The Wrong Kind of History

 

In my lifetime, I have a few different standards for ineptitude. The 2002-2003 Tigers is in there, probably the 2000s Devil Rays and Pirates, most recently the 2023 Athletics. Teams can be bad. Teams can rebuild specifically to be good in the future, but in order to do that they have to be bad.  And so it's understandable when a team has to tank, but usually they're...somewhat passable at times. Usually they have some strong moments or have a rare game where things come together.

The 2024 White Sox are a different animal entirely. I can say I remember the period in the mid-2010s when the White Sox weren't great, but even then they had people like Alexei Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. This team wishes they had that degree of success. This team's best player, Garrett Crochet, is the baseball equivalent of a ticking timebomb. He's throwing really well, he's capable of great starts, but because he's never thrown a full season he could get injured at any second, and seeing as he's the last good player on this damned team, that really shouldn't happen. His ERA's down to 3.61, he's 6-10, he's got 188 Ks, he's slowed down exponentially, for a reason. 

So the brunt of the work has been passed to fellow veteran Chris Flexen. With Seattle and Colorado, Flexen was a serviceable, if limited, starting option. All he's been tasked to do in Chicago is eat innings and keep things moving. Unfortunately, his last 20 appearances have resulted in White Sox losses, even if the loss hasn't always specifically been Flexen's. It just means that either he's failed to get through games without blowing up, or he's done alright enough for himself and the bullpen's blown it. He only has 2 wins this season, and a 5.36 ERA. And yet...it seems, by default, Flexen has the third-highest WAR of any active player on the White Sox. Luis Robert is on this team, and he's not doing statistically as well as Chris Flexen and his 14 losses. How is that even possible??

The White Sox are beyond a punchline at this point. Since Grady Sizemore's come onboard, the Sox are 3-19. Last night, in Baltimore, they were already losing 0-4, and then on a routine flyout by Eloy Jimenez, who seems to have gotten out easy, three infielders misplayed the ball, resulting in even more runs and bleeding. As Orioles broadcaster Kevin Brown put it, 'the White Sox have just gone full White Sox', which means this team's ineptitude now owes itself to specific vernacular. For years, the '62 Mets have been the go-to punchline for a terrible team, and now it just might be the 2024 White Sox. I have no idea what can even be salvaged from this team, or what can be built upon for 2025.

That's the frightening part. Next year's team might not be much better, because the whole rebuilding thing that was supposed to result in prospects coming into their own...hasn't been working out. Ky Bush didn't work in the majors. Oscar Colas still doesn't work in the majors. Prelander Berroa, a former Mariners can't miss prospect, is absolutely missing. So there's no progress on the actual rebuilding part of this plan. All they're doing is tanking, because that's all they know how to do right now.

The current White Sox experience is extremely depressing. It may not get any more exciting anytime soon. But hopefully it won't continue to be as bad as it is right now, because...yeesh. 

Coming Tonight: An infielder for a Chicago team that's doing much better. 

Who's Left?

 

It's weird looking at the Opening Day lineup for the Marlins now, because it just looks like a team that doesn't even exist anymore. It feels like it could have been from last year. Oh, remember when Josh Bell, Avisail Garcia, Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Rogers and Nick Gordon were on this team? Yeah, it was just a couple months ago. And it didn't work.

Right now, some of the only remaining Marlins from the April iteration of this team include Jesus Sanchez, who has 17 home runs and 51 RBIs, Nick Fortes, who wasn't exactly being relied upon for his bat anyhow, Jake Burger, who at the very least will finish with a 25+ homer year, and Edward Cabrera, who's been really strong in his last few starts. Everything else has been filled by replacement players, rookies and anyone who needed a job. There are some promising young guys on this team, like Valente Bellozo, Griffin Conine and Connor Corby, but next year the Marlins will likely rival the White Sox in terms of pure ineptitude. 

But, just so we have this for science, let's see how some of the people who left the Marlins this year are doing:

Josh Bell: As a sturdy fill-in for Christian Walker, Bell definitely has his mojo back, hitting .283 with 4 homers and 15 RBIs since coming over. 

Emmanuel Rivera: In only a week with the Baltimore Orioles, the former extra infield piece is hitting .286 with 5 RBIs and a homer. For a backup infielder for a competitor, that ain't bad, and he could factor into the postseason roster.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Chisholm has taken like a fish to water in New York, hitting .333 with 15 RBIs and 9 homers in 24 games. The extra spark that seemed to be missing from his Marlins numbers is all over these Yanks stats.

Bryan de la Cruz: It hasn't been as pretty as some of these other guys, but with the Pirates de la Cruz has, at the very least, been a nice source of power, with 12 RBIs and a homer in 26 games.

Luis Arraez: Regardless of his thumb issue, the veteran contact hitter still leads the NL in hits with 171, and in average with .310. The Padres will be using his effortless hitting abilities heading into a likely playoff scenario.

Christian Bethancourt: After hitting .159 in 38 games in Miami, Bethancourt somehow went on a tear in Chicago, hitting .387 with 3 homers and 15 RBIs. No one knows how this has happened. Not even Bethancourt.

Trevor Rogers: eh...we can skip him.

Tanner Scott: In 16 games with the Padres, Scott has a 2.40 ERA with 17 Ks and 2 saves. It's a solid progression of an already excellent season for the former Marlins chief relief specialist.

Bryan Hoeing: Similarly, the other reliever in that deal has a 1.13 ERA and 13 Ks in 11 games. So they did well all around.

A.J. Puk: This is the most insane one to me. Cause Puk struggled in the first half, both as a starter and just in general. So he heats up after returning to relief work. The Marlins trade him to Arizona. And once he gets there, he sports a 0.61 ERA in 17 games, meaning he's given up ONE EARNED RUN in that time, plus 22 strikeouts. This is incredible. All it took was getting out of Miami.

I really hope the Marlins can improve as a full unit next year, because this just got depressing after a while. The White Sox at least have Garrett Crochet. The Marlins have...like...people coming back from injuries, but...will they WANT to?

Coming Tomorrow- We're waiting to see if this season will have a twenty-game winner, but we definitely have a guy who's pitched in 20 straight losses.

A New Junior Jay Has Appeared

 

It's funny, with the Jays not making the playoffs this year and pawning off Jansen, Kikuchi and Biggio, it gave the idea that the Junior Jays era was coming to an end, and that the dynasty that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were trying to build didn't exactly pan out. And yet one of the biggest rookie sensations in Toronto in the last month has been Will Wagner, a contact machine who, get this, happens to be the son of Astros closer extraordinaire Billy Wagner. 

Yep, that's right, yet another second generationer, and yet another son of a truly great player. And this one's really good too. So here we go again, I suppose...

Will Wagner, in his first 17 games, is hitting .345 with 20 hits, 8 RBIs and 2 home runs. The hope is that Wagner will become the everyday 2nd baseman over time, but...y'see, that's what people said about Davis Schneider last year when he went on a similar tear. Schneider, for the record, is hitting under .200 and playing left field for the most part. I wanna believe that Wagner keeps it up, but considering that his main competition is Spencer Horwitz, who also had a hot streak but has cooled down immensely, who's to even say at this point. It's nice that second generationers are still leading the narrative in Toronto. I think about the fact that the Jays originally had Griffin Conine as well, and traded him to Miami, which, to be fair, makes for a sweeter outcome anyhow. There's probably other future second generation players in the Jays' system at this rate. Wouldn't shock me is all.

It is helpful that as all this has elapsed with Wagner, the original second-generation Jay is holding court still. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is turning in a classic season this year, hitting .324 with 27 home runs and 89 RBIs. I think for a while we were playing the game of 'where's the old Vlad Jr.', but he's turned things around and is back to what he was doing in 2021, and in spades. I have no idea if the Jays are gonna hold onto him after the season or trade him to a competitor, but if they do this'll be a great sendoff for the slugger in Toronto. I know they loved the guy there, and I know he'll do well wherever he lands.

But, of course, if Vlad does leave does this mean the rebuild is on? Does this mean it's gonna be on people like Will Wagner, Leo Jimenez and Joey Loperfido to play more crucial roles in this team, just a year after coming up? Are they gonna get a gradual descent, sort of like they did in 2018 [when I was in town], where they had enough good players to not completely fall on their ass but weren't exactly competitive anymore? They've got options, and they could look like a variety of things next year. I don't think they'll be fully competitive, though. Unless....something big develops.

Coming Tonight: A rare power producer still left in Miami.

Fit Better in Concept

 

Bob Melvin seemed like the perfect match for the Giants, especially after a few too many years of Gabe Kapler's ill-fated saber metric tactics. As the Rangers found out last year, sometimes just getting a veteran, trusted manager who works well with the system is a good enough way to jumpstart something. And yet here we are, the Giants in 4th place behind Mike Shildt and Torey Luvullo. And probably not making the playoffs. A lot like Bruce Bochy in Texas, there was never a feeling of 'okay we'll get this guy and then we'll immediately be a playoff contender', but...I have to imagine year one was supposed to go better than this.

Of the four big contracts signed prior to the year, only one is guaranteed to still impact the team in the coming seasons, and it's the guy that only played for like a month this year. Jorge Soler is already gone, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell could both be gone by the end of the year, and while Jung-Hoo Lee will still be here in 2025, there's no guarantee how much of a factor he'll be given his limited performance this year. I mean, it'd be nice if Lee was something, but all we have to go buy is a month and a half of work and he was hitting like .262. Chapman, however, is having a fantastic year, with 68 RBIs and 20 homers, but he could choose to go somewhere else given the halted trajectory of the team.

Perhaps the best elements of this Giants team have been the homegrown, low-budget, low-key guys who've begun to repopulate the team. Heliot Ramos, Ryan Fitzgerald, Patrick Bailey, now Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong. I'd even throw Ryan Walker in there. Though Walker made his breakthrough last year as a swingman with relief perks, Walker has been the best relief specialist in San Francisco this year. In 67 games he's 8-3 with a 1.92 ERA, 92 strikeouts. Going into the year people really thought Camilo Doval would keep the momentum going, and despite 22 saves he really hasn't. Walker may not be a born closer, and he may be better off as this setup man type, but he's an impressive, consistent hurler who hopefully will be in this kind of condition for the next few years. 

After this season, the Giants are likely gonna be parting with a lot of key pieces of this team, at least from a contractual standpoint. Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores, Mark Canha, probably Snell and Chapman. The hope is that this team is far enough along in their development that they won't need to rely specifically upon contracts to make themselves competitors soon enough. The way it's looking, they have a 1B bat in LeMonte Wade, they have starting depth, they have Brett Wisely if Chapman leaves, and now they have Grant McCray as an OF piece. This team could benefit from a lower key year to just come around unified, and hopefully they'll be allowed this. 

I'd love to think the Giants could just put this year behind them and compete again in 2025. I don't know if it'll happen. But parts of this team have got me excited.

Coming Tonight: Now that Danny Jansen's in Boston, this guy has no safety net. Which is a nice time for his average to rise, I guess. 

Bido Shuffle

 

It is entirely possible that the Oakland Athletics do lose 22 more games and finish their last season in the Bay Area with an 100-loss year. I don't think it's going to happen, but it very well could. I think everyone's prepared for it, especially the fans, and especially John Fisher. And those last two walk-off losses against the Rangers would certainly indicate that it is something that could happen. But...the weird thing about this A's team, and this is something that I could tell when I saw them play the Phillies...they're actually close to good this year.

Like, last year you couldn't point to anyone on the A's and go 'there is a foundational member of an A's regime'. Now, well you've got Brent Rooker, J.J. Bleday, Lawrence Butler, Mason Miller, Shea Langeliers, hell even J.P. Sears looks like he may end up with a positive W/L ratio this year. These guys are people I can point to are going 'yes, those are Oakland Athletics star players'. That wasn't there last year. Multiple A's have sported three homer games. Langeliers and Butler. One was against the hometown team. Brent Rooker is very close to a 35+ homer year, as well as a 100+ RBI year. 

And you can also tell the pitching staff is up to something because, while you can't exactly point to a concrete starting five of the future, you're seeing a whole unit of people that can hop in and start while also providing long relief assurance. Right now they're going with Sears-Estes-Spence-Bido-Ginn, and while, yes, that leaves out people like Ross Stripling, Joe Boyle and Hogan Harris...there's a reason they're still on the major league roster. Harris has been a great swingman this year. Boyle I think just needs some shorter outings to refine his stuff, cause he could be great. Meanwhile, Osvaldo Bido has been a big surprise as a starter, as he's gone 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA in 8 starts, a refreshing turn of events for a guy the Pirates gave up on last year. Bido isn't the out-and-out phenom that somebody like Miller or Estes is, but he's very efficient and he's a piece they could build on going forward. Same with Spence and Estes, two people who've been great as starters this year and can be useful even when there's not room for them. And J.T. Ginn already seems to be impressing people in the majors, and might be a solid starting option going forward. 

Y'see this? Answers. Actual answers going into the following season. Actual ways this team could improve over the coming years, even if they're not in Oakland. This was not here last year. Against all odds, the Athletics improved, figured out what worked, and are building something slowly. I don't know if they'll still have a lot of this by the time the Vegas stadium opens, but hopefully they'll bring some momentum with them as they leave the Coliseum. 

Coming Tonight: The Giants have both Rogers brothers, and somehow this guy is the reliever who's turning the most heads this year.

100mph and a Complicated Legacy

 

I think about how people are going to talk about Aroldis Chapman someday. One of the hardest throwing pitchers in history, with enough 100 mph fastballs to stifle years of lineups, two World Series rings with two different teams that had been waiting years for a ring, 7 time All-Star with two different teams that made playoff runs, and 1232 strikeouts and counting. No one can deny the ability and the ferocity that Chapman came to play with for years. But there are just too many character flaws that prevent Chapman from being a truly great player.

I'll never completely get over the fact that he was supposed to sign with the Dodgers, had all of that ready, and then an assault allegation emerges, at which point LA rescinds the deal, and the Yankees saw the opportunity when nobody else was buying and jumped on it. It was a poor taste move then, and it's a poor taste move now, and even as he had a great year between New York and Chicago it was hard for me to enjoy it knowing what he was doing in his spare time. And even as he became a Yankee hero and an everyday closer, there was still this tinge of uncertainty. It culminated in Chapman taking a down year in 2022 and using it as an excuse to lay back in Miami and not report. Everything Chapman has done since has been in spite of his volatility and his unsuitability. 

And the thing is, at least with someone like Wander Franco, Julio Urias or Domingo German, something can be proven and it can directly lead to a suspension or a leave of absence. With Chapman, there never really was something like that, and so he kept skirting on by. Which makes it even wilder that both Chapman and German are both employed by the Pittsburgh Pirates at the moment. Along with Jalen Beeks, they make up the current 'We Don't Care if Our Bullpen Pisses People off' initiative the Bucs seem to be going for.

Chapman, to his credit, isn't doing too badly this year. He's been one of the most reliable bullpen pieces for the Pirates, and has 84 Ks and a 3.48 ERA this year. It's not quite 2012 levels of dominance, but he's still capable of hitting 100 miles an hour and making someone regret going for it. He's very much treating this current era of play as the 'comeback arc', as he can prove his worth as a pitcher by providing steady work wherever he ends up. I don't know how long this is gonna go before he does something untoward again, but I sincerely hope he makes an effort not to mess up again.

Speaking of messing up, the Pirates have taken a team that could have snuck into the playoff picture and completely diluted any chance of competition. They're now last in the division, 10 games below .500 and have lost some really easy matches recently. They will get out of this year having Paul Skenes and Jared Jones and their great rookie campaigns, but you can't deny that even in the 5 months he's been around, Skenes has already gone through a full arc of falling out of love with this team. That is not an attitude you want to foster. Eventually there needs to be some sort of release, or else it's just gonna be upsetting the whole time. And so hopefully the Pirates can make something work for 2025, with Endy Rodriguez back and less of a garbled quality to the offense. 

But again, like Chapman, you can never tell how long it'll be before they ruin the goodwill.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Pirates pitcher who's finding more success on arguably a much worse team. 

August 2024 in Review [feat. Kerry Carpenter]

 

August of 2024 began with players in new uniforms, and ended with rookies shaking up the league. A lot happened, and a lot of the events of this month clarified the overall picture of this season as it stands heading into its climax. There's a lot to cover this month, even if on the surface it was a month where both my teams did really well and stayed atop the leaderboards. 

But first, let's look back at the 5 predictions I made for August back when the month started:

1. There is one specific team that is immediately aided by their trade deadline strategy. You are referring to the Kansas City Royals. This team has caught fire specifically thanks to adding Paul deJong, Hunter Harvey, Michael Lorenzen and Lucas Erceg. They didn't go for game-changing additions, they went with people they needed, and that's made them a force again.

2. I'll be specific for a change here: the return of several Rangers pitchers brings them right back into the race and spells doom for at least one AL West competitor. Well, so much for me being specific. Admittedly this was wishful thinking on my part. 

3. A big team that had a tough July hits a second wind. The Royals, yes, and I'd also put the Braves in this category because as it stands right now they're making it very difficult for the Mets to grasp a spot. Possibly the D-Backs and Padres too.

4. At least one more kick in the crotch for A's fans before the team leaves next month. I suppose Mark Canha's tearful collecting of the dirt from the last Bay Series counts here.

5. Something really silly happens around waiver wire deadline season. Yeah, wasn't really a factor this year. 

A lot of swings and misses for me this month. So, to that end, let's talk about 5 things from August 2024 that no one could have predicted:

1. Shohei Ohtani notches a 40-40 season with plans for more. So...people probably could have predicted Ohtani would hit a lot of homers this year. Kinda what he does. Maybe less due to rehabbing. But Ohtani becoming a 40-steals guy while not being able to throw? Like, that's unlocked a new level of greatness. Y'all remember when we weren't sure if we'd be able to like Ohtani due to the whole Ippei thing, which turned out to not really be a factor anyway? Well now he's surprisingly a 40-40 guy with...the opportunity to go 50-50 if he stays hot, which is always a possibility with Ohtani. And remember, this is a DOWN YEAR for this guy.

2. Bobby Witt Jr. becomes a superstar. I think a lot of people knew this would come eventually, but perhaps not to this extent this soon. Witt has been having the kind of season that, if Aaron Judge didn't exist, would easily garner him an MVP. So far he's looking at a batting title, with a .341 average, along with leading the league in hits with 185, not far from 200 at all. And then he's also looking at his first 100+ RBI year, his first 30+ home run year, basically his first OMG season. The way things are going, it may not be his last. A lot like Corbin Carroll last year, Witt is making the Royals a postseason factor almost singlehandedly. In fact,

3. The AL Central is not a runaway. For most of the year, the Cleveland Guardians had this division locked up and sealed. And then the Twins went on a massive streak, followed by the Royals. Towards the end of the month, the whole division came down to one or two games, with the Guardians-Royals series nearly flipping the race entirely. As it stands now, the Guardians have reclaimed a 2.5 game lead, thanks to Framber Valdez slowing down the Royals the other day, and the Royals and Twins are close enough to potentially make August exciting.

4. The NL West isn't a runaway either. The Dodgers may have pulled back ahead due to some activated players, but as they stumbled mid month there was a chance the Padres and D-Backs could lap them. San Diego had an incredible August run, and while it's slowed a ton they've still won 77 and are chasing a playoff spot. As are the D-Backs, still embroiled in an LA series and trying to eat away at the Dodgers' five game lead. If two of these three teams play each other in October, it's likely gonna be a bloodthirsty affair. 

5. The Rangers have no shot at competing. As you can tell back there, I genuinely thought the Rangers were gonna come back, a lot like they did last year, and reclaim some momentum and make the AL West regret it. That hasn't happened. The rotation injuries, as well as too many mediocre seasons from great players, have landed the Rangers 10 games below .500. If Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Cody Bradford, Josh Jung and Tyler Mahle hadn't been hurt for the majority of the season, maybe this team could have accomplished something. For now, all they can do is kiss it up to the Bruce Bochy nonconsecutive pattern and hope they show up next year.

And on the other end of that, 5 things from August 2024 that a lot of people could have predicted.

1. Rumors of Corbin Carroll's demise have been greatly exaggerated. It just took a few months, but now he's back to 2023 levels, and he's looking to at least notch 25 homers this year. Perhaps he'll heat up in October as well. 

2. What's that? Judge is chasing 60 again?? The man has 51 home runs and 123 RBIs, and there's a month left to play. I am consistently amazed at the degree of power this man is capable of, and I hope he continues to amaze me.

3. The Tigers start figuring things out once they don't have to give an active roster spot to Javier Baez. With Kerry Carpenter back, and hitting, and Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney and Parker Meadows up and surging, I think the Tigers are figuring out what the future of this team looks like...and it may not involve Baez. 

4. Putting Taijuan Walker out there every five days isn't a successful long-term strategy for the Phillies. It just genuinely sucks that it took this long for them to figure it out. Tyler Phillips is clearly the better option, because he's had MLB success this year, even if he lost it a little. Walker was gonna be a bullpen guy come October anyway, this is just cutting out the middleman.

5. The Orioles trading for Trevor Rogers was a bad idea. Oh, what, Rogers immediately gets injured and the two guys you gave up become fixtures for the Marlins? Who could have predicted that?? Oh, EVERYONE?? Come on, man... If the O's lose again in the early playoffs it'll be because of moves like this.

Here, for the record, are the 5 most important players of August 2024:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
4. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
5. Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

And finally, as we roll into the season's final month, 5 bold predictions for September 2024:

1. Jacob deGrom finally appears and goes 'hey, what'd I miss?'

2. Even though it doesn't look like it right now, a wild card race comes with a great deal of last-second suspense.

3. The A's farewell to Oakland is met with some avoidable controversy

4. One last rookie preview of 2025 for the road.

5. Judge beats his prior mark.

That was a nice, exciting August, now let's bring it home.