Nothing Was The Same

 

To be perfectly honest, the Braves' first two weeks would have been a success if they'd gotten through without their top 4 bursting into flames, but starting 6-4 given everyone that's already been injured is a very good sign. They're without Schwellenbach, Strider and Waldrep, and Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, for a bit, and they have to proceed with a less confident rotation and a slightly compromised defensive schematic. It's a good thing they're the Atlanta Braves, though.

First of all, I owe Drake Baldwin an apology. Last year I was not convinced he would be in any way a non-negotiable factor for the league, as his rookie campaign was merely above-average to me rather than game-changing. I thought it was nonsensical for the Braves to go ahead with a new catcher considering that they already had Sean Murphy, and I simply thought Cade Horton was a more impactful addition to a roster. However, Cade Horton's missing time with some arm issues and Drake Baldwin is one of the most explosive hitters in the game right now. So at the moment it's looking like I was misinformed. Baldwin is currently hitting .300 with 4 homers and 12 RBIs, both league leading, and is far and away leading the Braves right now, in the stead of both Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, who haven't really started hitting yet. Even factoring in some of the usual suspects, like Matt Olson, and Michael Harris, Baldwin's accomplished the most for this offense so far.

But the organization's emphasis on stocking the deck has made for some excellent replacement-level decisions that are already benefitting the team. Mauricio Dubon was dealt by the Astros for reasons that are still somewhat hazy, but Kim's injury means he gets to start at shortstop everyday, and he's done an excellent job of that, while continuing his contact excellence from Houston. Dominic Smith was brought in as a potential bench option but has fielded the majority of DH starts, and has 2 home runs and a walk-off under his belt. Even Jorge Mateo is coming to life as a bench bat. This team is well-built enough to withstand lapses, which very much counters the excuse from 2025.

Now, the pitching is still sort of problematic, because without those young arms the back end of the rotation are guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez. But even they're not too bad. Elder's yet to allow an earned run this year, and has kept balls mostly in play. Perhaps his issues of the last two years are finally behind him? Holmes is also still pretty good, albeit not especially flashy. I think the goal is to eventually work Didier Fuentes up to starting, and he was decent in a long relief outing but evidently not ready yet. They at least have Chris Sale and Reynaldo Perez in excellent shape. Very much supports the theory that after pitching a full season of grade A work, most starters should likely take the following season off. 

The 'pen looks good, the depth is there, the production is there. There's a few guys in the lineup who aren't all the way back yet, but it's early. As it stands right now, the Braves are looking better than they have in a couple years, and may be a factor in the NL East again. Let's just see if they can keep it going.

Coming Tonight: When your #9 hitter is doing the brunt of the work, something needs to be reassessed. 

Rookies of the Year: Sentimental Value

 

Just because I called both of these doesn't mean that I agree with them.

Of any of these awards, the Rookie of the Year award is the most likely to vex me, because the MLB has managed to make so many rules to classify what makes a 'great rookie', which they don't always follow. Like, a rookie can debut midway through the year and not get a Topps rookie card until the following year yet still qualify for the award, yet if they appear in games in one season that isn't full and make a definitive impact while they're there, they can't qualify. Luis Gil and Randy Arozarena did not deserve Rookie of the Year awards because they weren't rookies. Luckily, both Nick Kurtz and Drake Baldwin made the cutoff for Topps Update, and played almost the entire season in the majors, so there's no loopholes or anything there.

It really comes down to nuance. Can you definitively say that this player made the most impact of any first-year player in the league? One of these, I say absolutely. The other is more complicated. 

Nick Kurtz is the one I agree with, because for a month and a half he was one of the single best hitters in baseball, and finished the year with a 1.002 OPS. Kurtz hit 36 home runs and 86 RBIs in 117 games, the majority of those homers coming in an unbelievable midyear stretch. Said stretch also included an absolutely wild four-homer game against the Astros. The A's are a rebuilding team putting down a ton of great young players they can build on, and Kurtz is absolutely one of them. It's even to the point where Kurtz lapped Jacob Wilson, an early-season ROY candidate who started the All-Star game for the AL but struggled after getting hurt in said game. Wilson and Kurtz were both important to the A's season, but Kurtz is the next step for the A's towards competing again, and you can see it already. So him I completely agree with. That's absolutely the Rookie of the Year in the AL.

It's Drake Baldwin that is confusing me. Because I don't know what he really represents in regards to shifting the story of the season.

Let's look at Drake Baldwin in context of the 2025 Atlanta Braves. Baldwin is the 3rd-best Brave statistically, after Matt Olson and Chris Sale. Sale was limited by injuries for about a month or so. The majority of the Braves that would have lapped Baldwin's 3.3 WAR, such as Ronald Acuna, Spencer Schwellenbach or even Jurickson Profar, Reynaldo Lopez or Spencer Strider, were all limited by injuries. Most crucially, the team's starting catcher, Sean Murphy, who is the highest paid catcher in baseball by the way, missed some time due to injuries early, then only hit .194 the rest of the season, despite continuing to be an excellent defensive catcher. 

It comes down to this: if the Braves do not have an absolutely cursed year, Drake Baldwin does not get chances to start, and does not become a major player for this team. Further, even with the opportunities given to him during this cursed season, Drake Baldwin was only an ensemble piece of this Braves team. The Braves were not the Drake Baldwin show this season, like the A's were the Nick Kurtz show, because the Braves still relied on Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Grant Holmes, Michael Harris and Hurston Waldrep. Baldwin was, at the very least, reliable, hitting .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBIs, with slightly-below-average defensive numbers. He was a solid piece of a Braves team that was doomed from the start, and Baldwin made them only slightly less doomed than they already were. Considering the fact that Sean Murphy is still on this team, and is better defensively, I genuinely do not know if the Braves will get 5 to 10 more years of Drake Baldwin behind the plate, or even if that's something they want.

To me, the NL's Rookie of the Year this year was Cade Horton. Dude popped into the Chicago rotation midyear, went on an incredible run, became one of their most indispensable pitchers, and made them the low-key wild card juggernaut they became. To the point where they honestly struggled without him in the playoffs. Cade Horton is a big piece of why the Cubs made the playoffs, and a big piece of why they didn't make it to the World Series is that Cade Horton wasn't there every three games. That guy made or broke a season of a major competitor, and that's a more accurate ROY to me. Baldwin was very good for a mediocre team, and took full advantage of the opportunity given to him. 

I knew he'd win Rookie of the Year because sportswriters love that sentimental stuff. Baldwin appeals to the idea in many writers' association guys' heads of 'the guy that pops in unexpectedly and saves the team'. And they don't think it through enough to ask if he really actually saved the team. The people who voted Drake Baldwin to win the Rookie of the Year fell in love with the idea of Drake Baldwin over what Drake Baldwin actually was. And yes, there are lots of Braves fans who can speak to how Baldwin excelled this year, and how he was one of their best pieces, but even they'll admit that he has his limitations, and even they'll admit that they're not sure how much of a ceiling he has. So it's really a vexing outcome.

I could be very wrong, and Cade Horton could be the flash in the pan I was thinking Baldwin would be. But just from where I'm sitting, I think this is a move that won't age well. Still, congrats to both winners. May the glory never end. 

How to be a 'Rookie Star'

 

Midway through the season and already people are trying to figure out who's going to be crowned Rookie of the Year at the end of the season. Now, the AL race is looking pretty won at the moment, with Jacob Wilson having a truly great season, let alone rookie season, but the NL is where things get a little funny. Because sometimes, a guy gets crowned rookie of the year on the wings of a fluke season that may be their best MLB achievement. It happened with Kyle Lewis, it happened with Chris Coghlan, and it happened with Bob Hamelin. And while it's so difficult sometimes to pinpoint when someone is good for now rather than good for the long run, sometimes you can tell. Wilson looks like he's just gonna be a .300 guy for a while. 

But...I'm sorry, I risk my own already-dwindling credibility in saying this, but I just do not see the appeal of Drake Baldwin. I don't.

Drake Baldwin is 24 years old, made his rookie debut for the Braves on Opening Day of this year, and has continued to baffle me in every game since. Mainly, I cannot tell what purpose Drake Baldwin is supposed to serve. He made the roster as a backup catching option for Sean Murphy, a role he still continues to mostly serve. He's played in 5 more games than Murphy yet has 9 less at-bats. He's hitting .279 with 11 homers and 32 RBIs, figures that have been topped by Murphy's 16 homers and 38 RBIs. He's comparable as a batter to Murphy yet Murphy remains the better defensive catcher by a large margin. He's mostly a contact bat with the occasional power perk, yet his .830 OPS is as high as Matt Olson's. I genuinely do not know what the takeaway from Baldwin is. He's a decent enough hitter statistically but people are acting like he's running the team. 

Everything about the season Baldwin is having thus far is screaming 'nothing special' to me, and to that end I lump him in with the rest of the Braves, who are also having a sort of lower-key year. Yet I think Baldwin is seriously leading the ROY conversations right now. I don't understand why the prevailing idea is to reward a season that wouldn't get MVP votes if Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman came out with it. You want to give it to a rookie that felt like a big story from the year, who helped to change the narrative behind a team or a division. Drake Baldwin's just another Atlanta Brave, and I think he's just gonna amount to a helpful backup option down the line.

Now, with all of that said, we must also discuss Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers' most lethal pitching prospect, a guy who can stymie the Dodgers and outduel Paul Skenes, and a guy who Topps must be very thankful came up after their cutoff for 2025. The Miz has been dealing like never before, and is 4-1 in his first 5 starts, with a 2.81 ERA and 33 Ks. These deadly June numbers have resulted in an unprecedented All-Star nomination for Misiorowski, which has been met with disdain from several Phillies players who believe that their pitchers should have been given the opportunity, perhaps unaware that when given the opportunity, both Phillies pitchers turned it down because, as discussed, nobody wants to play in the All-Star Game this year. 

And look. Ultimately, deep down, I think the Miz deserves this kind of recognition. Did it make more sense when Skenes got it last year, absolutely. But Misiorowski, in 5 games, has not only shown dominance, he's shown it in big-game situations against great teams. He's also been one of the chief factors in the Brewers returning to prominence and becoming a competitor again. The Brewers have tried a lot of rookies this year, including Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Craig Yoho and Carlos Rodriguez, and Miz was the one that worked. At least as far as the rotation is concerned- Durbin and Collins both have some interesting rookie stories themselves.

Misiorowski getting an All-Star nod is very hasty, but I get the mentality that made it happen. Now, if he keeps it up, a Rookie of the Year case might also be in order. But we'll see how Drake Baldwin does in the second half, I guess.