Don't Sleep on the Royals

 

Most other teams would be discouraged by the fact that their 9 hitter was doing the most damage two weeks in. I think the Royals are just relieved that Kyle Isbel remembered how to hit in the first place.

Cause the idea that I got was that Isbel was a defense-first outfielder who stayed in the lineup in spite of his lack of hitting success. Always a low-ish WAR, not a ton of true offensive production, maybe an RBI here and there, but mostly just nice catches. Right now Isbel is hitting .478 with 5 RBIs and 2 homers, plus 11 hits overall in 7 games. He got to 11 hits in 13 less plate appearances than Maikel Garcia. Logic dictates this is a early surge that could disappear in time for Bobby Witt, Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino getting hot, but...it shows you that even the 9 guy can go nuts for this team. 

This is why you can never really count out the Royals under this current administration [I mean Quatraro, I'm not making a broader statement about anything else]. They've got crazy depth and a wide range of options. Kyle Isbel can swing in and go crazy on contact. Maikel Garcia can be the hero, as he has been frequently lately. Salvy Perez can still swing a bat, AND he can hold his own against the umps. The plan seems to be to platoon Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins til either one shows long term readiness, which I think works considering they've both shown a partial spark at least. They also have Starling Marte hanging about, and he can occasionally pitch in, when not being roped into a lineup when the usual DH option is oversleeping. 

The place where I see the depth running out might actually be the bullpen. Carlos Estevez is out, and Lucas Erceg is taking the closing assignments. It could be going a lot better. Only Nick Mears is showing any degree of dominance of this unit. Everybody else has been very human, and very ineffective. Even Matt Strahm, who I bet is missing Philly about now, is trying to get his ERA back below 4. The starting guys have been okay for the most part, despite the high home run totals [Michael Wacha just gave up one for Steven Kwan]. And I do think, if Bubic and Ragans and Lugo can stay healthy this year, they're playoff-caliber. But I just don't know if the pitching has the same level of depth as the hitting. They brought up Luinder Avila the other day to face the Brewers, and he got kinda chewed up by 'em. Ryan Bergert is waiting if need be, but there's not a lot of surefire guys lined up next, at least not yet.

Still, the Royals look decent, and if Witt really takes off this year they could go on a tear. I can already see some real strengths. We'll just see how far they can take these guys.

Coming Tomorrow- After years of trade rumors, the Cubs finally gave this guy the extension he deserves. Now the real work begins. 

Nothing Was The Same

 

To be perfectly honest, the Braves' first two weeks would have been a success if they'd gotten through without their top 4 bursting into flames, but starting 6-4 given everyone that's already been injured is a very good sign. They're without Schwellenbach, Strider and Waldrep, and Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, for a bit, and they have to proceed with a less confident rotation and a slightly compromised defensive schematic. It's a good thing they're the Atlanta Braves, though.

First of all, I owe Drake Baldwin an apology. Last year I was not convinced he would be in any way a non-negotiable factor for the league, as his rookie campaign was merely above-average to me rather than game-changing. I thought it was nonsensical for the Braves to go ahead with a new catcher considering that they already had Sean Murphy, and I simply thought Cade Horton was a more impactful addition to a roster. However, Cade Horton's missing time with some arm issues and Drake Baldwin is one of the most explosive hitters in the game right now. So at the moment it's looking like I was misinformed. Baldwin is currently hitting .300 with 4 homers and 12 RBIs, both league leading, and is far and away leading the Braves right now, in the stead of both Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, who haven't really started hitting yet. Even factoring in some of the usual suspects, like Matt Olson, and Michael Harris, Baldwin's accomplished the most for this offense so far.

But the organization's emphasis on stocking the deck has made for some excellent replacement-level decisions that are already benefitting the team. Mauricio Dubon was dealt by the Astros for reasons that are still somewhat hazy, but Kim's injury means he gets to start at shortstop everyday, and he's done an excellent job of that, while continuing his contact excellence from Houston. Dominic Smith was brought in as a potential bench option but has fielded the majority of DH starts, and has 2 home runs and a walk-off under his belt. Even Jorge Mateo is coming to life as a bench bat. This team is well-built enough to withstand lapses, which very much counters the excuse from 2025.

Now, the pitching is still sort of problematic, because without those young arms the back end of the rotation are guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez. But even they're not too bad. Elder's yet to allow an earned run this year, and has kept balls mostly in play. Perhaps his issues of the last two years are finally behind him? Holmes is also still pretty good, albeit not especially flashy. I think the goal is to eventually work Didier Fuentes up to starting, and he was decent in a long relief outing but evidently not ready yet. They at least have Chris Sale and Reynaldo Perez in excellent shape. Very much supports the theory that after pitching a full season of grade A work, most starters should likely take the following season off. 

The 'pen looks good, the depth is there, the production is there. There's a few guys in the lineup who aren't all the way back yet, but it's early. As it stands right now, the Braves are looking better than they have in a couple years, and may be a factor in the NL East again. Let's just see if they can keep it going.

Coming Tonight: When your #9 hitter is doing the brunt of the work, something needs to be reassessed. 

Fried 'Em And Weep

 

So, uh...guess who's 7-1 and holding onto the best record in baseball?

Let me get ahead of any attempts to delegitimize this, because you know people will try. The Yankees began the season playing the Giants, who have since taken games from the Padres and Mets, meaning they can contend with great teams. The Yankees then took two from the Mariners, themselves a very good team who aim to compete this year. And they're looking to sweep the Marlins, who, regardless of their very strong first week or so, are starting their worst starter, Chris Paddack, today. None of these have been gimmes, and many of these have been without great strides from Aaron Judge or Jazz Chisholm. 

The team is just good right now. Last night, they managed to battle back TWICE against a very crafty Marlins team, and got themselves out of trouble on multiple occasions. The lineup has enough clutch ability to stay in it, and Giancarlo Stanton, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham were all on hand to keep the game close and refuse an upset by the Marlins, who themselves were really fighting for it. Also, crucially, last night Ryan Weathers gave the team a rare okay starting performance, allowing 3 earned runs and 6 hits in 3.2 innings. And let's just check, for comparison's sake, how many runs Paddack gave up in his first start-OH THAT'S RIGHT, EIGHT! And two home runs! You know who's given up two runs? Will Warren. And he's the only Yankee so far to have given up any home runs. And...knowing Will Warren, that kinda tracks honestly. He does two things, he strikes people out and he gives up home runs. 

Max Fried is starting today, and so far he's been just about flawless. 2 starts, 5 hits, 2 walks, no earned runs. Guy's got a 0.9 WAR in early April. We signed this guy to be a solid high-to-mid rotation option, just get up and do the job for 32 starts, and he's exceeded even those expectations. At some point this season, we're gonna get Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon back, and possibly even Clarke Schmidt. And the fact that even before those contingency plans get here, a skeleton crew of Fried, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren has been near-flawless against some good teams...that is a good sign. I'm not saying we don't still need Cole and Rodon, but it makes any trepidation towards a period without them seem shortsighted in hindsight. 

Now, there are still issues, because of course there are. Some sloppy fielding, as one would expect. Ryan McMahon hasn't started hitting at all. Randal Grichuk's promotion seems to have been a mistake, and with both Dominguez and Jones on the 40-man it just seems like a way of leveraging service time. Camilo Doval and David Bednar need to get over their current yips, as the highs are very high but the runs are beginning to pile up. At some point Luis Gil is gonna need to swing in, and eventually something will need to be done with Weathers if he doesn't even out, or possibly even if he does. 

The A's should be relatively simple, but the Rays always know our number. I hope they can stay strong amidst this stretch, and keep this momentum going all year. Cause, again, the people we knew we'd be without haven't even gotten here yet and the team's still this good. Very promising.

Coming Tomorrow- One would have thought the Braves would have a Marcell Ozuna-shaped hole in their RBI numbers this year, and thanks to this guy....not really.

Just Long Enough to Come Back Around

 

The thing about Michael Soroka is that it was always a possibility that he would come back around to pitching like he did in 2019. That was always something that could happen, even if injuries, general struggles and control issues commenced ever since. It was just a matter of who would be the last team not to lose their patience. The Braves got tired of waiting, the White Sox, the Nationals, arguably the Cubs. So when the Diamondbacks signed the 28-year-old to a 1-year deal, it was as risky as it was for everyone else. Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn't. 

But when Michael Soroka's first start as a Diamondback broke Randy Johnson's record for the most strikeouts in a debut performance for Arizona...I think the D-Backs felt a lot better about themselves. Soroka is clearly high risk/high reward, but the reward sometimes can be sheer dominance. And it seems that Soroka is still capable of dominance. 

The Diamondbacks have gotten lucky in that respect a few times over this year. Aside from Soroka, the D-Backs have gotten two strong, scoreless starts from Eduardo Rodriguez, who struggled through injuries the first two years of the contract. They've gotten flawless work from Jonathan Loiasiga, who struggled to stay healthy in New York. They called up Jose Fernandez just in time for him to hit 2 homers in his debut. Even Zac Gallen, who's struggled the last few years, is returning to his former glory. The theme of this D-Backs team right now is 'we're alright with waiting, as long as what we're waiting for is worth it.' Soroka, Rodriguez and eventually Corbin Burnes will make up a backbone of this rotation, and it took the team not giving up on any of them. It'd be easy to give up on E-Rod, considering they just gave up on Jordan Montgomery. But the instincts to this team are still right, even if they're not blooming immediately.

This is the same team that has refused to trade Ketel Marte, didn't worry when Corbin Carroll had a hamate bone injury, allowed Merrill Kelly to leave only to re-sign him anyway, and are now stomaching yet another setback for Jordan Lawlar. They've got a plan. They just know it doesn't need to kick in immediately. And so they can enjoy the spoils even if, logically, they're playing for 2nd or 3rd.

So one of the spoils is this current matchup against the Braves. Michael Soroka is facing his former team, who is forced to start Bryce Elder due to trading away too many of their GOOD homegrown options. And as I write this he's been really strong. Only a handful of hits, an earned run, keeping it in the park. Bryce Elder, meanwhile, can't even make the easy out if it's handed to him. It'll be a cool upset if it happens, and it proves that the D-Backs have a surprising amount of early momentum. 

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically another former Braves starting pitcher they let go. This one's had a bit more consistent success, though.

Don't Get Too Excited..

 

It's very easy to get to first in your division when you have to play the Angels and Red Sox and your opponent has to play the Yankees. 

I'm not ruling out the connotation that the Astros are a good team this year. The way the league works, any team can bounce back at any point, and the way the Astros organization is built, enough pieces can recover from an injury-lost year to make you forget it ever happened. This current Astros front office is so good at putting the exact correct people in position to succeed, and even if last year showed the limits of that [Jason Alexander, Brendan Rodgers, Jesus Sanchez], it's still completely attainable, and it prevents the Astros from ever being truly counted out, even if they're logically past their window. 

However. Even in a team that has begun the season 5-3, and has sole position of first in the AL East, there are visible signs that not everything is as solid as usual. And I generally mean the pitching.

Right now, the Astros' rotation consists of Hunter Brown, off to a terrific start, Lance McCullers, finally putting the injury period behind him, Mike Burrows, doing basically what he did in Pittsburgh, Cristian Javier, who may not be completely recovered from his injuries, and Tatsuya Imai, who got absolutely lit up in his first start. The bullpen is without Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu is nowhere near as dominant as he was last year, and it's been up to guys like A.J. Blubaugh and Kai-Wei Teng to be the difference makers. The team ERA is currently 5.45. If the team wasn't hitting .259 that'd stand out more.

Now, normally you can chalk a rough Opening Day rotation up to a large shelf of injured pitchers. But now you have to remember that Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia are all gone. The only actual injured starters at the moment are Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter and Hayden Wesneski. One can assume that Spencer Arrighetti is rehabbing in the minors and that's why he's not up with the team, but it's ideally just those three. Meaning Mike Burrows is your #3 man not because purely of circumstance...but because he really is the third best starter they've got right now. 

That really is gonna be what the question is this year: can the Astros truly compete without the luxury of having an elite pitching staff? Because the hitting, as it looks at the moment, won't be much of a concern. Yordan Alvarez is 100% back, his poor 2025 completely behind him, and he's hitting .400 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs already. Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Carlos Correa are all hitting again. The contact game is a little weak but the idea is that it'll get there, especially considering Cam Smith and Jake Meyers are still factors. There is a possibility that the lineup depth this team sported could also be diluted as well, and it may be down to a more power-centric focus than they've had in years. But right now they're coasting on Alvarez's success and hoping they can build out the rest. And if not, this will come down to how long the pitching can last. Because as good as Hunter Brown has been, he, like every other young pitcher, is a ticking timebomb headed towards the potential for an injury. It happened to Cade Horton, it could happen here.

The Astros' strong first week or so illuminates that they still intend to compete, and they still have some great assets. Those flaws are also very much on display, and if they don't have a plan to work around them, they could miss out on the playoffs for the second year in a row. And as much as I'd love to see that, I know this team's way too good to just let that happen.

Coming Tonight: Dude struck out 10 in his debut with a new team, years after being essentially written off by the league. Is...is he BACK?

Worth the Extra Week?

 
Last week I wrote about the Pirates' at-the-time puzzling decision to hold Konnor Griffin back, despite the fact that everyone knew he wouldn't spend the whole season in Indianapolis. And I pointed to all the immediate successes of rookies and Opening Day call-ups. Then this week it became clear that the Pirates' infield options, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, weren't gonna cut it, and seeing as Griffin was ready and hitting well in Triple-A, they decided to just quit loafing about and promote the guy. Plus a surprise mega extension contract, which...I assume has made Paul Skenes feel great about himself.

And honestly? Part of me gets why they did this. Especially now that, even in that first week of major league play, a lot can happen.

First of all, from a promotional standpoint, bringing out Konnor Griffin in time for the home opener in Pittsburgh is a smart move. Attendance is already dwindling, that should rope people in for now. It also helps that the Pirates are actually winning games, and swiped some close matches from the Mets and Reds. You could make the case of 'well, with all the games we can win, we don't need the help', and that case makes no sense considering the comparison between two replacement level options and Griffin's potential numbers. It also sets up a continued April swell from a team who are slowly bringing on crucial pieces [and also Marcell Ozuna].

But...even in the case of an early, Opening Day call-up, something ridiculous could happen. A couple years ago Ke'Bryan Hayes got hurt almost immediately as the season began, and I believe it happened to Oneil Cruz as well. Logan O'Hoppe had a fantastic rookie campaign going a few years back only to be sidelined midway through April. And this week, Chase de Lauter's wonderful rookie campaign in Cleveland was tripped up by a foot injury. He's hit 4 homers in 6 games, been the hero in most of them, and now he's being moved to DH for the time being to not exacerbate the foot. 

It's also happened many times that someone has been called up as a sure bet and struggled at the MLB level. Remember Jackson Holliday's 2024 call-up, and how long it took him to figure out the majors, even resulting in a ride back to Norfolk and a ton of stories saying 'he's washed, there's no point, trade him for Tarik Skubal.' And last year he figured it out. Already this year, we've seen the Brewers call up Jeferson Quero then immediately send him down, the Marlins call up Deyvison de los Santos and demote him after hitting a hefty double, and the Mariners keep optioning Ryan Bliss. Some guys just aren't ready even when it looks like they are, or they simply just don't factor into the team's overall plan.

But at the same time, there's also the kinds of guys who come up and make you question why you even doubted them. Sal Stewart for Cincinnati is one of those guys. Last year they called him up for a stretch run, dude had 18 games and he made 'em count, hitting .255 with 5 homers and 8 RBIs. This year he got 1st base straight away, and he's been incredible, hitting .474 with 9 hits and 2 homers in 7 games. People had been calling Stewart a surefire success, and sure enough he feels like the kind of consistent, reliable contact hitter that the Reds had been missing after Joey Votto's retirement. Even in a crowded division, Stewart have given the Reds another crucial piece to get them closer to a perennial playoff experience. 

Konnor Griffin could be that guy for the Pirates. I think they're prepared for either outcome, either he's a Skenes type and it's perfect immediately or he's a Henry Davis type and he's gotta figure himself out for a bit before the magic happens. Still, the sky's the limit at this point.

Coming Tomorrow- I think my skin cleared up a bit in a season without this guy being good at baseball. Oh well, right?

Do My Eyes Deceive Me?

 

Every year, in addition to the teams we figure are gonna do well, there's always one that has a strong start that nobody is expecting to. A couple years ago the Pirates were one of the best teams in April, and then a joke by June. Last May the Twins had a ridiculous winning streak and by July the Pohlads decided it wasn't sustainable. I like to think, at this point, that I know the difference between the start of something beautiful [the 2015 Mets in April] or a complete mirage [the 2013 Brewers]. 

But I'm looking at this Marlins team right now and I don't know what I believe. Yes, it is more likely than not that the Braves, Mets and Phillies will come storming back and control the division like everyone is expecting them to. But the Marlins...look good. I know they played the Rockies in the first series and have had to play the White Sox this week, but even if it is against bad teams, this is a more confident, well-assembled Marlins team. Clearly.

There's so many pieces of this team that, in 2025, were thought as perfunctory or auxiliary pieces, and those guys are now plugged into this team firmly. Javier Sanoja seems to have a permanent infield position and is hitting .583. Liam Hicks is no longer a fledgling backup catcher and now he currently leads the league in RBIs with 12. Janson Junk was a swing guy who took a few starts when the Marlins had no options, and now he's a trusty fifth man who does what he's supposed to. Additionally, there was a spot on this team to fit Owen Caissie [perpetually blocked behind PCA and co], and he's been tremendous in Miami, hitting .350 with 8 RBIs. I do think about what the outfield is gonna look like when Kyle Stowers gets back, and how he, Caissie and Jakob Marsee could form a pretty powerful unit out there.

The new factors of this team are also reestablishing just how well-ironed some of the preexisting aspects are. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez, their first couple years in Miami, felt like potential place-filler options until better guys came along, and as something resembling elder statesmen on this team, they still have a big role to play. Edwards's contact game has been sharp, as he's currently hitting .409 with a steal. Lopez is hitting .318 and has a homer. Sandy Alcantara is back to his old self, 2-0 with no earned runs and 12 Ks through his first 2 starts. There's a chance some may be dealt later on this year, but knowing how impressive the youth movement is on this team, it could just be for all the right reasons. Besides, considering how ready Deyvison de los Santos looks for the majors, I kinda wish for any sort of move to justify bringing him back up.

The real test for this Marlins team will be how they do against the Yankees this weekend. There's a good team with a much fuller lineup and a much scarier pitching staff. Can they show they can be a spoiler, even this early? Or will this go...just about as well as everyone's thinking it will?

Coming Tomorrow- A guy that made a postseason roster, than an Opening Day roster, then he hit a ton of home runs.