Coups in the Making?

 

This week, the two Western divisions came very close to flipping entirely. The Mariners were chasing the Astros in the AL, while the Padres briefly eclipsed the Dodgers in the NL. One of these has since been resolved, as the Padres were batted back down during their series with the Dodgers, but the Astros spent the weekend getting absolutely flambeed by the Orioles while the Mariners really only needed to just keep on target to not waste it. As I'm writing this, we're still waiting to see how the little league classic goes, and if it brings the Mariners within a half-game.

All I can say is that for a season that is succeeding now that the theme has become 'rejecting inevitability', it's a development I'd prefer. This season has seen big downswings for teams that were considered league superpowers heading into the season, like the Yankees, Astros, Mets, Braves and now the Dodgers. With one or two exceptions, the majority of the teams that competed heavily last year have struggled to deliver comparable follow-ups, citing atrophy, injuries or whatever the Yankees' excuse is this week.  You're seeing exciting stories like the rise of the Blue Jays, the Brewers' incredible run, and wild card cases from the Reds, Red Sox, and possibly even the Marlins. That thrills me more than 'well it's the Dodgers again'.

So this Dodgers-Padres series was a bit of a bummer. At this point the Dodgers do have leverage, and were able to outdo even heroes like Manny Machado and Dylan Cease this weekend. The Padres' main issue right now is their rotation's back half. Beyond Pivetta, Cortes and Cease, there's a lot of unsteady ground. Yu Darvish is worth some Ks but he's a bit shakier than his heyday for the Padres.  Cease, for the record, barely got through 3 innings against the Dodgers, as that lineup had him for breakfast. Despite 171 Ks, Cease is 5-11 with a 4.61 ERA. And the current strategy without King is to throw some pen guys out there and let Randy Vazquez do long relief rather than simply starting him. This is what happens when you give your two top starting prospects away for a catcher.

Fermin, by the way, has been an excellent upgrade behind the plate, and Ramon Laureano has had some nice games himself, already hitting .321 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs. Ryan O'Hearn, meanwhile, has run out of the magic that made him a star in Baltimore. He's only cracked 1 homer and 4 RBIs in 12 games. Not a great look at all. Furthermore, Mason Miller only has 1 start. I did not expect someone like Nestor Cortes or Freddy Fermin to be more pivotal to this team's success than Miller or O'Hearn. You really can never tell.

The Mariners have had slightly better luck with their additions. As has been well-documented, Eugenio Suarez is taking a bit more time than expected to get to Arizona levels of production, hitting .143 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs since joining the team. But Josh Naylor has been miles better, hitting .275 with 4 homers, 10 RBIs and 11 steals in 19 games. He has an .826 OPS already, higher than any Mariner who doesn't famously have a big ass. Naylor, as predicted, was exactly what this team needed, and has fit right into the lineup dynamic. Meanwhile, Raleigh's still rolling, with 46 homers and 100 RBIs, Randy and Julio are both headed towards 25 homer years [and 25 steal years] with aspirations of 30-30 years, and Cole Young seems to be a fixture in this lineup despite all that. 

And even with all the dysfunction they had earlier in the year, the Mariners' lineup is rolling again. Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert have put together great seasons, and George Kirby has been quickly catching up thanks to some excellent late-summer starts. This team also has a lot of really strong bullpen threats, and Caleb Ferguson's just the latest one. I genuinely think the Mariners are better put-together than the Astros, and have more to succeed with. They've struggled slightly against the Mets, but they still have the leverage.

Of these two, I think it's more likely to see a Mariners coup than a Padres one, but nothing's off the table. 

Coming Tomorrow- Another team that pulled an insane coup in the AL East, and became a league superpower. This guy was out of the league last year and now he's their secret weapon.

My Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2025

 It's odd talking about this specific trade deadline, because it doesn't SEEM like a lot of huge pieces came off the board, but they really did. This was a year without many BIG stars changing hands, maybe one or two [in deals that, to be frank, did not make my list], but a lot of the big deals concerned relief pitchers and utility guys. This was a year where Jose Caballero and Willi Castro getting dealt were both big deals, and it was warranted rather than 'this is all we have to talk about'. It honestly speaks to the quality of the relief pitching in this deadline, as it wasn't like 'who's gonna get this 29 year old having a fluke year?' or anything, like there were a lot of big relievers and closers getting dealt, and it all pretty much made sense.

And yes, we got through the deadline without Luis Robert, Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, Jacob deGrom, Dylan Cease or even Paul Skenes getting traded. Yet it all seemed satisfying and not anticlimactic. I guess I'd call it a win, and not because of how both my teams did.

So, as is custom, I'm gonna rank my top 10 trade deadlines of this year. There'll be another post for the honorable mentions I still wanted to talk about, and another still about the ones where the GM's actions frankly puzzled me.

But let's get into it with a deal that honestly, by the end of the year, might be too lowly-ranked.

#10: Ke'Bryan Hayes to the Reds, Taylor Rogers to the Pirates [and eventually the Cubs], fellow CIN prospect to the Pirates.

The Reds filled a lot of smaller holes this deadline, but their biggest hole was at third base. They have tried Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jeimer Candelario, Santiago Espinal and Garrett Hampson at third this season. None of them worked. So why not bring in a guy who can definitely play third base. Sneakily, Ke'Bryan Hayes has been having a nice year at the corner, and he continues to be one of the best defensive third basemen in the game. Now, granted, he's not *hitting*, but you never know when he'll go on a tear. I just think that Hayes was the corner stability the Reds needed, and even if he doesn't hit, he'll be a pretty nice piece of this Reds team as they head towards a potential playoff run. 

#9: Merrill Kelly to the Rangers, 3 prospects to the Diamondbacks

I've ranked this one so lowly because I honestly don't think the Rangers needed rotation help, especially considering that before they went on the streak they were gonna deal deGrom anyway. But...this still gives one of the best starters in the league to a rotation that already has deGrom, Eovaldi and Jack Leiter in it. That's honestly pretty scary to me. This will depend on whether or not the Rangers are as good as their July has been. Because they have the pieces in place, and only now are they starting to act like they're supposed to. I think there's a chance they keep rolling, but I also know how inconsistent the Rangers have been this year. Either way Kelly will help, and it's kind of wild to see the Rangers bring on a guy who squared off against them in the 2023 World Series.

#8: Ryan McMahon to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Rockies

As far as a Cashman pull goes, it may not seem like much. Because of the Yankees' reluctance to trade some of its most prized prospects [Spencer Jones, George Lombard, Jasson Dominguez honestly], a lot of the bigger deadline weapons we were after didn't end up happening. Initially when the McMahon deal happened it felt like a poor consolation for Eugenio Suarez. But honestly, just from what I've seen from McMahon so far, I think we made the right decision. We needed a sure thing at third base, and McMahon is not only that everyday corner guy, but his contact hitting has revitalized the team. Already he's hitting .350 as a Yankee with 8 hits and 4 RBIs. He doesn't need to be the star, but he's steady, consistent and really impressive. Like Chisholm last year, McMahon just seems like just the kind of guy we need right now.

#7: Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano to the Padres, 5 prospects to the Orioles

Very smart move by A.J. Preller. There's another move I'll talk about tomorrow that was even sneakier in filling a need, but the Padres needed an outfield upgrade and one more thumper for the lineup, and they got two perfect pieces. Ryan O'Hearn in a lineup that already has Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill is dangerous. He will fit right in there. And Laureano going to this outfield is a blessing because he doesn't have to start every day. His defense makes him an upgrade over a lot of their other OF options, and he's a good bench bat when needed. I think Gavin Sheets should be getting more starts out there, but Laureano gives them flexibility. The trouble I had with him in Baltimore is that he was playing a starring role when he really should have been a backup, but that's more the fault of the team this year. 

Speaking of Orioles outfielders..

#6: Cedric Mullins to the Mets, 3 prospects to the Orioles

Going into this season, even before we knew the O's would have a drop-off, it was clear that Cedric Mullins was likely on the way out. He'd been there for eight seasons, came into his own right when the team needed him and was a marquee star as they built their youth movement. He'd done enough. The Mets now have an outfield of Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Cedric Mullins. That's pretty excellent in my opinion. Mullins is still versatile, still quick, and still powerful. He now gets to help a team get to October. I see no real drawbacks here, though because Mullins is having a comparative down year I'm not sure if that'll carry over.

#5: Josh Naylor to the Mariners, 2 prospects to the D-Backs

The Mariners, even in the midst of a division battle that's getting much more competitive, made some really nice moves to boost the lethality of their lineup. Naylor at the corner in T-Mobile Park is definitely a step up. Even in a year that's not quite to the quality of his Cleveland run, Naylor is still an excellent contact hitter, hitting .292 with 11 homers and 59 RBIs. In Seattle he vastly improves the 1st base situation and adds another surefire bat to a lineup that, even before this weekend, ranked as one of the most troublesome ones in the AL. If October is on the Mariners' mind this year, which it is, they've also procured an excellent postseason performer. 

#4: Jhoan Duran to the Phillies, Mick Abel and another prospect to the Twins

Finally, the Phillies get a legit answer in the ninth after every other closing option fell apart. And yes, I am aware of how often we use the trade deadline to get a surefire closer that then struggles to save games once he gets here. It happened with Ian Kennedy, it happened with David Robertson, it happened with Carlos Estevez. However, Jhoan Duran is under 30. He's also still in his prime, in the midst of a great season, and is scarily dominant. He is the missing link for a bullpen that's honestly coming into its own. Though, to be fair, if our bullpen IS, in fact, cursed, then you'll file this away with the others. I just have hope that he'll be the one, though. 

#3: David Bednar to the Yankees, 3 prospects to the Pirates

Like the Phillies, the Yankees also went through some aggravation to find a ninth inning man this year. Both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver have been spottier in save situations this year, and it's clear that both should be in setup roles. All that remained was a better, more reliable closer. And since June I'd say, David Bednar has been one of the most reliable closers in baseball. I only attribute his struggles to moments leading up to and following an injury- everything else has been fantastic. Pittsburgh fans loved him, and hopefully he'll appeal to Yankee fans as well. I just think he's a pretty reliable bet in the ninth, though I do worry he'll go back to his April luck in a bigger stadium. 

#2: Mason Miller and J.P. Sears to the Padres, Leo de Vries and three other prospects to the Athletics

This one is so high because I did not think the A's were going to deal Mason Miller, as he's a young, controllable phenom that I thought they'd keep until Vegas. But evidently the GM got an offer from A.J. Preller that he couldn't refuse, and I think Leo de Vries was part of that, despite the fact that Jacob Wilson also exists. Mason Miller is a terrific closer and unbelievable hard-throwing pitcher, but putting him in a minor league stadium did not do him justice. He gives the Padres an even safer bet in the ninth than Robert Suarez, and he could be closing there for years. And in a deadline season where the Padres still dealt some excess arms [Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek got dealt, more on that tomorrow], J.P. Sears is a very smart late-rotation addition that not only adds yet another ex-Yankee to this rotation [alongside Vazquez and King], but puts a consistent, reliable starter alongside Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease. I'd put that against the Dodgers' circus of arm strains anyday.

But of course, as wild as it was to see a trade that actually got Mason Miller out of Sacramento, it could not take the top spot. The top spot had to go to a fit so perfect that I could have sworn I'd seen it before...

#1: Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners, Tyler Locklear and 2 prospects to the Diamondbacks

Look, some things are just clear. We know Geno in Seattle works, it worked a couple years ago. We know Geno's having an excellent season, and right at the trade he became the D-Backs' WAR leader this season. We know he can hit home runs and for contact. We know he's still in his prime. And we know he and Josh Naylor were on the same wavelength. Putting him back into this lineup makes it clear that the Mariners have the best lineup in the division now. They have more assets than Houston, more clear power hitters than Texas, and better pitching security than either. And yes, the Astros had a similar reunion today, and you're probably wondering why it's not at this spot. Without getting fully into a rant I'll have later on...Eugenio Suarez has a space meant for him. He doesn't have to squeeze into someone else's for a month or so. 

For now, the Mariners just bulked up their lineup with someone they know works in Seattle, and they just made a major stake towards the East title. It's gonna make the rest of the season very interesting, that's for sure.

Tomorrow I'll talk about some of the trades that didn't make this list, and why.

Together We Once Wore Grey

 

I was thinking about the 2018 Padres the other day. There's the joke that men think about the Roman Empire constantly, but I can bet you nobody thinks about the 2018 Padres. There are names on that team that just shouldn't be spoken. Christian Villanueva. Joey Lucchesi. Carlos Asuaje. They had a guy play in all 162, but he only hit .250 and most of you probably don't remember who even did that. It was dire. Positively dire. 

And yet a youth movement was beginning to brew. The people that don't remember those dreary-ass end of the 2010s Padres teams remember that there were a ton of prospects that popped up around then and looked to take over, and...most of them were dealt before the Seidler runs. People like Nick Margevicius, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Ty France  and Luis Urias. They were even more prominent in 2019, when the biggest prize of the farm system, Fernando Tatis Jr., took to the majors like a fish to water and, despite an injury costing him a chunk of the season, almost singlehandedly revitalizing the team. 

And now you look at the Padres and they're almost unrecognizable from that scrappy, homegrown 2019 squad. First of all they took back the brown and gold, that was a great move heading into 2020, I'm glad Machado and Tatis only had one seeing wearing those unmemorable navy and greys. But, as I alluded to, pretty much every youth piece the Padres had in that 2018-19 era got dealt. It's really just Tatis and Adrian Morejon, a guy who's evaded trades by just not being healthy til now, left. It's rare for a team to sell almost the entirety of the farm system and still make it deep into the playoffs, but the Padres have done this, and are still competitors.

Tatis, though, still feels like an odd figure in the development of this team. This will be his sixth season, and his age 26 season, and while he already has a cumulative 21.7 WAR, the stardom that Tatis was promised still seems slightly distant. It's not that he hasn't performed well, but he's never gone a season without missing at least some time, he was out for the Padres' 2022 NLCS run, and he was never exactly exonerated after testing positive for PEDs. Moving Tatis to the outfield in 2023 did boost his star power, and his power numbers last year were welcome, but he hasn't hit .300 since his rookie season, he's hovering around the .276 zone as a career average, and the injury last season robbed him of finally making an impact. He's still one of the best in the league, yeah, but I don't know if Tatis has delivered anything as powerful as his pre-suspension material. 

I do think Tatis will have a good season, but I get the clearest Juan Gonzalez vibes from him. Talented, capable of high highs, but the drawbacks are also unmistakably there. 

Meanwhile, let's have a look at where some of the other late 2010s Padres prospects have ended up, and if they're in any way comparable to Tatis right now.

A's: Luis Urias had a couple of years as an infield starter with the Brewers, then when that didn't pan out he bounced around as an extra piece. With Sacramento, he has a chance to be a depth infielder, and if his bat shows up the A's would greatly appreciate another power piece.

Blue Jays: Eric Lauer, a couple years removed from an injury, is still kicking around the league. He was decent enough in an appearance for the Jays. No clue if they have room for him though. They definitely don't have any in the rotation. 

Brewers: Manuel Margot's 2024 with Minnesota was not the greatest step forward, especially after years of being a reliable utility bat in Tampa. The Brewers plan to start Margot, but several of the outfield options have more versatility and more recent success. Odds are he wriggles his way through, but is he anything close to where he was?

Cardinals: Phil Maton has bounced around recently, but enjoyed postseason success with Houston and New York. The Cardinals took a flier on him a couple days ago, they could use established bullpen guys. Not sure if he makes the team, but if he does he could be a decent piece still. 

Diamondbacks: Josh Naylor just capped off a run of excellent seasons as an 1B/DH piece in Cleveland, cementing his status not only as a great power hitter but also a dangerous contact bat. The Guardians parting ways with him seems like a dumb move, as is putting him in Phoenix, where he fits right into the vacant 1B position that Christian Walker left. The D-Backs need guys like him, and if they seek to compete again this year I see Naylor factoring highly into things. Very satisfying to see Naylor find his full potential after his early days in San Diego scraping the surface of it.

Giants: Joey Lucchesi's comeback with the Mets was halted by the continued presence of injury luck. The Giants are seeing if he has anything in the tank. If anything he'll be a minor league depth option. Kinda sad to say he peaked with the 2018 Padres.

Guardians: Austin Hedges continues to be one of the most beloved defensive catchers in the game despite not doing a damned thing on defense. He will continue to platoon with Bo Naylor until Bo learns to hit more consistently. 

Mariners: Andres Muñoz was an all-star last season, proved he could work the ninth as well as provide consistent relief, and is very high on the M's relief depth chart going into 2025. Of everyone here, Munoz might have the highest chance for exceptional output, despite probably not getting the credit if he does so.

Marlins: Cal Quantrill had a great start with the Rockies last year but fell off hard. The Marlins could give him a shot if enough of their starting options aren't ready for April, but Alcantara, Weathers and Cabrera rank ahead of him, and Max Meyer and Valente Bellozo factor heavily for rotation spots as well. 

Mets: Luis Torrens was a backup catcher with the Mets last season, and thanks to Francisco Alvarez's injury looks to get playing time again this season. As a matter of fact, he might be the starting catcher going into the opener. As endearing as the Mariners fans were towards him in the early 2020s, the Mets fans could potentially welcome him even more. 

Pirates: David Bednar has been one of the best relief pieces in Pittsburgh this decade. Last year he had a down season. Either he recovers what he had in the early part of the decade or the Bucs dump him and go with Holderman in the ninth. 

Royals: Hunter Renfroe, after being on a different team every year for the past 5 years, has finally settled in Kansas City. He lacks the real pop he had in San Diego, but he's steady, reliable, and gets the job done. He looks to start this season in the outfield, at least until the Royals build up enough that he doesn't have to.

Twins: Chris Paddack is looking like a probable Opening Day rotation pick. The last few years he's gotten injured at some point, but last year was a relatively full picture of his skills, and while he hasn't touched his 2019 peak. Ty France, meanwhile, is coming off a weaker year after being the go-to 1B guy in Seattle for years. He looks to start at 1st in Minnesota, filling in for a gold glove campaign from Carlos Santana. The Twins have Jose Miranda ready to go if things don't work out though.

White Sox: Travis Jankowski won a World Series with the Rangers, and this is the thanks they give him? And the worrying detail is I'm not even sure if Janko will make the team out of camp for the White Sox. 

Naylor Made

 

Josh Naylor was 3 RBIs away from his first 100 RBI season last year. Which leads me to believe that the AL Central pitching just got off easy.

The Guardians are lucky that they've built this very varied team, with Jose Ramirez at the head, defensive guys like Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio, and contact guys like Steven Kwan and David Fry. And then right in the middle, they have Josh Naylor, a guy whose contact and power skills are so ridiculous that sometimes it's not even worth trying. So far this season Naylor has 33 RBIs and 12 homers, as well as an .899 OPS. Right now he's undeniably one of the best offensive performers in Cleveland, and the Guardians are pressing him as the poster boy as the team defends its first place standing.

This is a role that Naylor did not always seem fit for. Even as far back as 2021, Naylor was seen as an oft-injured, middle-of-the-road infield type without many perks. This lack of real confidence is why the Padres traded him to Cleveland for Mike Clevinger in the first place, and while Naylor swore his allegiance to the Guardians, then the Indians, with a phenomenal showing in the 2020 AL Wild Card round, he may have been the only member of that team to show up that series. Then, upon the name change, Naylor started producing, hit 79 RBIs in 2022, and 97 last year. His season high bar for home runs is 20; he already has 12, and it's May. This may be Naylor's biggest power season yet, and it's happening for a first place, competitive, varied Guardians team. For a kid from Toronto this is pretty awesome.

It's cooler for Naylor considering that is younger brother Bo is the starting catcher for the Guardians this year. Bo, like Austin Hedges, isn't exactly hitting for average, but the hope is that, like Josh, the 24-year-old backstop will come into his own in Cleveland and solidify his contact numbers. At the same time, there is a third Naylor brother, Myles, who's in A-ball in the Athletics' system. So all I'm saying is if the A's ever wanted to reunite with Ramon Laureano for their last season in Oakland and needed a prospect they don't really care about to be dealt, uh...they've got that option. Can you imagine all three Mississauga Naylors in one lineup? It'd be like the Alous all over again.

Josh Naylor is definitely a key factor in keeping this Guardians team in 1st, as the Royals and Twins are gaining, and said Twins happen to be in town tonight. If Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee can keep these guys down, it would be very helpful, even if all three aren't in the best shape this year. Still, having a Guardians team starting this strong, along with some competition that doesn't feel half-hearted, is making this a much more exciting year for the AL Central.

Coming Tomorrow- The NL's answer to Anthony Volpe. Last year he was excellent on defense but struggled at the plate. This year...he's arrived.

This Year in Naylors

 

There are currently two Naylor siblings in the major leagues, and they both play for the Cleveland Guardians. Now that a third Naylor sibling has been drafted by an MLB club, as the youngest brother Myles was just selected by Oakland, we are not far from having three Naylor siblings in the league at the same time. And while at the moment it seems highly unlikely that Myles could be in a position to be dealt to Cleveland to join Josh and Bo on one team, remember that it was unlikely for Bo to join Josh for a while, and then Josh was traded by the Padres to Cleveland in exchange for Mike Clevinger, so you never know what might go down. Maybe the other Naylors will insist that Myles be an add-on in a trade for some Oakland asset. The possibility exists, and I'm gonna want it to happen.

As it stands, though, having two Naylor brothers aligned is already cool enough. Josh is already having a great season, hitting .312 with 76 RBIs and 15 homers, team marks on all three counts. I think it's easy to boil the Guardians down to just Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber sometime, as they're the marquee guys and nobody else is as outwardly newsworthy as them, but the Guardians have thrived off smaller, more subtle players who still get the job done for a while. All of Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan, Aaron Civale and Trevor Stephan can be described like that. Naylor just hits insanely well, and has a 2.0 WAR even if he's not especially well known for his defense [he's better than Josh Bell, though]. 

Bo, meanwhile, has been slowly working himself up the depth chart to get to the starting catching position. The opening day starter, Mike Zunino, struggled mightily to do the same things he'd struggled mightily to do a year prior with Tampa, but instead of getting universal acclaim and fan followings for it, he was DFA'd within 2 months. The next logical backup was Cam Gallagher, former Royals backup, and he's currently hitting .136 in 40 games, so at this point he's probably just meant to be a backup. And seeing as the nearest reliable catching option, Brian Lavastida, is still getting some much needed minors time, Naylor was the next best option. Bo is currently the better of the two catchers, even while only hitting .200 with 8 RBIs in 19 games. He, like his brother, is a fun piece of the clubhouse and the goal is for Bo to grow into his role as catcher and prevent against the Guardians dealing prospects for Omar Narvaez. 

The Guardians have been improving in recent weeks, have won 3 out of their last 4, and have a relatively easy run of scheduling til the Astros series at the end of the month. This can give them time to recover, and potentially build momentum for a playoff run that the still-hitting-starved Twins are only nominally going for at the moment. This is also the time of the year where the Guardians began to go for it last year, so it may happen again, especially with similar tactics. 

And remember, this is the amount of potential this Guardians team has with only two Naylors. Imagine if they add a third.

Coming Tonight: Closer for a team that dropped like a stone, even moreso than people thought they would.

Captain of the Guards

 In June, the Cleveland Guardians were working on a major coup against the Minnesota Twins, and were inches away from taking the division from them. Then they had a major losing streak, dipped around .500 again and the Twins kept the division. 

Now, the Guardians have succeeded where they failed two months ago. The Guardians have a 3 game lead over the Twins, who are sinking fast. The elements of this team that had begun to show up earlier this year are making them belong in first. Josh Naylor, who's struggled with injuries lately, is a big piece of this team, and has 57 RBIs and 15 homers. I had waited for a full season for Naylor to really prove himself, and this seems to be the one. And plus, he's a small part of a big effort to succeed, instead of being a sole outward force, like he had been in 2019 and 2020. I just think he's a fun player, and I think he's one of many fun stories [McKenzie, Gimenez, Anthony Gose] lurking around this Guardians team. 

You're also beginning to see even more prospect types work their way up. Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman are up in the majors and have been doing pretty well so far. With the extra infield spot now that Reyes is gone and Naylor can play DH, Freeman and Owen Miller are hopping in. Oscar Gonzalez and Jones sort of have a rookie platoon going in right field. Hell, Steven Kwan is still providing some incredible contact offense support on the other side of the outfield. The oldest people in this lineup are Jose Ramirez and Austin Hedges, and everyone else is just young, or a second year, or a rookie. Hell, Franmil Reyes was only 26, which is odd to me. 

The rotation's young too, everybody's 27 except for the 24-year-old Triston McKenzie, and they're all still doing really well. Shane Bieber isn't to his 2020 and 2021 heights, but he's got a 3.18 ERA and 140 Ks, so that's not bad at all. The entire rotation has stayed intact and healthy, save for Aaron Civale, the whole season, and it's been nice having 4 guys who've made their 21 starts AND are doing well. Plesac's 2-10 and he's still having a nice season. Even with the youth, there are so many pieces of this team hitting their peaks and having amazing seasons at the same time, and that's something I didn't think would happen in Cleveland for a few more years.

The issue will be fighting off the Twins as they inevitably hit a second wind in the next month or so, and the White Sox as they make one last push for the division. But I honestly think the Guardians are more confident now than they were in June, and look like more of a contender than they have in a while.

Coming Tomorrow- Every year, this guy has played for a different team. Every one of them has been competitive in some way. Will this be the one he sticks around with?

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Guardians

 

The last official year of Cleveland Indians baseball was a bit of a mess. Other than a routinely excellent Jose Ramirez performance, the young rotation taking shape, and some other minor moments, there wasn't a ton to really celebrate for Cleveland fans, and a lot of what I have to report here is just random thread lines. 

For instance- thanks to an injury keeping Roberto Perez down for most of the season, Austin Hedges was the Indians' starting catcher in 2021. In alternate universe where the Indians never trade for Brad Hand, they have Francisco Mejia doing decently. But, instead, they had Hedges, a solid defensive catcher with 0 offensive numbers. This year he had some great fielding and defensive numbers, but had a -24 batting figure, a career worse, bringing his WAR to a 0.0. 

2022 Prediction: The Guardians have another catching option that saddles Hedges to a backup. I'm just...not sure who that option's gonna be.

After a very strong rookie season as a bullpen asset, James Karinchak did level to a 4.07 ERA, but he snuck in some other important stats like 7 wins, 11 saves in backing up Emmanuel Clase, and 78 Ks. He's still a very crafty reliever with some serious heat to him, even if he does get unlucky in some places.

2022 Prediction: A much more consistent year. Karinchak will be the top bullpen arm in appearances, and solidify his role as a middle relief force.

In Carlos Santana's absence, the 1st base position was a hard-to-fill spot for the Indians this season. While Jake Bauers and Yu Chang made some attempts, the biggest one came from burgeoning youngster Bobby Bradley, who seems to have made the best case for the corner. Bradley only hit .208 in 74 games, but he was a crucial power bat, with 41 RBIs and 16 home runs. On a full season with a little more luck, who knows what he could do?

2022 Prediction: First 30-homer season. People will know his name.

After a SCORCHING postseason last year, Josh Naylor leveled into a starting outfield role with Cleveland, and hit .253 in 69 games with 59 hits and and 7 homers. His season was tragically cut short by an injury, but his place on the depth chart is still very strong.

2022 Prediction: A contact-friendly year that may result in a trade. 

After slipping out of the Miami depth chart himself, Harold Ramirez took another swing of things filling in for Naylor, and later Eddie Rosario. Ramirez did surprisingly well for himself, hitting .268 with 41 RBIs and 7 homers, and garnering 91 hits in 99 games. 

2021 Prediction: Will fill a similar role with the Cubs. In a climate starved for great players, the fans will take a liking to him.

And in one of the most crucial trades of the deadline, the Indians swapped Phil Maton for Myles Straw in a deal that, while it made sense for the Astros at the time, may wound them longer term. Straw absolutely lit up upon arriving in Cleveland, hitting .285 with 68 hits in 60 games, having some excellent defensive plays, and having the 7th-highest WAR on the team despite coming in 2/3rd of the way through the year.

2022 Prediction: Ends the season with the highest WAR of anybody on the Guardians, including Jose Ramirez. 

Tomorrow, some of the reasons why the Seattle Mariners were so deadly down the stretch.

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #226-234

 With this post, we reach the point where this 2020 Final Edition set has less than 100 cards left for me to show you all. I cannot believe we've really trucked through this set this quickly, but I'm intrigued to get to some more of the stuff I have left in the last 100 cards.

Card #226- Robbie Erlin, Atlanta Braves

As of now, the 2020 season counts as journeyman pitcher Robbie Erlin's final one, and judging by his Braves numbers, it's not the greatest way for a player to go out. True, he did get a location upgrade from the last place Pirates to the pennant-contending Braves thanks to a late-season trade, but the former Padres hurler struggled in a late-rotation role for the Braves, with an 8.49 ERA in 23 innings. For those reasons, Erlin was released in September to allow for Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson to be a part of the postseason roster.

Card #227- Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins

Ah yes, one of the bigger rookies of 2021 so far. Last year, however, Trevor Rogers was just another attempt at a starting job, in the absence of Jordan Yamamoto and Robert Dugger's better numbers. In 7 starts, Rogers struck out 39, but had a 6.11 ERA. In one postseason appearance, Rogers got beat up a bit by the Braves, as well. And yet he was given a starting nod in 2021 and has been fantastic in 8 starts, with a 5-2 record. Hopefully he keeps up the good work.

Card #228- Heath Hembree, Boston Red Sox

A few posts ago I mentioned Hembree's Phillies numbers, and how dismal they were. But let it be known that Heath Hembree, a longtime relief specialist for the Sox, was already struggling in Boston at the top of the season. Hembree had a 5.59 ERA in 11 games in Boston, so the Sox weren't exactly frightened of losing him. The good news is that Hembree is rebounding from his 2020 season very well with the Reds right now.

Card #229- Wandy Peralta, San Francisco Giants

Another guy in the news right now. Wandy Peralta was a Cincinnati reliever who was dealt to the Giants at the 2019 waiver deadline. In 2020, he gave the Giants some pretty strong numbers in relief, with a 3.29 ERA in 25 games, with as many strikeouts in that period. Peralta was often on-hand as a mop-up man in non-save situations, a role he was also placed into in 2021 with less success. Peralta is a big deal right now because the Giants traded him to New York for Mike Tauchman, an outfielder whose bat and heath the Yankees could really use right now considering the injuries that are attacking the outfielder. Peralta has been pretty good in the Bronx so far, but not as good as Sockman has been in SF. 

Card #230- Mike Clevinger, San Diego Padres

The golden prize of the 2020 trade deadline, Mike Clevinger was having a great season in Cleveland before violating COVID protocols to have a good time in Chicago. So the Indians, as punishment...sent him to the Padres, the most promising team in the league? Not really much of a punishment, don't you think? Clevinger started 5 games in San Diego, one in the postseason, and was pretty strong, with a 2.84 regular season ERA, and 19 Ks. Only problem is the fast-throwing Clevinger was wearing out his arm, and would need Tommy John surgery after the season. The Padres have him signed til 2022, so they'll get one strong season out of him, at least, but he's not gonna see any time in 2021.

Card #231- Josh Naylor, Cleveland Indians

One of the San Diego players dealt in exchange for Clevinger was Toronto's own masher Josh Naylor, who immediately went to work to prove himself worthy of a starting spot, which he failed to do even in a DH-friendly Padres season. But Naylor fit the Indians' mash-mentality a lot more, with 14 hits in 22 games. The postseason, though, is where Naylor came to life. He only got two games, against the Yankees, to make a name for himself, but with a .714 average with 3 RBIs and a homer, plus 5 hits overall, he definitely gave the Yankees' pitching some scares. So far he's on the right track as a power hitter as well this season.

Card #232- Derek Dietrich, Texas Rangers

After finding fame as an everyman super-ute in Miami, Derek Dietrich shifted to an all out power bench bat in Cincinnati in 2019. After being cut by the Reds out of camp, Dietrich laid low until the Rangers came calling, and by early August he was up and playing in Arlington. In 25 games he only hit .197, but had 8 RBIs and 5 homers, which was enough one-dimensional power for a very blah Rangers team last year. Dietrich tried to make camp with the Yankees this year, but he was cut in favor of Jay Bruce, and we all know how well that turned out.

Card #233- Ryan Castellani, Colorado Rockies

In the absence of Tim Melville, the new young inexperienced Rockies starting auditione was now Ryan Castellani, the longtime farmhand who'd been in the system since 2014. Castellani started 9 games and had the usual acclimation period in Denver, with a 5.82 ERA and 4 losses. He's already been called upon for a start this year, but since the Gray-Marquez-Senza-Gomber-Gonzalez rotation has been solid otherwise, he's already been sent down.

Card #234- Michael Conforto ASG, New York Mets

In a 2020 season where the All Star Game had been played, Michael Conforto would not have gotten the start in right due to Mookie Betts' incredible start, but he definitely would have made the team and gotten some playing time during the game. Last season was another strong one for the contact-hitting outfielder, and Conforto has become one of the perennial stars to watch for the Mets. So far he's not exactly on his A-game at the plate, but the season is young.

Next up are 9 more cards on Monday, including some of the biggest stories of 2021 foreshadowed last year.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Indians

 

The Cleveland Indians had their comeback season, on the heels of Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, and some other characters that represented their growth since moving on from the core of their 2016 team.

However, one of the big pieces of said 2016 team, Carlos Santana, had a step backwards after an ASG season last year. Despite hitting 30 RBIs, Santana ended the year with a .199 average and a small figure of 8 home runs. Clearly a down year for Slamtana, and seemingly the final one for him in Cleveland.

2021 Prediction: In Kansas City, he'll have 25 home runs while building his average up slightly.

Zach Plesac, for those keeping score at home, was the Indians starter who got caught partying in Chicago and REMAINED on the team, instead of being punished by...[checks notes]...getting traded to an NLDS-qualifying Padres team, getting Tommy John surgery and a two-year deal and still being a top-tier starter. 

Plesac still had a good year though, post-scorning. In 8 starts he had a 4-2 record, a 2.28 ERA and 57 strikeouts. If he doesn't make any similar screwups in 2021, he should more than make up for the loss of Clevinger.

2021 Prediction: Remember in 2013 when Justin Verlander sort of stepped back so Max Scherzer could have his big year? Expect Shane Bieber to do something like that for Plesac.

Brad Hand led the league in saves this season, which should be a big deal. For some reason that I not able to determine, despite a 2.08 ERA, zero blown saves and 29 strikeouts, the Indians weren't enamored with Hand's work in 2020, and didn't offer him a contract offer for 2021. I have no idea why. This guy's been a solid closer for 3 years now, he just had a stellar year, and y'all are just acting like he's been bad all along? Baffling to me.

2021 Prediction: Hand gets 40 saves for a last place team and the joke will be on Cleveland.

One of the biggest stars of the 2020 postseason for the Indians, as short-lived as their run their was, was Josh Naylor, a kid out of Toronto who up until recently was warming the bench for San Diego. Upon arriving in Cleveland, Naylor hit .230 with 14 hits and 2 RBIs in 22 games. In two postseason games, however, Naylor sported a .714 average with 5 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. Absolutely insane postseason material against NY, despite being on the losing side.

2021 Prediction: The official Indians DH, complete with a high average and a bunch of homers.

It impresses me that even with its stellar rotation this year, the Indians still had room to call up their pitching prospect, the tall, slender Triston McKenzie, who struck out 10 in 6 innings, the most Ks in a debut by an Indians pitcher ever. McKenzie finished the season with a 3.24 ERA and 42 Ks in 8 games. 

2021 Prediction: Rotation member right off the bat, fans 200 batters and gets some Cy Young votes. 

Aaron Civale was a crucial member of the rotation for the full year, starting 12 games and posting a 4.74 ERA with 69 Ks and 4 wins. Despite being the most human of all of the full-time starters for the Indians this year, he still is a nice strikeout artist with some potential.

2021 Prediction: Wins 12 games despite being the 4th or 5th man in the rotation.

Undeniably, James Karinchak was the best reliever in Cleveland this year. In 27 relief appearances he posted a 2.67 ERA with 53 strikeouts, stymying tons of batters throughout the year. The good luck wore off a little in the postseason, but I doubt the Indians are giving up on him anytime soon.

2021 Prediction: The closing gig is his. I say he makes a big statement with it.

Despite Karnichak's dominance, there was still room for the 38-year-old Oliver Perez to take down some batters, as he has for the last 3 seasons in Cleveland. Perez had a 2.00 ERA this year and 14 strikeouts in 21 appearances. Fantastic that he's still an integral part of this team.

2021 Prediction: Someone signs him to a minor league deal, he makes the deal and helps them into the playoffs. Then retires, I reckon.

Coming Tomorrow- Genuine good things to say about the Mariners. 

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals: 2020 Edition

I wasn't expecting much from this trade deadline, somehow, and yet in the last 24 hours things became absolutely insane. Stars flew across coasts, teams split up rotations, and a true competitive giant became clear. Somehow the biggest money-spending teams, like the Dodgers and Yankees, went largely without doing anything, which was a surprise, but far from the only one this deadline.

I have a Top 10 set up, as per usual, but first, several honorable mentions:

-Mychal Givens to Colorado, prospects to Baltimore

-Miguel Castro to Queens, prospect to Baltimore

-Jarrod Dyson to the White Sox, prospects to Pittsburgh

-Mitch Moreland to the Padres, prospects to Boston

-Cameron Maybin to the Cubs, prospects to Detroit

-Jose Martinez to the Cubs, prospects to Tampa

-Ross Stripling to the Blue Jays, prospects to the Dodgers

-Brian Goodwin to the Reds, prospect to Anaheim [this is one of the dumbest moves for me, as the Reds now seem like they're actively preventing Tyler Stephenson or Aristedes Aquino from having any playing time]

-Kevin Pillar to the Rockies, prospects to Boston

-Jason Castro to the Padres, prospects to Anaheim

-Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays, prospects to Seattle

-Tommy Milone to Atlanta, prospects to the O's [this would have been #10 had he not gotten rocked last night]

AND NOW THE TOP TEN:

#10: Tommy La Stella to Oakland, Franklin Barreto and a prospect to Anaheim:

How it Benefits Oakland: I think the A's had run out of ways to placate Franklin Barreto, as they'd been relying on Tony Kemp at 2nd all year, but even then they needed a bit more flexibility, and this gives them that. La Stella could return to his role as bench-player-extraordinaire from 2018 as well as providing a solid infield bat and essentially being a return to the Jed Lowrie era of utility guys getting starts. Definitely a smart lineup-strengthening move for Beane and co.

#9: Todd Frazier to the Mets, prospects to Arlington:

How it benefits the Mets: Reunites them with a clubhouse presence that can help them advance AND be comfortable in the NY metropolitan area. Frazier's Mets years weren't his BIGGEST, but he still developed a sharp fan following, and became a solid producer for the team. As okay as he was in Texas, he could become even better in Queens and return to his former glory, which could benefit New York along with their other new additions of Miguel Castro and Robinson Chirinos. 

#8: Trevor Rosenthal to San Diego, prospects to Kansas City

How it benefits the Padres: One of many attempts to help the Friars' scattershot bullpen in the wake of injuries to Kirby Yates and some inflated ERAs, along with Taylor Williams and Dan Altavilla. Rosenthal is the most stark addition- the former St. Louis closer had a return to form in KC this year with 7 saves and 21 Ks, finally returning to the conversation. Now that he's a factor in the Padres' bullpen, he could either challenge Drew Pomeranz for the ninth inning job or join Williams and Altavilla in the middle-relief journey.

#7: Archie Bradley to the Reds, Josh Van Meter to the D-Backs

How it benefits the D-Backs: Van Meter's a sharp bench player, and he could definitely do well in a bigger role.

How it benefits the Reds: Well, the Reds are another team with bullpen injuries, and even Raisel Iglesias isn't doing as well as usual, so...all-star reliever and closer Archie Bradley will do just fine! The guy's having another fantastic season, he's versatile, and he'll bring a lot to the table alongside Amir Garrett in that bullpen. This move brings them slightly closer to competing in the NL Central.

#6: Robbie Ray to Toronto, prospect to Arizona

How it benefits the Jays: STRIKEOUT ARTIST ROBBIE RAY IS NOW YOUR #2 MAN, TORONTO. Granted, Ray has gotten into some trouble this year, and is struggling to keep opposing offenses at bay, but getting out of the NL West and away from the Rockies, Dodgers and Padres may be better for him. He's still doing a lot of strikeouts, and putting him next to Taijuan Walker, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark is a good look for the Jays. 

 #5: Mike Minor to the A's, prospects to the Rangers
How it benefits Oakland: Like the Ray deal, this one is a lot better in concept than it is numerically this season, hence the lower placing, so you have to put it into the perspective of 'Mike Minor was amazing last year, and hopefully he still has some of that power with him for the last month of the year'. Minor's been slumping so far, and hopefully it's an environmental thing rather than a loss of velocity or anything. Anyway, he'll be a good match for Mike Fiers in the A's rotation, and bring some much-needed experience to that mostly-young crew.

 #4: Jonathan Villar to the Blue Jays, prospects [JEFF CONINE'S SON] to the Marlins
How it benefits Toronto: Gives them a substantial, offensively-talented replacement for Bo Bichette and an eventual DH option once Bo returns. But also, Jonathan Villar in this lineup could make the Jays into the postseason contender this team definitely wants to be. Ray and Walker help, but Villar adds a legitimate star alongside Biggio and Grichuk to bulk the lineup, and this team's chances. It's not an outwardly OMG move like getting Price or Tulo, but it's a lower-key move for a lower-key Jays team. Which I can respect.

 #3: Austin Nola to the Padres, Taylor Trammell, Luis Torrens and Ty France to the Mariners
How it helps the Ms: Trammell, Lewis and Kelenic in the same outfield? Holy crap. France will fill the utility role Nola had been filling so far. Torrens will hopefully get the starting gig he's been waiting for.
How it benefits the Padres: As this lineup was turning out to be a monolith, the real weak point looked like it would be catcher, even as Torrens came in. Austin Nola is not only a decent catcher, but he's got that sort of lineup x-factor about him where he can get a lot done in a lot of roles, and would probably gain star power within another season or so in Seattle. Putting him in a competitive San Diego team that has a space for him and needs another bat like him is a wise move that, I imagine, is going to warrant me putting this at #3 over Mike Minor and Robbie Ray in a year's time [remember when I said last year that I'd come back to Zac Gallen in a year or so? D-Backs made a steal there]

 #2: Starling Marte to the Marlins, Caleb Smith, Humberto Mejia and a prospect to the D-Backs
How it Benefits Arizona- Their only real rotation loss was Robbie Ray, so adding Smith and Mejia to the Weaver-Gallen-Clarke-Young wheel is actually a pretty nice deal.
How it Benefits Miami: This was my biggest shock, because it was a reminder that the Marlins were still trying to compete, even after dealing Smith and Villar. It proved that all the Marlins needed was a big star in the lineup to remain in the conversation, and Starling Marte in that outfield with Magneuris Sierra and Corey Dickerson could be genuinely dangerous. Marte is still a league-caliber bat with some more damage to do this season, and even if the Marlins only make it a short while into the playoffs, having Marte could bring them a little more life than otherwise.

#1, of course: Mike Clevinger and Greg Allen to the Padres, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges and Josh Naylor to the Indians

How it Benefits Cleveland: Honestly, in a longer term scenario, the Indians might have gotten more out of this, because Josh Naylor is gonna replace Domingo Santana as DH, Austin Hedges will add another [sub-.200] catcher to the rolodex, and Cal Quantrill should be a steady replacement for Clevinger, at least in terms of likability.

How it Benefits San Diego: So, now the Padres' rotation is Clevinger-Paddack-Lamet-Davies-Richards. That's, uh...that's pretty good, especially for a team that now has a better bullpen, bench and lineup. Clevinger might be the cherry on top of all the other moves, because he gives the team a genuine ace, someone they might have had with Chris Paddack had he gotten off to a better start this year. Clevinger will lead this rotation into the playoffs, where they should be welcomed. Also, Greg Allen is another nice bench bat, along with Moreland. 

Huge deadline this year. Lots of odd moves and outcomes. Interested to see how the rest of the season rolls out now.