Thursday, July 2, 2026

Fred Over Heels

 


Realistically, there probably aren't going to be a lot of new members of the 3000 hit club in the next decade or so. The time of people shooting for 200 hits instead of 50 homers and 200 strikeouts is over, and it's made it difficult for career hits totals to keep stacking up over time. Pujols, Ichiro and Cabrera got past the mark because the 2000s still valued contact hitting. Freddie Freeman has over 2500 hits, and is theoretically young enough, and in enough of a peak period, to cross that threshold. But he's also 36, and he only has one more year on his contract. Plus, even if he doesn't get to 3000 hits, Freeman's still a Hall of Famer. It's obvious now, and the 2024 World Series cemented that case. The 3000th hit would just be frosting rather than the key to entry.

This mostly says a lot about just how great Freddie Freeman's been for his whole career. There's only one season in sixteen full ones that ended with a WAR total lower than 2, and that was Freeman's 2011 rookie campaign, where he hit 21 homers with 76 RBIs and a .282 average. Literally every other season has been a 2 or higher WAR, with five seasons reaching 5 WAR or higher. Every season since 2013, Freeman's sported an .800 OPS or higher, and his lowest batting average in this period was a .276 average in 2015. Freeman is classic in the sense that in an era where nobody really has a reason to hit .300, he consistently does so and in a way that really helps whatever team he's on. The Dodgers picking him up in 2022 really was perfectly timed, and since then Freeman's continued to give his absolute all, with four straight All-Star Game nominations [followed swiftly by a fifth very shortly]. Where many people figured Freeman would start trailing off, he's stayed consistent, and is still a very crucial piece of the Dodgers' offensive output.

Right now, Freeman has a .293 average, 13 homers, 46 RBIs and a 2.6 WAR. Which is very good. And yet because this team has Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages and Max Muncy on it, it may look comparatively pedestrian. Pages is having an incredible year, with a league-leading 60 RBIs. Ohtani's got 18 homers and 50 RBIs, and he's going 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in addition. Muncy's got 17 homers and 37 RBIs, and might be starting an ASG along with Freeman. That's your core, that's your central guys...and that doesn't even include Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, who are both having down years, Will Smith, who's hurt, or Teoscar Hernandez, who was just activated from the IL. The team is that good, and Freeman is both crucial and taken for granted at the same time.

Not a ton of flaws from this Dodgers team recently. Maybe Sheehan and Sasaki could be doing a little better, but when the top 3 are Ohtani, Yamamoto and Wrobleski, and Eric Lauer's hanging out as a very sharp 6th guy, it's not the biggest issue. 

The Dodgers have to play the Padres this weekend. If you've been around the last few years, you know what this means. The Padres are 12 games behind LA this time, so it's not like a 'if they sweep, they take the division' situation like the last few Padres-Dodgers series'. Basically, every time the Padres are getting good, they have to play the Dodgers and can't capitalize. But here the Padres have nothing to capitalize on so maybe they'll actually win.

Coming Tonight: Shane McClanahan, I'm sorry, but you might not be the ace in Tampa anymore. That is, unless the Rays decide to trade this guy very soon.

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