Ks. This is exactly what he was doing in Detroit but with a much thinner ERA. He had some trouble for about a week and a half, got over it, got better and put in another excellent season, one the Dodgers are now reaping the benefits of. Skubal has been a very nice addition to the Dodgers' rotation, which now has Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Emmet Sheehan all working pretty well. The key to this team, once again, will be legging out starters as relief pieces, as Justin Wrobleski, Roki Sasaki, and I can only assume Eric Lauer if he's back this year, will be used in long relief and will strengthen the postseason bullpen...which, to be clear, is already very strong because Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer and Brock Stewart are all having great seasons and it won't be as hellish to call for a 'pen boost midgame. 

For the second year in a row, the Dodgers are entering the postseason as something other than the clear favorite. The Brewers will be the top seed, and though the Dodgers will also get a first round bye, they will have to work their way up to a prevailing spot. The Braves, Phillies, Cubs and Padres all want the opportunity to take them down, and the Padres have done it before. The Dodgers are very good this year, but have lesser performances from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith, which is...their core. They also are just now getting production out of Kyle Tucker, but who knows how long that'll last. The pieces of this team are excellent, and could potentially get them a third straight ring, but...the strings are showing. It's a more human version of this team, with parts that can go wrong [Edwin Diaz, the catching for a month, Enrique Hernandez FOR NOW..] and guys who can, and have, not show up for big moments. Thanks to a really easy schedule, the Dodgers are 15-5 in September, and it's worth asking...would they still have been 15-5 last year given this schedule? They are better than bad teams, even depleted, heading into October...but are they gonna be better than good teams when it counts? No one's quite sure yet.

I think Ohtani's gonna be the big question mark. A lot has been made of Aaron Judge missing Yankee playoff games, but Judge is notoriously bad in October. Ohtani's got 11 postseason homers and 24 postseason RBIs, and that's just in two seasons. If he's got everything straightened out, he'll be that postseason hero again, which sounds like it'll be pretty easy to do, but...if he's not all the way there in October and struggles...that may say all it needs to. The Dodgers are going to fight like hell to ensure that nothing can stop them, but as we've seen in 2019, 2022 and 2023, even if they're extremely good, there could end up being someone better when they don't expect it. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays claimed him off waivers before the season and he's been a major contributor to their astonishing regular season run.

Somebody Has to Win

 
It is...the last week of the season. The thread lines are getting wrapped up before the playoffs start. Everybody is jockeying for position. The Rays already have a first round bye, the NL race is just coming down to wild card seeding. Everything is coming together.

The one issue is that not only do we not have an AL West champion yet, but neither team is above .500. So...if either the Rangers or Astros could stop not wanting it for a moment, we could actually figure out what the story of this division will be.

At the moment, the story of the AL West in 2026 has just been not committing. The Mariners were primed to win out this year, and they continuously refused to put anything together. The A's had a big push early on but completely fell apart once the tentpole hitters got hurt. The Rangers were technically next best but they kept frigging losing. They remained determined, refusing to deal at the deadline despite nearly giving Jacob deGrom to the Braves, and then they roared back in September with the return of some needed pieces. And yet...they're still under .500. They had a leg up on the Astros a moment ago and now they're tied again at 1st. The Astros, meanwhile, have bubbled under, grabbed 1st for a bit but haven't had it commandingly arguably, and don't want to let a postseason opportunity slip by for a second consecutive year [man imagine like...not making the playoffs for a decade]. 

So what happens now? Well...somebody is going to need to show up. Either the division winner will be a momentum team and slay some people despite the record, or it will be a cut and dry in and out appearance during wild card week. Either way, it needs to be earned.

The Rangers have become a very scrappy, hard to keep down sort of team, which is what happens when Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran play crucial roles. Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Brandon Nimmo make up a really nice core which has kept the team from completely sinking under recent losses. The successor for Marcus Semien has arrived almost immediately, and it is Justin Foscue and his contact work. And then you've got the return of Nathan Eovaldi, utilized as a long relief guy with perks. Eovaldi's had a down year after his strong 2025, which is kind of expected, but he's still got 11 wins and 147 Ks. Between Evo, deGrom and Gore, they're not exactly down on strikeout artists, and now that Cody Bradford's back it's even better. I think from a pitching standpoint they're better suited for October, as they also have Jacob Latz, Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander standing by. It's not as deep as the 2023 team, but they could surprise some people.

And then you have the Astros, who are dangerous enough to still be a factor. Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena and now Yainer Diaz have been very reliable at the plate. Alvy's obviously looking for an MVP, but quietly Paredes is somehow just as good right now? He's got 23 homers, 90 RBIs and an .800 OPS, and has gotten even better as the year's gone on. This is another all-timer year for Josh Hader in the ninth, a strong season for both Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski, and a surprise comeback from Peter Lambert. The Astros teams are just very well built, can sustain bad seasons and injuries, and can never be counted out. I owe it to the strength of the organization and the depth of the roster. The issue is, and this ties into why they're not a runaway 1st place team, you can tell this is a depleted version of this team. Big pieces have moved on, big homegrown players are in other markets, and the reinforcements haven't completely taken over yet. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Ethan Pecko, Miguel Ullola and Lucas Spence are here, but they're not running away with anything, at least not in the way that some of the Rangers rookies are.

It's still a toss up, and the fact that the Mets have been fighting back against the Rangers and the Astros have had no trouble with the Mariners proves it's not a sensible path at all. It could come down to the wire, and the winner may still not be a .500 team. I think, just from a logic standpoint, that the Astros will probably win out just because they've had more season leverage...but I still kind of want the Rangers to work an upset at the eleventh hour. The Astros thrive with a late rally, but the Rangers have proven that they can find momentum even before the Astros do.

Whoever wins will definitely earn it. Where they go from there is up to them.

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know...the most important guy moved at the deadline and all...

98 to Beat

 

Now only could the Brewers set a new season wins record this year, which they've already pretty much done, but they could be a 100-game winner in an era where winning 100 games is so rare. And they could do it with a smaller market, farm system based team that's only getting better. I know they're in Philly this week and fundamentally I still want them to lose, but...considering that they're also my pie-in-the-sky World Series winner, I just want good things to keep happening to this team.

The way I've figured out that this is the best lineup in baseball is that even the guys who switch in and out still make it the best. David Hamilton is a glorified utility man who swoops in and covers 2nd and 3rd, and he's really good on defense and good in a pinch offensively, in addition to leading the team in stolen bases with 28. Luis Lara was brought in as an auxiliary outfield guy, to back up Frelick, and he's been wonderful, hitting .250 with 24 RBIs in 57 games, plus some amazing outfield catches. Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers are essentially sharing 1st base and both are wonderful, with Vaughn hitting .300 and leaning on his contact skills while Bauers leads the team in homers and has a .397 OBP. 

And Joey Ortiz was essentially made an infield swing once Cooper Pratt came up, and he's parlayed that into a starting 3rd base job thanks to some elevated batting numbers, including a .267 average, 9 homers and 46 RBIs. Ortiz is usually the ninth batter but he makes himself known, and he's a lot more dangerous than the usual caliber of guys batting ninth. And that's not even mentioning the fact that Gary Sanchez, who only catches against lefties, has 11 homers and 36 RBIs. They've got it all worked out. Chourio, Turang, Bauers, Mitchell and Contreras are a mighty backbone of this team, Pratt and Lara are both 21 and feel like they belong, and Made, Williams, Pena and Fischer haven't even gotten here yet. 

I put the bullpen in a similar category as the lineup, because it's very multifaceted. You'd think it was as simple as Megill and Uribe, but Chad Patrick and Aaron Ashby are long men that could start but are better utilized in relief, and they both have 9+ wins. D.L. Hall finally works as a setup man. Jojo Romero isn't Cardinals good but he's a handy guy to have around. Grant Anderson's a good piece too. It all fits together really well, and supplants an already-strong rotation combo of Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser, who I assume's getting the third spot as Drohan and Harrison have fallen off. 

There's so much depth, so much truly working, and so many areas that aren't letting up, that I still think these guys have the best World Series case of anyone. The Dodgers are gonna try for it, and they have the legs, but the Brewers may have enough to keep them down, and potentially the rest of the NL. Whoever ends up beating these guys will need to do so with everything they have, because the Brewers truly have everything right now.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been looking at playoff situations for over a decade. He's staring down the barrel of another as we speak. 

Comin' Up From Behind

 

Second year in a row the Guardians have hung back for the race and sprung forward for the division in the last month. They've gotten extremely good at this. Just waiting patiently for another team to fall apart and staying consistent, with a lower budget and lower stakes. They got the injuries out of the way, got the blown saves out of their system, and now the best version of this team has the division, is painstakingly close to a first round bye, and might be a sleeper favorite this postseason. 

The reality of the postseason picture is that the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, the three best teams in the league are all in the same corner of the bracket because of how the seeding works. Meaning the other three teams, inferior as they are, will have their own part of the map, and will square off to see who gets to be the underdog in the ALCS. The Guardians have a spot in this, and it's looking like the other two will be whoever wins the AL West [currently the Rangers, at .500] and whoever takes the final AL Wild Card spot [looking like the White Sox at the moment]. That's three okay teams, at best good, who will be looking to play one of those three AL East titans for a World Series spot. It's gonna be a game of momentum. Whichever of these teams gets the most momentum could go all the way. And if any of these teams...know how to ride momentum...it is the Cleveland Guardians. Because that's how they managed to get a division title, potentially, even after nearly losing their way in July.

The Guardians are the kind of team where, if something snaps off, they make an even sturdier fix. The catching situation wasn't working, so they added Patrick Bailey and that's been a real success. Kyle Manzardo still can't really hit at the MLB level, so they got Nathaniel Lowe, who's a classic power 1st baseman who can plug in anywhere. Chase DeLauter kept getting hurt, so Jo Adell became outfield security, and he's been fantastic, with 6 homers and 31 RBIs in 42 games. The fans love him in Cleveland, as I knew they would, and he could be a burgeoning star for the Guardians, arguably more than he was for the Angels. Plus, Angel Martinez is hitting his second wind, and could get 60 RBIs before the week's out, in addition to the strong rookie campaign from Angel Genao and the walk-off theatrics of Brayan Rocchio. This is a way more efficient version of this team than we started out with, and the hitting does feel like a layered variety of people who can step up. Bazzana, Ramirez, Kwan, De Lauter and Adell are all capable of being the hero, as are the smaller guys. And even though nobody's finishing the season with 20 homers, the contact work and the base-running, all the fine details of the game, have been excellent. 

And then on top of that, if the postseason rotation is Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Tanner Bibee, with the occasional assist from Foster Griffin and Joey Cantillo...that's better than what a lot of other teams will throw out there. Better than the White Sox, surely. And who knows how the Rangers' rotation will do, or the Astros'? I think Williams is a genuinely dangerous pitcher with some definite velocity pros. I think Messick is so hard to hit and will be a postseason threat again. And I think Bibee's better than his numbers would have you believe. So that's a pretty good formation, especially with a little more rest.

The way it's looking right now, the Guardians may have lucked into the most prime playoff position they've had in years. They just need to keep it. They need to stay ahead of the White Sox, and be strong enough to take down whoever wins that wild card bracket. And they need to keep doing what they've been doing all year, finding away and holding onto whatever momentum they can. 

Coming Tomorrow- The past few years he's been the Brewers' secret weapon, always coming alive midyear, even as the 9 man. 

Better to be Steady Than Not

 

People are going to be discussing and dissecting exactly what went wrong with this Mets team for years probably. It killed the goodwill of the 2024 run, soured the friendship of the two top players, chased away two of the savviest trade acquisitions in a while and made competition even less of a possibility going forward. The decision to let Pete Alonso walk and replace him with Jorge Polanco is one of the dumbest ones in recent memory, and the fact that they actually found a working 1st base option in Jared Young only for the best pitcher on the team to step on his head and give him a concussion is just a terrific sign of cosmic irony. 

The issue, much like the contracts the 2012 Marlins took on, or the ones the 2013 Indians took on, or the ones the 2015 Padres took on, was that there needed to be a harmony between the preexisting core and the entering personnel. If there's barely a core to begin with, the contracts won't do anything. If there's too much of a core, the contracts will clash. And in this case, there was a core that was already becoming incompatible, and adding these new contracts did not help.

And so, the best players on this Mets team were the ones who remained steady, fundamentally, while everything else was tumultuous and indistinct. Juan Soto had a decent enough season but missed time. Francisco Lindor similarly was out for a bit and did what he could when he returned but it wasn't much. The core of this team were the guys that either were too young to give into the bullshit or just too consistent to care. Luis Torrens is a perfect example. Career system catcher, does what he can wherever he goes. Has become a nice piece with the Mets, everything Tomas Nido was supposed to be. Torrens was one of the best players on the Mets this year, he was excellent defensively, and he had 9 homers and 40 RBIs in 88 games. He came in, did his job, and didn't start shit. With so many people who couldn't even do that, it was very welcome.

I also think Nolan McLean, Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing all impressed this season because they were just trying to prove themselves, and weren't too high on their own egos. McLean could have coasted on his own resume after a strong WBC run, but he instead put in the work and despite a higher ERA, left with a nice full sophomore year, with a 3.18 ERA, 11 wins and 189 Ks. Zac Thornton also falls into that category, he made the most of the call-up and had a 3.40 ERA in 14 games. Jonah Tong's slowly figuring himself out as well. And Benge and Ewing became the backbone of this team by using the frenzy around the big guns distract the media from their early struggles, and by the time people were paying attention they were excellent stories. Benge hit .275 this year with 19 homers, 61 RBIs and 22 steals. Ewing hit 10 homers, 40 RBIs and stole 24 bases. Those two are the future, and they're very much ahead of the pack, which is wild to say about two guys under 24. 

There's a lot of money baked into this team's success, and it's the guys who aren't overpaid, aren't overexposed and aren't under pressure who are doing the most. That should be an important piece of information to carry into 2027.

Coming Tonight: He was fine in LA but never really hit the heights he was supposed to. Somehow he's getting closer in Cleveland. 

Whatever Gets You There

 

Connor Norby's trajectory is fascinating. He's brought up by the Orioles in 2024 as an infield contact bat, is traded to Miami for Trevor Rogers and becomes a corner infield power bat, dilutes himself thanks to injuries, hands in a very weak 2026 campaign in Miami and gets himself traded to Denver for Victor Vodnik, a trade where I'm still not entirely sure who was selling and who was buying, and then suddenly solves the Rockies' second base problem with a positive month and a half of contact hitting. The fact that this man did not work in Baltimore or Miami yet somehow can work with the Rockies, a team that either rewards contact hitting or buries it, is astounding. I think the Rox are gonna go with Norby at 2nd after 2026, because they seem to have gotten him to work. 

And yet if the O's hadn't traded him, likely to make room for Jackson Holliday, he'd be vying for that all-important third base spot with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Blaze Alexander and Coby Mayo. And uh...he'd be losing, because CES has already become a fan favorite in Baltimore on account of his power abilities, Alexander had a .300 season despite injuries slowing him down, and Coby Mayo is hitting .315 against lefties with 16 of his 24 home runs and a 1.097 OPS. Mayo was one of the people Norby lost playing time to, and now we're finally seeing why, because if this guy can learn to hit like that against righties then the O's might be in business. 

It just shows how wild the O's talent farm has been in the last few years, seeing as they were buyers, and now they've been sellers the last two years, so they've given away talent to teams like the Brewers and Marlins, and now they've received talent from teams like the Red Sox, Nationals, Twins, Rays and Mariners. So far this half they've seen a Nationals outfield farmhand gets some starts, a Mariners relief project become one of the best relievers on the team, and a handful of new prospects become organizational diamonds. All while the guy they traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers for justified the deal with another strong, if inferior to 2025, season on the mound.

The Rockies, meanwhile, are trying to do what they can with 'what the hell' deals like the Norby one. Already, they've seen Jake McCarthy and Mickey Moniak, two guys that organizations gave up on, become standouts for them. They've also seen a guy they got from the Yankees' farm system for practically nothing go from an also-ran to the starting first baseman with a relatively high season. Is this 'we'll take anybody and make 'em great' mentality owing to Paul DePodesta's regime being in full swing? The reclamation projects used to be 'uhhh Edouard Julien needs a job' or 'we can try Austin Gomber', and now it's 'Troy Johnston's an insane contact hitter that gets on base and we can totally DH him' and 'why not have Tomoyuki Sugano out there every 5 days slowing people down' or 'I think we finally can get Adael Amador hitting at the MLB level.' This year was bad for Colorado, but I feel like you're seeing things come around. Especially if Goodman, Rumfield, Karros, Carrigg, McCarthy, Norby and Veen are all in it for the long run. 

The moral is that eventually we get to where we're supposed to be, even if we take a weird path to get there. I think Connor Norby's in position to be the best he's ever been in Denver, and in turn it's made Coby Mayo a big force in Baltimore. In time it all smooths itself out.

Coming Tomorrow- For everything he's gone through in his first 10 or so years in the bigs, to become the only steady part of the most tumultuous team in baseball this year certainly is an accomplishment. 

Block Arte

 Okay. So it's become clear that, as bad as the Angels have been this year, and in general under Arte Moreno, they could potentially be better next year. I don't know if Zach Neto or Reid Detmers are gonna get dealt after the season, I don't know if they're really gonna commit to a deeper rebuild, but...now that competent people are in charge, this team's bound to do something successful.

It's not that they didn't spend money in the Moreno era, they just spent money and the guys didn't play worth any of it. Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Anthony Rendon, C.J. Wilson, Justin Upton, Jered Weaver, they all took large paydays and then no longer had an incentive to do well for the Angels. Shohei Ohtani was the outlier, he didn't get the memo and kept playing like a champ every year til the contract wore out. But these teams, even if they could get big free agents, could never go all the way because they were never built to. The overhead in those big pieces could not spread to the depth of the team, and so it was 'why is this team with these two all-timers not winning?'. Well because that's all they have.

This year, of course, was similar. Mike Trout actually had a halfway decent, fuller season, playing in 140+ games, hitting .241 with 20 homers and 53 RBIs. This is not peak Trout, but it's better than he's been in years. This team also had Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Wade Meckler and Oswald Peraza as lineup supplanters who had hero moments of their own. Neto's season, while not QUITE star making, was pretty excellent, with 26 homers and 74 RBIs, some power numbers a lot of people didn't really know he had. This is also a season where Reid Detmers struck out 204, Walbert Urena had a 2.74 ERA as a rookie, Jose Soriano had a blistering first half, and basically every other pitcher was sort of there too. The pitching was where the lack of depth killed this team, because you can't just keep throwing Ryan Johnson, Jack Kochanowicz and Grayson Rodriguez out there, all with very high ERAs, and say you're doing everything you can. That's when you get Caden Dana or Sam Aldegheri to come in and help, but they didn't want to do that at all this year.

So it was just a painful wait for Yusei Kikuchi to come back, because despite the injuries, there's someone who can actually make a start worthwhile. He's been alright since he got back, the occasional messy start but a lot more low-scoring, dominant affairs. I don't think he's Jays good anymore but he's doing the trick for the moment, which will do until Urena can properly helm this rotation. Whatever they try next year, they NEED to have a better working rotation model, because if it's 2 guys who are really good and 3 guys who can't keep runs down, you have to have a better plan of action or else it'll become clear you're just riding the season out.

I echo the cautious optimism for the Angels' new regime. Hopefully they get this team back to the postseason and erase the worries of this era. And at the very least, if they go 3-3 in this last stretch they avoid losing 100 games for the first time in the franchise's history. Wouldn't that be nice? They play the A's this week, those should be easier wins, right??

Coming Tonight: Never would have thought a trade to Denver would revitalize this guy's career but here we are.

Geno Commitment

 

When Geno left the Reds, he was a replacement power bat with most of his extra edge sanded off and a lot of issues that had piled up. He left, joined the Mariners, Diamondbacks and Mariners again and became a great hitter again. So when he came back to the Reds on a one-year deal, one of two things was gonna happen. Either he'd have another strong year and bring the Reds to October...or he wanted to play somewhere he enjoyed and was calming back down for his age-34 season. The latter happened, and nobody should be especially shocked.

It's still a decent enough year for Geno, with 24 homers and 69 RBIs, but he's a .210 hitter again, he's replacement level again and his consistency and accuracy are gone. He was also a limper centerpiece of a much more sporadic Reds team, diluted by the lack of success from T.J. Friedl, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Matt McLain, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Noelvi Marte and Spencer Steer, who were supposed to be the core of the team going forward. Like it definitely feels like all the failsafes sort of sputtered out this year. Rhett Lowder was finally healthy and he wasn't very good at all, going 6-11 with a 5.80 ERA. Abbott, Lodolo and Brady Singer all have WHIPs over 1.450. Brandon Williamson just got back and he's still not back to where he was. Ke'Bryan Hayes still cannot hit, and neither can Matt McLain. Blake Dunn was finally getting to some great MLB-level material but then he got hurt. The next stage, guys like Hector Rodriguez, Juan Brito and Carlos Jorge, is being filtered in, but at this rate it's mostly setting the stage for the *next* rebuild.

Because, let's be honest, the Reds are probably gonna crumple and toss a little after this season. Elly's gonna want to be traded, cause the Reds don't want to extend him. Singer, Pagan, Stephenson, Suarez, Burke and Friedl are all probably leaving. Who knows what shape Hunter Greene will be in when he's back. Maybe they try and shop Abbott, Marte and Steer as well. The guys who are definitely sticking around are Lodolo, Stewart, Greene, Hayes, Trevino and Chase Burns, and that's all very good. But...beyond that, what's nailed down? Not much. Getting Ozzie Cabrera, for a steal, will help short-term, but is this Reds team really back to waiting for the rebuild, after it felt like THIS rebuild would be the productive one?

It's frustrating. The Reds fans have been getting frustrated by teams like this for 30 years, making the playoffs but getting walloped, bringing up THE guy but losing him. At the very least Sal Stewart is looking like he'll be the next marquee guy for them, and he might win a Rookie of the Year. But...I don't know if Elly's gonna come back, and I don't know if the rotation's gonna look as good next year. So this, a fifth place finish with definite stars, might be as good as it looks for a while somehow. At least Geno got a victory lap I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- Every time I have to set up a post about this guy I make the same Lisa Loeb joke, and I will never know when the last time I get to make that joke will be, so I might as well keep making it. 

Broken Down the Middle

 

I did not think the Royals' 2026 season was going to end like this. Matt Quantraro might lose his job, Jac Caglianone is hobbling off the field, Salvador Perez has nothing left but 72 RBIs, Michael Massey and Carter Jensen are the only people still hitting, Vinnie Pasquantino's not the answer anymore, and Bobby Witt is on the heels of his first okay season since coming up. A miserable fifth place finish for a team that could have still theoretically competed this year. What a shock. 

I think what killed it was all the injuries. Cole Ragans, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Carlos Estevez, Stephen Kolek and Jonathan India missed a large chunk of this season. This was very much the season of the bench guys stepping up, and that alone couldn't really account for much. Nick Lofton, Tyler Tolbert and John Rave are good players having good seasons, but I still think about the fact that it's happening because so many people got hurt. Loftin might be a major figure for the Royals going forward in the same way that Whit Merrifield was. Rave is basically a better Kyle Isbel, and probably has more going for him than Isaac Collins. Tolbert's best bet might be bench work. I think ideally the Royals should build a version of this team that's sturdy enough to not go to shit the second people start dropping. Cause when you're left with Isaac Collins, Salvy Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, it may not be the best version of the team.

I give Noah Cameron a lot of credit for dialing in when things looked bleak. Cameron for the first half was a 5 ERA guy with some rotten luck and barely any run support, and suddenly around the 24th of July, things clicked, and since then he's had a 1.64 ERA with 57 Ks, a 4-0 record and none of the struggles that plagued him earlier on. This run includes a complete game shutout against the Angels, another 1-hit stint against the Twins with 8 strong innings of shutout ball, and four overall appearances without allowing any runs. This is the Noah Cameron that made himself known from the call-up last year, and with the core of the rotation aging, I sincerely hope this is the guy who can step up this year and take the reins of things. 

Not a hell of a lot to do this year for the Royals except the novelty factor. Anthony Gose has a 0.00 ERA in 10 appearances, and did you hear this guy used to be an outfielder. Craig Kimbrel is here, probably in his last season, and look at him fail to make any saves. This could be Salvy Perez's last season, except it probably won't be because I don't think he'll think he's done yet, except he could! Who knows? Bobby Witt Jr.'s hitting .276 and only has 18 home runs but for this Royals team that's still pretty impressive. It's kind of a mess honestly.

The infuriating thing is that even healthy next year, I still don't know if they're close to competing as is. And the core's getting old already. It's getting late early here, and who knows what the next iteration of the Royals will look like given this specific one.

Coming Tonight: He could have signed with the team that nearly got him to a World Series, but he wanted to go home. This should have been your first clue of what was about to happen. 

One 5 Year Plan After Another

 

From the moment the Nationals decided they were selling, they insisted that it was all going to be for the right reason. The rebuild would happen, the future would repopulate the team, and it'd all be worth it. Five years later, the Nats are still a fourth place team, the primary goal will be convincing their star shortstop to stick around, and they're likely still a couple more years away from really competing thanks to a gutted rotation and the worst bullpen in baseball. 

I think about the deal that brought Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to L.A. in 2021, and how it yielded a package of stars that was supposed to reinvigorate the system. And yes, it brought over Keibert Ruiz, who has been THE catcher ever since. This season he's finally providing decent hitting numbers again, batting .288 with 10 homers and 47 RBIs, not exactly his 2023-2024 production but definitely more on target. Ruiz is here til the end of the decade. But aside from Ruiz, that deal didn't really amount to much for Washington. Josiah Gray, the other big piece in that deal, had one all-star season as a Nats ace, then got hurt in early 2024, missed all of 2025, was supposed to start the season as a rotation piece and got hurt again, and just now made his debut as a long reliever. Gerardo Carillo also failed to meet expectations, and made his debut this year for Arizona. So yes, you get an everyday catcher with team longevity, but little else.

I think about some of those other deadline deals from 2021, and there's really not a ton that happened afterwards. The Yan Gomes/Josh Harrison A's deal got them, at most, Drew Millas, who's been a third string catcher for them. The Jon Lester deal got them Lane Thomas, which would later give them Jose Tena, who hasn't really performed for this team at all. The Kyle Schwarber deal got them nothing. The Brad Hand deal got them Riley Adams, another third string catcher. The Daniel Hudson deal got them Mason Thompson, who was counterproductive for them. The fact that a year after the trade deadline season that was supposed to bring the Nats back, they still needed the Soto deal to further replenish the pot...that says a lot. The goal was getting rid of people, not especially repopulating, which is why only Ruiz really, of that bunch, has had staying power. At least the Soto deal got them C.J. Abrams and James Wood, the peak of their core, as well as MacKenzie Gore, which got them Abimelec Ortiz, who's been really nice as a late call-up [plus 4 other guys that could be winners]. So the fact that this one 2022 deal was arguably so much more productive than like 8 2021 deals...it's telling. 

The current, burgeoning regime is the result of calculated development. Abrams, Wood, Daylen Lile, Nasim Nunez, Cade Cavalli, Andrew Alvarez and, ultimately, Keibert Ruiz have finally given this team an organizational identity after years of searching for one. Thus extending Cavalli is a fantastic idea, as after that injury-logged early era if he'd only gotten like 2 seasons to pitch for this team, it'd have been tragic. I also think Ortiz, Harry Ford and Yohandy Morales all have promise, and could all keep moving this already bombastic offense forward. I also think Jorbit Vivas is a really nifty in-between piece that could keep the team depth strong in the coming years. 

The Nats will hopefully be better next year, or at least be able to leg it out for longer. And then who knows what we'll be saying about their rebuilding period.

Coming Tomorrow- Talk about how a second half can radically change the perception of an entire season, even if it's played for a last place Royals team.

Lukes Like We Didn't Make It

 

Here's a fun statistic about the Blue Jays' 2026 season. In the trade for Kevin Gausman, the Jays received Brett Bateman, who moved right into center field, hit .333 in 34 games, with 11 RBIs, an .828 OPS, and 46 hits. He currently has a 1.7 WAR in that time. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who played 138 games this year and had a full year in the new contract to keep hitting in Toronto after the World Series run, is hitting .262 with 9 home runs, 56 RBIs and a .694 OPS. 

You should not be able to get a guy who's stuck in Iowa, put him on your team for 2 months and get him to start playing better than Vlad Jr. has all season. That's not the point of any of this. The point is the Vlad to drag the sled, not for Brett Bateman to go from Iowa to dragging the sled while Vlad just rides in it. That's not how you win championships. 

Despite that late rally and the continued gestation in the playoff picture, this was a big shrug of a follow-up from the 'team of uncommon men' in Toronto, mostly because most of the uncommon men didn't really show up. Addison Barger was hurt all year, Myles Straw backpedaled and is once again a subpar defensive sub, Davis Schneider's a .150 hitter, Tyler Heineman got dropped for a Buffalo catcher, Andres Gimenez bobbed around the replacement level, Ernie Clement stopped hitting after the ASG, and...I mean, Nathan Lukes is still hitting. He's 31 and down from the peak, but he's hitting .274 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs in 117 games. This is still a bench tier performance being made to start but he's doing a lot better than most of the actual Jays starters are. At the very least, this team has Kazuma Okamoto, hitting 33 homers and 88 RBIs and doing a great deal of the work for the lineup despite hitting .235, and this team has a second half Alejandro Kirk performance [.280, 10 homers, 41 RBIs and a .777 OPs in 72 games] that made the first half injury sort of worth it. But the depth and variety of 2025 was gone this year. No hiding that. Not with Josh Smith, not with Charles McAdoo, not with anything. 

I am intrigued how this team will rebound next year, because they will have Trey Yesavage healthy again, they'll have Jose Berrios healthy again, they'll have a healthy Spencer Arrighetti, they'll possibly have Bowden Francis back, they could theoretically stretch out Ricky Tiedemann, and of course they'll have Cease and Soriano. That's already firmer ground, and more depth, than the 'we're out of options but at least we have 41-year-old Max Scherzer every fifth day' thing from this year. If they can build a better lineup behind that, of people who actually rise to the occasion, they can avoid the anticlimax of this season. If not...Vlad signing back here might be one of the missed opportunities of this era of the game.

Coming Tonight: Five years ago, he came to Washington as they rebuilt. Now they're rebuilding again...and he's kinda still here.

Skeleton Crew

 

On March 25th of this year, in San Francisco, the San Francisco Giants hosted the New York Yankees to begin the regular season. It was a time of promise, though it was clear that the Giants probably weren't going to compete much this year, and the Yanks' battery of them would soon confirm this [a 7-0 win]. It's very weird to look back at this game because...only two of the Opening Day starting nine are still active on this team by the end of the season. 

It's literally just Logan Webb and Jung Hoo Lee. Everyone else is either playing elsewhere [Luis Arraez, Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey], or hurt [Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt, Harrison Bader]. It's down to just Jung Hoo Lee in this lineup, and just Webb and Landon Roupp in this rotation. And everyone else is...either a roster-hanger-onner just taking advantage of the playing time or an absolute scrub filling a space. That's where we are with the Giants in September. They're not gonna finish with the worst record in baseball, but they may finish as the worst team left. Because what team has a chance with an active roster like this?

Above replacement level, all the team has left right now is Lee, the rookies Drew Gilbert and Bryce Eldridge, and newcomer Jonah Cox, a minor league favorite who was thrust into the centerfield role and has become an unsung hero, hitting .294 with 13 RBIs and 13 steals in 53 games. Cox is a sneaky little contact guy who just gets by you, and has been very helpful as the team's lost more and more strength. I think Cox probably will have a role in the team going forward, and a Gilbert-Cox-Lee outfield doesn't seem like the worst idea ever. 

It's the other fill-ins who are making things really dire, cause nothing else is too exciting. Drew Cavanaugh's the starting catcher, he's a .235 hitter with no real pop. Christian Koss is starting at first, he's not as good as he was last year. Turner Hill's been getting starts, he's got slightly more pop but he's not well rounded. Osleivis Basabe's getting playing time and for all the smoke around him in the minor's he's giving nothing. Nate Furman, Grant McCray and Scott Bandura are all getting shots. It really does feel like a triple-A lineup. I can't think of anybody in the league that could be outhit by this bunch. 

At least pitching-wise they've got Anthony Molina and Cesar Perdomo up and working. Molina's been surprisingly nice in a starting role, he's 3-1 with a 3.91 ERA with 23 Ks in 5 appearances. Perdomo had an excellent first start and has come down to earth a bit. Webb and Roupp have been kinda shaky lately [and Webb is officially hurt again], so it's nice that the kids are helping out. The bullpen isn't terrific though, as most of THEM are hurt too. So, again, it's whoever's available. And that's not very fun.

Really not much else for the Giants to do at this point but finish things up. I feel bad that the injuries screwed them up so much, because they could have bobbed along, but the bottom really fell out. Onto 2027. Hopefully.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many in 2025, one of a small few in 2026, keeping the dream alive in Toronto.

99 to Beat

 

Here's where we're at with the A's, which I wasn't thinking would be a factor this year. There's 9 games left. The A's have 92 losses. If they go 2-7, which is honestly a doable enough venture for this team, they can avoid finishing this season as a 100-loss team [in a season where the closest thing to a 100-win team we have now needs to go 5-4 to get to that mark]. The A's lost 100 games in 2022 and 2023, including that pathetic 2023 season where they only won 50 games. This season, they were without their biggest stars for the majority of the year, and as such they're in danger of being a 100-loss team. I think they have what it takes to avoid that, but...these being the 2026 A's, you can't be sure.

Earlier today, the A's got completely annihilated by the Rays in Tampa. You'd think this would be a decent homecoming for Jeffrey Springs, but the former Ray was completely beaten down, giving up 6 runs in 3.1 innings. Springs very clearly has never recovered from the injury wear and tear he's gained since his breakout run in Tampa, and, along with Luis Severino, continues to be a concerning free agency decision from this administration. The only run the A's could muster was a solo shot from Lawrence Butler, who again has caught steam late but not nearly as crucially as usual. Everything else was a ton of Rays runs that could not be contained.

Aside from Springs, the A's rotation right now is an array of 'I guess he'll do'. Jacob Lopez is the last actual competent starter standing, and even he's got a 5 ERA, despite 6 wins and 107 Ks. In the absence of J.T. Ginn, Gage Jump and Luis Severino, guys like Jack Perkins and Brady Basso are getting thrown out there to essentially do long relief to start games, and it isn't really working. The season's already a wash, so I get the reluctance to actually make a commanding decision, but even a couple years ago the A's had Joe Boyle and Joey Estes to try in September. Now, neither of them were long standing options, but they worked then. What the hell do the A's have now? Basically nothing. 

I guess the lineup is trying its best. It's down to bench guys like Donovan Walton and Alika Williams to do the hard work since Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom and Rooker are all hurt. Langeliers is back but his production pace has gone way down. Same with Gelof's, though at least this is a fuller, more confident season from the guy whose job was in jeopardy going into the season. Butler's last two months have at least given his stats a bit more mustard, he now has 17 homers and 59 RBIs, that's not bad. The general direction of this team as it stands might be best described as 'limp', but they keep trying.

To start next week, the Angels will be in town, so that'll be fun. Two teams trying to avoid losing 100 games squaring off in a minor league stadium. That should get a full house. It deserves one.

Coming Tomorrow- In a similarly vacant lineup, a rookie favorite tries to make the most of his extended playing time. 

Put the Tarps Back On

 

It's the sort of thing where you forget that at one point, the Cardinals were 10 games over .500, electric and commanding the fanbase. The 'tarps off' thing was this year. Tons of fans taking off their shirts in outfield seats and beckoning on walk-offs and rallies. That was this season. It feels like it was years ago, because the Cardinals haven't really been too electric in the second half. Maybe a decent week or two in late July and early August, but they evened out once it became clear how perfunctory the rotation was. 

Which is why it feels like such a shame that Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, both of whom have 100+ RBIs, didn't lead this team further. Burleson's been good as a contact bat before, but this was a new high, with a .285 average, an .824 OPS, 23 homers and 111 RBIs, which still leads the league. Walker's home run totals fell a bit after the derby, but he still has 28, 100 RBIs and 160 hits. This was, at long last, a breakout season for Jordan Walker, after so many years where he could have done something and didn't seem to want to. And beyond that, it was the arrival of J.J. Wetherholt, who's excellent at 2nd and has a contact bat that's just picking up steam. I think that core gets them to the playoffs. 

And it shouldn't discount Nathan Church, who made the team as an also-ran and eventually usurped Victor Scott as the starting center fielder. Church is a great contact guy, he's got 50 RBIs and 10 homers, and he's handy in a pinch. Considering that the cavalcade of homegrown Cardinals outfielders has run its course [Nootbaar's done, Carlson and Bader and O'Neill and Edman are all elsewhere], Church is a nice trade-off, an unsung bench guy who can be the hero when he needs to be. Not sure what legs he has on this roster, or if he can do it again next year, but he did what he needed to this year and definitely has a place.

What excites me is the fact that the Cardinals now feel the need to move beyond this year's rotation mediocrity, where Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante were really all they had. Quinn Matthews is up, and through 7 starts he has a 3.62 ERA, 26 Ks and a 0.7 WAR, which already puts him on the team leaderboard. Matthews is expected to be a nice rotation piece, and I like the sound of that. Both Brycen Mautz and Cooper Hjerpe are fundamentally starters, and are only working relief spots because there isn't room. I think there should be room. Those two have been excellent in minor league play and need to be stretched out. Similarly, despite the 37 saves, we might need to see if anyone other than Riley O'Brien can close games next year. The blows are adding up. 

The Cardinals are good enough, and have been good enough, that they're never really expected to land in last, and next year could be the year where their 'legit' stretch lasts more than a month or so. I just feel like once it gets going we're gonna forget this period where the Cardinals didn't really compete. I've been kind of enjoying this honestly, not to really bag on the team or anything. They made like 4 straight NLCSs and now it's just been nice not worrying about that all the time. But perhaps soon...

Coming Tonight: With all the injuries and struggles in the A's rotation, he's pretty much all they've got left right now.

Five Enter, One Remains

 

I really do think the Tigers' rotation press conference prior to the season has the same energy as Aaron Rodgers sprinting out carrying the American flag and immediately tearing his achilles. The moment looks grand, the image looks cinematic, and then the reality hits. Seeing Justin Verlander, Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize standing together, going 'we're gonna be the Tigers' rotation this year', looks nice, and sounds nice. But then the rubber hits the road and you realize just how far the image was from how things really work. 

Let's go over how that rotation panned out. Tarik Skubal had great numbers, was traded to the Dodgers and is looking to compete like he never has before. Casey Mize did well enough despite an injury, got traded to the Padres and is still trying to regain his leverage. Jack Flaherty's season stunk of fatigue, and he's missed time since July recovering. Justin Verlander pitched 1 inning, gave up 5 earned runs, complained of discomfort and has been hurt ever since. The goal is to get him back for one last start in Detroit, which is more of a tribute measure than anything given the season's lost at this point, but considering how he held up in San Francisco last year, everyone was expecting so much more.

So the only person left from that press conference in March who's still on this team is Framber Valdez. And he's decided to deliver his most mediocre season to date, after a legendary run with Houston. He's got a 4 ERA, a 10-10 record, 121 Ks and a 1.363 WHIP. Without the Astros' offense behind him, he has been leveled. He still goes deep into games but the runs have piled up, and the spark has been diluted. Every so often you will get a classic Valdez quality start, but this was not the ideal first year for this contract.

The good news is that a halfway decent starting rotation sprouted out from where the other four spots lay vacant. Keider Montero and Troy Melton have had star making performances this year, with 8 and 9 wins apiece, ERAs in the mid-3s and 2.50 range, and the dominance that, ideally, Skubal and Mize would have kept giving. Jackson Jobe's healthy again, and he's got a 3.89 ERA and 34 Ks in 34 innings. Hopefully he'll be a lot stronger next year. Drew Anderson has been starting recently, and he's honestly not bad, with a 2.36 ERA and 43 Ks in 10 starts. Maybe not as immediately lauded as other returns from the eastern hemisphere this year [mostly thinking of Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin], but he's played a strong role in this rotation legging things out.

Beyond that, the Tigers evened out as a lower-tier team this year without a comfy rotation behind them, and without a really strong division of contact hitters. You're at least seeing Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Max Clark and Riley Greene cementing themselves for the next stage, and all four of those guys did what they needed to this year. If a decent enough team can form around them and lead to less dissonance, and less waiting for 5 different people to start hitting, then the Tigers can muddle out of the basement. If not...the 2024 run may have been a fluke after all.

Coming Tomorrow- An under-the-radar, contact-friendly outfielder on a team where two different guys have over 100 RBIs.

Marlin of Error

 

It's as simple as this: the Marlins, at one point, had a shot of crashing the postseason. Then they kept losing games and literally every other marginal competitor passed them. The Pirates and Cardinals probably aren't making the playoffs either, but they passed them. So now the Marlins are 8-5 in September, back below .500, nothing else to do this season really but be thankful they weren't a last place team. 

I can say with certainty that we know more about this team than we did before the season began. There were a lot of beginnings of threads last season that we weren't sure were gonna lead to anything in 2026, but Max Meyer, Javier Sanoja, Heriberto Hernandez, Tyler Phillips, Janson Junk and Jakob Marsee all have crucial roles on this team as it evolves. Sanoja was once just a decent enough super-ute who hit well only against the Phils. Now he's the everyday 3rd baseman, is a .300 hitter and has 63 RBIs, which isn't bad at all. Last year, Heriberto Hernandez was an okay hitter and a defensive liability, but now he's a much better power hitter, looking at the team's sole 25-homer year, and is better in left. Max Meyer, despite finishing with only half a season's worth of innings, proved he could carry the big games, and Sandy Alcantara proved he wasn't washed up. The biggest development was directing Tyler Phillips back towards a starting role, where he actually did a pretty decent job, with a 4.26 ERA, 5 wins and 63 Ks in 82 innings. I think he might be a good starting option going forward, as will Janson Junk, who had a 4.50 ERA in 111 innings. 

Now...will Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards continue to be the anchors? There I'm not sure. Lopez had an incredible season this year, with a 5.8 ERA, a league-leading 180 hits, a .300 average and 69 RBIs, plus 30 steals to boot. He excelled at nearly every facet of the game, and at 27 it could either be his apex season or the start of a strong run. I don't know if he's going to be THE guy for this team, but he's definitely helped exponentially, and some more seasons of this caliber would be the next step. Edwards is still a good piece but the fact that the Rays knew to give him up tells you he may never be THE guy. Maybe Marsee will do more heavy lifting next year, even if his second half was way better than his first. I think the real issue is whether or not Kyle Stowers is ever gonna touch his 2025 season [itself injury-shortened]. That's kind of why the Orioles gave up, they saw the floor and not the ceiling. I think if the Marlins are at all concerned they'll make a move this offseason but I think he's a bounce-back candidate, just like I think Owen Caissie just needs to grow into things.

The thing that will make me feel a lot better about the long term success of this team is proof of a working rotation model. Because ideally, if given the year, the combination of Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk and Tyler Phillips may not be enough to get things going. Alcantara's probably leaving in free agency, that's fine I guess. I'd love if there was another young starting option. It was supposed to be Robby Snelling, that did not pan out. There's gotta be somebody immediately next. Is it Karson Milbrandt after he figures out triple-A? Or Thomas White once he can stay healthy? One of those guys, or both, could swap in and help things greatly. Maybe a cheap free agent, someone who can eat innings? There's gotta be somebody. 

The Marlins are closer to competing than you might expect. They just need to build on this season and not run from what worked.

Coming Tonight: This was his first season for a team that didn't have a probable shot at the postseason. It wasn't that great.