Right now, the Phillies are entangled in yet another weekend series with the Braves, trying to creep up on their division lead and take control in the final weeks of the season. The Phillies are likely playoff-bound, but want the higher seed [probably 3 it's looking like] in order to play from the upper hand for at least some of the postseason. Now...I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but the Phils are much more successful in this regime as a wild card team than as a team that takes a first round bye. Last year, they tried to circumvent this by holding an open practice to stay hot in between the bye. It did not work. The Dodgers crushed them anyway. Meanwhile, each time they got in as a wild card team, they made it to an NLCS, and at one point even won.
So part of me's going 'well...why do you WANT the higher seed? You're better working from behind anyway.' Last year, their 'working from ahead' NLDS was against the Dodgers, who's whole thing is they're never behind anybody. You're better as a spoiler than an alpha, be the spoiler. Let the Braves take the division and get clobbered by the six seed. That means Phils-Cubs is looking more and more like a certainty, but the Phils have the better pitching by a mile.
The issue is getting everybody to hit, though, as it has been all season. Aside from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Phils offense has been very variable, without many sure-things. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are both having down seasons despite some decent enough production. Brandon Marsh WAS having a nice season, then seriously fell off after the ASG break and is now hitting .266. Justin Crawford is still not the guy that was advertised, and is still acclimating to the bigs, coming into some contact prowess. Realmuto's hitting, but nowhere near as consistently as he used to. Edmundo Sosa and Derek Hill are nice diversions but they're not the stars.
It's been nice to see Luis Arraez hitting .300 once again though, and he might go for another NL batting title. His numbers aren't as incredible as they were in San Francisco though, as statistically he's an average hitter and fielder again. What he remains is a difficult out, and he's got 41 hits and 16 RBIs in 35 games, pretty understandable for Arraez. He's also the exact kind of fun character for this club, as Harrison Bader was last year; there was a pitch during the Astros series that got so close to him that the 'AY YI YIIIII!' could be heard from the Linc. I think the Phils are still stronger with him, and I trust everyone else at their new positions more than I did at their old ones [Bohm at 1st, Stott at 3rd, it all works out].
Some of the other worrying aspects of this team are coming alive as well. Aaron Nola's had some beautiful starts lately, and now has his ERA closer to 4.50, which is about where he should be considering. The bullpen's improved, and Tim Mayza, Alex McFarlane and Jonathan Bowlan are doing what they're supposed to. Edmundo's had more and more clutch moments in recent months, and has remained a really valuable part of this team. And yeah, with how integral Bryce Harper has been to this team, I don't see how anyone would think of him as truly past his peak.
I think the Phillies have a good team this year, and could do some damage next month. I also see them falling victim to the same pitfalls that usually do them in, but...if they're in as a wild card team and can keep the momentum going, they have more of a shot than if they have the bye.
Coming Tomorrow- Big hitter for a team that's, despite being kinda good, closing up shop pretty much.
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