Wild Card Series' Day 2: How's THAT ONE the Even One??

 

I just don't understand this at all. Going into this wild card week, I was figuring that one of these would be really cut and dry, over before it started, and the rest would be back and forth. As it turns out, that was not the case at all. Two series I figured would cause me pain didn't even remotely. And the one that I figured would be a foregone conclusion...is going to game three. 

I'm...vexed. I knew the Braves had weaknesses worthy of being exploited. I just did not think the Phillies were good enough to exploit them at the moment. Very clearly the Braves are good at pointing out ours, like the defensive schematic being pointless if Arraez isn't in at second, the bullpen instability, the lack of general run support and the tendency to lay down meatballs at inopportune moments. We did a lot of that. Harper and Bohm made errors that, if they didn't tie and win the game respectfully, would have been further scrutinized.

All in all, Sanchie put on a clinic, the offense showed up and Bohm came to life yet again, Harper and Schwarber did some heavy lifting, and this team held the Braves down long enough to force a game 3. I do not know how well this is going to go, because the Phillies still have those issues that are concerning everyone, but...we forced a Game 3 against a team that's better than us. The Braves, even if they win this series, may not recover from nearly slipping against a Phils team that can't hit. The Dodgers could have fun with that, arguably more fun than they would if we somehow win this game. 

The Phils really know how to drive me up the wall some days. Maybe this works out. Kinda horrified about the prospect of LA but hey...maybe NOW we gain the momentum we should have all year. If not, Braves-Dodgers is what I was already prepping for anyway.

Anyway, the shellackings. So...the White Sox won a playoff series for the first time in years, the Astros lost in the first round and were exploited for being a weak division winner, and the fun wild card team gets to take on Cleveland and possibly reclaim the narrative of the whole season. I like this a lot better than 'well, it's the Astros......again..' Like, what the hell else can you even say about them at this point? They've sucked so hard they might go to another ALCS? 

The White Sox's contact battery was exactly as successful this playoff series as I'd hoped it'd be. Kyle Teel, Andrew Benintendi and Tristan Peters piled on the contact stuff to end Hunter Brown's day WAY earlier than I thought it would, then Chase Meidroth pulled it over the edge with a 3-run bomb off Peter Lambert, who the Astros already decided wasn't starting Game 3 and certainly wouldn't now. They now head to Cleveland with Davis Martin fully rested, Sean Burke riding pretty high, Kay and Fedde both viable options, and the offense fired up. Murakami came to the White Sox to lay low and made it to the playoffs immediately, and I love it for him.

I will give the Astros credit. Despite giving up, they never completely gave up.

[reads over a second time] Yeah.

They fought til the end. Jose Altuve, Cam Smith and Jeremy Pena all homered. The bullpen locked in more than the starters could. I think it's so fitting that the big error of the game was committed by Lucas Spence, because if it weren't for his four home runs in the A's series, the Astros probably wouldn't even have been a playoff team to begin with. They are here because of Lucas Spence, and they're booted from the playoffs after two games...also because of Lucas Spence. Full circle. Spence probably has a nice career ahead of him, or the Astros hope he does, as Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo and Brice Mathews haven't really firmed things up at all. 

I figured the Yankees had the edge over Boston. I did not think it would go like this.

Basically...the Sox' bullpen ruined two good starts by their main guns, the main bats didn't show up, and the Yankees, at home, took advantage of every last misstep. Tonight, Cody Bellinger was the kingkiller, with the 3-run bomb off of Garrett Whitlock, after Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, George Lombard and Luis Garcia Jr. had already made a mess of things. People are worried about the lack of Aaron Judge, but considering that Bellinger, Jones, Lombard, Volpe, Chisholm, Grisham, Wells, Garcia and especially Ben Rice have come through in huge moments for this team, they can worry less. The whole time, the Yankees have been trying to be more than just 'Aaron Judge's team', and right now that's what we are. The whole team won this series and kept it short. 

Rays-Yankees is gonna be TOUGH. I think we can find a way through but the Rays have a whole mess of weapons, and they will not make it easy. If either team makes the ALCS, they'll deserve it. I hope the Yanks can rise to the occasion, but the Rays have been too much for them at many points. I just hope this time will be different. 

There was a moment where it genuinely looked like the Sox were tanking for seed choice. They were losing the last few games of the year, and I thought it was because they wanted to face Houston and not the Yanks. Which would have been a smart move because they'd have won against Houston. In all actuality it was because they completely ran out of steam and had nothing left by the time they got to the Bronx. 

The Sox still got a decent start out of Sonny Gray, a helpful homer from Willson Contreras, and a winning throw from Nate Eaton to nab Ben Rice at home. That's it. Garrett Crochet was not ready and soiled the game. Whitlock, as good as he's been this year, didn't help either. Rutschman, Abreu, Rafaela and Durbin were listless. It was a relatively cut and dry series, which is great for me personally but you never want that for Yanks-Sox. It's gotta be back and forth, that's more fun. I appreciate the ease of it all but...it's just clear they were exhausted just from their second half comeback. That's a win in itself, and hopefully the Chad Tracy era yields more seasons like these, but...yeah, not the immediate gratification many fans were hoping for.

The wild card teams that make the playoffs always are correspondent to their momentum. If they're gaining as the season ends they've got a shot, if they're losing they may be in trouble. The Cubs had some momentum going into September and lost it...around the same time the Padres gained theirs. So this one was honestly pretty simple.

A lot is gonna be said going into next year about Xander Bogaerts. He hasn't put up Sox numbers as a Padre but he's been plenty good, and his big RBIs this series are proof that he can be helpful in the postseason. Maybe there's merit to that contract after all. Same with Machado, who looked like a lost cause in the first half and wound up with a 30 homer/90 RBI season anyway, just with a bit less heft than usual. These guys can be helpful even off their peaks. Of course, Gavin Sheets was the real hero, breaking the game open with a massive bomb and making the eventual win a foregone conclusion.

The Padres looked amazing this series. Unfortunately, now they have to play the best team in baseball. The hope will be that the momentum holds and they can best Milwaukee in an upset, but this will be tough with the lack of real starting depth the Padres have. 

So here's the thing. Tropicana Field might be cursed now. Which is intriguing.

The last game of the season, the Sox were GOING TO host the Cubs at Fenway, and then a huge storm came and MLB said 'no, this game has to be played, we have Tropicana Field open, get down there'. Let's forget that the Yanks and O's also have a game in the line of fire, and that's not gonna get played at all, but Cubs-Sox needs to be played, even if they're both in, and even if the seeds are pretty solid. So the Cubs and Red Sox go down to Tampa, play in this meaningless game, Roman Anthony gets hurt, Alex Bregman attempts to play hurt. And then they both go for their playoff games and they both lose immediately. Rob Manfred, as he's going to a lot in the next six months, will insist there was no connection. But it's awfully suspicious that you hurl two teams out of their comfort zones and they both lose right after. And one guy gets hurt. 

The Cubs did not have any life this series. I also think they were at the mercy of their starting pitching options, and Boyd and Gausman were not as strong postseason options as they were last year. The bullpen didn't help either. And both PCA and Bregman failed to really make much of an impact. There is definitely a future for this team, and Pedro Ramirez had a very nice rookie come-up as a depth infielder and contact bat, but next year they'll need to contend with the Cardinals, who will inevitably strike back, and the Pirates, who'll hopefully have a healthier Paul Skenes, and unless the pitching suddenly reverts to classic energy [getting Steele and Horton back at full strength would certainly help], it'll be much tougher. 

Alright, all down to Atlanta tonight. Would love a Phils win somehow but I also have tempered my expectations and know, realistically, who the better team is. Intrigued nonetheless.

Somebody Has to Win

 
It is...the last week of the season. The thread lines are getting wrapped up before the playoffs start. Everybody is jockeying for position. The Rays already have a first round bye, the NL race is just coming down to wild card seeding. Everything is coming together.

The one issue is that not only do we not have an AL West champion yet, but neither team is above .500. So...if either the Rangers or Astros could stop not wanting it for a moment, we could actually figure out what the story of this division will be.

At the moment, the story of the AL West in 2026 has just been not committing. The Mariners were primed to win out this year, and they continuously refused to put anything together. The A's had a big push early on but completely fell apart once the tentpole hitters got hurt. The Rangers were technically next best but they kept frigging losing. They remained determined, refusing to deal at the deadline despite nearly giving Jacob deGrom to the Braves, and then they roared back in September with the return of some needed pieces. And yet...they're still under .500. They had a leg up on the Astros a moment ago and now they're tied again at 1st. The Astros, meanwhile, have bubbled under, grabbed 1st for a bit but haven't had it commandingly arguably, and don't want to let a postseason opportunity slip by for a second consecutive year [man imagine like...not making the playoffs for a decade]. 

So what happens now? Well...somebody is going to need to show up. Either the division winner will be a momentum team and slay some people despite the record, or it will be a cut and dry in and out appearance during wild card week. Either way, it needs to be earned.

The Rangers have become a very scrappy, hard to keep down sort of team, which is what happens when Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran play crucial roles. Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Brandon Nimmo make up a really nice core which has kept the team from completely sinking under recent losses. The successor for Marcus Semien has arrived almost immediately, and it is Justin Foscue and his contact work. And then you've got the return of Nathan Eovaldi, utilized as a long relief guy with perks. Eovaldi's had a down year after his strong 2025, which is kind of expected, but he's still got 11 wins and 147 Ks. Between Evo, deGrom and Gore, they're not exactly down on strikeout artists, and now that Cody Bradford's back it's even better. I think from a pitching standpoint they're better suited for October, as they also have Jacob Latz, Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander standing by. It's not as deep as the 2023 team, but they could surprise some people.

And then you have the Astros, who are dangerous enough to still be a factor. Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena and now Yainer Diaz have been very reliable at the plate. Alvy's obviously looking for an MVP, but quietly Paredes is somehow just as good right now? He's got 23 homers, 90 RBIs and an .800 OPS, and has gotten even better as the year's gone on. This is another all-timer year for Josh Hader in the ninth, a strong season for both Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski, and a surprise comeback from Peter Lambert. The Astros teams are just very well built, can sustain bad seasons and injuries, and can never be counted out. I owe it to the strength of the organization and the depth of the roster. The issue is, and this ties into why they're not a runaway 1st place team, you can tell this is a depleted version of this team. Big pieces have moved on, big homegrown players are in other markets, and the reinforcements haven't completely taken over yet. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Ethan Pecko, Miguel Ullola and Lucas Spence are here, but they're not running away with anything, at least not in the way that some of the Rangers rookies are.

It's still a toss up, and the fact that the Mets have been fighting back against the Rangers and the Astros have had no trouble with the Mariners proves it's not a sensible path at all. It could come down to the wire, and the winner may still not be a .500 team. I think, just from a logic standpoint, that the Astros will probably win out just because they've had more season leverage...but I still kind of want the Rangers to work an upset at the eleventh hour. The Astros thrive with a late rally, but the Rangers have proven that they can find momentum even before the Astros do.

Whoever wins will definitely earn it. Where they go from there is up to them.

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know...the most important guy moved at the deadline and all...

Short Supply

 

My constant disgust towards the Astros means nothing. The more spiteful I get, the more they figure out how to win games. They're two games over .500, flinging around the Phils' pitching this week, waiting for the Rangers or somebody to catch up when it probably isn't gonna happen. Unless somebody stops them, they're winning the AL West in a year where barely anyone in it's getting a passing grade. I don't know if that's something to be proud of, but for the Astros a win's a win. In another universe Alvarez still gets a triple crown on a losing team, but I guess it's all that much sweeter that they're winning. 

Jose Altuve...he's just as infuriating to talk about as the rest of the Astros. The last two seasons, he has not done a damned thing in relation to the team's success. You could argue that since 2023 he's been replacement level, as he turned into more of a power guy than a pure contact guy, his defense sank and now he's kind of just an inessential veteran. He has 15 homers and 44 RBIs, but he hit 77 RBIs last year, so we know he can do better. He's 36, slowly reaching the end of what will probably be a Hall of Fame career [and let me be clear, I wouldn't vote for him because I don't reward cheaters], and doesn't have a ton left to contribute. This is the point where guys like Alvarez, Pena, Walker and Smith can carry the load, but he's still gonna persist, because he's Jose Altuve, and he's gonna be an Astro as long as he can manage it. His next hit, which has probably happened by the time of posting, will be number 2500, and 3000 is technically within reach because of the strength of those first several seasons. Obviously he's a great player, I'll just never respect him. 

He's such a minuscule part of this team that there isn't much to be dragged down. The rotation's figured things out, Brown, Lambert, Wesneski and Javier seem to be on a nice pace right now. Ethan Pecko's getting the 5 spot, and he's not terrific but he's getting the job done. Josh Hader's been phenomenal in the ninth, and seems to be back to where he was before the injury [again, written before Phils game was over]. Smith is hitting, Paredes and Pena are hitting, Daulton Varsho went yard against the Phils [the team that was supposed to trade for him], Yainer Diaz is finding his swing, and Alvarez, while being eclipsed for the home run lead by Junior Caminero, is still looking for history, and is very close to attaining it. I say let him, he's a fearsome hitter with so much ability, and it's been years since the last triple crown. If it was Altuve I'd be mad, but Alvarez is so good you can't even be that disappointed. 

The Astros have two real tasks going forward. One is winning the division, which should be easy enough if the Rangers keep forgetting they can still take it. The other is actually standing a chance against wild card competitors with better records. The idea is they'd likely play the sixth seed, which would be any combination of the Jays, Guardians, O's, Rangers, whoever's left standing there. The old Astros would be a menace no matter the seed. I don't know about this Astros team yet. They had a lead against the Phils, it got thinner as the game went on. They still won but it got dangerously close. Remember when these guys could no-hit Philadelphia? I don't know if this team can do that anymore. I think they're lucky, and streaky, but I don't know if they have it to go deep this year.

Then again these jerks have proven me wrong before. So who knows?

Coming Tonight: 2 Cy Youngs, a lot of money, and miraculously some classic stuff looking for that second ring. 

On the Precipice of Another Yanks-Stros Series

 

So here's what we know. When it doesn't count, the Yankees have a winning record against the Astros. Regular season play we win a lot of our series' against them now. This season the Astros lost their first series against the Yankees back in April. Admittedly that was when we still had Aaron Judge but it's okay now because Heliot Ramos and his negative batting average is here. 

It is now late August, and both teams have playoff considerations. One team is on a relatively strong run right now, and the other team has been shakily bobbing back and forth between 1st and 2nd on a sub-.500 record. One team is getting stronger as more people come back, and one team just fired their GM and traded away a starting pitcher in a year they really needed starting pitching.

What I'm saying is I'm worried.

Tonight, the Astros are starting a rookie named Ethan Pecko, a guy from Upper Darby who, between him and Adam Macko, ensure that Texas will now lead the union in names I cannot take seriously. ETHAN PECKO. Sounds like a side character in an Animaniacs sub-character segment. The Goodfeathers take on Ethan Pecko in Breakfast: Impossible. He did fine in his debut last week, but gave up the sole two runs of the game against the Angels, meaning the bullpen, which has been snakebitten but improving, had to save the day. Considering that Peter Lambert and Hayden Wesneski are playing big roles for this rotation, why not Ethan Pecko? I'll remind you that Cristian Javier is struggling to stay unhit, Ronel Blanco's chilling in the minors after an 8 ERA, Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai aren't allowed to start anymore and Spencer Arrighetti's now helping a team I don't hate make a playoff run. And that these rotations used to be so packed that Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia would barely make the cut. But sure, Ethan Pecko.

I feel similarly about Cam Smith, one of the go-to outfield bats for the Astros now. He's been here all season and he's hitting .215 with a .671 OPS, despite 17 homers and 48 RBIs. This outfield has seen George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker, and now it's basically down to Cam Smith to keep things moving, and...he's a sharp enough player but right now he doesn't compare. And the team desperately needs him to. At least Jeremy Pena has covered for Carlos Correa excellently, and is having a terrific year despite missing time. At least Yordan Alvarez is probably winning an MVP as a rare returning Astro who can actually do what he's supposed to. If there's no support, and a lot of okay options rather than strong ones at multiple spots, there's no point.

There's still a chance the Astros can win the division, because the Rangers are similarly noncommittal and the Mariners seem to have decided to punt. But I really think it's an uphill battle with this specific squad. I'm still very worried they can outdo the Yankees this week and get rolling, but I just don't see the vision with this team going deep.

Coming Tonight: He was given the ninth in a huge market last season, and he struggled. So they got someone else. Then that someone else shat the bed big time and now the other guy's a great closer again.

Once Again Rewarding Ineptitude

 

Only in America can something suck for three and a half months and still win.

Let's compare the Astros' sudden rise to other teams I don't like rising midyear and taking off. The 2015/2016 Blue Jays teams had June swells and used smart July dealing to get even better and run to the ALCS. The 2010s Cardinals teams were also sneaky, efficiently run and always on the outskirts, waiting for that great three week stress to propel them to a division win. Last year's Blue Jays team, like the 2015 one, rode a June swell but used the 'uncommon man' theory and threw a ragtag, unpolished group of sheer competitors in the ring with the LA Dodgers. 

If the Astros are able to do anything at all this season despite having an absolute lemon of a roster, a completely snakebitten rotation that they themselves traded key pieces of away, and a frustrating lack of infrastructure, it'll be because the deal they made with devil upon joining the AL really is binding.

Like, once again, this is a first place team? Who, besides Yordan Alvarez or Jeremy Pena, is doing anything? What's going on here? Peter Lambert is the team's best pitcher, he has a 3 ERA, an 8-6 record and 111 strikeouts, it is perfectly fine but this team used to have Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole lead the rotation and now it's Peter Lambert and a still-rehabbing Hunter Brown and GOOD LUCK! Brown is doing fine, he's got a 3.68 ERA, and 67 Ks, but the dreams of a successful follow-up to 2025's breakout year have dissipated. This is fine, it's getting the job done, but it's been very human. Behind that you have Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier continuously getting chased and Hayden Wesneski doing alright enough for himself but still having a few question marks above him. I remember back when putting Cristian Javier and Ronel Blanco out there meant you'd get consistency and stability, not a 7 ERA. You cannot get first place in the AL West with these chuckleheads still trying to pass off down years. 

Then you have an outfield consisting of Cam Smith, who's got 16 homers and 44 RBIs despite a .226 average, Taylor Trammell, who's usually a bench bat at this rate but is now starting and hitting .233 with 7 homers and 20 RBIs, and Daulton Varsho, who hasn't done a great deal in Houston yet. All of Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Zach Cole, Lucas Spence and Brice Matthews are all chilling in the minors while this cobbled group of replacement level guys try and make it look like Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley and George Springer weren't all just here. 

The team's batting .244 as a unit, but I have no idea how much lower that would be if Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena weren't there, because DAMN. Yordan Alvarez is headed for an MVP right now, because he's got a triple crown in his sights. He's hitting .322, has 35 homers and 87 RBIs. Nobody else is on that level right now, and even if Aaron Judge were healthy, that would be THE mark right now. I'm not too salty to admit Yordan Alvarez is a league-wide talent, the dude's dangerous. But he's one of the few guys keeping this team in the race.

The Rangers and Mariners have both been winning lately, and look to be making this something of a foot race. The Astros are 2 games over .500 and trying desperately to get whatever momentum they can out of what they know to be a lesser iteration of the club. Like last year, they're trying to outrun themselves, and while I like to think I know how this goes...I don't think they'll go down without a fight.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most talented all-around athletes in the game right now, multifaceted and versatile...and just one of the many guys working to reopen the book on the story of the NL West this year.

Love Him or Hader

 

Remember when Josh Hader to Houston was supposed to be the kingmaker move? The kind of move that would ensure the Astros would stay in the hunt perpetually going forward despite the aging core and the loss of more and more key players? And instead, Hader might actually be one of the few things that have stayed consistent about the Astros since Joe Espada took over? 

The Astros are in second last now. I know people don't like when I do this, but it's very much by default. The A's have completely fallen apart, the Mariners refused to win more than one game in a crucial division series, the Rangers are in first by a thread but just lost Josh Jung. The Astros are under .500, still not entirely a threat, just lost Spencer Arrighetti and expect Peter Lambert and a rehabbing Hunter Brown to do all the work. This is a meritless second place. They won 5 straight and then Munetaka Murakami absolutely embarrassed them, and when the White Sox earn a win more than you, you're fooling a lot of people, including yourself. 

It's not like this is a completely bad team, because Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena represent the absolute best this lineup has to offer. This lineup was a lot better when you actually had George Springer, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel draped around them, but Alvarez is headed for MVP votes and Pena had a 2-homer day today, representing 2 of the 3 runs the Astros were able to score. Pena's total is now 11 homers and 30 RBIs in 58 games, very much doing a lot in a small amount of time. Same with Josh Hader, who was activated midyear, he's got 12 saves and a 1.35 ERA in 22 appearances, this is vintage Hader with no real troubles. Definitely a huge addition to a really rough bullpen with a broken Bryan Abreu and a lot of mostly okay performances.

'Broken' is a good word for a lot of these guys. Lance McCullers just got DFA'd by the Brewers because he didn't really have anything left. Cristian Javier has a 9.37 ERA and is struggling mightily. Ronel Blanco's gotten absolutely annihilated in both his starts back. Tatsuya Imai still hasn't fully figured out MLB pitching. Even Mike Burrows somehow couldn't handle pitching for a better team. Even if they keep worming their way up the standings, the lack of sturdy pitching will do the Astros in. Everyone is so tired. So exhausted. EVEN FRAMBER VALDEZ IS FATIGUED OVER IN DETROIT.

The Astros could still persist in the top of the AL West standings, and they may even make a run...but again, it's the case of an Astros team that refuses to realize that they are not capable of meeting the moment. This is not the team, and this is not the year. 

Coming Tomorrow- A future Hall of Famer having a very human season for the first time since his early 20s. 

Swallow This

 

How would you like this to be you. You toil in the majors for too long, struggle with injuries, make it over to a struggling Japanese league team, then do well enough to get an MLB contract with a decent team. Then the best player on your Japanese team comes over here to play for a last place team and then makes them a competitor, all while you're down in 4th. Peter Lambert must be going through it.

And it's not even like the 2025 Yakult Swallows were a bastion of baseball excellence or anything. The whole idea of Munetaka Murakami is a great player can make a bad team watchable, even if he doesn't always make them *good*. Aside from Lambert and Murakami, this team had some okay performances, and Domingo Santana trying his best, but like usual, they didn't compete. So to have them both over here and going in opposite directions is funny, especially considering that for a while they really weren't. The Sox didn't really conquer the AL Central until Murakami got hurt, before then he very much was lifting them. Currently Lambert is very much lifting the Astros, is their wins leader and ranks 4th in WAR. Very much the opposite of what both were after, and I guess one of them is relieved. 

Peter Lambert had instances of greatness with the Rockies, and definitely tried to make the most of pitching in Coors Field, but it just wasn't happening, and he never really broke through after his 2019 rookie season. So Japan happens, he does decently, and now he gets to play for the Astros. Lambert, in 14 games, currently has a 3.26 ERA, a 7-5 record, 74 Ks and a 1.150 WHIP, a very solid line. He is also...the best pitcher on this team right now. I remember when they brought him up I was really hesitant to embrace him, because I thought it was the Jason Alexander thing of 'we're bringing up a minor league also-ran cause he's all we have, now suddenly he's great'. That's always a 'oh screw you, Astros' thing for me, like if you can fix Peter Lambert then something's up. But no, he fixed himself in Japan, then came over here and ran the rotation. That's better honestly. 

The thing is...I don't think the intention was for all of this to be on Lambert. Hunter Brown is back now, he's carrying a little more, still pitching well, but Imai, Burrows, McCullers and Javier have all been disasters this year, and Spencer Arrighetti's beginning to fall apart as well. It's like the Nationals, where they got Foster Griffin to be the fifth man, and now he's kind of the 1st man and...I mean, there's your problem. The infrastructure should work so that someone like Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray or Mitchell Parker is actually up and doing their job and not making this the Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell show. The Astros, we just...ended up here. No disrespect to Lambert, who's making the most of a tough situation, but if he goes down again late in the year cause of the increased workload, it's on the Astros.

The Astros just got Jeremy Pena back, are in third but still under .500, and have to play the Rangers to finish out the first half. I don't think this team is competing this year, and I really hope I don't regret saying that.

Coming Tonight: He missed a few starts, came back stronger than ever and made an all-star team. That sound you hear is Zack Wheeler seething from across the country.

No Change Expected

 

There's an old Twilight Zone episode where a sort of cheesy western cowboy hero gets confronted by the real Jesse James for how he's portrayed on his show, and in the end works out a deal where him and his other western legends can be depicted on his show, but only if they beat the shit out of him. Like, alright, you can include Wild Bill Hicock, but only if he outshoots you and makes you look silly.

That is how I can contextualize the modern Astros. They were not penalized for cheating in the 2017 World Series, but their way of paying the piper is this atrophy. It is going around and playing all the teams they embarrassed to get titles and getting the snot beaten out of them. Obviously the Yanks had fun with them this year, but the A's, Mariners, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians have already notched big wins against them. They have more Tigers games this weekend, we'll see how that goes.

Honestly, in a year with off-peak Jose Altuve, an outfield of .220 hitters, a down year from Yainer Diaz, the two most crucial offseason pitching acquisitions being duds, Hunter Brown being advised to 'go easy out there', a bloated bullpen and barely any general depth....yeah, this is an expected outcome. I don't know what else to say, this is clearly a lesser team, they're trying everything but it's just not working, especially when the three top teams have actual depth.

There are two Astros lineup pieces that I would allow to see in next month's ASG rosters. Yordan Alvarez, who's close to the top vote-getting spot, and deservingly so because good lord, and Jeremy Pena. Even in limited at-bats, Pena has been excellent this year, hitting .284 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. The production has been much higher, and Pena himself has just felt more powerful than the old 'some skinny kid starting in Correa's place' we used to see. He's got a .451 SLG this year, closer to Christian Walker and Alvarez than usual. He's mixing his usual contact with more pop, and I think it's a very good combination. 

Other than that, man...I dunno. It's really hard to get excited about a team going with Peter Lambert as a good option. I get it, he spent a year in Japan, redid his whole motion or whatnot, but...I looked at his Yakult stats, and that's a 4.26 ERA with an 11-3 record. It's helped him get back under 4, he's got a 3.28 ERA now, but...I dunno, man. Arrighetti's for real, he's in 2024 form for sure. Hunter Brown's looking decent but, again, now that's he's missed time he's still in danger of missing more. There have been better rotations, much like there have been better lineups. 

So yeah, still very much an underwhelming time in Houston. I know this team has a habit of springing to life and scaring me when I think they're cooked, but...look, even last year's version of this team was better. And they all know it I think.

Coming Tonight: The Giants are hitting a lot more than they did at the beginning of this season. This guy has certainly helped. 

In No Way An Improvement

 Even as someone who dislikes the Astros, I can tell you that the core era of that team subsisted on a well-built youth movement, so many slam dunk prospects, deals made for people in their prime, and a solid backbone that could withstand departures. The 2026 Astros are the result of that era having run its course. And so without the generation that gave us Springer, Bregman, Cole, Valdez, Tucker and Brantley...this is a very okay baseball team. And I think FINALLY...they're done pretending they're not.

Beyond Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker, pretty much everything on this team is run-of-the-mill. If this was 2018, and they had a player of Isaac Paredes's caliber on a tear, it'd be going a lot better than this. Not that Paredes is playing badly, but...he's a .238 hitter with 8 homers and 28 RBIs. And even then, he's here for his power and all his home runs are pulled. They released a spray chart today, and the man's never launched a single opposite-field home run in his entire career. So they have an okay third baseman having an okay season being okay at the thing he's the best at...like, compare that to what Bregman was doing even in a down year. It's not even close. And somebody like Jake Meyers or Zach Dezenzo or Brice Mathews, doing the best they can but still winding up at replacement level...this is the level of local talent they have now. And compared to what Yordan Alvarez is doing, leading the league in homers and OPS and average and fitting firmly into the MVP conversation upton Judge's injury, it's even more pathetic. You can't run on a Jake Meyers season anymore when it's clear that Yordan Alvarez can lift a pinky and go yard.

The pitching isn't much better, because even the usual failsafes aren't working. They tried the 'let's bring up Jason Alexander' gambit again, and that didn't work this time around. Aside from Spencer Arrighetti, who's wonderful, this team has to trot out Mike Burrows and his 5.66 ERA, Tatsuya Imai and his occasional brilliance flanked by 6 run outings, Peter Lambert who's far too okay to be playing this great a role in this team, and Kai-Wei Teng, who's actually pretty decent but is being stretched out from a prior relief role and hopefully can stay healthy. The team's already lost Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are gonna be out for longer, and this unit is what they've got. For...what it is I guess it's alright, but this is the most anonymous Astros rotation since Bud Norris and Erik Bedard were the draws. Occasionally it works, but I don't know how sustainable it is, much like how I don't know how sustainable Christian Walker and Christian Vasquez are.

The Astros are firmly under .500, and are in fourth, but they do play the A's this weekend, and the A's rotation might have slightly more weak points. So it might be close. But if things continue at this rate, the Astros might be sellers at the deadline for the first time in nearly a decade, and that's an insane concept to consider.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who's had a monster hitting streak as of late, and took part in a huge blowout of the Cubs yesterday.

That's One Way to Debut

 

Imagine, for a second, that you have just been called up to the major leagues. The day you are up with the team, ready to debut out of the bullpen, your team is no-hitting the Texas Rangers. Keep in mind, the already came close to doing this earlier this month, Spencer Arrighetti had something going, but it didn't work out. Now a much less trustworthy pitcher's gone 6 strong, handed it to Steven Okert who went 1 strong...and now they are handing the ball to you. Your debut appearance will be attempting to complete a combined no-hitter in not only the away team's park...but the cross-state rival's park. So if you mess this up, it could haunt you for the rest of your life.

This was the conundrum put upon Alimber Santa last night in Arlington. 7 no-hit innings, now here you go. And then after 1 inning, the pitching coach tells you to stay out there. Josh Hader's still hurt, Bryan Abreu's not trustworthy, you're it. So now you have to face the top of the order in the bottom of the ninth and hope you get out of there with your dignity intact. 

Damn if Santa didn't handle it like a pro. 2 innings, 6 batters, all retired. And thus he gets to be the hero in his first MLB game ever. That's incredible. It's great for Tatsuya Imai, finally getting the hang of things over here, and for the oft-injured Okert, but Alimber Santa had to feel over the moon. This is the Astros in a nutshell, it's a well-oiled machine, and the people coming up, whoever they are, can probably inherit it. 

Obviously it's a little bit funny how Houston's still the no-no capital of baseball. They tried to stat twist, 'this is their first no-hitter since 2024'. Here's what you should have said. 'The Houston Astros have had a no-hitter in every season since 2022, except for 2025. They've had FIVE no-hitters in the past five seasons, one of them in the World Series. Hell, Christian Vasquez, who caught this one...he'd caught one BEFORE for the Astros! He caught the one in Game 4 of the World Series! So this isn't even new to him! 

Five no-hitters in 5 years- the Blue Jays haven't even thrown one since 1990! The Guardians haven't thrown one since 1981! Parker Messick got painstakingly close recently, and losing that one hurt. Don't give me that 'first since 2024' bullshit. 

It's very cool that this happened, and it's even cooler for Imai and Santa to be a part of this so early in their MLB careers. I'd love for some teams other than the Astros to figure out how to go all 9 without a hit. Cause without the Santa stat, it's hard to get excited about another Astros no-hitter. 

With Meatballs

 

So, what are the Astros without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Lance McCullers, Josh Hader or Cristian Javier? Well...beatable, for one.

It should not have taken an injury-depleted year to illuminate the desperation of this Astros team. This organization has been so good for so long at replenishing the well and keeping the firm train of young players going, but take out enough of the core and you see the team for what it is. A bunch of people who've never known a year without success, trying so hard to do the same things they've done the last seven or eight times and getting frustrated that nothing's working. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .300 with 15 homers and 31 RBIs and I think he's growing concerned that this isn't enough anymore. When you don't have Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel or even Altuve behind you, so much more is on you, and by that point the long ball isn't always enough.

Let's examine the rest of this lineup and see if we can spot the flaws. The outfield is young, which is impressive considering the rest of the lineup, but they're all honestly too young. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews and Zach Cole are all under 25, and have been tasked to keep the outfield afloat. Any help, such as Taylor Trammell, Joey Loperfido, or even the recently-activated Jake Meyers, seems ineffective. Meanwhile, Christian Vasquez is starting behind the plate everyday, and while he's doing alright for himself, he's coming off as little more than a replacement option. Same with Braden Shewmake, the former Braves prospect who made the team out of necessity, and is starting virtually everyday at 2nd. He's better than Brendan Rodgers, and is hitting .291 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in 19 games, but...is still very much a replacement option. The fact that it already feels like it's just Alvarez, Christian Walker and a bunch of scrubs isn't a great sign, especially since that's what it felt like at many points last year. Trammell was getting prime lineup space. It wasn't pretty.

The rotation's not terrific either. They're burning through starting options quickly, and are down to depth options. Peter Lambert, former Rockies prospect that I hadn't thought about in four years, has made 6 starts, and has 35 strikeouts- he's been a decent place filler. Tatsuya Imai, thought to be the kill switch in the offseason, has been awful, with an 8.31 ERA in 5 starts. It's gotten so dire that they're now stretching out former Giant Kai-Wei Teng as a starting option, and while it's sort of working so far, the fact that he may not have even been in the top 10 choices to start is pretty concerning. This is Reds levels of desperation.

Despite all of that, they have Mike Burrows and his 5.72 ERA, which...how is HE the one guy that stays healthy, and the return of Spencer Arrighetti. The man loves to strike people out, and he's been doing a lot of that so far, with 35 in 6 starts, plus a 5-1 record and a 1.50 ERA. His last start was looking like a no-hitter for a bit, until the Rangers got a hit literally the second I tuned in. In an era where the Astros can regularly be counted on for multiple young, lethal starting options, right now it's just Arrighetti. No rookies, at the moment, coming in to save the day...just replacement options. This is where we're at.

I assume that at some point people are gonna start coming back and the team will attempt to be good again, but you can only really put a bow on a team like this, you can't make it something else. The Phillies' issues at least could be fixed with a regime change. These are way more foundational, and way harder to come back from. But this is, at the end of the day, the Astros, and they do hate me, so we'll see how far they get this October.

[I'm joking, please don't actually be a playoff team this year.]

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants don't have a ton going on right now, but at least they have this guy.

Astros Update: So It's Come to This Edition

 

I don't know if this feels different than the usual Yankee series wins against the Astros...but this one felt pretty sweet. 

Cause typically, and I don't know if you know this, but...typically the Astros-Yankees series' are pretty evenly matched. Y'know, the Astros pull some shit, then the Yankees come back, it's back and forth. And even if the Yankees have had the better regular season luck the last few meetings, it's never easy. But now, and...let's be clear, I'm aware that Spencer Arrighetti and Christian Walker made the third game tougher for us. But like...

Okay. Listen. I've been waiting for an Astros team to give me absolutely nothing for SO LONG. And I'm genuinely psyched that we're here. 

Here's what the Astros are working with right now. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .355 with 38 hits, 26 RBIs and 11 homers, all of those leading the league. It's a herculean start for Alvarez, trying to reclaim momentum after a down season. In addition, Christian Walker's having a comeback year, hitting .291 with 23 RBIs and 7 homers, finally settling in after a rough first season in Houston. Spencer Arrighetti, since coming off the IL, has been 3-0, with a 2 ERA and 21 Ks. Carlos Correa has been terrific on defense filling in for Jeremy Pena, and is also hitting .280 in his usual, pedestrian manner. 

That's it. That's...really it honestly. They're in last place, 11-18, and struggling mightily. And Joe Espada has been trying to save face by going 'well it's the injuries', but...even with that in mind, there are a lot of major players, like Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Lance McCullers, Bryan Abreu and Enyel de los Santos who just aren't pulling their weight. You're also dealing with a past-his-prime Jose Altuve with 8 RBIs in 27 games, steps backwards from both Cam Smith and Brice Matthews, and just a messy lineup schematic in general. 

To be fair to Espada, the injuries have been pretty rough for this team. The starting pitching has been hit so hard that they're now on a rotation of McCullers, Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Peter Lambert (!!!) and an opener. They've already released J.P. France, demoted Colton Gordon and have, for some reason, yet to call on Jason Alexander, who's moonlighting in the Western Union ads Sugar Land. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Tatsuya Imai and Hayden Wesneski are all hurt. So cutting France and Luis Garcia now makes even LESS SENSE. Cause there's barely any room on the roster, and any potential call-ups need to be moved on purposefully. In past years, even with an injury-laden rotation, the Astros would have guys ready, in many cases Arrighetti or Gordon or someone. Now, they don't even have much of a bench, which is...why you don't trade Jake Bloss or Ryan Gusto. In addition, the majority of the outfield is hurt, meaning they either need to chance Alvarez's defense or throw a replacement level guy like Daniel Johnson (!!!!!) or Dustin Harris out there. Which is why you don't cut Chas McCormick. 

Every issue with this current iteration of the Astros seems self-inflicted, and the few guys playing well are coming off of rough, injury-plagued years. I don't know where they're headed. They've had worse starts than this and ended up in the playoffs. I kinda hope that random hot streak isn't enough to sink the AL West for them this time. I'd like to think the Mariners, A's and Rangers are good enough to keep that from happening this year, but...with this organization, can you ever be sure?

For now, though, I'll just take my Yanks series win and be happy. 

Coming Tomorrow- It takes a lot of panache to hit 2 home runs in your MLB debut and then insist you're more comfortable hitting for contact.

Don't Get Too Excited..

 

It's very easy to get to first in your division when you have to play the Angels and Red Sox and your opponent has to play the Yankees. 

I'm not ruling out the connotation that the Astros are a good team this year. The way the league works, any team can bounce back at any point, and the way the Astros organization is built, enough pieces can recover from an injury-lost year to make you forget it ever happened. This current Astros front office is so good at putting the exact correct people in position to succeed, and even if last year showed the limits of that [Jason Alexander, Brendan Rodgers, Jesus Sanchez], it's still completely attainable, and it prevents the Astros from ever being truly counted out, even if they're logically past their window. 

However. Even in a team that has begun the season 5-3, and has sole position of first in the AL East, there are visible signs that not everything is as solid as usual. And I generally mean the pitching.

Right now, the Astros' rotation consists of Hunter Brown, off to a terrific start, Lance McCullers, finally putting the injury period behind him, Mike Burrows, doing basically what he did in Pittsburgh, Cristian Javier, who may not be completely recovered from his injuries, and Tatsuya Imai, who got absolutely lit up in his first start. The bullpen is without Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu is nowhere near as dominant as he was last year, and it's been up to guys like A.J. Blubaugh and Kai-Wei Teng to be the difference makers. The team ERA is currently 5.45. If the team wasn't hitting .259 that'd stand out more.

Now, normally you can chalk a rough Opening Day rotation up to a large shelf of injured pitchers. But now you have to remember that Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia are all gone. The only actual injured starters at the moment are Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter and Hayden Wesneski. One can assume that Spencer Arrighetti is rehabbing in the minors and that's why he's not up with the team, but it's ideally just those three. Meaning Mike Burrows is your #3 man not because purely of circumstance...but because he really is the third best starter they've got right now. 

That really is gonna be what the question is this year: can the Astros truly compete without the luxury of having an elite pitching staff? Because the hitting, as it looks at the moment, won't be much of a concern. Yordan Alvarez is 100% back, his poor 2025 completely behind him, and he's hitting .400 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs already. Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Carlos Correa are all hitting again. The contact game is a little weak but the idea is that it'll get there, especially considering Cam Smith and Jake Meyers are still factors. There is a possibility that the lineup depth this team sported could also be diluted as well, and it may be down to a more power-centric focus than they've had in years. But right now they're coasting on Alvarez's success and hoping they can build out the rest. And if not, this will come down to how long the pitching can last. Because as good as Hunter Brown has been, he, like every other young pitcher, is a ticking timebomb headed towards the potential for an injury. It happened to Cade Horton, it could happen here.

The Astros' strong first week or so illuminates that they still intend to compete, and they still have some great assets. Those flaws are also very much on display, and if they don't have a plan to work around them, they could miss out on the playoffs for the second year in a row. And as much as I'd love to see that, I know this team's way too good to just let that happen.

Coming Tonight: Dude struck out 10 in his debut with a new team, years after being essentially written off by the league. Is...is he BACK?

The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Astros

 

For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros failed to make the playoffs. What a great thing to say after all the hell they've put me through. Stealing signs, making it to the end every year, beating both my teams, not getting penalized enough. And this year, they finish 87-75, after being one of the best teams in the AL during the middle months, and are taken out in the final moments of the season by a Tigers win. They absolutely collapsed in August and September, and saw the Mariners overtake them for the division and go deeper than they could have. It was, in a word, satisfying.

Now, would this have happened if the big pieces hadn't gotten injured? Maybe. You also have to remember that Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman left, and more might be leaving this offseason. And knowing how the Astros handled Tucker's injury last year, by downplaying it to the point of inaccurately leading fans on, seeing them do it again this year with Yordan Alvarez just confirms how much of a sinking ship this team is now. Plugging Jose Altuve into left field while giving his position to Brendan Rodgers, then getting confused when that doesn't work, and then panicking when Cooper Hummel sucks in left as well and Jesus Sanchez hits .199 there. MAYBE YOU SHOULDN'T PISS OFF YOUR LEFT FIELDER. He's gonna be making lots of money this offseason, as well Bregman, and if you'd have actually stayed on good terms with them it'd be for your team! Jeez!

Anyway, Yordan Alvarez only played 48 games this year, because he got hurt early, the injury was downplayed, he came back after the All-Star break and then got hurt again. So much is said about how well the Astros builds their organization, but not enough is said about how terribly they treat players once they're up. This could have been avoided, man. 

Alvy's year was...I mean I guess it was fine, for 48 games. Hit .273, 27 RBIs and only 6 homers. I reckon if he stays healthy and isn't screwed over by the team, they win that 88th game.

2026 Prediction: 2025 was the only full season of Alvarez's career that didn't give him over 30 homers. Next year will ensure this stays the case. An All-Star nod to follow.

Something else the Astros really don't like talking about is that since Yuli Gurriel left, they've had the absolute worst luck at 1st base. Similar to the Mariners' black hole at 2nd, the Astros have fired sure thing after sure thing into that position and they've all struggled. Trey Mancini gutter-balled, then Jose Abreu burned millions on a deal that could have gotten them the stars. And now it's Christian Walker's turn. The former Diamondback signed a pretty cool deal last offseason, for 3 years and 60 million, and the Astros must have forgotten the small detail that Walker was 33 when he signed it. This season was...certainly a season of baseball played by a 34-year-old. Despite barely missing any time, Walker was shockingly average, with the first under-average defensive work of his career, a negligible WAR figure and a career high 177 Ks. Granted, Walker also hit 27 homers and had 88 RBIs [the team leader in both!], but this was not his best work. He'd lost a dimension or so, and that's not what the Astros signed.

2026 Prediction: I'd like to think there's an improvement, but he'll be 35, and he's no Paul Goldschmidt. So there may be more of the same. The power numbers will be the same though.

After a phenomenal 2024, Ronel Blanco was one of several Houston starters, including Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Hayden Wesneski, to miss copious amounts of playing time this year. I think of that group, Blanco had the best sample size, and quality, while he was healthy, with a 4.10 ERA and 48 Ks in 9 starts. Unfortunately, the injury came right after I picked him up in fantasy, and that was his season.

2026 Prediction: Um...something tells me Hunter Brown might not make all his starts. So I figure Blanco will at least be healthy enough to make up the work for him. A much better season, if not 2024-first-half levels.

For the second time with Houston, Mauricio Dubon won a gold glove as a utility infielder. For someone who struggled to find a place with both the Brewers and Giants, it's been very cool to see Dubon come into his own as a super-ute, and in a year with SO MANY INFIELD INJURIES, there was no shortage of playing time for the guy. And of course, Dubon was exceptional in the field, with a 17 fWAR figure, and the occasional contact moment as well. Even if so much is in disarray for this team, the Astros can still rely on Dubon, which is fantastic [I drafted this in early November]. 

2026 Prediction: WELL APPARENTLY THE ASTROS DON'T NEED HIM THAT BADLY ANYMORE. I honestly think Atlanta's a great place for him. He can play the infield on a daily basis or be a utility piece like in Houston. Plus, with all the injury turnaround they might need him a lot.

Victor Caratini has become one of the more respected backup catchers in the game, alongside Austin Hedges and Jacob Stallings. Unlike those guys, Caratini was able to hit this year. In 114 games, Caratini hit .259 with 46 RBIs and 12 homers, which, in this cursed year, was the 6th most on the Astros. Caratini's a very good guy to have around, and he's found a nice home in Houston.

2026 Prediction: Houston re-signs him, he becomes defacto starter midyear, does well.

So here's the story with Brandon Walter. Dude went to UDel, was drafted by the Sox, mostly minor league guy, gets a taste in 2023. Keeps kicking around, gets cut by the Sox, the Astros pick him up. This year, due to the lack of healthy options, Walter, at 28, gets a shot, and does well in a starting role. In 9 games, he has a 3.35 ERA, 52 Ks, and a 1.3 WAR. Then he gets hurt and is out for the rest of the year. Not sure who's unluckier, him or the Astros.

2026 Prediction: Even if he does come back, he's like ninth in the depth chart. I see him mostly as a triple-A guy.

So then after that, with little to no other healthy options, the Astros go with career swingman Jason Alexander, brother of Scott and not, as previously assumed, the star of 'Dunston Checks In'. Alexander began the year as a middle relief guy in Sacramento, and after one too many heckle of 'SERENITY NOW' from one of the dozens of people in attendance, he was cut and picked up by Houston. Where he soon found himself...starting games. In all honesty, for a while Alexander was one of the Astros' best players. From July 29th to September 15th, all of Alexander's starts culminated in wins, only allowing a high of three runs in any of them. Of course, then he got clobbered by Seattle, and there went the 1st place hopes, but Alexander still finished the year with a 4-2 record and a 3.66 ERA.

2026 Prediction: Well, he SHOULD be kept as a long man and relief piece, but with the injury turnover in Houston who even knows at this point? You know we're LIVING IN A SOCIETY.

Aside from nabbing Carlos Correa at the deadline, the Astros also tried to solve their left field issue by bringing in Jesus Sanchez, who'd been good, if not world-destroying, for Miami. Sanchez had some high highs, with 12 RBIs and 4 homers in 48 games, but the .199 average, despite some decent defense, made it more of a puzzling add. Sanchez is fundamentally a good player, but he couldn't meet this moment for the Astros.

2026 Prediction: I think he mellows out a produces a better full-season effort but he still has the potential to be a Dan-Vogelbach-sized thorn in the side of a fanbase who are expecting the world of him.

With Chas McCormick no longer an option and Jake Meyers oft-injured, the Astros brought up Zach Cole to potentially be the next great Astros outfielder. In 15 games, Cole hit .255 with 11 RBIs and 4 homers. He's got a high contact ceiling and hit over .300 with the Space Cowboys. Might be something here.

2026 Prediction: If the Astros don't deal him for Brendan Donovan or somebody like that, he makes his way up the depth chart and is the next Kyle Tucker, something the Astros desperately need.

And most surprisingly, the Astros brought in Craig Kimbrel after he proved he was useful, if low on options, for the Braves. Kimbrel is 37, and I think he just needs some seasons out of the spotlight, a lot like Aroldis Chapman, so he can find himself again. In 13 games, Kimbrel had a 2.45 ERA and 16 Ks. Not as poisonous as his Orioles or Phils numbers, and a lower key year. I'm not sure if this is the last we'll see of Kimbrel in the bigs, but at least if that's the case he doesn't go out completely undignified. 

2026 Prediction: I think he makes camp with somebody, has some middle relief appearances and one last save. And then hangs it up.

Coming Tomorrow- The A's didn't make the playoffs either, but at least I can see what direction they're headed.

That's The Way it Stros

 

As it stands at the moment, the last spot in the AL playoff field will either go to the Detroit Tigers, who let a great season get away from them in a way that I completely empathize with them, or the Houston Astros. Both teams are working on getting through today with a win. The Astros rode Framber Valdez to a win over Oakland, and the Tigers are finally lighting the fire under their rear ends to strike back against the Guardians. Both teams are at 85 wins, both teams have a Cy Young candidate, and both teams had a fairly unlucky trade deadline. 

You can probably guess who I'm rooting for to snag that last spot. I'll give you a hint, it's not the Astros.

I feel like we're gonna be 10 or 20 years down the line, and the Astros will have been a losing team for a while with no future and no promise, and I'm still gonna root for them to lose. It's the same as the Patriots now. I don't want the Pats to get good again because for a good 20 years they were good, and in a way that directly antagonized my interests. That is the Astros as well. It's not that they were good constantly, it's that they were hot constantly and valued that over being good. The Astros have had some phenomenal teams over the past 10 years, and the two that won the Series' might not have even been the best ones. 2018 and 2019 were probably the fullest portrait of what this team was capable of, the Gerrit Cole years. After that, people started leaving and they tried to convince people they were still that good, and...I mean, they got one more ring out of it. Last year they were embarrassed by a team that got hotter than they ever could, and it was a worthy dethroning. 

This year...I've tried looking at this Astros team for a direction, or a unified idea, or anything, and it hasn't been there. A lot was hanging on Jake Meyers, and there was a big hole when he got hurt, but...Jake Meyers paled in comparison to the sort of people he's replaced. He's not George Springer, he's not Kyle Tucker, both are more valuable to their current teams than Meyers is to Houston. He's a .292 hitter, but in 104 games he's got 24 RBIs. He's very good defensively, he's very good on the basepaths, but he's not an offensive killer. And in a season where Alvarez is falling apart, Paredes is gone for half the year and Altuve is past his prime, you need at least someone who you can fall back on, and Meyers is not that guy.

The heroes for the Astros this year have been Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, Jason Alexander, Bryan Abreu, and ultimately Jeremy Pena, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. The depth is gone. There's depth pieces stepping into lead roles. Christian Walker, like Jose Abreu before him, was plugged into 1st to maintain the power numbers and it hasn't been pretty. Jesus Sanchez has been a disaster defensively. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie year but is hitting .239. The future is still stuttering on call-ups, and Zach Cole and Brice Mathews don't have it yet. 

Honestly, missing the playoffs would be the best thing to happen to the Astros, because for once this year they stop lying to themselves. They're not that team anymore. They don't have it. Maybe then they'd actually address some of their issues instead of trying to catch the wave and ride that. You can't catch any waves if your surfboard's caved in. 

Coming Tomorrow- A perennial threat from a team gearing up to shock the world again this fall.

You Can't Go Home

 

Storytime for any long time readers of the blog, and for those of you asking, yes, apparently this thing has longtime readers that didn't originate in a processing plant in Singapore.

Back in 2014, I was a freshman in college, and was still trying to make an attempt to follow baseball while also taking on multiple freshman classes, the expectation of a social life and various other ill-fated desires of an eighteen-year-old without much self-awareness. I've written off a lot of the blog's content before 2014, and I've also kinda written off some of its content during that freshman year, because my mind was so many other places. 

Which is why in September of 2014, I wrote a post, which I since deleted, about how the Baltimore Orioles, with a genuinely great team led by prime Manny Machado, prime Adam Jones and Chris Davis before he fell off a cliff, didn't deserve to be in first place, and the Yankees, with its contractual bloat and flux between eras under Girardi, did. I had the guise of someone coping with the fact that Jacoby Ellsbury, post-Braves Brian McCann and end of career Hiroki Kuroda weren't getting anyone a championship, and I was taking it out on the Orioles because I couldn't see why they were better. They just were. They nearly got to a World Series that year. And I had a handful of people telling me that I was wrong for saying the Orioles were only in 1st place 'by default', which I was. The Orioles earned it, the Yanks weren't there yet, it was obvious even then.

Why do I bring this up? Because knowing how damaging it can be to say that a team is in first place by default despite all of the effort put in to make that possible, it is my genuine opinion that the Houston Astros are only in first place right now because nobody is currently good enough to knock them off. It's not that they're better than the Mariners or Rangers. They're just better at winning when those other teams lose. It's not effort, it's luck.

The Astros have not had the team, and have had so many harbingers that the end is nigh. Jose Altuve is firmly past his prime, and like the team's other RBI/HR leader Christian Walker, he's not moving things forward statistically. Jason Alexander is having to start games, and the Astros are insanely lucky his ERA's below 4. Bryan Abreu is covering the ninth for Josh Hader, and you can tell it's not his preference. Alvarez and Meyers are trying to make up for lost time but it's slower than expected. 

Most of all, Carlos Correa has plugged into third base in place of Isaac Paredes, and it's a clear attempt to bring Astros fans back to 2017. The glory days are back, here's the old shortstop hero, look at him go. Correa is definitely a step up from where he was in Houston, he's hitting .305 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs, but...he's not really producing. He's a liability on fantasy because he barely scores you points. And he's only slightly above average statistically, a far cry from where he was. Correa is giving this team name recognition without giving it a surefire answer, a bandaid on an amputation. 

And so the Astros stay in first, despite dropping games to the Angels and Yankees. The Mariners, as discussed, have blown so many opportunities to inch up to the Astros in the standings, and it's really up to the Rangers now, as they have more matches against Houston this month. And I'm not even sure if the Rangers are even good enough to make that happen this year, despite the strides they've made in the past month. If anyone in this scrum has the best team, it's the Mariners, it just doesn't do what it's supposed to. So here we are, with two inferior teams battling it out for a division title because the Mariners have the worst luck in the last third of the season.

The Astros have some very good elements this year, like Jeremy Pena and Hunter Brown. It's not a full team effort. It's not a World Series team, and if they get there it'll be through the same annoying luck [or even cheating] that's gotten them there in years past. 

So there. The Astros are currently in first by default. If the Mariners or Rangers take 1st from them it'll be well deserved. Send any and all hate mail to rmanfred(at)mlb(dot)com

Coming Tonight: He had a blazing start with the Orioles, then carried that over to even more damage with San Diego.