Friday, October 16, 2026

Championship Series' Day 5: Seed Change

 

We haven't had a buildup to a World Series appearance like this since 2016. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have made the NLCS four times since 2010, which is more than they had in their entire history to that point. They had a tremendous team in 2011 that ran the NL Central on the backs of Braun and Fielder, the culmination of a five year build, then took the Dodgers to Game 7 in 2018 only to lose anyway, then got swept last year without a fight. And in this time, I can count a handful of seasons where the Brewers had a genuinely great team but failed to capitalize. The 2014 team, which for a while was the best in the NL but ran out of steam in the second half and paved the way for the Cardinals to take the division. The 2023 and 2024 teams, which were good enough to compete but still got bounced in the wild card round either way. Arguably even the 1992 team, which won 92 games but got outweighed for a playoff spot. There have been so many missed opportunities, so many 'so close' finishes, so many great regular seasons that led to a disappointing playoff exit. 

So when this specific Brewers team won 103 games, notched a first seed spot and looked to take on the league, I hoped that the same thing wouldn't happen again. So many Brewers teams have deserved a strong finish but never seemed to pull it off. This team, as good as they were, could be the latest, especially with the inevitability of a run-in with LA.

Well...tonight, the Brewers finished off a 4-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers, marked with two road wins, and two epic comebacks. They used contact flair to subdue the Dodgers' bullpen, and had hero moments come from Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell and, yes, David Hamilton, the utility man they got from the Red Sox in exchange for Caleb Durbin, who had the RBI single that started the rally and the solo homer that padded the lead. A team where someone like David Hamilton, or Aaron Ashby, or Jojo Romero, can be the hero, beating the Los Angeles Dodgers on a night where Shohei Ohtani hit a 3-run home run...that is something special. They've done it like this all season, and it's translated to October success. 

I'm really excited to see this team in a World Series. Chourio, Miz, Contreras, Turang, Bauers and Henderson could continue their strong Octobers and become definite franchise legends. I see them winning against either AL team, especially if they made quick work of LA this week. Genuinely heartened to see this team triumph, hope there's more to come.

The Dodgers...I mean, the last thing you can say about this Dodgers team is that they didn't try. This whole threepeat quest has come from an amount of effort that virtually no other team has, and a collection of talent that practically always does what they're supposed to. This is a team built for long term October success the way few others even dream of. The ability to have Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Andy Pages, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman on the same team, all working hard enough to make titles happen, is surprisingly rare in this climate of 'well if we fill seats and sell merch it doesn't matter whether or not we win'. Most teams are fine running a business rather than running a ball club, the Dodgers can do both successfully.

They built this team for a third title. They got Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz, and then they got Tarik Skubal. They did everything to make this happen. That it didn't is no fault of theirs, and mostly the fault of general MLB atrophy. Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and, yes, Tucker, were all bound to have down seasons eventually. Ohtani, by the end of the season, wasn't pitching and was struggling at the plate. Betts and Freeman are good but not elite anymore. They got to both Yamamoto and Snell, and eventually Glasnow. And Kyle Tucker had a perfectly mediocre season that finally got going in the first month, and gelled into a .300 October with some helpful contact hits tonight. That none of them ever got him home is more the fault of the rest of the team. Same with Edwin Diaz putting his all into a 3-inning relief appearance only to end up padding the Brewers' lead anyway. Even the best of effort still isn't enough sometimes. So now you know how the other 29 teams have felt the last few seasons.

The Dodgers will certainly be back. The rumor is they want to restructure Tucker's contract, and while they're definitely gonna make an effort to sign Skubal, will he want to stay in LA, especially if they're not a proven championship team anymore? They still have the big guns, but how will Freeman, Hernandez, Betts, Muncy and Snell even look next year? Will it really be on Andy Pages and Josue de Paula to keep things moving? Or will it be another business as usual season with yet another World Series appearance? All of this assuming the owners actually let us find out by the way.

People won't want to hear it, but the Dodgers losing here was the right outcome. They're not done, but this wasn't their best team, and if they'd made it to the end anyway with it, it wouldn't really be fair.

There was another game played as well today, and this was somehow the more cut-and-dry one. Solid enough stuff from both teams, but the game came down to Petey Halpin, the defensive center field option, hitting a 2-run home run off of Rays fifth starter Griffin Jax. No wonder they pushed this up to 1. The other series is 'Jackson Chourio hitting a home run off Blake Snell in LA', this is 'welcome to Cleveland, y'wanna watch Steven Kwan rob Richie Palacios of a triple?' It's much different. NOT BAD. This is still fun and I want it to go all 7, which it might. But I can see why the league is downplaying it. 

The Guardians have gotten 2 wins from the toughest team in the AL, and have done it on the backs of Gavin Williams, who struck out everybody, and Foster Griffin, who banked more on leverage. The Guardians are probably throwing out Tanner Bibee tomorrow, while the Rays might go to Nick Martinez. Very soon, the Rays are gonna be out of viable starting arms, while the Guards could very easily go with Joey Cantillo without much issue. All that remains is for the Guardians to keep outhitting this Rays team, which is still difficult considering Simpson and Mesa still had some things to say today.

But...the Guardians held the Rays, known for their contact magic, to three hits today. That's huge. It can be done. I'm not sure if it can be done two more times before the Rays have their say, but it can be done.

Obviously I'd prefer the Guardians to take this one, but if the Rays can do it and we get a battle of the 1 seeds, that'll still make a pretty exciting World Series, so at this point I can't lose.

No comments:

Post a Comment