All That Talk And Nothing to Say

 

It's not uncommon for the Houston Astros to start with a mediocre April record. In fact, it happens more often than not- the big thing for this team is getting hot around June and not letting up. But this time seems different. This time, with even more trusted players gone, and even more pitchers hurt, it just feels like the Astros that remain really can't match up.

Here's the big stat: there are only two Astros hitters that currently have a Batting Runs Better Than Average figure in the positives. They are Chas McCormick, who's hitting .318 in 22 at-bats, and Isaac Paredes, who's hitting .245 with 13 RBIs. Everybody else has negative hitting figures. Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Jake Meyers, Yordan Alvarez, Cam Smith...even Jose Altuve, whose defensive mishaps have given him a -0.3 WAR to start the season. Jeremy Pena, hitting .255 with 11 RBIs, has a 0 batting figure. You take Bregman and Tucker out of the equation and it's clear how many guys are simply average hitters. It hurts even more with Jeremy Pena being literally average. They farmed and brought him up to succeed Correa, and for him to just sort of putter by on his defense and base running isn't what they wanted.

Where this team still succeeds is with young pitching, which definitely helps considering they're still without McCullers, Garcia, Javier and France, and now Spencer Arrighetti is missing some time. They're always gonna be able to rely on Framber Valdez I think, the guy might be one of the most consistent hurlers around. What has helped is Hunter Brown's incredible start, going 4-1 with 40 Ks and a 1.22 ERA, culminating in a 1.7 WAR. Whatever struggles Brown has had in the past seems to be in the rearview, and he's giving the team confidence where there could have been panic. Even Hayden Wesneski, who struggled for years in Chicago, is more confident here, with a 3.86 ERA in 5 games. Ryan Gusto has also been a great piece, finally debuting after 5 years in the minors: he's 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA filling in for Arrighetti. And plus, this has been a much better season for Josh Hader, finally seeming like his old self with a 0.69 ERA and 7 saves already.

So...they're not allowing a ton of runs, but they're also not hitting. Which has never really been an issue with them. Even through rough starts they'd still manage one-dimensional power stuff. But together the team is hitting .231 with only 21 home runs. And you're seeing Springer, Bregman, Tucker, even organizational pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, all doing way better elsewhere. This was always how things could end up if they kept playing the way they did, and the realization could set in if the slump continues. It may not, as the team always finds the moment to start hitting to specifically spite me, but this may be the team that fails where every other one succeeded.

Coming Tomorrow- FOUR HOME RUNS IN ONE GAME.