deMystified

 

Well, we were due. A positively average season from probable future Hall of Famer Jacob deGrom. After years of lights-out work, it was bound to happen eventually.

Like Paul Skenes' more comparatively-average 2026, deGrom, on paper, isn't doing too badly. He's 7-5, has a 3.48 ERA, 115 Ks, a 0.993 WHIP. One of the best pitchers on the Rangers, and pretty healthy to boot. But considering what we've seen deGrom do, it does feel like a step down. The last time deGrom had a season with an ERA over 3.10 was 2017, where he had a bloated 3.53 ERA, while notching 15 wins and getting a 4.2 WAR. To him, those are scary numbers. Everybody else would kill for a season like that. 2018-2021, deGrom goes to work, winning 2 Cy Youngs, leading the league in ERA in 2018 with a 1.70, striking out nearly everyone, and eventually getting a bit injury-hampered. But even while he was fighting injuries, deGrom still had a 2.50 or a 1.50 ERA. Which made last year's return to form, with a 2.97 ERA, all the more exciting. 

So here are some things that are true. deGrom, in 2026, is on pace to eclipse his 2025 strikeout total of 185. The Rangers are improving, so there's a chance that his ERA could drop as the second half rages on. This could end up being another banner year for the legendary starter. But even if all of those things happen, this will still go down as one of the most pedestrian seasons of his career. Considering that he just turned 38, it's understandable. I still blame the Mets for not calling him up til he was 26. Yes, he missed all of 2011 recovering from surgery, but he could have seen time in 2013. Harvey was out, it'd have timed up. But alas. 

The less-distressing news, I suppose, is that an average deGrom season is happening in a season of many average years for this Rangers team. Nathan Eovaldi, despite 9 wins and 110 Ks, has a 4.02 ERA that he's been trying to get down since a disastrous first month and a half. MacKenzie Gore, gotten for his velocity, is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA. Corey Seager's been on and off the IL, and has hit .182 when healthy. Wyatt Langford's also been back and forth from the IL. Even Josh Smith is having a rough year. The team is now in 2nd in the AL West, ahead of the A's, but they're only one game over .500. They had a really good week last week, and while that can be leverage for a bit, we don't know if it's sustainable, especially for a scattered lineup that's relying on Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and a non ironically great Josh Jung season at the moment.

I don't think the Rangers will be sellers later this month, they're on the cusp of 'good'. If they sell anyone it'll be someone disposable, a reliever here or there. They might even buy, who knows. I just don't see this team, which isn't even the best version of this kind of Rangers team, going especially deep. But at least deGrom's healthy and doing his best.

Coming Tonight: One of the best hitters on the Padres right now. Hold your applause.