What Sophomore Slump?

 

I think it's going to be difficult at this rate to describe to future fans that during a season where he led the league in triples with 14, stole 35 bases and hit 74 RBIs, Corbin Carroll was considered to be a second-year disappointment. Many people rooted it to a tale of two halves; in the first half of the 2024 season, Carroll hit .213 with 5 home runs, and in the second he hit .259 with 17 home runs. I think it's even more specific than that; in all months except for August, Carroll was a .230 hitter, but in August he hit .280 with 24 RBIs and 11 home runs. The magic he was able to display year-round in 2023 only showed up for one month in 2024. Sometimes it turns out like that, especially when you're young and coming off a stellar rookie season. It happened to Bryce Harper, it happened to Buster Posey, and it might be happening to Paul Skenes at this rate.

The good news for Corbin Carroll is I don't think his rookie season was a fluke. I think his sophomore season was.

Right now, Carroll has the highest WAR in baseball, 1.3 WAR through the first two and a half weeks of the season. He's hitting .322 with 19 hits, 10 RBIs and 5 home runs. The one concerning factor is that he hasn't stolen a base yet, but I assume he will get there. Carroll is commanding the Diamondbacks, and being the exact kind of leading force I figured he'd be in his rookie season. Carroll is leading a lineup of great performance by people like Josh Naylor, Geraldo Perdomo, Pavin Smith, Alek Thomas and Eugenio Suarez, who will likely be a fantastic power bat again regardless of his trouble hitting for average. Even with Ketel Marte out for another week or so [I'm guessing], there's enough power and smart hitting to make this team a force. And it's fantastic that this team has two different central leadership figures, so that when one gets injured the other can still bring the team through.

But...here's the thing. The NL West this year is one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. The Dodgers are great, which we knew was coming. The Padres are great...and the Giants are great. That's three different teams that are playing at incredible paces, and continuing at their current pace, the D-Backs, as good as they are, are a fourth place team. Even with the offensive advantage, their three top starters, Burnes, Gallen and Kelly, have been disappointing so far. It's good for Brandon Pfaadt, who's been excellent, and it's good for the bullpen, which has been strong overall [plus Jalen Beeks and Ryan Thompson get to reunite and talk about how everything has been so good for them specifically lately]. But they really can't be a top tier NL West team if the rotation, which got them to a World Series in 2023, isn't working.

I do think the D-Backs have a chance longterm, especially if Corbin Carroll goes the distance, but it won't be easy, and it relies on at least one of the competitors falling apart. I'm open to it, though. If it keeps the division race entertaining, which is already is, I'm onboard.

Coming Tonight:  He made an ALCS last year, and even if nobody else saw it coming, he really wants his new team to be competitive as well.