Drawbacks of an Itchy Trigger Finger

 

Guys...the Angels have won three games since the deadline. And lost 9. Now, I'm not saying they should have traded Ohtani, I'm not saying they should have completely mailed it in...but getting Giolito, Lopez, Leone, Cron and Grichuk, and having only the relievers actually doing anything...might be a sign that going for it may not have been the best idea.

For a while, I was actually a fan of the Angels' approach, especially when they got Eduardo Escobar and Mike Moustakas as bench bats, y'know, back when the team was good. Moose is actually still hitting pretty well, he's got a .268 average, 24 RBIs and 7 homers in 35 games, and it's really the most he's offered a team since leaving Milwaukee. But the more you look at these moves, the more you realize what they're really for: a hail mary to save the ailing core of the team. Brandon Drury is the only survivor of the Opening Day infield; Walsh is gone, Fletcher's in the minors and Rendon's injured again. Even Zach Neto, who was having a nice rookie year, is hurt again. So that means the reinforcements are in, and that Luis Rengifo, the usual 'break in case of emergency' infield choice, and Andrew Velaszquez, last year's starting shortstop, are up and working. Of the two of them, Rengifo at least has his moments at the plate.

And honestly, the team's own youth movement hasn't exactly been helping the cause itself. Both Michael Stefanic and Trey Cabbage fell off after a week or so, and are back in the minors. Logan O'Hoppe was having a terrific rookie year but he's gone for the rest of the season. Jordyn Adams, a long-gestating first-rounder, is up and hasn't done anything yet. Even Livan Soto, who impressed in 20 games last September, couldn't get anything done during a brief call-up. So I get why they went for the veterans. But the veterans aren't doing much either. And that's really disappointing.

Many of this season's feel good stories, such as Carlos Estevez soaring in the ninth, Canning and Sandoval getting having strong stretches, and Taylor Ward once again impressing at the plate, have all subsided, leaving only Ohtani and his inevitable MVP season. And I hate that after all of this, it's gonna be just about Ohtani. I hate that no matter how hard they try, they just can't develop this team into a decent defender. Maybe it'll be easier once Ohtani's gone, and they actually have space to build a younger team. Because this model continues to not work, and it may be time for a different approach. 

The Mariners are now the quirky AL West wild card favorites people can get behind to potentially lap Houston. The Angels can't even say that anymore. But at least they'll end the year with Lucas Giolito and his 9 ERA.

Coming Tomorrow- I really thought he was cooked. I really did. And yet here he is, trying to keep his team in the playoff race.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Padres

 

The San Diego Padres had the best trade deadline in all of baseball and people were still surprised that they made it to the NLCS.

I mean, you get one of the best hitters in the game in Soto, one of the best closers in the game in Hader, and one of the best surprise utility heroes in baseball in Drury. They made all the best moves, got rid of Voit and Hosmer, and and strengthened their team to do what they couldn't do in 2020 and take down the Dodgers.

...and then the Phillies caught them with their pants down and took 'em out just when they became the alphas.

Still a hell of a year for the Padres. With Machado, Soto, Tatis and Bogaerts all slated to run this team in 2023, the plan is for this dominance to last even longer, and to be a menace to the rest of the league, and the rest of the NL West, for the remainder of the decade. Easier said than done, yes, but this year was a step in the right direction.

What's funny is that as the latest A.J. Preller gamble succeeded, the last survivor of the first-ever A.J. Preller gamble from 2015, Will Myers, played what is likely his last game in San Diego this year. Myers, a prospect with both Kansas City and Tampa Bay, moved to a third two-name city and made a name for himself as a trusty power hitter even as the Padres' other acquisitions, like Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Matt Kemp, all left. This season, though injury-curtailed, was still an improvement, as Myers hit .261 with 41 RBIs and 7 homers in 77 games. Myers will be 32 next year, and still has plenty of promise for teams looking for one last power bat.

2023 Prediction: MIKE FRANCESCA: WHY METS MADE BONEHEAD DECISION SIGNING MYERS

Though Austin Nola had a stronghold on the catching position for the Padres, Jorge Alfaro was still a wily backup, even though he's nowhere near what the Marlins figured they were getting. Alfaro hit .246 with 63 hits and 40 RBIs. Strangely, though, he made no postseason appearances for the team, and has already been let go.

2023 Prediction: ...MIKE FRANC-no, not the Mets. But somebody signs him as a backup, probably someone like Cleveland or Chicago or something, and he does a decent enough job.

The Padres' Mike Clevinger adventures should be its own lesson in A.J. Preller's appetite. They trade for him knowing he bypassed COVID regulations to party in Chicago, then get maybe 5 2020 starts out of him before he gets injured. Then they re-sign him, KNOWING that he will miss all of 2021. So they pay the guy to stay at home for a year with the hope that he does well for the team in 2022. So how was Mike Clevinger's 2022? Uhh...he went 7-7 with a 4.23 ERA and 91 Ks in 22 games. And then he got killed in both his postseason starts, leaving the Phils series with an infinite ERA. Ironically, he leaves the Padres to go and party in Chicago again, though I think the COVID regulations are looser now.

2023 Prediction: The White Sox already want comeback seasons from Lynn and Giolito, the latter against all odds considering he was tacking. I think Clevinger's gonna escape their reach and have a swell year, regardless of whether or not the Sox do.

Josh Hader was already having a weaker year in Milwaukee before he was dealt to San Diego. So, again, Preller shouldn't have been surprised when Hader fell apart in August, with a 7.31 ERA and only 7 saves. The good news, and the more important news going forward for the Padres, is that Hader's postseason numbers were peak Hader. In 5 appearances he gave up 1 hit, no earned runs, struck out 10 and saved 4 games, including 3 against LA and 1 against the eventual NL Champs. 

2023 Prediction: I think he's back to normal next year. 35-to-40 saves, low ERA, LA's gonna be cursing him out.

And then there's Brandon Drury, who had a surprise triumph of a season in Cincinnati, then comes to SD and returns to normal, hitting .238 with 28 RBIs and 8 homers in 46 games. Not awful, but not quite what he was doing in Cincinnati. He was better in the postseason, especially in the NLCS, as he bat .400 with 6 hits including a very important home run against the Phils.

2023 Prediction: A lot of teams could use a guy like Drury. I've already done the Mets joke a couple times but Mike might actually dig this move. 

Tomorrow, the team that beat them.

The Drury is Still Out

 

I'll give the Reds this. They've won 8 of their last 12 games. Before that, they were 3-22. Now they're 11-26. That's...better. Not terrific, not playoff-quality, but better than they were.

A few things happened in the last 12 games. For one thing, Hunter Greene no-hit the Pirates, Art Warren walked a guy home and nobody on the Reds could score a run. Additionally, people who know how to start games came up; Connor Overton has been the best of the rookie call-ups so far, with a 1.82 ERA in 4 starts, and Luis Castillo, while still not great, knows how to make himself look good statistically even if he gets lit up. 

The Reds have also emphasized the players nobody thought anything of who are playing incredibly. Alexis Diaz has been lights out in relief, the Reds are flirting with making him the closer. Brandon Drury was hitting well off the bench, the Reds have given him the starting 2B gig and have moved Moustakas to a DH-3B role. Colin Moran had a hot series a week ago, he's DHing more. And cheap-pickups like Moran and Drury lead the team in RBIs with 21 and 22 respectively. Tommy Pham isn't doing too bad either, though he's nowhere near Cardinals/Rays numbers.

And the Reds have also made sure that the homegrown talent that they do have left isn't going to get poached immediately. Of the original starters intact, the one having the best season is Tyler Stephenson, who is hitting .329, has 20 RBIs, and is proving what happens when the Reds start him everyday instead of stagnate him with Tucker Barnhart or Curt Casali. Some of the other hangers-on, like Moose and Naquin, are doing alright, but not great.

Otherwise, the Reds have become a revolving door for talent not good enough for most other rosters. Albert Almora, Matt Reynolds, Aramis Garcia and Hunter Strickland have crucial roles with this team. J.T. Riddle, Robert Dugger, Buck Farmer and, ultimately, 2019 hero Aristedes Aquino, have failed to make enough of an impact to stick around. And when you're not good enough for the 2022 Reds...oh my.

I hope the rest of the Reds' season works like this May stretch. A good run of wins here and there, not a ton of bloodloss, heroes and guys that get the job done. I'd hate for it to be all depressing stuff for them.

Coming Tonight: One of the few 2021 starters left in Oakland.

Are You Happ-y Now?

Well...it depends...

The Yankees did make a smart decision in dealing for J.A. Happ, in exchange for two guys, Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney, who didn't fit into the overall picture of this year. They needed pitching, and they needed someone who could go 6 innings without getting clobbered, and J.A. Happ is definitely that kind of pitcher, especially up against teams like Boston (who we NEED to get back against)

But what worries me is J.A. Happ's ERA, which was high in the 4.50 zone, even as he got the ASG gig. He definitely earned a fan following in Toronto, and he was rightfully leading the rotation this year, but at 35, his dominance and consistency has every right to be called into question. His best years were in the middle part of this decade, with Seattle and Toronto, and also his stellar rookie season in 2009. I worry that, despite his all-star start to the season, J.A. Happ's tenure in New York may not be indicative of his prime years.

Again, this is J.A. Happ we're talking about here, so I could be wrong. And yes, he is better than the alternative we have for a fifth starter. But...I'm just a little concerned. Hopefully he'll prove me wrong.

Thinking Critically About Diamondbacks in October

Okay, so the Diamondbacks, barring catastrophe, are headed to the playoffs. They're a few games ahead of the Rockies, 5 games ahead of anyone else competing for the Wild Card, and...okay, 20 games behind the Dodgers, but that's not the point of this. The POINT of this...is how are the Diamondbacks going to fare in the playoffs?

First of all, will they even win the Wild Card game? I'd say this is likely, because they'll probably have the advantage, the park, and they have more pristine pitchers to choose from than, say, Colorado or Milwaukee. Again, catastrophe could happen, but let's for the sake of this post say they get through.

They're probably going to have to play the 1st seed...which would put them right there against the Dodgers. So let's ask ourselves, SERIOUSLY...could the Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers?

...well...

Oh, I'm actually putting thought into this. It's easy to just take this as a 'Dodgers in 4' kind of thing, but we have other aspects, like momentum, field advantage, injuries, and slumps, to account for. I mean, if the Dodgers roll into the postseason exactly how they've been playing right now, the D-Backs are toast. So far this season, the Dodgers are 8-5 against the D-Backs, and they'd probably crush the D-Backs if things stay exactly the same.

But...I can't say they'd do it in 4.

The Diamondbacks have been surprisingly fantastic this year, with a full, developed lineup and a surprisingly scary rotation. They've been building this whole year, and have accumulated a pretty fantastic team. The million dollar question, though, is whether or not this team will be good enough to take down the Dodgers, and if they'll have built up enough momentum to take them out in the NLDS.

I'm not gonna say outright 'no' or 'god have mercy' or anything, but I'll say that people should give the Diamondbacks more credit. They could be very sneaky in the next month or so.

Coming Tonight: The outfielder who's brought a host of momentum and a ton of hits to the Bronx.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2016: Diamondbacks

Well, about 8 months after I thought I'd be posting it, here is a custom of one of the biggest 2015 offseason moves- Shelby Miller as a Diamondback...

Man, it sure is a shame that not only did the D-Backs tank under the pressure of the fans' expectations...but Miller did as well, having his worst season to date, and completely imploding in Phoenix. I hope better seasons are in the cards, but it's not looking good.

At least they had Patrick Corbin, who, while not absolutely perfect, still did well enough to keep the rotation afloat. In all honesty, between Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke and Corbin, the D-Backs had three solid pitching seasons...but marred by generally un-solid numbers as well.

The D-Backs had a number of rookies pop up this season and try to save the squad, even when it was kind of imploding in on itself. Brandon Drury was one of them, and he did a pretty commendable job.

Chris Herrmann was the other, as he provided another catching option, aside from offense-prone Welington Castillo.

The D-Backs were a solid disappointment in 2016, but will probably do a few more things right in 2017, now that they have the opportunity to step back and breathe.

Coming Tomorrow- The 'WE ALMOST HAD IT' 2016 Los Angeles Dodgers.